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Begin New Search Political Geography Europe Content Type Journal Article Author Hanna Pashkova

1. Ukraine’s European Integration: The Russian Factor

Author:
Hanna Pashkova and Halyna Balanovych
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The pace and effectiveness of Kyiv’s European integration course depends on many internal and external factors. The key ones being the political will of Ukrainian government, ability to implement and dedication to real pro-European changes in the country that would be tangible for Ukrainian citizens. This is the internal factor that is the main issue on the path to integration into the European community. That being said, European integration is a two-way street. The quality and level of Kyiv-Brussels relations to a great extent depend on the position and engagement of the European side, including EU’s internal processes and trends, which are rather complex, controversial and sometimes centrifugal in their nature at the moment. We are talking about an increased sentiment of restoring partnerships with Russia in the “business as usual” format inside the EU’s business and political circles. Russian hybrid aggression is a dangerous factor. For the Russian leadership that views post-Soviet countries as its zone of “privileged” interest, an independent Ukraine headed towards Europe and NATO is both a challenge and a threat. Firstly, Kyiv’s successful European integration is an incentive for other post-Soviet countries to step up, which means a failure for Russia’s plans of “forced” reintegration of Eurasian countries. Secondly, Kyiv achieving success in its European project is a model for Russian citizens and a convincing evidence of the inability of Russia’s authoritarian regime to offer an attractive democratic model of social development. This is why the Russian regime is using all of its available “hybrid warfare” to prevent Ukraine from integrating into Europe – from political and diplomatic pressure, economic blockade, information warfare to military intervention – occupation of Crimea and Donbas. Currently, Ukraine is a training ground and a testing area for Russia’s massive purposeful expansion into the EU territory. In particular, this includes discrediting the unifying European values and institutions, disorienting public opinion, interfering with elections, formation of pro-Russian lobby within the European establishment, support of radical movements, etc. The goal of this influence is to disintegrate the EU, reform Europe’s political system in line with the Russian scenario. An important factor is the EU member states’, institutions’ and other countries’ assistance and solidarity with Ukraine, as well as sanctions introduced by the West. Regrettably, over the period of almost six years, the sanctions have failed to stop Russia’s war against Ukraine, failed to change the nature of Kremlin’s aggressive foreign policy. Yet it is certainly crucial that the EU and other countries uphold a common course of conduct in regard to Russia, maintain and strengthen the “sanctions frontline”. At the same time, assessing the current confrontation in the notional Ukraine-EU-Russia “triangle”, it is worth noting that these problems have been temporarily overshadowed by the global COVID-19 pandemic. On the one hand, the pandemic has affected internal and external priorities of different countries, has shaken the global economy. On the other – it has “hit the pause button” for Ukraine’s European integration, made adjustments to EU-Ukraine Association Agreement implementation plans. Obviously, the problems that have been temporarily postponed will later resurface again – this time in the new circumstances and in the new form.
Topic:
International Relations, European Union, Conflict, Regional Integration, and Integration
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

2. The War in Donbas: Realities and Prospects of Settlement

Author:
Hanna Pashkova and Halyna Balanovych
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The first section looks into some geopolitical aspects of the Russian intervention in Donbas; reviews goals and peculiarities of Russian aggression in eastern Ukraine; studies the role and impact of the West in resolving the conflict; and assesses the “Donbas” policy of Ukraine. The second section describes the overall trends and processes in occupied territories in the military, economic, energy, political, information and environmental spheres. The third section provides possible scenarios of developments in the conflict zone and assesses chances and prospects of deploying the UN peacekeeping mission to Donbas. The fourth section offers conclusions, as well as a set of proposals for resolving the conflict in the East of Ukraine. The first
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, Military Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Donbas

3. Root Causes of the Non-Enforcement of the Domestic Judicial Decisions in Ukraine

Author:
Alla Chernova, Halyna Balanovych, and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The study was carried out based on the “Methodology for international and/or national expert analysis to determine the main reasons for the non-enforcement of decisions rendered by the domestic courts of Ukraine” within the Council of Europe’s project “Supporting Ukraine in the execution of judgements of the European Court of Human Rights”. This study was particularly related to the devastatingly low levels of the enforcement of judgments and, accordingly, the need to improve the situation in this area. The project implementation revealed the root causes of the non-enforcement of three categories of court decisions (social disputes, labour disputes and decisions concerning legal entities falling under the responsibility of the State or the State itself), as well as other problems linked to the statistics and the register of court decisions The first problem was associated with the impossibility of finding necessary cases. The experts identified systemic flaws in record-keeping and data comparability of the Unified State Register of Court Decisions (USRCD) and the Unified State Register of the Enforcement Proceedings with respect to all these categories of judgments. For example, of 2,760 court decisions in “social disputes” selected for analysis, the experts could only find 2,254 judgements in the USRCD under the provided requisites. The analysis revealed systemic violations of the relevant legislation, such as illegal reduction of payments, significant narrowing of the scope of plaintiffs’ rights by bylaws, misapplication of the budget legislation by the authorised government bodies. Speaking of labour disputes, the analysis covered 1,505 unexecuted court decisions. Causes for the non-enforcement in this category of decisions included the lack of necessary state funding (lack of budgetary allocations) at the time of the matter of controversy leading to the state’s failure to fulfil its obligations, improper exercise of powers by government authorities and state-owned enterprises, flaws in normative regulation of labour relationships, repeated reorganisations of one and the same enterprises leading to the interpretation confusion of these procedures and their improper execution. As for the decisions concerning legal entities falling under the responsibility of the State or the State itself, 250 of 14,324 court decisions of this category were subjected to expert analysis. It revealed inefficiency of the State Execution Service in recovering such debts, the improper performance of duties by the public executors, unlawful assistance to the debtor or delays in the enforcement of court decisions, obstruction of the plaintiffs’ right to use the mechanisms stipulated by the Law “On State Guarantees for the Enforcement of Judgements”. The study has also analysed the national legislation governing the system of bodies and the procedure for enforcement of judgments. Therefore, if taken into consideration by the relevant authorities, the project results presented in this publication can contribute to the understanding of current situation with the enforcement of judgements and developing approaches to their better execution.
Topic:
Labor Issues, Courts, Judiciary, and European Court of Human Rights (ECHR)
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

4. Analysis of Constitutional Changes Concerning Justice

Author:
Valeria Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
06-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Independent judiciary is an essential attribute of a democratic government and an important factor in establishing the Rule of Law. Events of the late 2013 and early 2014 confirmed the presence of serious problems in the Ukrainian judiciary. Not only it was inable to resist the arbitrary rule but also condoned and encouraged manifestations of autocracy. This objectively angered the society, which was receptive to immediate measures aimed at restoring confidence in the judiciary and the right to a fair trial. As these measures failed to deliver tangible positive results, the judiciary remained disoriented and demoralised. The need to reform the constitutional basis of the functioning of the judiciary became apparent. The Constitutional Commission established by the President of Ukraine has developed draft amendments to the Constitution (concerning justice), which on 2 June 2016 were adopted by the Parliament. Implementation of constitutional changes through necessary regulatory mechanisms was translated into action by adoption of several important laws – “On the Judiciary and the Status of Judges”, “On the High Council of Justice”, “On the Constitutional Court of Ukraine”, “On Agencies and Persons Performing Compulsory Enforcement of Court Decisions and Decisions of other Authorities”, and “On Amendments to the Commercial Procedure Code of Ukraine, the Civil Procedure Code of Ukraine, the Code of Administrative Justice of Ukraine and other Legislative Acts”. The process of implementing amendments to the Constitution concerning justice and the status of the Constitutional Court implies introduction of their provisions and legal mechanisms in the practice of establishing the judiciary bodies, appointment of judges and improvements in legal proceedings based on the new framework. The Constitutional Court, in turn, should gain genuine social recognition and respect by improving important elements of its status through exemplary adherence to its constitutional powers. In these processes, it is vital to promptly identify problems linked to inadequacy and unconstitutionality of certain provisions of the above laws, as well as the means of their application. This analytical report and all the materials presented in this publication are part of these efforts.
Topic:
Law, Public Opinion, Reform, Constitution, Justice, and Judiciary
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

5. Ukraine on the Eve of Election Year: Public Demand, Positions of Political Actors, Outline of the New Government

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Year 2019 is not going to be easy. Apart from challenges caused by Russian military aggression against Ukraine, the presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for March and October will be the main internal political factors further aggravating the situation in the country. The 2019 elections will take place in a challenging environment. First of all, this concerns the ongoing war with Russia, which will try to influence the elections results in efforts to bring loyal political leaders and parties to power in Ukraine. Other negative aspects include the society’s disappointment with current government, coupled with low public support of its institutions, individual political leaders and pro-government political forces. The nature and results of the upcoming election will be further affected by the division of supporters of Ukraine’s European path and the political forces declaring the same course into two camps, depending on their attitudes towards the current government. The rise of radicalism in the activities of some opposition parties, as well as significant growth of populism are quite alarming trends in the Ukrainian politics. Holding both elections in one year with brief interval between them is likely to escalate political struggle, which may result in reduced efficiency of the government with further suspension of the reform processes in anticipation of successive change of the President, the Parliament and the Cabinet of Ministers. The results of 2019 elections should give answers to the following key questions: will Ukraine continue its European integration course approved by the people of Ukraine during the Revolution of Dignity? Will newly elected institutions continue reforms? Which political leaders and forces will assume responsibility for the reforms and their results? Answers to these questions primarily depend on the Ukrainian voters, as well as on candidates and political forces competing for public confidence. The Razumkov Centre’s project “Ukraine on the Eve of Election Year: Public Demand, Outline of the New Government, and the Future of Reforms” aims at exploring current sentiments of citizens who will cast ballots on the one hand, and analysing readiness of political actors and suitability of their political “supply” for society’s “demand” on the other. By doing so, the project is set to outline the new Ukrainian government and its potential policies.
Topic:
Government, Public Opinion, Elections, Domestic Politics, and Campaigning
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

6. Basic Principles and Means of the Formation of a Common Identity of Ukrainian Citizens

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The materials presented in this issue are a result of the third stage of the Razumkov Centre’s project “Formation of a Common Ukrainian National Identity under New Conditions: Features, Prospects and Challenges”. From the results of the previous stages of the project we were able to form a comprehensive picture of various identity aspects of Ukrainian citizens, their hierarchy and interrelations and to identify features determined by the impact of national, linguistic, cultural, age and other factors. A particular task of the project’s third stage was the research focus on basic components of identity: the system of values inherent to the citizens of Ukraine, their features and regional differences. The struggle to promote European values in Ukraine was the driving force of the Revolution of Dignity; and the continuing confrontation of Ukraine with Russian aggression represents a struggle of different value-based systems. Establishing common values as the basis for a common national identity is a critical task for consolidation of Ukrainian society. The results of the public opinion survey conducted by the Razumkov Centre in March 2017 and published herein make it possible not only to understand value orientations of Ukrainian society, but also to compare them with values of citizens of some European countries as well as values of Russian citizens. This was made possible by having the Razumkov Centre’s survey include the same questions used in the international comparative World Values Survey research. The results of the study confirm that formation of the value system of Ukrainians and their identity is affected by complex social and political processes – the military conflict with Russia, protracted economic crisis, and political instability. This leads to a conflicted and internally contradictory nature of these value orientations. Positive trends may be considered to include the predominance of a common civil identity, an increase in Ukrainian national identification. On the other hand, there is a concern about the low level of trust among citizens of Ukraine in other members of society and government institutions and reliance on a “strong leader”. Another task was to determine the key components of state policy on the formation of a common national identity in terms of its content, institutional and organisational elements. For this purpose the Razumkov Centre conducted the expert survey of 106 experts: representatives of national and local government, research and higher educational institutions, political parties and non-governmental organisations. Survey results demonstrated an understanding among the expert community of the procedural nature of a national identity formation and, at the same time, the need for targeted government actions in this area, including the development and implementation of the appropriate national policy. To gain a more comprehensive approach to formation of a common national identity, the Razumkov Center has conducted interviews with leading national scientists and experts in philosophy, political science, sociology, ethnic policy, linguistics, and cultural studies. Based on the results of all stages of the project, the Razumkov Centre has prepared an updated draft Conceptual Approach to the formation of a common national identity of Ukrainian citizens. The Razumkov Centre believes that this document could be the basis for further discussion, elaboration, adoption and implementation by the government. “Hybrid” war waged against Ukraine makes these steps especially urgent.
Topic:
Citizenship, Ethnicity, Language, Nation-State, and Identity
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

7. Political Culture and Parliamentarism in Ukraine: Current State and Main Problems

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The Revolution of Dignity, countering Russia’s aggression and the controversial, at times painful for society, process of reform implementation in different sectors have significantly aggravated the problem of efficiency of people’s interests representation mechanisms operated by government bodies, as well as the issue of people exercising their constitutional right to participate in the management of public affairs. The evolving relationship between government and society attests, on yet another occasion in the modern history of Ukraine, to the exact same phenomenon: the period of society’s enthusiasm, active, even sacrificial participation in political processes, and high public expectations change to disappointment, despair and apathy threatening to turn into aggression. Electing candidates, who in the moment of elections seemed to match public expectations for government representatives, changes to negative, even hostile attitude with time. The level of trust in elected higher government institutions in such periods drops from highest possible to minimal levels, as it happened in 2005-2009 and 2014-2017. Today, the growing activism of civil society and manifestations of its major creative potential after the second Maidan are combined with the risks and dangers that this energy might become destructive for democracy. This problem has two components: special aspects of people’s political culture, on the one hand, and the efficiency of mechanisms for implementing their political will, representative institutions – on the other. Without understanding these aspects, their mutual influence and correlation, the process of improving democracy institution in Ukraine will keep going on according to the “trial and error” scenario, while political system operation remains doomed to regular crises, which might turn into more “revolutions” at extreme points. Democratic system stability today is impossible without further constructive (not just protesting) participation of citizens equipped with knowledge of political institutions and skills to participate in them. The main goal of the Razumkov Centre’s Project “Political Culture and Parliamentarism in Ukraine: Ways to Improve Representative Democracy” is to use the study of the current state and special aspects of Ukrainian citizens’ political culture, in particular, their attitude to interest representation institutions, and analysis of the most topical problems influencing the efficiency of operation of the highest representative and the only legislative body in Ukraine – the Verkhovna Rada, in order to create recommendations for the development of an adequate policy for citizens’ political culture formation and optimisation of political institutions with the purpose of raising the quality of democratic representation.
Topic:
Citizenship, Domestic Politics, Political Culture, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

8. Russia's "Hybrid" War -- Challenge and Threat for Europe

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2016
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine that started in February 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and is still going on in Donbas, demonstrated critical vulnerability of the Western world to Kremlin’s “hybrid warfare” policy. The West, divided and burdened with internal problems (“migrant crisis”, Brexit) and external challenges (D. Trump “effect”, Syrian war), is experiencing a critical deficit of unity and coordination of actions toward Russia, lack of public awareness as to the nature and goals of Putin’s regime, fears of nuclear confrontation with Russia. Meanwhile, the far-right political movements, Euroscepticism, populism, isolationism – i.e., “LePenisation” of Europe – may gain ground after the elections in France and Germany. (Quite telling in this context have been the recent elections in Bulgaria and Moldova, where pro-Russian socialists won). All of this is happening amid total depreciation of global and regional security structures, and is threatening not only with escalation of conflicts on the continent, but also with destruction of the European community. The Western world has not generated adequate and effective means, mechanisms and policies to counter Russia’s hybrid expansion. On the contrary, there is an increasing threat of disintegration of a single “sanctions front”, which Kremlin will view with impunity and encouragement for further active actions. The conflict in Syria has proven that Kremlin’s imperial policy is not limited to the post-Soviet space, and Ukraine is just a springboard for further expansion. In the past three years, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has become deep-rooted and long-term causing tectonic changes in relations between Kyiv and Moscow. Russia’s aggression has inflicted unprecedented human, territorial, economic losses on Ukraine, and from the entire range of bilateral relations (not to mention the war itself), for a long time to come has left Ukraine only the format of confrontational coexistence with Russia – limited, forced, and cold – depending on the unfolding situation. The Russia-Ukraine hybrid war is not a local, peripheral conflict. Kremlin’s aggression poses a threat not only to Ukraine’s statehood and sovereignty, but also to the unity of the EU and, in general, to the political structure of Europe. Therefore, finding adequate, effective forms of response, developing a common policy of countering Russia’s expansion is critically important.
Topic:
Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Hybrid Warfare, and Expansion
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

9. New Energy Strategy of Ukraine Until 2020: Security, Energy Efficiency, Competition

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Security and Defence Quarterly
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The proposed “New Energy Strategy of Ukraine until 2020: Security, Energy Efficiency, Competition” (hereinafter referred to as NES 2020) is a comprehensive document for reforming the energy complex of Ukraine for the period until 2020. At the same time, NES 2020 defines, above all, the goals and algorithms for energy sector development, and thus will also remain relevant for creating further long-term strategies and sectoral programmes. Target figures mentioned in the document only demonstrate the general trajectory of energy resources demand and offer development. These figures are to have a more expanded and detailed presentation in the developed action plan of the CMU for implementation of NES 2020. Usually, a strategy, being a document that is the result of target-based programme planning and forecasting in a certain sphere of activity, covers a longer period of time – 10-20 years. However, serious challenges currently faced by Ukraine as a state, given the fact of external aggression and the burden of unresolved issues accumulated during the period of independence with reforming of the national energy complex, require a document with such status for a shorter period of time. The NES 2020 stipulates that by the end of its implementation term the restructuring of the energy complex of Ukraine will be complete, including its transition to modern market models of operation, and that the main safety and energy efficiency targets will be achieved. After 2020, Ukrainian energy sector will move on to a new level of its development – complete integration with the EU energy sector and innovative rebuilding. Thus, implementation of tasks in the energy sector after 2020, will require rather different approaches than those defined by NES 2020, which means – development of a new strategic document. During the development of NES 2020, proposals were considered regarding the content of the suggested document from such respected international organisations, as the International Energy Agency, Energy Community Secretariat, United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, World Bank, Delegation of the European Union to Ukraine, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, etc. At the final stage of public consultations regarding NES 2020 draft, an expert discussion was organised, which involved representatives of leading scientific research institutions, companies working in the field, international organisations and NGOs, domestic and foreign experts, media, and based on results of which, the final draft of NES 2020 was created. This document was developed by the Razumkov Centre and other leading nongovernmental, public organisations and scientific research institutions of Ukraine, with support of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Committee on Fuel and Energy Complex, Nuclear Policy and Nuclear Safety. Therefore, the draft of NES 2020 can be rightfully viewed as a result of joint effort of Ukraine’s expert community and reputable international institutions.
Topic:
Security, Economics, Politics, Strategic Competition, and Energy
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

10. Law Enforcement System in Ukraine: Status, Problems, Prospects for Reform

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The year 2013 saw the beginning of a unique period in the history of an independent Ukraine. The victory of the Euromaidan, which seemed to be a successful completion of the Revolution of Dignity, in reality was merely the first step on the path of revolutionary transformation of all aspects in the life of Ukrainian society and state. Security issues are of high priority in the ambitious plans of reforms initiated by the Ukrainian government: “The security vector is our certainty about our tomorrow, being peaceful and happy. It is our certainty of justice and inevitable punishment for each crime. Our certainty that no person is unfairly convicted. The certainty of guaranteed security of investments and property”.1 Guaranteeing the required level of domestic security, primarily the security of a person and a citizen, largely depends on the capability of the law enforcement agencies to perform the functions entrusted to them by national law, and their ability to serve the society and not the government or their own selfish interests. In the system of functions delegated by the state to law enforcement agencies, the policing function has a special role, since the police, in addition to being the most numerous structure, is on the “frontier”, where a citizen may receive protection from, or be persecuted by, the state. For this reason, police reform is receiving considerable attention from the Ukrainian government, society and Ukraine’s international partners. The overwhelming majority of police officers also acknowledge the need for radical change, being dissatisfied with working conditions, level of social security and the negative view of their work on the part of society. Analysis of the current reform efforts leads to the conclusion that, despite the presence of many extraordinary aspects and significant positive differences, they still have many features typical of the prior unsuccessful reform attempts. The most important reasons impeding the implementation of the generally positive declarations and concept documents include the lack of political will as well as the pursuit of political and private ends that have nothing in common with the national interests or international standards. Taking into account our own errors is as important for success as studying the diverse international experience. The lack of coordination of reforms from a single centre, despite the formal presence of the respective structure, inefficient use of the tightly limited resources and attempts to substitute minor changes (restructuring, personnel rotations, name changes, etc.) for a true transformation – all of this has been seen on multiple occasions before. The lack of political will is most often mentioned by experts and community activists looking for answers to the questions why the reforms are advancing so slowly or why the results claimed by the politicians remain hardly noticeable for civilians. Society and the entities being reformed may become more optimistic about the success of the reforms if the Government sincerely demonstrates its interest in developing a European model of the police service, and, most importantly, proves it by real actions. The active participation by community activists, non-governmental organisations, and international partners in the reform processes are important but merely auxiliary factors. The duration and resources of a powerful international support are limited and directly depend on the demonstration of practical results. The analytical report is intended to make an intellectual contribution to the joint effort of developing the Ukrainian law enforcement agencies, whose performance is evaluated not by statistics or the opinion of the government, but by the satisfaction of society with the quality of the respective services, the citizens’ feeling of safety and justice and their level of trust in and respect for those who protect them.
Topic:
Governance, Law Enforcement, Public Opinion, Reform, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

11. Party System of Ukraine Before and After Maidan: Changes, Trends, Public Demand

Author:
Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
Mass protests of citizens against the сriminal, authoritarian regime of V. Yanukovych, known as the Revolution of Dignity, with its epicentre the Maidan was to be a turning point in the modern history of Ukraine, These events differed significantly in scale and consequences – from the final enforcement by Ukraine of its geopolitical choice, beginning of practical implementation of the course of European integration through reforms in all areas of public life to Russian military aggression, thousands of casualties and the loss of a part of the national economy and sovereign territory. The events of 2013-2014 had a significant impact on the political system in Ukraine. After the fall of V. Yanukovych’s regime and the former president’s fleeing to Russia, the 2004 Constitution of Ukraine was reenacted. All supreme state institutions underwent renewal. The new President and the Verkhovna Rada were legitimised by special elections and a new Cabinet of Ministers was formed. The process began of reforming the constitutional principles of government organisation in relation to its various branches and levels. Ukraine’s party system, which is an important element of the political system in general, also underwent significant changes. The political parties that belonged to the pro-presidential coalition before Maidan (Party of Regions and Communist Party of Ukraine) were removed from power and actually descended from the political arena. A significant reformatting of the political forces representing the new government took place. This part of the political spectrum is represented both by the “old” (“Batkivshchyna”, “Svoboda”) and the “new” parties that entered the political arena and were formed during Maidan or after it (“Samopomich”, Radical Party of Oleh Lyashko, “Right Sector”, “People’s Front”, Petro Poroshenko Bloc). The post-election period was marked by a heightened struggle not only between the new leading forces and the opposition, but also by competition and conflict between the political forces that in the period from November 2013 to February 2014 had acted as a “unified front”. The drastic changes in the party and political spectrum engendered confusion of the public electoral preferences, especially in the part that did not find any equivalent to their established sympathies among the new parties. There are still some free “political niches”, which can be claimed by new party structures. The data of public opinion surveys demonstrate that those political forces, which were enthusiastically received by society during the early parliamentary elections in October 2014, subsequently started losing their voter support. All this indicates that the party system of Ukraine is undergoing a transformation process, a process that apparently will continue at least until the next scheduled parliamentary elections. However, the development of Ukraine as a democratic European state requires an effective and representative political system, which is impossible without effective, institutionalised political parties.
Topic:
Social Movement, Reform, Domestic Politics, Protests, Political Parties, and Euromaidan Revolution
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

12. Prospects of Ukrainian-Russian Relations

Author:
Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2015
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
The “hybrid” war of Russia against Ukraine has continued since February 2014. To date, the multiple efforts of international diplomacy, unfortunately, have not resulted either in settlement or even in a “freeze” of the situation in eastern Ukraine. The previous Minsk Agreements adopted in September 2014 (Minsk Protocol and Minsk Memorandum) were disrupted and Russian aggression in Donbas continued. On 12 February 2015, the presidents of Ukraine, France, Germany, and Russia agreed on a new document, “Package of Measures for Implementation of the Minsk Agreements”, which envisaged conflict settlement by the end of 2015. However, implementation of these measures was postponed to 2016 and, given the course of events, has actually become a process which is difficult to forecast and which is indefinite in time.1 It should be noted that on the one hand, the situation in eastern Ukraine has not undergone significant changes for the better – hostilities are ongoing. There are persistent fundamental differences in the positions of the two sides, Ukraine and Russia, on conflict resolution. (In particular, implementation of the Minsk Agreements in line with the Russian scenario threatens to destabilise the internal situation in Ukraine and destroy its statehood.) On the other hand, the international situation is rapidly changing; we see further escalation of international terrorism (the terrorist attacks in Paris), the “migration crisis” in the EU, Russia’s military intervention in Syria, and the gaining momentum of the acute conflict of Moscow and Ankara. This dulls the perception of events in Donbas on the part of the international community, renders these events a somewhat “background” nature in the West, and urges attempts to “freeze” the situation there at any cost, including at the expense of Ukraine’s own interests. Meanwhile, Russia proceeds with military expansion in Donbas, aimed at the destruction of Ukrainian statehood, and now there is no reason to expect a change for the better in the Kremlin’s policy. Thus, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict (which has a regional and global dimension) acquires a long-term nature with recurrent escalation and unpredictable consequences. Russian aggression – the annexation of Crimea and the war in eastern Ukraine – has entailed profound changes in bilateral relations: (а) the legal framework of Kyiv and Moscow relations has been destroyed; (b) institutional mechanisms of state-to-state relations have been destroyed; (c) contacts at the highest level have become impossible, political and diplomatic relations have become confrontational; (d) Ukraine has suffered huge human, economic, and territorial losses; (e) an unprecedented curtailment of economic cooperation has taken place; (f) deep alienation between the peoples of Ukraine and Russia has emerged. The previous official ideology of “strategic partnership”, “fraternal peoples”, and “neighbourliness”, embedded in many joint agreements, has lost its sense.2 A new political-ideological reality has emerged in the relations between Russia and Ukraine. Therefore, a new assessment and review of the nature, ideology, and general institutional system of relations with Russia in key areas (politics, security, economy, energy, humanitarian sphere, etc.) is required, given that the main threat to Ukrainian statehood is the current government in place in the Russian Federation. There is a need to design a new conceptual model of coexistence with Putin’s Russia, which would reflect current realities and prospects of bilateral relations and would take into account the position of Western partner countries and international organisations. However, it is important to keep in mind at least two things. First, one should clearly distinguish the current Putin’s regime and the country of Russia as it is and its society. Second, in rebuffing Russian aggression, a strategic goal should be seen – to restore confidence and interest of the societies of both countries in peaceful coexistence and respect the right of each state to determine the state system in the country and its civilisation development vector.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Energy Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

13. Social Foundation for Middle Class Formation in Ukraine: Identification Criteria, Structure, Features

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
This issue of the National Security and Defence journal contains the results of studies of social groups in Ukraine’s modern society, which can be viewed as a prototype and a foundation for the future Ukrainian middle class in the classical sense. The journal contains two analytical reports. The first – “Middle Class in Ukraine: Life Values, Readiness for Association and Promotion of Democratic Norms and Standards”, prepared by Razumkov Centre experts on the basis of research, conducted by Centre’s Sociological Service, and namely, national surveys and focus group research. In this report, on the basis of self-definition and self-evaluation of respondents the following social class groups are being singled out: subjective middle class, “nucleus” and periphery of middle class, upper and lower classes; their comparative analysis is performed according to such parameters as understanding the main principles of democracy and social justice, attitude to participation in civic activity, level of internality/externality of these social class groups’ representatives, etc. On the basis of analysis, a conclusion is being made that according to these (and other) parameters, closest to the middle class notion in its classical sense are such groups as the “nucleus” of the middle class and the upper class. At the same time, currently, the level of trust of these groups in their fellow citizens and institutions, their readiness for regular (as opposed to ad hoc) participation in “the common cause” are insufficient for announcing the existence of an established middle class in Ukraine in its modern sense. The second – “Population with Medium Income as the Basis for Middle Class Formation in Ukraine” – prepared by the team of authors of M.V. Ptukha Institute for Demography and Social Studies on the basis of data from Household Living Conditions Survey performed by the State Statistics Service of Ukraine. Features, singled out on the basis of this data can be viewed as more objective than sociological survey results, which allows to define with more precision the socio-demographic and socio-economic portrait of a middle class representative (groups with medium income), characteristics of his behaviour in consumer market and his property ownership status, as compared to other society groups (distinguished on the basis of income). The report also provides an in-depth analysis of statistical indicators that characterise households with medium income, as well as a definition of their representatives’ key life values. The performed analysis provides a basis for conclusion that, currently, the population group with medium income, according to their assets, financial capacity, consumer behaviour, mindset and subjective evaluations, mostly does not meet the classical definition of the middle class as a special social group with specific functions in the society. At the same time, both reports have mentioned features that both groups under analysis possess, which are typical specifically for “classical” middle class. Thus, representatives of both groups have a high level of education and perform professional activity that requires high qualification, are permanently employed and provide for themselves and their families primarily with their labour income. (Although, most of them also accept social assistance, however, this is rather due to a flawed domestic social security system, which allows for receipt of such assistance by the non-poor). Characteristic of the middle class is the willingness of representatives of both groups to take responsibility for their own lives, their attitude to education, work, career, content of their leisure activities, etc. So, we can assume that both groups under analysis – the “nucleus” of the middle class and the “medium income population group”, have a certain development potential in the context of “classical” middle class formation. Currently, the main problem of both groups is the insufficient income – both from labour remuneration and business activity. Available income is mostly only enough to satisfy primary survival needs, to use certain paid educational and healthcare services for the entire family, rather than high-quality recreation. However, it is not enough to make savings, which would not only provide these groups’ representatives with a feeling of security in their position (including, social status and confidence in the future), but would also be a notable investment resource for the national economy. So, State Policy, and namely the income policy, the remuneration policy, the social policy, have to be aimed at supporting these social and social-professional groups that have the potential to develop into Ukrainian middle class. It is the support for formation of the middle class that is the most efficient way to fight poverty and to introduce democratic values, norms and standards into social, political and economic life of Ukraine, and to approximate the social structure of Ukrainian society to modern societies of developed countries.
Topic:
Democracy, Values, Norms, Middle Class, Society, and Activism
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

14. The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Current Situation, Consequences, Prospects

Author:
Valeriya Klymenko and Hanna Pashkova
Publication Date:
01-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
National Security and Defence
Institution:
Razumkov Centre
Abstract:
On 27 January 2015 the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine adopted the Resolution “On the Appeal of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine to the United Nations, European Parliament, Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe, NATO Parliamentary Assembly, OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, GUAM Parliamentary Assembly and national parliaments of the countries of the world on the recognition of the Russian Federation as an aggressor state”. It is stated in the document that “Ukraine remains the target of military aggression by the Russian Federation, which the latter carries out, among other things, by supporting, and providing supplies for large-scale terrorist attacks. … taking into account the provisions of the UN Charter and UN General Assembly Resolution 3314 ‘Definition of Aggression’ dated 14 December 1974, the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine recognises the Russian Federation as an Aggressor State…”.1 This Appeal defines the current situation and character of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, the reason and source for which is Russia’s expansionist policy in the post-Soviet area, which the Russian Federation, represented by its current leadership, considers its “zone of privileged interests”. This forms the basis for Russia’s hard pressure on Ukraine to integrate into Eurasian alliances under the auspices of the Russian Federation (RF), and blocking Kyiv’s course towards European and Euro-Atlantic integration. Such policy, as implemented by Russia since the beginning of 2000, did not involve establishing real partner relations between Moscow and Kyiv on the basis of parity and equality, – its goal was to turn Ukraine into a controlled state, which would operate in the framework of Russia’s policy. Russia’s geopolitical plans regarding Ukraine were ruined in February 2014. In return, Putin’s regime resorted to outright aggression against Ukraine – in March 2014 Crimea was annexed, later began the military expansion in Eastern Ukraine. This “undeclared” or “hybrid” war of Russia against Ukraine has now lasted for almost a year; during this war Ukraine has suffered large-scale human, territorial and economic losses. A critical outcome of this war is mutual estrangement of both countries’ societies. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is not a “local”, “peripheral” event, – it has regional and global dimension, and contains challenges and threats to the global security system. Annexation of Crimea, the situation in Eastern Ukraine are turning into a large-scale “frozen conflict”, which is a threat to security and stability not only on the European continent, but in the world at large. Leading Western countries and international organisations have not recognised the annexation of Crimea, thus, demonstrating political and diplomatic solidarity with Ukraine; have supported Ukraine in its battle against Russian aggression in Donbas. Ukraine has received considerable external financial and material-technical support. “Restraining” sanctions against Russia have been implemented. Currently, Ukraine is in the epicentre of critical West-Russia confrontation, which is characterised by an unprecedented loss of mutual trust. Ukraine-Russia relations are in a critical and unpredictable state. The political and diplomatic confrontation is ongoing; fundamental agreements and arrangements have been violated; the system of institutional interstate relations has been practically shattered; confrontation in the sphere of economy and energy sector is exacerbating, informational aggression of the Russian Federation against Ukraine continues. In general, current events give no reason to expect changes for the better in Russia’s policy towards Ukraine in the foreseeable future. Thus, the current state of Kyiv-Moscow relations demands creating fundamentally different conceptual and strategic approaches to co-existence with Putin’s Russia, a review of international contacts system, introduction of specific measures towards Russia.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Crimea