Although all indications are that most of the principal players favour a political resolution, the military situation will remain volatile as long as Haftar’s forces are in Sirte and remain in control of the economically vital oil region.
The most likely scenario is for the UAE to take advantage of the agreement in areas such as advanced technology, weapons acquisitions and intelligence cooperation, as well as agriculture and health while avoiding military bases and joint defence agreements.
Topic:
Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Peace, and Trade
A group of Malian soldiers overthrew President Keita and formed a committee to lead the country. This was welcomed internally and denounced externally. However, their mission now faces domestic and foreign pressures that necessitate them to find a consensual solution to this crisis.
Despite the recent escalation and the stark divide between their vision of their interests and roles, both Turkey and Egypt realise that a direct clash would be damaging for both of them. In fact, there are indications that both states are more pragmatic than their bellicose statements indicate.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Military Strategy, and Bilateral Relations
The Turkish-Greek conflict over maritime borders is unlike any other in the world. Not only does it involve potentially vast wealth under the seabed in the Aegean and the eastern Mediterranean, it relies on diverse and competing legal sources and interpretations.
Topic:
Oil, Bilateral Relations, Natural Resources, Maritime, and Borders
Major Lebanese factions are urgently trying to fulfill French demands for the formation of a technocratic government that opens the door for international aids and alleviates public anger and increasing foreign isolation.
Topic:
Government, Bilateral Relations, Crisis Management, and Technocracy
Despite the ambiguity around the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh, the war produced clear winners – Azerbaijan and Turkey – and losers – Armenia, France, the United States and Iran.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, Power Politics, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, France, Armenia, Azerbaijan, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh
Although Joe Biden won the most votes ever in a national election, Trump expanded his base of support, receiving more votes than even Hillary Clinton did in 2016. This indicates that Biden is now facing the domestic challenge of the stark polarisation of American society as well as the challenge of restoring the international stature of the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Domestic Policy, Polarization, and Joe Biden
Turkey’s involvement in various conflicts is a reflection of the Erdogan Doctrine that was formed by internal transformations that have led to the creation of a sophisticated military industry and a prosperous economy and shifted its view of its external role as an independent regional power.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Economy, Conflict, Erdogan, and Regional Power
The conflict in Sudan is now between two competing visions: where Bashir believes no political change is needed to address the crisis, the protestors are adamant that it can only be resolved with his departure. The question is which of these two positions will be victorious.