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252. Trump’s Paris Exit A blow to climate politics, but a boon to regional climate policy?
- Author:
- Milan Elkerbout
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The withdrawal of the United States from the Paris Agreement represents a setback for global climate action. But the damage will be felt more in political and diplomatic terms than in terms of climate policy or reductions in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, which depend at least in the near term on domestic climate policies. The election of Donald Trump and the strong Republican majorities in both Houses of Congress that accompanied his election immediately dispelled any hope that the US would implement or maintain ambitious climate policies. Indeed, in the first months of his Presidency, Trump signed an executive order to review (and thus likely roll back) President Obama’s landmark climate policy – the Clean Power Plan. The latter initiative aimed to reduce power-sector emissions by 32% by 2030 through federal legislation. Other US climate policies, such as vehicle standards and methane regulations, are also destined for the axe. Taken collectively, these measures will make it very difficult for the country to meet its Paris pledge of reducing GHG emissions by 26-28% by 2025 compared to 2005, even if another personality occupies the White House by 2021. 1 Improving fundamentals for renewable energy may still allow the US to reach its 2020 target of a 17% reduction in emissions compared to 2005. But the difference between this target and the formal pledge made by the US in Paris is roughly equal to the annual emissions of the entire transport sector in the EU.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, International Affairs, and Climate Finance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
253. Sharing responsibility for refugees and expanding legal migration
- Author:
- Mikkel Barslund
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
- Abstract:
- CEPS researchers Mikkel Barslund, Mehtap Akgüç, Nadzeya Laurentsyeva and Lars Ludolph are among the contributors to the 2017 MEDAM Assessment Report on Asylum and Migration Policies in Europe, produced by the Mercator Dialogue on Asylum and Migration (MEDAM). The report explores ways in which responsibility for refugees can be fairly distributed – globally and within the EU – and how we can curb irregular migration while expanding legal immigration to the benefit of all concerned. CEPS is one of three research institutes working on this multi-year project, alongside the Kiel Institute for the World Economy and the Migration Policy Centre at the European University Institute. For more information on the MEDAM project, which is funded by Stiftung Mercator
- Topic:
- Migration and Refugee Issues
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
254. Follow the External (Balance of Payments) Breakevens of the Oil Exporters
- Author:
- Brad W. Setser
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The global impact of oil’s fall from $100 plus to under $50 a barrel has not gotten as much attention as I think it deserves. For most oil exporters, it has been a profound shock—one that forced such a massive contraction in imports that it pulled down global trade (far more than the trade remedies that tend to dominate the ‘trade” news). A few countries adjusted quickly and relatively efficiently (Russia), though not painlessly. A few have struggled to adapt—notably, because of its large external debt, poor policies, and growing political crisis, Venezuela.
- Topic:
- Oil and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
255. The Trump-Putin Meeting: From Hamburg to Southern Syria
- Author:
- Zvi Magen and Udi Dekel
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The first meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin since Trump entered the White House took place in Hamburg, during the G20 summit of July 7-8, 2017. Relations between the two powers have been marked by tension over disagreements on various areas of conflict around the world, and from the reports in the United States about alleged contacts between Trump and Russia during the presidential campaign and Russian cyber interference in the election process. Tensions rose further when US forces attacked pro-Assad coalition forces in Syria and when Russia opposed the condemnation of North Korea in the Security Council regarding Pyonyang’s long range missile program. Nonetheless, reports were that the meeting between the leaders, which lasted longer than planned, was constructive, though very few details about the conversation itself or any agreements reached were provided, other than an announcement on the agreement to impose a ceasefire in southwestern Syria and establish a de-escalation zone there.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
256. The G20 Hamburg Summit
- Author:
- Oded Eran
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- The agenda alone of the G20 summit in Hamburg, Germany on July 7-8, 2017 was not sufficient to draw the world’s attention. Although the forum brings together the leaders of the world’s 19 leading economies and the European Union, representing two thirds of the global population and 80 percent of the global GDP, it generally draws little more than thousands of demonstrators protesting globalization. This summit, however, generated much interest as it provided the stage for personal meetings between leaders, some the first of their kind, such as between Presidents Trump and Putin. In addition, at the summit Trump had to confront the other 19 leaders directly on some trade issues and the Paris Agreement, and the summit itself took place while eyes were also directed eastward, starting just after North Korea successfully tested its first intercontinental ballistic missile.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
257. The North Korean Challenge: Insights from the Far East for the Middle East
- Author:
- Amos Yadlin and Avner Golov
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- On July 4, 2017, North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of flying a distance of over 6,000 kilometers. With the test, the first of its kind for Pyongyang, North Korea sought to highlight its ability to threaten United States territory, not merely American forces stationed in Northeast Asia. The missile, which was in the air for nearly 40 minutes, was launched specifically on American Independence Day, a few days after the meeting between US President Donald Trump and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who favors a conciliatory approach to North Korea.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
258. Trump’s gas doctrine: What does it mean for the EU?
- Author:
- Marco Giuli
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- The United States (US) has always been a key player in the European Union’s energy security, as a supporter of its gas supply diversification plans. The Trump administration is underlining the US’ role as a gas exporter. This shift of tone from a strategic to a commercial approach risks furthering divisions and mistrust among European Union (EU) member states, with potential negative effects for the Energy Union.
- Topic:
- Climate Finance and International Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
259. The US exits Paris Can the EU drive international climate action?
- Author:
- Romain Pardo
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- European Policy Centre (EPC)
- Abstract:
- The Trump administration's decision to withdraw from the Paris agreement will make its implementation more challenging. The United States (US) had been instrumental in brokering a successful deal in Paris and speeding the ratification process for an early entry into force of the agreement. While the US remains party to the agreement for the next four years, its involvement in upcoming international climate discussions remains uncertain. Meanwhile, policy developments in the country such as the "Energy Independence Executive Order" indicate that the current administration has currently no intention to fulfil the pledge made by the previous one to lower CO2 emissions by 26 to 28% below 2005 levels in 2025.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, and International Development
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
260. The Future of Trade
- Author:
- Rohinton P. Medhora
- Publication Date:
- 07-2017
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for International Governance Innovation
- Abstract:
- Critical reviews of hard-hitting commentaries on urgent global issues are published periodically by Project Syndicate as part of their Issue Adviser series. In the latest instalment, below, the president of the Centre for International Governance Innovation assesses the populist threat to globalization and international trade and considers arguments by economists such as Kaushik Basu, Jeffrey Frankel, Laura Tyson and other commentators
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and Global Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus