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Begin New Search Content Type Commentary and Analysis Author Luca Nevola Publication Year within 3 Years Publication Year within 10 Years

1. The Muqawama and Its Enemies: Shifting Patterns in Iran-Backed Shiite Militia Activity in Iraq

Author:
Luca Nevola and Miran Feyli
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The post-2003 security landscape in Iraq has seen the proliferation of dozens of militias identifying with Shiite Islam. Many of these actors are integrated into the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) – a paramilitary group established in 2014 to counter the Islamic State and later incorporated into the Iraqi state forces – and have strong relations with the Iranian regime and its security apparatus.1 These Iran-backed groups include prominent militias such as Kataib Hizbullah (KH), Asaib Ahl al-Haqq (AAH), and Haraka Hizbullah al-Nujaba (HHN), as well as a number of recently formed ‘facade groups’ like Ashab al-Kahf and Qasim al-Jabarin. Such facade groups are generally assumed to operate on behalf of KH, AAH, and HHN (see graph below). These groups are notable for portraying themselves as the Muqawama, or the ‘resistance’ against the United States and other foreign forces.
Topic:
Security, Non State Actors, Armed Forces, and Militias
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

2. Beyond Riyadh: Houthi Cross-Border Aerial Warfare 2015-2022

Author:
Luca Nevola
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 25 March 2022, the Houthis launched a large-scale attack on Saudi Arabia using a combination of loitering munitions, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. This coordinated attack targeted oil refineries and energy infrastructure across Saudi territory, from Asir to the Eastern Province, and even threatened the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Jeddah. Yet, it turned out to be the last major gasp of the aerial war between Riyadh and the Sanaa-based government that had started in 2015. A few days later, on 2 April, a United Nations (UN)-mediated truce came into effect, which lasted until 2 October and, as of the time of writing, has effectively terminated Houthi cross-border attacks into Saudi and Emirati territories. In the current situation of relative stability, Saudi-Houthi talks are ongoing to renew and expand the truce.
Topic:
Deterrence, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia

3. Religious Repression and Disorder Snapshots: 2020- 2021

Author:
Luca Nevola
Publication Date:
02-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
ACLED-Religion’s incorporation of historical back-coding data for 2020 adds over 6,000 events across the seven countries covered by the pilot project: Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Palestine, and Yemen. The new data include nearly 2,400 harassment events, nearly 700 demonstration events, over 2,150 political violence events, and over 750 strategic developments. The back-coding release expands ACLED-Religion’s full dataset to nearly 13,000 total events from the beginning of 2020 to the present. This report identifies key trends in religious disorder and repression in the seven countries covered by ACLED-Religion across 2020 and 2021. The report is organized around two sections. The first section examines overall patterns of repression and disorder, showing how macro-trends are driven by surges of events in specific countries. It also provides a focus on protest events and targets of religious repression. The second section explores potential triggers of religious repression, addressing the role of COVID-19 protocols and religious commemorations.
Topic:
Religion, Repression, Data, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East and North Africa

4. Violence in Yemen During the UN-Mediated Truce: April-October 2022

Author:
Raed Khelifi, Emile Roy, and Luca Nevola
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
On 2 October 2022, the UN-mediated truce in Yemen came to an end as the warring sides rejected a proposal presented by UN Special Envoy for Yemen Hans Grundberg to extend and expand the agreement (Office of the Special Envoy of the Secretary-General for Yemen, 2 October 2022). The truce had first come into effect on 2 April 2022 and was renewed twice for two-month periods, in June and August. Among other things, it provided for a halt to offensive military operations by both the Houthi and Internationally Recognized Government (IRG)1 sides. Overall, the six months of truce brought several tangible benefits to the Yemeni population, including improved access to humanitarian aid (ReliefWeb, 31 May 2022), greater economic opportunities (ACAPS, 17 May 2022), and a significant reduction in violence and casualties countrywide. ACLED’s report on the first two months of truce found that April and May 2022 saw the lowest levels of reported fatalities from political violence in Yemen since January 2015. This trend continued for the whole truce period: reported fatalities from political violence between April and September 2022 were consistently lower than any other month since January 2015.
Topic:
United Nations, Violence, Houthis, Armed Conflict, and Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP)
Political Geography:
Middle East and Yemen

5. Religious Repression During Ashura Season: Cases from Bahrain, Iraq, and Yemen

Author:
Luca Nevola
Publication Date:
12-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Religious celebrations can function as catalysts for religious repression, carrying a potential for state abuses and minority contestation (Hintz & Quatrini, 2020). A focus on Ashura celebrations demonstrates how regimes and believers can choose to respond to this Shiite festival depending on their respective religious affiliations, and how these responses can raise the risk for certain forms of religious repression. On Ashura, which recurs on the tenth day of the Islamic month of Muharram, millions of Shiite believers across the globe mourn the death of Imam Husayn by reviving the events of Kerbala and staging mourning processions (Nikjoo et al., 22 March 2020).1 Commemorations continue for 40 days after Ashura, culminating with the Arbaeen walking pilgrimage, in which mourners walk to the Imam Husayn Shrine in Kerbala, Iraq. In 2021, ACLED-Religion records a 50% increase in religious repression in the week preceding Muharram (31 July-6 August) compared to the week prior, and a further 58% increase during the first week of Muharram (7-13 August). Notably, most Ashura-related2 repression events are concentrated in just three countries covered by the pilot project — Iraq, Yemen, and Bahrain (see figure below)3 — that have in common the presence of a large Shiite population. In these three countries, Ashura-related repression accounts for 46% of all religious repression events during ‘Ashura season’ (9 August-27 September).4 Across all seven countries covered by ACLED-Religion, Ashura-related repression accounts for around 20% of religious repression events during the Ashura season.
Topic:
Religion, Minorities, Repression, and Shia Islam
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, and Bahrain

6. Religious Repression During Ramadan: Cases from Yemen, Bahrain, Iraq, Egypt, and Palestine

Author:
Luca Nevola
Publication Date:
08-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Most religious holidays and festivals carry a potential for state repression and minority contestation. This is explained by three main factors: firstly, celebrations serve as a focal point in heightening identity salience; secondly, during major festivals, worshipers tend to defy state orders; thirdly, religious celebrations and rituals can disguise political claims and work as sites of minority contestation and resistance (Hintz & Quatrini, 2020; Scott, 1992). All these general assumptions apply to the Islamic holy month of Ramadan. During Ramadan, Muslims aim to “be pious, moral, and disciplined” (Schielke, 2009). However, a heightened emphasis on religious practice also tends to fuel sectarian cleavages and state repression. In comparison to previous months of 2021, ACLED-Religion data show an overall increase of repression events focused on Muslim religious practices during Ramadan, which ran from 12 April to 12 May (see figure below). This upward trend is underpinned by a large number of repression events specifically targeting Ramadan-related religious practices1 in five countries: Yemen, Bahrain, Iraq, Palestine, and Egypt.2 Overall, Ramadan-related repression accounts for 60% of all repression events targeting religious practices during the Islamic holy month.3 The trend can be ascribed to four main drivers: state suppression of Ramadan-related rituals for sectarian reasons; enforcement of COVID-19 restrictions; interaction of Islamic and non-Islamic celebrations; and politicization of religious practice.
Topic:
Religion, Minorities, Repression, and Ramadan
Political Geography:
Middle East

7. ‘Commanding Right and Forbidding Wrong:’ The Imposition of Islamic Morality in Iran, Yemen, Egypt, and Iraq

Author:
Luca Nevola
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Religious repression is often targeted at individuals and groups that express religious behaviors or religious affiliation (Fox, 2016; Sarkissian, 26 May 2015). However, repressive acts can also be directed at imposing a coercer’s religious values regardless of the victim’s religious affiliation (or lack thereof). ACLED-Religion captures this type of religious repression under the ‘imposition’ religious context (ACLED-Religion Codebook, 2021). Critically, religious imposition does not delineate specific repression victims. Indeed, a perpetrator can impose their values on believers of a different religion, on “religiously unaffiliated” or non-practicing individuals (Pew Research Center, 18 December 2012), and on individuals practicing the perpetrator’s religion differently.
Topic:
Islam, Religion, Violence, and Repression
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, and Egypt

8. Religious Repression and Disorder: Egypt, Israel, and Palestine

Author:
Luca Nevola
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
The ACLED-Religion pilot project collects real-time data on religious repression and disorder in the Middle East and North Africa. This spotlight report analyzes key trends from the latest data on Egypt, Israel, and Palestine. For more, download the full ACLED-Religion dataset or explore the data through the interactive ACLED-Religion dashboard.
Topic:
Religion, Repression, Sexuality, Morality, and Civil Unrest
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Egypt

9. Religious Repression and Disorder: Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, and Yemen

Author:
Luca Nevola
Publication Date:
06-2021
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED)
Abstract:
Bahrain is an island kingdom ruled by the Sunni Muslim Al Khalifa royal family. The Al Khalifa regime is accused of systematically discriminating against the country’s Shiite community, which is estimated to account for 60% to 70% of Bahrain’s Muslim population (BICI, 10 December 2011). Discriminatory practices affect Shiite believers across a wide array of domains, including employment, freedom of expression, and political rights (USCIRF, April 2020). The Shiite community faces exclusion from the military and security apparatuses (CSIS, 9 December 2016), the arbitrary revocation of Bahraini citizenship (OHCHR, 18 April 2019), and the denial of medical care for prisoners (Amnesty International, 28 September 2018). The sectarian divide in Bahrain is stoked by political tensions. The monarchy sees the Shiite popular majority as a threat, and has historically used alleged ties between Shiite opposition groups and the Iranian regime to justify the systematic denial of political rights. As demonstrated by the “Bandargate” scandal (the public revelation of a report on the regime’s plan to marginalize the Shiite community), the Al Khalifa have also pursued a policy of ‘Sunnization’ of the Bahraini population (Le Monde Diplomatique, 19 October 2006). However, the repression of the Shiite community is not only driven by political considerations: Shiite identity is also targeted for purely sectarian reasons.
Topic:
Religion, Minorities, Discrimination, Conflict, Repression, and Shia Islam
Political Geography:
Middle East and Bahrain