Content Type: Commentary and Analysis / Publishing Institution: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) / Publication Year: within 25 Years and within 5 Years

1. War in Ukraine: One Year On, Nowhere Safe

Author:: Nichita Gurcov
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, ACLED records nearly 40,000 political violence events across the country. Three-quarters of these events are shelling, artillery, and missile strikes mostly affecting the northeastern, eastern, and southern regions of Ukraine. Quantifying the civilian toll of the conflict presents a challenge – especially in areas continuously engulfed by violence, like eastern Ukraine. In areas under Russian occupation, reports of abductions, forced disappearances, torture, and extrajudicial executions have been widespread, though the scale of violence against civilians becomes known only upon the liberation of territories, evidenced in the case of northern Ukraine and especially the Kyiv suburbs. Meanwhile, long-range strikes, including those deliberately targeting civilian infrastructure, pose a permanent threat and continue to induce extreme hardship for communities even farther afield from the frontline.
Topic:: War Crimes, Conflict, Civilians, Russia-Ukraine War, and Threat Assessment
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2. Political Repression in Cuba Ahead of the 2023 Parliamentary Elections

Author:: Sandra Pellegrini and Ana Marco
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 26 March 2023, voters will elect 470 deputies to Cuba’s National Assembly of People’s Power, who, in addition to fulfilling legislative functions during their five-year term, will be nominating Cuba’s next head of state. The government has characterized Cuba’s political system as a grassroots democracy, where candidacies to the parliament largely emerge from municipal authorities and are approved by the National Candidate Commission, a body composed of social organizations, such as labor unions and student associations.1 In practice, however, Cuba’s electoral process has been criticized for blocking the opposition’s access to power. Notably, the Council for Democratic Transition in Cuba, a platform created by opposition members to promote pluralism, freedom, and human rights, has called voters to boycott the upcoming elections after pro-government supporters reportedly prevented several opposition candidates from running in the November 2022 municipal elections.2
Topic:: Elections, Domestic Politics, Repression, and Parliament
Political Geography:: Cuba, Latin America, and Caribbean

3. Actor Profile: The March 23 Movement (M23)

Author:: Ladd Serwat
Publication Date:: 03-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The March 23 Movement (M23) — Mouvement du 23 Mars in French — is an armed group operating in Nord Kivu province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), with alleged backing from the Rwandan government. The roots of the M23 go back to the disrupted integration process of Rwandophone militants following the Congo Wars, splitting those willing to return to Rwanda and others desiring to stay in DRC.1 Many fighters remained in Nord Kivu province to form the National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP) under the leadership of a former Rwandan Patriotic Front (RPF) militant, Laurent Nkunda. A precursor to the M23, the CNDP claimed to protect Congolese Tutsi and received Rwandan support.2 The M23’s name comes from the failed negotiation process between the CNDP and the Congolese government on 23 March 2009.3
Topic:: Political Violence, Non State Actors, and Armed Forces
Political Geography:: Africa and Democratic Republic of Congo

4. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Sustained Resurgence in Yemen or Signs of Further Decline?

Author:: Emile Roy
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In the first two months of 2023, suspected United States drone strikes killed two senior leaders of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) in Yemen’s Marib governorate. One of the group’s top explosives experts, a Yemeni citizen named Husayn Hadbul (also known as Hassan al-Hadrami), was killed on 30 January. The group’s media chief and leader of the group’s Shura Council, Saudi citizen Hamad al-Tamimi (also known as Abu Abd al-Aziz al-Adnani), was killed on 26 February. These strikes on high-profile AQAP leaders took place amid a resurgence of AQAP activity in Yemen, which started during the United Nations-mediated truce between Houthi and anti-Houthi forces that lasted from April to the beginning of October 2022, and that has informally held to this date.1 The lull in fighting between Houthi and anti-Houthi forces induced by the truce allowed for a broader political and military reconfiguration within the anti-Houthi camp. At the political level, former President Abdrabbuh Mansur Hadi was replaced by an eight-member Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) to enhance coordination among anti-Houthi forces. Armed militias affiliated with the secessionist Southern Transitional Council (STC) and other United Arab Emirates (UAE)-backed forces exploited the new situation to gain control over territory in southern Yemen. As part of this territorial expansion, STC forces spearheaded several offensives against AQAP beginning in August 2022, leading to a sudden rise in AQAP activity in 2022.2 However, the nature of this overall increase is disputed, with some analysts arguing that it is a sign of AQAP’s weakness rather than its strength.3
Topic:: Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Conflict, Houthis, and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

5. Anti-Government Demonstrations in Iran: A Long-Term Challenge for the Islamic Republic

Author:: Dana Sammy
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Iran was rocked by mass demonstrations triggered by the September 2022 death of Mahsa Amini — a young Kurdish woman — while in the custody of the Guidance Patrol (also known as the ‘morality police’) for allegedly violating the hijab dress code. Protests over the mandatory hijab rule soon coalesced around a wide range of grievances with the regime, with participants demanding protections for civil, political, and human rights and calling for an end to the Islamic Republic. Although street demonstrations have subsided for the time being, how the protest movement will evolve — and how it will impact the stability of the Islamic Republic — remains an open question. This report explores potential answers to this question by examining notable trends and implications of the wave of demonstrations that unfolded in the country between September and December 2022. It argues that several emerging aspects of the nationwide movement may pose a long-term challenge to the regime. The demonstrations following Amini’s death were not only unique in regard to their geographical spread and longevity, but also in the way they brought together different segments of society with both distinct and overlapping grievances. Moreover, amid a harsh crackdown by Iranian authorities, engagement in violence by demonstrators has trended upward: between mid-September and December 2022, ACLED records the highest number of violent demonstration events for any round of nationwide demonstrations in Iran since the beginning of data collection in 2016. The increased use of Molotov cocktails and the killing of dozens of security personnel are among the most significant trends in demonstration violence observed in the latest round of events. The demonstrations did not reach a critical mass necessary to pose an immediate threat to the survival of the regime. Yet, this latest round in a sequence of increasingly violent demonstrations is indicative of growing resentment in Iranian society against the ruling elites and a willingness to express it forcefully despite severe repression. As the regime refuses to reform, the growing frequency and intensity of demonstrations suggests that the government will find itself in an increasingly unstable domestic position and increasingly isolated in the international arena.
Topic:: Government, Human Rights, Women, State Violence, and Protests
Political Geography:: Iran and Middle East

6. Actor Profile: The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG)

Author:: Sandra Pellegrini and María Fernanda Arocha
Publication Date:: 04-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) is a Mexican criminal group that emerged as a splinter group of the Milenio Cartel – one of the Sinaloa Cartel’s allies – after the capture of its leader in 2009 led to internal divisions.1 Initially, the group operated as an armed wing of the Sinaloa Cartel. As part of this alliance, it engaged in a deadly turf war against Los Zetas in Veracruz state, where the group stood out for its use of violence and involvement in numerous massacres.2 Under the leadership of Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, also known as El Mencho, the CJNG grew as an independent organization and one of the most powerful actors in Mexico’s criminal underworld. Rivaling its erstwhile ally, the Sinaloa Cartel, the CJNG turned from an armed wing into a complex drug-producing and trafficking structure, which supplies markets across the globe.3 It has diversified its activities and sources of income, relying on extortion, kidnapping, human trafficking, illegal mining, and oil theft,4 such as the capture of the avocado and oil trade in Michoacán and Guanajuato states.5 To support its growth and international ambitions, the CJNG has expanded its presence to at least 27 of Mexico’s 32 states.6 The presence of the CJNG has often driven increased violence at the local level, notably in areas of territorial dispute with other criminal groups.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Violence, Organized Crime, and Cartels
Political Geography:: Latin America, North America, and Mexico

7. Turkey’s 2023 General Elections and the Kurdish Question

Author:: Ameneh Mehvar and Berk Özlü
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The most consequential elections in Turkey’s recent history are set to be held on 14 May, when Turkish citizens will elect a new president alongside a new parliament. An ideologically disparate coalition of six opposition parties, ranging from secularists, to Islamic conservatives, and Turkish nationalists, have joined forces under the leadership of Kemal Kilicdaroglu to unseat Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Erdogan has been in power for 20 years, initially as prime minister and then as president since 2014.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Minorities, Elections, and Kurds
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

8. The Normalization of Political Violence and the 2023 Legislative Elections in Greece

Author:: Niki Papadogiannaki and Vicky Yiagopoulou
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Elections in Greece come less than three months after the deadly head-on train collision at Tempe in the north of the country that killed 57 passengers. The incident on 28 February triggered demonstrations against the government of Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis, chastising him for initially blaming the collision on “tragic human error.”1 The unrest that followed caused the government to delay announcing the election date, which had been anticipated in April. Due to a new voting law, the elections will be held under a proportional representation system, wherein the leading party needs to secure at least 46% to have a chance to win absolute majority in parliament. However, this percentage has not been reached in the last three decades,2 making a clear victory on 21 May unlikely.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Protests
Political Geography:: Europe and Greece

9. The Muqawama and Its Enemies: Shifting Patterns in Iran-Backed Shiite Militia Activity in Iraq

Author:: Luca Nevola and Miran Feyli
Publication Date:: 05-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The post-2003 security landscape in Iraq has seen the proliferation of dozens of militias identifying with Shiite Islam. Many of these actors are integrated into the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) – a paramilitary group established in 2014 to counter the Islamic State and later incorporated into the Iraqi state forces – and have strong relations with the Iranian regime and its security apparatus.1 These Iran-backed groups include prominent militias such as Kataib Hizbullah (KH), Asaib Ahl al-Haqq (AAH), and Haraka Hizbullah al-Nujaba (HHN), as well as a number of recently formed ‘facade groups’ like Ashab al-Kahf and Qasim al-Jabarin. Such facade groups are generally assumed to operate on behalf of KH, AAH, and HHN (see graph below). These groups are notable for portraying themselves as the Muqawama, or the ‘resistance’ against the United States and other foreign forces.
Topic:: Security, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Militias
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

10. Actor Profile: The Islamic State Sahel Province

Author:: Heni Nsaibia
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel) is a salafi-jihadist militant group and the Sahelian affiliate of the transnational Islamic State (IS) organization. It is primarily active in the border areas between Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger — known as the tri-state border area, or Liptako-Gourma — but it has also engaged in sporadic activity in Algeria, Benin, and Nigeria. The group’s composition reflects the social fabric in the areas where it is active. Its members belong to the Fulani, Arab, Tuareg, Dawsahak, Songhai, and Djerma ethnic groups, although its core leadership was historically composed of Western Saharan militants.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: North Africa and Sahel

11. Beyond Riyadh: Houthi Cross-Border Aerial Warfare 2015-2022

Author:: Luca Nevola
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 25 March 2022, the Houthis launched a large-scale attack on Saudi Arabia using a combination of loitering munitions, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. This coordinated attack targeted oil refineries and energy infrastructure across Saudi territory, from Asir to the Eastern Province, and even threatened the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Jeddah. Yet, it turned out to be the last major gasp of the aerial war between Riyadh and the Sanaa-based government that had started in 2015. A few days later, on 2 April, a United Nations (UN)-mediated truce came into effect, which lasted until 2 October and, as of the time of writing, has effectively terminated Houthi cross-border attacks into Saudi and Emirati territories. In the current situation of relative stability, Saudi-Houthi talks are ongoing to renew and expand the truce.
Topic:: Deterrence, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

12. ACLED Year in Review Global Disorder in 2022

Author:: Timothy Lay
Publication Date:: 01-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine escalated the war to a level that dwarfed all other conflicts in 2022, both in the sheer scale of violence and its deadliness. It also obscured a significant overall deterioration of the security situation in most other regions worldwide. Driven by heightened levels of conflict in both new and longstanding hotspots, political violence increased substantially over the course of the year. While 2022 saw some positive developments – including a significant reduction in total violent events in places like Afghanistan and Yemen after years of war – these gains only represent qualified improvements. Despite the aggregate decline in events in Afghanistan and Yemen, for example, they remain home to two of the most complex and severe conflict environments in the world. Globally, political violence targeting civilians became not only more common but also more deadly in 2022, underscoring the fact that it is civilian communities that are increasingly shouldering the burden of rising conflict levels around the world.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Civilians, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Russia, Ukraine, Yemen, and Global Focus

13. Deadly Rio de Janeiro: Armed Violence and the Civilian Burden

Author:: Bhavani Castro and Julia Links Franciotti
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The public security situation in Brazil is complicated, and particularly in Rio de Janeiro state, which has high levels of violence and criminality. The presence of multiple different criminal groups fighting for territory, coupled with abusive government measures to tackle criminal activity, has created a deadly, high-risk environment for civilians in the state. In 2021, Rio de Janeiro registered 27 violent deaths per 100,000 inhabitants, a rate lower than states like Bahia and Ceará but significantly higher than the national average of 22. Rio de Janeiro also ranked first among Brazilian states in the number of deaths recorded during police interventions, with at least 1,356 people reportedly killed.1 In May 2021, for example, a police operation against drug traffickers in the Jacarezinho community in Rio de Janeiro city resulted in 29 reported fatalities. While authorities claimed that all those killed in the operation were linked to criminal groups, witnesses reported that police officers entered civilian houses and carried out extrajudicial executions.2 The Jacarezinho operation was the deadliest single event recorded by ACLED in Brazil in 2021. A year later, in May 2022, military and federal police forces clashed with the Red Command (CV) in the Vila Cruzeiro community in the Penha Complex, resulting in at least 26 reported fatalities, including civilians. These are not isolated incidents, but rather indicative of the increasing lethality of violence in Rio de Janeiro in 2021 and 2022, and the rising threat to civilians.
Topic:: Crime, Elections, Violence, Civilians, Militias, Gangs, and Public Security
Political Geography:: Brazil, South America, and Rio de Janeiro

14. Political Violence and the 2023 Nigerian Election

Author:: Andrea Carboni and Ladd Serwat
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 25 February 2023, Nigerians will elect a new president, vice president, and members of the National Assembly. Term limit legislation bars President Muhammadu Buhari from running for a third term, and the end of his presidency marks the longest democratic stretch since independence. Eighteen candidates are vying for the presidency, and at least 4,223 candidates are running for the 469 seats in the National Assembly.1 The presidential frontrunners include Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the incumbent All Progressives Congress (APC), Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), and Peter Obi, the Labour Party (LP) candidate who has surprisingly led in the pre-election polls. Two weeks after the national election, on 11 March 2023, 28 out of 36 states will also elect a new governor, with 17 incumbent governors reaching their term limits and hence barred from re-running.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

15. Anti-Government Demonstrations and Separatism in Thailand: Political Disorder Trends Ahead of the 2023 General Election

Author:: Vasan Chen, Pam B., Fiona Wong, and Elliott Bynum
Publication Date:: 02-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: With the general election in Thailand anticipated in May 2023, tensions that have sparked unrest in the country in previous years remain unresolved, despite declines in particular types of political violence and demonstration events in the past year. Political disorder in Thailand ranges from violence involving separatists in the Deep South to demonstrations over the continued presence of the monarchy and the military in politics. Following an increase in 2021, political violence involving separatists in the Deep South had been on the wane in 2022 until attacks in August caused a significant spike. Meanwhile, amid ongoing judicial harassment under the lèse-majesté law that criminalizes criticizing the monarchy, anti-government demonstrations calling for an end to the monarchy and the military in politics declined in 2022 compared to the previous two years. Yet the tensions underlying the street protests – as evidenced by the uptick in demonstrations in November during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit and the hunger strike initiated earlier this year by two activists charged under the lèse-majesté law – have not been put to rest. The stage is set for the possible reemergence of demonstrations and disorder in Thailand around the upcoming election this year. Drawing on new data,1 this report examines political violence and demonstration trends under the administration of Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the leader of the 2014 military coup, from the previous general election in March 2019 to the end of 2022.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Separatism, Demonstrations, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Thailand and Southeast Asia

16. Fact Sheet: Crisis in Ethiopia’s Amhara Region

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 08-2023
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Violence is escalating in Amhara region, prompting the government to declare a state of emergency Nearly 30 clashes between government forces and Fano militias were recorded in Amhara last week, with most concentrated in North Wello and West Gojam zones, though fighting has been spread throughout the region. This marks an almost eightfold increase in armed clashes in the region relative to the weekly average since the start of the crisis in April. While Amhara was among the least volatile regions in the country prior to the start of the northern Ethiopia conflict in 2021, it is now one of the most unstable. Persistent insecurity in Amhara poses a significant threat to the federal government, the Abiy administration, and Ethiopia’s stability at large.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Instability
Political Geography:: Africa, Ethiopia, and Amhara

17. Unrest in French Overseas Territories and Corsica: Analysis of Violent Demonstration Trends From 2020 to Early 2022

Author:: Adam Miller, Timothy Lay, and Niki Papadogiannaki
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 24 April 2022, French President Emmanuel Macron secured re-election, defeating far-right candidate Marine Le Pen. Despite his re-election to the presidency, dissatisfaction with Macron has been reflected by his relatively poor performance in both the presidential and parliamentary elections, with notable swings to both the political far-right and hard left (France24, 20 June 2022). During the presidential election, Macron lost electoral support in several regions of France and the overseas territories, with Le Pen comfortably outperforming Macron in Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana, Mayotte, and Réunion (Guardian, 25 April 2022). Moreover, Macron’s Ensemble coalition lost its absolute majority in parliament during legislative elections on 12 and 19 June. Ensemble lost seats to the New Ecologic and Social People’s Union (NUPES), the left-wing coalition formed by hard-left leader Jean-Luc Mélenchon, and Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (Euronews, 20 June 2022). While National Rally did not win any parliamentary seats in the territories, several Macron-supporting incumbent politicians lost their seats to NUPES or regionalist candidates (Le Monde, 19 June 2022). Most significantly, Secretary of State for the Sea Justine Benin lost her parliamentary seat in Guadeloupe to NUPES-supported Christian Baptiste (20 Minutes, 19 June 2022). These political developments follow more than a year of heightened levels of demonstration activity across mainland France, overseas territories, and Corsica. Driven by opposition to coronavirus restrictions, demonstrations across mainland France,1 overseas territories,2 and Corsica surged throughout 2021, with demonstration levels remaining elevated ahead of the presidential election in April. Although demonstrations spiked throughout French territory, analysis of this trend sheds light on complex regional dynamics. Most notably, since the beginning of 2020,3 demonstrations have been far more likely to involve violent activity, destructive activity, and/or barricades4 in French overseas territories and Corsica compared to mainland France. While violent demonstration levels have increased across the board, root issues vary. In Corsica, the violent death of a Corsican prisoner renewed calls for greater autonomy, while in the Americas, coronavirus restrictions rekindled discontent rooted in systemic inequality. Violent demonstration activity in the territories and Corsica reflects an underlying disconnect with the government in Paris. This report examines the regional trends that have emerged out of increased demonstration activity in mainland France, the overseas territories, and Corsica.
Topic:: Political Violence, COVID-19, and Demonstrations
Political Geography:: Europe, France, Corsica, and French Overseas Territories

18. Kenya’s Political Violence Landscape in the Lead-Up to the 2022 Elections

Author:: Clionadh Raleigh and Caleb Wafula
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Kenya went to the polls on 9 August 2022 after a five-year cycle, marking the third general election since the promulgation of a new constitution in 2010. This represents the end of the second and final term of the Jubilee Alliance party government under President Uhuru Kenyatta and Deputy President William Ruto, a current presidential contender. The presidential campaign between Raila Odinga — another ‘legacy’ candidate who has previously run four unsuccessful presidential campaigns — and Ruto has experienced some local troubles, but the focus during this campaign is whether the Kenyan electoral landscape has really shifted to emphasize class, demographic, and elite divisions.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:: Kenya and Africa

19. Wagner Group Operations in Africa: Civilian Targeting Trends in the Central African Republic and Mal

Author:: Ladd Serwat, Heni Nsaibia, Vincenzo Carbone, and Timothy Lay
Publication Date:: 08-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 30 March 2022, the Foreign Affairs Committee of the UK Parliament launched an inquiry into states’ use of private military contractors (PMC), drawing particular attention to the prominent Russian PMC known as the Wagner Group (UK Parliament, 30 March 2022). The decision to launch the inquiry came as Wagner Group forces deployed to Ukraine, and a series of reports emerged implicating Wagner mercenaries in human rights violations in Mali. This was only one of the latest efforts to investigate the Wagner Group’s activities. Past initiatives came amid heightened international concern over Wagner Group operations in the Central African Republic (CAR). Multiple UN bodies have previously tabled concerns or opened investigations into alleged abuses perpetrated by Wagner mercenaries (UN Security Council, 25 June 2021; UN Info, 31 March 2021). In June 2021, the UN Panel of Experts on CAR tabled reports of “indiscriminate killings” and violence against civilians at the hands of “Russian instructors” to the UN Security Council (UN Security Council, 25 June 2021). The UN peacekeeping mission in CAR (MINUSCA) and Rwandan special forces have also expressed concerns about joint operations with Wagner over alleged human rights violations (UN Info, 31 March 2021; Corbeau News, 13 June 2021). Moreover, the European Union (EU) imposed sanctions on the Wagner Group and Wagner-linked individuals in December 2021 (European Council, 13 December 2021). In light of growing concerns about Wagner’s activities in Mali and their deployment in Ukraine, this report analyzes ACLED data on the group’s engagement in political violence in recent years. It focuses on civilian targeting by the Wagner Group in CAR and Mali, where they have operated alongside state forces since 2018 and 2021, respectively. Analysis of the data reveals several clear trends:
Topic:: Human Rights, Armed Forces, Civilians, Wagner Group, and Private Military Companies (PMCs)
Political Geography:: Africa, Mali, and Central African Republic

20. Violence Targeting Civilians Increased During Elections in Papua New Guinea

Author:: Regina Chung, Laura Sorica, Elliott Bynum, and Josh Satre
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Violence targeting civilians in Papua New Guinea rose in the lead-up to and during the campaign, voting, and vote counting periods for the country’s recent national elections. When voting began on 4 July, mob violence at polling stations became deadly amid allegations of voter fraud, missing ballots, and disputed counting. With a decentralized political system that contributes to clientelism, long-standing communal and clan conflicts also reignited during the elections.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, and Civilians
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific and Papua New Guinea

21. The UN-Mediated Truce in Yemen: Impacts of the First Two Months

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Key Trends: Both Saudi-led coalition airstrikes from fighter jets in Yemen and Houthi drone and missile attacks on Saudi Arabia stopped entirely. In the year leading up to the truce, ACLED records an average of more than 40 coalition airstrike events per week in Yemen,3 and an average of four Houthi drone and missile attacks per week in Saudi Arabia.4 Shelling across the main frontlines increased significantly, becoming the main form of political violence in Yemen. During the first two months of the truce, shelling, artillery, and missile attack events accounted for 55% of all political violence events, compared to 19% in the two months preceding the truce. While armed clashes between conflict parties remained at relatively high levels in April and May 2022, their lethality decreased considerably. The lethality of armed clashes was five times lower during the first two months of the truce than during the two months prior. April and May 2022 saw the lowest levels of reported fatalities since January 2015, but civilians suffered disproportionately from political violence. Although reported fatalities from civilian targeting decreased by more than 50% from March to April, their share of the total reported fatalities increased by more than 50%.
Topic:: Treaties and Agreements, United Nations, Conflict, and Violence
Political Geography:: Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations

22. Fact Sheet: Anti-LGBT+ Mobilization on the Rise in the United States

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 06-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Amid a wave of legislation targeting the LGBT+ community, anti-LGBT+ mobilization is increasing in the United States (see graph below). Anti-LGBT+ mobilization captured by ACLED — including demonstrations (both peaceful and violent), acts of political violence (including sexual violence, non-sexual attacks, and mob violence), and the dissemination of offline propaganda (like flyering) — rose fourfold from 15 events in 2020 to 61 in 2021. As of early June 2022 and the start of LGBT+ Pride Month, ACLED has already recorded 33 anti-LGBT+ events this year — putting 2022 on track to be a worse year for anti-LGBT+ mobilization than 2021.
Topic:: Political Violence, Discrimination, Protests, and LGBT+
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

23. Religious Repression and Disorder Snapshots: 2020- 2021

Author:: Luca Nevola
Publication Date:: 02-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: ACLED-Religion’s incorporation of historical back-coding data for 2020 adds over 6,000 events across the seven countries covered by the pilot project: Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, and Yemen. The new data include nearly 2,400 harassment events, nearly 700 demonstration events, over 2,150 political violence events, and over 750 strategic developments. The back-coding release expands ACLED-Religion’s full dataset to nearly 13,000 total events from the beginning of 2020 to the present. This report identifies key trends in religious disorder and repression in the seven countries covered by ACLED-Religion across 2020 and 2021. The report is organized around two sections. The first section examines overall patterns of repression and disorder, showing how macro-trends are driven by surges of events in specific countries. It also provides a focus on protest events and targets of religious repression. The second section explores potential triggers of religious repression, addressing the role of COVID-19 protocols and religious commemorations.
Topic:: Religion, Repression, Data, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Middle East and North Africa

24. Fact Sheet: Global Demonstrations Against the Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Author:: Sam Jones
Publication Date:: 03-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Following the Russian invasion, a wave of demonstrations in solidarity with Ukraine spread around the world. Between 24 February and 4 March, ACLED records more than 1,800 demonstrations in support of Ukraine and against Russian aggression globally. During this time, demonstrations were reported across at least 93 countries and territories (see map below). Nearly all of these demonstrations — over 99% — were peaceful (i.e. protesters engaged in neither violence nor destructive activity).
Topic:: Solidarity, Conflict, Demonstrations, and Intervention
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Global Focus

25. Jihad Takes Root in Northern Benin

Author:: Leif Brottem
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The 14 September 2022 killing of two customs agents days after the kidnapping of three individuals with government ties signals an alarming uptick in jihadist violence in northern Benin (Les 4 Vérités, 14 September 2022). ACLED records 28 organized political violence events in northern Benin attributed to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) or the Islamic State between 1 November 2021 and 14 September 2022 (see map below). It is increasingly clear that jihadist cells have become deeply established in the country’s northern regions. The Beninese government is currently ramping up its threat response, which looks likely to include a security agreement with Rwanda (Radio France Internationale, 10 September 2022). It is more urgent than ever that the country’s counterinsurgency avoids the tragic mistakes of governments in the Sahel by blunting the deepening roots of the insurgency in rural areas.
Topic:: Counterinsurgency, Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Africa and Benin

26. Jihad Takes Root in Northern Benin

Author:: Leif Brottem
Publication Date:: 09-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The 14 September 2022 killing of two customs agents days after the kidnapping of three individuals with government ties signals an alarming uptick in jihadist violence in northern Benin (Les 4 Vérités, 14 September 2022). ACLED records 28 organized political violence events in northern Benin attributed to Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) or the Islamic State between 1 November 2021 and 14 September 2022 (see map below). It is increasingly clear that jihadist cells have become deeply established in the country’s northern regions. The Beninese government is currently ramping up its threat response, which looks likely to include a security agreement with Rwanda (Radio France Internationale, 10 September 2022). It is more urgent than ever that the country’s counterinsurgency avoids the tragic mistakes of governments in the Sahel by blunting the deepening roots of the insurgency in rural areas.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Insurgency, Violent Extremism, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Africa and Benin

27. Papuan Independence and Political Disorder in Indonesia

Author:: Sindy Ajara, Laura Sorica, and Elliott Bynum
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In Indonesia, political disorder in Papua and West Papua1 provinces increased in 2021 amid opposition to the revision of the Special Autonomy Law. First promulgated in 2001, the Special Autonomy Law was initially intended to give greater power to the local governments in the Papuan region. However, new revisions to the law introduced in 2021 expand the central government’s authority and have allowed for the unwelcome creation of new provinces in the region (Tempo, 16 July 2021). Tensions between the political demands of many Papuan groups and the centralized, development-oriented agenda of the Indonesian state continue to fuel unrest. This report examines disorder trends related to the issue of Papuan independence since 2018,2 focusing in particular on the rise in clashes between state forces and the West Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB), increasing levels of violence targeting civilians by the TPNPB, and disproportionate state intervention in peaceful protests held by Papuans and Papuan groups.3
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, Protests, Civilians, and Independence
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Southeast Asia, and Papua

28. Violence in Yemen During the UN-Mediated Truce: April-October 2022

Author:: Raed Khelifi, Emile Roy, and Luca Nevola
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 2 October 2022, the UN-mediated truce in Yemen came to an end as the warring sides rejected a proposal presented by UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg to extend and expand the agreement (Office of the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen, 2 October 2022). The truce had first come into effect on 2 April 2022 and was renewed twice for two-month periods, in June and August. Among other things, it provided for a halt to offensive military operations by both the Houthi and Internationally Recognized Government (IRG)1 sides. Overall, the six months of truce brought several tangible benefits to the Yemeni population, including improved access to humanitarian aid (ReliefWeb, 31 May 2022), greater economic opportunities (ACAPS, 17 May 2022), and a significant reduction in violence and casualties countrywide. ACLED’s report on the first two months of truce found that April and May 2022 saw the lowest levels of reported fatalities from political violence in Yemen since January 2015. This trend continued for the whole truce period: reported fatalities from political violence between April and September 2022 were consistently lower than any other month since January 2015.
Topic:: United Nations, Violence, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

29. Political Violence During Brazil’s 2022 General Elections

Author:: Sandra Pellegrini and Maria Puolakkainen
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Following the first round of voting in Brazil’s general elections on 2 October, left-wing two-time former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva – leader of the Workers’ Party (PT) and the ‘Brazil of Hope’ coalition – leads the race with 48.4% of the vote. He was followed closely by far-right incumbent President Jair Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party (PL) and the ‘For the Good of Brazil’ coalition, who outperformed the polls by receiving 43.2% of the votes. Lula’s inability to exceed 50% has forced a runoff election between Lula and Bolsonaro scheduled for 30 October. The narrow margin between the two candidates came as a surprise, as many predicted a first-round victory for Lula (BBC, 3 October 2022). The close outcome underscores the deepening polarization of Brazil’s electorate, with both contenders garnering significant popular support with opposed electoral programs. Amid this polarization, antagonism between Bolsonaro’s administration and the opposition has fueled increased electoral violence, which continues to pose a threat ahead of the presidential runoff election. UN experts warned that threats, intimidation, and political violence “generate terror among the population and deter potential candidates from running for office,” urging Brazilian authorities to ensure the safety of candidates and most-at-risk communities (OHCHR, 22 September 2022).
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

30. The 2022 Israeli Legislative Election and Political Violence in the West Bank

Author:: Ameneh Mehvar and Matan Ayash
Publication Date:: 10-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 1 November, Israelis will go to the polls for the fifth time in three-and-a-half years. This latest round of elections follows the dissolution of a historically broad coalition — headed by Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid — that consisted of right-wing, centrist, left-leaning parties, in addition to the first Arab party to serve in a ruling coalition in Israel’s history. The so-called change coalition was Israel’s first government without Benjamin Netanyahu as prime minister since 2009. The formation of an ideologically diverse coalition was borne out of the feeling of necessity to prevent Netanyahu from continuing his tenure. Netanyahu, who is currently on trial for alleged bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, has become the primary fault line in an Israeli political environment that has been deadlocked since 2019. While the majority of seats in the Knesset are held by right-wing parties, reflecting an increasing number of Jewish Israelis who self-identify as right-wing (IDI, 30 August 2022), the rift among the political right over Netanyahu has prevented the formation of a right-wing government, creating two competing blocs that have shaped Israeli politics since 2019.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, and Domestic Politics
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and West Bank

31. From the Capitol Riot to the Midterms: Shifts in American Far-Right Mobilization Between 2021 and 2022

Author:: Roudabeh Kishi
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: After the attack on the Capitol in January 2021 and through the November 2022 midterm elections, far-right mobilization has only continued to evolve in the United States. Currently, far-right activity in 2022 is on track to exceed the level of activity reported in 2021, driven by a significant uptick in white nationalist, white supremacist, and anti-LGBT+ organizing around the country. This report analyzes shifts in the drivers of far-right mobilization over the course of the year, with a focus on how these drivers shaped the activities of armed militias and violent groups like the Proud Boys in states with contentious elections, as well as a look at trends to watch ahead of the 2024 campaign season.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, LGBT+, Far Right, White Supremacy, and January 6
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

32. Political Violence During Brazil’s 2022 Presidential Runoff

Author:: Maria Puolakkainen and Sandra Pellegrini
Publication Date:: 12-2022
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Following his victory in the presidential runoff election on 30 October, President-elect Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva described Brazil as “one country, one people, one great nation.” While this speech may indicate the incoming president’s willingness to seek unity, it comes at a time of heightened political polarization in Brazil. Inflammatory rhetoric around the elections and spikes in political violence throughout the election period have raised concerns over the potential for further outbreaks of unrest, even beyond the aftermath of the runoff. The contestation of the election results and calls for military intervention by supporters of outgoing President Jair Bolsonaro present an ongoing challenge to the “peace and unity” promoted by President-elect Lula in his victory speech (Folha de S.Paulo, 31 October 2022).
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Jair Bolsonaro, and Lula da Silva
Political Geography:: Brazil and South America

33. Political Violence Targeting LGBT+ Communities in Africa

Author:: Kaden Paulson-Smith and Timothy Lay
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: New supplemental data on political violence targeting LGBT+ communities add nearly 100 events to the ACLED dataset. This brief analyzes the new data and explores trends in violence across Africa.
Topic:: Political Violence, LGBT+, and Data
Political Geography:: Africa

34. Religious Repression During Ashura Season: Cases from Bahrain, Iraq, and Yemen

Author:: Luca Nevola
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Religious celebrations can function as catalysts for religious repression, carrying a potential for state abuses and minority contestation (Hintz & Quatrini, 2020). A focus on Ashura celebrations demonstrates how regimes and believers can choose to respond to this Shiite festival depending on their respective religious affiliations, and how these responses can raise the risk for certain forms of religious repression. On Ashura, which recurs on the tenth day of the Islamic month of Muharram, millions of Shiite believers across the globe mourn the death of Imam Husayn by reviving the events of Kerbala and staging mourning processions (Nikjoo et al., 22 March 2020).1 Commemorations continue for 40 days after Ashura, culminating with the Arbaeen walking pilgrimage, in which mourners walk to the Imam Husayn Shrine in Kerbala, Iraq. In 2021, ACLED-Religion records a 50% increase in religious repression in the week preceding Muharram (31 July-6 August) compared to the week prior, and a further 58% increase during the first week of Muharram (7-13 August). Notably, most Ashura-related2 repression events are concentrated in just three countries covered by the pilot project — Iraq, Yemen, and Bahrain (see figure below)3 — that have in common the presence of a large Shiite population. In these three countries, Ashura-related repression accounts for 46% of all religious repression events during ‘Ashura season’ (9 August-27 September).4 Across all seven countries covered by ACLED-Religion, Ashura-related repression accounts for around 20% of religious repression events during the Ashura season.
Topic:: Religion, Minorities, Repression, and Shia Islam
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, and Bahrain

35. An Unlikely Success: Demonstrations Against Farm Laws in India

Author:: Katerina Bozhinova, Josh Satre, and Shreyya Rajagopal
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 9 December 2021, Indian farmers announced an end to demonstrations against the country’s aborted agricultural reforms (The New York Times, 9 December 2021). Still, key organizers maintain that the movement will continue to monitor government implementation of demonstrator demands into 2022 (The Free Press Journal, 12 December 2021). The decision followed the repeal of agricultural laws deregulating the sale, pricing, and storage of farm produce on 29 November (Reuters, 29 November 2021), more than a year after they were enacted on 20 September 2020 (BBC News, 16 February 2021). As of 9 December 2021, ACLED records over 5,200 demonstration events associated with the farm laws across India.
Topic:: Social Movement, Protests, Demonstrations, and Farmers
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

36. The Hazm Brigades

Author:: Raed Khelifi
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: This series maps the activity of little-known military brigades and armed groups proliferating throughout the conflict in Yemen. Mapping these actors has become relevant for understanding future trajectories of violence in Yemen as some of them have developed significant combat capabilities with shifting allegiances. While some follow their own interests, others have clear allegiances to the internationally recognized government or the Southern Transitional Council. As with actors in other conflict scenarios, such allegiances are, however, never set in stone. Rather, allegiances are a fluid process, shifting due to changes of outside circumstances (e.g. the behavior of a patron) or battlefield victories. In order to be better prepared for these changes, this series maps the activity of such military brigades and armed groups — some of them have become relevant already, while others may see their turn towards increased relevance in the future.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Yemen and Gulf Nations

37. Mid-Year Update: 10 Conflicts to Worry About in 2021

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In ACLED’s special report on 10 conflicts to worry about at the start of 2021, we identified a range of flashpoints and emerging crises where violent political disorder was likely to evolve or worsen over the course of the year: Ethiopia, India & Pakistan, Myanmar, Haiti, Belarus, Colombia, Armenia & Azerbaijan, Yemen, Mozambique, and the Sahel.1 Our mid-year update revisits these 10 cases, tracking key developments in political violence and protest activity during the first half of 2021 and analyzing trends to watch in the coming months.
Topic:: Political Violence, Conflict, Protests, and Political Crisis
Political Geography:: Pakistan, India, Yemen, Colombia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Haiti, Mozambique, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Belarus, Sahel, and Global Focus

38. Religious Repression During Ramadan: Cases from Yemen, Bahrain, Iraq, Egypt, and Palestine

Author:: Luca Nevola
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Most religious holidays and festivals carry a potential for state repression and minority contestation. This is explained by three main factors: firstly, celebrations serve as a focal point in heightening identity salience; secondly, during major festivals, worshipers tend to defy state orders; thirdly, religious celebrations and rituals can disguise political claims and work as sites of minority contestation and resistance (Hintz & Quatrini, 2020; Scott, 1992). All these general assumptions apply to the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. During Ramadan, Muslims aim to “be pious, moral, and disciplined” (Schielke, 2009). However, a heightened emphasis on religious practice also tends to fuel sectarian cleavages and state repression. In comparison to previous months of 2021, ACLED-Religion data show an overall increase of repression events focused on Muslim religious practices during Ramadan, which ran from 12 April to 12 May (see figure below). This upward trend is underpinned by a large number of repression events specifically targeting Ramadan-related religious practices1 in five countries: Yemen, Bahrain, Iraq, Palestine, and Egypt.2 Overall, Ramadan-related repression accounts for 60% of all repression events targeting religious practices during the Islamic holy month.3 The trend can be ascribed to four main drivers: state suppression of Ramadan-related rituals for sectarian reasons; enforcement of COVID-19 restrictions; interaction of Islamic and non-Islamic celebrations; and politicization of religious practice.
Topic:: Religion, Minorities, Repression, and Ramadan
Political Geography:: Middle East

39. Surface Tension: ‘Communal’ Violence and Elite Ambitions in South Sudan

Author:: Dan Watson
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: This report examines recent developments in South Sudan. The country has been experiencing a surge in ‘communal’ violence in the wake of a peace agreement signed in 2018, as the oil economy that has underpinned South Sudanese elite politics for over 15 years begins to disintegrate. This analysis re-interprets ‘communal’ violence in South Sudan, situating conflicts organized around ethnic or sub-ethnic lines in relation to national-level conflicts and inter-elite rivalries. These conflicts and elite dynamics are changing in response to the decarbonization of South Sudan, which is pushing elite ambitions away from the capital and back into provincial areas.
Topic:: Political Violence, Treaties and Agreements, Violence, and Elites
Political Geography:: Africa and South Sudan

40. Appetite for Destruction: The Military Counter-Revolution in Sudan

Author:: Dan Watson
Publication Date:: 10-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The military coup d’état in Sudan on 25 October 2021 sent shockwaves across the region and through diplomatic circuits. Following the arrest of the civilian Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and several prominent senior officials from the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC), demonstrators took to the streets across Khartoum. They were confronted by soldiers from the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) paramilitaries in the capital, with reports emerging of Central Reserve Police paramilitaries also being deployed (Human Rights Watch, 29 October 2021). Over 10 people have reportedly been killed by state forces thus far and over 160 wounded (Radio Dabanga, 29 October 2021; UN OCHA, 28 October 2021), with at least some victims uninvolved in the demonstrations (Eye Radio, 27 October 2021). Demonstrations have since spread across much of Sudan.
Topic:: Violence, Coup, Counterrevolution, Demonstrations, and Military
Political Geography:: Africa and Sudan

41. ‘Commanding Right and Forbidding Wrong:’ The Imposition of Islamic Morality in Iran, Yemen, Egypt, and Iraq

Author:: Luca Nevola
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Religious repression is often targeted at individuals and groups that express religious behaviors or religious affiliation (Fox, 2016; Sarkissian, 26 May 2015). However, repressive acts can also be directed at imposing a coercer’s religious values regardless of the victim’s religious affiliation (or lack thereof). ACLED-Religion captures this type of religious repression under the ‘imposition’ religious context (ACLED-Religion Codebook, 2021). Critically, religious imposition does not delineate specific repression victims. Indeed, a perpetrator can impose their values on believers of a different religion, on “religiously unaffiliated” or non-practicing individuals (Pew Research Center, 18 December 2012), and on individuals practicing the perpetrator’s religion differently.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Violence, and Repression
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, and Egypt

42. The Drug War Rages on in the Philippines: New Data on the Civilian Toll, State Responsibility, and Shifting Geographies of Violence

Author:: Roudabeh Kishi and Tomas Buenaventura
Publication Date:: 11-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: New supplemental data for the Philippines add nearly 1,000 events and more than 1,100 fatalities to the ACLED dataset for the period of 2016 to the present, expanding our coverage of the country’s war on drugs. This report analyzes key trends from the data and sheds new light on the drug war’s civilian death toll. Download the data and check the Resource Library for more information about ACLED methodology.
Topic:: State Violence, Drugs, Civilians, and Data
Political Geography:: Philippines and Asia-Pacific

43. Violence Targeting Women in Politics: Trends in Targets, Types, and Perpetrators of Political Violence

Author:: Roudabeh Kishi
Publication Date:: 12-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The addition of identity types to ACLED data on political violence targeting women sheds new light on the physical threats to women’s participation in political processes, such as running for or holding office, supporting or voting for political candidates, leading human rights campaigns or civil society initiatives, and more. This report analyzes the expanded data to unpack key trends in violence targeting women in politics. Download the expanded data and read the updated Political Violence Targeting Women FAQs for more information about ACLED methodology.
Topic:: Political Violence, Politics, Women, and Violence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

44. ACLED 2020: The Year in Review

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: One year since the official start of the pandemic in March 2020, COVID-19 has killed more than two million people and brought at least half the earth’s population under lockdown (New York Times, 11 March 2021; New York Times, 3 April 2020). The health crisis has had major impacts on worldwide conflict and disorder patterns, contributing to an overall decrease in political violence levels last year even as it fueled an increase in demonstration activity. And while the pandemic’s effects have been global in scale, they have not been felt equally across conflict contexts: although violence declined on the aggregate level, it rose in nearly half the world’s countries. As vaccine distribution accelerates and countries relax public health restrictions, conflict levels are expected to increase throughout 2021(for more, see ACLED’s special report: Ten Conflicts to Worry About in 2021). Last year, ACLED expanded data collection to Latin America and the Caribbean, East Asia, the United States, and all of Europe, achieving near global coverage. Our 2020 annual report reviews the past 12 months of data on political violence and demonstration activity around the world.
Topic:: Political Violence, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Demonstrations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

45. Understanding Political and Social Unrest in Bolivia

Author:: Juan Esteban Mosquera
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Since 2019, Bolivia has been in a state of political turmoil. Accusations of election fraud during the presidential election that year led to the resignation of longtime President Evo Morales. This event motivated many Bolivians, including supporters of Morales’ party, the left-wing Movement for Socialism (MAS), to demand more transparency from both government institutions and political parties. As MAS has returned to power with the election of President Luis Arce in 2020, members and supporters of the party have demonstrated to call for more open political processes. Recent mobilization has centered on the selection process for municipal candidates amid questions over Morales’ continued control of the party. Aggravating the political unrest, Bolivia now faces an unprecedented economic crisis amplified by the coronavirus pandemic (Societe Generale, 31 October 2020). In the midst of political and economic tensions, municipal elections were carried out on 7 March 2021. Preliminary pool results indicate that MAS candidates are behind in at least 10 large cities (El Deber, 8 March 2021). Though it will take weeks to see official results for different levels of the government, the outcome will have significant repercussions for Bolivia’s political stability in the coming years.
Topic:: Elections, Demonstrations, Civil Unrest, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: South America and Bolivia

46. Five Insights into the ‘Comfort Women’ Protest Movement in South Korea: 2018-2020

Author:: Jihyeon Won and Josh Satre
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Protesters have been gathering in front of the former Japanese Embassy in Seoul, South Korea every Wednesday since January 1992. They call on the Japanese government to officially apologize to Korean victims who were coerced to render sexual services to Japanese military personnel before and during World War II (The Korean Council, 2021). The surviving victims and their supporters advocate for a just resolution to the sexual violence against ‘comfort women’ — those women forced to provide sexual services to Japanese officers and soldiers (Asian Women’s Fund, 2021). As one of the longest-running protest movements in South Korea, the ongoing demonstration movement has gathered broader support over time; has expanded geographically; and, despite obstacles, has continued to be a barometer for Japan-South Korea relations. This report examines five key elements of these demonstrations between January 2018 and December 2020, including the leading role of the Korean Council, the other main actors involved in the movement, the geographic spread of the demonstrations, increased counter-protests, and rising anti-Japan sentiment. As the issue of ‘comfort women’ remains unresolved despite nearly three decades of demonstrations, the movement is likely to persist due to broad support across Korean society, resilience in the face of counter-protest movements, and tense relations between Japan and South Korea.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, Social Movement, Protests, and Comfort Women
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and Korea

47. A Year of COVID-19

Author:: Roudabeh Kishi
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: March 2021 marks the first anniversary of the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO). One year on, this report explores ACLED’s special coverage of the pandemic’s impact on political violence and protest trends around the world – analyzing changes in demonstration activity, state repression, mob attacks, overall rates of armed conflict, and more through the COVID-19 Disorder Tracker.
Topic:: Political Violence, Conflict, COVID-19, and Demonstrations
Political Geography:: Global Focus

48. A Turbulent Run-up to Elections in Somalia

Author:: Andrea Carboni and Mohamed Daud
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Somalia’s parliamentary and presidential elections are set to take place amidst a general climate of political tensions and violence. A constitutional crisis stoked by months of political deadlock between President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed ‘Farmaajo’ and the opposition threatens to escalate into a violent conflict pitting federal forces against state-based militias, as well as armed clans with competing loyalties. Across the country, signs of increasing unrest have surfaced in Somalia’s federal states of Jubaland, Galmudug, and Hirshabelle, exposing the risk of a violent turn in Somalia’s political crisis.
Topic:: Political Violence, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

49. Political Instability and Demonstration Trends in Peru

Author:: Bhavani Castro and Juan Esteban Mosquera
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In recent years, Peru has been through multiple political crises, earning a reputation in Latin America for its unstable politics. Now the country is approaching the first round of a presidential election scheduled for 11 April 2021 and, with 18 candidates running for the position, the latest polls indicate an uncertain outcome. Five candidates are tied and a quarter of the electorate remains undecided on who to vote for (El País, 4 April 2021). This report reviews demonstration trends in Peru from 2018 to 2021. ACLED data show that increased political instability led to a significant spike in the number of demonstration events in 2020 (see figure below). The population’s growing dissatisfaction with enduring government corruption and an economic crisis exacerbated by the coronavirus pandemic have contributed to the rise in demonstrations. Demonstrations involving farmers have likewise increased during the pandemic period in response to legislation that they view as adversely affecting their business. The outcome of the presidential election will impact the trajectory of these trends in the coming years.
Topic:: Elections, Demonstrations, Civil Unrest, and Instability
Political Geography:: South America and Peru

50. Fact Sheet: Anti-Protest Legislation and Demonstration Activity in the US

Author:: Sam Jones and Roudabeh Kishi
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Since the wave of demonstrations over the police killing of George Floyd in May 2020, state governments have proposed more than 90 “anti-protest” bills to restrict demonstration activity around the country (Al Jazeera, 22 April 2021). Republican lawmakers have introduced 81 bills in 34 states during the 2021 legislative session alone, more than double the number introduced in any other year, according to the International Center for Not-for-Profit Law (New York Times, 21 April 2021; International Center for Not-for-Profit Law, 22 April 2021). These bills have become law in states like Oklahoma and Florida, with new legislation increasing the penalties for “unlawful protesting” and “granting immunity to drivers whose vehicles strike and injure protesters in public streets” (New York Times, 21 April 2021). Although officials have cited instances of protest violence over the past year to justify this new legislative push — with Governor Ron DeSantis labelling Florida’s law “the strongest anti-looting, anti-rioting, pro-law-enforcement piece of legislation in the country” (New York Times, 21 April 2021) — most of these states have experienced low levels of violent or destructive demonstration activity. ACLED data show that, on average, the states in which strict “anti-protest” laws have been proposed are home to the same rate of peaceful protests — 97% of all events — as states that have not pursued such legislation, meaning that violent demonstrations do not feature more prominently in the former than the latter. States like Florida and Oklahoma, which have promulgated some of the most restrictive new laws, have actually seen a lower proportion of demonstrations involving violent or destructive activity than most other states in the country.
Topic:: Social Movement, Protests, Legislation, Black Lives Matter (BLM), and Racial Justice
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

51. Cow Protection Legislation and Vigilante Violence in India

Author:: Shreya Maskara
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In India, over 500,000 students signed up for the government-sponsored nationwide ‘Cow Science’ exam this year, which was scheduled for 25 February 2021. The ‘Cow Science’ exam, a free-of-cost voluntary exam, was purportedly meant to test people’s knowledge about cows, thus furthering curiosity about cows among the public (CNN, 8 January 2021). After widespread criticism of the course material, the exam, a product of the National Cow Commission or the Rashtriya Kamdhenu Aayog (RKA), was indefinitely postponed (Scroll, 22 February 2021). Scientists and educational institutions questioned the reference material as unscientific and critics claimed it was a mass indoctrination attempt by the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which has linked the protection of cows — considered sacred in Hinduism — to its Hindu nationalist policies and rhetoric (Times of India, 22 February 2021). Since the BJP came to power in 2014, laws protecting cows have been amended in several states to include stricter punishments for cow slaughter. Right-wing Hindu nationalist organizations, such as the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), and other cow vigilantes have been emboldened to attack minority groups, including Christian, Muslim, Dalit (formerly known as “untouchables”), or Adivasi (Indigenous) communities, under the guise of protecting cattle. This report analyzes trends in political violence connected to nationalist rhetoric around cow protection in India.
Topic:: Minorities, Violence, Legislation, and Vigilantism
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

52. A New Season of Unrest in Lebanon

Author:: Andrea Carboni
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: ACLED has completed a review of the Lebanese news outlet El Nashra in a monthslong effort to improve coverage of political violence and protest throughout Lebanon. The data release has resulted in the addition of over 2,000 events to the ACLED dataset, accounting for approximately a fourth of the total events recorded between 2016 and 2021 across the country. While not altering underlying trends observed in previous analysis, this supplementation significantly enhances the disaggregation of the ACLED dataset, with more than 60 new locations now recorded as sites of political disorder in Lebanon. What follows is an updated assessment of recent trends in conflict and demonstration activity around the country.
Topic:: Political Violence, News Analysis, Protests, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Middle East and Lebanon

53. Syria: 10 Years On

Author:: Muaz A. and Tarek Albaik
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Ten years since the start of the war in Syria, conflict dynamics vary across each region of the country. This report maps the latest conflict developments, with a focus on the northwestern, southern,1and eastern regions of Syria, including the impact of ongoing Israeli airstrikes. ACLED data show that while conflict levels in northwest Syria plummeted when compared to those in 2019, the Idleb enclave remained one of the most unstable regions in the country in 2020. Nearly a third of all organized political violence events recorded in the country in 2020 occurred in Idleb. Meanwhile, discontent in the southern provinces, notably in Dar’a, remained a source of violence in the south. The Islamic State (IS) remained active in central and eastern Syria throughout the year, carrying out attacks in urban hubs, as well as in the Syrian desert. Lastly, Israel expanded the scope of its airstrikes in Syria in 2020 in response to Iranian entrenchment in the southern and central provinces.
Topic:: History, Conflict, Syrian War, and Violence
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

54. A Year of Racial Justice Protests: Key Trends in Demonstrations Supporting the BLM Movement

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In May 2020, Minneapolis police killed George Floyd, sparking a wave of protests across the United States. Building on initial research published in September 2020 in the wake of the first round of demonstrations, this report maps the protest movement through the beginning of 2021, examines how it has intersected with far-right extremism, and unpacks the aggressive government response in the year since Floyd’s death. All data are available for direct download here. Definitions and methodology decisions are explained in the US coverage FAQs and the US methodology brief. For more information, please check the full ACLED Resource Library.
Topic:: Social Movement, Protests, Black Lives Matter (BLM), Police Brutality, and Racial Justice
Political Geography:: United States of America

55. Religious Repression and Disorder: Egypt, Israel, and Palestine

Author:: Luca Nevola
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: The ACLED-Religion pilot project collects real-time data on religious repression and disorder in the Middle East and North Africa. This spotlight report analyzes key trends from the latest data on Egypt, Israel, and Palestine. For more, download the full ACLED-Religion dataset or explore the data through the interactive ACLED-Religion dashboard.
Topic:: Religion, Repression, Sexuality, Morality, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Egypt

56. Religious Repression and Disorder: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, and Yemen

Author:: Luca Nevola
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Bahrain is an island kingdom ruled by the Sunni Muslim Al Khalifa royal family. The Al Khalifa regime is accused of systematically discriminating against the country’s Shiite community, which is estimated to account for 60% to 70% of Bahrain’s Muslim population (BICI, 10 December 2011). Discriminatory practices affect Shiite believers across a wide array of domains, including employment, freedom of expression, and political rights (USCIRF, April 2020). The Shiite community faces exclusion from the military and security apparatuses (CSIS, 9 December 2016), the arbitrary revocation of Bahraini citizenship (OHCHR, 18 April 2019), and the denial of medical care for prisoners (Amnesty International, 28 September 2018). The sectarian divide in Bahrain is stoked by political tensions. The monarchy sees the Shiite popular majority as a threat, and has historically used alleged ties between Shiite opposition groups and the Iranian regime to justify the systematic denial of political rights. As demonstrated by the “Bandargate” scandal (the public revelation of a report on the regime’s plan to marginalize the Shiite community), the Al Khalifa have also pursued a policy of ‘Sunnization’ of the Bahraini population (Le Monde Diplomatique, 19 October 2006). However, the repression of the Shiite community is not only driven by political considerations: Shiite identity is also targeted for purely sectarian reasons.
Topic:: Religion, Minorities, Discrimination, Conflict, Repression, and Shia Islam
Political Geography:: Middle East and Bahrain

57. Sahel 2021: Communal Wars, Broken Ceasefires, and Shifting Frontlines

Author:: Heni Nsaibia and Jules Duhamel
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In 2021, the Sahel crisis entered its tenth year. Despite the transnational nature of the crisis, each country has experienced different patterns of violence and transformations in the midst of a protracted conflict. This report looks at the patterns of violence in Niger, Burkina Faso, and Mali. It concludes with a review of the wider Sahel region. The report finds that both the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS) and the Al Qaeda-affiliated Jama’at Nusrat Al Islam Wal Muslimin (JNIM) have shifted their efforts to geographic areas beyond the immediate reach of external forces in the face of military pressure in the tri-state border region (or Liptako-Gourma). Renewed engagement in local conflicts has allowed jihadist militant groups to enlarge their scope of action, reassert their influence, remobilize, and gain resources to rebuild. This can be seen clearly in Niger’s Tillaberi and Tahoua regions, the eastern parts of Burkina Faso, and central Mali (see figure below).
Topic:: War, Non State Actors, Islamic State, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Sahel

58. Red Lines: Upheaval and Containment in the Horn of Africa

Author:: Dan Watson
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: This is the final part in a series of three analysis features covering unrest in Sudan. The first in the series — Riders on the Storm — explored the dynamics and agendas which resulted in the Juba Peace Agreement. The second — Danse Macabre — examined the origins of the uprising in Sudan and its trajectory following the coup of April 2019. This final analysis situates Sudan’s current upheaval in the context of the Horn of Africa, and extends the scope of analysis to encompass conflict in Ethiopia and the region.
Topic:: Political Violence, Conflict, Coup, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and Horn of Africa

59. The Myth of Stability: Infighting and Repression in Houthi-Controlled Territories

Author:: Andrea Carboni
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: Six years after the coup that ousted President Abdrabbu Mansour Hadi and his government, the Houthi movement, otherwise known as Ansarallah, has strengthened its grip on northern Yemen. It currently rules over approximately 70% of the country’s population, and in 2020 mounted new military offensives in Al Jawf, Marib and Hodeidah. Domestically, the group has suppressed dissent and won complete control of what is left of the Yemeni state, appointing loyalists in civilian and military bodies and transferring powers from government institutions to a shadowy network of Houthi supervisors. A pervasive security apparatus, built on the ashes of Ali Abdullah Saleh-era intelligence bodies (UN Panel of Experts, 27 January 2020: 9), has focused on protecting the Houthi regime and monitoring the movements of suspected enemies, including humanitarian organizations. Among the successes boasted by Houthi officials is the restoration of security and stability in Houthi-controlled regions, which they contrast with the mayhem plaguing the areas under the authority of the internationally recognized government and allied coalition forces (Yemen Press Agency, 21 December 2019; Al Masirah, 21 July 2020; Ansarollah, 2 January 2021).
Topic:: Conflict, Violence, Repression, Houthis, and Infighting
Political Geography:: Middle East, Yemen, and Gulf Nations

60. Lessons from the #EndSARS Movement in Nigeria

Author:: Olajumoke (Jumo) Ayandele
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: On 3 October 2020, in Nigeria, operatives of the Special Anti-Robbery Squad (SARS) allegedly shot a young man at Wetland Hotel in Ughelli, injuring him. This incident was filmed and went viral, sparking an outcry on social media against SARS using the hashtag #EndSARS. By 8 October, demonstrations associated with this hashtag had begun to increase in size and number throughout Nigeria, peaking at 26 demonstration events on 13 October (see figure below). On 20 October, Nigerian military forces fired live ammunition at #EndSARS demonstrators in Lagos who had sat down in the road to peacefully protest against police brutality, reportedly killing at least 15. Young Nigerians are still reeling from the shock and after effects of the government’s heavy-handed response. Military officials have rejected claims that they killed unarmed protesters, alleging that soldiers had only fired blank bullets (BBC, 15 November 2020). The reaction has widened the distrust between young Nigerians and the government. This analysis identifies three lessons from the #EndSARS movement and highlights what the government’s response means for Nigeria’s fragile political stability and security.
Topic:: Security, Social Movement, Political stability, Protests, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: Africa and Nigeria

61. A National Emergency: How COVID-19 is Fueling Unrest in the US

Author:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: In March 2020, the Trump administration declared the novel coronavirus pandemic a national emergency in the United States. Although the US is home to just 4% of the world’s population, it now accounts for a quarter of all confirmed COVID-19 cases and a fifth of the death toll (New York Times, 2021). A year on, more than half a million people have died of COVID-19 across the country (CDC, 2021), and the new Biden administration has officially extended the national emergency beyond its March 2021 expiration date (CNBC, 25 February 2021). The health crisis has exacerbated existing inequalities and political faultlines in the US, contributing to a surge of unrest throughout the country. New analysis of ACLED data — now extended to the beginning of 2020 — reveals the full scope of the pandemic’s impact on American protest patterns for the first time.
Topic:: Domestic Politics, Pandemic, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

62. Naxal-Maoist Insurgency Trends in India During the Coronavirus Pandemic

Author:: Aastha Kaul
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: As countries continue to contend with the COVID-19 pandemic, it has become clear that its impact extends far beyond public health and safety, with the ability to shape political behavior and conflict. The interplay between disease and disorder is perhaps most visible in India, which has been one of the nations worst affected by the coronavirus. Following the onset of the pandemic, ACLED records an escalation of conflict in Jammu & Kashmir (for more see this spotlight infographic from ACLED’s COVID-19 Disorder Tracker) as well as a new wave of political unrest in the northeast (for more see this ACLED report on political violence in northeast India). In contrast, ACLED data show a decline in events in 2020 related to the Naxal-Maoist insurgency, one of India’s oldest post-independence conflicts. The restrictions surrounding the coronavirus pandemic impacted the Naxal-Maoist insurgency in two significant ways. First, the lockdown worsened already strained supply chains, preventing cadres from accessing vital resources such as rations and weaponry. Second, dwindling supplies subsequently affected operational capacity as insurgents were unable to effectively carry out their annual tactical counter-offensive campaign (TCOC). The combination of these factors has led to an overall decline of Naxal-Maoist activity in 2020, compared to the year prior. A comparative analysis of ACLED data for 2019 and 2020 reveals these trends and offer insights into the changing nature of the conflict.
Topic:: Political Violence, Insurgency, Conflict, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

63. Aden Security

Author:: Matthias Sulz
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:: This series maps the activity of little-known military brigades and armed groups proliferating throughout the conflict in Yemen. Mapping these actors has become relevant for understanding future trajectories of violence in Yemen as some of them have developed significant combat capabilities with shifting allegiances. While some follow their own interests, others have clear allegiances to the internationally recognized government or the Southern Transitional Council. As with actors in other conflict scenarios, such allegiances are, however, never set in stone. Rather, allegiances are a fluid process, shifting due to changes of outside circumstances (e.g. the behavior of a patron) or battlefield victories. In order to be better prepared for these changes, this series maps the activity of such military brigades and armed groups — some of them have become relevant already, while others may see their turn towards increased relevance in the future.
Topic:: Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Middle East and Yemen

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS