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21. What should leaders focus on during the United Nations General Assembly High-level week 2022 to help restore some popular trust in international collective action and multilateralism?

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Karina Gerlach, and Hanny Megally
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
Leaders will come together in the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) High Level Week starting September 19 for both a return to diplomacy and a test of diplomacy. At the last minute, the schedule for the meetings has been thrown into disarray by the death of the HM Queen Elizabeth II, with her funeral in London scheduled for September 19: this will draw attendance from many heads of state and governments and will mean that the earliest many leaders will arrive in New York for UNGA is the night of September 19-20. Nonetheless, these meetings offer the chance for a return to diplomacy because it will be the first high-level week in three years that approaches normal in-person attendance and meetings (although access to the United Nations [UN] building will still be restricted for all except diplomats and special invitees). Over 100 heads of state and 50 heads of government were confirmed, although it is not clear the extent to which this will change due to the UK funeral ceremonies. The current signals are that this will affect timings more than overall attendance: President Biden’s speech for example will shift to Wednesday, September 20 instead of the traditional Tuesday address. As for a test of diplomacy, this is because the sense last year that “things could hardly get worse,” after 18 months of the pandemic, has proven to be an underestimation: the invasion of Ukraine has made the political, security, and socio-economic landscape considerably worse than it was in September 2021. In these circumstances, CIC experts cover what leaders coming to the high-level week should focus on, focusing the following items that we hope to see transpire during high-level week in both public events and the bilateral/closed meetings.
Topic:
Diplomacy, United Nations, Multilateralism, and International Community
Political Geography:
Global Focus

22. 2022 Retrospective and Trends for 2023

Author:
Sarah Cliffe, Marta Bautista Forcada, Symphony Chau, and Hanny Megally
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:
One year ago, we started our analysis of trends in 2022 on a pessimistic note, including the long-lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic; macro-economic volatility; the risk of a war in Ukraine and escalating tensions over Iran and Taiwan; and increasing divisions between North and South and between China and the West. At the end of 2022, looking ahead to next year, we see some surprising grounds for optimism, even though many of the risks that we pointed to have come to pass. These trends include how multilateralism played a surprisingly successful role in Ukraine, as we consider the Black Sea Grain Initiative and the UN resolutions that passed relating to the conflict, along with agreements during the G20 summit in Bali. Other positive notes pertain to potentially transformative global agreements on damage and loss and international tax cooperation, and the absorption of longer-term lessons on inter-state aggression. However, on the negative end, we close the year facing multiple crises chasing the same (declining) pot of money—whether conflict, humanitarian, socio-economic or climate. For our team’s analysis of trends for 2023, there is a focus on nine areas where politics and economics are closely interlinked, and we expect this to be a dominant theme of 2023.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, United Nations, Multilateralism, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Global Focus

23. Considering the Future of Gender and Peace Operations: Strategic Debates and Operational Challenges

Author:
Gretchen Baldwin
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The women, peace and security (WPS) agenda in peace operations has had myriad successes as well as setbacks in implementation. The rise of ‘gender-sensitive’ or ‘gender-responsive’ approaches to peacekeeping signals progress in policy language, but in practice peacekeepers can struggle to comprehensively implement gender analyses or deliver on WPS tasks. Based on a review of existing academic and policy literature, this paper identifies five strategic debates central to WPS agenda implementation: participation beyond numbers, men’s roles, defining ‘gender’, balancing gender ‘inside and outside the fence’, and non-traditional security challenges. It then identifies six key operational challenges to implementation: resourcing, accountability, recruitment barriers, scale, siloing versus mainstreaming, and securitization. With the approach of the 25th anniversary of the WPS agenda in 2025—possibly the most significant yet for the integration of gender and peace operations—stakeholders should step up efforts to ensure the sustainability of the agenda’s implementation in line with its most progressive reading.
Topic:
Security, Peacekeeping, Women, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

24. Inclusion and Exclusion in International Ordering: An Interview with Glenda Sluga

Author:
Glenda Sluga and Daniel R. Quiroga-Villamarín
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Toynbee Prize Foundation
Abstract:
The image of two men, sitting awkwardly across each other in a solemn conference table, suddenly sprouted everywhere in my Twitter feed last winter. As a terrifying war erupted over competing visions of eastern Europe’s place in the international order, this somewhat surreal picture of the rulers of France and Russia conferencing offered little respite. It was precisely at this time that I had the pleasure to converse with the incoming Toynbee Prize Foundation President Glenda Sluga about her most recent monographThe Invention of International Order: Remaking Europe after Napoleon (Princeton University Press). As the so-called international order comes under increasing pressure in Ukraine and beyond, Sluga’s timely book invites us to engage with the “two centuries of multilateral principles, practices, and expectations” to understand the promises and limits of our contemporary arrangements (p. xi). It places the recent meeting between Macron and Putin in the context of the rise and consolidation of “a new professional, procedural, and bureaucratic approach to diplomacy, based on the sociability of men” (p. 6). After all, our modern notions of international “politics” or “society” were forged in the aftermath of a previous European-wide conflagration that had France and Russia at its helm: the Napoleonic wars. Sluga’s account does not aim to blindly celebrate nor to categorically condemn this modern political imaginary of international ordering. Others have dismissed the post-Napoleonic diplomatic constellation as reactionary or have lauded it as protoliberal. Sluga, above all, is interested in questioning it. She invites us to: reflect on for whom this order has been built; push against the ways it narrows our perspective; and grapple with its inner tensions and contradictions (p. 282). At the heart of the book, I would suggest, lies a concern about the paradoxical record of European modernity: a project that “has offered an expansive horizon of political expectations but delivered a voice only for some” (p. 7). By taking women, non-Europeans, and “non-state” actors seriously as political agents, she shows how bankers, Jews, or ambassadrices were ironically crucial in the making of a system that came to exclude them from the historical record. And, unsurprisingly, these exclusions lead to tensions that threaten to upend international order from within and without—from 1821, 1848, or 1853 to 2022. In our conversation, we attempt to make sense of these paradoxes, contradictions, and ambiguities of international ordering.
Topic:
Politics, History, Multilateralism, Interview, Exclusion, International Order, and Inclusion
Political Geography:
Global Focus

25. COP26’s Dilemma: Sustainability vs Food Security?

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Ironically, amidst the push to “phase down” coal reliance, the world is seeing a “coal crunch” of rising coal/energy prices, with serious implications on fertilisers and food. Countries pursuing sustainability initiatives ignore these trade-offs at their own peril.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Food, Food Security, and Sustainability
Political Geography:
Global Focus

26. Planetary Health: Managing Competing Tensions

Author:
Margareth Sembiring
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
After more than two years of the COVID-19 pandemic, wars present a stark reminder of how difficult it is to stay committed to environmental causes when crises arise.
Topic:
Environment, Health, International Cooperation, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

27. Urban Resilience: A 21ˢᵗ Century Challenge

Author:
S. Nanthini
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Cities are now home to more than half the global population. As the urban population continues to increase amid the intensification of the effects of climate change, urban disasters are set to affect more people than ever before. As such, strategies to build urban resilience are quickly becoming an urgent matter of global concern.
Topic:
Climate Change, Urban, Population Growth, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

28. Human Development and Mental Health: New Approaches and Metrics Needed

Author:
Julius Caesar Trajano
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
The latest UN study reiterated the importance of mental wellbeing and psychological resilience in human development and security. A change in approach and metrics is necessary to improve tackling of mental health issues while simultaneously managing contemporary challenges such as climate change, conflict prevention, and protection of the environment.
Topic:
Development, Environment, Health, International Cooperation, United Nations, Mental Health, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Global Focus

29. International Currency Instability and Food Security: Time to Rebuild “Real Food Economies”?

Author:
Jose M. L. Montesclaros
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Debt-distressed countries are handicapped in riding the rising costs of imported food and farming inputs amidst monetary policy shifts internationally. It is timely to rebuild “real food economies” to improve food availability and affordability, hence averting food crises and ensuing political and social instability.
Topic:
Economics, Monetary Policy, Food, and Food Security
Political Geography:
Global Focus

30. Cybersecurity in the Humanitarian Sector: New Challenges and Solutions

Author:
Christopher Chen
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
On 3 November 2022, the International Committee of the Red Cross released its report, “Digitalising the Red Cross, Red Crescent and Red Crystal Emblems: Benefits, Risks and Possible Solutions.” It was in response to cyber intrusions the movement faces. As the humanitarian sector integrates digital technologies into its operations, it faces significant cyber risks. How should the sector navigate this increasingly complex space?
Topic:
Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, NGOs, Humanitarian Crisis, and Digital Transition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

31. Countering Disinformation and Misinformation in Humanitarian Relief Work

Author:
S. Nanthini
Publication Date:
12-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Humanitarian organisations are trying to adjust to the rapid transformation of information and communication technology. The rise in disinformation and misinformation poses significant challenges to the sharing of accurate information in times of need. Humanitarian organisations must invest more in efforts to adapt to the realities of the information landscape today.
Topic:
Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, Science and Technology, Humanitarian Crisis, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Global Focus

32. Spheres of Influence in a Multipolar World

Author:
Andrew Latham
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Defense Priorities
Abstract:
Throughout the modern era, great powers have routinely staked out geographic zones within which they have limited the autonomy of weaker states—often as buffer zones between themselves and potential adversaries or rival empires. Since the nineteenth century, these geopolitical spaces have typically been referred to as spheres of influence. The specific configuration of such spheres depends largely on the distribution of power in the international system. During moments of multi-polarity, multiple great powers will attempt to assert spheres of influence; during the Cold War era of bipolarity, the international order was defined by two superpower-dominated spheres; during the post-Cold War moment of unipolarity, the U.S. alone was able to assert a sphere of influence. Given this, it was inevitable that the return of multipolarity from the 2010s on would result in the crystallization of a new, multipolar, configuration of spheres of influence—one involving multiple great powers each asserting their own sphere. The relevant question now, therefore, is not if the transition to a world of multiple spheres of influence will take place (given the structural changes at the level of international order, it most certainly will), but how Washington should manage this development in ways that are both realistic and conducive to U.S. interests. The most realistic answer to this how question is to adopt a differentiated strategy that recognizes that, while the U.S. will not be able to prevent spheres of influence as a feature of international order tout court, it may be able to thwart specific spheres in certain specific circumstances.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Multipolarity, and International Order
Political Geography:
Global Focus and United States of America

33. Fact Sheet: Global Demonstrations Against the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author:
Sam Jones
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Following the Russian invasion, a wave of demonstrations in solidarity with Ukraine spread around the world. Between 24 February and 4 March, ACLED records more than 1,800 demonstrations in support of Ukraine and against Russian aggression globally. During this time, demonstrations were reported across at least 93 countries and territories (see map below). Nearly all of these demonstrations — over 99% — were peaceful (i.e. protesters engaged in neither violence nor destructive activity).
Topic:
Solidarity, Conflict, Demonstrations, and Intervention
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Global Focus

34. Shared Human Values and the Great Powers’ Competition: Trends in the Evolution of the International Relations System

Author:
Plamen Pantev
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for Security and International Studies (ISIS)
Abstract:
Unless we change and improve the quality of the international relations system (IRS) – the political toolbox for building a community with a shared future for mankind, for more effective global governance and for a more balanced global partnership for development, we shall miss the historic chance and still open window of opportunity to reach these lofty goals. How to shape such a better functioning IRS? What are its invariant characteristics in the second decade of the 21st century?
Topic:
International Relations, Governance, International Relations Theory, Strategic Competition, and Power
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35. Big data and national security: A guide for Australian policymakers

Author:
Miah Hammond-Errey
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:
Data abundance, digital connectivity, and ubiquitous technology now enable near complete coverage of human lives across the planet, often in real-time. The Covid-19 pandemic, by forcing more interactions online and greater social reliance on technology, has significantly added to the global pool of data. Advances in the scale, application, and commercial uses of data significantly outpace regulation of the big data landscape. Technical and analytical capabilities that are essential for the functioning of societies are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small number of commercial entities. The implications of big data for surveillance, real or potential interference, and kinetic war are underappreciated in policy and public discussions. Identifying and protecting the uses of critical data should be a national security priority for government on par with safeguarding critical digital infrastructure.
Topic:
Government, National Security, Science and Technology, Surveillance, and Data
Political Geography:
Global Focus

36. Foresight and its application in ministries of foreign affairs

Author:
Javier Ignacio Santander
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
Based on previous research regarding foresight capabilities of ministries of foreign affairs, this work focuses on the modern concept of foresight and of its application to foreign relations. Specifically, it aims to provide a summary of similiarities observed in the way in which foreign affairs ministries have developed foresight capacity.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Government, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Global Focus

37. CONFLICT MINERALS LEGISLATION: SHOOTING AT THE WRONG TARGET… AGAIN

Author:
Marijke Verpoorten and Nik Stoop
Publication Date:
01-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
On January 1, 2021, the European Conflict Minerals Act came into force. It aims to regulate the trade in four minerals—tin, tantalum, tungsten, and gold, also known as 3TG—that are often sourced from conflict-affected countries where the profits may allow armed groups to finance their activities. The regulation aims to break the link between minerals and conflict by ensuring that European Union (EU)-based companies only import minerals from conflict-free sources. If companies import minerals from conflict regions, the law requires them to report where the minerals were mined, the location of processing and trade, and the taxes and fees that were paid.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Conflict, and Minerals
Political Geography:
Global Focus

38. IS CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVING GLOBAL CONFLICT?

Author:
Nina von Uexkull and Halvard Buhaug
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
While former US President Donald Trump frequently denied man-made climate change, the Biden administration has pledged to make climate change a priority, including for national security. In line with years of thinking within the defense sector, the Biden-Harris team refers to climate change as a “threat multiplier,” pointing to risks of regional instability and resource competition driven by worsening environmental conditions. This perspective also aligns with the initiatives of other countries that have pushed climate security in the UN Security Council and other international bodies.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Climate Change, International Security, Conflict, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

39. PTSS Virtual Global Alumni Community of Interest Workshop: The Impact of the COVID–19 Pandemic on Terrorism and Counterterrorism

Author:
James K. Wither
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
Abstract:
This paper presents the findings of a George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies (GCMC) Counterterrorism (CT) Virtual Global Alumni Community of Interest (COI) workshop held on January 20-21, 2021. The objectives of the workshop were as follows: Analyze the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on terrorism and CT nationally and internationally. Identify the extent to which the pandemic has created vulnerabilities that terrorists have been able to exploit to mount attacks and/or attract new recruits. Explore the extent to which the pandemic might make societies more vulnerable to terrorism and irregular warfare in the longer term and the reasons why this could happen. Formulate policy recommendations for the global counterterrorism community from the perspective of GCMC CT Alumni. The virtual workshop was structured around four panels, each with two alumni panelists with practical or academic expertise on the selected topics. GCMC CT faculty acted as panel moderators. The panels examined the impact of the pandemic on terrorist financing as well as terrorism and CT in the Middle East, the Americas, and the Sahel in Africa. Thirty selected global alumni took part in the workshop and raised additional questions and comments after the formal panel sessions. Initially, planning for the COI took place in spring 2020, when it was wrongly assumed that the worst of the pandemic would be over by 2021 and assessments of its impact would, therefore, be relatively conclusive. However, given the continued threat posed by COVID-19, with countries around the world still suffering from its impact, the assessments below must be regarded as interim. Therefore, the workshop made no specific policy recommendations. Marshall Center CT faculty members, along with their colleagues at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia–Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS), have researched the impact of the pandemic on terrorism since March 2020.1 The COI followed a survey of alumni on the impact of the pandemic on terrorism and CT conducted in October 2020.2 Over four hundred military and civilian counterterrorism practitioners responded to the survey from Europe, North and South America, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Unsurprisingly, many of the conclusions from the recent workshop are similar to impact statements in the earlier survey.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Global Focus

40. If you Can't Beat Them, Join Them: Should States Embrace Bitcoin?

Author:
Jesse Colzani
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Bitcoin – the most secure and well-established technology to store value[1] – was created in 2008 to challenge the state’s centralised monopoly on money. It is a digital currency worth 1 trillion US dollars that knows no boundaries and is not controlled by any central authority. Although it is considered a threat to the established order, countries and institutional actors are gradually realising Bitcoin can also be a tool to advance their economic and geopolitical interests. Today, governments find themselves in the difficult position of having to decide whether Bitcoin should be integrated into their economies and governance structures or if they should continue to oppose, block or seek to co-opt the digital currency. But to understand Bitcoin and make an informed decision, one has to first appreciate the different components of its ecosystem.
Topic:
Political Economy, Governance, Currency, Digital Policy, and Bitcoin
Political Geography:
Global Focus