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2. The Italy-Africa Summit 2024 and the Mattei Plan: Towards Cooperation between Equals?
- Author:
- Filippo Simonelli, Maria Luisa Fantappiè, and Leo Goretti
- Publication Date:
- 03-2024
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Italy inaugurated its year of G7 presidency with the Italy-Africa summit on 28-29 January in Rome, an event representative of the current government’s ambitions.[1] The long-awaited meeting was the first test for the strategy of “cooperation as equals” with African states that Giorgia Meloni has repeatedly proposed as central to her government's foreign policy. It was also the first occasion to test the real scope of the so-called Mattei Plan for Africa, the project with which the Italian government wants to substantiate this strategy but whose official strategic outline has yet to be announced.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and International Cooperation
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Europe, and Italy
3. Russia’s 2023 foreign policy concept: war against Ukraine, confrontation with the west, and continuation of the tradition of imperialism
- Author:
- Medea Ivaniadze
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- On March 31, 2023, the sixth Concept of the Foreign Policy of the Russian Federation was published (The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation 2023). The document was updated for the first time in six years, the main reason for which is the deteriorating international situation for Moscow amid the Russo-Ukrainian war. The text of the concept is highlighted by harsh and revanchist calls against the West and especially the USA. The document almost entirely refers to the Russo-Ukrainian war, at the same time, the concept shows that the current war is only one part of Russia’s confrontation with the Western world. The concept contains a number of statements inconsistent with the real policy of Russia and even lies, but despite the absurd, propagandistic content of the new document, it is important to find out how the new concept differs from its predecessor, and also what factors Russia relies on in the current difficult international situation? Based on the 2023 Concept of the Foreign Policy of Russia the impact of Russia’s imperialist worldview on its foreign policy in the light of full-scale military intervention in Ukraine, the changed attitude towards the West, the prospects of Russia-West relations, Russia’s attempt to strengthen ties with non-Western countries, and finally, threats from Russia to Georgia are discussed in this publication.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Politics, Russia-Ukraine War, and Threat Assessment
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Georgia, and United States of America
4. The Zeitenwende in German Foreign Policy And The Eastern Partnership
- Author:
- Mariam Macharashvili
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
- Abstract:
- This paper aims to analyze Germany’s approach to the Eastern Partnership against the backdrop of the “turning point” (Zeitwende) in German foreign policy announced by Olaf Scholz in February 2022. The deviation from the previous policy came as a result of Russia’s war against Ukraine, which disrupted the European collective security system and called into question the main characteristics of German foreign policy. The outbreak of the war on the territory of Europe showed the German leadership that the use of non-military means in the foreign policy, as well as their policy of openness and normalization towards the East (Ostpolitik), which largely implies Russia, turned out to be wrong. Russia’s war in Ukraine also became the basis for the rethinking of yet another political concept - change through trade (Wandel durch Handel), according to which trade and economic interdependence with Russia will facilitate its integration into Europe and push it towards peaceful mutual cooperation. Germany’s dependence on Russian natural resources on the one hand gave Russia a lever of political influence, and on the other made the German economy vulnerable.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Partnerships, Regional Integration, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Germany
5. Russia Is Down, But Not Out, in Central Asia
- Author:
- Maximilian Hess
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has weakened its influence in Central Asia, especially in Kazakhstan. Russia is no longer a regional hegemon, which may increase regional instability. Tensions between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan are especially dangerous. Despite Moscow’s diminished influence in Central Asia, regional states cannot afford to completely ignore Russian interests. Western hopes for Central Asian gas resources to be pumped westwards and circumvent Russia remain unlikely to be fulfilled.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Gas, Political stability, Regional Power, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan
6. Turkey vis-à-vis Russia’s War against Ukraine
- Author:
- Özgür Ünlühisarcıklı
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Characterising Turkey’s policy towards Russia’s war on Ukraine is not an easy task. Elements of both support for Ukraine and neutrality have emerged in the past year. An analysis of the fundamentals of Turkey–US relations and Russia–Turkey relations is thus helpful.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Turkey, Ukraine, and United States of America
7. Italy’s Response to the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
- Author:
- Nona Mikhelidze
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In line with the EU’s policy, former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi and current Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni have taken a strong stance in response to the Russian aggression against Ukraine by firmly condemning the invasion and offering their full support for Kyiv’s territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, European Union, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy
8. Reach for the Stars: Bridging Italy’s Potential in Space with Its Foreign and Security Policy
- Author:
- Karolina Muti
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Italian capabilities, expertise and potential in the space sector are not widely known. Among state actors, Rome has actually been a pioneer in the field, boasting a long tradition that started in 1964 when Italy became the third country, after the Soviet Union and the United States, to send a nationally manufactured satellite into orbit.[1] From an industrial standpoint, Italy is among the few countries whose companies cover the whole space value chain.[2] In Europe, Rome is ranked second for total number of assets in orbit and is currently the third contributor to the European Space Agency (ESA).[3] An Italian astronaut, Samantha Cristoforetti, has recently become the first European woman to take command of the International Space Station (ISS).[4]
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Military Strategy, European Union, and Space
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy
9. Forests, foreign policy and trade
- Author:
- Johannes Weberling
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- The EU’s Regulation for Deforestation-free Products (EUDR) marks an important milestone in addressing demand-side deforestation governance, being the first regulation targeting deforestation driven by agriculture. Yet it must be understood as more than an effort to protect the world’s forests – it showcases the European Commission unilaterally acting to promote values and policy ideas abroad. It displays issues of transnational social justice and power discrepancies, shedding light on shifting market power dynamics in global structures. And it questions the EU’s standing as a trustworthy partner on the international stage as well as its relationships with important producer countries. Analysing the EUDR from these angles offers valuable insights that can be transferred to other due diligence instruments that are currently being drafted or negotiated, such as the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD). Unilateral action may provide a semblance of control but is by nature limited in the depth of scope. As its market influence wanes, the need for the EU to position itself as a reliable partner becomes increasingly important. To prevent leakage, demand-side measures such as the EUDR must be paired with supply-side measures. The EUDR’s success will hinge on careful and efficient implementation, accompanied by meaningful consultations and engagements with producer countries. Overall, prioritising the external dimensions of such legislation must first and foremost uphold trust and strengthen collaborative relationships with partner countries.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Regulation, Trade, Forest, and Deforestation
- Political Geography:
- Europe
10. An EU global gateway … to what?
- Author:
- Fanny Sauvignon and Stefania Benaglia
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
- Abstract:
- What is Global Gateway’s unique offer? How does it beat the competition? Why is Global Gateway a values-based offer and what does this entail in practical terms? Amid criticism and comparisons, the EU’s Global Gateway deserves scrutiny and effort to define its purpose and added value, both within and outside the EU. Initially designed as a foreign policy strategy, Global Gateway has not been put to its intended use. Instead, the first two years of implementation have highlighted conceptual and structural challenges that fall short of the EU’s international needs and ambitions. Up to now, it has focused on delivery, namely Team Europe, flagship projects, and investment packages. The EU’s projected power and credibility with its international partners is at stake. However, trusted and resilient connectivity links are difficult to build without putting the foreign policy versus development debate to rest. Differentiating the EU’s offer from its competitors and addressing dwindling credibility requires strong and coherent international leadership. As this CEPS Explainer outlines, resources aggregation approach ‘à la IMEC’, holds the potential to better connect narrative to implementation and build the EU’s external power. Developing on from this, the strategic connectivity clusters (SCCs) approach streamlines international connectivity cooperation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, European Union, Investment, and Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Europe
11. Giorgia Meloni’s Italy and Europe: Ambitions and Realities
- Author:
- Nathalie Tocci and Leo Goretti
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- In autumn 2022, the electoral victory of the right-centre coalition led by Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia (FdI, Brothers of Italy) and the subsequent establishment of her government caused scepticism and apprehension among international commentators. Concerns stemmed not only from it being the first administration in the history of post-war Italy whose majority partner, FdI, is rooted in the post-fascist tradition; more concretely, the inclusion within the coalition of parties such as Matteo Salvini’s Lega (League) and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia (Come on Italy), which had entertained political and personal relations with Vladimir Putin’s Russia prior to the invasion of Ukraine, raised doubts about Italy’s continuing support for Kyiv and the Western coalition. In reality, unwavering Atlanticist and pro-Ukraine views were repeatedly voiced by Meloni during the election campaign already, and – apart from a few unfortunate remarks by single individuals – this stance has been unambiguously upheld by the new government since it took office, as sealed by the Prime Minister’s visit to Kyiv in February and to Washington in July 2023.[1] A more complex picture emerges regarding relations with the European Union and European partners. Historically, in the post-war period, European integration has been a crucial dimension of Italy’s foreign policy, along with Atlanticism and strong support for multilateralism. Rome was one of the founders of the European communities, and European integration was long seen by ruling and opposition parties alike as key to Italy’s economic, cultural and social modernisation. Since the 1990s, however, criticism of the European project began to emerge in Italy, especially among the new centre-right parties, which developed a so-called “Euro-realist” approach when in government, whereby Italy’s national interest would not necessarily coincide with deeper European integration.[2] Outright Euroscepticism became more apparent since the Eurozone and migration “crises” of the 2010s, leading to the emergence of so-called “sovereigntist” narratives depicting the EU as an “antagonist”, which found resonance especially among populist parties.[3] This narrative, however, lost momentum as a result of the unprecedented level of funding granted to Italy through the NextGenerationEU programme in response to the Covid-19 pandemic. In the aftermath of the 2022 election, managing relations with Europe was thus a crucial task for the newly elected Italian government.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Migration, Political Parties, and Giorgia Meloni
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy
12. Critical Crossroads: Tunisia’s Choice between a Comprehensive EU Partnership and Economic Collapse
- Author:
- Ghazi Ben Ahmed
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- ince the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Tunisian authorities reached in October 2022 a staff-level agreement to support Tunisia’s economic policies, Tunisian President Kais Saied has been standing at the Rubicon. Lacking a vision to revive the Tunisian economy, President Saied has opted for a strategy of diversion and scapegoating. By blowing on the embers of xenophobia among his supporters and more recently by stoking the flames in the Middle East, he continues to deflect attention to conceal his economic short-sightedness and claims autonomy from foreign – mainly European – aid, in the name of sovereignty. This posture has now trapped him in his own rhetoric at a time when the Tunisian economy struggles without signs of recovery or resilience in a challenging regional and global landscape. Time is ticking, the situation remains grim, and the country may miss another opportunity to resume economic growth.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Foreign Aid, European Union, Partnerships, and IMF
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Italy, and Tunisia
13. Timing Is Everything: Italy Withdraws from the Belt and Road Initiative
- Author:
- Aurelio Insisa
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- After months of rumours and speculations, on 6 December 2023, the Italian newspaper of record, the Corriere della Sera, broke the news that Rome had finally withdrawn from China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), via a note sent to Beijing three days earlier.[1] In the absence of an explicit request to withdraw before the end of December, the memorandum of understanding (MoU) instrumental to Italy’s participation in the BRI would have automatically been renewed for another five years starting from March 2024. Italy’s subdued withdrawal from the BRI marked the epilogue of a long, laborious, yet ultimately successful diplomatic process that reflected a reassessment of its bilateral relations with China. The origins of this reassessment can be traced back to the government led by Mario Draghi between 2021 and 2022. In June 2021, during the first post-pandemic, post-Trump G7 Leaders’ Summit in Carbis Bay, Draghi stated that his government would “examine […] carefully” the MoU.[2] Draghi’s words reflected a deeper awareness of the broader implications of Beijing’s assertiveness in international politics and a close alignment with the Biden administration in Rome. This shift also reflected the absence of tangible economic benefits from BRI membership for Italy, although this was also due to the devastating effect of the Covid-19 pandemic on the designed trajectory of Sino-Italian economic relations.[3] Furthermore, the security-driven decision of the Draghi government to repeatedly exercise its “golden power” to veto Beijing’s investments in Italy’s strategic sectors contributed to shaping the MoU’s outcome.[4] This course correction in Rome’s China policy survived the fall of the Draghi government in July 2022 and the victory of the centre-right coalition led by Giorgia Meloni and her Fratelli d’Italia (Brothers of Italy, FdI) party in the legislative elections of September that year. After all, Meloni and her party had consistently opposed the MoU with China from the very beginning, a decision arguably also linked to the perceived need to bolster the party’s credentials as a reliable partner in the eyes of Washington – as in the case of the clear support for Ukraine well before the September electoral victory.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Foreign Direct Investment, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and International Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Asia, and Italy
14. Shifting Paradigms for Israel-Palestine: Why the EU Must Answer the Wake-Up Call Now
- Author:
- Akram Ezzamouri and Miriam Zenobio
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Three months ago, the most far-right government in the history of Israel was sworn in by the Knesset under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu. Notably, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Kahanist leader of Jewish Power and former convict for racist incitement, has been appointed the head of the newly created Ministry of National Security.[1] Additionally, Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the settler-based Religious Zionism party, has been given major control over the administration of the occupied West Bank as the head of the Finance Ministry.[2] The new government has spurred a nationwide mobilisation in Israel, as many criticise the proposed judicial reform aimed at curtailing the Supreme Court’s power to exercise judicial review of legislation, giving the government control over judicial appointments and granting the Knesset the power to override the Court’s rulings. After weeks of protests – mainly attended by secular liberal Jewish Israelis[3] – the reform has been put on hold as part of a coalition agreement which includes the establishment of a National Guard led by Itamar Ben-Gvir and tasked with handling “Arab unrest”, thus anticipating even more state-sanctioned violence on Palestinians.[4] In fact, the number of Palestinians killed in 2023 is already set to surpass last year’s data, with at least 95 deaths since January.[5] This record in violence has been characterised by near-daily raids carried out by the Israeli military across the occupied West Bank, particularly in Jenin, Nablus and Jericho, aiming at curbing the resurgence of Palestinian armed resistance to the occupation.[6] In the same time span, at least 16 Israelis have been killed.[7]
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, European Union, and Occupation
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
15. Italy’s Pivot to the Indo-Pacific – Towards a Value-driven Foreign Policy?
- Author:
- Nicola Casarini
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Italy is stepping up its involvement in the Indo-Pacific, both in the economic and security realms. The cabinet led by Giorgia Meloni – a centre-right coalition often portrayed by commentators as right-wing and nationalist – is rebalancing Rome’s policy in the Far East by scaling down ties with Beijing and by effectively lending support to the United States and its Asian allies vis-à-vis an increasingly assertive and self-confident China. Moving away from previous centre-left governments that tended to prioritise commercial relations with Beijing, the conservative coalition in power since September 2022 has been fostering defence-related cooperation with Japan and India and chip-related cooperation and investments with Taiwan. Moreover – and remarkably for a country that has long been absent from Asian security – the Italian government has sent a patrol vessel to the South China Sea and plans to forward the country’s flagship aircraft carrier to the area to conduct joint exercises with the navies of Australia, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States. The quantity and quality of initiatives being undertaken warrant the label of an Italian ‘pivot’ to the Indo-Pacific. By upgrading its presence in the region, Italy joins the other G7 nations in their efforts to uphold the rules-based order and dissuade Beijing from invading Taiwan. However, to consolidate the western anchorage of this pivot, the Meloni government needs to fully align its policy towards Beijing with that of the Euro-Atlantic allies – which includes deciding whether to continue to lend Italy’s official support to China’s Belt and Road Initiative or not.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Economy, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
- Political Geography:
- China, Europe, Taiwan, Asia, Italy, and Indo-Pacific
16. Present and Future of Italy’s Development Cooperation
- Author:
- Irene Paviotti and Daniele Fattibene
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The Covid-19 pandemic and the war against Ukraine, with their significant socio-economic costs, have put stronger pressure on development assistance spending among traditional donors, as the cases of Sweden and the United Kingdom attest.[1] Confronted with higher energy costs, inflation and a potential recession, the political imperative across Europe is to allocate resources to tackle immediate domestic challenges rather than expanding international development programmes – against all the lessons of interdependence that the pandemic might have taught. Italy is not immune to this trend, as recent developments also seem to suggest.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, International Cooperation, Public Opinion, and Economic Aid
- Political Geography:
- Europe and Italy