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2. The Impacts of the New Coronavirus Pandemic on the Global Economy: A Nontechnical Summary
- Author:
- Kensuke Yanagida
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- As of April 5, 2020, there are 177 countries/regions confirming cases of new coronavirus infections (COVID-19), making this an unprecedented pandemic. With the number of infected people increasing and medical systems under severe pressure, measures such as lockdowns and border restrictions have been tightly imposed in most countries/regions. As a result, economic activities in both production and consumption have been temporarily halted. Indeed, the pandemic is creating a situation that is simultaneously freezing the global economy. Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), said that the impact of the Corona Shock on the global economy could be "far worse" than that of the 2008-2009 global financial crisis (also known as the Lehman Shock). How much impact will the unprecedented pandemic have on the global economy? In this paper, the author will quantitatively analyze the impact of the Corona Shock using an applied general equilibrium model (Computable General Equilibrium (CGE)). The estimation results show that the longer the COVID-19 outbreak continues and the greater the spread of infections, the greater the negative impact on the global economy. The impact is forecast to be at or even above the level of the Lehman Shock.
- Topic:
- Economy, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
3. Coronavirus Crisis Accelerating Reconsideration of Supply Chains
- Author:
- Yoshiaki Takayama
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Japan Institute Of International Affairs (JIIA)
- Abstract:
- Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, international interdependence is changing. The current international political situation, characterized by harsh power politics, and the current state of the international economy, in which states with different values are economically connected, are leading to reconsideration of international supply chains. Understanding international supply chains is extremely important in looking at the prospects for the global political economy. The purpose of this comment is to explore the trends and implications of reconsidering supply chains.
- Topic:
- Politics, Global Political Economy, COVID-19, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus