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2. A Dead-End War: Russian Failure and Ukrainian Destruction
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- With all parties still clinging to their demands, there is no end in sight to the war: Russia wants to cement its control over four Ukrainian provinces, win recognition of its sovereignty over Crimea, and secure guarantees for Ukrainian neutrality. Ukraine wants a definitive end to hostilities, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory (including Crimea), and negotiations on its strategic future.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Conflict, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Europe, and Ukraine
3. Even Chances: Defining Presidential and Parliamentary Elections in Turkey
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- If Erdogan and the AKP lose the election, the old class will return to power in a spirit of vengeance, armed with the legal and coercive tools of the state, which even Kilicdaroglu and his allies may be unable to restrain. If the People’s Alliance is victorious, it will have five full years to groom capable heirs who can preserve the gains made by the conservative Turkish majority in the past two decades and faithfully follow in the AKP’s footsteps.
- Topic:
- Elections, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
4. Erdogan wins the presidency: Causes, implications and horizons
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- It is clear that identity politics still carry much weight in Turkey, that the conservative voting bloc remains the largest, and that the majority of this bloc continues to believe in Erdogan and his ability to lead the country.
- Topic:
- Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
5. On a Collision Course: Russia’s Dangerous Game in Ukraine
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- While Russia demands a written guarantee that Ukraine will not be offered NATO membership, Western countries are warning it of dire consequences if it launches a war on Ukraine. The balance of power between the two parties, Russia and the West, may remain on the verge of collapse, leaving Ukraine unstable and Ukrainian leadership unable to control the entire country.
- Topic:
- NATO, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
6. The End of the Post-Cold War Era: Russia's Adventure in Ukraine Reshapes the Entire World Order
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Whether Russian adventure in Ukraine proves to be a success or a failure, the integration of Russia into Europe has come to a halt. Europe will face division once again, albeit along lines that differ greatly from those of the Cold War.
- Topic:
- NATO, Integration, Post Cold War, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
7. War in Ukraine enters its second month: serious implications and far-reaching changes
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Russian invasion of Ukraine in its second month witnessed several developments, including the failure of the Russian forces to achieve a quick and decisive military victory and the Russian leadership's reduction of its primary objectives.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
8. After the 25 July constitutional referendum: Codification of autocratic rule heightens Tunisians’ fears of the future
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- While Saied initially had popular momentum behind his programme—he came into office in 2019 with a whopping 72 percent of the vote—his popularity has eroded sharply over the last year as many Tunisians have lost faith in his ability to address economic woes, improve living conditions and fight corruption.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Constitution, Referendum, and Autocracy
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
9. Ukraine: Toward a Prolonged War of Attrition Fuelling Great Power Competition
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Russia and China no longer need to play by the rules of the Euro-American international order. It is therefore likely that in this uncertain period of flux, the major four powers will vie to win friends and allies, giving second-tier powers like Turkey and India more influence if they can ably manage their foreign relations and avoid unnecessary alignment with any of the four major powers.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, China, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe
10. The 2023 Turkish elections: An unmarked road
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- As the date of elections approaches, the political and economic landscape will undoubtedly come into clearer focus. But at this point, amid so many uncertainties, it is still too early to predict electoral outcomes with any confidence.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Elections, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
11. Two-state solution: A radical shift in the Cypriot conflict
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Turkey supported Northern Cyprus’s call for a two-state solution to the nearly half-decade-old conflict on the island due to the the failure of negotiations over the past years on the federal solution and geopolitical changes in the eastern Mediterranean.
- Topic:
- Geopolitics, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Cyprus and Mediterranean
12. The State of Exception in Tunisia: Background, Significance and Prospects
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Tunisian President Saied undertook exceptional measures to assume all powers, causing sharp internal and external polarisation between those who consider them an infringement of the democratic system and those who consider them necessary measures necessitated by the deteriorating conditions.
- Topic:
- Democracy, Polarization, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
13. A strategic shift: The return of the Taliban in Afghanistan and its implications
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Taliban was able to establish control over Afghanistan with surprising speed due to the collapse of solidarity between the forces opposing them. Nonetheless, its leaders were keen to allay the fears of both the Afghans and external forces to gain political legitimacy internally and externally.
- Topic:
- Politics, Taliban, Conflict, and Legitimacy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America
14. The Egyptian-Jordanian-Iraqi triangle: Reviving an Arab axis in changed circumstances
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Egyptian, Iraqi, and Jordanian leaderships continue to seek enhanced cooperation among them, as if reviving the Arab alliance that they had formed in the past, in order to overcome unfavourable changes in the regional environment.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Arab Countries, Leadership, and Alliance
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, Egypt, and Jordan
15. Biden-Erdogan meeting: cautious rapprochement amid still thorny disputes
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- As long as Turkey pursues its regional ambitions, any understandings with the US and the West will necessarily have a hard ceiling. However, Ankara seems to be pursuing a more conciliatory policy in the region and in its relations with the West for both economic and strategic reasons.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Rapprochement, Strategic Interests, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
16. The Suez Canal crisis: A strategic corridor beset by competitors
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Ever Given incident showed Egyptians that the centrality of the Suez Canal is not necessarily a fact of nature. If Egypt does not take action to maintain the canal and make it more attractive, it could give competitors the opportunity to make their projects for alternative routes a reality.
- Topic:
- Infrastructure, Economy, Trade, and Supply Chains
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Egypt, and Suez
17. Dividing up Covid-19 vaccine: distribution based on countries’ weight
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Ending the coronavirus pandemic is not only about the technical issue of vaccine development. The challenge is multidimensional, involving a global proprietary pharmaceutical system and an exclusive, nationalist tendency in wealthy, prosperous states.
- Topic:
- Nationalism, Vaccine, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Pharmaceuticals
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
18. A warm war: Sudan and Ethiopia on a collision course
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Border conflict between Sudan and Ethiopia is fed by current conflicts rooted in historical disagreements, and may develop into a regional crisis that will expand to include Egypt, which considers the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam a threat to its national security.
- Topic:
- National Security, War, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Sudan, and Ethiopia
19. Tunisia: An overlapping political and constitutional crisis
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Tunisian President Kais Saied’s rejection of governmental alteration is a reflection of a wider political crisis, stemming from the disagreement between the presidency and the parliamentary majority over the form of the political system and the distribution of powers among its pillars.
- Topic:
- Politics, Constitution, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
20. The Washington-Ankara alliance: Recurrent crises or durable partnership
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- An imminent crisis between the Biden administration and Ankara is anticipated due to circumstantial differences and structural shifts in the balance of power, but the mutual interests of the two parties may push them to agree on new foundations for a sustainable partnership.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Partnerships, Alliance, and Multilateralism
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
21. The day after: The conflicting implications of Brexit
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Britain has effectively left the EU after long and tiresome negotiations. But the implications of Brexit have not transpired completely as the aftershocks may be felt within Britain itself in the form of increased desire for independence in Scotland; and London may fail to establish trade agreements that can compensate for its exit from the EU.
- Topic:
- European Union, Economy, Brexit, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- United Kingdom, Europe, and Scotland
22. Warring partners: Exploiting the failed coup in the political transition in Sudan
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The failed coup attempt in Sudan expanded dispute between the partners in power, the military and the civilians, who both sought to use it to lead the transitional phase as per their own priorities.
- Topic:
- Politics, Coup, Civilians, Transition, and Military
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
23. The Middle East: From a decade of conflict to an age of reconciliation
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Swift reconciliations initiated by regimes with the purpose of cutting their losses and shoring up their own sources of power are not enough to establish enduring stability and a genuinely cooperative regional order.
- Topic:
- Political stability, Conflict, Reconciliation, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
24. The crisis of the Turkish lira: Toward economic collapse or a new economic model?
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2021
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- As with any economic or fiscal policy, Erdogan is taking a risk, betting that his vision can turn the Turkish economy around. The only problem is that with presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2023, he has just 18 months to prove the efficacy of his policies.
- Topic:
- Economy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Fiscal Policy, and Currency
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean
25. Idlib: The New Strategic Nucleus of the Battle over Syria
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- After Turkey’s unsuccessful ultimatum set for the Syrian regime and its Russian ally to commit to the Sochi Agreement, Ankara has targeted the Assad regime and its allies’ locations along the de-escalation zone by launching Operation Spring Shield. Russia has capitalized on Turkey’s anger by offering an agreement establishing new facts on ground during a Turkish-Russian summit on March 5th.
- Topic:
- Military Strategy, Armed Forces, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Syria, United States of America, and Idlib
26. Declaration of Autonomy: The Gradual Erosion of Authority in South Yemen
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 05-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- In light of competing interests and calculations, the situation in south Yemen could unfold along various trajectories, but the determining factor will be the extent to which the STC takes its commitment to the Riyadh Agreement seriously.
- Topic:
- Treaties and Agreements, Conflict, and Autonomy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
27. An Advance Line of Defense: Moscow’s Objectives in Libya
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Moscow is escalating its undisclosed intervention in Libya to set up an advanced line of defence in the Mediterranean but the chances of its success are uncertain due to the nature of the NATO’s potential countermeasures and the political legitimacy that Russia’s Libyan partners will gain.
- Topic:
- NATO, Military Strategy, Military Intervention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Libya, and North Africa
28. States within the state: Kadhimi’s challenge is to bring Shia militias under control
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The security crisis facing the Kadhimi government and the Iraqi state is a major obstacle to stability and economic development in Iraq, representing a significant drain on the country’s resources and capacities.
- Topic:
- Security, Natural Resources, Governance, Economic Development, and Militias
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
29. Moment of truth: Mali teeters between President Keïta and the protest movement
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- President Keïta is currently facing a mass movement demanding he step down. Decrying rampant corruption, election rigging, a collapsing economy and rising unemployment, a lack of security, and ethnic conflict, the movement sees his ouster as the first step toward a fourth republic and democracy.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democracy, Protests, and Unemployment
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mali
30. The Mechichi government: Will it resolve the Tunisian crisis or deepen it?
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Tunisian President Kais Saied tapped Hichem Mechichi to form a new government, following the resignation of Prime Minister Elyas Fakhfakh, whose government lasted a brief, though stormy, five months marred by allegations of conflict of interest and a vote of no-confidence.
- Topic:
- Government, Politics, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Tunisia
31. The Sirte-Jufra line: a front in the war or the basis of negotiations?
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Although all indications are that most of the principal players favour a political resolution, the military situation will remain volatile as long as Haftar’s forces are in Sirte and remain in control of the economically vital oil region.
- Topic:
- War, Natural Resources, Conflict, and Negotiation
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Libya, and North Africa
32. The Israeli-Emirati peace agreement: ambiguous and fragile
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The most likely scenario is for the UAE to take advantage of the agreement in areas such as advanced technology, weapons acquisitions and intelligence cooperation, as well as agriculture and health while avoiding military bases and joint defence agreements.
- Topic:
- Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, and Trade
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and United Arab Emirates
33. The fourth coup: Mali between peaceful transition and security vacuum
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- A group of Malian soldiers overthrew President Keita and formed a committee to lead the country. This was welcomed internally and denounced externally. However, their mission now faces domestic and foreign pressures that necessitate them to find a consensual solution to this crisis.
- Topic:
- Security, Coup, Peace, and Transition
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Mali
34. Turkey and Egypt: toward a necessary de-escalation
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Despite the recent escalation and the stark divide between their vision of their interests and roles, both Turkey and Egypt realise that a direct clash would be damaging for both of them. In fact, there are indications that both states are more pragmatic than their bellicose statements indicate.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Military Strategy, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Egypt
35. Turkey and Greece: pouring gas on the eastern Mediterranean dispute
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Turkish-Greek conflict over maritime borders is unlike any other in the world. Not only does it involve potentially vast wealth under the seabed in the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean, it relies on diverse and competing legal sources and interpretations.
- Topic:
- Oil, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Maritime, and Borders
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Greece, and Mediterranean
36. The French initiative: technocratic fixes for Lebanon’s chronic crises
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 09-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Major Lebanese factions are urgently trying to fulfill French demands for the formation of a technocratic government that opens the door for international aids and alleviates public anger and increasing foreign isolation.
- Topic:
- Government, Bilateral Relations, Crisis Management, and Technocracy
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, France, and Lebanon
37. The Nagorno-Karabakh war: A new balance of power in the southern Caucasus
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Despite the ambiguity around the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh, the war produced clear winners – Azerbaijan and Turkey – and losers – Armenia, France, the United States and Iran.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, War, Power Politics, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, France, Armenia, Azerbaijan, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh
38. Challenges of the Biden presidency: mending domestic and foreign rifts
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 11-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Although Joe Biden won the most votes ever in a national election, Trump expanded his base of support, receiving more votes than even Hillary Clinton did in 2016. This indicates that Biden is now facing the domestic challenge of the stark polarisation of American society as well as the challenge of restoring the international stature of the United States.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Domestic Policy, Polarization, and Joe Biden
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
39. The Erdogan Doctrine: Turkey’s regional strategy
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2020
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s involvement in various conflicts is a reflection of the Erdogan Doctrine that was formed by internal transformations that have led to the creation of a sophisticated military industry and a prosperous economy and shifted its view of its external role as an independent regional power.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Economy, Conflict, Erdogan, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
40. Sudan demonstrations between ad-hoc economic measures and far-reaching political changes
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The conflict in Sudan is now between two competing visions: where Bashir believes no political change is needed to address the crisis, the protestors are adamant that it can only be resolved with his departure. The question is which of these two positions will be victorious.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Sudan
41. The US withdrawal from Syria: Causes, Contexts and Consequences
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Trump’s decision leaves the Kurdish nationalists of the KDP defenceless and, with their patron gone, will likely cause splits among Arab forces allied with Kurdish militiamen. Regionally, it sends a message to US allies in the Gulf about the Trump’s commitment to the Iran-containment strategy.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Kurdistan
42. Energy Geopolitics in 2019
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The extraordinary criticism that Saudi Arabia is under holds the potential for the US Congress enacting legislation against OPEC. Anti-trust legislation would have turbulent impact on the global energy market in that such pressure could lead members withdrawing from OPEC.
- Topic:
- Energy Policy, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
43. Social Capital between State and Society in Morocco: An Outside-in Reflection
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Since 2017, the decline of social capital in Morocco represents a tree that hides a forest. We are now at an interlocking point of two negative trends in this decline: one is political vertical, and the other is societal horizontal.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Morocco
44. Two-pronged approaches: considerations in the US-Iran showdown
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- In early May 2019, the United States announced it would deploy an aircraft carrier, B-52 strategic bombers, and a Patriot missile battery to the Gulf region, declaring it had received information that Iran intended to strike US targets or those of its allies, directly or through a proxy. The United States followed with a new round of sanctions targeting Iran’s oil industry.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Iran
45. Two-pronged approaches: considerations in the US-Iran showdown
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 05-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Although both the United States and Iran say they do not want a direct military confrontation, such escalation by the United States necessarily invites an Iranian response, particularly since Tehran is butting heads with US regional allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
- Topic:
- International Cooperation, International Security, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Iran
46. The assault on Tripoli: Haftar’s military calculations and the political ramifications
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Faced with a failed offensive and weakened political influence, Haftar may decide to focus his efforts on eastern Libya, which would give added impetus to partition and deepen existing divisions.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Tripoli
47. Turkish municipal elections: AKP victory tastes like defeat in major cities
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Overall, the AKP’s vote share in the 30 biggest cities declined from 2014, continuing a trend seen first in the 2017 referendum. The reversal in AKP fortunes is most evident in Istanbul, often considered a microcosm of Turkey.
- Topic:
- International Organization and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
48. Sudan demonstrations between ad-hoc economic measures and far-reaching political changes
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2019
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The conflict in Sudan is now between two competing visions: where Bashir believes no political change is needed to address the crisis, the protestors are adamant that it can only be resolved with his departure. The question is which of these two positions will be victorious
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Sudan
49. The Internationalisation of the Khashoggi Case: Prospects and Possibilities
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- So far, Turkey has been successful in its pursuit of internationalising the Khashoggi case and playing its cards strategically to keep the attention of international media and appeal to the morality of peoples and governments while also avoiding a direct clash with Saudi Arabia
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
50. The Saudi Predicament: The Domestic and Foreign Cost of Khashoggi’s Assassination
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Khashoggi’s assassination has seriously eroded Saudi Arabia’s reputation, interests and international relations. This puts the kingdom’s allies and MBS boosters in a tight spot, wondering if they should disassociate themselves from the kingdom to best preserve their own reputations.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia
51. The US Withdrawal from Syria: Causes, Contexts and Consequences
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Trump’s decision leaves the Kurdish nationalists of the KDP defenceless and, with their patron gone, will likely cause splits among Arab forces allied with Kurdish militiamen. Regionally, it sends a message to US allies in the Gulf about the Trump’s commitment to the Iran-containment strategy.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- America and Syria
52. The Internationalisation of the Khashoggi Case: Prospects and Possibilities
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- So far, Turkey has been successful in its pursuit of internationalising the Khashoggi case and playing its cards strategically to keep the attention of international media and appeal to the morality of peoples and governments while also avoiding a direct clash with Saudi Arabia.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
53. The Khashoggi assassination remains in the spotlight
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2018
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Saudi Arabia is working overtime at damage control, seeking to put the assassination to rest. Despite these efforts, the crisis persists as the biggest that has ever faced the kingdom. The killing has seriously eroded KSA’s moral standing and has already had tangible political costs.
- Topic:
- International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Saudi Arabia
54. People & Power - Disinformation and Democracy | People and Power
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2018
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- For democracies to flourish and succeed, voters need accurate information on which to base their decisions; to weigh up the relative merits of proposed policy A over proposed policy B, to judge whether this candidate is more trustworthy or reliable than that one, or that these promises are more likely to be kept than those. But recent elections, most notably that of Donald Trump as US President, have highlighted the dangers to this process posed by those using social media and the internet to spread malevolent propaganda and fake news.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Democracy, and Post Truth Politics
- Political Geography:
- Global Focus
55. The Gulf: An unprecedented crisis and major repercussions
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- On 5 June 2017, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, in marked succession, cut diplomatic relations with Qatar. Within a matter of hours, it became clear that this was not simply a move to sever ties, but a plan for a full embargo, an unprecedented step at a time of peace between these nations. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain blocked flights to Qatar, closed land and sea borders, and ordered Qatari citizens out of their countries while calling on their own nationals to leave Qatar. The same day, Maldives, Mauritius (though it later denied the news), the Libyan Tobruk-based government (which is not recognised internationally), and the Yemeni government based in Riyadh followed suit and cut ties with Qatar, unable to resist Saudi pressure. The next day, Jordan downgraded diplomatic relations with Qatar and revoked the licence of Al Jazeera’s bureau in Amman, while Mauritania severed diplomatic relations with Qatar. Mauritius, in an official statement, denied it had cut ties, raising questions of whether some party took the initiative on behalf of the Mauritian government. The actions taken at dawn on 5 June were the culmination of an unprecedented, anti-Qatar media blitz initiated by Emirati, Saudi, Bahraini and Egyptian media on the evening of 23 May. The campaign intensified until it assumed official imprimatur with the decision to cut ties and blockade Qatar. What, then, is happening to relations between countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)? After Gulf leaders came together in a scene of friendship, cooperation and solidarity during US President Donald Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, why are relations between three GCC states and Qatar deteriorating so rapidly and in such unprecedented fashion? Was there an immediate cause that spurred Saudi Arabia and its partners to take this stance, or were these actions planned in advance? Is this simply a fleeting crisis in relations between GCC states, or could the break persist?
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East
56. A difficult birth: Complexities and prospects for the formation of the Moroccan government
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Abstract It appears from his decision to replace Abdelilah Benkirane with Saadeddine Othmani as head of the government that Moroccan King Mohammed VI does not want to deviate from the requirements of the constitution and democratic methods. He is attempting to use his constitutional powers to find an acceptable solution to end the stalemate and form a government. Othmani has succeeded in reaching a tentative agreement to form the government and is likely to succeed in its formation and leadership. However, he will head a heterogeneous government afflicted by many contradictions, which may implode if it falls under excessive pressure. The government would then be in crisis, which it would have to overcome with a cabinet reshuffle to avoid a complete collapse, especially given the strong position of the king who wants the Justice and Development Party to continue leading the government in future.
- Topic:
- Democratization, International Affairs, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Morocco
57. The Haftar-Sarraj Rapprochement and Prospects for a Resolution of the Libyan Crisis
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 05-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Abstract The commander of Operation Dignity, Khalifa Haftar, shocked supporters even more than his opponents when he agreed to meet the Chairman of the Presidential Council, Fayez al-Sarraj, in Abu Dhabi on 2 May 2017, having previously refused to recognise him. This about-face may be attributable to the acquiescence of Haftar’s regional allies to direct international pressure. Reactions to the rapprochement between al-Sarraj and Haftar varied across the eastern and western fronts. Khalifa Haftar’s status in the east precludes serious opposition to his decisions, while in the western region a substantial segment of the population blessed the meeting in hopes that a détente would stop the deterioration of the security and economic situation. In contrast, western political and military factions were incensed, and some responded violently. Haftar’s acceptance of consensual agreement and reconciliation clearly grows out the waning possibility of assuming control of the country through decisive military action. From his standpoint, it therefore makes sense to attempt to impose his conditions through negotiations, which means the Skhirat agreement could collapse or undergo radical revisions.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Libya
58. The Significance of the ‘YES’ Vote to the Constitutional Amendments in Turkey and Its Repercussions
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Supreme Electoral Council of Turkey has officially announced that the Yes camp has won the constitutional amendments by just over 51 per cent, in contrast to the camp rejecting the amendments which received just over 48 per cent, although these results are not yet final. Surprisingly, an overwhelming majority of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), though its leadership and the majority of its parliamentary bloc supported the amendments, voted ‘no’. The five major cities – Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir, Adana and Antalya – all voted ‘no’. The Kurdish vote clearly played a very important role in the Yes supporters’ victory. In other words, those who said ‘yes’ to the changes in cities with a significant Kurdish population exceeded the total votes of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the MHP in the recent parliamentary elections. In the external sphere, the referendum’s outcome is not expected to have a direct impact on heated regional issues, particularly in Syria, as well as most regional issues.
- Topic:
- Democratization and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
59. The Battle of Western Mosul: Stakes and prospects
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper reviews the importance of western Mosul to all parties in the conflict: the Iraqi forces and their allies, on the one hand, and the Islamic State’s forces, on the other, and the obstacles to any of these parties resolving the conflict. It also touches on the extent of their forces and the clear dominance of the offensive forces, and it discusses the military strategies for the battle and potential outcomes in addition to the available options for the Islamic State (IS). It anticipates an end to the fight in favour of the Iraqi forces within a few weeks if the battle and its results progress at a similar pace to that of its first week. This will depend on any unaccounted for variables during the battle that would change the equation on the ground. It concludes by discussing the available options for IS after the battle ends, with the expectation that IS will fight until the end; while its commanders will inevitability lose the battle, this will not eliminate threats to security and stability in Iraq in the foreseeable future.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Civil War, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
60. Between Astana and Geneva: The outlook of conflicting agendas in the Syrian crisis
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Since the beginning of the Astana process, Moscow seems to be in a race against time to establish the foundations of a solution in Syria before arriving in Geneva: first, by reforming the opposition’s delegation to the negotiations, an effort Moscow has been working on ever since the military intervention in Syria began, and second, by redrawing the solution’s main parameters, which Moscow exerted great effort towards during marathon negotiations conducted with the former US Secretary of State, John Kerry. Through these negotiations, Moscow has been able to change the rules at Geneva by prioritising an agreement to change the constitution, followed by the formation of a non-sectarian representative government, and then calling for presidential elections with Assad’s participation, so ‘the Syrian people can decide his fate’.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Civil War, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Syria
61. Constitutional amendments in Turkey: Predictions and implications
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Justice and Development Party (AKP) could not possibly have received approval for the proposed constitutional amendments in parliament and needed the Nationalist Movement Party’s support in order to carry out a referendum. A difficult election campaign for the amendments awaits the two opposing parties; however, there is no way to be certain before the announcement of the referendum results. Nevertheless, the most important issue relates to the long-term consequences for the AKP, particularly in terms of its Kurdish base. In terms of ethnicities, the AKP is considered the party of Turks, Kurds, Arabs, Circassians and all other Turkish ethnic groups, while the Nationalist Movement Party has traditionally been committed to the most severe position against the Kurdish Nationalist Movement, including its armed and unarmed wings.
- Topic:
- Democratization and Constitution
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
62. The costs of voting on Kurdistan’s secession
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 10-2017
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The referendum on the Kurdish secession ended in a victory for self-determination; Baghdad, Ankara, and Tehran move to take punitive actions.
- Topic:
- International Security and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Kurdistan
63. Failed Turkish Coup: Dynamics and Implications
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The military coup attempt that unfolded in Turkey on the night of 15 July 2016 was successfully put down by popular protests across the country responding to President Erdogan’s calls for citizens to stand for democracy. Despite this, the coup attempt will have domestic, regional and international implications. This policy brief is a preliminary analysis of the reasons the coup failed, the paths Turkish politics may take after this coup and the regional and international reactions to the coup.
- Topic:
- International Security and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
64. Davutoglu’s Resignation: Crisis Under Control
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 05-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- After two meetings between Turkey’s President Erdogan and Prime Minister Davutoglu in the span of less than a week, Davutoglu announced his resignation as head of government and head of the AKP party on 5 May 2016. This policy brief examines the key points of contention between Erdogan and Davutoglu, the republic’s governmental crisis, the impact of Davutoglu’s resignation on the Justice and Development (AKP) Party and the possibility of constitutional reform that will change the country’s system of governance.
- Topic:
- Democratization, Political Power Sharing, and Political stability
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
65. Syria: Fate of Assad Impedes Success of Geneva III
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2016
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- This policy brief examines developments regarding resolution of the Syrian issue, particularly in light of three key events: Russia’s announcement of a withdrawal, Geneva III talks and the opposition’s latest announcement that they wanted the talks to cease given increasing aggression on civilian areas. For the opposition belonging to the High Negotiations Committee (HNC), Assad cannot have a role in Syria’s political future, particularly given that his regime and its allies is responsible for 95 per cent of the casualties in the country, far exceeding any other actors in Syria, including the Islamic State organisation.(1) This policy brief looks at the outcomes of the third round of Geneva III, what Russia has gained from its intervention and so-called withdrawal, and argues that any future proposals for Syria which maintain Assad’s position will result in continuation of fighting.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and Civil War
- Political Geography:
- Syria
66. Ben Gardane Attacks: Achievements and Failures
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2016
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The 7 March 2016 attacks on Ben Gardane by Islamic State (IS) occurred in the context of growing upheaval in next-door Libya, internal government tension in Tunisia and challenges faced by Tunisia’s security apparatus after several armed attacks in the country during 2015. This policy brief examines the security, political and regional contexts of the Ben Gardane attack, the positive and negative aspects of the state’s response and addresses preventative measures the state is likely to take in the future.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Terrorism, and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Tunisia
67. Power Imbalance: Iran’s Gains, Saudi’s Challenges
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 01-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- There is no one, sweeping reason for declining oil prices, but Iran and Russia have publicly and explicitly placed the blame on Saudi’s shoulders. The reality is, however, is that the drop in oil prices is just one more point of contention between Iran and Saudi in a line of regional issues that have brought to light the reality of an Iran-Saudi showdown. Iran’s growing regional expansion, the conflict over a Syrian resolution, and the Houthis’ increasing control over Yemen are all more convincing factors which help explain why Saudi is adamantly refusing to reduce its oil production. This position paper analyses Saudi’s challenges as it attempts to counter Iran’s gains in the Arab region, particularly in light of a possible nuclear deal between Iran and the US.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Oil, Regional Cooperation, and Economy
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Syria
68. President Hadi's Resignation: Dangers and Alternatives
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- With President Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi’s resignation, Yemen lost a leader who had the ability to facilitate considerable consensus among diverse political forces involved in fierce conflicts over various issues, including the territorial conflict between north and south; the sectarian conflict between Zaidis and Shafiis; the political conflict between the old guard (represented by deposed president Ali Abdullah Saleh) and the new post-revolution regime headed by Hadi; and the armed conflict between al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Yemeni armed forces. As it stands, it appears that none of these warring forces can single-handedly force their will on the nation. Rather, it is clear they need to somehow work together and attain a degree of regional and international recognition. This also requires that these forces reposition themselves accordingly. This paper addresses the dynamics that drove Yemen to this state of affairs, and discusses probable scenarios for Yemen’s future.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Conflict, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
69. Sisi’s Harvest: Illusion of Stability, Perpetuation of Unrest
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Events in Egypt last Sunday, the fourth anniversary of the 25 January revolution, had been gestating for almost nineteen months. Popular opposition to the 3 July 2013 regime has continued at varying scales, ranging from massive assemblies at the Rabaa al-Adawiya and al-Nahda squares to small demonstrations all over the country, with larger ones on Fridays. But the fourth anniversary’s events marked a deep change in the popular opposition’s temperament, and the sheer size of the demonstrations was more massive than any of last year’s popular movements. This image presents a stark contrast to the message that the regime has been trying to disseminate regionally and globally, claiming it is finally and successfully in control of the country, and that the sole challenge it has to overcome today is that of the economy. This paper presents an initial reading of the events of that day, and their implications for the futures of both the popular opposition and the regime, ending with a discussion on how regional and global forces view the regime.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Revolution, Civil Unrest, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt
70. Libyan Dialogue: Uphill Battle, Limited Chances for Success
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- As analysts and observers attempt to parse out the intricacies of the current Libyan conflict, the United Nations is sponsoring a dialogue to bring together the warring parties and attempt to find a political solution. This paper proposes that while there are factors which increase the likelihood of successful dialogue, the reality is that internal disputes within each of the political parties, as well as regional and international attention to other, more pressing matters, mean that the dialogue is actually an uphill battle.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Negotiation, Political Parties, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
71. Daesh Trumps Assad Amid Shifting International Priorities in Syria
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- As the Syrian crisis enters its fifth year, regional and international priorities in Syria have changed as a result of Daesh or the so-called Islamic State (IS) group’s expansion. Attempts to repackage the conflict and transform its essence into “fighting terrorism” have increased. In this context, initiatives have been launched to revamp the Syrian regime’s image on the grounds that the conditions that led to the first Geneva Communique no longer exist.(1) However, the prospect that Assad’s regime can be rehabilitated to make it acceptable domestically, regionally or internationally are at best a delusion. The regime’s repressive policies during the years that followed the revolution’s outbreak has made it a polarising rather than a unifying actor, one that has broken all possible lines of political capital and made its institutions even more sectarian during the crisis. In addition, armed groups representing divergent trends have emerged, and they will necessarily play a major role in any future arrangement, one that will not present itself unless power is redistributed in a way that changes the existing system’s structure.
- Topic:
- Non State Actors, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, Syrian War, and Bashar al-Assad
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
72. Risks of Egypt’s Military Intervention in Libya
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- An armed group calling itself the Tripoli Province of the Islamic State executed twenty-one Egyptian Copts in the Libyan city of Sirte last week, sparking a global wave of anger. This provoked the Egyptian government to launch hasty air raids; however, these raids surprisingly did not target Sirte, where the executions took place, but rather the city of Darna, killing and wounding civilians. This paper argues that the Egyptian government’s strikes were retaliatory and misguided by any standards. Not only did the air strikes clearly hit civilian targets, but the extent of damage, if any, inflicted on rebels belonging to the Darna Mujahideen Shura Council is still unclear. Also unclear are the whereabouts of the rebels and their camps, raising speculations about whether the air raids were just a prelude to wider Egyptian intervention, as well as the nature and extent of any such intervention.
- Topic:
- Government, Violent Extremism, Islamic State, and Military Intervention
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Egypt
73. Implications of Operation Decisive Storm
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Saudi Arabia, along with nine of its allies, has launched an offensive on the Houthi groups in Yemen. This offensive will have implications on not only Saudi Arabia and its immediate neighbours, but also on other international actors, including Iran and western countries such as the United States. This paper addresses the repercussions of this operation in light of growing Iranian expansion in the Arab world.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Military Intervention, and Houthis
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America
74. King Salman’s Priorities: Revamping Alliances to Stop Iranian expansion
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Immediately after Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz passed, his successor, King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud, made successive major decisions affecting key positions in the structure of the political system. It appeared that Salman was restructuring the government entirely. Naturally, numerous questions have been raised about whether the major changes in the structure of rule and government will be associated with parallel changes in Saudi foreign policy. If there has been a serious incident that set off warning bells in Saudi Arabia over the past few months, it has undoubtedly been the events in Yemen, where the Houthis have seized control of most of the north and thus opened the country’s doors to Iranian influence. The Saudis’ response, Operation Decisive Storm, are further evidence of Saudi’s changing priorities, but it is too early to make extreme predictions on the impact of these changes on specific regional issues and policies.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Government, Alliance, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
75. Operation Decisive Storm: Reshuffling Regional Order
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Operation Decisive Storm is being interpreted as a first step towards curbing Iranian expansion in the Arab world rather than a step towards protecting Yemen and its legitimacy. Pakistan and Turkey’s support for this operation is significant in light of the US’ visible withdrawal from the region. With the operation still in its early days, it has become imperative to re-examine its goals, their feasibility, and implications of the attacks.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Military Intervention, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Turkey, Middle East, Yemen, and United States of America
76. Turkish Parliamentary Elections: Risks and Predictions
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s president and prime minister have not hidden the Justice and Development Party’s (AKP) intention to write a new constitution which converts the system of governance from parliamentary to presidential. In some ways, the 7 June 2015 Turkish parliamentary elections, the fourth parliamentary elections the AKP will contest, will decide the future of the country’s constitution and its system of governance. The most difficult factor to predict in this election has been the Kurdish vote, because the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) ran candidates as independents in the last parliamentary elections and received six per cent of the vote share. This time, the party has decided to run under its party banner, which will surely increase their vote share. The only question is how much.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Parliamentarism
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
77. Repercussions of Shifting Power in Syria
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The recent successive setbacks suffered by Assad regime forces are causing as much alarm among Bashar al-Assad’s opponents as they are among his allies. This has also prompted the political opposition to try to use the new shift in the balance of power to push for a political process that would lead to a transitional phase, ending more than four years of deadly conflict that can be easily called a brutal civil war. The Syrian armed opposition, despite appearing more and more like a tiny detail in a much larger game of regional and international interests, can still force changes to regional and global agendas, just as much as it can still force the regime and its allies to change tactics on the ground. All that alone, however, is nowhere near enough. Unless translated into real, tangible political results that would maintain Syria’s unity, and help rebuild the country, the opposition’s victories on the ground will remain but mere, isolated events of little significance.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Syrian War
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
78. The Iran Nuclear Deal: A Monumental Mistake by the Obama Administration or a New Beginning?
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The nuclear deal reached between Iran and the P5+1, China, France, Germany, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom, will be scrutinized by diplomats, military experts and politicians for months and years to come. Statesmen and politicians will interpret the deal differently and each will vie to use the argument which suites the audience and the domestic base she/he represents. However, the psychological, economic, political, and military implications of the deal on the United States, Europe and many Middle Eastern countries will be monumental. The deal will impact the balance of power in the Middle East and will change its dynamics forever, change the dynamics of the energy markets in Europe, Thus creating tension between Russia and Europe, and will ignite a fierce security debate between Democrats and Republicans in the United States on the culture of regime change and the use of force. The deal will bring the subject of regime change to the political forefront in the US and will raise a serious question on whether the use of force is the only effective mechanism to change the behavior of states in order to achieve favorable outcomes. Both Republicans and Democrats used force as a tool for regime change, however the Obama administration is a advocating for new means: diplomacy.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Regime Change, and Geopolitics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, China, United Kingdom, Iran, Middle East, France, and Germany
79. Nidaa Tounes Rift Exacerbates Government Crisis
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Nidaa Tounes, a party born post-Tunisian revolution, is currently experiencing internal rifts, which in turn is having an impact on the country’s secular-Islamist ruling government’s ability to move forward. This rift became especially obvious after the party’s founder and leader, Beji Caid Essebsi, won the presidency and consequently resigned as party leader according to Tunisia’s constitutional law. This position paper examines key actors and roots of the party’s rift, how this rift has impacted state institutions and future scenarios for the governing coalition.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Democratization, Terrorism, and Popular Revolt
- Political Geography:
- Tunisia
80. Implications of Downed Russian Jet on Turkey-Russia Relations
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 12-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- After Turkish fighter jets shot down a Russian warplane 24 November 2015, tensions between the two countries came to a head, particularly given their very different political positions on the Syrian issue. With Russia an ally of the Assad regime, and Turkey an ally of the opposition, the downed Russian jet has been the latest in a string of incidents that have threatened otherwise growing economic and trade cooperation between the two countries. This position paper argues that escalation of the tension between the two sides will have ramifications not only for the two parties involved, but also for the Syrian crisis.
- Topic:
- International Relations and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
81. What Does New Political Push Mean for Syria?
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The Syrian armed opposition’s gains, especially in northern Syria, have stirred Russian and US fears about the possibility of a major regime collapse. This has prompted Moscow to return to the political solution approach to avert further expansion of the Islamic State (IS or Daesh) and to stop the regime’s power from completely dissolving. For the US, this has prompted President Obama to intensify bids to Iran for cooperation to resolve the Syrian crisis. This is in part to prove to his Republican opponents that the nuclear deal will contribute to modifying Iran’s behaviour and will motivate the country to cooperate in resolving the region’s crises rather than exacerbating them. Parallel to the military escalation in Zabadani, Iran re-launched its political initiative, which the Syrian opposition rejected, but which the regime quickly accepted because it guarantees its survival. Turkey has directly entered the fray in an effort to protect its interests in northern Syria, managing to broker a US agreement to establish an IS-free zone (which Turkey also intends to be Kurd-free).
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Syria
82. Turkish Government Crisis Makes Early Elections a Reality
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Following the results of the recent parliamentary election in Turkey, efforts by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and the centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) to form a coalition government failed. An alliance between the AKP and the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) seems unlikely because, among other reasons, the latter is connected to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The right-wing Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) this week also rejected the idea of a coalition with the AKP. Turkey is thus set for early elections in October or November.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Democratization, and Elections
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
83. Tunisia’s Security Crisis: The Challenge Of Restoring Control
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Although Tunisia’s model of democratic transition has been touted as the most successful and peaceful among Arab Spring nations thus far, recent armed attacks have affected this image, with analysts now left questioning the country’s security. However, it seems that many observers had actually overlooked a brewing socio-economic crisis and the state’s scarce resources to cope with unemployment and the imposed war on armed groups within the state. The population is fearful of more deadly attacks given the state security apparatus’ weaknesses and helplessness in the face of ever more sophisticated armed groups increasingly targeting the country’s economic structures. The coming months will be difficult for Tunisia, particularly because the government doesn’t have solutions or resources to address the escalating crisis. Despite talk of changing the government before the end of the year, a significant breakthrough is unlikely.
- Topic:
- International Security and International Affairs
- Political Geography:
- Tunisia
84. Armed Struggle for Power in South Sudan
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Thousands of people were injured or killed in South Sudan after clashes broke out in its capital, Juba, between pro-regime Salva Kiir supporters and forces loyal to fired Vice President Riek Machar. Nearly 200,000 citizens have fled their homes as a result. Mashar and a number of leaders from the Sudan Peoples’ Liberation Movement (SPLM) were fired last July by President Kiir, who announced recently that his forces successfully foiled the coup attempt led by Machar. Machar denies the coup allegations and accuses Kiir of attempting to oust his political opponents. International and regional mediation efforts are probable given the conflict is limited to power and wealth divisions and because the two sides share close tribal origins (Kiir from the Dinka tribe and Machar from the Nuer tribe) – neither is capable of ousting the other and one cannot rule the country without the other. Finally, the costs of conflict would be larger than the benefits of agreement, so this paper argues it is in their respective best interests to come to a consensus on oil exports, a key area of contention.
- Topic:
- Oil, Domestic Politics, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Africa and South Sudan
85. Erdogan and Gülen: Political Battle Waged in Court
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- While Erdogan saw the relationship between his Justice and Development Party (AKP) and Fethullah Gülen’s movement as a natural reflection of mobilized Islamic conservative forces, the relationship has been a subject of debate and many leaders of the party felt that a clash between the two sides was inevitable. Although the movement’s rhetoric has been centred on distancing itself from politics, it has not hidden its desire to play a political role or be represented within the state apparatus. The Gülen movement was helpful to Erdogan in the past in his campaign against the Kemalist current in the administration and the army, but with the demise of this common threat, differences have emerged between the former allies on the administration of the Turkish state.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
86. Consent by Force: Strategies to Avoid Failure in Syria
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 02-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Geneva II did not bring about any significant humanitarian or political advancement. The Assad regime attended the talks under pressure from Russia and in order to avoid being labelled as the party refusing a peaceful solution. The regime’s unwillingness to negotiate during the talks was unprecedented because it perceived that both regional and military contexts were more favourable to it than they had been prior to the Geneva invitation. However, the perception that things are in the regime’s favour is a mirage. The catastrophic humanitarian situation is threatening the international mood, especially given that Geneva II has thus far been an exercise in absurdity. Another American announcement to supply light-calibre weapons to the Syrian opposition highlights the possibility of escalation of fighting, forcing the negotiation process forward as the more desirable option.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, United Nations, Conflict, Syrian War, Negotiation, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
87. Playing with Fire: Pitfalls of Egypt's Security Tactics
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- A string of armed attacks on military personnel and buildings in cities of the Nile Valley and Sinai Peninsula are not surprising given the Egyptian army’s past and present crackdown on villages and communities in northern Sinai. This paper examines armed attacks on these areas, questions why and how armed attacks reached the Valley, explores actors behind the attacks and projects what these attacks mean for Egypt’s security and political future.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Authoritarianism, Political stability, and Coup
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Egypt
88. Factors Undermining Legitimacy in Libya
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- The security situation in Libya continues to deteriorate despite a steady growth in state security forces. Ongoing bombings, assassinations, kidnappings and smuggling are seen as a failure of the state authority and have prompted retired General Khalifa Haftar to call for the toppling of the General National Congress (GNC) and Libyan government. There was limited popular or military and armed factions support for this call; however, there has been some public sentiment calling for a strong military figure to contain disorder. They are opposed by Libyans who hold reservations about change by force. Haftar’s call, then, serves to extend regional trends and complicate the containment of federalism. It is also further consolidation of competition between figureheads occurring undemocratically and external to electoral processes.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil War, Conflict, and Legitimacy
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
89. Renewed Escalation of Erdogan-Gulen Conflict Increases Internal Polarisation
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 03-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- A massive wiretapping operation by Gulen affiliates in the government has uncovered alleged corruption by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his family, leading to renewed escalation of the crisis between the two sides. These allegations are meant to undermine Erdogan and his party (Justice and Development or AKP) politically and tarnish his image as a clean leader. Erdogan has responded by denying the allegations and labelling them unethical, escalating an ongoing exchange of attacks on moral credibility between the two sides.
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Fethullah Gülen, Polarization, and Political Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
90. Turkish Local Elections: Background, Results and Implications
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s local elections were held Sunday, March 30, 2014 under what can be considered turbulent political circumstances. These elections were key for a number of reasons: they were the third ones in which the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) participated in since its ascent to power in 2002, the large margin by which the AKP won and finally, because a great number of regional and international players considered the elections a test of the AKP and its president’s worthiness and benefit. Presidential elections will also be held in August of this year, and current leader of the AKP and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will continue to face challenges given a severely polarised political atmosphere in the country. This is particularly true given that the presidential position he strives for is seen in Turkey’s political culture as a unifying national position distant from partisan squabbles.
- Topic:
- Elections, Domestic Politics, Political Parties, and Political System
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
91. Faltering Authority: Sisi’s Rule in the Face of Polarisation
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Starting July 2013, Egypt began to experience unprecedented polarisation and civil strife. The country has not experienced this level of violence, arbitrary detention and even killing in recent history, and Field Marshal Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has responded by imposing an increasingly tightening security strategy. In the short term, this strategy will strengthen his opponents and increase his isolation – his policy of indiscriminate repression has widened the coalition of those opposed to his authority. The opposition, then, is no longer limited to the Muslim Brotherhood and now includes revolutionary youth groups as well as labourers, students and others. Furthermore, Sisi’s isolation of those who helped him overthrow Morsi has cost him political capital needed to extend his authority and isolate his opponents.
- Topic:
- Authoritarianism, Domestic Politics, Polarization, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt
92. Erdogan and the Turkish Presidency
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- There are several scenarios proposed as analysts examine Turkey’s upcoming presidential race. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) recently enjoyed a victory in local elections, and it is highly likely that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan will capitalize on this victory by running for Turkey’s presidency in August. This is the first time in the Turkish republic’s history that the president will be elected by a direct vote of the of the people rather than by the parliament. This paper addresses several questions that would follow any announcement by Erdogan stating his intention to run for the presidency. First, there is the question of Gul’s fate if Erdogan will run for the presidency and whether or not some type of deal will be negotiated on the exchange of roles between the two. Second, there is a question of whether or not Erdogan will win the presidency in the first round of voting or be forced to a second round of voting in which all opposition parties will rally behind a single candidate. Finally, there is a question of what kind of president Erdogan will be if he wins and the nature of the presidency Turkey will see in the coming years.
- Topic:
- Politics, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
93. Three Expansion Scenarios for Houthi Movement
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- In the three years since the start of the 2011 youth revolution, the Houthi movement has achieved remarkable military expansion into five northern Yemeni governorates outside its operations headquarters in Saada governorate. The Shiite movement has demonstrated solid military capability that has in turn allowed it to simultaneously fight on several fronts. This paper discusses the three possible trajectories for the movement given that it is difficult to ascertain its aims, strategic objectives and future course. First, it is possible the movement will gain military dominance. Second, it could pursue civilian integration. Finally, the movement could pursue a hybrid of military and civil society building activities. The movement’s internal dynamics and the extent to which Yemeni and regional players can influence it will be the deciding factor.
- Topic:
- Military Affairs, Conflict, Revolution, and Houthis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Yemen
94. Syrian Presidential Elections: Final Blow to Geneva
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- With interest in the Geneva conference’s lacklustre progress fading, and the Syrian regime’s presidential election showcase, any prospects for a political solution based on the 30 June 2012 Geneva declaration have been completely erased. The declaration, which was the basis for Geneva II in January 2014, had called for the formation of a transitional government drawn from both the regime and the opposition. Given this reality, and with the international community’s attention turned to other issues, the possibility of a political solution will be set even further back after the recent 3 June 2014 elections. It is likely that both parties to the conflict – the regime and its allies as well as the opposition and its supporters – will continue to strengthen their military and negotiating positions before any potential political process is launched. In addition, unpublicised contact between Iran and western countries will continue as a “second track” of the Syrian crisis.
- Topic:
- Syrian War, Revolution, Presidential Elections, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
95. Taking a Gamble, Haftar Resorts to Force
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Khalifa Haftar has used the internationally-recognised “war on terror” slogan to garner both domestic and foreign support for his use of force in Libya. In particular, he knows that fighting terrorism is a priority for the United States, the foreign country most affected by terrorism in Libya because its embassy there was attacked and its ambassador and other diplomats killed in September 2012. Looking at neighbouring Egypt, Haftar also observes that leadership there is citing the “war on terror” to justify its attacks on the opposition and suppress demands for democracy and freedom. However, both Islamists and non-Islamists have voiced reservations about his strategy, including senior military officers. These groups believe that escalating violence will only succeed in exacerbating the state of affairs. Furthermore, even those who support the use of force believe Haftar is unqualified to lead this process due to past mistakes which suggest he is not capable of imposing and maintaining security.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil War, Democracy, Violence, and Khalifa Haftar
- Political Geography:
- Libya and North Africa
96. Sisi as President: Questionable Legitimacy, Unclear Future
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- On 8 June 2014, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt’s former Minister of Defence, was sworn in before the Supreme Constitutional Court as President of the Egyptian Republic. On 3 July 2013, Marshal Sisi, a general at the time, led the Egyptian army to overthrow President Mohamed Morsi after only one year in office. The lavish formalities of the inauguration swept through some circles with euphoria. For others, it only intensified feelings of calamity dating back to the 30 June 2013 demonstrations, when the military command overthrew the first popularly-elected civilian president in the history of Egypt. It is important to note that the current euphoria of victory is not related to Sisi winning the majority in the recent Egyptian presidential election because his victory was clear even before the election. Rather, it is a function of the Egyptian deep state’s victory against the challenges and risks that have threatened it since the overthrow of the Mubarak regime on 11 February 2011.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Authoritarianism, Legitimacy, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
- Political Geography:
- North Africa and Egypt
97. Northern Mali Clashes Pose Threat of Regional Conflict
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Armed clashes in the city of Kidal in northern Mali between the Azawad movements and Mali forces are part of a long-standing tension in Azawad; however, the present moment is particularly precarious. The French are giving serious thought to confronting jihadist groups that are becoming increasingly prevalent in the region, expanding from the north of Mali up to Libya. Libya is experiencing increasing levels of armed unrest and Niger is still in the midst of a fragile peace process. The region’s governments are preoccupied with the war on Boko Haram, whose resources and activities have increased. In addition, numerous other parties have entered the crisis with conflicting agendas: Algeria, which has historically had a major influence in the Azawad region; Morocco, which recently began to creep economically into the Sahel region; and Mauritania, which has a close relationship with some of Azawad society’s components and a hidden hand in the insurgency.
- Topic:
- Government, Insurgency, Armed Conflict, and Destabilization
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Mali, and Niger
98. Sudan: Security Crackdown Puts Dialogue at Risk
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Arrests of leading opposition figures, including Sadiq al-Mahdi, head of the National Ummah Party and imam of the Ansar sect, and Ibrahim Sheikh, chair of the Sudanese Congress Party, have cast doubt on current transformations in the Sudanese political landscape. The government recently resumed restrictions on press freedoms and suspended the newly launched al-Saiha newspaper which had waged a widely-publicised media campaign after exposing extensive corruption in government agencies. Perhaps the most important development casting doubt on the political landscape is the expanding pivotal role played by security forces and the National Intelligence Service in politics and the military. These incidents raise questions about the government’s commitment to change and further complicate the country’s political landscape. The likely repercussions may be a paper reshuffle in the political game, with a reshaped balance of power as an alternative to escalation during a time the public is hoping the Sudanese National Dialogue Initiative will succeed.
- Topic:
- Security, Government, Politics, and Freedom
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Sudan
99. Turkey’s Next President: Contenders and Calculations
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 07-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- Turkey’s presidential elections on 10 August 2014 will not only be the country’s first direct election for the presidency, but also the first election with no candidate from the traditional Kemalist party. There are currently three candidates in the running: Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan from the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), Dr. Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu, jointly nominated by the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), and Salahuddin Dimirtash, co-chair of the Kurdish Peace and Democracy Party (BDP).
- Topic:
- Domestic Politics, Kurds, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and Presidential Elections
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
100. Gaza, Round Three: Limits of Israeli Power
- Author:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Al Jazeera Center for Studies
- Abstract:
- On 13 July 2014, five days after the start of the third Israeli war against the Gaza Strip, Haaretz, known for its liberal Zionist orientation, published an editorial calling on the Netanyahu government to announce that Israel had achieved its objectives. This editorial also implicitly called for him to stop the war. The editorial told Netanyahu and his government that the war had failed and that there was no justification for its continuation because that would lead to further failure. In fact, the heavy material damages inflicted by the Gaza rockets and the ability of such rockets to paralyse many aspects of life in Israeli towns and cities, in addition to dozens of international airlines suspending their flights to Tel Aviv airport, had brought Netanyahu’s war to a stalemate. This paper addresses the reasons Netanyahu decided to go to war, why it quickly become evident that this war would fail, and why the failure of Netanyahu’s war has become a double failure for Egypt, which has now clearly indicated that it is closer to the Israeli government than to its Palestinian brothers.
- Topic:
- War, Armed Forces, Geopolitics, and Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Gaza, and Egypt