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Begin New Search Topic Elections Content Type Commentary and Analysis Publishing Institution Istituto Affari Internazionali Publication Year within 5 Years

1. The Perfect Storm: Trump and USA 2024

Author:
Riccardo Alcaro
Publication Date:
01-2024
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Donald Trump casts a long shadow over the upcoming presidential – and congressional – elections in the United States. It is a menacing shadow, not only for what the former president could do if he returned to office but also because the political and institutional balances of the United States are threatened by the repercussions of his many legal troubles, the latest of which could even see him excluded from the race for the White House.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Donald Trump
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

2. Lula’s Victory, the New Left and the Future of Latin America

Author:
Rafael Ramírez
Publication Date:
11-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
The election of Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva as the new president of Brazil, consolidates the advancement of a New Left in Latin America: a progressive movement, with strong popular and democratic content, promoting an agenda where the fight against poverty, inequality, climate change and respect for human rights is key.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Elections, Leftist Politics, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:
Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Venezuela

3. Italy’s Election and the Rise of Hard Right Conservativism

Author:
Andrea Dessì and Vassilis Ntousas
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Should the polling prove accurate, Italy will soon be governed by its most radical right-wing government since World War II. Come 25 September, a coalition of political parties – dominated by the hard-right and anti-migrant Brothers of Italy party (Fratelli d’Italia – FdI) and Matteo Salvini’s League (Lega) – appears poised to secure a clear, if not resounding, majority in parliament. This will return Italy to a right-wing government, the first since Silvio Berlusconi’s centre-right coalition collapsed amidst the risk of Italian bankruptcy back in 2011. Despite its neo-fascist roots, heading the polls with about 25 per cent of the vote is Giorgia Meloni’s FdI, the frontrunner to become the country’s first female premier and first far-right head of government in Italy’s Republican history.[1] Salvini’s League and Silvio Berlusconi’s Go Italy (Forza Italia) party are the other major members of the right-wing coalition, whose impact if elected will reverberate far beyond Italy. For Europe, the polls are another indication of the spread of hard-right conservativism, following the French National Front’s electoral gains over the past few years and the recent victory by the Sweden Democrats this September.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, Far Right, Political Parties, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

4. Italy’s Far-Right and the Migration Debate: Implications for Europe

Author:
Julian M. Campisi and Cecilia Emma Sottilotta
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Following the collapse of Mario Draghi’s national unity government in July, Italy is set to elect a new parliament on 25 September 2022, the first general election since 2018. Grappling with a myriad of socio-economic and energy challenges, the next government will face significant hardship in turning the tide, with Italy widely expected to be governed by a right-wing conservative government at a time when all indications point to Italy moving into recession in 2023. A conservative coalition of far- and centre-right parties, led by Brothers of Italy (Fratelli d’Italia – FdI), the League (Lega) and Go Italy (Forza Italia) party, is expected to win a significant majority of seats in parliament. While Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing inflation and energy crisis have dominated the electoral campaign, other issues should not be overlooked, not least in light of their impact on domestic politics as well as broader Italy–EU relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Migration, Elections, Far Right, Political Parties, and Domestic Policy
Political Geography:
Europe and Italy

5. Lebanon’s Perennial Limbo: A Paralysed System Teetering on the Brink

Author:
Giulia Gozzini
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
Against the backdrop of a catastrophic and seemingly endless downward spiral that began in 2019, a paralysing political stalemate has once again gripped Lebanon. Close to three months have passed since the Lebanese were called to the polls on 15 May, the first parliamentary elections held since the October 2019 revolution (thawra) and the 2020 Beirut blast. Yet, nothing seems to have changed. While the results did not bring about a significant political breakthrough, they did break the monopoly of traditional parties, with the election of 13 independent candidates associated with the popular protests of 2019.[1] This is a noticeable occurrence given that it was produced by a system which is tailor-made for the political élite to maintain the status quo. That said, the vote can hardly qualify as a victory of the so-called “forces of change”. Likewise, it would be unwise to claim – as many in the media did in the aftermath of the vote – that the results represent a defeat for the Shia Islamist party, Hezbollah.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East and Lebanon

6. The Future of the European Union: Scenarios for the Start of the New Legislature

Author:
Ferdinando Nelli Feroci
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:
A few months after the European Parliament elections, and a few weeks before a new European Commission is fully operational, the European Union is facing old and new challenges, both domestic and international. Internally, the EU will soon be testing these new institutions. In the recently elected European Parliament, nationalist and Eurosceptic political forces are a minority, but pro-European mainstream parties, which have the numbers to control the proceedings of the Parliament, have not been able to consolidate a stable and comfortable majority. The new European Commission has encountered setbacks in the confirmation procedure of three of its members and will therefore fully assume its responsibilities with some delay on 1 December.
Topic:
Government, Nationalism, Politics, Elections, and Transatlantic Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, United States of America, and European Union