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202. From Silicon Valley to Shenzhen: Dollar Exposures in Chinese Fintech
- Author:
- Michael B Greenwald
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- In the post-9/11 era, Washington has waged innovative campaigns against terrorism finance, sanctions evasion, and money laundering. Leveraging America’s heavyweight status in the international financial system, the United States Treasury has isolated and bankrupted rogue regimes, global terrorists, and their enablers. As financial technology transforms global business, the traditional financial system faces new competition across a suite of offerings, ranging from brokerage services to peer to peer lending. In no area is this clearer than in mobile payments, where a global hegemon lies ready to exercise its weight, and it is not the United States
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Affairs, and Financial Markets
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
203. The China Tariff Mess
- Author:
- Martin S. Feldstein
- Publication Date:
- 09-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- The cost to US consumers and firms imposed by tariffs on Chinese imports is not large relative to the gain that would be achieved if the US succeeds in persuading China to stop illegally taking US firms’ technology. But the Trump administration should state that this is the goal, and that the tariffs will be removed when it is met.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Political Economy, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
204. The United States and China— A Relationship Adrift: The New War in Trade, Investment, and High Technology
- Author:
- Asia Society Policy Institute
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- HISTORY TEACHES US THAT PICKING WHEN ONE AGE ENDS AND ANOTHER BEGINS is a tricky business. None of us has the powers of reflection, perception, or anticipation to identify when certain tipping points of historical significance are reached. And when we reach such conclusions, it’s usually with the full benefit of 20/20 hindsight, which for those of us working in the rarefied world of contemporary public policy is not particularly useful
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
205. The Islamic State and Drones: Supply, Scale, and Future Threats
- Author:
- Don Rassler
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- The Islamic State is a group known for doing things a bit differently, for its capacity for innovation, and for its many ‘firsts.’ Two of those ‘firsts’ happened within months of each other. The first occurred in October 2016 when the group used a bomb-laden drone to kill, after the explosive hidden within the drone killed two Kurdish peshmerga soldiers who were investigating the device. Another ‘first’ happened in January 2017 when the Islamic State released a propaganda video that showed nearly a dozen examples of the group releasing munitions on its enemies from the air with a fair degree of accuracy via quadcopter drones it had modified. And it wasn’t long before the group’s bomb-drop capable drones would go on to kill, too.
- Topic:
- International Affairs and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
206. Exploding Stereotypes: Characteristics of Boko Haram’s Suicide Bombers
- Author:
- Jason Warner and Hilary Matfess
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- Since 2009, the Islamist group known as Boko Haram has ushered in a wave of violence across the Lake Chad Basin region of West Africa, at the intersection of Nigeria, Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. Among other tactics that it has employed during its reign of terror, the group has been noted for its use of suicide bombers. While the prevalence of suicide bombings has been duly recognized, little remains known about the broader arc of their existence and efficacy: What strategic and operational trends underlie Boko Haram’s use of suicide bombers, and how effective have they been at achieving their objectives? Just who are Boko Haram’s suicide bombers? Where are they deployed, what do they target, and how do different bomber demographics differ in their actions? More broadly, what does Boko Haram’s use of suicide bombers reveal about the past, present, and future of the terrorist group?
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
207. Turkish-German Relations From Conjunctural Cooperation to the Solution of Structural Issues
- Author:
- Zeliha Eliaçık
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- To the contrary of its relatively “new” relations with the United States of America, Turkey’s relations with the West have been established and continued via Europe since the period of the Ottoman Empire.1 The military alliance and cooperation initiated between Turkey and Germany in the late 19th century have gained a human dimension in the frame of the “Turkish Labor Force Agreement” signed upon the settlement of Turkish workers in Germany in the 20th century. Bilateral relations have been maintained without interruption despite occasional fluctuations in the intensity of these relations. Recently, the two countries have maintained closer ties as they both are affected by the U.S. sanctions and “trade wars.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Germany, and Global Focus
208. Natural partners? Europe, Japan and security in the Indo-Pacific
- Author:
- Luis Simon
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Elcano Royal Institute
- Abstract:
- Europeans and Japanese are often described as ‘natural’ partners. As liberal democracies, market economies and close allies of the US, they have similar world views and share many interests. They also have a long history of cooperation, whose foundations go back to Japan’s embracing of modernisation and industrialisation in the late 19th century along European lines
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
209. Forty years of democratic Spain: Political, economic, foreign policy and social change, 1978-2018
- Author:
- William Chislett
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Elcano Royal Institute
- Abstract:
- Whichever way one looks at it, Spain has been profoundly transformed since the 1978 democratic Constitution that sealed the end of the 1939-75 dictatorship of General Francisco Franco, the victor of the three-year Civil War. Be it economically with, for example, the creation of significant number of multinationals or the world’s second-largest tourism industry in terms of visitors (81.8 million in 2017), politically with a vibrant democracy that ranks high in classifications, socially with the greatly improved status of women or in foreign policy –where Spain has reclaimed its place on the international stage–, the country bears no resemblance to what it was like 40 years ago. Over the period, per capita income at purchasing power parity increased fivefold and life expectancy at birth rose by almost 10 years. All the more remarkable is that the transition, guided by King Juan Carlos I, was achieved in the face of considerable adversity. It was not guaranteed from the outset to be successful: the Basque terrorist group ETA killed an average of 50 people a year in the first decade of democracy (and mounted assassination attempts in 1995 on both the King and the Prime Minister, José María Aznar), and Francoist officers staged a coup in 1981 in an attempt to turn back the clock. The economy, which was entering a period of recession, galloping inflation and rising unemployment, was also subjected to unprecedented competition after decades of protectionism. In the first three months of 1976 there were 17,731 cases of industrial action alone. Today’s problems, such as the very high jobless rate, particularly among young adults, acute income inequality, increased social exclusion, the illegal push for independence in Catalonia and corruption in the political class do not detract from the fact that Spain has enjoyed an unprecedented period of prosperity and stability over the past 40 years. Spain has achieved conditions that are similar –in some cases better– than in the rest of Western European nations, disproving the theory, still beloved in some quarters, of the country’s ‘exceptional nature’ or ‘anomaly’.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
210. Dead Man Walking: Time to Put the INF Treaty to Rest?
- Author:
- Ian Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- On 11-12 July 2018, the heads of state and government of the North Atlantic Alliance met in Brussels. Political and public attention centred almost exclusively on the Allies’ defence expenditure, the issue of spending 2% of national GDPs on defence, and President Donald Trump’s criticism of Canada and European nations. The political agenda of the summit, however, and the range of decisions taken there, was much broader and much more substantial. It was the third summit in a row since 2014 that dealt with NATO’s far-reaching and long-term adaptation to the fundamentally changed security environment since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the illegal occupation of Crimea, as well as the emergence of the terrorist organisation ISIL/Daesh. The Wales summit of 2014 adopted the Readiness Action Plan (RAP) as an initial response to Russia’s aggressive posture.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
211. Challenges of Real National Defence
- Author:
- Jonatan Vseviov
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
- Abstract:
- Jonatan Vesviov is the Estonian Ambassador to the US. Before this he worked in the Estonian Ministry of Defence for 10 years. He served as Director of the Policy Planning Department, the ministry’s representative in the Washington embassy, acting and later substantive Undersecretary for Defence Planning, and for two and a half years, Permanent Secretary. This decade saw tumultuous developments in the international situation—the Russian offensive against Georgia, intervention in Syria, the occupation and annexation of the Crimea and ongoing Russian aggression against Ukraine in the east of the country. Reorganisation within NATO to respond to Russian behaviour, part of which was the deployment of allied forces to the eastern border of the Alliance, also occurred during this period.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
212. The Citizens’ Opinion of the Police
- Author:
- François Lhoumeau
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Centre for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- The third round of the public opinion survey "The Citizens’ Opinion of the Police Force" was conducted in Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Kosovo, Macedonia and Serbia. The questionnaire based on which the public opinion survey was conducted was devised by the regional network POINTPULSE to provide answers concerning the citizens’ opinion of the police. The questionnaire included six groups of questions
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
213. Technology and National Security: The United States at a Critical Crossroads
- Author:
- James Kadtke
- Publication Date:
- 01-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
- Abstract:
- Rapid globalization of science and technology (S&T) capacity presents a serious and long-term risk to the military and economic security of the United States. To maintain U.S. preeminence, our domestic science and technology enterprise requires a new paradigm to make it more agile, synchronized, and globally engaged. U.S. technological competitiveness depends not only on research but also on legal, economic, regulatory, ethical, moral, and social frameworks, and therefore requires the vision and cooperation of our political, corporate, and civil society leadership. Re-organizing our domestic S&T enterprise will be a complex task, but recommendations presented in this paper could be first steps on the path to maintaining our future technological security.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
214. A Process to Analyze Data from the Deployable Metering and Monitoring System Using United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon Data, with Recommendations from a Limited Dataset
- Author:
- Julie Sapp, Paige Rudin, Abby Lemert, and Michele Gardner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Abstract:
- The United Nations Department of Peace Keeping Operations (UNPKO) leads and supports the efforts of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) to maintain peace and provide humanitarian aid. With over 50 camps located in the country of Lebanon, the UNPKO is striving for energy efficiency to ensure day-to-day operations are using resources effectively. In 2017, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) conducted a study1 rooted in the UNPKO mission to maintain energy efficient camps by analyzing data from metering systems to develop technology insertion recommendations.
- Topic:
- Basic Data
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
215. The Razumkov Center Newsletter
- Author:
- Razumkov Center
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- Judging from President’s latest statements on his readiness to capture Ukraine’s stable progress towards EU and NATO membership in the Preamble to the Constitution, we are to expect yet another session of “constitutional vivisection”. Moreover, it is very likely that the parliament and the president will finalise the long-term story of bidding farewell to the constitutional guarantees of parliamentary immunity. Also, one cannot write off a possible attempt to implement the currently semi-fictional idea of transitioning to a parliamentary form of government, again – by introducing corresponding amendments to the Constitution.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
216. The Razumkov Center Newsletter
- Author:
- Razumkov Center
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- In February of this year, Stanislav Shevchuk was elected the new Chairman of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU) at one of its sessions. Position of CCU Chairman has been vacant since 20 March 2017. This is when Yurii Baulin’s term has run out. On several occasions, elections of a new chairman were disrupted. In December 2017, they did not take place due to the lack of candidates. The responsibility of CCU Chairman, besides swearing in the newly elected president, is to organise the regular work of the Constitutional Court. We also expect the pressure on the new chairman to mount after the appointment of two new CCU judges on the president’s quota and the election of two more judges on the Verkhovna Rada’s quota.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
217. The Razumkov Center Newsletter
- Author:
- Razumkov Center
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- On 30 January 2018, in Kyiv, Razumkov Centre together with the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting and CEDOS think tank presented the annual 2017 global top think tanks rating (2017 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report). This report is issued since 2008 by the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program of the Lauder Institute, University of Pennsylvania (USA).
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
218. Sustaining Peace in Practice: Building on What Works
- Author:
- Youssef Mahmoud, David Connolly, and Delphine Mechoulan
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Prevention is generally viewed as a crisis management tool to address the destructive dynamics of conflict. The sustaining peace agenda challenges this traditional understanding of preventive action by shifting the starting point of analysis to what is still working in society—the positive aspects of resilience—and building on these.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
219. To Defeat Terrorism, Use 'People Power'
- Author:
- Maria J. Stephan and Leanne Erdberg
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- As governments and communities seek the right combination of methods to halt terrorism, one that we too often miss is nonviolent resistance. It’s not that we haven’t seen the power of protest movements that use mass marches, sit-ins, boycotts and other forceful but nonviolent tactics. To the contrary, people worldwide have been moved by watching such movements sweep aside the walls of apartheid, the tanks of dictators or the impunity of kleptocracies. But governments and civil society alike have failed to connect the dots—to promote nonviolent action that can help communities address grievances while absorbing the youth alienation upon which terrorist movements feed.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
220. Making Peace Among Afghans: Kabul's View
- Author:
- USIP
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Afghanistan’s government is focused on building consensus—both domestically and among states in the region—to support a peace process with the Taliban insurgency, according to the Afghan national security advisor, Hanif Atmar. The main challenges, he said, include continued support from Pakistan for the Taliban and an incremental recent Russian move toward immediate cooperation with the Taliban even without a peace process. Also, Atmar said, a web of disparate extremist groups is deploying increasing numbers of foreign fighters in his country.
- Topic:
- International Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
221. How the United Nations Can Harness 'People Power'
- Author:
- Maria J. Stephan
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- The United Nations has declared a priority this year to unify and strengthen its work in building peace—and U.N. bodies will meet in the next two months to advance that change. U.N. leaders have acknowledged that a vital element in peacebuilding is nonviolent, grassroots movements that can prevent violent conflict by providing ways for people to constructively address grievances, seek rights and advance justice. But as the United Nations aims to more efficiently promote peace, how prepared is it to actually work with the nonviolent grassroots movements that have proven to be peacebuilding’s most effective tool? The answer to that is unclear, but the U.N. system could take a few steps during and after its high-level meetings this spring to strengthen this neglected part of its peacebuilding strategy.
- Topic:
- United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
222. USIP’s Work on Violent Extremism
- Author:
- USIP
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade, transnational and deadly violent extremist movements—such as ISIS, Boko Haram, the Taliban, and al-Shabab—have risen out of instability and conflicts and repeatedly inflamed and perpetuated hostilities. These movements recruit followers and destabilize regions by harnessing agendas and exploiting grievances such as social marginalization, political exclusion, state repression, and lack of access to justice and resources.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
223. Perils of Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems Proliferation: Preventing Non-State Acquisition
- Author:
- Philip Chartoff
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Throughout the late 90s, Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda allegedly made numerous attempts to acquire nuclear material from illicit actors. Starting in 2004, Hezbollah has been deploying Iranian-made, military-grade drones for surveillance and engagement. Terrorist groups, illicit organisations, and other non-state actors have a long fascination with advanced weapons technologies. In the early 90s, the Japanese death cult Aum Shinrikyo pursued multiple avenues to develop chemical, nuclear and biological weapons, eventually succeeding in the creation and deployment of Sarin gas. Throughout the late 90s, Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda allegedly made numerous attempts to acquire nuclear material from illicit actors. Starting in 2004, Hezbollah has been deploying Iranian-made, military-grade drones for surveillance and engagement. Despite the relative success of less sophisticated weapons, and the substantial expense and difficulty of acquisition for more advanced systems, non-state actors continue to pursue advanced weapons for two significant reasons. For less funded, less powerful non-state actors, advanced weapons substantially increase the scale of the force they can wield against enemies—they promise to “level the playing field”. Advanced weapon systems also offer a significant reputational and symbolic benefit to non-state actors, as the ownership of such weapons confer a status limited to only a handful of powerful nations. States have long recognized these risks, and established numerous arms and export controls to restrict and regulate the transfer of massively destructive weapons. However, international efforts to restrict proliferation of such weapons are currently lagging behind the emergence of new, possibly as-destructive, technologies. In particular, the last few years have marked the rapid development of lethal autonomous weapons systems (LAWS). Considering their potential to escalate conflicts and inflict massive collateral damage, the international community has long been debating necessary restrictions on the implementation of autonomy in weapons systems, even considering a ban on fully-autonomous systems. However, such conversations have largely been limited to state use. The international community has been painfully slow to address the possible acquisition and use of LAWS by non-state actors.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Weapons, and Nonproliferation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
224. Business and Private Diplomacy:A Potential Catalyst for Sustainable Peace
- Author:
- Misha Nagelmackers-Voinov
- Publication Date:
- 07-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Long considered a natural partner for peace through economic diplomacy and bilateral trade agreements, business has increasingly become ignored or demonised. The private sector comprises a wide diversity of organisations and is the part of the economy that is not run by a state, but by individuals and companies for profit. Small businesses/micro-companies serve as a good starting point for a conflict resolution process because they often constitute the only form of economic activity in a conflict zone. MNCs have a range of options to respond to conflict, but cannot openly take part in conflict resolution and peacebuilding initiatives, and rarely become involved officially. Track Two diplomacy is their more likely area of involvement. The United Nations has frequently supported the view that the private sector can be a powerful agent of change. However, the UN still engages only two players in conflict resolution and peacebuilding: civil society/NGOs and armed actors. UN peace operations have never been expressly mandated to consult with business or use its influence to build peace. Combining the resources, expertise and leverage of all possible actors would produce a more formidable force for peace. World affairs would benefit from integrating the private sector into a new UN system of governance; new routes are possible for a truly inclusive approach, recognising the business sector’s positive contribution to sustainable peace through informal mediation and collaborative engagement.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, Economy, Business, Peace, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- United Nations and Global Focus
225. Resisting TTIP Behind the Boarder Talks: The Case of Genetically Modified Organisms
- Author:
- Vinod K. Aggarwal
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Berkeley APEC Study Center
- Abstract:
- During negotiations of mega-regional trade agreements, state representatives have the incentive to demand that other parties align with their entrenched regulatory practices. Indeed, a country’s exporters will derive extensive benefits if negotiating partners fulfill these demands. Strictly pursuing self-interest, however, often leads to stalemate. When the United States (US) and European Union (EU) entered into negotiations of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), they sought to more effectively align transatlantic regulation and associated practices. Although extant literature indicates that relatively similar, rich, and developed countries should easily conclude agreements due to shared interests, negotiations between the US and EU in the regulatory area of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) deteriorated. By 2016, this matter effectively fell off the TTIP negotiating agenda.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
226. IN THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL, AGREEMENT, NOT DISCORD, IS THE NORM. BUT HAS IT WORKED FOR PEACEKEEPING?
- Author:
- Lise Morjé Howard and Anjali Dayal
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The UN Security Council’s five permanent members—the United States, the United Kingdom, Russia, France and China—are unlike-minded states with diverging foreign policy agendas. Media coverage of the Security Council typically highlights divisions between its Permanent Five Members (P5). This week, for instance, we read about Russia blocking a resolution for a cease-fire to bring humanitarian aid to a suburb of Damascusin Syria. In January, CNN declared a “big power showdown” at the Security Council. The narrative of five great powers at loggerheads with one another, each with a unilateral veto over any of the Council’s actions, is a powerful explanation for the UN’s stasis on some high-profile issues of international peace and security. But the largest category of Security Council action—UN peace operations—does not fit easily into this narrative, and examining it should lead us to reconsider the way we think about Security Council politics. For peace operations, agreement, not gridlock, is the norm at the Security Council. In general, P5 cooperation is a vital common good, because it enables multilateral responses to global crises. When it comes to peace operations, however, the Council has settled on a puzzling, often counter-productive point of agreement.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Peacekeeping, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Syria, and Global Focus
227. WHEN FIGHTING BREAKS OUT – EXPLAINING SUBNATIONAL VARIATION IN CIVIL WAR ONSET
- Author:
- Ore Koren
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Civil war onset is often correctly associated with weak states, such as Afghanistan. Many blame the failure of coalition forces to win the war in Afghanistan on the weakness of the central government (see, e.g., here, here, and here). Conflicts in the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia, and South Sudan, as well as some Latin American countries, further illustrate this view. But while weaker countries are susceptible to civil war, when we look for places within countries where violence will likely occur, this pattern reverses. In our study, to be published next month in ISQ, Anoop Sarbahi and I show that this state-centric approach misses a crucial part of the civil war puzzle: conflicts are more likely to erupt where weak states exercise more control, not less.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Civil War, Armed Forces, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
228. CONFLICT RESEARCHERS SHOULD CARE ABOUT THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF DATA PRODUCTION
- Author:
- Andrew Kerner and Charles Crabtree
- Publication Date:
- 03-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Conflict scholars, policy professionals, and non-profit organizations routinely link the outbreak of violence to economics and, particularly, to economic growth. Some scholars have linked growth conditions to the outbreak of violence while others have linked violence to subsequent growth trajectories. The relationship between violence and economics—and the related debate about whether violence is better considered a consequence of “politics” or “economics”—is central to the study of violence, and therefore central to the type of recommendations researchers provide to policymakers and the INGO community. The important questions in this area of inquiry are often empirical, and resolving them requires accurate and unbiased data. We are used to scrutinizing our measures of violence, but typically take for granted that economic data are apolitically generated. We know that these data must be measured with some degree of error but we typically assume that those errors are random, or, at least, unrelated to the conflict-related processes we use them to understand. That’s a lot to take on faith. If these data are not apolitically generated, any observed relationship between the economy and violence might in fact capture a relationship between the politics of violence and the politics of economic measurement.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Political Economy, World Bank, Conflict, and Data Production
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
229. CAN ECONOMIC SANCTION ACTIVITY IMPROVE HUMAN RIGHTS PRACTICES?
- Author:
- K. Chad Clay
- Publication Date:
- 04-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Governments often use economic sanctions for the expressed reason of curbing poor human rights practices by targeted states. However, previous research on the topic (e.g. Peksen 2009; Wood 2008) has found that the imposition of economic sanctions is regularly followed by increases in the use of torture, extrajudicial killing, political imprisonment, and enforced disappearance (also known as physical integrity rights abuses) by the targeted government, even when the sanctions are imposed over the target’s human rights practices. This raises a question: if sanctions produce worse human rights outcomes in the states targeted with them, why do governments continue to use them to try to improve human rights? There are many possible answers to that question, but in my recent article at the Journal of Global Security Studies, I focus on two in particular. First, while the imposition of economic sanctions may very well lead to increased abuse in targeted states, the threat of human rights-related economic sanctions may lead to improvements in the targeted government’s human rights practices (e.g. Drezner 2003; Lacy and Niou 2004). Second, targeted states may not be the only, or even the most important, audience for the signal sent by sanction activity (Baldwin 1985). As such, by showing observing leaders around the world that there is a possible additional cost associated with human rights abuse, rights-related sanction activity may cause some governments that were not targeted with sanctions to think twice before engaging in rights violations.
- Topic:
- Economics, Human Rights, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- China, Burundi, and Global Focus
230. IS THE UN SECURITY COUNCIL LOSING LEGITIMACY?
- Author:
- Anjali Dayal
- Publication Date:
- 06-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The UN Security Council (UNSC) is at a precipice. The Trump administration’s recent announcement that the US would no longer abide by the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the multilateral agreement to restrict Iran’s ability to acquire and develop nuclear weapons – breaks both a UNSC agreement and UNSC procedure. Breaking the JCPOA has the potential to undermine the UNSC’s legitimacy and the important functions it serves; the value the permanent five members of the UNSC (P5) place on the UNSC as a deliberative, policy-producing body in international politics is unlikely to persist amidst repeated, major violations of UNSC agreements and procedures by the P5, with downstream consequences for a broad swathe of international peace and security outcomes.
- Topic:
- United Nations, European Union, Legitimacy, UN Security Council, and JCPOA
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
231. THE UN’S DEFINING CHALLENGE: PEACEKEEPING AND PROTECTION OF CIVILIANS
- Author:
- Hanne Fjelde, Lisa Hultman, and Desirée Nilsson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- According to former UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, protecting civilians from atrocity crimes is “a defining purpose of the United Nations in the twenty-first century”. It might also be one of the UN’s greatest challenges. Protection of civilians has become a core task of peacekeeping operations: more than 95 percent of all peacekeepers deployed globally are mandated to protect civilians. At the same time, media headlines often highlight UN failures to respond to violence in a timely manner (for example, here and here), leaving civilians without protection. Looking beyond individual cases, is the UN really unable to perform one of its core tasks and live up to its “defining purpose”? In a recently published article in International Organization, we shed some light on these issues. Using fine-grained geographical data at the sub-national level, we empirically examine both where peacekeepers are deployed and whether they are able to effectively reduce violence against civilians. In short, we find three things: 1) the UN does deploy to locations where civilians are at risk, most clearly so in areas where rebels perpetrate violence; 2) the UN is effective in protecting civilians from rebel violence, but struggles to protect civilians from government violence, and 3) peacekeeping presence does not just push violence to adjacent locations.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Peacekeeping, Civilians, and Protection
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
232. #16DAYS: ELIMINATING VIOLENCE AGAINST WOMEN
- Author:
- Marie Berry
- Publication Date:
- 11-2018
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Last Sunday marked the start of #16days of Activism, a global campaign against gender-based violence. Championed by the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, UN Women, and many other groups, the campaign is designed to generate momentum towards eliminating the pervasiveness of all forms of gendered violence, including the physical and sexual violence that one-third of women across the globe will be subjected to in their lifetime. This campaign comes at a time when thousands of Central American migrants are attempting to cross the US-Mexico border, where they have been met by militarized border police and tear gas. These refugees are fleeing from myriad forms of violence—including forcible recruitment to gangs, targeted assassinations, and widespread abuse and sexual violence from community members, security forces, and intimate partners alike. Many have continued to face tremendous levels of violence along their route to the US from smugglers, other migrants, or government officials—women in particular face gender-based abuse in transit or upon arrival, including high rates of sexual assault.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, United Nations, Women, and Gender Based Violence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
233. Global Priorities in Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism: Practitioner Perspectives
- Author:
- Sam Mullins and James Howcroft
- Publication Date:
- 08-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This research note reports the results of a pilot questionnaire on priorities in terrorism and counterterrorism, which was completed by seventy-five security-sector professionals from more than fifty countries who attended the Program on Terrorism and Security Studies (PTSS) at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies (GCMC) in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany, from July to August, 2017. The results reveal that these practitioners consider terrorism to be one of the most serious threats to stability in their countries. Participants were especially concerned with jihadist terrorism and were more or less equally concerned with lone actors versus foreign fighters. The majority identified online versus offline methods as most important to terrorist recruitment, however this difference of opinion was not large. Looking to the future, they viewed hacking/cyber attacks by terrorists as particularly likely. In terms of counter-terrorism (CT), intelligence agencies were seen as playing the lead role, while cooperation between domestic CT agencies was seen as the biggest challenge. In contrast to this, terrorist use of encrypted communications was seen as least challenging. Participants were evenly split in their views on political negotiations with terrorists, but displayed a comparatively high degree of optimism about the prospects of deradicalization. Nevertheless, they also appeared to hold a government-centric view of CT, seeing relatively little role for civil society and non-governmental organizations. Border control was viewed as the capability most in need of further development.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and Counter-terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
234. Macroeconomic Policy and Women’s Economic Empowerment
- Author:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- At its core, the economic empowerment of women – to succeed and advance economically and to make and act on economic decisions – depends on the quantity and quality of paid employment, the provision or absence of public services, the amount of unpaid care work borne by women, as well as coverage or lack thereof under core social and labour protections. This paper discusses how macroeconomic policies are crucial enablers of gender equality, as they shape the overall economic environment for advancing women’s economic empowerment. It focuses on how macroeconomic policies support employment creation, the level of unpaid care required of women and the size of fiscal space, which determines the resources available for governments to promote gender equality.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Income Inequality, Macroeconomics, and Empowerment
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
235. Using Internal Evaluations to Measure Organizational Impact: A Meta-Analysis of Oxfam’s Women’s Empowerment Projects
- Author:
- Simone Lombardini and Kristen McCollum
- Publication Date:
- 09-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Oxfam Publishing
- Abstract:
- This paper presents the results of a meta-analysis examining the overall impact of women’s empowerment projects evaluated as part of Oxfam GB’s Effectiveness Reviews. Results show a positive and significant impact on the Women’s Empowerment Index and mixed results with its individual indicators. We found a statistically significant effect on opinions on women’s economic role and their ability to participate and have influence in the community. We did not find evidence of overall changes in power within the household nor with the share of household income. The meta-analysis also found statistically significant overall effects where the individual studies were too under-powered to detect impact. This paper provides an example of how using meta-analysis in the presence of a robust organizational global evaluation framework can enable evidence-based learning, organizational accountability and better programme implementation.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Women, Economic Inequality, Content Analysis, and Empowerment
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
236. Empowering women through international tourism: What we know and need to know
- Author:
- Fenohasina Rakotondrazaka Maret, Harsh Parikh, and Rachel Wilder
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- The United Nations designated 2017 as the International Year of Sustainable Tourism for Development, and for good reason. The tourism industry generates 10.2 percent of global GDP and employs 1 in 10 workers. Women make up more than half of the tourism workforce, which makes the industry’s growth a unique opportunity to empower women across the world. But we need additional data to better understand how women intersect with this burgeoning industry.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, Tourism, Women, Partnerships, and International Development
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Botswana, and Global Focus
237. Global development demands a data revolution that will make change happen, not just track it
- Author:
- G. Thomas Kingsley
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- Cities in developing countries are growing massively and at a pace that would not have been thought possible a few decades ago. Accommodating the new, largely poor, urban dwellers may be one of the greatest challenges of human history. A data revolution could support new ways of addressing this challenge. But United Nations agencies are so far just thinking about using data to track progress. In 2015, the United Nations adopted an ambitious new agenda for global development, and its proponents called for a data revolution to help achieve its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The challenge of rapid urbanization is a priority in the SDGs, as it is in the companion New Urban Agenda adopted by the United Nations’ Habitat III conference in late 2016. But to achieve the aims of these agendas, we need to use data in ways that will make change happen, not just track it. We need to get the data, tools, and training to the programs, people, and community leaders responsible for achieving the new goals. They are the ones whose work will decide whether the world’s urban future will be a story of inclusion and prosperity or a tragedy (over a billion people living in abject poverty in urban slums with scant water supply, sanitation, or other services—and highly at risk of environmental disaster).
- Topic:
- Development, Science and Technology, United Nations, and Sustainable Development Goals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
238. The Plutonium Disposition Management Agreement: Russia’s Withdrawal and the Possible Consequences
- Author:
- Debalina Ghoshal
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Council on International Policy (CIP)
- Abstract:
- InOctober2016,RussianPresidentVladmirPutin suspendedthePlutoniumDispositionManagementAgreement (PDMA) that mandated both the United States and Russia to eliminate a sufficient quantity of weapons grade plutonium. The suspension of the PDMA represents a step away toward achieving nuclear disarmament, a crucial component of the Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) under Article VI.
- Topic:
- International Security and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Global Focus
239. Cost of Aging
- Author:
- Ronald Lee and Andrew Mason
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- In advanced economies around the world, population growth is slowing down and populations are growing older. Economic growth is also slowing, at least in part because of the slow growth of the labor force and of populations as a whole—despite immigration. Many empirical studies have found that gross domestic product (GDP) growth slows roughly one to one with declines in labor-force and population growth—a disquieting prospect for the United States and for advanced economies in Asia and Europe. If there are fewer workers to support a growing elderly population and worker productivity remains the same, either consumption must be reduced or labor supply increased—for example, through later retirement. By 2050, the projected slowdown in growth of the labor supply could lead to a drop in consumption of 25 percent in China, 9 percent in the United States, and 13 percent in other high-income countries. The situation could be improved, however, by a rise in labor-force productivity. In fact, standard growth models predict that slower population growth will lead to rising output and wages per worker. The underlying question is whether this higher output per worker will be sufficient to offset the rise in the number of dependents per worker as the population ages. To help answer this question, this article looks more closely at how economic activity varies by age, drawing on national transfer accounts, which measure how people at various ages produce, consume, and save resources. This analysis shows that GDP and national income growth will most certainly slow down as populations age, but the effect on individuals—as measured by per capita income and consumption—may be quite different.
- Topic:
- International Relations and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
240. Counting Women’s Work: Measuring the gendered economy in the market and at home
- Author:
- Sidney B. Westley
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- Through the ages, women have specialized in the unpaid work of raising children, maintaining households, and caring for others, while men have been more likely to earn wages in the market (Watkins et al. 1987). As fertility rates have declined, however, women have joined the labor force outside the home in growing numbers. Understanding how women’s economic roles are changing and how and why they may change in the future is crucial for understanding the economic effects of changes in population age structure. It is also vital for improving gender equality, ensuring the wellbeing of children and other family members, and maintaining a healthy rate of economic growth.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues and International Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
241. The First Hundred Days: Trump Meets Asia...and Reality
- Author:
- June Teufel Dreyer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- The first 100 days of a president’s term—the “honeymoon period,” during which his power and influence are believed to be their greatest—are, whether rightly or wrongly, regarded as a predictor of a president’s success during the remainder of his term. Given the often bombastic tone of Candidate Trump’s campaign rhetoric, it was to be expected that the foreign powers against whom much of his vitriol was directed would seek to challenge the determination of President Trump to live up to his promises. And so it has been.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
242. Can a Hydra Ever Be a Good Pet? Federal Information Technology Modernization’s Likely Failure
- Author:
- Lawrence Husick
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- In Greek mythology, the Hydra was a many-headed serpent (accounts range from six to more than 50 heads) which grew back at least two heads for each one lopped off. The Hydra had poisonous breath and blood so virulent that even its scent was deadly. It took Heracles to vanquish the beast in his second labor. It’s a pity then that the less-than-heroic Jared Kushner now has the task of modernizing and reforming the federal government’s information technology (IT) and cybersecurity infrastructure—a hydra-like beast if ever there was one.
- Topic:
- International Security
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
243. Making sense of Europe’s Southern Neighbourhood: Main Geopolitical and Security Parameters
- Author:
- Luis Simón and Vivien Pertusot
- Publication Date:
- 01-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Elcano Royal Institute
- Abstract:
- Europe’s southern neighbourhood is a diverse but interlinked geopolitical ensemble, whose specificities need to be carefully assessed before Europeans devise dedicated security strategies, divide responsibilities and make policy decisions. This exercise in geopolitical scoping seeks to make sense of the main security challenges present in Europe’s broader European neighbourhood, a space encompassing areas as diverse as the Gulf of Guinea, the Sahel, North Africa, the Levant and the Persian Gulf. It identifies (some of) the main sub-regions that make up the ‘South’, offers an overview of the threat environment in each of them and identifies relevant differences as well as common themes. In doing so we aim to provide a conceptual referent for further policy research on the security of Europe’s ‘South’, and to help inform future strategic and policy discussions within the EU, NATO and their Member States.
- Topic:
- International Security, International Affairs, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Global Focus
244. What Holds Some Terrorist Organizations from Joining al-Qaeda?
- Author:
- FARAS
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Future for Advanced Research and Studies (FARAS)
- Abstract:
- The Sahel and Sahara region has witnessed, in recent years, the emergence of a number of terrorist groups that adopt extremist ideologies, but with- out engaging with major cross-border terrorist organizations such as al Qaeda despite developing strong ties with them. The situation prompted views that these new groups are undeclared branches of the mother organization due, on the grounds that their ideology is, to a large extent, identical to that embraced by al-Qaeda. Moreover, these new groups show support to al-Qaeda’s terror attacks, which raises questions about the reasons why there are such groups that operate under various names and are, at the same time, keen to set themselves aside from al-Qaeda.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
245. The Razumkov Center Newsletter
- Author:
- Razumkov Center
- Publication Date:
- 12-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- The next presidential election in Ukraine is set for 31 March 2019. The parliamentary election to the 9th Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine will take place on 27 October 2019. According to the latest survey conducted in October 2017, the following parties would be elected to the Parliament: «Petro Poroshenko Bloc «Solidarity» (13.6%), «Batkivshchyna» (10%), «Civic Position» party (8.9%), «Opposition Bloc» party (8.6%), «For Life» party (6.8%), the Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (6.5%), «Self Help» Union (5.9%). Others would not be able to cross the 5% threshold.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
246. The Razumkov Center Newsletter
- Author:
- Razumkov Center
- Publication Date:
- 11-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- Before the bill “On the peculiarities of state policy on the restoration of Ukraine’s state sovereignty over the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts” is adopted, it needs some additional work.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
247. The Razumkov Center Newsletter
- Author:
- Razumkov Center
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- ANTI-CORRUPTION COURT: TO EXECUTE IMPOSSIBLE TO PARDON determined by the level of people’s awareness, candidates’ hidden motives. Society must ask questions: who is the candidate, what does he seek, does he represent a particular person, or is he an independent law-maker? We have to ask ourselves as well. Because after the election campaign of 2014, many new deputies emerged, but they did not turn out to be who they positioned themselves as. The issue of the quality of parliamentarism is a deep one, it cannot be associated with a certain law, – it is connected with political culture that needs to be developed. Full text Kharkiv oblast, and Svatove in Luhansk oblast in 2015. This year, attention of the entire country was drawn to the fires in Balaklia, Kharkiv oblast in late March, and now – the one not far from Kalynivka, Vinnytsia oblast. situation, where the corruption search campaign across all levels of the government triad has brought Ukraine to the top of corrupt states list, and the judiciary is consistently and deliberately deprived of the lion’s share of public trust, the creation of a specialised anti-corruption court will bring the fight against corruption into a practical stage. Full text The court system is largely disoriented and demoralised. It is hard to predict the results of its next modernisation in the sense of its ability to bring all of its segments together to properly administer fair justice. Today, the expert and political community is awaiting the «finalising» of assembly of the new Supreme Court and the determination of prospects for creating the anti-corruption court, especially, methods and ways this issue is to be solved.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
248. The Razumkov Center Newsletter
- Author:
- Razumkov Center
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- In Ukraine, every President that comes to power aspires to change the Constitution of Ukraine, however, even this Constitution has hardly ever been abided by in the 20 years. Our civil society is still underdeveloped. We still experience only occasional surges – one Maidan, then another one, where the civil society shows itself. We still have not reached the point where civil society controls the government.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
249. The Razumkov Center Newsletter
- Author:
- Razumkov Center
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- The inability of the Constitutional Court to choose the new Chairman of theCCU in a closed meeting held recently is just the outside sign of existing problems accumulated inside and around this important state institution.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
250. The Razumkov Center Newsletter
- Author:
- Razumkov Center
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Razumkov Centre
- Abstract:
- The Constitutional Commission created in early March 2015 by President Petro Poroshenko’s Decree has hardly stopped it work, as new rumours of yet another Constitutional change have started spreading inside Ukrainian information space and political environment. Citizens cannot make up their mind about the necessity of amending the Basic Law, as they are not aware of their fundamental constitutional rights. Razumkov Centre’s survey results in 2015 show that only 10% of Ukrainians are familiar with the text of the Constitution, while 40% – have never laid eyes on the Basic Law
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus