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282. A Renewed Commitment to American Commercial Diplomacy
- Author:
- Charles A. Ford
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- The United States is the world’s leading exporter, the world’s leading importer, and the world’s primary source and destination of funds for foreign investment. Our position as the best place in the world to do business—the most reliable in which to buy, the most lucrative in which to sell, and the safest and surest in which to invest or to raise capital—is the cause, not an effect of American global leadership. Protecting and expanding the US role as the world’s supplier and customer of choice for goods, services, ideas, capital, and entrepreneurial energy should be a foreign policy objective second only to securing the homeland.”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Diplomacy, International Political Economy, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- America and Global Focus
283. Innovation: Key to a 21st Century Alliance
- Author:
- John Berry
- Publication Date:
- 09-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- Over 200 years ago, one of our founding fathers Benjamin Franklin urged us to innovate, with the warning: “When you’re finished changing, you’re finished.” One of our greatest presidents, Abraham Lincoln, was not only a talented statesman, he was an inventor and tinkerer extraordinaire. Innovation lies at the very heart of what it means to be an American. From the beginning, our country was a grand experiment. We believed then—and now—that freedom plus hard work equals progress. Innovation, invention, and creativity help turn progress into success.
- Topic:
- Development, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Global Focus
284. Eight recommendations for the II National Action Plan on Women, Peace and Security
- Author:
- Maria Solanas Cardín
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Elcano Royal Institute
- Abstract:
- The II National Action Plan for the implementation of Resolution 1325, currently being prepared by the Spanish Government, should build on lessons learnt and include specific measures and best practices if it aims to achieve any advancement in the women, peace and security agenda. Nine years after the approval of the I National Action Plan for the implementation of Resolution 1325 –and mainly driven by its participation, as a non-permanent member, in the United Nations Security Council during the 2015-16 biennium–, the Spanish Government has marked the women, peace and security agenda as a priority, undertaking to draft a II National Action Plan. The number of challenges outstanding, almost 16 years after the approval of Resolution 1325, calls for a global commitment that is sustained over time and for actions and measures in field operations supported by sufficient funding (the most serious and persistent impediment for implementation of Resolution 1325). The alliance with local organisations and agents, mainly women’s organisations, has proved to be the most efficient way to promote and ensure a significant participation by women in the prevention of conflicts and in peace-building. Only a Plan based on such premises will effectively contribute towards the implementation of Resolution 1325.
- Topic:
- Development, Gender Issues, International Security, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
285. Might and Right in World Politics
- Author:
- Dr. Jan (eds) Woischnik and Dr Jans Woischnik
- Publication Date:
- 12-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Brazilian Center for International Relations (CEBRI)
- Abstract:
- In the last decade of the 20th century, when the Cold War came to an end, there was a growing understanding that International Law was consolidated as legitimation body for state actions. It was the begin- ning of a new peaceful world order, the world hoped that an old problem of geopolitics could finally be fully addressed by the International Law, a problem which the Athenian General Thucydides observed already more than 2000 years ago, according to which in the realm of the international, “the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must”. In this new world order right was supposed to finally come before might.
- Topic:
- International Law, Political Theory, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
286. Primakov Readings
- Author:
- Tatyana Alekseeva
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- The International Primakov Readings Forum took place November 29-30, 2016, in commemoration of Yevgeny Primakov. The meeting was organized by the Russian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO led by Alexander Dynkin) and was backed by the World Trade Center, the Russian Science Foundation, the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy, and the University of Pennsylvania. In his address to the Forum, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin argued that Primakov had succeeded in predicting the events unfolding in today’s world, especially in the Middle East. As the Head of State put it, “Actually, I was always taking heed of Primakov’s assessments, as he was a wise and astute diplomat. I trusted him and asked to accomplish responsible and sensitive missions rather than ordered him”. Besides, the Primakov Readings Conference brought together Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, Chair of the Federation Council Valentina Matvienko, and President’s foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov who delivered an opening speech. The Forum was also attended by most leading experts on international relations. The Rethinking Russia Think Tank presents the comment of Tatyana Alekseeva, a participant of the Primakov Readings Forum.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Global Focus
287. Russophrenia: western elites ignore their own citizens’ anger and blame Russia instead
- Author:
- Bryan MacDonald
- Publication Date:
- 01-2016
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Rethinking Russia
- Abstract:
- At the start of 1917, rumours reached London that something was stirring in Petrograd (now St. Petersburg). As a result, the concerned Prime Minister, David Lloyd George, urgently dispatched Lord Milner, a diplomat of some repute, to the Russian capital. His Lordship visited the Tsar and spoke to ministers and members of the Duma, who informed him that enemies of the state were spreading groundless yarns. Sadly, being a creature of his class, Milner believed that only the elites mattered so he neglected to consult any of the general public. Thus, cocooned in his bubble, the peer reported to London that there was nothing the government could not handle and no need to expect no major changes. However, the same British travelling party also included Lloyd George’s private secretary Philip Kerr. A little more clued in, Kerr walked the streets and interviewed the plain folk. Armed with their predictions, he sent a telegram to Downing Street which asserted that Russia was on the verge of an unstoppable revolution. As it happens, the man who stepped out of the comfort zone was right because Nikolai II was shorn of his crown before the British delegation made it home. We know this story because many years later the ‘Welsh Wizard,’ Lloyd George, revealed the details to Ivan Maisky, the Soviet ambassador to London. And almost a hundred years later, it is a salutary lesson in the dangers of the establishment refusing to acknowledge ordinary people’s concerns when evaluating the causes of political upheaval.
- Topic:
- International Relations, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Russia and Global Focus
288. In Policy in the Post Crisis Era
- Author:
- Vinod K Aggarwal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Berkeley APEC Study Center
- Abstract:
- In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007- 08, observers of international markets disagreed about the likely response of the World Trade Organization.1 Pointing to a contraction of global trade flows by 9 percent in 2009, some commentators suggested that the WTO’s rules were incapable of stemming a tide of increasing protectionism.2 Still, others cautioned that overzealous regulation of national industrial policies by the WTO would limit distressed governments’ ability to cope. Who was right?
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
289. How can developing cities provide better water to their residents?
- Author:
- Benjamin Edwards and Mohammad Hamze
- Publication Date:
- 11-2015
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- The world’s urban population is projected to add 2.5 billion people by 2050, with nearly 90 percent of the increase concentrated in Asia and Africa. The provision of safe, clean drinking water in urban settings is a high priority for international development, and justifiably so. Drinking water that is protected from contamination improves health, education, and economic growth, yet roughly 150 million urban dwellers do not have access, with numbers on the rise. Fortunately, the problem has not gone unrecognized. An expansive body of work explores the causes of water market failures and the policy interventions national governments can use to mitigate them. This body of work, however, has paid less heed to local governments’ role in implementing those policies, a critical link in the chain of service provision.
- Topic:
- Development, Government, Water, and Cities
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Asia, and Global Focus
290. A more comprehensive picture of local public spending in global health and education
- Author:
- Jameson Boex and Benjamin Edwards
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- As we approach this year’s deadline for achieving the UN’s Millennium Development Goals, the global development community is trying to decide how to make the new targets for 2030 more responsive and appropriate to local needs. An important piece of this debate concerns the role of local governments, and how local spending on public services such as health care and education could promote human welfare. A growing body of research explores this relationship, but so far the focus of most studies has been limited to spending by elected local governments, with the assumption that this type of local spending is the only type that matters. Yet many local entities responsible for service delivery in the developing world are not elected. Excluding resources provided directly by central government ministries or their local administrative arms ignores a rich and complicated story of how different levels of government interact to provide basic services.
- Topic:
- Development, Education, Government, and Health
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
291. What defines a “city”?
- Author:
- Ammar A. Malik and Julia Hagen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2015
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- Readers love lists, especially city rankings. There are lists that rank the world’s leading cities of opportunity, the most sustainable cities, the bike-friendliest cities, the top shopping cities, and even the most competitive cities in the future. What they all share is an attempt to measure cities. But what defines a city? The answer isn’t as clear-cut as it seems. Every year, leading corporations fund the publication of an increasingly large number of benchmarking studies, which generate significant interest in the media. Even the UN has jumped on this bandwagon by adapting, for the first time, an urban goal within the Sustainable Development Goals framework. However, the basic question of what constitutes a city is often defined inconsistently across rankings. This could leave general-interest readers and policymakers, confused, or worse—misled.
- Topic:
- United Nations, Urbanization, Sustainable Development Goals, and Cities
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
292. The Long Road to Tehran: The Iran Nuclear Deal in Perspective
- Author:
- Brian Gibson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- LSE IDEAS
- Abstract:
- This Strategic Update traces the story of this major diplomatic breakthrough, through the historical context of long term US-Iran relations and the tireless international effort to prevent domestic political crises from derailing the negotiations.
- Topic:
- International Political Economy and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
293. Monetary Policy, Trend Inflation and the Great Moderation: An Alternative Interpretation - Comment
- Author:
- Jonas E. Arias, Guido Ascari, Nicola Branzoli, and Efrem Castelnuovo
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Working with a small-scale calibrated New-Keynesian model, Coibion and Gorodnichenko (2011) find that the reduction in trend inflation during Volcker's mandate was a key factor behind the Great Moderation. We revisit this finding with an estimated New-Keynesian model with trend inflation and no indexation based on Christiano, Eichenbaum and Evans (2005). First, our simulations confirm Coibion and Gorodnichenko's (2011) main finding. Second, we show that a trend inflation-immune Taylor rule based on economic theory can avoid indeterminacy even at high levels of trend inflation such as those observed in the 1970s.
- Topic:
- Economics, Monetary Policy, Economic Theory, and Inflation
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
294. Risk Choices and Compensation Design
- Author:
- Mark Carey and Bo Sun
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We analyze the impact of bad-tail risks on managerial pay functions, especially the decision to pay managers in stock or in options. In contrast to conventional wisdom, we find that options are often a superior vehicle for limiting managerial incentives to take bad-tail risks while providing incentives to exert effort. Arrangements similar to collar options are able to incent the desired project choice in wider range of circumstances than call options or stock. However, information requirements appear high. We briefly explore alternatives with features similar to maluses and clawbacks, which are a bit like weakening the limited liability of managers.
- Topic:
- Labor Issues, Risk, Business Management, Stock Markets, and Wage Growth
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
295. Large Capital Inflows, Sectoral Allocation, and Economic Performance
- Author:
- Gianluca Benigno, Nathan Converse, and Luca Fornaro
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- This paper describes the stylized facts characterizing periods of exceptionally large capital inflows in a sample of 70 middle- and high-income countries over the last 35 years. We identify 155 episodes of large capital inflows and find that these events are typically accompanied by an economic boom and followed by a slump. Moreover, during episodes of large capital inflows capital and labor shift out of the manufacturing sector, especially if the inflows begin during a period of low international interest rates. However, accumulating reserves during the period in which capital inflows are unusually large appears to limit the extent of labor reallocation. Larger credit booms and capital inflows during the episodes we identify increase the probability of a sudden stop occurring during or immediately after the episode. In addition, the severity of the post-inflows recession is significantly related to the extent of labor reallocation during the boom, with a stronger shift of labor out of manufacturing during the inflows episode associated with a sharper contraction in the aftermath of the episode.
- Topic:
- Industrial Policy, Labor Issues, Capital Flows, Manufacturing, and Capital
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
296. Risk, Financial Development and Firm Dynamics
- Author:
- Bernardo Morias
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- I document that the average productivity of firms tends to increase, and its variance to decrease, as they age. These two facts combined suggest that managers learn to reduce their mistakes as they operate. I develop a quantitative framework mimicking these dynamics and find that young firms have substantially higher financing costs due to lower and riskier returns. In this scenario, a reduction in the financial development of an economy raises disproportionately the cost of credit of young-productive firms increasing the input misallocation within this subgroup. To test the validity of the theory, I find that the data confirms some novel predictions on a series of firm-level moments. Finally, I show that introducing these two facts allows the model to better explain the relation between financial and economic development.
- Topic:
- Development, Economic Theory, Risk, Fiscal Policy, Models, and Productivity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
297. International Financial Spillovers to Emerging Market Economies: How Important Are Economic Fundamentals?
- Author:
- Shaghil Ahmed, Brahima Coulibaly, and Andrei Zlate
- Publication Date:
- 05-2015
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- We assess the importance of economic fundamentals in the transmission of international shocks to financial markets in various emerging market economies (EMEs). Our analysis covers the so-called taper-tantrum episode of 2013 and six earlier episodes of severe EME-wide financial stress since the mid-1990s. Cross-country regressions lead us to the following results: (1) EMEs with relatively better economic fundamentals suffered less deterioration in financial markets during the 2013 taper-tantrum episode. (2) Differentiation among EMEs set in quite early and persisted throughout this episode. (3) Controlling for economic fundamentals, we also find that, during the taper tantrum, financial conditions deteriorated more in those EMEs that had earlier experienced larger private capital inflows and greater exchange rate appreciation. (4) For earlier episodes, we find little evidence of investor differentiation across EMEs being explained by differences in their relative vulnerabilities during EME crises of the 1990s and early 2000s. (5) That said, differentiation across EMEs based on fundamentals does not appear to be unique to the 2013 episode. Differences in economic fundamentals played a role in explaining the heterogeneous EME financial market responses during the global financial crisis of 2008, and the role of fundamentals appeared to progressively increase through the European crisis in 2011 and subsequently the 2013 taper tantrum.
- Topic:
- Economics, Emerging Markets, Markets, Exchange Rate Policy, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
298. Managing Conflict after Civil War: The Power-Sharing and Power-Dividing Approaches
- Author:
- Matthew Hoddie
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Finnish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- This paper considers two institutional alternatives for managing conflict following the negotiated settlement of civil war. The most common set of institutional structures that former civil war combatants adopt are associated with power sharing. These power-sharing institutions may be constructed across the political, military, territorial, and economic dimensions of state power. Recent research suggests that post-civil war states that specify greater numbers of power-sharing institutions within their peace agreements tend to have a lower risk of the re-initiation of conflict. At the same time, critics of power sharing emphasize that these mechanisms lack a capacity to foster common identities among rivals and have characteristics that are inconsistent with the principles of democracy. An alternative to power sharing for states that are emerging from civil war is the adoption of power-dividing institutions. The core features of the power-dividing approach are limiting the scope of government authority and establishing a wide-ranging system of checks and balances intended to manage the competing interests within a country. In many respects, these institutional structures parallel those established by the constitution of the United States. Those who are sceptical about the power-dividing approach, however, point out that these institutions have not yet been adopted in any state emerging from civil war. It thus remains unclear how effective these structures would be at managing conflict within this particularly challenging environment.
- Topic:
- Civil War, Political Power Sharing, Democracy, Conflict, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
299. Inference Based on SVARs Identified with Sign and Zero Restrictions: Theory and Applications
- Author:
- Jonas E. Arias, Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, and Daniel F. Waggoner
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Are optimism shocks an important source of business cycle fluctuations? Are deficit-financed tax cuts better than deficit-financed spending to increase output? These questions have been previously studied using SVARs identified with sign and zero restrictions and the answers have been positive and definite in both cases. While the identification of SVARs with sign and zero restrictions is theoretically attractive because it allows the researcher to remain agnostic with respect to the responses of the key variables of interest, we show that current implementation of these techniques does not respect the agnosticism of the theory. These algorithms impose additional sign restrictions on variables that are seemingly unrestricted that bias the results and produce misleading confidence intervals. We provide an alternative and efficient algorithm that does not introduce any additional sign restriction, hence preserving the agnosticism of the theory. Without the additional restrictions, it is hard to support the claim that either optimism shocks are an important source of business cycle fluctuations or deficit-financed tax cuts work best at improving output. Our algorithm is not only correct but also faster than current ones.
- Topic:
- Economics, Business, Tax Systems, Economic Theory, and Deficit
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
300. Sovereign Debt Crises
- Author:
- Ricardo Correa and Horacio Sapriza
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
- Abstract:
- Sovereign debt crises have been recurrent events over the past two centuries. In recent years, the timing of sovereign crises has coincided or has directly followed banking crises. The link between sovereigns and banks tightened as the contingent liability that the banking sector represents for the sovereign grew, as financial "safety nets" became more common. This chapter analyzes the transmission channels between sovereigns and banks, with a focus on the effect of sovereign distress on bank solvency and financing. It then highlights the notable cost to the real economy of the close connection between sovereigns and banks. Breaking the "feedback loop" between these two sectors should be an important policy priority.
- Topic:
- Debt, Sovereignty, Banking, and Economic Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus