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81. Not Yet Time for Diplomacy. Lessons from Italy’s Ill-Conceived Peace Plan for Ukraine

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro and Nona Mikhelidze
Publication Date:
06-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Few may have noticed, but Italy recently advanced its own diplomatic proposal for a resolution of the war in Ukraine. Rome’s ambitious peace plan[1] received little international recognition, although it was reportedly shared with the Quint – an informal consultation group comprising the United States, France, Germany, the United Kingdom and Italy – and formally presented to UN Secretary General António Guterres on 18 May 2022.[2] Crucially, the plan failed to impress the leaderships in both Ukraine[3] and Russia,[4] leading Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio to put it aside on the grounds that circumstances are not “ripe” for such an initiative.[5]
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Peace, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy

82. How Italians View Military Spending

Author:
Pierangelo Isernia, Rossella Borri, and Sergio Martini
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
On 16 March, a sweeping majority in the Italian Chamber of Deputies approved order 9/3491-A/35 committing the Italian government to raise the defence budget to 2 per cent of GDP.[1] Taken in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, this decision strengthens Italy’s adherence to the commitment made by NATO countries in 2004 and reiterated at the 2014 NATO summit in Newport, Wales. The announcement comes after half a decade of increasing Italian defence spending. Having decreased from 1.5 per cent of GDP in 2010 to 1.2 per cent in 2015, Italy’s military expenditures started to grow again, reaching 1.6 per cent of GDP in 2020. This figure is still considerably lower than the UK’s 2.2 per cent or France’s 2 per cent, but higher than Germany’s and Spain’s 1.4 per cent.[2] To understand the broader context within which Italy has decided to renew its commitment to the NATO target, Italian public opinion should be factored in. In this respect, opinion polls conducted prior to the war in Ukraine can shed some light on Italian attitudes toward defence spending in general and the 2 per cent NATO pledge specifically.
Topic:
Public Opinion, Budget, and Military Spending
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

83. The EU and the Ukraine War: Making Sense of the Rise of a “Geopolitical” Union

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
By ordering Russian armed forces into Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin has arguably made the greatest blunder of his twenty-two-year long rule. The Russian president seems to have underestimated not just Ukraine’s capacity to resist the invasion, but also the resolve of the United States and its partners to oppose it.[1] If that is indeed the case, the greatest surprise must have come from the European Union.
Topic:
Sanctions, European Union, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

84. Russian Energy Exports and the Conflict in Ukraine: What Options for Italy and the EU?

Author:
Margherita Bianchi and Pier Paolo Raimondi
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Putin’s war on Ukraine has shaken the European Union to its core. Implications will be long lasting in numerous domains, but it is in the security and energy dimensions that concrete changes are already becoming evident as the EU fast tracks its strategy for energy diversification. The Russian invasion has drastically changed the European energy paradigm, with the new political absolute being a fast reduction of Europe’s overdependence on Russian gas. Diversifying energy supplies away from Russia is a means to tighten the economic noose around Putin, seeking to deprive the Kremlin of billions in energy revenue given that Russia continues to export oil, gas and coal to Europe at very high prices.
Topic:
Security, Sanctions, European Union, Gas, Energy, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Italy

85. Russia–Ukraine Talks and the Indispensable Role of the US and Europe

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Vladimir Putin’s imperialist war of conquest in Ukraine is about to enter its fifth week. Russia’s failure to shock and awe Ukraine’s government and armed forces into submission through a poorly executed Blitzkrieg has morphed into a slow and ever more brutal three-front campaign. While Russian forces struggle to make strides in the north and east, they have been more successful in the south, where they are about to deprive Ukraine from access to the Sea of Azov.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Conflict Management, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and United States of America

86. Importance of Maintaining and Strengthening NATO’s Nuclear Deterrence: A Historical Overview

Author:
Megi Benia
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Nuclear deterrence is a core pillar of NATO’s defense and deterrence policy. At the same time, the Alliance, which is not a formal party to any arms control negotiation, has a long-standing commitment to an active policy in arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation. The Alliance has been regularly conducting consultations in different fora - the North Atlantic Council, the Nuclear Planning Group and the Defense Planning Committee – to constantly address the ongoing challenges of the arms control architecture. Currently, NATO successfully maintains the balance between its nuclear deterrence and disarmament aspirations. However, it does not represent an easy task for the organization of 30 member states. Over the years, NATO has suffered from a serious nuclear identity crisis. Many Allies tried to increase the Alliance’s arms-control profile while others gradually opposed any further changes in this direction. The positioning of NATO in this regard has been constantly shaped by significant shifts in the international security environment. Despite the contested view on maintaining NATO’s nuclear deterrence, the Alliance managed to evolve as a nuclear alliance, effectively ensuring peace and security in the Euro-Atlantic area. Today, European security faces the biggest security challenge since World War II when one state wages an unprovoked and unjustified war against another sovereign and independent state on the doorsteps of NATO, threatening the world with the use of nuclear weapons. In this unprecedented environment, it is important for NATO to maintain and further strengthen its nuclear deterrence posture to ensure peace and stability for generations to come. Therefore, this article will demonstrate a historical overview of the evolution of NATO as a nuclear alliance and the importance of strengthened nuclear deterrence and conventional defense capabilities.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, History, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Europe

87. Politics, War and Eastern Mediterranean Gas

Author:
Joshua Krasna
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
In the past two months, there have been several significant, interlocking developments regarding Eastern Mediterranean gas. In January, the Biden Administration withdrew American support for the Israeli-Cypriot-Greek EastMed gas pipeline. In February, U.S. officials shuttled between Israel and Lebanon for another round of talks to resolve the question of the maritime border and the exclusive rights to exploit gas in their disputed waters. Most importantly, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which began in late February, has transformed the long-discussed European need to reduce its dependence on Russian gas (and oil) into an urgent priority. It has also exposed the disconnect between optimistic policies that anticipated an imminent shift to renewable resources and the reality that the developed world will, in the short- to medium-term, remain dependent on fossil fuels. Confronted with this new reality, does Europe's need to rapidly diversify its sources of energy increase the strategic value of Eastern Mediterranean gas? And can the Eastern Mediterranean contribute meaningfully to reducing Europe's dependence on Russian gas?
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Energy Policy, Politics, War, and Gas
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Lebanon, Egypt, and United States of America

88. Lessons from the T20: Five Priorities for Italian Infrastructure Investment

Author:
Fulvio Bersanetti, Nicola Bilotta, Raffaele Della Croce, Valeria Lauria, and Nicolò Russo Perez
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
As states and societies continue to struggle with the pandemic, a fundamental element of the post-Covid recovery will be the capacity to revive both public and private investments in infrastructure, thereby boosting growth and employment. Differently than previous crises, reorienting infrastructure investment to respond to the new social and environmental needs will also be needed, starting with health and poverty reduction, as well as climate change and the digitalisation drive. Italy is no exception. Under the Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) promoted by the European Union, Italy will receive 191 billion euro in which infrastructure investments will play a fundamental role. To unlock its full economic potential and pursue a successful post-Covid recovery, Italy should embrace five key priorities for infrastructure investment.
Topic:
Infrastructure, Finance, Sustainable Development Goals, Investment, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

89. A Healthier and More Sustainable Global Food System: What is at Stake for the EU?

Author:
Marta Antonelli
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Fixing the global food system is arguably the most powerful leverage to nurture the world’s population while keeping human activity within the biophysical limits of the planet. Yet, food systems are today a threat to both human and planetary health, and thus require bold and forward-looking strategies as well as multi-stakeholder collaboration.
Topic:
Agriculture, Climate Change, Health, Politics, Natural Resources, European Union, Food Security, and Sustainable Development Goals
Political Geography:
Europe

90. A Digital Euro in Search of an Identity

Author:
Franco Passacantando
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The recent proliferation of crypto assets and other digital currencies is rapidly transforming the financial industry and the very concept of money. In response to these developments, many central banks are considering the possibility of introducing a central bank digital currency (CBDC), to be used as an alternative to cash. These trends have led to a lively debate on the role that a new sovereign digital currency could play in the monetary system. Some claim that the creation of a CBDC looks like a solution in search of problem because the private sector is already responding to the needs of faster and cheaper payment services.[1] The opposite view is that, if nothing is done, central banks could eventually lose the capacity to conduct monetary policy, to preserve financial stability and to ensure the proper functioning of the payment system. While the European Central Bank (ECB) has yet to make a final decision, in July 2021 it announced the start of a two-year “investigation phase” on the possible introduction of a euro CBDC, in which the views of prospective users and of those who will distribute the new currency will be sought.
Topic:
European Union, Finance, Currency, and Digital Policy
Political Geography:
Europe