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2. Domestic Disagreements Limit Netanyahu’s Options with Washington
- Author:
- David Makovsky
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the Hamas-Israel war enters a new phase, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is finding it increasingly difficult to balance relationships inside his government and with the White House. On the military front, Israel has taken most of northern Gaza, though an estimated 5,000-6,000 Hamas fighters remain active in various tunnel networks. Major combat operations have largely shifted to central and southern Gaza, while the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) have released most of the 360,000 reservists mobilized at the beginning of the war and withdrawn some forces for retraining. Yet the situation is murkier on the diplomatic and political fronts. Earlier today, Netanyahu and President Biden spoke with each other for the first time in almost four weeks, and the prime minister is fundamentally at odds with Benny Gantz’s centrist National Unity party. When Gantz joined the government shortly after the October 7 attacks, he helped dilute the influence of the far-right parties led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir while focusing the cabinet on the mutual goal of driving Hamas from power in Gaza. Yet their policy differences have become more salient since then, and Netanyahu seems convinced that Gantz—who is riding high in the polls—will soon leave the government to capitalize on the prime minister’s wartime unpopularity in potential early elections. This has made Netanyahu more dependent on his far-right ministers, much to the consternation of the White House.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Domestic Politics, Conflict, and Benjamin Netanyahu
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
3. Israel and Genocide: Not Only In Gaza
- Author:
- Mark Lewis Taylor
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Israel and the United States share responsibility in perpetuating Guatemala's military-sponsored Silent Holocaust.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Counterinsurgency, and State Sponsored Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Israel, Palestine, Gaza, Guatemala, and United States of America
4. Viva Palestina! NYC Student Encampments Spark National Rebellion
- Author:
- Mariana Navarrete Villegas
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Latinx students are standing with Palestine. For them, the occupation and oppression of Palestine are inseparable from the U.S.- and Israel-backed militarization of Latin America.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Occupation, Protests, Political Movements, Students, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- New York, Palestine, Gaza, Latin America, North America, and United States of America
5. US Student Pro-Palestine Demonstrations Remain Overwhelmingly Peaceful | ACLED Brief
- Author:
- Bianca Ho and Kieran Doyle
- Publication Date:
- 05-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Student protests calling for divestment from Israel on university campuses around the United States are the latest sign of public discontent with the Israel-Palestine conflict. Some notable violent clashes have recently taken place, such as on the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA) campus, where demonstrators and counter-demonstrators fought at a student encampment overnight on 30 April. However, between 7 October and 3 May, the overwhelming majority of student demonstrations — 97% — have remained peaceful. Demonstrations involving students now make up more than 40% of all US demonstration activity related to the conflict since it reignited in October 2023. Over 94% of the more than 1,360 student demonstrations held between 7 October 2023 and 3 May 2024 have shown support for Palestine.
- Topic:
- Political Movements, Students, Demonstrations, Divestment, and Universities
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America
6. Hamas’s Narrative of 7 October and the Impossibility of Ignoring It
- Author:
- Menachem Klein
- Publication Date:
- 02-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Hamas’ barbaric attack on 7 October and Israel’s ruthless retaliation against Hamas and Gaza Strip residents are unprecedented shocking events in their severity, repercussions and impact on both peoples’ collective memory. Only few of those Israelis who agreed that Hamas underwent a political change since 2017[1] – when it issued its Document of General Principles and Policies[2] – still maintain that view. Similarly, Western government officials who engaged in direct or indirect dialogue with Hamas claim that the crimes it committed on 7 October were driven by its adherence to a fundamentalist Islamic ideology inspired by ISIS.
- Topic:
- Hamas, Narrative, Collective Memory, and October 7
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
7. The Impact of the War in Gaza on Israel-Jordan Cooperation
- Author:
- Saud Al-Sharafat
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The Gaza war’s impact on Jordan has been significant and at times uncontrolled, with a primary focus on demands to halt all forms of “bilateral cooperation” with Israel. However, the implementation of the energy for water project is likely only a matter of time, although contingent on cessation of hostilities. The war in Gaza has cast a dark shadow over the promising water and energy cooperation projects between Jordan and Israel. Water and energy are among the most economically and politically sensitive sectors in contemporary Jordan due to the country’s chronic water shortage and the difficulty of securing energy sources for local use. Jordan imports more than 96 percent of its energy needs, with an annual import bill exceeding $3 billion, according to official statistics. The Gaza war has had a direct impact on Jordanian public opinion, with increasing demands that the country withdraws from all its commitments, treaties, and agreements with Israel and halt all forms of cooperation. So far, however, it appears these demands have disrupted only one project, Project Prosperity—or energy for water agreement—which is sponsored by the United Arab Emirates with U.S. approval. Although the project has been suspended, it will likely resume after the war ends, since both parties have an interest in this type of cooperation. Indeed, despite the current tensions, this type of coordination is almost inevitable given the respective situations of both countries, and as one of the most important means of interconnection and networking that can help mitigate armed crises and conflicts between them.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Water, Public Opinion, Energy, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Jordan
8. Israel and the ICJ: Comparing International Court Cases During the Gaza War
- Author:
- Alexander Loengarov
- Publication Date:
- 07-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The current cycle of legal actions involving Israel is unprecedented in scope and politicization, but governments are still better off engaging with the process and lodging their objections there than dismissing it outright. On July 19, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) will deliver an advisory opinion on the “legal consequences arising from the policies and practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem.” The opinion was requested by the UN General Assembly (UNGA) more than a year and a half ago—well before the Gaza war broke out—in the context of efforts to increase awareness of the Palestinian issue at various international forums, as well as more specific concerns about escalating “tensions and violence” with Israel. The timing of this week’s opinion might seem incongruous given how much has taken place since it was first requested in January 2023. Yet it is in keeping with a wartime trend in which more new cases are being brought before international courts, and pending cases are being rekindled and amplified. Distinguishing between these cases is instructive.
- Topic:
- Genocide, International Law, International Court of Justice (ICJ), and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
9. Gaza’s Day After Starts in Ramallah
- Author:
- Francesca Borri
- Publication Date:
- 06-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The toing and froing of proposals and counterproposals for a ceasefire in Gaza has been going on for months now. The talks between the Israeli government and Hamas, however, have never really been about numbers: how many hostages to release, which ones, in return for how many and which prisoners, and how many days of truce. The sticking point is another: Hamas calls for the end of the war, and the Israeli government for the end of Hamas. This means that, in reality, the stand-off is all about the “day after”. How can a government be established in Gaza that ensures freedom and development on one side, and security on the other one? And yet, that’s what no one has been working on. While most mediators admit by now that Hamas will not be destroyed, in the ceasefire talks the issue of the “day after” continues not to be factored in.
- Topic:
- Hamas, Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
10. The Spillover Effect: The Gaza Conflict and Potential Ramifications to the Western Balkans
- Author:
- Vuk Vuksanović
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
- Abstract:
- This report outlines potential security and geopolitical risks for the Western Balkans stemming from the war in Gaza. While none of these security challenges are inevitable, they are possible. Depending on whether the conflict in Gaza continues in its current form or whether it escalates in intensity and number of belligerents, there are at least three potential ramifications for the Western Balkans. The first concerns the potential radicalisation in the local Muslim communities involving anti-Semitism and acts of violence that could disrupt harmony between local religious communities. The second concerns the risk that if the conflict expands to engulf Iran and Hezbollah and potentially other regional actors, there is a risk that this security rivalry between Middle Eastern players like Israel and Iran will spread to the Western Balkans. Thirdly, depending on the geographical scope and duration of the conflict, there is a potentially high risk of a new refugee crisis impacting the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Radicalization, Geopolitics, Refugees, 2023 Gaza War, and Antisemitism
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Western Balkans
11. Gaza Needs Humanitarian Assistance Now as Famine Sets In
- Author:
- Alistair D. B. Cook
- Publication Date:
- 04-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Dealing with the humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza and preventing famine requires increasing airdrops as an interim solution and reinforcing diplomatic efforts to open up more aid channels.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Famine, Humanitarian Crisis, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
12. The Campus Rebellion for Palestine
- Author:
- Conor Tomás Reed, Camila Azeñas, William Armando Hurtado Barrero, Ana González, and Camilo Godoy Pichón
- Publication Date:
- 12-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The North American Congress on Latin America (NACLA)
- Abstract:
- Across the hemisphere, students demanded an end to the genocide in Gaza. How they navigated repression and resistance offers lessons for the solidarity movement.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Repression, Students, Universities, 2023 Gaza War, and Organizing
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
13. After a year of war, Hamas is militarily weakened — but far from ‘eliminated’
- Author:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Publication Date:
- 10-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- One year after the onset of the current crisis in the Middle East, following Hamas’ deadly attack on southern Israel on 7 October, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s vow of “complete victory” and the “elimination” of Hamas as a threat to Israel1 remains unfulfilled. While Israeli officials claim that Hamas no longer exists as a military force in Gaza, ACLED data show that Hamas still retains some operational capabilities and continues to engage with Israeli forces across the Gaza Strip. Meanwhile, Hamas has also escalated its military activities in the West Bank. With the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) recently having shifted focus to confronting Hezbollah in the north and no ceasefire in Gaza in sight, Hamas continues to remain a significant actor in Palestine despite its now-diminished military capabilities and the significant humanitarian toll on Palestinians in Gaza.
- Topic:
- Armed Forces, Hamas, Humanitarian Crisis, Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Armed Conflict, and 2023 Gaza War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
14. Between Swords of Iron and the Al Aqsa Deluge: The Regional Politics of the Israel-Hamas War
- Author:
- Brandon Friedman and Joshua Krasna
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI)
- Abstract:
- The Hamas-Israel war has derailed but not destroyed the trend towards regional de-escalation and integration. Hamas’ “success” has revived fears in the region of a Muslim Brotherhood resurgence and led aspiring regional powers to compete to steer the Muslim world’s attitudes and responses to the crisis . Egypt and Jordan, Israel’s peace partners, face particular domestic challenges that both constrain and incentivize engagement in the crisis. Egypt’s strategic interests have led to a discreet, but more active role, while Jordan’s domestic pressures have led it to keep the crisis at arm’s length. The United Arab Emirates and other conservative Arab states emphasize the need to prevent escalation, to limit civilian deaths, and to implement an immediate ceasefire, and at least publicly, minimize the relevance of “who started” the war.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, War, Hamas, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
15. The United States Is Rapidly Losing Arab Hearts and Minds Through Gaza War, While Competitors Benefit
- Author:
- Munqith Dagher and Karl Kaltenthaler
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Throughout the fifteen years that following the 2011 withdrawal from Iraq, each American presidential administration has experienced domestic calls to leave the Middle East. However, each time these voices grew louder, a new regional variable emerged that compelled the American administration to return to its traditional role dictated by urgent strategic security and economic interests. After the withdrawal from Iraq, a strategic vacuum led to the emergence of and fight against ISIS, with the deaths of thousands both locally and internationally, and millions from the region displaced. The U.S. military was forced to return to the region to contribute to the efforts to eliminate ISIS. When this goal was declared completed, new regional threats emerged in the form of Iran and its weapons, which threatened not only America’s allies but also the free flow of global oil supplies. While the Biden administration thought this problem could be resolved through a package of incentives and agreements with Iran, the war in Gaza has emerged to confirm once again the error of U.S. assessments that contend that this region is no longer important to America’s strategic interests. According to the third section of the U.S. National Security Strategy document signed by President Biden in October 2022, America's top priority on the global stage is to surpass China, followed by limiting Russia's influence. The national security priorities also include combating terrorism in the Middle East.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Islamic State, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and United States of America
16. Why China Is Taking Sides Against Israel—and Why It Will Likely Backfire
- Author:
- Michael Singh
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When news broke of the Hamas attack on Israel last month, the silence from Beijing was conspicuous amid the din of international statements. When the government finally addressed the conflict at a press conference the day after, its words were remarkable for being unremarkable. An unnamed Foreign Ministry spokesperson expressed “deep concern,” called on “relevant parties to remain calm, exercise restraint, and immediately end the hostilities,” and lamented the “protracted standstill of the peace process”—a diplomatic endeavor in which Beijing has never shown more than a passing interest. The wording was nearly identical to China’s reactions during past Gaza conflicts, despite the fact that the circumstances were radically different. Because the brief remarks failed to condemn Hamas or even recognize the scale of the horrors that occurred on October 7, Israeli commentators interpreted them not as neutral, but as hostile. Beijing soon confirmed that interpretation. On October 14, Foreign Minister Wang Yi asserted that Israel’s actions went “beyond the scope of self-defense” and demanded that it stop imposing “group punishment” on Palestinians, while still refusing to condemn Hamas. (For a full listing of Beijing’s official statements on the conflict, see The Washington Institute’s statement tracker.) Chinese media have likewise presented the war as one of Israeli aggression—despite being heavily censored, their early reports were rife with anti-Semitic, anti-Israel commentary claiming that Hamas was defending the two-state solution, even though the group’s past and present actions are patently bent on destroying the Israeli state. Notably, the strident tone in online Chinese commentary moderated in the run-up to President Xi Jinping’s November 15 meeting with President Biden, underscoring the government’s well-established influence over such messaging. This approach is a stark departure from Beijing’s past impassivity toward Middle East conflicts, in which Chinese officials had usually sought to avoid entanglement. Rather, it reflects the government’s new inclination to use far-flung conflicts as opportunities to undermine the United States and score points in the “Global South.” Yet it could also hold longer-term consequences for China, particularly regarding the government’s three-decade effort to improve relations with Israel. In addition, using the current crisis to take potshots at Washington may constrain Beijing’s ability to project impartiality in other regional conflicts.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Strategic Competition, and Palestinians
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Gaza
17. New Poll Sheds Light on Saudi Views of Israel-Hamas War
- Author:
- Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- AWashington Institute poll conducted from November 14 to December 6, a nationally representative sample of 1,000 Saudi citizens measured how Saudi attitudes have shifted due to the Israel-Hamas war. According to responses, the Saudi popular attitude towards the outcome of the war is clear: the overwhelming majority (91%) express agreement with the statement that “despite the destruction and loss of life, this war in Gaza is a win for the Palestinians, Arabs, and Muslims.” And as for the role of the broader Arab world, almost all (96%) agree with the proposal that “Arab countries should immediately break all diplomatic, political, economic, and any other contacts with Israel, in protest against its military action in Gaza.” Polling during a war is likely to produce more volatile results as circumstances shift quickly on the ground—during the current polling period, for instance, the Israel-Hamas war had several major shifts, including a temporary ceasefire from November 24-30 and the subsequent expansion of Israel’s incursions into southern Gaza. However, comparisons with Saudi polling fielded in August can help provide a barometer as to just how sharply this conflict has, at least temporarily, shifted certain attitudes, and how little it has moved others. While Hamas as a movement remains unpopular among the majority of Saudis—in contrast to a new trend of widespread popular support in countries like Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt—just 16% of Saudis say that “Hamas should stop calling for the destruction of Israel, and instead accept a permanent two-state solution to the conflict based on the 1967 borders.” Nor do most believe that Hamas’s attack on October 7 targeted Israeli civilians—the overwhelming majority of Saudis (95%) responded that Hamas did not actually kill civilians when asked about whether they believed the Hamas killing of civilians was against Islam. This view is widespread across the eight countries polled by TWI, and similar results appear in a recently released poll of Palestinians from PSR. There, the overwhelming majority reported that they had not seen any videos of Hamas members committing atrocities, and only 10% of Palestinians (17% of Gazans and 5% of West Bankers) stated that they believed that Hamas committed war crimes in the current war, in comparison to 95% who say the same about Israel. While the majority of Saudis continue to express a negative opinion of Hamas, the Israel-Hamas war has generated a significant boost in its popularity. There has been a thirty point shift in positive attitudes towards Hamas, from just 10% in August to 40% in November/December. Responses in the most recent poll, alongside those in 2014 and 2021, demonstrate the increased popularity Hamas achieves among some Saudis during or in the immediate aftermath of conflict between Hamas and Israel, along with its likely disappearance over time. In the aftermath of the 2021 Hamas-Israel conflict, for instance, five years of steadily decreasing popularity in Saudi Arabia suddenly reversed, though just to a quarter (23%) of the total population.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Conflict, Hamas, and Polls
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Gulf Nations
18. What Does the War in Gaza Mean for Jordan's National Security?
- Author:
- Saud Al-Sharafat
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As the war between Israel and Hamas continues, focus is turned towards the Gaza Strip and Israel proper. Although the ongoing hostilities will eventually die down or cease altogether, the lasting impacts of the war on the broader region are still unknown. Nowhere is this truer than in neighboring Jordan. When Hamas launched its attack on October 7, it had an immediate impact on the Jordanian street and the country’s national security. Despite the chaotic and passionate outpouring of emotion among the public, bilateral cooperation between Jordan and the United States can contribute to assisting the conflicting parties in ultimately achieving peace and security.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, National Security, Conflict, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Jordan
19. Syrians' Reactions to the First Weeks of Israel-Hamas War
- Author:
- Ammar Musarea
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When the al-Qassam Brigades—the military wing of Hamas which the United States classifies as a terrorist organization—launched their al-Aqsa Flood operation, Syrians were already on edge. They had been following news of peaceful protests that have been taking place for almost two months in the Suwayda Governorate, which is majority Druze, as well as in other Syrian governorates. Protestors have called for the end of the Assad regime, the release of tens of thousands of prisoners, and the implementation of UN resolutions on Syria. Meanwhile, the Syrian regime and Russian aircraft have carried out daily bombings on civilians in Idlib and the surrounding countryside, which have displaced more than 100,000 Syrians. The Syrian Network for Human Rights stated that the Assad regime and Russia’s attacks on northwestern Syria have resulted in around 45 civilian deaths including 13 children, 9 women, and 3 humanitarian aid workers. They said that 51 critical facilities had also been targeted during October 2023. Al-Aqsa Flood also comes at a time when Syrians in regime-controlled areas face increasingly difficult living conditions. Concurrently, the International Court of Justice is beginning initial proceedings for Canada and the Netherlands’ case against the Assad regime for crimes of torture. The response to events in Israel and Gaza have not been monolithic; reactions have varied significantly depending on factions’ alliances and proximity to the conflict. On the one hand, there is widespread disillusionment with actors claiming to liberate Palestine, a reflection of how groups like Hamas failed to support the Syrian people’s revolution against the Assad regime. However, Syrians as a whole empathize with Palestinians and reject the killing and forced displacement of Palestinians and destruction of their homes. Simultaneously, Syrians have not forgotten the crimes that the terrorist organization Hezbollah has carried out against them in support of the regime, as well as Hamas’ backstabbing in trying to reestablish ties with the Assad regime. Hamas' close ties with Iran, the main backer of the Damascus government, are another source of anger in anti-regime circles.
- Topic:
- Public Opinion, Syrian War, Hamas, and October 7
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Syria
20. Morocco and North Africa Are Feeling Anti-Normalization Ripples from the Gaza War
- Author:
- Sabina Henneberg
- Publication Date:
- 10-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- The conflict will make it more difficult for Washington and Israel to preserve—let alone expand—the diplomatic progress they have made with North African governments in recent years, particularly as public opposition intensifies. North Africa has not been spared from the reverberations of the Hamas-Israel war. Morocco may be the country most profoundly affected given its relatively strong relations with Israel and the United States, while anti-normalization trends elsewhere in the region are being firmly reinforced, creating new challenges for Washington.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Public Opinion, Conflict, Normalization, and Hamas
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, North Africa, and Morocco