In addition to the direct losses – both human lives and damage to buildings and infrastructure – domestically, the earthquake may have implications for the coming presidential and parliamentary elections. In terms of foreign policy, it triggered a quasi-coup in Turkey’s regional and international relations.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Natural Disasters, Infrastructure, Elections, and Earthquake
With all parties still clinging to their demands, there is no end in sight to the war: Russia wants to cement its control over four Ukrainian provinces, win recognition of its sovereignty over Crimea, and secure guarantees for Ukrainian neutrality. Ukraine wants a definitive end to hostilities, the withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory (including Crimea), and negotiations on its strategic future.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Conflict, Regional Security, and Russia-Ukraine War
If Erdogan and the AKP lose the election, the old class will return to power in a spirit of vengeance, armed with the legal and coercive tools of the state, which even Kilicdaroglu and his allies may be unable to restrain. If the People’s Alliance is victorious, it will have five full years to groom capable heirs who can preserve the gains made by the conservative Turkish majority in the past two decades and faithfully follow in the AKP’s footsteps.
Topic:
Elections, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, AKP, and Parliament
It is clear that identity politics still carry much weight in Turkey, that the conservative voting bloc remains the largest, and that the majority of this bloc continues to believe in Erdogan and his ability to lead the country.
Topic:
Elections, Leadership, Domestic Politics, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
While Russia demands a written guarantee that Ukraine will not be offered NATO membership, Western countries are warning it of dire consequences if it launches a war on Ukraine. The balance of power between the two parties, Russia and the West, may remain on the verge of collapse, leaving Ukraine unstable and Ukrainian leadership unable to control the entire country.
Whether Russian adventure in Ukraine proves to be a success or a failure, the integration of Russia into Europe has come to a halt. Europe will face division once again, albeit along lines that differ greatly from those of the Cold War.
Topic:
NATO, Integration, Post Cold War, and Russia-Ukraine War
The Russian invasion of Ukraine in its second month witnessed several developments, including the failure of the Russian forces to achieve a quick and decisive military victory and the Russian leadership's reduction of its primary objectives.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Armed Conflict, and Russia-Ukraine War
While Saied initially had popular momentum behind his programme—he came into office in 2019 with a whopping 72 percent of the vote—his popularity has eroded sharply over the last year as many Tunisians have lost faith in his ability to address economic woes, improve living conditions and fight corruption.
Topic:
Corruption, Constitution, Referendum, and Autocracy
Russia and China no longer need to play by the rules of the Euro-American international order. It is therefore likely that in this uncertain period of flux, the major four powers will vie to win friends and allies, giving second-tier powers like Turkey and India more influence if they can ably manage their foreign relations and avoid unnecessary alignment with any of the four major powers.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Power Politics, Strategic Competition, and Russia-Ukraine War
As the date of elections approaches, the political and economic landscape will undoubtedly come into clearer focus. But at this point, amid so many uncertainties, it is still too early to predict electoral outcomes with any confidence.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Elections, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan
The failed coup attempt in Sudan expanded dispute between the partners in power, the military and the civilians, who both sought to use it to lead the transitional phase as per their own priorities.
Topic:
Politics, Coup, Civilians, Transition, and Military
Swift reconciliations initiated by regimes with the purpose of cutting their losses and shoring up their own sources of power are not enough to establish enduring stability and a genuinely cooperative regional order.
Topic:
Political stability, Conflict, Reconciliation, and Regional Politics
As with any economic or fiscal policy, Erdogan is taking a risk, betting that his vision can turn the Turkish economy around. The only problem is that with presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for June 2023, he has just 18 months to prove the efficacy of his policies.
Topic:
Economy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Fiscal Policy, and Currency
Turkey supported Northern Cyprus’s call for a two-state solution to the nearly half-decade-old conflict on the island due to the the failure of negotiations over the past years on the federal solution and geopolitical changes in the eastern Mediterranean.
Topic:
Geopolitics, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Negotiation
Tunisian President Saied undertook exceptional measures to assume all powers, causing sharp internal and external polarisation between those who consider them an infringement of the democratic system and those who consider them necessary measures necessitated by the deteriorating conditions.
The Taliban was able to establish control over Afghanistan with surprising speed due to the collapse of solidarity between the forces opposing them. Nonetheless, its leaders were keen to allay the fears of both the Afghans and external forces to gain political legitimacy internally and externally.
Topic:
Politics, Taliban, Conflict, and Legitimacy
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, South Asia, and United States of America
The Egyptian, Iraqi, and Jordanian leaderships continue to seek enhanced cooperation among them, as if reviving the Arab alliance that they had formed in the past, in order to overcome unfavourable changes in the regional environment.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Arab Countries, Leadership, and Alliance
As long as Turkey pursues its regional ambitions, any understandings with the US and the West will necessarily have a hard ceiling. However, Ankara seems to be pursuing a more conciliatory policy in the region and in its relations with the West for both economic and strategic reasons.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Bilateral Relations, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Rapprochement, Strategic Interests, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
The Ever Given incident showed Egyptians that the centrality of the Suez Canal is not necessarily a fact of nature. If Egypt does not take action to maintain the canal and make it more attractive, it could give competitors the opportunity to make their projects for alternative routes a reality.
Ending the coronavirus pandemic is not only about the technical issue of vaccine development. The challenge is multidimensional, involving a global proprietary pharmaceutical system and an exclusive, nationalist tendency in wealthy, prosperous states.
Topic:
Nationalism, Vaccine, COVID-19, Health Crisis, and Pharmaceuticals