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  • Author: Makysm Bielawski
  • Publication Date: 01-2021
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: We are witnessing how the authoritarian states of the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China are trying to destroy the unity of democratic Europe by means of economic expansion. Therefore, the infrastructure projects are used for this purpose. Consequently, it is appropriate to equate “Nord Stream-2” and "Belt and Road Initiative". If the projects are implemented, the EU security will be unbalanced; as a result, it will affect the interests of the USA. The American government, regardless the party affiliation, is aware of such challenges. Therefore, obviously, after the inauguration of the new President of the United States, the containment policy of JSC “Gazprom” will only enhance. This will be facilitated by the position of Joseph Biden, which he has voiced on several occasions since 2015 during negotiations with the EU leadership and which is generally described as “unprofitable agreement”.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Economics, Natural Resources, European Union, Gas
  • Political Geography: Russia, China, Ukraine
  • Author: Makysm Bielawski
  • Publication Date: 01-2021
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: Starting from August 2020, each gas supplier individually sets the gas price for residential consumers, whereas the latter were given the opportunity to choose the company with the most favorable offer. This was called the "opening of the gas market".
  • Topic: Markets, Gas, Liberalization
  • Political Geography: Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Makysm Bielawski
  • Publication Date: 03-2021
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: Maksym Bielawsky, the leading expert of energy programs at the Razumkov Center, provided answers to the TOP-12 questions about current model of Ukraine’s natural gas market.
  • Topic: Markets, Gas, Tariffs
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Makysm Bielawski
  • Publication Date: 03-2021
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: Ukraine's economy and energy system urges serious and comprehensive energy cost reduction solutions to improve the resilience of the economy and to favor strategic convergence with the European Union, strengthen the participation as a Contracting Party in the Energy Community as well as ensure full implementation of the EU-Ukraine Association Agreement.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Hydrogen
  • Political Geography: Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Vasyl Yurchyshyn
  • Publication Date: 04-2021
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: The net outflow of almost $870 million of direct foreign investments from Ukraine, as reported by the National Bank of Ukraine, is annoying news, however, it did not surprise anyone. Clearly, this is partly due to the Coronavirus crisis. But even in the pre-crisis period, direct investment in the world economy was very cautious. Specifically, investment volumes also decreased in 2018−2019, with average annual decrease by 10%, while the 42% collapse in global flows in the pandemic year of 2020 came as no surprise. It is also “natural” that the outflows occur from emerging or weakened economies to the so-called safe havens — developed countries with strong capital.
  • Topic: Investment, COVID-19, Capital
  • Political Geography: Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Mykola Sunhurovskyi
  • Publication Date: 04-2021
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: This question arises after reviewing numerous comments by domestic and foreign experts on Russia amassing its troops near the border with Ukraine. Most assessments in different variations boil down to the statement that this is nothing but the Kremlin’s informational and psychological operation (bluff) to step up pressure on Ukraine and its Western partners for them to cede down.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Territorial Disputes, Conflict
  • Political Geography: Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Oleksiy Melnyk
  • Publication Date: 04-2021
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: The current reaction of the West to provocative threats by Russia is both prompt and concrete, but for political statements to reach the desired effect, they must be supplemented by substantial practical steps.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Politics, Deterrence
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Volodymyr Omelchenko
  • Publication Date: 04-2021
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: Achieving climate goals is the economic policy priority. In fact, Ukrainian Green Deal is the best economic tool for Ukraine’s gradual entry into a single European political and economic space and its achievement of sustainable development goals, as defined by the UN resolution of 25 September 2015.
  • Topic: Climate Change, Sustainable Development Goals, Economic Policy
  • Political Geography: Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Vasyl Yurchyshyn
  • Publication Date: 04-2021
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: Last week was marked by two events that are likely to have a negative impact on the banking system. The first concerns the adoption of the Law on Restructuring of Foreign Currency Consumer Loans. From the first glance, this event seemed to be highly welcomed, as it would lead to easing of debt pressure for many households. However, this is only one side of the coin. Indeed, first, in the banking sector this situation may mean the formation of imbalances that will need to be normalised. Secondly, and more importantly, there is reason to believe that the decision to restructure was actually made not for economic but for political and populist reasons.
  • Topic: Law, Currency, Banking
  • Political Geography: Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Svitlana Chekunova
  • Publication Date: 07-2020
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: Passing the Law consolidating agreements between the Government and "green" investors is one of the steps towards stabilizing the renewable energy sector in Ukraine. Global deepening of the crisis in the energy markets encourages countries to implement economic recovery programs, take stimulating measures to support the energy sector, in particular, renewable energy producers. In the crisis, the RES sector is almost the only one that has shown growth, as indicates the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its reportafor May 2020. It has also predicted the resilience of the RES sector to market fluctuations in 2021. Utilizing the competitive advantages of renewable energy underpins economic development and job creation, as well as the reduction of harmful emissions and the introduction of innovative technologies.
  • Topic: Development, Energy Policy, Government, Law
  • Political Geography: Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Victor Logatskiy
  • Publication Date: 09-2020
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: The assessment of changes in gas prices by major market segments of Ukrainian gas market over the past year, compared with import prices, showed the approximation of wholesale gas prices in regulated and unregulated market segments, as well as gas supply prices for imports. This not only means that the unification of rules made the Ukrainian market interesting and open for imported gas, but also confirms that the wholesale market, thanks to foreign supplies, has achieved better competition between gas suppliers for industrial consumers. Therefore, import parity has already become the main driver for setting the market price in all segments, including the regulated market (diagram).
  • Topic: Markets, Gas, Economy
  • Political Geography: Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Makysm Bielawski
  • Publication Date: 12-2020
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: The beginning of the operation of the pipeline Nord Stream-1 at the end of 2012 became a powerful driving force for the disrupting of the strategic balance in Europe. This project has weakened the constraining mechanisms of dependence of the Russian transit on the Ukrainian gas transportation system and has tied the essential part of the European elites with the interests of the Kremlin by the economics chains. It laid the stable foundation for Russia to provoke the war against Ukraine at the beginning of 2014. The aim of the project Nord Stream-2 lies in even greater balance disrupting of the forces in Europe and exacerbation of the discord inside NATO.
  • Topic: Military Affairs, Gas, Submarines
  • Political Geography: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Vasyl Yurchyshyn
  • Publication Date: 12-2020
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: From the very beginning of its deployment, the crisis caused a significant ("synchronised") economic shock. The first measures to restrict the movement of people (both within the country and between countries due to the actual closure of borders), transport (including freight), closure of offices and businesses (followed with the loss of jobs) meant a sharp reduction in aggregate supply. The shock of supply immediately turned out to be a shock of demand, because the loss of work and "locking" people at home meant the loss of income, readiness for consumption, and purchasing power. The loss of employment in a very limited time affected significant and broad sections of the population, since the crisis immediately and simultaneously addressed and negatively affected almost all spheres of human activity.
  • Topic: Economy, Crisis Management, COVID-19
  • Political Geography: Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Makysm Bielawski
  • Publication Date: 12-2020
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: Stalin proposed to use energy resources in order to solve geopolitical problems, leveling the needs of the state, immediately after the end of World War II. Hegemony above everything. For the first time such political tools of influence was tested in 1948, despite the acute shortage in domestic market, through supplying the oil and oil products to Finland and Bulgaria. Along with energy supplies, Finland made concessions to the Soviet Union and undertook to renounce NATO membership and remain a de jure non-aligned state.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, History
  • Political Geography: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Kateryna Markevych
  • Publication Date: 01-2019
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: The lack of national capital and the need for restructuring of companies on the one hand, and the need to reduce the technological gap on the other raise the issue of attracting foreign investments in Ukraine.
  • Topic: Foreign Direct Investment, Business , Investment, Capital
  • Political Geography: Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Volodymyr Omelchenko
  • Publication Date: 01-2019
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: One year has passed since the Government of Ukraine adopted the national energy strategy. For readers’ convenience, the vision is structured by the following criteria: resources, infrastructure, markets and investments.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Markets, Natural Resources, Infrastructure, Investment
  • Political Geography: Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Author: James Sherr
  • Publication Date: 10-2019
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: In his inaugural address on 20 May, Ukraine’s newly elected president, Volodymyr Zelensky, stated, ‘we are not the ones who started the war, but we will have to finish it’. Two months after his inauguration, it is clear that he means it. One notes in passing that on 26 May 2014, one day after his own election, Petro Poroshenko stated that the then Anti-Terrorist Operation (ATO) should end ‘within hours, not months’. Yet he meant that it would end with the defeat of the aggressor. The current president appears to mean something else.
  • Topic: War, Elections, Domestic Policy
  • Political Geography: Ukraine
  • Author: Yuri Yakymenko
  • Publication Date: 12-2019
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: Summary of Analytical report of the Razumkov Centre, prepared for the project “Coalition Agreement for the new Ukrainian Parliament”, jointly implemented by the Razumkov Centre and Ukrainian Office of Konrad Adenauer Foundation
  • Topic: Elections, Domestic Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe, Ukraine
  • Publication Date: 04-2018
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: Judging from President’s latest statements on his readiness to capture Ukraine’s stable progress towards EU and NATO membership in the Preamble to the Constitution, we are to expect yet another session of “constitutional vivisection”. Moreover, it is very likely that the parliament and the president will finalise the long-term story of bidding farewell to the constitutional guarantees of parliamentary immunity. Also, one cannot write off a possible attempt to implement the currently semi-fictional idea of transitioning to a parliamentary form of government, again – by introducing corresponding amendments to the Constitution.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Publication Date: 03-2018
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: In February of this year, Stanislav Shevchuk was elected the new Chairman of the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU) at one of its sessions. Position of CCU Chairman has been vacant since 20 March 2017. This is when Yurii Baulin’s term has run out. On several occasions, elections of a new chairman were disrupted. In December 2017, they did not take place due to the lack of candidates. The responsibility of CCU Chairman, besides swearing in the newly elected president, is to organise the regular work of the Constitutional Court. We also expect the pressure on the new chairman to mount after the appointment of two new CCU judges on the president’s quota and the election of two more judges on the Verkhovna Rada’s quota.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Publication Date: 02-2018
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: On 30 January 2018, in Kyiv, Razumkov Centre together with the Institute for Economic Research and Policy Consulting and CEDOS think tank presented the annual 2017 global top think tanks rating (2017 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report). This report is issued since 2008 by the Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program of the Lauder Institute, University of Pennsylvania (USA).
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Publication Date: 12-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: The next presidential election in Ukraine is set for 31 March 2019. The parliamentary election to the 9th Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine will take place on 27 October 2019. According to the latest survey conducted in October 2017, the following parties would be elected to the Parliament: «Petro Poroshenko Bloc «Solidarity» (13.6%), «Batkivshchyna» (10%), «Civic Position» party (8.9%), «Opposition Bloc» party (8.6%), «For Life» party (6.8%), the Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko (6.5%), «Self Help» Union (5.9%). Others would not be able to cross the 5% threshold.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Publication Date: 11-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: Before the bill “On the peculiarities of state policy on the restoration of Ukraine’s state sovereignty over the temporarily occupied territories of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts” is adopted, it needs some additional work.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Publication Date: 10-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: ANTI-CORRUPTION COURT: TO EXECUTE IMPOSSIBLE TO PARDON determined by the level of people’s awareness, candidates’ hidden motives. Society must ask questions: who is the candidate, what does he seek, does he represent a particular person, or is he an independent law-maker? We have to ask ourselves as well. Because after the election campaign of 2014, many new deputies emerged, but they did not turn out to be who they positioned themselves as. The issue of the quality of parliamentarism is a deep one, it cannot be associated with a certain law, – it is connected with political culture that needs to be developed. Full text Kharkiv oblast, and Svatove in Luhansk oblast in 2015. This year, attention of the entire country was drawn to the fires in Balaklia, Kharkiv oblast in late March, and now – the one not far from Kalynivka, Vinnytsia oblast. situation, where the corruption search campaign across all levels of the government triad has brought Ukraine to the top of corrupt states list, and the judiciary is consistently and deliberately deprived of the lion’s share of public trust, the creation of a specialised anti-corruption court will bring the fight against corruption into a practical stage. Full text The court system is largely disoriented and demoralised. It is hard to predict the results of its next modernisation in the sense of its ability to bring all of its segments together to properly administer fair justice. Today, the expert and political community is awaiting the «finalising» of assembly of the new Supreme Court and the determination of prospects for creating the anti-corruption court, especially, methods and ways this issue is to be solved.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Publication Date: 07-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: In Ukraine, every President that comes to power aspires to change the Constitution of Ukraine, however, even this Constitution has hardly ever been abided by in the 20 years. Our civil society is still underdeveloped. We still experience only occasional surges – one Maidan, then another one, where the civil society shows itself. We still have not reached the point where civil society controls the government.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Publication Date: 06-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: The inability of the Constitutional Court to choose the new Chairman of theCCU in a closed meeting held recently is just the outside sign of existing problems accumulated inside and around this important state institution.
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Publication Date: 05-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: The Constitutional Commission created in early March 2015 by President Petro Poroshenko’s Decree has hardly stopped it work, as new rumours of yet another Constitutional change have started spreading inside Ukrainian information space and political environment. Citizens cannot make up their mind about the necessity of amending the Basic Law, as they are not aware of their fundamental constitutional rights. Razumkov Centre’s survey results in 2015 show that only 10% of Ukrainians are familiar with the text of the Constitution, while 40% – have never laid eyes on the Basic Law
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus
  • Publication Date: 03-2017
  • Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
  • Institution: Razumkov Centre
  • Abstract: National Security and Defence Council decision to stop the movement of goods across the line of demarcation and transport connection with ORDLO is a mechanism of bringing down the intensity of tension in the society, which developed due to the blockade of railway tracks in Donbas
  • Topic: International Affairs
  • Political Geography: Global Focus