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21. After Gaza, Recalibrated Prospects for a Geopolitical Europe

Author:
Selin Uysal
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On October 26, the European Council adopted a new set of conclusions relating to the war in Gaza. Notably, these reiterated condemnation of Hamas, Israel’s right to defend itself in line with international law, calls to release all hostages, concern for all civilian lives, the need to ensure humanitarian access to Gaza, and a commitment to achieving a two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Earlier European dissonance regarding the Gaza conflict thus appeared to be replaced by clearer communication. But European unity could soon be tested again, including on humanitarian messaging, which is less easily consented upon than meets the eye. More broadly, whereas the war in Ukraine had given rise to optimism about the emergence of a “geopolitical Europe”—a European Union capable of defining common strategic international objectives and deploying concrete operational means to achieve them—events following the Hamas attacks have exposed divisions within European institutions and highlighted the absence of a clear strategic approach in the southern neighborhood, potentially undermining the ability to achieve such objectives.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Regional Integration, Regional Politics, and Invasion
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Palestine, and Gaza

22. Feature Article: In Search of Hope: Gaza’s Youth Face Death and Row the Boat in Uncertain Waters

Author:
Pal-Think for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
In the scorching summer of 2023, hundreds of Gaza youths driven by depression and despair queued to submit their applications to obtain Turkish visas. In search of a better life, those youths have made the tough decision to travel to Turkey. However, the story does not end at this point. After landing at Turkey, many will attempt illegal migration to Europe using dangerous boats. Since 2007, local reports have confirmed that over 250,000 youths migrated from the Gaza Strip in pursuit of a thriving life in Europe. In August 2023, alone, there were over 16,700 Turkish visa applications submitted by young adults living in the Gaza Strip’s five governates. Interviews with applicants revealed that the most travelled destination is Turkey through which they can migrate to Europe. Young citizens, aged 18 to 30, emphasised that the already deteriorating economic environment in Gaza has created a space for higher immigration rates. Migration from the Gaza Strip has been increasing in recent years. As a result of stagnating economic situation, prospective migrant youth have highlighted that migration is not a voluntary choice but a consequence of prolonged economic hardships. Several research papers have shown that there are no accurate statistics on the people’s number who left Gaza, however, in May 2019 it was cited that more than 40,000 emigrants left Gaza as of the same time in 2018. While the United Nations estimated about 20,000 people left and according to human rights experts in Gaza, 70,000 people left from the period of 2014 until 2020. Although this is just an approximate estimate, these numbers suggest a high percentage of youth migrating from Gaza. According to UNHCR data, close to 150,000 people made their way into the EU this way in 2022 alone.
Topic:
Push Factor, Economic Crisis, and Irregular Migration
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, Gaza, and Mediterranean

23. In the Middle East, Biden Is on the Razor’s Edge

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
US President Joe Biden is walking on thin ice while he attempts to deal with the most serious crisis in the Middle East since the ill-conceived US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003. Biden has orientated his administration’s action along three tracks: supporting Israel; protecting as many Palestinian civilians as possible while also resuscitating the defunct Middle East peace process; and preventing the conflict from extending to the wider region.[1] The problem is, reconciling these three priorities may be impossible.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Civilians, Hamas, Protection, and October 7
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, North America, and United States of America

24. Europe is Stuck Over the Israel-Hamas War

Author:
Maria Luisa Fantappiè and Nathalie Tocci
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Since the horrific attack launched by Hamas on Israeli citizens on 7 October and the brutal ongoing Israeli military response, European governments and publics have rallied behind two diametrically opposite worldviews: unconditional support for Israel’s right to self-defence versus solidarity with Palestinians massacred by Israel’s military operation in Gaza. Europe should work proactively to chart its way in this inflammatory debate, rather than passively buying into the polarising narratives from Israeli and Arab public debates and allowing these to sow divisions, paralyse action, hamper credibility and poison democracies.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Hamas, Narrative, and October 7
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

25. Shifting Paradigms for Israel-Palestine: Why the EU Must Answer the Wake-Up Call Now

Author:
Akram Ezzamouri and Miriam Zenobio
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Three months ago, the most far-right government in the history of Israel was sworn in by the Knesset under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu. Notably, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Kahanist leader of Jewish Power and former convict for racist incitement, has been appointed the head of the newly created Ministry of National Security.[1] Additionally, Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the settler-based Religious Zionism party, has been given major control over the administration of the occupied West Bank as the head of the Finance Ministry.[2] The new government has spurred a nationwide mobilisation in Israel, as many criticise the proposed judicial reform aimed at curtailing the Supreme Court’s power to exercise judicial review of legislation, giving the government control over judicial appointments and granting the Knesset the power to override the Court’s rulings. After weeks of protests – mainly attended by secular liberal Jewish Israelis[3] – the reform has been put on hold as part of a coalition agreement which includes the establishment of a National Guard led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and tasked with handling “Arab unrest”, thus anticipating even more state-sanctioned violence on Palestinians.[4] In fact, the number of Palestinians killed in 2023 is already set to surpass last year’s data, with at least 95 deaths since January.[5] This record in violence has been characterised by near-daily raids carried out by the Israeli military across the occupied West Bank, particularly in Jenin, Nablus and Jericho, aiming at curbing the resurgence of Palestinian armed resistance to the occupation.[6] In the same time span, at least 16 Israelis have been killed.[7]
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Human Rights, European Union, and Occupation
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

26. Israel Is Doing Exactly What Hamas Wants It to Do

Author:
Sarah Cliffe and Hanny Megally
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Center on International Cooperation (CIC)
Abstract:
The conflict between Hamas and Israel is a tragedy in a world already rife with too many crises. Hamas’s massive attack on Israel, predominantly targeting families and children, cannot be justified by the prolonged history of Israel’s occupation of Palestine, no matter how brutal and indifferent the approach to the fate of Palestinians may have been. Just yesterday, a hospital in the north of the Gaza Strip was bombed, causing the loss of hundreds of lives. The ongoing blame game between the two parties further illustrates the deepening hostilities, no matter who is ultimately found to be responsible. In carrying out this attack, Hamas never believed it would overthrow the Israeli state by military force. Rather, it has followed a well-worn playbook of terrorist organizations that aim to provoke excessive retaliation by military and state forces, fostering further grievances and creating a broader base of civil resistance and strife. This basic strategy has been followed by terrorist groups as diverse as the Red Army Faction, Irgun and the Stern Group, and Al-Qaeda. The State of Israel is now, unfortunately, following this playbook, responding with lethal actions in the Gaza Strip. The degree of shock and outrage in Israeli society cannot be overestimated—the more than 1,400 dead are, in proportion to Israel’s size, the equivalent of more than 45,000 dead in the United States. Yet, its response is disproportionate and knowingly breaches international humanitarian law. Israel has demanded that one million Palestinians evacuate their homes and has cut off energy, food supplies, medical supplies, and water to the Gaza Strip. In this piece, Sarah Cliffe and Hanny Megally discuss what should the international community do to prevent an irreversible downward spiral in both societies, in the conflict between them, and in the spillover to the rest of the world?
Topic:
Hamas, Armed Conflict, October 7, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

27. Houthis Target Israel Amid Gaza Conflict - The Yemen Review, September and October 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
11-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The Houthi group (Ansar Allah) claimed responsibility for a series of attempted missile and drone strikes on Israel. The Houthis have threatened to keep up the attacks as long as the Israeli military operation in Gaza continues. Four projectiles were intercepted by a US warship in the Red Sea, where the group has expanded its operations, and it could threaten shipping in the area in the future. Hamas’ deadly incursion into Israel and the subsequent conflict has fueled fears of a broader conflagration across the Arab world, potentially drawing in Iran and the US. While this still appears unlikely, the Houthis’ involvement could yet provoke retaliatory strikes from Israel or the US. The conflict is also proving a boon for recruitment for Al-Qaeda in Yemen. The Houthis staged a massive military parade on September 21 to celebrate the anniversary of their seizure of the capital in 2014. They then cracked down heavily on September 26 revolution celebrations, which mark the end of the Imamate and the beginning of republican rule. Thousands were reportedly arrested and detained, and a number of people were beaten for participation, as the event now carries symbolic importance as resistance against Houthi rule. Yemen has also seen nationwide demonstrations in support of the Palestinians over the course of October. Two border incidents marked a rare resumption of violence between the Houthis and foreign members of the Saudi coalition. Five Bahraini soldiers were killed following a Houthi drone strike along the border on September 25, and four Saudi soldiers were killed in a raid one month later. There has been speculation that the incidents reflect internal dissent over progressing Saudi-Houthi peace talks. Heavy fighting in Al-Dhalea has killed scores of fighters on both sides, though the frontlines have moved little. The renewed violence has been accompanied by the assassination and attempted assassination of local military leaders.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Economy, Houthis, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Saudi Arabia

28. The Red Sea Front - The Yemen Review, November and December 2023

Author:
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Houthi military action in the Red Sea escalated dramatically during November and December, as the group announced the creation of a ‘third front’ against Israel in retaliation for its war in Gaza and military operations along the Lebanese border. Isolated attacks in October, nominally undertaken in solidarity with the besieged residents of Gaza, have mutated into a sustained campaign, with Houthi leaders now threatening to enforce a blockade of all ships headed to Israel through the area. Dozens of missile and drone strikes against maritime traffic have pushed the major shipping and oil companies to reroute their vessels. The attacks have been a public relations coup for the Houthis, who filmed the dramatic hijacking of the cargo ship Galaxy Leader, and have painted themselves as defenders of the Palestinian people. Regional powers have been hesitant to condemn the attacks, which were occurring near daily as of mid-December. The response from the US and other Western powers has been cautious. The US has sent additional warships to the region, and the Pentagon announced the formation of an international task force to protect shipping, though the scope of coordination is not yet clear. Mindful of the popularity of the Houthis’ stance, regional states have refused to officially join the response, with the sole exception of Bahrain. But the task force is unlikely to be the final word in the response. The US, Israel, or other Western nations may still launch strikes if Houthi operations continue unabated. At present they show no signs of stopping, and the group continues to work to improve its maritime power projection. The Houthis have also continued to press on other fronts, launching an attack on Marib in early November. The operation was reportedly the largest in months, and the group has continued to send reinforcements and fortify its positions in the area. Its long-held interest in the governorate’s strategic oil fields does not appear to have abated. The Houthis have also intensified military action in southern Hudaydah, perhaps looking to extend their maritime reach toward the Bab Al-Mandab Strait. A Saudi-Houthi deal, which seemed imminent through much of November, now appears to be on hold. The scale and brazenness of Houthi attacks have given US and Saudi officials pause, even if they still wish for a settlement to be completed. With further military action likely, and the scale of the international response not yet clear, the Houthis’ position vis-à-vis the peace process and the internationally recognized government is now less certain. Should they or the Saudis abandon peace talks, Yemen could face renewed military contestation between the Houthis and their opponents. For its part, the UN Special Envoy’s office announced its continued support for the process. The declining prospects of a deal, which reportedly promised massive Saudi financial relief in the form of public sector salary payments, has further imperiled the cash-strapped internationally recognized government. Saudi assistance promised to the government in August has not arrived, and the Houthis’ Red Sea attacks have dramatically increased already high shipping costs, which are passed on to consumers. The country is particularly vulnerable to such fluctuations as it relies almost entirely on imported foodstuffs, and the economic harm from Houthi operations will be felt most intensely in Yemen. Nearing bankruptcy, the government may no longer be able to pay salaries in the new year. It has already suspended FX auctions to finance basic commodity imports, and with its hard currency reserves exhausted, the value of the new rial has been falling since October. The government’s options to raise revenues are limited. A proposal to sell discounted oil to an Emirati company drew intense backlash, though it is unclear what other avenues are available. The government’s insolvency is perhaps most visible in its inability to provide electricity to the interim capital of Aden. The UAE sent an emergency fuel shipment in November to keep power plants running as an interim measure, but a long-term solution remains elusive.
Topic:
Security, Diplomacy, Houthis, Shipping, and 2023 Gaza War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Yemen, Palestine, Gaza, and Red Sea

29. Messy Diplomacy: Western Balkan Countries Facing the Gaza Conflict

Author:
Srđan Cvijić and Vuk Vuksanović
Publication Date:
12-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Belgrade Centre for Security Policy (BCSP)
Abstract:
The ongoing war that Israel is waging in Gaza against Hamas is one of the most consequential conflicts with serious political implications worldwide. The Gaza conflict has already diverted the world’s attention from what has been the most dominant international conflict in the past year and a half: the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Many countries in the Western Balkans are conflicted about what diplomatic stance to take on the Gaza war, primarily whether they should support Israel or Palestine or remain neutral since their decision-making will have to balance their domestic public, as well as their ties with Israel, Muslim countries and, most importantly, the US and the EU. The vote taken on October 26 in the UN General Assembly (hereinafter: UNGA) on the resolution that called for a truce between Israel and Hamas with a strong emphasis on humanitarian factors demonstrated how conflicted the Western Balkan countries were on the current conflict in Gaza. The pattern of division among the Western Balkan countries on this occasion somewhat diverges from the votes cast in different UN fora in the past decade. Whereas Albania and North Macedonia have continued with their previous positions when it comes to their foreign policy toward the conflict in the Middle East, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro and Serbia have displayed an interesting change.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Hamas, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Western Balkans

30. Fighting the Demonization of Israel at the International Criminal Court

Author:
Eytan Gilboa
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
Fatou Bensouda, the chief prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) at the Hague, has decided to indict senior Israeli policymakers and military officers for committing war crimes in the West Bank and Gaza. Her decision is baseless, preposterous, and discriminatory, and it violates the ICC’s own mission and rules. Bensouda’s action should be placed within the wider context of the Palestinian disinformation, delegitimization, and demonization campaign against Israel at international organizations. Israel should discredit and delegitimize the ICC in turn via aggressive political measures and collaboration with concerned liberal democracies, primarily the US.
Topic:
Human Rights, International Law, Justice, and International Criminal Court (ICC)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and West Bank

31. The Kushner Plan: Economics or politics, which comes first?

Author:
Paul Rivlin
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Paul Rivlin analyzes the "Peace to Prosperity A New Vision for the Palestinian People and the Broader Middle East" plan, sometimes known as the "Deal of the Century," and the potential effects of the plan on the West Bank and Gaza.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Economy, Peace, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, United States of America, and West Bank

32. Preparations for the Nakba March: Hamas’s Cognitive Campaign

Author:
Kobi Michael and Gabi Siboni
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The Hamas leadership in the Gaza Strip is heavily engaged in preparations for a the “Great March of Return,” scheduled for May 14, 2018, when thousands of Gaza’s Palestinians will march toward the security fence and position themselves in tent cities along the Israeli border. The event is intended to highlight the Palestinian refugee issue and connect it to the plight of those living the Gaza Strip
Topic:
International Relations and International Security
Political Geography:
Gaza

33. The Disengagement, Twelve Years On: Implications, Lessons, and an Eye toward the Future

Author:
Amos Yadlin and Gilead Sher
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
The perspective of twelve years since Israel’s disengagement from the Gaza Strip and the northern West Bank confirms that this significant political and security-related event was a correct strategic decision. Regarding the West Bank, it appears that unilateral disengagement as a stand-alone event will not repeat itself. However, a political and security independent process with similar attributes could enable Israel to continue striving for a reality of two states for two peoples, based on a gradual, secure, and responsible end to Israel’s control over the Palestinian people. Efforts should be made to reach agreement with the Palestinians regarding interim measures throughout transitional stages. However, if it becomes clear that an agreement cannot be reached, measures should be implemented independently (regardless of Palestinian consent) aimed at improving Israel’s situation without impairing its security. These measures will need to be carried out in close coordination with the United States and in accordance with US-Israel understandings.
Topic:
Civil War and International Security
Political Geography:
Israel and Gaza

34. The Gaza Strip: An Opportunity for Change?

Author:
Kobi Michael
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Events of recent weeks in both nearby and distant arenas have reshuffled the cards vis-à- vis the state of affairs in the Gaza Strip. The result has been the emergence of possible conditions for change – that is, if Israel takes effective advantage of them and leverages them through cooperation with Egypt and the Gulf states. Yahya Sinwar’s election as the leader of Hamas in the Gaza Strip was followed by Hamas’s issuing of a new policy document, and the decision of the pragmatic Sunni camp, led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, to sever ties with Qatar and impose sanctions on it. In addition, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas decided to reduce the Palestinian Authority’s payments for fuel destined for the power station in the Gaza Strip (a measure that has exacerbated the electricity crisis in Gaza), and Sinwar and a Hamas delegation went to Egypt for meetings with senior Egyptian intelligence officials and long-time Abbas rival Mohammed Dahlan.
Topic:
International Security
Political Geography:
Gaza

35. Palestinians line up for dwindling cash in Gaza

Author:
Pal Think
Publication Date:
12-2008
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Pal-Think For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Local banks in Gaza, under pressure from Israeli sanctions, are running out of cash and desperate Palestinians lined up at branches Monday hoping to pull money out of frozen accounts. But most banks have sharply curtailed withdrawals over the past two weeks and some have posted signs telling customers they cannot take out any more money. The U.N. stopped distributing cash handouts to Gaza’s poorest last week. Economists and bank officials are warning that tens of thousands of civil servants will not be able to cash paychecks next month. “No society can operate without money, but that’s the situation we are reaching in Gaza,” said economist Omar Shaban. The Israeli shekel is a widely used currency in the Gaza Strip, and the territory needs at least 400 million shekels, or about $100 million, each month in new currency to replace aging notes and to pay salaries
Topic:
International Political Economy and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Gaza