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2. CONTAINMENT 2.0: SANCTIONS FOR THE LONG HAUL
- Author:
- David A. Lake
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The West is not imposing coercive sanctions on Russia to stop its current aggression. No one seriously expects that the sanctions will cause President Putin to withdraw from Ukraine. NATO made clear before the war that its members will not defend Ukraine with military force. The European members have also, as expected, carved out exceptions to the sanctions regime for oil and gas so as not to impose too much pain on their own economies. Putin anticipated the general scope of the sanctions likely to be imposed on Russia and decided it was worth invading Ukraine anyways. While he may have been surprised by the extent of the sanctions and unity of NATO so far, this is not enough to alter his calculus. Indeed, he is doubling down on the original plan. He also knows that he has other weapons and forms of coercion against the West up his sleeve. Rather, we are seeing the birth of a possible Containment 2.0, a forced decoupling of Russia from the Western international economy. This is a long-term, not a short-term, strategy. The point is to undermine the Russian economy, stifle its technological progress, deny Russians a standard of living comparable to that of the West, and break support for the regime over time. In doing so, the West undermines Russia’s ability to compete militarily, aiming to forestall further Ukraines, and weakens Putin’s hand at home and abroad.
- Topic:
- NATO, International Trade and Finance, Sanctions, Economy, and Containment
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Global Focus, and United States of America
3. Fact Sheet: Global Demonstrations Against the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Sam Jones
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Following the Russian invasion, a wave of demonstrations in solidarity with Ukraine spread around the world. Between 24 February and 4 March, ACLED records more than 1,800 demonstrations in support of Ukraine and against Russian aggression globally. During this time, demonstrations were reported across at least 93 countries and territories (see map below). Nearly all of these demonstrations — over 99% — were peaceful (i.e. protesters engaged in neither violence nor destructive activity).
- Topic:
- Solidarity, Conflict, Demonstrations, and Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Global Focus
4. Big data and national security: A guide for Australian policymakers
- Author:
- Miah Hammond-Errey
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Data abundance, digital connectivity, and ubiquitous technology now enable near complete coverage of human lives across the planet, often in real-time. The Covid-19 pandemic, by forcing more interactions online and greater social reliance on technology, has significantly added to the global pool of data. Advances in the scale, application, and commercial uses of data significantly outpace regulation of the big data landscape. Technical and analytical capabilities that are essential for the functioning of societies are increasingly concentrated in the hands of a small number of commercial entities. The implications of big data for surveillance, real or potential interference, and kinetic war are underappreciated in policy and public discussions. Identifying and protecting the uses of critical data should be a national security priority for government on par with safeguarding critical digital infrastructure.
- Topic:
- Government, National Security, Science and Technology, Surveillance, and Data
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
5. Foresight and its application in ministries of foreign affairs
- Author:
- Javier Ignacio Santander
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
- Abstract:
- Based on previous research regarding foresight capabilities of ministries of foreign affairs, this work focuses on the modern concept of foresight and of its application to foreign relations. Specifically, it aims to provide a summary of similiarities observed in the way in which foreign affairs ministries have developed foresight capacity.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
6. Sanctions and the Economic Consequences of Higher Oil Prices
- Author:
- Christof Ruhl
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Sanctions against the Russian Federation are developing so fast that it is hard to keep track of them and even harder to see a consistent narrative as events unfold. But there is one. Russia is the world’s largest exporter of energy and commodities. A persistent balance of payment surplus is the source of its financial strength, in terms of both current income and the financial assets previously accumulated by “fortress Russia.” Oil, gas, and coal exports constitute the most valuable revenue streams and are therefore prime targets of sanctions policy.[1] The problem is that energy sanctions will backfire badly if they lead to price increases large enough to derail the economic performance of sanctioning countries.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
7. Hydrogen: A Hot Commodity Lacking Sufficient Statistics
- Author:
- Anne-Sophie Corbeau
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Hydrogen has become one of the most debated topics in the energy industry. As an energy vector,[1] hydrogen has been touted as a possible path to decarbonize energy sectors that are considered difficult to electrify, such as heavy-duty transport. While hydrogen expansion faces challenges associated with introducing it into new sectors and decreasing the cost of green (or low-emission) hydrogen, major economies such as China, the EU, and the United States have been looking to integrate its use into their decarbonization strategies.[2] Demand for hydrogen could more than quintuple in a global net-zero-carbon-emissions scenario.[3] Given that hydrogen’s role is expected to increase significantly over the coming decade and expand into new sections of the energy system, it is essential to have more clarity on its current and future demand profile. The energy community is used to relying on statistics for more traditional fuels such as oil or natural gas; they enable analysts and investors to follow market developments, identify trends, and anticipate investment needs and opportunities. For policy makers, they can help to measure progress toward decarbonization objectives or against targets set within their hydrogen strategies as well as help them compare their activity with other countries’ developments. Understanding demand, production, and trade through data transparency is also a key element in energy security.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Decarbonization, and Hydrogen
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
8. Creating an Enabling Environment for Sustainable Water Infrastructure Financing
- Author:
- Conor M. Savoy and Janina Staguhn
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Water presents a significant global development challenge as crises over resources and access to clean water are becoming more extreme due to climate change. To reach the most disadvantaged communities in rural areas, adequate infrastructure is going to be integral. It is estimated that water infrastructure will require an additional $22.5 trillion by 2050, and to achieve Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 6, financing would need to triple to $114 billion per year. As with other forms of infrastructure, water requires more than simply building reservoirs, pipes, and holding tanks. For true sustainable infrastructure, donors and local governments should also invest in support to maintain infrastructure and create a regulatory environment that enables continued improvement. To successfully finance water infrastructure, there must be an understanding of what the current financing landscape looks like and how the United States, its Group of Seven (G7) allies, and multilateral partners should prioritize financing, especially on a local level.
- Topic:
- Environment, International Cooperation, Water, Infrastructure, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
9. Spheres of Influence in a Multipolar World
- Author:
- Andrew Latham
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Defense Priorities
- Abstract:
- Throughout the modern era, great powers have routinely staked out geographic zones within which they have limited the autonomy of weaker states—often as buffer zones between themselves and potential adversaries or rival empires. Since the nineteenth century, these geopolitical spaces have typically been referred to as spheres of influence. The specific configuration of such spheres depends largely on the distribution of power in the international system. During moments of multi-polarity, multiple great powers will attempt to assert spheres of influence; during the Cold War era of bipolarity, the international order was defined by two superpower-dominated spheres; during the post-Cold War moment of unipolarity, the U.S. alone was able to assert a sphere of influence. Given this, it was inevitable that the return of multipolarity from the 2010s on would result in the crystallization of a new, multipolar, configuration of spheres of influence—one involving multiple great powers each asserting their own sphere. The relevant question now, therefore, is not if the transition to a world of multiple spheres of influence will take place (given the structural changes at the level of international order, it most certainly will), but how Washington should manage this development in ways that are both realistic and conducive to U.S. interests. The most realistic answer to this how question is to adopt a differentiated strategy that recognizes that, while the U.S. will not be able to prevent spheres of influence as a feature of international order tout court, it may be able to thwart specific spheres in certain specific circumstances.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Multipolarity, and International Order
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
10. CONFLICT MINERALS LEGISLATION: SHOOTING AT THE WRONG TARGET… AGAIN
- Author:
- Marijke Verpoorten and Nik Stoop
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- On January 1, 2021, the European Conflict Minerals Act came into force. It aims to regulate the trade in four minerals—tin, tantalum, tungsten, and gold, also known as 3TG—that are often sourced from conflict-affected countries where the profits may allow armed groups to finance their activities. The regulation aims to break the link between minerals and conflict by ensuring that European Union (EU)-based companies only import minerals from conflict-free sources. If companies import minerals from conflict regions, the law requires them to report where the minerals were mined, the location of processing and trade, and the taxes and fees that were paid.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Conflict, and Minerals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
11. IS CLIMATE CHANGE DRIVING GLOBAL CONFLICT?
- Author:
- Nina von Uexkull and Halvard Buhaug
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- While former US President Donald Trump frequently denied man-made climate change, the Biden administration has pledged to make climate change a priority, including for national security. In line with years of thinking within the defense sector, the Biden-Harris team refers to climate change as a “threat multiplier,” pointing to risks of regional instability and resource competition driven by worsening environmental conditions. This perspective also aligns with the initiatives of other countries that have pushed climate security in the UN Security Council and other international bodies.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Climate Change, International Security, Conflict, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
12. A Roundtable on Lauren Turek, To Bring the Good News to All Nations: Evangelical Influence on Human Rights and U.S. Foreign Relations
- Author:
- Andrew Preston, Darren Dochuk, Christopher Cannon Jones, Kelly J. Shannon, Vanessa Walker, and Lauren F. Turek
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- Historians of the United States and the world are getting religion, and our understanding of American foreign relations is becoming more rounded and more comprehensive as a result. Religion provides much of the ideological fuel that drives America forward in the world, which is the usual approach historians have taken in examining the religious influence on diplomacy; it has also sometimes provided the actual nuts-and-bolts of diplomacy, intelligence, and military strategy.1 But historians have not always been able to blend these two approaches. Lauren Turek’s To Bring the Good News to All Nations is thus a landmark because it is both a study of cultural ideology and foreign policy. In tying the two together in clear and compelling ways, based on extensive digging in various archives, Turek sheds a huge amount of new light on America’s mission in the last two decades of the Cold War and beyond. Turek uses the concept of “evangelical internationalism” to explore the worldview of American Protestants who were both theologically and politically conservative, and how they came to wield enough power that they were able to help shape U.S. foreign policy from the 1970s into the twenty-first century. As the formerly dominant liberal Protestants faded in numbers and authority, and as the nation was gripped by the cultural revolutions of the 1960s, evangelicals became the vanguard of a new era in American Christianity. Evangelicals replaced liberal Protestants abroad, too, as the mainline churches mostly abandoned the mission field. The effects on U.S. foreign relations were lasting and profound.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Religion, International Affairs, History, Culture, Book Review, Christianity, and Diplomatic History
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
13. A Roundtable on Christopher Dietrich, A Companion to U.S. Foreign Relations
- Author:
- Thomas W. Zeiler, Grant Madsen, Lauren F. Turek, and Christopher Dietrich
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- When David Anderson, acting as a conduit for editors at the Journal of American History, approached me at a SHAFR meeting in 2007 to write a state-of- the-field essay, I accepted, in part because we were sitting in a bar where I was happily consuming. The offer came with a responsibility to the field. I was serving as an editor of our journal, Diplomatic History, as well as the editor of the digitized version of our bibliography, American Foreign Relations Since 1600: A Guide to the Literature. Because these positions allowed me to survey our vibrant field, accepting the offer seemed natural. And I was honored to be asked to represent us. Did I mention we were drinking? I’m sure that Chris Dietrich accepted the invitation to oversee this next-gen pioneering Companion volume from Peter Coveney, a long-time editorial guru and booster of our field at Wiley-Blackwell, for similar reasons. This, even though there were times when, surrounded by books and articles and reviews that piled up to my shoulders in my office (yes, I read in paper, mostly), I whined, cursed, and, on occasion, wept about the amount of sources. What kept me going was not only how much I learned about the field, including an appreciation for great scholarship written through traditional and new approaches, but both the constancy and transformations over the years, much of it due to pressure from beyond SHAFR that prompted internal reflections. Vigorous debate, searing critiques, sensitive adaptation, and bold adoption of theory and methods had wrought a revolution in the field of U.S. diplomatic history, a moniker itself deemed outmoded.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, History, and Diplomatic History
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
14. A Roundtable on Michael Kimmage, The Abandonment of the West
- Author:
- Christopher McKnight Nichols, Heather Marie Stur, Brad Simpson, Andy Rotter, and Michael Kimmage
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- The title of this book evokes numerous Donald Trump tweets, statements, and threats over the past five years. It also raises questions: was Trump pro-West or not, and how does his administration and its policies compare to those of his predecessors? Trumpism and the related, inchoate policies of “America First” were firmly positioned against the organizational structures and assumptions of the so-called liberal international order, or rules-based order. Trump’s targets ranged from NATO to the World Health Organization (WHO). From his speech at Trump Tower announcing his run for office to statements we heard during his efforts to contest the results of the 2020 election, Trump promulgated racist, particularist claims about which peoples and groups counted (white ones), which immigrants should be allowed in (northern European) and which should be banned (Muslims, those from “shithole” countries), and what wider heritages they fit into or “good genes” they were blessed with.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, Liberal Order, Donald Trump, Anti-Westernism, Rivalry, Clash of Civilizations, and America First
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
15. Mid-Year Update: 10 Conflicts to Worry About in 2021
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- In ACLED’s special report on 10 conflicts to worry about at the start of 2021, we identified a range of flashpoints and emerging crises where violent political disorder was likely to evolve or worsen over the course of the year: Ethiopia, India & Pakistan, Myanmar, Haiti, Belarus, Colombia, Armenia & Azerbaijan, Yemen, Mozambique, and the Sahel.1 Our mid-year update revisits these 10 cases, tracking key developments in political violence and protest activity during the first half of 2021 and analyzing trends to watch in the coming months.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Conflict, Protests, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, India, Yemen, Colombia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Haiti, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Belarus, Sahel, and Global Focus
16. Violence Targeting Women in Politics: Trends in Targets, Types, and Perpetrators of Political Violence
- Author:
- Roudabeh Kishi
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The addition of identity types to ACLED data on political violence targeting women sheds new light on the physical threats to women’s participation in political processes, such as running for or holding office, supporting or voting for political candidates, leading human rights campaigns or civil society initiatives, and more. This report analyzes the expanded data to unpack key trends in violence targeting women in politics. Download the expanded data and read the updated Political Violence Targeting Women FAQs for more information about ACLED methodology.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Politics, Women, and Violence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
17. ACLED 2020: The Year in Review
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- One year since the official start of the pandemic in March 2020, COVID-19 has killed more than two million people and brought at least half the earth’s population under lockdown (New York Times, 11 March 2021; New York Times, 3 April 2020). The health crisis has had major impacts on worldwide conflict and disorder patterns, contributing to an overall decrease in political violence levels last year even as it fueled an increase in demonstration activity. And while the pandemic’s effects have been global in scale, they have not been felt equally across conflict contexts: although violence declined on the aggregate level, it rose in nearly half the world’s countries. As vaccine distribution accelerates and countries relax public health restrictions, conflict levels are expected to increase throughout 2021(for more, see ACLED’s special report: Ten Conflicts to Worry About in 2021). Last year, ACLED expanded data collection to Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia, the United States, and all of Europe, achieving near global coverage. Our 2020 annual report reviews the past 12 months of data on political violence and demonstration activity around the world.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Demonstrations
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
18. A Year of COVID-19
- Author:
- Roudabeh Kishi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- March 2021 marks the first anniversary of the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). One year on, this report explores ACLED’s special coverage of the pandemic’s impact on political violence and protest trends around the world – analyzing changes in demonstration activity, state repression, mob attacks, overall rates of armed conflict, and more through the COVID-19 Disorder Tracker.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Conflict, COVID-19, and Demonstrations
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
19. Are we facing a wave of conflict in high-income countries?
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Daniel Mack, Céline Monnier, Nendirmwa Noel, Paul von Chamier, and Leah Zamore
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- The recent wave of violent protests and unrest across the developed world – the storming of the US Capitol during the electoral college process and the riots in the Netherlands, among others – questions the assumption that high-income countries have become immune to large-scale internal political violence. Are we facing a new wave of high-income conflict? At a minimum, increased violent unrest, political assassinations, and domestic terrorism in the next ten years seem possible, unless governments focus on avoiding impunity and establishing shared understanding of facts, reducing inequality and prejudice, and building institutional resilience. This analysis examines whether these recent events augur a wider shift in conflict risk to high-income countries, akin to the shift seen from low to middle-income countries 20 years ago. Given these events, this analysis systematically reviews conflict risks in high-income countries, as well as offers a framework that has been widely applied in the developing world to examine the risk factors for violent conflict in wealthy countries, including second generation impacts of COVID-19.
- Topic:
- Conflict, Protests, COVID-19, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
20. How can we work towards economic recovery for all? Financing for Development: the issues, challenges, and opportunities in 2021
- Author:
- Sarah Cliffe, Karina Gerlach, and Leah Zamore
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- 2021, we all hope, will be the year of recovery. If COVID-19 vaccines are rolled out at scale, including in the developing world, global economic recovery will be large. But that in itself ensures neither that all countries will be included in the recovery, nor that all people within each country will see the gains. A rising tide, as we have seen only too well since US president John F. Kennedy first used the phrase in 1963, does not lift all boats. Elsewhere, CIC has analyzed the high demand for transformative policies in high- and low-income countries alike since the COVID-19 crisis began, including policies for domestic action on inequality and socioeconomic exclusion. This piece takes a more global view and considers how to ensure that all countries benefit, and examines the issues, challenges, and opportunities in financing for development. It looks first at the key political messages that explain why 2021 should be a year of urgent, ambitious global action for shared economic recovery; secondly at the measures under discussion (which are expanded in an annex); thirdly at the political interests at play; and fourthly at foreseeable scenarios for agreement. Last, we outline the calendar of relevant policy meetings this year and the challenge of orchestrating progress between them.
- Topic:
- Governance, Reform, Finance, Multilateralism, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
21. It’s Time to Go Back to Basics of Governance
- Author:
- Nanjala Nyabola
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic is an opportunity to re-evaluate the principles or ideas that are at the heart of theories of government, that is the fundamentals of governance and public theory. What is government for, but also what should government do and how. Engaging with the crucial philosophical questions of governance is integral to building back better: going back to basics is a major step in figuring out how to prevent mistakes from happening again. The social contract is one such principle: the idea of a social contract is central to answering the question of what governments are for: explaining why people obey laws, providing answers to why we live in societies, and why we abide by social rules and norms. Recognizing the ongoing debates, national and international, around the meaning and origins of the term social contract, this paper by Nanjala Nyabola tries to point to some of the important thinking from the south and from non-western sources and traditions that have helped shape modern understanding of social contract theory. It is not intended to be a comprehensive review, in such a short paper, but rather a selection that reflects the richness and variety of such sources and how they have impacted thinking throughout the ages. Overall, looking at ideas of social contracts outside Western philosophical tradition reminds us that it is not just about the form of the social contract or that all political organizations must be identical. These theories also remind us that compulsion and punishment are not a strong foundation for strong systems of governance. We have to create societies that people want to live in.
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Reform, Fragile States, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
22. Treaty Allies Matter for US Foreign Policy Experts—but They Are Not Indispensable
- Author:
- Sibel Oktay, Paul Poast, Dina Smeltz, and Craig Kafura
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Chicago Council on Global Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Council's polling experts examine how American foreign policy experts think of the term "allies," and whether variations in thinking matter for US foreign policy decisions. “America is back,” President Joseph Biden pronounced at the State Department in February 2021. His comment ostensibly meant the United States was returning to the international fold after leaving a global leadership void during the Trump years. The previous administration had downplayed—even discounted—American alliances as key US foreign policy tools. “We will repair our alliances and engage with the world once again, not to meet yesterday’s challenges, but today’s and tomorrow’s,” Biden stated. At the NATO summit four months later, Biden reiterated his administration’s key message and commitment to the alliance. Emblematic of this commitment, he and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson also signed a “New Atlantic Charter” recommitting both nations to their “alliances and partners.” The United States is unique in the world in terms of security alliances. The country enjoys “the largest and most enduring military footprint” in recent history. From military bases to providing training and material assistance, this footprint is largely enabled through allies. Hence, it is perhaps unsurprising that recent surveys show a perception among Americans that alliances largely benefit the United States. But what is meant by the term “allies”? Given the variety of military partnerships and relationships maintained by the United States, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that the term “ally” is used to describe countries across this range of relationships. Some countries have a formal defensive treaty with the United States, while others are merely recipients of US military financial aid. How do American foreign policy experts think of the term “allies,” and does variation in such thinking matter?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Public Opinion, Partnerships, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus and United States of America
23. How the United States Can Support Nascent Political Parties
- Author:
- Patrick Quirk and Jan Surotchak
- Publication Date:
- 05-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Council on International Policy (CIP)
- Abstract:
- Supporting democracy and human rights overseas is front and center in the Biden administration’s foreign policy. The White House has committed to hold a “summit for democracy” this year, vocally condemned human rights abuses by China, and called for budget increases in foreign assistance and diplomacy critical to execute its democracy agenda abroad. As the Biden team designs this agenda, it will take stock of existing democracy assistance approaches and toolkits to make sure they address the current landscape of threats (i.e., a rise in Russian and Chinese malign influence) and changing needs of democracy partners on the ground (i.e., training on new technology). One area that is in desperate need of an update is how the U.S. helps strengthen political parties abroad, something it has done since the 1980s. The U.S. approach to supporting parties has not kept pace with the evolution of these organizations over the last ten years. Increasingly, political parties are taking novel forms that arise from so called “people power” movements and often focus more on mobilizing voters than formulating policy. One of the four most common types of parties today are those that emerge from mass protest movements and widespread latent dissatisfaction with traditional parties. Examples include the Five Star Movement in Italy, the Union to Save Romania, the New Conservative Party in Latvia, and Semilla in Guatemala. Getting support to this party type ‘right’ is important because many of the countries where these entities are emerging matter for U.S. interests. In both the Czech Republic and Slovakia – NATO allies on the front line of countering Russian and Chinese influence – new, anti-establishment parties are running the government, as traditional parties have struggled with accusations of corruption and failure to meet citizen needs. In Mexico and Brazil, both major strategic partners of the United States, emergent political organizations have taken power. In Iraq, citizens protesting government corruption and inefficiencies have formed several new parties to contest the October 2021 elections and challenge the political establishment. Yet in these and other contexts, the United States lacks an approach to structure its support of such nascent parties. Here, we outline recommendations for selecting which parties to support and then a framework to maximize effectiveness of U.S. assistance to them.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Cooperation, Democracy, Political Parties, Influence, and Partisanship
- Political Geography:
- North America, Global Focus, and United States of America
24. PTSS Virtual Global Alumni Community of Interest Workshop: The Impact of the COVID–19 Pandemic on Terrorism and Counterterrorism
- Author:
- James K. Wither
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper presents the findings of a George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies (GCMC) Counterterrorism (CT) Virtual Global Alumni Community of Interest (COI) workshop held on January 20-21, 2021. The objectives of the workshop were as follows: Analyze the effect of the coronavirus pandemic on terrorism and CT nationally and internationally. Identify the extent to which the pandemic has created vulnerabilities that terrorists have been able to exploit to mount attacks and/or attract new recruits. Explore the extent to which the pandemic might make societies more vulnerable to terrorism and irregular warfare in the longer term and the reasons why this could happen. Formulate policy recommendations for the global counterterrorism community from the perspective of GCMC CT Alumni. The virtual workshop was structured around four panels, each with two alumni panelists with practical or academic expertise on the selected topics. GCMC CT faculty acted as panel moderators. The panels examined the impact of the pandemic on terrorist financing as well as terrorism and CT in the Middle East, the Americas, and the Sahel in Africa. Thirty selected global alumni took part in the workshop and raised additional questions and comments after the formal panel sessions. Initially, planning for the COI took place in spring 2020, when it was wrongly assumed that the worst of the pandemic would be over by 2021 and assessments of its impact would, therefore, be relatively conclusive. However, given the continued threat posed by COVID-19, with countries around the world still suffering from its impact, the assessments below must be regarded as interim. Therefore, the workshop made no specific policy recommendations. Marshall Center CT faculty members, along with their colleagues at the Daniel K. Inouye Asia–Pacific Center for Security Studies (APCSS), have researched the impact of the pandemic on terrorism since March 2020.1 The COI followed a survey of alumni on the impact of the pandemic on terrorism and CT conducted in October 2020.2 Over four hundred military and civilian counterterrorism practitioners responded to the survey from Europe, North and South America, Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. Unsurprisingly, many of the conclusions from the recent workshop are similar to impact statements in the earlier survey.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Terrorism, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
25. If you Can't Beat Them, Join Them: Should States Embrace Bitcoin?
- Author:
- Jesse Colzani
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Bitcoin – the most secure and well-established technology to store value[1] – was created in 2008 to challenge the state’s centralised monopoly on money. It is a digital currency worth 1 trillion US dollars that knows no boundaries and is not controlled by any central authority. Although it is considered a threat to the established order, countries and institutional actors are gradually realising Bitcoin can also be a tool to advance their economic and geopolitical interests. Today, governments find themselves in the difficult position of having to decide whether Bitcoin should be integrated into their economies and governance structures or if they should continue to oppose, block or seek to co-opt the digital currency. But to understand Bitcoin and make an informed decision, one has to first appreciate the different components of its ecosystem.
- Topic:
- Political Economy, Governance, Currency, Digital Policy, and Bitcoin
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
26. China, climate politics and COP26
- Author:
- Sam Geall
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- There is no credible emissions pathway towards limiting global warming to 1.5°C without significant movements from China over the next decade to accelerate its energy transition and decarbonisation. China aims to become carbon-neutral by 2060. Yet Beijing is hedging in the near term, in part due to an uncertain global macro and geopolitical environment, and in part due to domestic threats of social instability and economic stagnation. China’s negotiating position at COP26 in Glasgow stands to benefit from support from many developing countries — unless the United States and other rich countries make an effective alternative appeal to the Global South with respect to climate finance, mitigation and adaptation.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- China, Global Focus, and United States of America
27. Democracy and the Challenges of Climate Change
- Author:
- Kevin Casas-Zamora
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Climate change, being one of the most pressing issues today, has been addressed by many countries at the local, regional and global level. In this issue briefing, Dr. Kevin Casas-Zamora, Secretary-General of the International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance discusses the challenges, strengths, and opportunities that democracy faces in tackling climate change. He states that the main challenges in tackling climate change are based on short-termism, self-referring mechanisms, and elements of governing capacities. Furthermore, he argues that democracy shows strength in this sense as a system of governance that allows for a strong civil society, free flow of information, societal consensus, and peaceful transformations of conflicts.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Democracy, and Participatory Budgeting
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
28. Freeing Fiscal Space: A human rights imperative in response to COVID-19
- Author:
- Ignacio Saiz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and Peace
- Abstract:
- Of the many dimensions of inequality that the COVID-19 pandemic has magnified, inequality between countries is one of the most glaring, yet one of the least effectively addressed. While the pandemic’s immediate health impacts have been felt in countries across all income levels, its eco- nomic consequences have been particularly dev- astating in countries of the Global South. Fuelling these inequalities is the disparity of resources that countries count on to respond to the crisis. International cooperation has never been more essential to address this disparity and enable all countries to draw on the resources they need to tackle the pandemic and its economic fallout. Besides the provision of emergency financial support, wealthier countries and international financial institutions (IFIs) need to cooperate by lifting the barriers their debt and tax policies and practices impose on the fiscal space of low- and middle-income countries. As this article explores, such cooperation is not only a global public health imperative. It is also a binding human rights obli- gation. Framing it as such could play an impor- tant role in generating the accountability and political will that has so far been sorely lacking.
- Topic:
- Fiscal Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
29. Risk-Limiting Audits: A Guide for Global Use
- Author:
- Erica Shein and Alexandra Brown
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- International Foundation for Electoral Systems
- Abstract:
- Contentious elections are a stress test for governments. Trust is hard won, easily lost and very difficult to restore. Election audits can enhance voters’ confidence in the results, if they are grounded in the law and performed by well-trained officials, and follow a predictable, transparent and observable process. A new guide from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) focuses on the risk-limiting audit (RLA), a type of post-election tabulation audit that relies on statistical evidence to confirm that the election outcome is correct. Compared to other types of audits, RLAs can be more effective and efficient. The U.S. has been the primary laboratory for RLA testing, with more than 60 piloted and 10 states currently requiring or allowing them. A long-time partner of election administrators around the world, IFES is dedicated to expanding the range of tools available to reinforce confidence in the electoral process and ensure that outcomes reflect the will of the voters. Risk-Limiting Audits: A Guide for Global Use considers how RLAs could have global application and utility – particularly to build trust in election results. The guide provides a basic framework for testing RLAs in diverse contexts by outlining foundational prerequisites and operational, legal and regulatory considerations. IFES will continue to refine and expand on this primer as new findings emerge.
- Topic:
- Elections, Risk, and Audit
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
30. Artificial Intelligence and National Security
- Author:
- Levan Bodzashvili
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- The purpose of the following article is, on the one hand, to introduce the current trends in the utilization of artificial intelligence in the field of national security and defense and, on the other hand, to initiate a research discussion in order to determine the necessity and the feasibility of the use of artificial intelligence for small countries like Georgia. We will also seek to define its importance at the strategic level in terms of ensuring integration and military compatibility. The article also incorporates strategic initiatives of a recommendatory nature which should be discussed in the security sphere as well as at the level of research organizations and the government. Artificial intelligence (AI) is the fastest growing field of technology which is already one of the top priorities in the national security strategies of most countries. The reason for this is that artificial intelligence technologies can alter the ways war is conducted.1 It enables defense, military, cyber security, intelligence and counterintelligence, information and cyber operations, logistics, manufacturing and strategic management/control of autonomous military vehicles. It has already been used by the United States, Israel, China, Russia and many other countries. Artificial intelligence also plays an important role in anticipating and planning national and geopolitical events such as, for example, the program of the director of the United States Intelligence Agency (IARPA)2 which conducts constant research in this area as well as more than 140 operational and research projects of the Central Intelligence Agency which use artificial intelligence. An important and also revolutionary project is SAGE3 which was developed by the Universities of Fordham, Stanford and Columbia in conjunction with the Intelligence Agency and which predicts geopolitical events through artificial intelligence-based projections. High-precision algorithms enable the predicting of events which is a crucial factor in reinsuring national security risks and threats.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, and Artificial Intelligence
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
31. The Remittance Effect: A Lifeline for Developing Economies Through The Pandemic and into Recovery
- Author:
- Oxford Economics
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Oxford Economics
- Abstract:
- The rising value of remittance flows into developing countries in recent years is often not widely appreciated. At a macro level, remittances support growth and are less volatile than other private capital flows, tending to be relatively stable through the business cycle. At a micro level, remittances benefit recipient households in developing countries by providing an additional source of income and lower incidences of extreme poverty. Remittances act as a form of 'social insurance', supporting households' capabilities to resist economic shocks. Remittances help recipient households to increase spending on essential goods and services, invest in healthcare and education, as well as allowing them to build their assets, both liquid (cash) and fixed (property), enhancing access to financial services and investment opportunities. Understanding the role and importance of remittances is particularly important at the current juncture, with the global economy experiencing a uniquely sharp and synchronized shock as a result of COVID-19. This report examines the available evidence on remittance flows and their potential economic effects. The report explores and shows how remittance flows remain a crucial lifeline in supporting developing economies through the current pandemic crisis and into the recovery. Although remittances slowed during the pandemic, they remained more resilient than other private capital flows, making them even more important as a source of foreign inflows for receiving countries. While the World Bank estimates that remittance flows to developing countries (low-and-middle income economies) contracted by 7.0% in 2020, this decline is likely to have been far less severe than the downturn in private investor capital. Looking forward, the World Bank predicts that remittance flows to developing countries will contract by a further 7.5% in 2021. But the outlook remains subject to a high degree of uncertainty with both upside and downside risks. A wider set of dynamics – including central bank data outturns for 2020, economic outlooks for the world economy in 2021, survey data and remittance consumer market fundamentals – suggest that while there are downside risks, there is also potential that 2020 and 2021 will not turn out as weak as predicted by the World Bank and for a period of strong remittance growth in the medium-term as sender economies recover and demand from developing economies remains high.
- Topic:
- Development, Recovery, Economic Development, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
32. COVID-19 and the Global Vaccine Race
- Author:
- Lorenza Errighi
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- If 2020 was the year of “mask diplomacy”, as countries raced to tackle the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and acquire the necessary protective gear and equipment, 2021 is likely to be remembered as the year of “vaccine diplomacy”. Growing competition between states to secure the necessary quantities of vaccines to inoculate their population has already become an established feature of the post-COVID international system and such trends are only likely to increase in the near future. It normally takes up to a decade to transition from the development and testing of a vaccine in a laboratory to its large-scale global distribution. Despite current challenges, the speed of COVID-19 vaccination campaigns is unprecedented. To put an end to the current pandemic – which in one year has led to the loss of 2.6 million lives and triggered the worst economic recession since the Second World War – the goal is to ensure the widest immunisation of the world population in a timeframe of 12 to 18 months. In this context, COVID vaccines emerge as instruments of soft power, as they symbolise, on the one hand, scientific and technological supremacy and, on the other, means to support existing and emerging foreign policy partnerships and alliances with relevant geopolitical implications. From their experimentation in laboratories, to their purchase and distribution, the vaccine has emerged as a significant tool for competition between powers, often associated with the promotion of competing developmental and governance models across third countries.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Health, Vaccine, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
33. The Carbon-Neutral LNG Market: Creating a Framework for Real Emissions Reductions
- Author:
- Erin Blanton and Samer Mosis
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- As governments and companies consider options to decarbonize their energy systems, addressing greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas and liquified natural gas (LNG) will inevitably become a greater concern. Natural gas is viewed by some as potentially providing a bridge in a broad energy transition from dependence on fossil fuels to lower-emission sources. Even with advancements in renewable energy, many forecasts show natural gas will remain core to meeting global energy demand for some time, including as a backup fuel source for renewables.[1] But as the emissions profile of the natural gas value chain has become clearer, estimates of its footprint have increased, raising questions about natural gas’s transitory function. While gas will continue to have a prominent role in the energy mix,[2] without action to better account for, reduce, and offset natural gas and LNG emissions, the breadth and length of its use will increasingly come into question—including by countries with growing energy demand who see diminishing incentive to favor natural gas over high-emitting but fiscally cheap fuel sources, such as coal. Amid these considerations, discussions of value chain carbon intensity and greenhouse gas (GHG) accounting are becoming an important component of LNG trade, giving rise to the concept of “carbon-neutral LNG.” In the trade of carbon-neutral LNG, GHG emissions from supply and/or consumption are accounted for and offset by procuring and retiring carbon credits generated through GHG abatement projects, such as afforestation, farm/soil management, and methane collection.[3] Currently, carbon-neutral LNG makes up a slim portion of global LNG trade, with just 14 cargoes traded transparently since the first was sold in 2019, compared to over 5,000 cargoes of LNG being delivered globally in 2020 alone.[4] By examining the efficacy of the market at this early stage, as this commentary does, areas for improvement in the carbon-neutral LNG trade are highlighted. Procurement of carbon credits does not negate the emissions from natural gas and LNG, and accordingly, adoption of offsets should be paired with a broader and deeper reduction in the emissions intensity of these fossil fuels to ensure they remain conducive to meeting growing energy demand without needlessly jeopardizing global, national, and corporate efforts to reduce emissions. When considering this alongside the important role LNG and natural gas are likely to continue to play in meeting energy demand in key parts of the world during the transition period, it becomes clear that efforts must be made to scale GHG emissions mitigation throughout the value chain, such as through leakage reduction and employment of less carbon-intensive liquefaction technology, as well as to offset remaining emissions through the procurement and retirement of high-quality carbon credits. Serious questions remain about scaling the carbon-neutral LNG trade, including which emissions are accounted for, what methodology is employed in the emissions measurement and verification, and how the emissions are priced—either through a carbon credit or a carbon tax. If these questions are sufficiently addressed, natural gas and LNG may align better with global policy direction and emissions requirements. That is to say, GHG verification and mitigation will be critical to the sustainability of LNG in the decarbonizing global energy stack in the coming decade, with knock-on impacts on long-term LNG contract structure, trade flows, and market pricing. While this commentary does not prescribe policy to meet carbon neutrality or Paris Agreement goals specifically, it does examine an existing and growing market trade behavior that has the potential to assist countries dependent on natural gas in meeting their climate targets during this transitory period for the global energy system. Section 1 outlines the current state of the carbon-neutral LNG trade, while section 2 suggests a structure for LNG GHG accounting based on existing accounting methodologies. Section 3 discusses the different forms through which emissions mitigation can be integrated into the LNG trade, including a discussion on the risks of greenwashing. Section 4 highlights the implications of the growing carbon-neutral LNG market and provides recommendations to market participants and policy makers.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, Carbon Emissions, and Decarbonization
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
34. Stronger International Safeguards as a Condition of Supply to Nuclear Energy Programs: Coming to Consensus in the Nuclear Suppliers Group
- Author:
- Matt Bowen
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- Nations that are party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons but are not allowed nuclear weapons under the treaty (“non-nuclear-weapon states”) must have international safeguards applied to civil nuclear energy facilities if they pursue such programs. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) applies these safeguards and conducts inspections on nuclear energy programs, and determined in the 1990s that it needed additional capabilities to verify states were not engaging in secret (i.e., undeclared) nuclear activities. Subsequently, the IAEA developed a set of stronger safeguards measures, known as the Model Additional Protocol (“Additional Protocol”), which was approved in 1997. Today, most nations have an Additional Protocol in force, but a few dozen do not. The nations that do not may pose a concern if they pursue nuclear energy as a means of addressing energy and environmental challenges, such as decarbonization to meet climate goals. The greater reporting requirements and inspection measures in the Additional Protocol give the international community assurance that a nation’s declarations about its civil nuclear program are both correct and complete. The enhanced inspections in turn provide greater deterrence against states pursuing illicit nuclear activities. The Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG)—which comprises 48 governments, including those representing the major reactor vendor countries—maintains guidelines governing the export of nuclear materials, equipment, and technology. The NSG has been considering modifying those guidelines for many years to support more universal adoption of the Additional Protocol. But adoption has been hard to come by, in part because of potential disruptions to existing supply relationships given that not all countries participating in the NSG have Additional Protocols in force and some client states of countries participating in the NSG also do not have these upgraded inspections in place. There may be room for consensus building among NSG states, however, since most support requiring an Additional Protocol as a condition of supply to further the nonproliferation regime. The remaining governments may agree if measures are proffered to address challenges that have blocked acceptance to date. This commentary discusses a history of related policy developments in the NSG, examines some of the group’s roadblocks to consensus, and suggests options for making progress on adding stronger international safeguards as a condition of supply to nuclear energy programs.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Energy Policy, International Cooperation, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
35. The Global Energy Crisis: Implications of Record High Natural Gas Prices
- Author:
- Anne-Sophie Corbeau
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The recent spike in energy prices across the globe has led to talks of an energy crisis with far reaching repercussions as the Northern Hemisphere braces for winter. While a significant focus has been on natural gas as gas spot prices in Asia and Europe hit levels unthinkable before ($56/million British thermal unit [mmBtu], or over $320/barrel [bbl] in oil-equivalent terms), the crisis has extended well beyond gas: oil prices are rising, China and Europe are facing record coal prices, and carbon prices in Europe have reached historic levels. As gas-fired plants (or coal in some regions) are at the margin, this is also leading to record power prices in different parts of the world. These circumstances lead to immediate concerns, but also flag important potential lessons for the future. In the short term, immediate concerns include a potential gas supply and power crunch over the coming winter, the impact of record-high gas and electricity prices on end-users’ energy bills, and power shortages. For natural gas, however, the crisis may extend beyond the weather. The role of natural gas in a world looking to slash carbon emissions has been an ongoing topic of discussion, and the potential for a sustained crisis that batters consumers may have critical repercussions for the fuel longer term. Already, at least two schools of thought are emerging from the current situation that reflect the ongoing debate about natural gas: one that views this episode as further proof that the world needs to rapidly get rid of fossil fuels, including natural gas, and one that views it as proof that more gas is needed in the immediate future to satisfy growing global energy demand. Questions of security of supply and affordability are also part of the discussion, especially in a future world with a higher share of renewables but where fossil fuels are still necessary to provide flexibility and are likely to continue to set power prices at the margin until new flexibility tools such as batteries or demand-side management are developed at scale. In addition, there are concerns about another widespread gilets jaunes[1] protest movement triggered by price spikes as governments push their agenda for decarbonization. For the gas industry, it could prove to be a moment of truth. The IEA stated earlier this year that “no new oil and natural gas fields are needed in the net-zero pathway.”[2] Indeed, producers are facing increased scrutiny about future investments, including in upstream activities and liquefied natural gas (LNG), but at the same time are asked to make gas readily available when needed.[3] Meanwhile, developing countries that had been looking favorably at natural gas as a way to complement renewables and decommission coal could be deterred by these high and volatile gas prices from supporting LNG imports. The recent increase in gas prices could impact these decisions in different ways, especially if they remain high for the next few years. This commentary provides a brief overview of the current gas market and examines the potential near- and longer-term impacts for natural gas.
- Topic:
- Economics, Energy Policy, Natural Resources, Gas, and Energy Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
36. The Impact of ESG on National Oil Companies
- Author:
- Luisa Palacios
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Center on Global Energy Policy (CGEP), Columbia University
- Abstract:
- The rise of ESG investing—investment focused on environmental stewardship, social responsibility, and corporate governance—in the 21st century has created significant pressures on oil companies. Some shareholders of international oil companies (IOCs) have pressed them to pay closer attention to ESG goals and diversify their business models away from hydrocarbons and into other sources of energy amid efforts to address greenhouse gas emissions.[1] National oil companies (NOCs)—which currently control about 50 percent of the world’s oil production—have different corporate mandates than their IOC peers that might imply a more complicated relationship with ESG goals. NOCs are mainly owned by governments in the developing world, and thus face vastly different demands than IOCs answering to private sector shareholders.[2] But different does not mean NOCs do not or will not feel pressure to address ESG issues. Given NOCs’ significant share of global oil production—and the fact that this share may increase as IOCs diversify—the pressures they face and changes they make could have a significant impact on the future of the oil and gas industry as well as countries’ abilities to meet climate goals. During the November 2021 COP 26 meetings in Glasgow, Saudi Arabia and India became the latest countries with strong NOCs to pledge to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions in the next decades.[3] This commentary examines how the ESG agenda is impacting NOCs through the ecosystem of organizations and principles that have emerged from the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals and the Paris Agreement as well as from investors and regulators in global financial markets. The piece then describes the three components of the ESG framework in relation to NOCs and the challenges of accurately measuring adherence to them due to insufficient standardization of metrics and the variety of reporting frameworks. Also, because environmental, social, and governance competence are not strictly related to one another, companies may be strong in some areas and weak in others, making it difficult to evaluate their ESG performance as a whole.[4] Finally, while ESG pressures are coming alongside discussions about the energy transition and climate change, ESG assessments do not evaluate companies’ energy transition plans, even if some aspects of ESG scores might provide insights about them. The commentary pays special attention to the importance of corporate governance for national oil companies in achieving overall ESG goals, given the key differences between their ownership structure and that of private sector companies working in the oil industry.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Energy Policy, Oil, Natural Resources, and Green Technology
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
37. Reducing Military Risks through OSCE Instruments
- Author:
- Naomi Egel
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- CBMs for AWS would make a significant contribution to reducing the military risks posed by AWS and - equally important - are a realistic goal. Although agreement within the OSCE cannot be assured, its strong history of developing CBMs and its ability to make progress towards reducing military risk even in a climate of geopolitical tensions makes the OSCE uniquely well positioned to develop AWS CBMs. The growing proliferation of AWS and their increasing importance in military operations means that risk reduction is an urgent priority. Given the numerous challenges to arms control and cooperative security measures in other international organisations, OSCE CBMs offer one of the best opportunities for making progress in reducing the military risks of AWS. Moreover, they would provide a foundation for further governance of AWS by other international organisations. The CBMs proposed here would provide greater transparency regarding states’ capabilities and intentions regarding AWS, and in doing so, would reduce the risks of miscommunication, miscalculation and inadvertent conflict escalation that these systems pose.
- Topic:
- Security, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
38. WHY HEALTHY SKEPTICISM ABOUT THIS YEAR’S NOBEL PEACE PRIZE IS WARRANTED
- Author:
- Ida Rudolfsen
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Today the World Food Program (WFP) receives this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. The award has been called happily uncontroversial, following last year’s prize, which was awarded to Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister of Ethiopia, for making peace with Eritrea. The current conflict in the Tigray region calls into question the durability of that peace. The award is also timely, as estimates show that, accelerated by the COVID-19 pandemic, more than a quarter of a billion people will face acute hunger by the end of the year, increasing from 135 million to 265 million.
- Topic:
- Food, Hunger, and World Food Program (WFP)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
39. GENDER AND POLITICAL VIOLENCE
- Author:
- Rose McDermott
- Publication Date:
- 12-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Recent commentary has noted that countries run by women have done a markedly better job at containing the COVID-19 pandemic than countries run by men. Previous commentary has also suggested that the public tends to think that female leaders do a better job on issues related to health and education. But the COVID-19 pandemic is not simply a health issue; it also presents major challenges in international relations, which begs the question: how does gender influence international relations? Gender affects international relations in many ways. It is at the root of many types and forms of conflict, from domestic violence to war. War is usually thought of as being something that is supported primarily by men even if the negative effects disproportionately fall on women. However, a great deal of conflict begins in and around battles over status between men, and between men and women. This is true in both domestic and international realms. Conflict, like much else, begins in the home. Children watch their parents disagree and observe how fights take place. Do parents have reasoned arguments that end in negotiated compromises? Or does their father beat their mother into submission? Children learn from watching, and take lessons about how to resolve conflict—and the role of domination and coercion in relationships—into the larger world, and use these models as the basis for how they feel they, and their nations, should behave.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Gender Issues, Women, Leadership, Violence, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
40. TWENTY YEARS AFTER UNSCR 1325: ANY PROGRESS ENDING WARTIME SEXUAL VIOLENCE?
- Author:
- Robert Nagel, Dara Kay Cohen, and Ragnhild Nordås
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Tomorrow is the 20th anniversary of the groundbreaking UN Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women Peace and Security (WPS). Where are we on the road to ending conflict-related sexual violence? There is good news and bad news. When the UN Security Council passed resolution 1325 on Women Peace and Security it was a momentous event. Women’s rights and violence against women had never before been on the agenda of the Security Council. Resolution 1325 emphasized the need for increased participation of women in national, regional, and international institutions, and for women’s inclusion in peace negotiations. Perhaps even more importantly, it acknowledged the agency of women in matters of war and peace, in contrast to the predominant idea of women as merely passive victims. A central component of 1325 was to explicitly call on all parties to armed conflict to take special measures to protect women and girls from violence, particularly sexual and gender-based violence.
- Topic:
- Gender Issues, United Nations, Women, Gender Based Violence, Sexual Violence, and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
41. COVID-19, FOOD ACCESS, AND SOCIAL UPHEAVAL
- Author:
- Ida Rudolfsen
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- According to the World Food Program’s (WFP) latest report, the COVID-19 pandemic will lead to an 82 percent increase in global food insecurity, affecting around 270 million people by the end of the year. On June 29, the organization announced it is undertaking its largest humanitarian effort to assist an increasing number of food-insecure low- and middle-income countries. In a statement about the plan, WFP Executive Director David Beasley said that “until the day we have a medical vaccine, food is the best vaccine against chaos. Without it, we could see increased social unrest and protests, a rise in migration, deepening conflict, and widespread under-nutrition among populations that were previously immune from hunger.”
- Topic:
- Food, Food Security, Hunger, Pandemic, COVID-19, and World Food Program (WFP)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
42. THE STABILITY-INSTABILITY PANDEMIC
- Author:
- Evan Perkoski
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Will the COVID-19 pandemic increase or decrease conflict around the globe? Across myriad blog posts and op-eds, a consensus appears to be emerging: in the short term, the global community may experience a pax epidemia, as Barry Posen refers to it, where “the odds of a war between major powers will go down, not up.” But the opposite may be true for intrastate conflict—e.g. civil wars and insurgencies—where conditions seem ripe for more turbulent subnational politics.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, War, Conflict, COVID-19, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
43. 5 QUESTIONS ON DEVELOPMENT AND CONFLICT
- Author:
- David A. Lake and Eli Berman
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Violence is a feature of life in many developing countries. As governments, private philanthropic organizations, and communities work to reduce inequity, alleviate poverty, and improve the well-being of people living in low- and middle-income countries, what role does conflict play in stymying development? And can development reduce conflict? David Lake, distinguished professor of political science at UC San Diego, poses five questions about development and conflict to Eli Berman, research director at the UC Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation and professor of economics at UC San Diego.
- Topic:
- Development, Poverty, Governance, Afghanistan, Conflict, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
44. THE DIPLOMATIC BURDEN OF COVID-19
- Author:
- Benjamin E. Bagozzi and Ore Koren
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- At a time when global cooperation is needed more than ever, new research suggests that pandemics may weaken diplomatic connections between countries and lower the probability that nations will establish new diplomatic ties. Diplomacy is one of the most enduring forms of international political interaction. Administered through embassies, consulates, and their political and bureaucratic support staffs, on-the-ground diplomatic relations are a key tool for international political negotiation, cooperation, trade promotion, dispute settlement, foreign intelligence management, and cultural exchange.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Communications, Peacekeeping, Negotiation, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
45. A reflection on the Responsibility to Protect in 2020
- Author:
- Karen Smith
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- Fifteen years since the adoption of the principle of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P), I would like to reflect on what it is, at its core. R2P is essentially about preventing and protecting people from the most heinous atrocity crimes – genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity. This essence is sometimes undermined by debates in which criticisms about implementation deficits are used to discredit the entire principle. The disconnect between the UN World Summit in 2005, when UN member states unanimously committed to protect populations from atrocity crimes, and the disparity in its implementation is highly problematic, as it leaves open the door for atrocity crimes to continue to be committed, while effective national, regional and international action is displaced by what are essentially political arguments about lack of conceptual consensus. The grim reality of today’s ongoing crises is a stark reminder of the need to redouble efforts to effectively implement the responsibility to protect.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Law, United Nations, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
46. Atrocity Crimes and Preventive Diplomacy: Reflections on R2P’s 15th Anniversary
- Author:
- Ivan Šimonović
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- Fifteen years ago the Responsibility to Protect populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing and crimes against humanity was unanimously adopted at the United Nations World Summit, the largest gathering of Heads of State and Government in history. To mark the 15th anniversary the Global Centre is publishing a series of reflections by key actors in the development of R2P. In this piece, Ambassador Ivan Šimonović shares lessons he learned regarding the prevention of atrocity crimes while serving as the UN Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights and as UN Special Adviser on R2P. While reflecting on various country situations, Ambassador Šimonović explains what can be achieved through “atrocity crimes prevention diplomacy.”
- Topic:
- International Law, United Nations, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
47. How a UN Board of Inquiry Failed to Address the Real Problem in Syria
- Author:
- Jahaan Pittalwala
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- Since April 2019 Syrian government and Russian forces have carried out a brutal offensive in northwest Syria, resulting in the deaths of over 1,500 civilians. As the bombings intensified in mid 2019, international outrage grew as airstrikes regularly hit health facilities, schools, displacement centers and other civilian objects, including those on a “deconfliction” list established by the UN to help facilitate their protection. Any joint action by the UN Security Council (UNSC) in response to these attacks was actively blocked by China and Russia, the latter of which was directly involved in the military offensive. Amidst frustration that perpetrators were being systematically shielded from accountability, and faced with few other diplomatic options, ten members of the UNSC issued a démarche to the UN Secretary-General requesting an investigation into attacks on civilian objects.
- Topic:
- International Law, United Nations, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), UN Security Council, and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Middle East, Syria, and Global Focus
48. R2P: The Dream and the Reality
- Author:
- Gareth Evans
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- In a world as full of cynicism, double standards, crude assertions of national interest and realpolitik as ours has so long been, not least in these last few years, it is very easy to believe that ideas do not matter very much. Achieving fundamental change in the way states and their leaders think and behave is as hard as international relations gets. But that is exactly the dream that those of us involved in the creation of the Responsibility to Protect (R2P) concept set out to make a reality two decades ago.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Law, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Speech
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
49. The Responsibility to Protect at 15: A Promise Unfulfilled
- Author:
- Alex Bellamy
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- The Responsibility to Protect was adopted unanimously and without equivocation by the UN General Assembly in 2005. States accepted that each of them had a responsibility to protect their populations from genocide, war crimes, ethnic cleansing, and crimes against humanity – hitherto referred to as ‘atrocity crimes.’ They acknowledged their responsibility to assist one another to fulfil this primary responsibility. They declared they had a collective responsibility to protect populations in other countries using diplomatic, humanitarian and other peaceful means, and they promised to work through the UN Security Council to protect populations when national authorities were failing and peaceful means inadequate.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, International Law, United Nations, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and Atrocities
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
50. Responsibility to Protect and the World in 2020
- Author:
- Simon Adams
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect
- Abstract:
- This year the world will celebrate the 75th anniversary of the adoption of the Charter of the United Nations. But celebrations recognizing this historical landmark will occur at a time when the entire post-1945 structure of human rights, humanitarianism and multilateral diplomacy are under threat. Not since the UN was first formed have so many people been displaced by persecution, conflict and war. Not since the peak of the Cold War has the UN Security Council appeared so bitterly divided and incapable of decisive action. And as a new decade begins, there are renewed threats to international peace and security, and fresh assaults on human dignity.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Human Rights, Social Movement, Refugees, Syrian War, Responsibility to Protect (R2P), and UN Security Council
- Political Geography:
- China, Yemen, United Nations, Syria, Chile, Myanmar, Global Focus, and Xinjiang
51. Special Commentary: Recruiting in a Post-COVID-19 World
- Author:
- Matt Lawrence
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic is going to change military recruiting. Recently, the Army and its sister forces have been forced to recruit virtually and have slowed processing through basic training. The Army has been vague about its recruiting goals, instead focusing on end strength, so it will not have to deal with the fanfare of missing its mission as it did in 2018. But the virus and its effects will actually help recruiting in the future. There was a storm gathering for recruiters, as the number of target youth would decrease in the years 2026-2031—a result of a decreased birth rate through the 2008 financial crisis and its fallout. Competition was going to be fierce with businesses and higher education. The virus changed everything.
- Topic:
- Education, Military Affairs, Army, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
52. Special Commentary: Outbreak: COVID-19, Crime, and Conflict
- Author:
- Paul R. Kan
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic is the byproduct of illicit global trafficking. Although COVID-19 was likely transmitted to humans via pangolins sold in the wet markets of Wuhan, China, these markets acted as mere way stations for the virus. The natural habitats of the pangolins are the forests, grasslands, and savannahs of Africa. But, through a network of impoverished local communities, poachers, transnational organized crime, gangs and corrupt officials, approximately 2.7 million of this endangered species are captured and smuggled to Asia every year. The pangolin has earned the sad distinction of being “the most trafficked animal on earth.” The illicit global network of wildlife trafficking was a major facilitator of the pandemic, but the effects of the virus’ spread are, in turn, facilitating more criminal activities while creating the potential for greater internal instability in many states. The contagion-crime nexus has been overshadowed by the urgent need to combat the spread of the virus. Nonetheless, COVID-19 is acting as an amplifier for crime and conflict that will have repercussions in the international security environment in the near and long term.
- Topic:
- Crime, Trafficking, Conflict, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China and Global Focus
53. Global Health Security – COVID-19: Health Pandemic to Food Crisis?
- Author:
- Luis Montesclaros
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- While engaging in hoarding behaviour at the national level may seem like a strategic move in response to household hoarding amid disruptions in trade, doing so can potentially trigger a repeat of the 2007-08 food crisis.
- Topic:
- Security, Health, Food, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
54. Military Response to COVID-19: Advantages and Constraints
- Author:
- Angelo Paolo L. Trias
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Governments around the world are deploying their military forces to respond to COVID-19. Militaries can be helpful in responding to emergencies and disasters because of their organised and unique capabilities. But how can the military be useful in the fight against the coronavirus?
- Topic:
- Health, United Nations, Military Affairs, COVID-19, and Disaster Management
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
55. Global Health Security – COVID-19 and School Closures: Why Education Sector Needs Protecting
- Author:
- Tamara Nair
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Around 90 percent of the world’s students are currently out of school as a result of the global pandemic. How prepared are we to face the fallout of having schools closed for this long?
- Topic:
- Education, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Labor Rights
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
56. Impact of COVID-19: Can Irregular Migrants Cope?
- Author:
- S. Nanthini
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Irregular migrants already struggling with poverty, displacement and discrimination, will be one of the hardest hit communities by the COVID-19 pandemic. Facing stigmatisation and a lack of resources, they are often overlooked in policy conversations despite their especially high vulnerability to the virus.
- Topic:
- Health, Labor Issues, COVID-19, and Migrant Workers
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
57. COVID-19 Crisis: Timely Reminder for Climate Change
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 outbreak disrupted our daily lives and impacted national economies. Amidst the virus turmoil, our natural surroundings have benefited from the slowdown. The global community needs to make a concerted effort to rethink our approach to economic growth to avert a climate crisis.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Economy, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
58. Pandemic Response: The Women, Peace and Security Agenda
- Author:
- Tamara Nair
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- In this time of compounding global crisis, the world needs to come together to not only fight the pandemic but to also preserve our commitments to certain shared beliefs. One of these is the eradication of gender inequality even in the midst of this humanitarian crisis.
- Topic:
- Security, Gender Issues, Women, Inequality, Peace, and Pandemic
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
59. Pandemic Fatigue: Re-Examining Re-Opening’s Logic
- Author:
- Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Mely Caballero-Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Many economies have already started to re-open in spite of growing COVID-19 active cases, but it may be for the wrong reasons, and some may be premature. Analysing the healthcare and fiscal capacity of countries provides insights on framing the logic of re-opening.
- Topic:
- Health, Economy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
60. ASEAN Response: Pushing Back Vaccine Nationalism
- Author:
- Mely Caballero-Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- As ASEAN economic ministers meet virtually this week to deal with, among other things, the severe impacts of COVID-19, their crucial task should be to strengthen multilateral cooperation. ASEAN should rally its dialogue partners and the private sector to make vaccines available to all. Can ASEAN centrality help push back the worrying trend of vaccine nationalism?
- Topic:
- Vaccine, ASEAN, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Global Focus
61. Urgently Needed: Ecological View in Decision-making
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Increasing plastic use during the time of pandemic confirms the underlying limitation in the common human security approach to solving environmental woes. A shift to a more ecological perspective is needed if the world is to meaningfully address environmental worries and care for the planet.
- Topic:
- Environment, Pandemic, Human Security, and Ecology
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
62. Decarbonisation on a Finite Planet
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Decarbonisation is not happening in a vacuum but on a planet already replete with ecological challenges. The material-intensive requirement of low-carbon technologies means more mining, and the currently inadequate recycling capacity means more waste. Existing pressures point to an urgent need to reduce consumption to avert climate and ecological crises.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Science and Technology, Recycling, and Biodiversity
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
63. Beyond COVID-19: Global Priorities Against Future Contagion
- Author:
- Jose Montesclaros
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Given the credible threat of disease re-emergence and evolution, governments today should allocate resources to preventing future novel diseases, even as they face ‘wartime conditions’ in battling COVID-19.
- Topic:
- Government, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China and Global Focus
64. Women in Global Governance: Never Ending Fight for Equality?
- Author:
- Tamara Nair
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Despite the numerous accomplishments of women in the global arena there still exists a void in global governance; this demands to be filled by greater ‘gender analysis’ and ‘gender mainstreaming’. Are these calls justified or are they merely the pursuits of particular interests?
- Topic:
- Governance, Women, Peace, and Equality
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
65. The Burden of COVID-19: Urgent Need for Social Safety Nets
- Author:
- Jose M. L. Montesclaros and Mely Caballero-Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The lockdown policies to fight COVID-19 have caused massive economic disruptions, seriously affecting poorer income groups that live on a hand-to-mouth existence. Policies to keep countries safe from pandemics must come with clear and timely social safety net programmes to protect these vulnerable groups.
- Topic:
- Income Inequality, Social Services, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
66. COVID-19 & Humanitarian Response: Leave No-One Behind
- Author:
- Alistair D.B. Cook
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- As more countries become affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, it is important to keep in mind vulnerable groups and those already affected by other humanitarian emergencies such as conflicts, disasters and climate change placing them in acutely precarious situations
- Topic:
- Humanitarian Aid, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Disaster Management
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
67. Nuclear Technology & Disease Prevention: What ASEAN Can Do
- Author:
- Julius Caesar Trajano
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Many countries are still struggling to expand their testing capability to diagnose more potential COVID-19 patients amidst shortage of detection kits. A nuclear-derived detection technique recently developed by the IAEA may be a promising method if more widely used by governments around the world. This highlights the peaceful application of nuclear science in public health.
- Topic:
- Pandemic, COVID-19, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
68. COVID-19: Private Sector’s Role in Times of Crisis
- Author:
- Christopher Chen
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- While people usually rely on the state in times of crisis, the scale and significance of the COVID-19 pandemic necessitates a more inclusive global response. Can the private sector step in to fill existing gaps in the current response?
- Topic:
- Crisis Management, Private Sector, COVID-19, and Health Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
69. Migrant Domestic Workers: Their COVID-19 Burdens
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Migrant workers, especially those doing domestic work, cannot be ignored in the fight against COVID-19. The measures taken to contain the virus spread have left them even more vulnerable. But this may be an opportunity for a fresh look at providing for their protection.
- Topic:
- Pandemic, COVID-19, and Migrant Workers
- Political Geography:
- Philippines, Hong Kong, and Global Focus
70. COVID-19 and Global Health Diplomacy: Can Asia Rise to the Challenge?
- Author:
- Mely Caballero-Anthony
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Averting the catastrophic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic requires no less than a coordinated and effective global response with the participation of all actors at multiple levels of governance. Asia must seize the opportunity to define its role in this endeavour.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Health, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
71. Is Coronavirus Good for Our Sick Planet?
- Author:
- Luca Franza
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Dolphins are being spotted in harbours, canals in Venice have never looked so clean and the temporary ban of corridas has spared the lives of a hundred Spanish bulls. Looking at the bright side of things is an admirable quality, but we should not get too carried away with the idea that COVID-19 is good for the planet. Besides the anecdotal phenomena quoted above, the collapse of mobility and economic activity induced by COVID-19 are generating meaningful short-term consequences for the environment. These include a sharp reduction in Hubei’s and Northern Italy’s air pollution levels and a likely reduction in global CO2 emissions in 2020. Rejoicing over such news rests on a short-sighted view. The interlinkages between COVID-19, energy and climate issues are so complex that we are actually looking at a mixed bag of consequences.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Pollution, and Coronavirus
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, and Global Focus
72. This Time is Different. The "COVID-Shock" and Future of the Global Oil Market
- Author:
- Giuliano Garavini
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Oil markets are facing a perfect storm. The scissors of supply and demand are moving against one another, generating increasing pain on the oil industry and the political and financial stability of oil-producing countries. Global oil demand is dropping due to the recession induced by the COVID-19 shut down of economic activity and transport in the most industrialized countries. Goldman Sachs predicts that global demand could drop from 100 million barrels per day (mdb) in 2019 to nearly 80 mdb in 2020.1 If confirmed, this would be single biggest demand shock since petroleum started its race to become the most important energy source in the world.
- Topic:
- International Trade and Finance, Oil, Global Markets, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Global Focus
73. International and Regional Laws and Instruments Related to Gender Equality and the Security and Justice Sector
- Author:
- Nenad Galic and Megan Bastick
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
- Abstract:
- This Annex is part of the DCAF, OSCE/ODIHR, UN Women Gender and Security Toolkit. It compiles regional and international laws and policies related to gender and the security and justice sectors and is meant to accompany Tools and Policy Briefs found in the Toolkit.
- Topic:
- Security, Gender Issues, International Cooperation, Regional Cooperation, Law, Justice, and Equality
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
74. Strengthening Prevention with Better Anticipation: COVID-19 and Beyond
- Author:
- Emily J. Munro
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Prevention strategies warrant more attention and can be a framework to apply to situations with different levels of urgency. The cases of the Arctic, the Sahel and the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic demonstrate the value of prevention strategies in diverse ways. Anticipation is closely linked to prevention, and we should do more to understand how the future may unfold, and then act on the findings to help us to prevent crises and conflict. The interaction of issues often lies at the centre of the policy challenges we face today. It is necessary to unpack these interactions in order to strengthen our responses. Surprises cannot be entirely avoided, but we should place more emphasis on considering the implications of crises and ensure better integration of our approaches across the short, medium and long term.
- Topic:
- Crisis Management, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Sahel, Arctic, and Global Focus
75. Renewed Transatlantic Responses towards China: Identifying Common Ground
- Author:
- Katrin Bastian and Graeme P. Herd
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
- Abstract:
- The western global order originated in the 19th and 20th centuries. It is characterized by formal international institutions and a regime of treaties, rules, norms, networks, expectations, and moral obligations. As Sigmar Gabriel and John B. Emerson note, “Our liberty is protected by democracy, the rule of law, the separation of powers, and freedom of expression and assembly. These shared principles have shaped the outlook on both sides of the Atlantic for decades.”1 These shared democratic, free, and open society principles are challenged by undemocratic non-western, economically and/or militarily successful powers, not least the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Russian Federation. The PRC has a population of 1.4 billion (comprising 18 percent of the global share), a 5,000-year-old history and culture, and boasts the world’s second largest economy. The PRC is ideologically assertive and displays a visible ambition to play a role on the international stage. Sociological theory suggests that the numeric dimension of a group determines social reality. Indeed, as Lenin noted: “quantity has a quality all of its own.” In this light, the PRC is simply “too big and too many” not to shape international politics. Ironically, the political West is involuntarily assisting in this reconfiguration of international power by voluntarily withdrawing from multilateral institutions and geopolitically-critical regions (the U.S., at least in the Trump administration) or by being overwhelmed with administrative tasks (the European Union, as a result of the growing number of member states, deeper integration, and COVID-19).
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Globalization, Multilateralism, Institutions, and Social Order
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
76. Global Trade Cooperation after COVID-19: What is the WTO's Future?
- Author:
- Peter Draper
- Publication Date:
- 02-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and Peace
- Abstract:
- International trade cooperation has been under growing strains since at least the turn of the twenty-first century. Forces promoting global trade integration were in the ascendancy for most of the first decade. They were anchored on com- plex production specialisation mediated through cross-border value chains, underpinned by con- sumer demand for a variety of cost-effective prod- ucts, and cemented through regional and bilateral trade agreements. However, since 2008, succes- sive shocks unleashed cumulative disintegrative forces that counter-balanced and now threaten to overwhelm the forces of integration. These com- prise rising nationalism, associated desires for sovereignty, growing concerns over uneven distri- bution of the benefits of economic globalisation, shifting international power balances and associ- ated security concerns. These disintegrative forces threaten to unravel the World Trade Organization (WTO). COVID-19 mostly accelerates this trajec- tory, rendering WTO reform and restoration to its central role at the apex of the global trading sys- tem increasingly challenging. But all is not lost, as the forces of global trade integration have not dissipated and every crisis also presents reform opportunities.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, World Trade Organization, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
77. Tech Power to the People! Democratising Cutting-edge Technologies to Serve Society
- Author:
- Renata Avila Pinto
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Institute for Development and Peace
- Abstract:
- Governments all over the world are adopting cutting-edge technologies to experiment with quicker, cheaper and more efficient delivery of services traditionally provided by human beings. From citizen security to allocation of social ben- efits, technologies are being deployed at a rapid pace, the aim being to serve people better, reduce costs and enhance accountability. The results are mixed. In some cases, the technologies exclude entire groups of the population, thereby exacer- bating race, gender or economic inequalities. In other cases, technology is used to surveil specific groups or communities, eroding their right to pri- vacy. And there are no clear remedies to mitigate the harm done by machines or to increase the accountability of those deploying the systems. However, when designing tech interventions, universal human rights, democratic rules and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) should shape the initiatives of the public sector. An important prerequisite is a higher degree of autonomy from big tech companies. Further- more, participatory design and testing in collabo- ration with the communities the technologies are intended to serve are needed, not only to avoid harm but to increase effectiveness and quality.
- Topic:
- Development, Science and Technology, Governance, Inequality, and Sustainability
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
78. Toynbee Coronavirus Series: Dominic Sachsenmaier on China, geopolitics, and global history post-COVID-19
- Author:
- Dominic Sachsenmaier
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- Living through historically unprecedented times has strengthened the Toynbee Prize Foundation's commitment to thinking globally about history and to representing that perspective in the public sphere. In this multimedia series on the covid-19 pandemic, we will be bringing global history to bear in thinking through the raging coronavirus and the range of social, intellectual, economic, political, and scientific crises triggered and aggravated by it. Dominic Sachsenmaier, the President of the Toynbee Prize Foundation, is Chair Professor of Modern China with a Special Emphasis on Global Historical Perspectives in the Department of East Asian Studies at the University of Göttingen. His expertise centers on global and transnational Chinese history, with a focus on Chinese concepts of society and multiple modernities, among other topics. He is co-editor of the Columbia University Press book series “Columbia Studies in International and Global History“ and an elected member of the European Academy of Sciences and Arts.
- Topic:
- Health, International Affairs, Geopolitics, Global Focus, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Global Focus
79. Toynbee Coronavirus Series: Erez Manela on the WHO, smallpox eradication, and the need for renewed internationalism
- Author:
- Erez Manela
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- Living through historically unprecedented times has strengthened the Toynbee Prize Foundation's commitment to thinking globally about history and to representing that perspective in the public sphere. In this multimedia series on the covid-19 pandemic, we will be bringing global history to bear in thinking through the raging coronavirus and the range of social, intellectual, economic, political, and scientific crises triggered and aggravated by it. Erez Manela researches international society and the modern international order. Recently he has written about smallpox and the globalization of development, illuminating the power structures and international infrastructure that underwrote the World Health Organization’s (WHO) smallpox eradication program from 1965 to 1980. Professor of History at Harvard University, Prof. Manela teaches the history of the United States in the world and modern international history, and is the Director of Graduate Programs at the Weatherhead Center for International Affairs at Harvard and co-chair of the Harvard International and Global History seminar. He co-edits the Cambridge University book series ‘Global and International History.’
- Topic:
- Health, World Health Organization, Geopolitics, Public Health, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
80. Toynbee Coronavirus Series: Dipesh Chakrabarty on zoonotic pathogens, human life, and pandemic in the age of the Anthropocene
- Author:
- Dipesh Chakrabarty
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- Living through historically unprecedented times has strengthened the Toynbee Prize Foundation's commitment to thinking globally about history and to representing that perspective in the public sphere. In this multimedia series on the covid-19 pandemic, we will be bringing global history to bear in thinking through the raging coronavirus and the range of social, intellectual, economic, political, and scientific crises triggered and aggravated by it. Toynbee Prize Awardee Dipesh Chakrabarty is the Lawrence A. Kimpton Distinguished Service Professor of History, South Asian Languages and Civilizations, and the College at University of Chicago. He is a founding member of the editorial collective of Subaltern Studies, a consulting editor of Critical Inquiry, a founding editor of Postcolonial Studies, and has served on the editorial boards of the American Historical Review and Public Culture, among others. His distinctions, publications, and awards are too numerous to mention; the landmark work for which he is perhaps best known, Provincializing Europe: Postcolonial Thought and Historical Difference (Princeton, 2000; second edition, 2008), has been translated into Italian, French, Polish, Spanish Turkish, and Korean and is being brought out in Chinese. Included among his vast range of research interests are the implications of climate change science for historical and political thought and, most relevant for our discussion today, the Anthropocene.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Coronavirus, Pandemic, COVID-19, Ecology, and Anthropocene
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
81. Toynbee Coronavirus Series—Global History Forum: Jeremy Adelman, Or Rosenboim, Jamie Martin, Cindy Ewing, and Akita Shigeru
- Author:
- Jeremy Adelman, Or Rosenboim, Jamie Martin, Cindy Ewing, and Akita Shigeru
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- Living through historically unprecedented times has strengthened the Toynbee Prize Foundation's commitment to thinking globally about history and to representing that perspective in the public sphere. In this multimedia series on the COVID-19 pandemic, we will be bringing global history to bear in thinking through the raging coronavirus and the range of social, intellectual, economic, political, and scientific crises triggered and aggravated by it.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
82. Toynbee Coronavirus Series—Global Historians Analyze the Pandemic: Glenda Sluga, Jie-Hyun Lim, Lauren Benton, and Hsiung Ping-chen
- Author:
- Glenda Sluga, Jie-Hyun Lim, Lauren Benton, and Hsiung Ping-chen
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- Living through historically unprecedented times has strengthened the Toynbee Prize Foundation's commitment to thinking globally about history and to representing that perspective in the public sphere. In this multimedia series on the COVID-19 pandemic, we will be bringing global history to bear in thinking through the raging coronavirus and the range of social, intellectual, economic, political, and scientific crises triggered and aggravated by it.
- Topic:
- History, Geopolitics, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
83. Thinking Through Water: An Interview with Sunil S. Amrith
- Author:
- Sunil S. Amrith
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- “The history of water,” writes Sunil S. Amrith, “shows that nature has never truly been conquered.” Nature is a dynamic presence in Amrith’s oeuvre. As a historian of South and Southeast Asia, his research engages the spaces, movements, and processes of a uniquely Indian Oceanic region. The worlds recounted by Amrith are often ones marked by the ambitions of empires and polities, the mass migration of human labour, and indeed, the furies of nature itself. In his latest book, Unruly Waters, Amrith shows how “the schemes of empire builders, the visions of freedom fighters, the designs of engineers—and the cumulative, dispersed actions of hundreds of millions of people across generations—have transformed Asia’s waters over the past two hundred years.” It testifies to the dreams that societies have often pinned to water, as well as its unwieldy and turbulent nature. In his account of “the struggle for water” and control over the Asian monsoon, we come to understand how climate change exacerbates a problem both already in-progress and connected to histories of “reckless development and galloping inequality.” Sunil S. Amrith is presently the Mehra Family Professor of South Asian History at Harvard University. He was the 2017 recipient of the MacArthur Fellowship. From July 2020, Amrith will be the Dhawan Professor of History at Yale University. His most recent book publications include: Unruly Waters: How Rains, Rivers, Coasts, and Seas Have Shaped Asia's History (Basic Books and Penguin UK, 2018), Crossing the Bay of Bengal: The Furies of Nature and the Fortunes of Migrants (Harvard University Press, 2013), and Migration and Diaspora in Modern Asia (Cambridge University Press, 2011). In this conversation, we discuss the role of water, nature, and inequality vis-à-vis history; the fields of global and environmental history; and lastly, some of the thoughts and practices that underlay the historian’s craft.
- Topic:
- Globalization, History, Water, and Oceans and Seas
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Global Focus
84. Youth, God, and Empire: Interview With Dr. Joy Schulz
- Author:
- Joy Schulz
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Toynbee Prize Foundation
- Abstract:
- With young activists like Malala Yousafzai, Greta Thunberg, and Xiuhtezcatl Roske-Martinez coming to the fore of headlines and social movements, the present has proven itself to be an opportune moment to reassess the role of youths in historical change. In this vein, Dr. Joy Schulz's book Hawaiian By Birth: Missionary Children, Bicultural Identity, and U.S. Colonialism in the Pacific (2017) stands out as crucial reading. Emphasizing the centrality of American missionary children in the domination of the Hawaiian Islands during the second half of nineteenth century, Schulz's analysis exposes the potency of youth power through a series of chapters that trace the development of these young evangelists into colonizers and revolutionaries. In the process, she draws attention to the complexities born at the intersections of childhood and empire and underscores the capacity of children to record their own histories in ways that may complement or complicate adult ambitions. Dr. Schulz and I discuss these themes, and the challenges and opportunities that children present as the subjects of transnational histories.
- Topic:
- Religion, Political Activism, Children, Colonialism, Youth, and Empire
- Political Geography:
- Asia-Pacific and Global Focus
85. A Roundtable on Daniel Immerwahr, How to Hide an Empire: A History of the Greater United States
- Author:
- Daniel Immerwahr, Odd Arne Westad, David Milne, Emily Conroy-Krutz, Thomas Bender, and Carol Chin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- A Roundtable on Daniel Immerwahr, How to Hide an Empire: A History of the Greater United States
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Imperialism, History, Empire, and Diplomatic History
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
86. A Roundtable on Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Do Morals Matter?: Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump
- Author:
- Kelly M. McFarland, Lori Clune, Danielle Richman, Wilson D. (Bill) Miscamble, Seth Jacobs, Vanessa Walker, and Joseph S. Nye Jr.
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- A Roundtable on Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Do Morals Matter?: Presidents and Foreign Policy from FDR to Trump
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Political Theory, International Relations Theory, Political Science, American Presidency, and Morality
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
87. The United States and the World Health Organization
- Author:
- Theodore M. Brown
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- A little more than two months ago, U.S. President Donald Trump began to lash out at the World Health Organization, blaming it for what he claimed were missteps, failures, and prevarications in its handling of the coronavirus pandemic. Then, on April 14, after several days of threats, he announced that U.S. funding for the WHO would be frozen for sixty to ninety days while his administration conducted a review to “assess the World Health Organization’s role in severely mismanaging and covering up the spread of coronavirus.” Widely seen as a transparent attempt to deflect attention from his own inconsistent, incompetent, and irresponsible response to the crisis, Trump’s threatened withdrawal of funds from the WHO at a critical moment drew widespread condemnation from medical and public health leaders. Richard Horton, the editor-in-chief of Lancet, called Trump’s decision a “crime against humanity.” Dr. Georges Benjamin, the executive director of the American Public Health Association, “denounced” the Trump administration’s decision to halt U.S. contributions to the WHO, which, he said, would “cripple the world’s response to COVID-19 and would harm the health and lives of thousands of Americans.”
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, World Health Organization, Coronavirus, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
88. A Roundtable on Daniel Bessner and Fredrik Logevall, “Recentering the United States in the Historiography of American Foreign Relations”
- Author:
- Chester Pach, Cindy Ewing, Kevin Y. Kim, Daniel Bessner, and Fredrik Logevall
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- A Roundtable on Daniel Bessner and Fredrik Logevall, “Recentering the United States in the Historiography of American Foreign Relations”
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, International Relations Theory, and Diplomatic History
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
89. Roundtable on Timothy J. Lynch, In the Shadow of the Cold War: American Foreign Policy from George Bush Sr. to Donald Trump
- Author:
- Jeffrey A. Engel, R. Joseph Parrott, Heather Marie Stur, Steven J. Brady, and Timothy Lynch
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
- Abstract:
- Roundtable on Timothy J. Lynch, In the Shadow of the Cold War: American Foreign Policy from George Bush Sr. to Donald Trump
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, American Presidency, Post Cold War, and Diplomatic History
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
90. The Novel Coronavirus Outbreak and Its Political/Economic Impact on China
- Author:
- Li Hao
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- As of March 9, 2020, instances of pneumonia attributable to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) have appeared in more than 100 countries; more than 80,000 persons have been infected in China, of whom over 3,000 have died. These infections have spread to Japan, South Korea, Italy, Iran and elsewhere, devastating global exchange and economic activity. This paper offers a brief examination of the political and economic impact of this outbreak on China.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Global Focus
91. The Impacts of the New Coronavirus Pandemic on the Global Economy: A Nontechnical Summary
- Author:
- Kensuke Yanagida
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- As of April 5, 2020, there are 177 countries/regions confirming cases of new coronavirus infections (COVID-19), making this an unprecedented pandemic. With the number of infected people increasing and medical systems under severe pressure, measures such as lockdowns and border restrictions have been tightly imposed in most countries/regions. As a result, economic activities in both production and consumption have been temporarily halted. Indeed, the pandemic is creating a situation that is simultaneously freezing the global economy. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that the impact of the Corona Shock on the global economy could be "far worse" than that of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis (also known as the Lehman Shock). How much impact will the unprecedented pandemic have on the global economy? In this paper, the author will quantitatively analyze the impact of the Corona Shock using an applied general equilibrium model (Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)). The estimation results show that the longer the COVID-19 outbreak continues and the greater the spread of infections, the greater the negative impact on the global economy. The impact is forecast to be at or even above the level of the Lehman Shock.
- Topic:
- Economy, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
92. Coronavirus Crisis Accelerating Reconsideration of Supply Chains
- Author:
- Yoshiaki Takayama
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, international interdependence is changing. The current international political situation, characterized by harsh power politics, and the current state of the international economy, in which states with different values are economically connected, are leading to reconsideration of international supply chains. Understanding international supply chains is extremely important in looking at the prospects for the global political economy. The purpose of this comment is to explore the trends and implications of reconsidering supply chains.
- Topic:
- Politics, Global Political Economy, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
93. Entry into Force of the TPNW: Challenges for Revitalizing Nuclear Disarmament
- Author:
- Hirofumi Tosaki
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- On October 24, 2020, Hondulas deposited its instrument of ratification of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), bringing the number of countries that have ratified the treaty to over 50. In accordance with Article 15, the Treaty will thus enter into force 90 days later, that is, on January 22, 2021. The TPNW, which was adopted at the UN General Asembly in July 2017 with the approval of 122 countries, is the first treaty on nuclear weapons to prohibit its States Parties to (a) develop, test, produce, manufacture, acquire, possess, or stockpile, (b) transfer, (c) receive, (d) use or threaten to use, (e) assist, encourage, or induce anyone to engage in any activity prohibited to a State Party, (f) seek or receive any assistance from anyone, to engage in any activities prohibited to a State Party, and (g) allow any stationing, installation, or deployment of nuclear weapons (Article 1). Considering the enthusiasm of the proponent countries and NGOs, including the International Campaign for the Abolition of Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), at the time of the adoption of the TPNW, it looks to have taken some time for the Treaty to come into effect. In addition, at the time of writing, the signatories were limited to 84 countries. Furthermore, Sweden and Switzerland, both of which voted in favor of its adoption, have stated their intentions not to sign the Treaty at present. Nevertheless, given the challenging situation surrounding nuclear disarmament, including the demise of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and the difficulty of extending the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), proponents of the TPNW are exploring ways of using this opportunity of its entry into force to increase the number of States Parties and reinvigorate international and domestic public opinion.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Disarmament
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
94. The ICRC’s Changing Role In International Humanitarianism
- Author:
- Peter Maurer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- Peter Maurer is the President of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC). This interview was conducted at the beginning of March, before the COVID-19 outbreak had reached pandemic levels. Since that time, the ICRC has been adapt- ing its operations to respond to the disease’s impacts in conflict-affected countries. President Maurer wrote about his concerns for vulnerable populations in an opinion column in The Guardian, published 27 March 2020.
- Topic:
- Health, Humanitarian Aid, Humanitarian Intervention, Violence, Civilians, Medicine, Red Cross, and ICRC
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
95. The Future Of Microfinance
- Author:
- Muhammad Yunus
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Brown Journal of World Affairs
- Abstract:
- Muhammad Yunus is an economist and the founder of Grameen Bank, which provides microcredit to the impoverished without requiring collateral. Yunus and Grameen were awarded the Noble Peace Prize in 2006.
- Topic:
- Development, International Trade and Finance, Capitalism, Finance, and Microcredit
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
96. How Developing Countries Can Manage the COVID-19 Economic Impact
- Author:
- Matthew Eldridge
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Urban Institute
- Abstract:
- Even as many developing countries are confronting the health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, they are already bracing for the widespread, global recession that will follow. These countries already struggle to provide many services and supports to their citizens, and although the emergency assistance packages of international financial institutions are a start, they alone won’t be enough to mitigate the economic impact of COVID-19 and enable a strong recovery. Although most developing countries escaped the 2007–08 financial crisis with limited damage, for many, this economic downturn is expected to be much worse because of the direct health effects, the sharp decline in global economic activity, the structural composition of their economies, and constrained policy options.
- Topic:
- Development, Economics, Pandemic, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
97. Resilience and Agility: Managing and Mitigating Evolving Threats in a Hyperconnected World
- Author:
- Hasssan Abul-Enein
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
- Abstract:
- Over the years a wide range of different evolving threats have been drastic in their impact and magnitude. This impact is likely to be amplified in the future, especially as global risks such as deglobalisation, fractured social contracts, digital divides and technological gaps increase.39 Also, the rollout of stimulus packages and soaring debt that is estimated to top US$10 trillion by the end of 2020 is likely to make the global economic landscape more fragile.40 The COVID-19 outbreak has perhaps resulted in the single largest socio- economic experiment in the history of humankind. As an evolving threat, what started as a health pandemic in China has snowballed, causing disruptions around the globe and impacting every single industry and individual. Countless lessons are being extrapolated from the outbreak. At the core of these lessons is the importance of resilience and agility in any response to an evolving threat. If governments, organisations, businesses, and society are to manage and mitigate threats of this kind that may occur in the future, there is a need to consolidate and further invest in the four pillars highlighted in this study: strategic management and foresight; human capital, diversity and leadership; collaboration and partnerships; and technology and innovation. Together, these pillars make for organisational resilience and agility. This in turn helps organisations to overcome ambiguity and uncertainty by embedding adaptability and flexibility across their structures. This will allow organisations and vested stakeholders to better map out ecosystem changes that threaten their interests and growth. It will also allow them to respond proactively, timeously and effectively by implementing whole- of-enterprise risk management functions and developing solid decision- making structures and frameworks. Investments in these pillars will also provide opportunities for shared value creation and avoid duplication and wastage. This will help drive growth and mitigate the impact of evolving threats by generating innovative solutions faster and more dynamically, and will accelerate the focus on solving problems rather than fighting them. It will also help to develop human capital, ensure accessibility to a variety of solutions to a wide range of problems, and increase integration, which in turn will create safety buffers and support shock containment.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Governance, Leadership, Conflict, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
98. Just the Facts: A Selected Annotated Bibliography to Support Evidence-Based Policymaking on Women, Peace and Security
- Publication Date:
- 01-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Our Secure Future
- Abstract:
- On March 8, 2000, Ambassador Anwarul K. Chowdhury remarked in his International Women’s Day statement at the United Nations Security Council, …members of the Security Council recognize that peace is inextricably linked with equality between women and men. They affirm that the equal access and full participation of women in power structures and their full involvement in all efforts for the prevention and resolution of conflicts are essential for the maintenance and promotion of peace and equality.i Later that year, the United Nations Security Council unanimously passed the landmark resolution (UNSCR 1325) on Women, Peace and Security. UNSCR 1325 is the first formal recognition of the critical role of women in effective conflict resolution and peacebuilding. The mandate requires attention to gender equality in all aspects of international peace and security decisionmaking. The vision of UNSCR 1325 is to fundamentally change often exclusionary peace and security approaches so that they are fully inclusive and sensitive to the needs and capacities of the entire population. Historically, gender inequality has remained outside the sphere of consideration for many security actors and policymakers. Unlike any other foreign policy agenda, Women, Peace and Security (WPS) originated from a global constituency of non-state actors—women. As a result, WPS promotes nonviolent, human rights–based approaches to peace and security decision-making. This approach explicitly acknowledges equality between men and women as intrinsic to achieving lasting peace.
- Topic:
- Security, Women, Peace, and WPS
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
99. Seizing the Moment? The U.S. Strategy for Women, Peace and Security
- Author:
- Ambassador Donald Steinberg
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Our Secure Future
- Abstract:
- The White House has now released its long-awaited Strategy on Women, Peace, and Security (WPS). The strategy is mandated under the bipartisan Women, Peace, and Security Act of 2017, which requires the Administration to develop a broad national strategy to support meaningful roles for women around the world in peace operations and political, civic, economic, and security systems. The White House has instructed the Departments of State, Defense, and Homeland Security and the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) to produce specific implementation plans within 120 days. The short 15-page text is not the comprehensive strategy required by Congress, but rather a statement of principles and priorities that these four agencies are to use to adopt action plans. As such, it is vital that members of Congress and civil society organizations now assist these agencies in making time-bound, measurable commitments backed by accountability provisions and ample resources, and then hold the Administration’s feet to the fire.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Women, and WPS
- Political Geography:
- United States and Global Focus
100. Gendered Vulnerability: How Women Work Harder to Stay in Office
- Author:
- Kelly Dittmar
- Publication Date:
- 03-2019
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Journal:
- Political Science Quarterly
- Institution:
- Academy of Political Science
- Abstract:
- In this book Jeffrey Lazarus and Amy Steigerwalt leverage an impressive data collection to make the case that women legislators are more active and more responsive to their constituents than men. Moreover, they offer a theoretical argument to explain why women appear to work harder to meet constituent needs and demands, suggesting that women legislators’ perceptions of their electoral vulnerability—even as incumbents—motivate them to focus their legislative efforts on proving to their constituents that they are worthy of re-election.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
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