You searched for: Content Type Commentary and Analysis Remove constraint Content Type: Commentary and Analysis Publishing Institution Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) Remove constraint Publishing Institution: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI) Political Geography Global Focus Remove constraint Political Geography: Global Focus Publication Year within 10 Years Remove constraint Publication Year: within 10 Years Topic Health Remove constraint Topic: Health
- Author: Matteo Villa, James F. Myers, Federico Turkheimer
- Publication Date: 05-2020
- Content Type: Commentary and Analysis
- Institution: Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI)
- Abstract: In an ongoing epidemic, the case fatality rate is not a reliable estimate of a disease’s severity. This is particularly so when a large share of asymptomatic or pauci-symptomatic patients escape testing, or when overwhelmed healthcare systems are forced to limit testing further to severe cases only. By leveraging data on COVID-19, we propose a novel way to estimate a disease’s infected fatality rate, the true lethality of the disease, in the presence of sparse and partial information. We show that this is feasible when the disease has turned into a pandemic and data comes from a large number of countries, or regions within countries, as long as testing strategies vary sufficiently. For Italy, our method estimates an IFR of 1.1% (95% CI: 0.2% – 2.1%), which is strongly in line with other methods. At the global level, our method estimates an IFR of 1.6% (95% CI: 1.1% – 2.1%). This method also allows us to show that the IFR varies according to each country’s age structure and healthcare capacity.
- Topic: Health, Pandemic, Data, COVID-19
- Political Geography: Europe, Italy, Global Focus