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102. Planetary health: An alternative framework for disaster governance in ASEAN?
- Author:
- S. Nanthini and Lina Gong
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the search for a better way of managing human activities and their environmental impact thereby zeroing in on the specific actions needed to maintain a balance for Planet Earth’s sustainability.
- Topic:
- Environment, Health, International Cooperation, Governance, Sustainability, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
103. Next Steps for Disaster Resilience in ASEAN
- Author:
- Alistair D B Cook and Christopher Chen
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The challenges posed in responding to natural hazards during the global COVID-19 pandemic were felt across Southeast Asia. As travel restrictions and supply chain disruptions ease up, it is time to revaluate disaster management and not simply revert to old ways.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Resilience, COVID-19, and Disaster Management
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
104. ndonesia’s 2060 Net-Zero Ambition: The Challenges Ahead
- Author:
- Margareth Sembiring
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Recent developments in Indonesia’s sustainability outlook that includes a net-zero goal by 2060 are pointing to stronger commitments to reducing carbon emissions from energy use. At the same time, short- to medium-term realities, and a lack of public trust may derail the long-term sustainability vision.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Sustainability, and Carbon Emissions
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Asia
105. Global Food Insecurity – The Danger of Misguided Food Production Policies: The Case of Sri Lanka
- Author:
- Paul Teng and Jose M. L. Montesclaros
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Russia-Ukraine conflict has aggravated food insecurity worldwide and encouraged various countries to find new ways to manage this threat, including policies to substitute costly imported agricultural inputs like synthetic fertilizers and pesticides. Sri Lanka’s recent experience shows that drastic policy changes can have disastrous political and societal consequences.
- Topic:
- Politics, Food, Food Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Sri Lanka
106. Uncertainty in the Black Sea: Implications for Asia’s Food Security
- Author:
- Jose M. L. Montesclaros
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- There has been increasing uncertainty, with Russia opting out from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and re-joining five days later. In this brief period, wheat and maize prices jumped for commodity traders. These events portend continuing instability in supply of essential food items amid the Ukraine war and putting Asia’s food security at risk.
- Topic:
- Security, Food, Food Security, and Strategic Stability
- Political Geography:
- Asia
107. The Quad and HADR Operations: Prospects for Cooperation with Southeast Asia
- Author:
- Christopher Chen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- Quad leaders met in New York on 23 September 2022 and signed into operation the Guidelines for the ‘Quad Partnership on Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) in the Indo-Pacific’. This represents an expansion of the scope of the Quad alliance and opens new prospects for ASEAN and Southeast Asia in this critical area of human security.
- Topic:
- Security, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
108. Small Modular Reactors in the Philippines’ Journey Toward Nuclear Energy
- Author:
- Julius Caesar Trajano
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Philippines is seeking nuclear energy partnerships with various countries and allies as it aims to address the twin challenges of achieving energy security and reducing carbon emissions. How can advanced small modular nuclear reactors help the Philippines in its transition to clean energy?
- Topic:
- Security, Energy Policy, Nuclear Power, Nuclear Energy, and Green Transition
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Philippines
109. CAN DEBT RELIEF CONSTRAIN REPRESSIVE GOVERNMENTS?
- Author:
- Brett L. Carter
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The African continent is confronting the prospect of a new debt crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on government finances. The Russian government’s war against Ukraine has increased the cost of food and energy, and compelled investors to sell off government bonds in emerging markets. Rising interest rates in the United States will increase the cost of borrowing. The Chinese economy is struggling under the weight of Xi Jinping’s “Zero COVID” policy and accumulated real estate debt. In 2015, the International Monetary Fund announced that eight countries were in debt distress. By March 2022, 23 were. In June, public debt ratios reached a 20-year high. Africa’s debt-distressed governments “are unlikely to default” in 2022,” The Economist observed, “but face trouble by 2024.” There is some evidence that the debt crisis is especially acute for Africa’s non-democracies. The impending debt crisis coincides with a general sense that Africa is experiencing a democratic recession. Voters are increasingly subject to intimidation and violence. Incumbent presidents are removing term limits. The longstanding norm against military coups is fading.
- Topic:
- Cold War, Debt, World Bank, GDP, Repression, and IMF
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Russia, China, Ukraine, Asia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and United States of America
110. WILL NANCY PELOSI’S VISIT TO TAIWAN TRIGGER A CRISIS?
- Author:
- James Lee and Jackie Wong
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- The controversy surrounding Nancy Pelosi’s (D-CA) potential visit to Taiwan centers on what it implies about United States’ relations with Taiwan. When the United States normalized relations with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in 1979, it said it would continue relations with Taiwan on an unofficial basis. The Normalization Communique said that “the people of the United States will maintain cultural, commercial, and other unofficial relations with the people of Taiwan.” Beijing has interpreted this statement as a commitment, and it has warned Washington that closer government-to-government interactions with Taipei would violate that commitment and have dire, though unspecified, consequences. But there’s no formula for determining what “unofficial” means. The canonical statements of the United States’ One-China policy—the Shanghai Communiqué, the Normalization Communiqué, the Arms Sales Communiqué, the Taiwan Relations Act, and the Six Assurances—are written at a high level of abstraction. There is no communiqué in which the United States said that the Speaker of the House would never visit Taiwan; those kinds of details are left to diplomatic protocols (such as the “contact guidelines”) that the United States has defined on its own. It is an act of interpretation—an art rather than a science—and the question now is whether a visit by Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan would be outside the bounds of a reasonable interpretation of “unofficial” relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Armed Forces, People's Liberation Army (PLA), and Nancy Pelosi
- Political Geography:
- China, Taiwan, Asia, North America, and United States of America
111. MANAGING CONFLICT BETWEEN INTERNATIONAL RIVALS
- Author:
- Elizabeth Radziszewski and Jeremy Berkowitz
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Sweden’s and Finland’s recent decisions to join NATO marked a historic moment for the two Nordic states known for their neutrality. The move not only reflects evolving security concerns about Russia’s aggression in Ukraine but marks a shift that is set to end decades of accommodation toward Russia. It also sheds light on a broader question about why some rival countries—or those that have a history of tensions—sustain policies of accommodation over the years, and what pushes them to abandon such policies. Why would Sweden and Finland refrain from alienating Russia for years only to break suddenly with this tradition with their unprecedented decision to apply for NATO membership?
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, Military, and Conflict Management
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, Finland, Asia, Spain, North Africa, Sweden, Morocco, and United States of America
112. Revising down the rise of China
- Author:
- Roland Rajah and Alyssa Leng
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- China will likely experience a substantial long-term growth slowdown owing to demographic decline, the limits of capital-intensive growth, and a gradual deceleration in productivity growth. Even with continued broad policy success, our baseline projections suggest annual economic growth will slow to about 3% by 2030 and 2% by 2040, while averaging 2–3% overall from now until 2050. China would still become the world’s largest economy, but it would never enjoy a meaningful lead over the US and would remain far less prosperous and productive per person even by mid-century.
- Topic:
- Demographics, Economy, Economic Growth, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and United States of America
113. How Authoritarian Legacies Play a Role in Shaping Electoral Volatility in Asia
- Author:
- Don S. Lee and Fernando Casel Bertoa
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- High electoral volatility can result in the disillusionment of the democratic system, allowing illiberal politicians and anti-political-establishment parties to gain a foothold. In this briefing, Don S. Lee, an Assistant Professor in the School of Governance and the Department of Public Administration at Sungkyunkwan University, and Fernando Casal Bertoa, an Associate Professor in the School of Politics and International Relations at the University of Nottingham, evaluate the impacts of different authoritarian legacies on electoral volatility across Asia. Their study also analyzes the effect time has on the electoral stability of democracies across varying authoritarian legacies. Finally, they explain how through deliberate routinization of political behavior, political leaders can protect democracy and stabilize party politics, regardless of their country’s authoritarian history.
- Topic:
- Politics, Authoritarianism, Elections, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Asia
114. The Geopolitics of Human Trafficking and Gendered North Korean Migration
- Author:
- Eunyoung Christina Choi
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- According to the “White Paper on Human Rights in North Korea 2021,” human-trafficking targeted at North Korean defectors in China remains a grave issue ? not only are North Korean women sold without their consent, but they are also forced to prostitution at entertainment establishments. In this commentary, Eunyoung Christina Choi, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Peace and Unification Studies (IPUS) at Seoul National University, looks into the dire circumstances North Korean women defectors find themselves in during their pursuit to defect. She explains that the international community’s interest in and measures against the human-trafficking of North Korean female defectors have been dominated by geopolitical interests and have in turn exacerbated women’s prospects to safely defect.
- Topic:
- Women, Borders, and Human Trafficking
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and North Korea
115. South Korea’s 2022 Presidential Election: A Vox Populi that is Evenly Divided
- Author:
- Jung Kim
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- During the recent March election, presidential candidate Suk-yeol Yoon of the opposition party overtook candidate Jae-myung Lee of the current ruling party by a close margin. Jung Kim, Professor at the University of North Korean Studies, points out that upon entering office, present-elect Yoon will be faced with the challenges of a divided cabinet, divided government, and divided public. He explains that this is due to extensive partisan mobilization and that the future of Korean democracy lies in the Yoon administration`s response to such multi-level challenges.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
116. An Assessment of North Korea’s ICBM Technology and South Korea’s Countermeasures
- Author:
- Sangmin Lee
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In this Commentary, Sangmin Lee, Director of the North Korean Military Research Division at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), provides an evaluation of North Korea’s ICBM technology, discusses the threat behind North Korea’s development of tactical nuclear weapons, and suggests ways in which South Korea can deter North Korean military threat. While North Korea has accelerated progress in its pursuit towards technological advancements in nuclear weapons and missile capabilities, Dr. Lee claims that ICBM development still remains as a daunting task for North Korea due to difficulties in acquiring technology and strategic materials. Nonetheless, formidable threats lie behind North Korea’s aspirations to secure military superiority on the Korean Peninsula. In this regard, the author states that the “imbalance of fear” between South and North Korea arising from Seoul’s lack of facilities protective of nuclear attacks is a key issue and underscores the need for Seoul to offset the discrepancy and prepare in advance.
- Topic:
- Weapons of Mass Destruction, Alliance, and Deterrence
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and United States of America
117. Political Polarization in Asia: Cleavages and Agencies of Polarization in India, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand
- Author:
- Sook Jong Lee
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Political polarization is a process of simplifying politics by presenting either-or-choices to the public. In many cases, polarization damages democracy by dividing the electorate into two mutually mistrustful camps. Political polarization is mainly used by political elites, including government and party leaders, as a strategy to mobilize their supporters and concentrate their power. Based on the literature of political polarization, EAI Senior Fellow Sook Jong Lee (professor at Sungkyunkwan University) examines four Asian case countries (India, the Philippines, South Korea, and Thailand). The author notes that characteristics of political polarization differ from country to country, which is evidenced through the division of political ideology during various Thai military coups and the separation between the Hindu and Muslim communities in India. She also warns against the possible aftermaths of political polarization such as the breakdown or erosion of democracy.
- Topic:
- Politics, Democracy, Polarization, and Democratic Backsliding
- Political Geography:
- India, Asia, South Korea, Philippines, and Thailand
118. Transitional Justice and Reconciliation in Asia: Lessons Learned from Korea, Sri Lanka, and Taiwan
- Author:
- Hun Joon Kim
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- In this issue briefing, Dr. Hun Joon Kim, professor of Political Science and International Relations at Korea University, provides an overview and analysis of the ADRN’s Working Paper Series on Transitional Justice and Reconciliation in Asia. He finds that in Sri Lanka, Korea, and Taiwan, past instances of human rights violations were complex and unique; perpetrators, international dynamics, and the inevitable “politicization” of justice efforts have each created unique obstacles to and nuances in the pursuit of justice. Kim argues, however, that a few conclusions can be drawn from the three cases: first, that the trend in Asia is towards justice and away from impunity; second, that the transitional justice process is gradual, winding, and cannot be solved in one fell swoop; and third, that transitional justice is not simply a state-led process-the pursuit of reconciliation involves the entire nation: government, civil society, and civilians.
- Topic:
- Human Rights, Transitional Justice, Accountability, Reconciliation, and Reparations
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan, Asia, Sri Lanka, and Korea
119. Chinese Surveillance Devices: Coming to a Neighborhood Near You
- Author:
- Jayson Browder, Valerie Shen, and Mike Sexton
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Third Way
- Abstract:
- The Chinese government conducts cyber espionage against the US on an unprecedented scale. Senior US intelligence officials have warned the “Internet of Things” is a US counterintelligence and cybersecurity vulnerability. Tens of billions of connected physical devices from Chinese-made webcams to “smart” appliances could be exploited at scale by the Chinese intelligence services. In 2016, the malware “Mirai” was able to weaponize more than half a million devices in a Denial-of-Service attack causing a massive East Coast Internet outage. Unaddressed, these threats will only increase as China exports surveillance devices around the world.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Surveillance, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
120. Three Reasons Why CHIPS-plus is a Big Win for US National Security
- Author:
- Tom Klein
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Third Way
- Abstract:
- On August 9th, 2022, President Biden signed vital bipartisan legislation to compete with China. H.R. 4346, called the CHIPS and Science Act or “CHIPS-plus,” would pave the way for nearly $280 billion in incentives to boost US-based chip manufacturing, scientific research, technology standards setting, and STEM education. These initiatives directly protect our immediate security vulnerabilities in the US military and support our long-term national security competition with China by promoting democratic norms and spurring critical defense innovations.
- Topic:
- Security, National Security, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, Innovation, and CHIPS
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North America, and United States of America