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32. Surface Tension: ‘Communal’ Violence and Elite Ambitions in South Sudan
- Author:
- Dan Watson
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- This report examines recent developments in South Sudan. The country has been experiencing a surge in ‘communal’ violence in the wake of a peace agreement signed in 2018, as the oil economy that has underpinned South Sudanese elite politics for over 15 years begins to disintegrate. This analysis re-interprets ‘communal’ violence in South Sudan, situating conflicts organized around ethnic or sub-ethnic lines in relation to national-level conflicts and inter-elite rivalries. These conflicts and elite dynamics are changing in response to the decarbonization of South Sudan, which is pushing elite ambitions away from the capital and back into provincial areas.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Treaties and Agreements, Violence, and Elites
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
33. Appetite for Destruction: The Military Counter-Revolution in Sudan
- Author:
- Dan Watson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- The military coup d’état in Sudan on 25 October 2021 sent shockwaves across the region and through diplomatic circuits. Following the arrest of the civilian Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and several prominent senior officials from the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), demonstrators took to the streets across Khartoum. They were confronted by soldiers from the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitaries in the capital, with reports emerging of Central Reserve Police paramilitaries also being deployed (Human Rights Watch, 29 October 2021). Over 10 people have reportedly been killed by state forces thus far and over 160 wounded (Radio Dabanga, 29 October 2021; UN OCHA, 28 October 2021), with at least some victims uninvolved in the demonstrations (Eye Radio, 27 October 2021). Demonstrations have since spread across much of Sudan.
- Topic:
- Violence, Coup, Counterrevolution, Demonstrations, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
34. A Turbulent Run-up to Elections in Somalia
- Author:
- Andrea Carboni and Mohamed Daud
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- Somalia’s parliamentary and presidential elections are set to take place amidst a general climate of political tensions and violence. A constitutional crisis stoked by months of political deadlock between President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed ‘Farmaajo’ and the opposition threatens to escalate into a violent conflict pitting federal forces against state-based militias, as well as armed clans with competing loyalties. Across the country, signs of increasing unrest have surfaced in Somalia’s federal states of Jubaland, Galmudug, and Hirshabelle, exposing the risk of a violent turn in Somalia’s political crisis.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
35. Red Lines: Upheaval and Containment in the Horn of Africa
- Author:
- Dan Watson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- This is the final part in a series of three analysis features covering unrest in Sudan. The first in the series — Riders on the Storm — explored the dynamics and agendas which resulted in the Juba Peace Agreement. The second — Danse Macabre — examined the origins of the uprising in Sudan and its trajectory following the coup of April 2019. This final analysis situates Sudan’s current upheaval in the context of the Horn of Africa, and extends the scope of analysis to encompass conflict in Ethiopia and the region.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Conflict, Coup, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and Horn of Africa
36. Lessons from the #EndSARS Movement in Nigeria
- Author:
- Olajumoke (Jumo) Ayandele
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
- Abstract:
- On 3 October 2020, in Nigeria, operatives of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) allegedly shot a young man at Wetland Hotel in Ughelli, injuring him. This incident was filmed and went viral, sparking an outcry on social media against SARS using the hashtag #EndSARS. By 8 October, demonstrations associated with this hashtag had begun to increase in size and number throughout Nigeria, peaking at 26 demonstration events on 13 October (see figure below). On 20 October, Nigerian military forces fired live ammunition at #EndSARS demonstrators in Lagos who had sat down in the road to peacefully protest against police brutality, reportedly killing at least 15. Young Nigerians are still reeling from the shock and after effects of the government’s heavy-handed response. Military officials have rejected claims that they killed unarmed protesters, alleging that soldiers had only fired blank bullets (BBC, 15 November 2020). The reaction has widened the distrust between young Nigerians and the government. This analysis identifies three lessons from the #EndSARS movement and highlights what the government’s response means for Nigeria’s fragile political stability and security.
- Topic:
- Security, Social Movement, Political stability, Protests, and Civil Unrest
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
37. Transformation through Inclusive Growth: Achieving a Balanced Recovery
- Author:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis & Research (ZIPAR)
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- The Zambian National Budget for the year 2022 was announced by the Minister of Finance on 29th October 2021. This marked the first Budget of the newly elected United Party for National Development Government following the August 12, 2021 national election. As such, this represented the first formal statement of the new Government’s economic policy. While the Budget contains many transformative ideas, it is important to zoom in on the areas where caution is imperative and what those specific details means for the people the Budget is meant to serve, and for the whole economy. This paper therefore analyses the 2022 National Budget under the theme: ‘Transformation through Inclusive Growth: Achieving a Balanced Recovery’. The paper present insights into the key fiscal and macroeconomic priorities, debt management and international financing relations, the real sector policy options to stimulate the balanced and green recovery of the economy and taking development closer to the people. The paper also gives pointers for strengthening the governance environment for effective budget execution and for sidestepping the perils of the ambitious decentralisation programme.
- Topic:
- Governance, Budget, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Revenue Management
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
38. A Review of the Performance of the 2021 First Semester Budget
- Author:
- Mbewe Kalikeka
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Zambia Institute for Policy Analysis and Research (ZIPAR)
- Abstract:
- Zambia’s 2021 National Budget is being executed under the theme, “Stimulate Economic Recovery and Build Resilience to Safeguard Livelihoods and Protect the Vulnerable.” During the budget planning process the COVID-19 pandemic took a heavy toll on economic activity that led the economy to contract by 3% in 2020. This is on the back of the economy having already being vulnerable to external shocks due to its structural weaknesses. Therefore, in line with aspirations to stimulate economic recovery, the 2021 National Budget set the growth target at 1.8%, underscoring a strong desire to crutch the economy to its recovery.
- Topic:
- Budget, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, COVID-19, and Economic Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Zambia
39. The Battle for Libya: The UAE Calls the Shots
- Author:
- James M Dorsey
- Publication Date:
- 01-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
- Abstract:
- Last week’s inauguration of a new Egyptian military base on the Red Sea was heavy with the symbolism of the rivalries shaping the future of the Middle East as well as north and east Africa.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Middle East, Libya, United Arab Emirates, and Red Sea
40. THE BIG LESSON OF PEACEKEEPING IN SUDAN: BEWARE OF HOST-COUNTRY OBSTRUCTION
- Author:
- Allard Duursma
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Political Violence @ A Glance
- Abstract:
- Every student that takes a class on United Nations (UN) peace operations will be told on day one that, along with impartiality and the non-use of force (except in self-defense and defense of the mandate), the consent of the conflict parties is one of the three fundamental principles of UN peacekeeping. But students will soon realize that the principle of consent is just that—a principle. Which is often compromised. Host-state consent was compromised during the deployment of UN peacekeepers in the Ivory Coast when Laurent Gbagbo was in power. UN peacekeepers in South Sudan also face the challenge of compromised host-state consent. Peacekeepers in the Democratic Republic of Congo have occasionally also been confronted by government actors trying to undermine their work. The withdrawal of host-state consent has even led to the termination of peacekeeping operations in Chad, Burundi, and Eritrea/Ethiopia.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, United Nations, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, South Sudan, and Ivory Coast