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2. Disaster Management in Southeast Asia: 20 Years of Progress and Challenges
- Author:
- Mely Caballero-Anthony, Alistair D B Cook, and Jonatan Anderias Lassa
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- The management of consequences arising from natural hazards in Southeast Asia has seen laudable advancement in the last 20 years. The Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has played a positive role in this progress. However, there is emerging disaster policy inertia that reflect local realities at the ASEAN and global levels.
- Topic:
- Regional Cooperation, Regionalism, and Disaster Management
- Political Geography:
- Asia and ASEAN
3. China’s “Catchup” on Growing Genetically Modified Crops
- Author:
- Paul Teng and Genevieve Donnellon-May
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- China, the world’s largest importer of corn and soybean, seems finally to accept the potential of using genetically modified (GM) feed crops. Will this be enough to reduce China’s dependency on such imports and will it meet the demands of other countries that are also experiencing an increase in demand for feed to increase production of animal meat?
- Topic:
- Agriculture, Science and Technology, Food, and Production
- Political Geography:
- China and Asia
4. Southeast Asia Aid Map - Key Findings Report
- Author:
- Alexandre Dayant, Grace Stanhope, and Roland Rajah
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Lowy Institute for International Policy
- Abstract:
- Official development finance plays an important role in financing Southeast Asia’s development, equivalent to around 10% of total government development spending in the region. China is Southeast Asia’s single largest development partner and leads infrastructure financing. Yet, implementation problems have seen the scale of China’s financing decline in recent years. Traditional development partners collectively still dominate development financing in Southeast Asia at 80% of the total. The multilateral development banks lead the way, followed by Japan, Europe, and South Korea. The United States and Australia are mid-sized players. India and the Middle East have become notable sources of non-traditional development finance, with the Islamic Development Bank playing an important role. Climate development finance is increasing, but Southeast Asia will need more support if it is to transition towards resilient, low-carbon development. Intraregional development cooperation is growing, but only makes up a small part of development finance in Southeast Asia.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Finance, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Southeast Asia
5. Australia’s Role Supporting Democracies as a Middle Power
- Author:
- Michael J. Green and Victoria Cooper
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Michael J. Green (Professor and CEO of the United States Study Centre (USSC) in Sydney) and Victoria Cooper (Research Editor at the USSC) analyze Australia’s strengths as a middle power in the face of Beijing’s pressure campaign, and offer areas of regional cooperation that like-minded countries, including Australia, can build upon in order to defend democracy against authoritarian regimes. While acknowledging the limited capacity of Australia to independently counter Beijing’s illiberal behavior, the authors argue that through the expansion of development initiatives, promotion of women’s empowerment, and anti-corruption drives, Canberra can play a key role in leading multilateral efforts to promote democratic resilience in the region.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Statecraft, Middle Power, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, and Australia
6. Japan’s Gradual Move to Address Technological Challenges to Democracy
- Author:
- Maiko Ichihara
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Maiko Ichihara, a professor at Hitotsubashi University Graduate School of Law, explores the challenges that technological advancements pose to democracy and analyzes Japan’s recent efforts to regulate disinformation and protect private data. Despite the absence of global regulations on digital technology, Ichihara highlights Japan’s domestic fact-checking efforts as well as its multilateral initiatives with G7 to create action plans promoting international cooperation against disinformation and data privacy abuse. In order to bolster democracy in the digital realm, she advocates for a proactive development of counter-narratives to fake news on social media.
- Topic:
- Science and Technology, Democracy, Regulation, Privacy, Social Media, G7, Disinformation, Data Collection, and Digital Space
- Political Geography:
- Japan and Asia
7. Restoring Democracy in Myanmar: A Call for Bolstered Anti-Junta Resistance Forces
- Author:
- Lin Htet Myat
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- February 2023 marks the second anniversary of the military coup in Myanmar that ousted its civilian government and cracked down on democratic protests. Lin Htet Myat, a political analyst from Myanmar, assesses the grim situation in the country and offers new approaches that both the international community and the Burmese anti-junta forces should take to facilitate the restoration of democracy. The author argues that the international community must not engage the junta to seek for a peaceful resolution, and instead strengthen material support and communication with anti-junta forces within Myanmar. Meanwhile, Burmese democratic resistance forces should bolster military cooperation among like-minded groups and build trust in preparation for a federal democratic Myanmar.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Coup, Humanitarian Crisis, and ASEAN
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Myanmar
8. Taiwan’s Civic Space Threatened by Chinese Misinformation and the Government’s Worrisome Legislative Responses
- Author:
- Chin-en Wu
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Civic space in Taiwan is consistently threatened by misinformation campaigns and operations run by external forces, particularly mainland China. Chin-en Wu, an associate research fellow at the Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica, assesses that China disseminates fake news to portray positive image of itself while creating internal polarization and competition in Taiwan. The Taiwanese government has attempted to take various measures, such as amending the Social Order Maintenance Act and introducing social media regulation bill, to counter the rampant Chinese misinformation activities. Although Wu acknowledges that the Taiwanese government should collaborate with the civil society to safeguard the island from misinformation, Wu warns that the government must be conscious of the potential damage that the restrictive measures against fake news could inflict on Taiwan’s liberal democracy.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Social Media, Misinformation, and Civic Engagement
- Political Geography:
- Taiwan and Asia
9. One Thing It Lacks: South Korea’s North Korea Policy in 2023 National Security Strategy
- Author:
- Yang Gyu Kim
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Yang Gyu Kim, Principal Researcher at the East Asia Institute, conducts a critical analysis of the new National Security Strategy published on June 7, 2023 and offers policy recommendations for the ROK government’s DPRK policy outlined in the document. While Kim identifies with the National Security Office’s emphasis on strengthening deterrence measures against growing DPRK nuclear and missile threats, he highlights that South Korean countermeasures create a feedback loop that affects North Korea’s threat perception. The author, therefore, points out the limits of the current 3D (Deterrence, Dissuasion, Dialogue) approach and recommends including a “Development” strategy to encourage Pyongyang to envision an alternative future path of prosperity and voluntarily take the denuclearization path.
- Topic:
- Development, National Security, Deterrence, Dialogue, and Threat Perception
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
10. Tasks for North Korea Policy After the Washington Declaration
- Author:
- Yu-hwan Koh
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Yu-hwan Koh, the President of the Korea Institute for National Unification, acknowledges the progress made in maintaining the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty regime and bolstering extended deterrence capabilities against North Korean nuclear threats through the Washington Declaration. Nevertheless, he underscores the lack of a fundamental solution to halt further advancements in Pyongyang's nuclear capabilities. Dr. Koh emphasizes the importance of establishing normalized relations between the United States and North Korea, particularly considering that North Korea now possesses nuclear weapons and is unlikely to return to denuclearization talks. In response, he reiterates the significance of the ROK-US alliance in strengthening the Three-Axis system and developing new weapon systems that can effectively counter North Korea's nuclear capabilities.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, Deterrence, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- Asia, North Korea, and United States of America
11. North Korea’s Space Development: The Gap Between Ideal and Reality
- Author:
- Cheol-wun Jang
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Cheol-wun Jang, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification, emphasizes that while North Korea has made significant strides in long-range ballistic missiles, it has not been successful in the area of artificial satellites. Up until now, Pyongyang has had limited engagement in exchanges with major advanced countries involved in space development. Dr. Jang predicts that North Korea is expected to continue its independent pursuit of space development, which will hinder the country’s progress in the satellite sector in the near future.
- Topic:
- Development, Nuclear Weapons, Space, Kim Jong-un, and Militarization
- Political Geography:
- Asia and North Korea
12. The South Korea-U.S. Summit and Measures to Enhance Bilateral Cooperation on North Korea
- Author:
- Jechun Kim
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Jechun Kim, a professor at Sogang University, points out that the Biden administration appears to prioritize competition with China, the Taiwan issue, and the Ukraine War, despite the growing threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities. In response, Kim underlines the importance of issuing a “2023 US-ROK Joint Statement on North Korea” after President Yoon’s visit to the White House. Given the fading interest and support for the reunification of the Korean Peninsula, Professor Kim emphasizes the significance of addressing the rapid advancement in DPRK’s nuclear capabilities. He then suggests that South Korea needs to create a conducive environment for peaceful reunification through strong support from the U.S. for the “Audacious Initiative.”
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, Bilateral Relations, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
13. Pyongyang in Search of a New Cold War Strategy
- Author:
- Jihwan Hwang
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Jihwan Hwang, a professor at the University of Seoul, predicts that the strengthening alliance between North Korea, China, and Russia could enable North Korea to overcome its international isolation, weakening the influence of the US-South Korea alliance and increasing China’s leverage over the Korean Peninsula. Dr. Hwang points out that even without the establishment of a new Cold War order, the strengthened cooperation among the authoritarian regimes will pose a significant strategic challenge to South Korea. As Seoul’s approach to Pyongyang has been based on a unipolar system led by Washington, Dr. Hwang highlights the need for South Korea to explore new approaches to address the changing security environment.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Ukraine, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
14. Japan’s Stance on North Korea’s “New Cold War” Narrative: Strengthening Japan’s Defense and Global Normative Power
- Author:
- Seunghee Oh
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Seunghee Oh, a research professor at Seoul National University Institute of Japanese Studies, suggests that Pyongyang perceives the current global order as a “new Cold War” and views strengthening trilateral cooperation among Seoul, Washington, and Tokyo as hostile to its national interest. In response to North Korea’s moves, Japan prioritizes multilateral initiatives to strengthen its security ties with other partners in the region and the globe. Dr. Oh further claims that as Tokyo assumes the presidency of the G7 Hiroshima Summit this year and has been elected as a non-permanent member of the 2023-24 UN Security Council, Japan is well-positioned to criticize North Korea as an international norm violator and proactively address the North Korean problem and utilize it to enhance its global leadership.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Cold War, International Cooperation, Multilateralism, and Kim Jong-un
- Political Geography:
- Japan, Asia, and North Korea
15. U.S. Stance on North Korea’s “New Cold War” Narrative
- Author:
- Hyun-wook Kim
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Hyun-wook Kim, Professor at Korean National Diplomatic Academy, assesses that North Korea is advocating a new Cold War discourse to strengthen its strategic solidarity with China. However, the intensified Cold War dynamic would lead the United States to prioritize its strategic competition with China, and the Biden administration should turn to a more passive approach toward North Korea. In this context, Dr. Kim anticipates that Washington would not offer incentives to Pyongyang for engaging in dialogue, which would lead Pyongyang to continue its military provocations to influence the direction of Washington’s policy course and gain recognition as a nuclear power. Given the volatility of the situation, Dr. Kim emphasizes the importance of reaffirming the ROK-US military alliance to counter the escalating crisis on the Korean Peninsula.
- Topic:
- Cold War, International Cooperation, Deterrence, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America
16. North Korea’s Outlook on the New Cold War
- Author:
- Won Gon Park
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Won Gon Park, Chair of the EAI Center for North Korean Studies (Professor at Ewha Womans University), argues that North Korea utilizes its “new Cold War” rhetoric for two objectives: 1) to criticize US military buildup and its DPRK policy, and 2) to enhance the legitimacy of its possession of nuclear weapons by exploiting the geopolitical competition. Further, he claims that North Korea characterizes the Cold War as a clash between liberalism and authoritarianism in an effort to appeal to and garner support from China and Russia. However, Dr. Park assesses that while North Korea, Russia, and China may temporarily cooperate against the US as their common enemy, the nature of their “political marriage of convenience” complicates the likelihood of a sustained alliance. Finally, Dr. Park predicts that the new Cold War system that Pyongyang envisions is unlikely to come to fruition.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Alliance, Kim Jong-un, and Multipolarity
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
17. Will Spring Ever Come? Security Landscape of Northeast Asia in 2023
- Author:
- Kyung-joo Jeon
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Kyung-Joo Jeon, a research fellow at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses, predicts that the Korean peninsula might repeat the days of fire and fury in 2017 this year. North Korea will likely turn to its military provocation tactics ahead of the ROK-US Freedom Shield Exercises in mid-March, DPRK’s 70th Anniversary of The Day of Victory in the Great Fatherland Liberation War in July, and another ROK-US joint military drill in August. Dr. Jeon suggests that Seoul should increase its strategic value as an essential global player while Washington seeks a stronger alliance network in the Indo-Pacific region if South Korea wants to live up to its policy goal of the “Global Pivotal State.”
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Deterrence, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, and Asia
18. China’s Stance on North Korea’s “New Cold War” Narrative
- Author:
- Dong Ryul Lee
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Dong Ryul Lee, Chair of the China Research Center at EAI (Professor at Dongduk Women’s University), highlights that although China and North Korea might seem to have a close relationship, Beijing maintains a reserved stance regarding the North’s perspective on its strategic value amid the US-China competition. Professor Lee explains that Xi Jinping prioritizes political stability by boosting the economy and tries to avoid a full-scale confrontation with the US. Accordingly, China seeks to manage the risk spurred on by Pyongyang’s military provocations, given that they legitimize stronger US-Japan-ROK trilateral security cooperation.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Cold War, Xi Jinping, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
19. Re-Declared “Frontal Breakthrough”: North Korea’s Nuclear First Line in 2023 and Its Limitations
- Author:
- Walter G. Park
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- East Asia Institute (EAI)
- Abstract:
- Won Gon Park, Chair of the EAI Center for North Korean Studies (Professor at Ewha Womans University) stresses that North Korea's persistence to pursue its nuclear-first line will lead Pyongyang to a severe crisis as the line would cripple its economy while boosting the U.S. efforts to establish enhanced alliance security cooperation based on the concept of "integrated deterrence." Dr. Park suggests that the South Korean government establishes measures to assist North Korea's transition to an "economy first" state and to prepare an innovative measure that could guarantee the survival of the regime while not jeopardizing the national security of South Korea.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Security, Nuclear Weapons, and Denuclearization
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and North Korea
20. China Is Finally Making Progress on the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan Railway
- Author:
- Niva Yau
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Foreign Policy Research Institute
- Abstract:
- Since the 1990s, China has tried to build the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway. The railway would advance China’s geopolitical and economic interests in Central Asia. Until recently, China has been unable to overcome opposition to the project in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. However, local concerns about the railway may be giving way since Russia’s war in Ukraine has made new trade routes bypassing Russia more profitable, and a new Uzbek government is looking to expand regional and international engagement.
- Topic:
- Economics, Infrastructure, Geopolitics, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- China, Central Asia, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan