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121. Social Policy Responses During COVID-19 in East Asia and Beyond from a Comparative Perspective

Author:
Julia Shu-Huah Wang and Qin Gao
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
January 21, 2026 — Julia Shu-Huah Wang examines how Mainland China, Taiwan, and Hong Kong responded to COVID-19 compared to other countries. Drawing on two projects, she analyzes (1) model family data from East Asia, the U.S., and Europe to trace social policy changes before, during, and after the pandemic, and (2) country-level indicators across two decades from over 140 countries using panel regression. The presentation highlights cross-national differences in the design and effectiveness of social policy responses. Speaker: Julia Shu-Huah Wang, Associate Professor, National Taiwan University Moderator: Qin Gao, Maurice V. Russell Professor of Social Policy and Social Work Practice; Acting Director of the Asian American Initiative; Associate Dean for Doctoral Education; Director of China Center for Social Policy, Columbia School of Social Work
Topic:
Social Policy, Crisis Management, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Taiwan, Asia, and Hong Kong

122. From Mao to Now: China's 20th-Century Global Development Finance

Author:
Austin M. Strange and (Zoe) Liu Zongyuan
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
March 25, 2026 — The nature, aims, and impacts of Chinese overseas aid and lending have attracted major policy and scholarly attention since 2000. However, the first 50 years of China's international development cooperation are often omitted from discussion. The University of Hong Kong's Austin Strange introduces a dataset on China's 20th-century development finance, including approximately 4,000 projects in over 130 countries, and shows how these data can be analyzed to enrich theoretical and empirical research on Chinese development finance in international relations.
Topic:
International Relations, International Cooperation, Mao Zedong, and Development Finance
Political Geography:
China and Asia

123. The Future of China-Russia Relations

Author:
Thomas Eder and Elizabeth Wishnick
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
March 26, 2026 — What does China('s leadership) stand to gain or lose by remaining close to Russia? Thomas Eder's presentation explores energy and broader economic ties, Russia's potential role in conflicts involving China in the Indo-Pacific, and the joint promotion of (global) governance ideas. It also address the realities of China’s and Russia’s presence and cooperation in the Arctic, as well as consequences of their deeper bilateral ties for China-Europe ties and China's regional security interests in East Asia.
Topic:
Economics, Bilateral Relations, Governance, Energy, and Regional Security
Political Geography:
Russia, China, and Asia

124. E-Waste as a U.S. Social Policy Challenge: Addressing Inequity, Governance Gaps, and Consumer Rights Through a Repair-Reuse-Regulate Framework

Author:
Cynthia Norgbey
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
Electronic waste (e-waste) is one of the most rapidly growing waste streams in the United States, creating pressing environmental, economic, and social challenges. The United States generates over seven million tons of e-waste each year, and has a largely unregulated system, with significant amounts of e-waste burned, landfilled, or exported to countries with weaker environmental protections. The current system is fragmented and inequitable, producing pollution, depleting resources, and perpetuating environmental injustice for both domestic and overseas communities. Without a unified federal policy, structural gaps harm consumers, communities, and the environment. The United States lacks enforceable right-to-repair laws, manufacturers face inconsistent accountability for recycling and reuse, and export loopholes allow toxic e-waste to be shipped overseas with minimal transparency. In contrast, countries in the European Union are modernizing their electronics economy through comprehensive laws that establish minimum standards for repair rights, data transparency, and producer responsibility. This paper proposes a Three-Pillar Strategy for creating an equitable and circular e-waste management system in the United States.: Repair: Enhance consumer rights and equity through national right-to-repair legislation, including requirements for parts availability, diagnostic tools, and restrictions on anti-repair practices. State-level laws in Minnesota and New York provide models. Reuse: Incentivize reuse and refurbishment at the federal level by formally recognizing it as a distinct category in the waste hierarchy, building infrastructure in schools and community institutions, and collecting consistent data on secondary markets. Regulate: Enact a national Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) framework with clear standards on takeback, design-for-recycling, and export transparency. This includes updating federal regulations and aligning U.S. law with the Basel Convention. The three-pillar approach addresses socially equitable sustainability at upstream, midstream, and downstream intervention points. Using qualitative content analysis of 23 policy documents, this paper analyzes how repair, reuse, and producer responsibility instruments are distributed across U.S. federal and state governance levels, identifying structural gaps from fragmentation and contributing to scholarship on environmental governance and extended producer responsibility. Building on these findings, the paper advances a three-pillar framework: Repair, Reuse, and Regulate, that calls for a federally coordinated approach integrating national right-to-repair legislation, reuse and refurbishment infrastructure development, and a comprehensive producer responsibility system to address these governance gaps.
Topic:
Governance, Regulation, Social Policy, Waste, Electronic Waste (E-Waste), and Consumer Rights
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

125. Piloting a Preventive Mental Health Assessment Intervention for Left-Behind Families in the Philippines

Author:
Do Minh Anh, Pragya Prachi, Anne Marie Teodosio Rey, and Wu Xiao
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
The negative psychosocial impacts of parental migration on left-behind children (LBC) presents an urgent opportunity for preventive care and systemic reform. In high-migration countries such as the Philippines, LBC face heightened risks of emotional distress, attachment disruption, and poor academic performance. The substitute caregivers, often extended family members, are frequently ill-equipped to provide consistent supervision and emotional support offered by parents. Despite growing concern, programmatic gaps persist due to limited data reporting and analysis on LBC and their caregivers. This paper recommends a scalable Mental Health Assessment and Screening Tool (MHAST) for LBC and their caregivers, integrated into the existing digital infrastructure of the Philippine Department of Migrant Workers (DMW). The intervention builds on the DMW Mobile Application platform to embed mandatory caregiver arrangement and link school-aged LBC (ages 5-17) to well-being assessments administered through schools. Using two standardized screening instruments from the Child and Youth Resilience Measure Revised (CYRM-R) and the Zarit Burden Interview (ZBI-22), these tools identify flags in emotional distress, psychological risks, and caregiving capacity to triage families into four tiers of need to activate interventions ranging from informational resources to referrals for specialized care. In partnership with schools, NGOs, and government agencies, this tool has the potential to operate at both service delivery and policy planning levels. It provides targeted support for LBC and caregivers while generating standardized, large-scale data on caregiving quality and child well-being. This data infrastructure strengthens evidence-based policymaking across child protection, labor migration, education, and public health domains. Its digital-first design and interagency implementation model ensure phased deployment and make the intervention replicable across various migration-affected contexts.
Topic:
Migration, Children, Mental Health, Resilience, Well-Being, and Digital Infrastructure
Political Geography:
Philippines and Southeast Asia

126. Transgressive Sexual Politics, Structural Homophobia: Wilders and Milei in the Global Populist Radical Right

Author:
Luca Ghislandi
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
This article examines how sexuality operates as a strategic instrument within the ideological configurations of the Populist Radical Right (PRR) by comparing Geert Wilders in the Netherlands and Javier Milei in Argentina. Both leaders appear to challenge the PRR’s traditional sexual conservatism: Wilders by portraying himself as a defender of LGBT rights and Milei by performing a libertarian, sexually transgressive persona. Yet, both ultimately reproduce structural forms of homophobia. Drawing on discourse analysis, frame analysis, and process tracing, the paper argues that these seemingly divergent stances constitute localized rearticulations of the PRR’s core triad of nativism, authoritarianism, and populism. Wilders’ “civilizational liberalism” weaponizes queer rights to define Dutch identity against a racialized Muslim “Other,” enacting conditional inclusion and rendering migrant and Muslim queer subjects invisible. Milei’s “libertarian anti-statism” fuses sexual libertarianism with anti-gender politics, using anti-elitist and market-oriented rhetoric to dismantle the state infrastructures that sustain gender and sexual equality, a form of institutional subtraction. Despite opposite performances–Wilders as celibate guardian, Milei as transgressive iconoclast–both mobilize sexuality to police the boundaries of citizenship, legitimize masculine authority, and reinforce exclusionary national imaginaries. The analysis situates these cases within broader global trends in the PRR, demonstrating that contemporary far-right sexual politics no longer depend on explicit moral conservatism but instead on the modernization of homophobia: maintaining inequality through the languages of freedom, tolerance, and civilization.
Topic:
Politics, Populism, Ideology, Radical Right, and Homophobia
Political Geography:
Europe, Argentina, South America, and Netherlands

127. An Indo-Pacific Lifeline? Outcomes of Canada’s Free Trade Agreements amid North America’s Economic Pull

Author:
Tito Almeida
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
Rising global protectionism has renewed Canada’s strategic imperative to diversify its trade beyond the United States, given its longstanding export dependence. While the Indo-Pacific remains central to Canada’s foreign policy and trade diversification ambitions, there remains limited consensus on whether the Canada-Korea Free Trade Agreement (CKFTA) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) have meaningfully increased Canada’s exports to partner countries. This study addresses this gap in the literature by estimating the impact of these agreements on Canada’s exports, and identifying which types of firms have driven these outcomes. Using a panel dataset of bilateral goods exports from 2010 to 2024 and estimating two-way fixed effects and difference-in-differences regressions, the article examines the short-term effects of Free Trade Agreement (FTA) implementation, while controlling for macroeconomic and institutional conditions in partner economies. Although statistically insignificant, this study found that Canada’s exports to high-income Indo-Pacific partners rose modestly after FTA entry, with SMEs recording the strongest gains. In contrast, it estimates Canada’s exports to middle-income partners declined across all categories of firms. With Canada aiming to double non-U.S. exports over the next decade, this article suggests that future studies on free trade agreements should continue to investigate partner countries’ levels of industrialization and the role of firms as drivers of export growth.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Economics, Exports, Protectionism, and Free Trade Agreements
Political Geography:
Canada, North America, and Indo-Pacific

128. Sovereignty in Exile: Deterritorialized Statehood and Adaptive Governance for Climate-Displaced Pacific Island Nations

Author:
Valerie Chua
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
For millennia, Pacific Island communities have thrived in profound interdependence with their natural environment, relying on the ocean and ecosystems for sustenance, cultural identity, and economic vitality. Today, climate change disrupts this delicate balance. Rising sea levels and extreme weather events accelerate ecosystem degradation and undermine the physical and economic sustainability of ancestral homelands. As land becomes uninhabitable, communities face mass displacement, forced to leave their homes—and even their countries—in search of safety. Because international statehood remains predicated on land possession, this loss of territory threatens to erase the legal standing, sovereign rights, and collective cultural identity of Pacific Island communities. This article advocates for the international recognition of deterritorialized statehood—a model in which nations retain their legal sovereignty, international recognition, and cultural-political identity without basing their legal claims on territorial possession. This model offers a pragmatic path forward for Pacific Island nations by addressing the realities of climate-induced displacement without compromising the sovereign self-determination of its people. To achieve this vision, the international community must work alongside Pacific Island governments to implement three key policy transformations: (1) legal reforms to secure sovereign recognition post-territorial loss, (2) institutional reforms to govern dispersed populations, and (3) community preparedness initiatives to ensure cultural continuity and political participation across diasporas.
Topic:
Climate Change, Sovereignty, Governance, Exile, and Climate Governance
Political Geography:
Pacific Islands

129. Resisting Digital Colonialism and Protecting Subaltern Agency in Africa

Author:
Sylvia Ayesu
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Public and International Affairs (JPIA)
Institution:
School of Public and International Affairs (SPIA), Princeton University
Abstract:
As African states accelerate digital transformation, they do so within a global political economy of data, artificial intelligence, and surveillance technologies dominated by foreign corporations and external regulatory norms. This article examines how contemporary forms of digital colonialism, characterized by asymmetrical data extraction, technological dependency, and externally imposed governance frameworks, constrain political autonomy and reproduce historical patterns of domination. Moving beyond narratives of victimhood, the article foregrounds subaltern agency by analyzing how African governments and civil society actors actively resist, negotiate, and reconfigure these power relations. Focusing on three illustrative cases in Kenya—the implementation of the Data Protection Act, the diffusion of Chinese-built smart city projects, and the rise of civil society-led data justice movements—the article analyzes how power asymmetries are negotiated within contemporary digital governance. It argues that prevailing global Artificial Intelligence (AI) and data governance frameworks inadequately incorporate African political priorities, thereby reproducing dependency rather than enabling sovereignty. It concludes by proposing policy pathways to strengthen African digital self-determination, including regulatory capacity enhancement, safeguarding transparency in technology procurement, and promoting civic oversight.
Topic:
Political Economy, Science and Technology, Transparency, Self-Determination, Extractivism, Agency, and Digital Colonialism
Political Geography:
Africa

130. A Tight Spot: Challenges Facing the Russian Oil Sector Through 2035

Author:
Sergey Vakulenko
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Since the beginning of the war in Iran and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have soared into triple digits, a state of affairs which will make life easier for Russia’s state finances and oil industry. The duration of this unexpected crisis is, of course, unknowable as of this writing, but the reversal of fortune has also brought to the fore several lingering questions about the outlook for the Russian oil sector that are all too often overlooked. Russian oil production grew steadily in the wake of the post-Soviet trough from 1996 until 2016, when it joined forces with other leading oil producing countries and created an arrangement that is now known as OPEC+. Production levels following the creation of OPEC+ have not followed a simple linear path, due to the COVID-19 pandemic and other headwinds facing the global economy.1 Russia tracked its quota reasonably closely, except for 2022, when it had troubles placing its volumes in the market, while rearranging its export flows from Europe to Asia as a result of the European embargo imposed for the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Notably, Russian production has been declining since late 2025, and the gap between quota and actual output has widened. This has happened against a backdrop of extremely low official prices for Russian crude, which had been approaching the lows of past crisis years: 2009 ($41.27/bbl in January), 2016 ($40.20 annual average), and 2020 ($40.17 annual average). Is the production decline linked to the fact that a significant proportion of Russian fields have become uneconomic at $40/bbl? In other words, has Russia’s upstream breakeven threshold been reached under economic conditions caused by the war in Ukraine, and if so, where exactly is this threshold? And what are the long-term prospects for Russian oil production under these circumstances? It is worth noting upfront that the production decline in December 2025 through January 2026 was almost certainly driven by exceptional circumstances rather than a deep systemic crisis. In all likelihood, the production dip was caused by the shutdown of Lukoil’s cluster of offshore fields in the Caspian Sea following Ukrainian drone strikes on three production platforms. Taken together, these three platforms accounted for more than 200,000 barrels per day: a figure that broadly matches the observed production shortfall. Nevertheless, the questions that this decline has prompted are worth exploring. In the near term, the abrupt rise of oil prices caused by the Iran war, some of which might persist after the end of hostilities, will bring a windfall both to the Russian oil companies and the state. Some of the windfall might translate into increased drilling expenditure and an associated production spike. But it would not change the long-term outlook and fundamentals of the Russian oil industry. The focus of this paper, therefore, is on the factors shaping the long-term trends, including: the oil revenue split between the Russian state and Russian oil companies; the cost of oil production in Russia, both operating costs and the cost of sustaining production levels; and the technical capabilities of Russia’s oil industry relative to its global peers. Both the current state and possible future trajectories of the Russian oil industry are path-dependent. Therefore, this paper will also examine the circumstances that shaped it. The central conclusion is that Russian oil production will soon begin to decline—slowly but steadily—and that this decline will be relatively insensitive to oil prices, which are likely to decrease as the world transitions to a low-carbon energy system. Russian output is remarkably resilient to significant price reductions; the country has the geological resources, technology, equipment, and expertise to sustain or even increase production. But the decline is driven by state policy, the investment climate, and OPEC+ constraints.
Topic:
Economics, Oil, Governance, Trade, and Energy
Political Geography:
Russia and Eurasia

131. Are Long-Term NATO–South Korea Defense Ties Possible? Transitioning From an Arms Exporter to a Trusted Defense Partner

Author:
Chung Min Lee
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
This study focuses on how the Republic of Korea (ROK), North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), and Europe are forging closer defense and security ties and whether such a partnership can be sustained into the future. South Korea has demonstrated that it is capable of exporting and investing in European and NATO security; according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), South Korea supplied 6.5 percent of arms imports to European NATO states (NATO-Europe) in 2024, a similar level to France.1 Conversely, Europe accounted for about 10 percent of South Korea’s arms imports in the period 2020–2024 while the United States dominated with 86 percent of all arms sales to South Korea.2 Based on SIPRI data, South Korea ranked tenth in global arms sales at the end of 2024.3 The main challenge for South Korea rests on rethinking its longer-term approach to strengthening defense ties with NATO along three main pathways: Ensuring greater interoperability with NATO weapons systems by deepening its alignment with the NATO Standardization Agreement through various measures such as the Mutual Recognition for Military Airworthiness (July 2024) agreement and becoming a member of NATO’s Science & Technology Organization (March 2025) and vice versa, so that European systems can be readily adapted into Korean weapons platforms; Encouraging Korean defense firms to operate in Europe with European governments, militaries, and corporate partners to localize production in Europe, similar to the strong foothold Korean defense firms have established in Poland since 2022; and Integrating, to the extent possible, with NATO’s intelligence architecture, including enhanced cybersecurity and cyber defenses; greater intelligence sharing over emerging battle management environments (particularly after the Russia-Ukraine war comes to an end in the foreseeable future); and greater institutionalization of intelligence exchanges, including South Korean assessments of North Korea and China and NATO analyses of threats from Russia. South Korea aspires to become one of the top defense exporters by 2030. Based on its world-leading manufacturing capabilities in automobiles, shipbuilding, steel production, semiconductors, consumer electronics, and nuclear power plants, among other sectors, its ambitions are well within reach. South Korea supplies arms to three main regions—Europe, the Middle East (mainly Gulf states), and the Asia-Pacific. Key European and American defense companies have been leading providers of defense goods and services in the same regions since the end of World War II. Compared to their rivals, ROK defense firms offer definite advantages such as price competitiveness, rapid delivery schedules, and thorough maintenance, repairs, and overhauls (MROs) systems.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, Partnerships, and Arms Sales
Political Geography:
Europe, Asia, and South Korea

132. Beyond the Hype: Assessing Hyperscaler Nuclear Commitments Against U.S. Energy Realities

Author:
John Pendleton and Mackenzie Schuessler
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Electricity demand is rising rapidly, along with growing enthusiasm for nuclear power. In addition to climate concerns and the desire for secure energy, these needs are driven in large part by the planned expansion of data centers for artificial intelligence and cloud computing. The United States is home to the world’s largest data center market and the leading global cloud service providers, including Alphabet (Google), Amazon, Meta (Facebook), and Microsoft. These firms—or “hyperscalers”—design, build, and operate massive data center facilities that support skyrocketing AI demands, but require large amounts of firm, scalable, and always-available power. This puts new pressure on electricity grids already facing capacity, reliability, and affordability challenges. As technology companies pursue aggressive AI buildouts, they are seeking innovative ways to meet their energy demands. Nuclear power has thus entered the conversation as one of the few energy sources capable of delivering the kind of firm, high-density electricity that data centers need while simultaneously allowing companies to maintain public climate commitments.1 The entry of hyperscalers into a rapidly evolving nuclear energy market introduces new dynamics to what has been a highly regulated and slow-moving industry. Since 2024, a series of high-profile agreements have been announced between hyperscalers and nuclear utilities, vendors, and reactor designers. These deals signal enthusiasm for the sector, but it is still unclear whether big tech is willing to make big bets on nuclear power. This paper explores how large U.S. technology companies are approaching nuclear power in the context of their energy strategies to meet the escalating demands from AI. The first section describes the approaches hyperscalers are using to secure nuclear energy. To date, their efforts reflect their preference to be energy offtakers (customers) over direct nuclear ownership or project development. The second section then assesses why these approaches have remained cautious, considering factors such as priorities, timing, and costs. Additionally, it considers key entanglement risks that big tech will need to confront including potential reputational exposure, nonproliferation concerns, and management of long-term nuclear waste.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Nuclear Energy, and Energy
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

133. AI and Democracy: Mapping the Intersections

Author:
Rachel George and Ian Klaus
Publication Date:
01-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
AI poses substantial threats and opportunities for democracy in an important year ahead for global democracy. Despite the threats, AI technologies can also improve representative politics, citizen participation, and governance. AI influences democracy through multiple entry points, including elections, citizen deliberation, government services, and social cohesion, all of which are influenced by geopolitics and security. All of these domains, mapped in this paper, face threats related to influence, integrity, and bias, yet also present opportunities for targeted interventions. The current field of interventions at the intersection of AI and democracy is diverse, fragmented, and boutique. Not all AI interventions with the potential to influence democracy are framed as “democracy work,” demonstrating the imperative for democracy advocates to widen the rhetorical aperture and to continue to map, identify, and scale interventions. Diverse actors who are relevant to the connections between AI and democracy require tailored expertise and guardrails to maximize benefits and reduce harms. We present four prominent constellations of actors who operate at the AI–democracy intersection: policy-led, technology-enabled; politics-led, technology-enabled; civil society–led, technology-enabled; and technology-led, policy-deployed. Though each brings advantages, policy-led and technology-led interventions tend to have access to resources and innovation capacity in ways that enable more immediate and sizable impacts.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Democracy, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:
Global Focus

134. This Warming Planet Should Learn How to Talk About Migration

Author:
Alejandro Martin Rodriguez
Publication Date:
06-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The places where people can live—with or without dignity—are changing. Extreme heat, droughts, floods, coastal erosion, and sea level rise, among other climate impacts, are reducing the area of the human climate niche, that is, the part of the world most suited for human life. Regardless of how much societies reduce their carbon dioxide emissions today, the locked-in effects of climate change will continue to impact them for decades, if not centuries. In this context, the World Bank estimates that more than 200 million people globally could be forced to leave their homes by 2050. Governments all over the world must design and deliver effective policy responses to the risks associated with this large-scale movement of people. However, policymakers are limited in their options by the prevalence of misinformed narratives on migration (see box 1) that can make the sensible policy paths seem unattainable.
Topic:
Climate Change, Migration, Mobility, and Carbon Emissions
Political Geography:
Global Focus

135. Getting Debt Sustainability Analysis Right: Eight Reforms for the Framework for Low-Income Countries

Author:
C. Randall Henning
Publication Date:
02-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Assessing the sustainability of developing countries’ debt is an essential task of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank, but it is also a controversial one. The two institutions are currently reviewing the debt sustainability framework for low-income countries (abbreviated as LIC-DSF). This paper provides a primer on the framework’s basic elements, an overview of critiques from a variety of perspectives, and analysis of selected issues, including the endogeneity of analysis of sustainability, analysis of debtors’ institutional strength, analysis of domestic political conditions, role and exercise of staff judgment, and collaboration between the World Bank and the IMF. The paper recommends eight improvements, including streamlining the institutional indicators, better separating economic analysis from political judgment, adopting certain procedures for applying judgment, and selectively introducing climate considerations.
Topic:
Debt, World Bank, Sustainability, IMF, and Global Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

136. Implementing the Biden Administration’s China Strategy

Author:
Christopher S. Chivvis and Senkai Hsia
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
When Joe Biden’s administration took office in January 2021, U.S.-China relations were in free fall. The era of presumed convergence had ended, mutual trust had collapsed, and the risk of escalation was real. The COVID-19 pandemic was raging. The central question was whether the relationship would harden into open and dangerous hostility or settle into a more durable form of rivalry. Biden officials viewed the inheritance of the first Trump administration to be a sharpened awareness of the China challenge but an underdeveloped national strategy and limited institutional capacity for that challenge. They set out to impose greater coherence, discipline, and durability on the U.S. approach to this crucial problem of American statecraft. At the heart of Biden’s approach was the consolidation of a framework for strategic competition with an eye toward coexistence. These officials accepted that China and the Chinese Communist Party are permanent features of the geopolitical landscape and that neither America nor China could meaningfully defeat the other without catastrophic cost. Their objective was therefore not dominance, but competitive coexistence—preserving U.S. advantages while avoiding war. That framing now shapes Washington’s statecraft and has endured even in the second Trump administration, albeit with some adjustments. The Biden team looked to technology as the center of gravity of their strategy. Building on but systematizing earlier efforts, they deployed export controls, industrial policy, and alliance coordination to protect U.S. leadership in semiconductors, artificial intelligence, and advanced manufacturing. For the first time in decades, technological advantage was treated as the decisive arena of great-power rivalry. This shift represents one of their most consequential legacies. The Biden administration also paired competition with sustained diplomacy—especially in the second half of its term. Rather than treating dialogue as a concession, the White House aimed to use it to reduce misperception and manage risk. Strategic communications channels were restored and military-to-military contacts resumed. This produced tangible gains, including improved crisis management and renewed Chinese cooperation on fentanyl enforcement. Biden’s diplomats did not aim to eliminate rivalry, only to stabilize it by convincing Beijing that strategic competition was the appropriate framing for the U.S.-China relationship. Without this diplomatic track, the competitive strategy would have been more dangerous. The administration also emphasized U.S. alliances, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Security ties with Japan, Australia, India, and the Philippines deepened, and the administration worked to improve military coordination. At the same time, the administration was cautious about market opening, judging the domestic costs to outweigh the alliance building benefits. The alliance network thus grew stronger on defense but less integrated economically than long-term competition may require. On military strategy, the administration took a maximalist approach that bolstered deterrence, but they did so without fully resolving a fundamental question: how much is enough? Investments in regional posture and advanced capabilities were substantial, yet the strategy leaned toward maximizing capability rather than defining sufficiency from a strategic perspective. A competition framework does not require primacy at all costs. Future administrations will need to determine how to balance deterrence with flexibility, fiscal sustainability, and escalation risk—especially as the depth of U.S. support for conflict with China can be questioned. Biden’s China policy was calibrated realism—neither naive nor warlike. It recognized that long-term competition will be decided more by American domestic vitality than by military deployments. The strategy’s enduring insight is that diplomacy is an important complement to sustaining technological leadership, economic resilience, political stability, and capable alliances. These ultimately matter more than rhetorical confrontation and maximizing military advantage. The U.S.-China relationship remains fraught and unsettled, but Biden established a structured rivalry that avoided collapse and created a baseline from which future leaders—of either party—can operate.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Strategic Competition, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

137. Duterte’s Populist Foreign Policy as Illiberal Defiance: Consequences and Prospects

Author:
Aries A. Arugay
Publication Date:
04-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Barely two months into his presidency of the Philippines, Rodrigo Duterte attended the 2016 Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit in Vientiane, Laos. The former mayor of Davao City had just swept the presidential election to become the first executive from outside of the Manila-based political establishment. Rather than reading a scripted speech, he launched into an impromptu tirade about colonial atrocities by the United States. Duterte went on to defend his violent war on drugs and rebut the criticisms of his equally violent purge of suspected criminals.1 The world was shocked by the bad manners exhibited by Duterte, especially his insult to then U.S. president Barack Obama.2 This was the beginning of the shift in Philippine foreign policy toward a more populist, illiberal, and revisionist posture—one that would last until Duterte’s presidency ended in 2022. This essay advances two core arguments about how Duterte’s right-wing populism shaped Philippine foreign policy. First, Duterte’s foreign policy was not motivated by an ideology, so much as by a performance anchored in symbolic defiance, personalized diplomacy, and selective norm rejection.3 Second, Duterte’s populist revisionism ultimately collided with entrenched structural constraints, including the country’s enduring security dependence on the United States, institutional resistance within the bureaucracy, and the democratic political succession that brought the nonpopulist President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to power. Taken together, these constraints exposed the limits of populist foreign policy in a small and militarily vulnerable state situated on the front lines of the U.S.-China rivalry. Since Duterte was elected, there has been widespread recognition that populism’s impact goes beyond national borders. In Europe, for instance, populists tended not to touch traditional foreign policy and security issues until the 2015 refugee crisis. The wave of populism that followed was marked by a contempt for the cosmopolitan European outlook that had long underpinned support for the European Union, liberal migration policies, and Europe’s reliance on the United States for its security.4 Populists on both the left and right are often skeptical of multilateral institutions because they restrain state power. Venezuela’s former president Hugo Chávez, for example, attempted to form alternative regional institutions in the Americas to counter U.S. hegemony.5 The revisionist impulse inherent in populism inclines its leaders toward foreign policy adventurism, even though abrupt shifts are uncommon given the durability of national strategic interests. Populist leaders also often exhibit a high risk tolerance—especially personalist leaders in command of highly concentrated state power.6 Moreover, they often see foreign policy as a means of weakening their political opponents and consolidating power at home. They also crave international recognition, which they pursue through “megaphone diplomacy” that foregrounds their personality and charisma.7 The burden of managing foreign relations is bearable for the populist up to the point that strategic reality intervenes, imposing itself in ways that leave scant room for performance. Populist politics, therefore, are unable to resist the water’s edge. This essay proceeds by tracing the right-wing populist currents in Philippine foreign policy under Duterte through three major international issues: disputes with China in the South China Sea, the attempted abrogation of the Visiting Forces Agreement with the United States, and the country’s withdrawal from the International Criminal Court (ICC). Respectively, each of these issues foregrounds one of the foundations of Philippine foreign policy that Duterte attempted to undermine: international law, the Philippines’ alliance with the United States, and human rights. The essay goes on to analyze how these foreign policy stances resonated with the revisionist orientations of countries that Duterte sought inspiration from—namely China and Russia. These revisionist narratives were reinforced in the Philippines through domestic disinformation networks that learned strategies from Russia and China.8 Finally, the essay highlights the implications of Duterte’s populist policies under the Marcos Jr. administration and examines the prospects of their revival in the future.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Populism, and Illiberalism
Political Geography:
Asia and Philippines

138. The French Far Right’s Foreign Policy: Big Ambitions, Uncertain Direction

Author:
Catherine Fieschi
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
France occupies a singular position in Europe when it comes to right-wing populist and far-right politics. The country is home to one of the oldest and most electorally successful far-right and populist traditions in Western Europe—from its pre–Second World War thinkers such as Charles Maurras and groups such as Action Française to the tax revolt movement of Pierre Poujade in the 1950s and now the political party known as the Rassemblement National (National Rally)—yet no right-wing populist or far-right party has captured the presidency since the Second World War. At the same time, in France of all European countries, such a takeover would have the most immediate and consequential foreign policy effects, given the extraordinary concentration of diplomatic and military authority vested in the French presidency itself. The case of the National Rally offers a useful window into the intersection of populism, foreign policy, and strong presidentialism. Specifically, it highlights the difficulties populist leaders encounter in building alliances, both globally and within Europe, and helps explain why populists may end up hedging on key foreign policy positions. The possibility of a Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella presidency, moreover, underscores a broader risk: that right-wing populism in middle powers could erode the very international order that has enabled middle powers to attain and sustain their influence. The differences between the National Rally’s two leaders—Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella—are also emblematic of a broader divide among right-wing populists in Europe: On the one side, there are those who aim to reshape Europe from within by steering EU institutions in a conservative-national direction. Hungary’s ousted Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni loosely embody this side, which in France is represented by Jordan Bardella. On the other side, there are those who reject the EU’s supranational constraints altogether. Matteo Salvini, Italy’s deputy prime minister, represents the latter, which in France is closer to Le Pen. What makes France distinctive is that this divide exists within a single party and between its two potential presidential candidates for 2027—with Le Pen retaining the loyalty of much of the party’s cadre, but with Bardella, despite internal resistance, also commanding broad electoral support.1 In France, the question of who will campaign for the presidency will therefore be critical.2 Le Pen—and her “brand”—remains the party’s strongest electoral asset and would likely have a better chance of winning a presidential election than Bardella. Yet her instincts remain more confrontational toward Europe and multilateral institutions. By contrast, while Bardella is more market-friendly and potentially less disruptive internationally, he remains—despite his popularity with voters—untested in the uniquely demanding environment of French presidential campaigning.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Populism, Domestic Politics, and Far Right
Political Geography:
Europe and France

139. From Digitalization to Forest Pedagogy: Innovative Educational Pathways for Sustainable Development in Poland

Author:
Szymon Godawa
Publication Date:
05-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
Education for sustainable development (ESD) requires new forms of teacher preparation that combine theoretical knowledge with practical experience. The aim of this study was to analyze and evaluate the effectiveness of workshop-based classes designed to develop micro-competences – understood here as narrowly defined, measurable components of professional competences that can be certified through micro-credentials in accordance with European Commission guidelines (2022). The research was qualitative in nature and was conducted within the interpretive paradigm. Participant observation and document analysis were applied, including thematic analysis of didactic commentaries following Braun & Clarke’s (2006) procedure. The study involved 70 fifth-year students of preschool and early school pedagogy, who participated in 15 hours of lectures and 15 hours of exercises dedicated to the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) of the UN 2030 Agenda. The results show that students significantly developed social competences (teamwork, empathy, communication), the ability to integrate theory with practice, and critical thinking regarding socio-ecological challenges. They demonstrated high readiness to implement educational innovations and to apply the principles of Universal Design for Learning (UDL). However, deficiencies were observed in entrepreneurial competences, particularly in planning and initiating micro-enterprises, which indicates the need to strengthen economic and career education in teacher training. These findings confirm that well-structured, experiential ESD activities are an effective means of preparing future teachers for the challenges of the 21st century. They also highlight the need to supplement curricula with elements developing entrepreneurial and systemic thinking, which are crucial for building ecological social capital and promoting lifelong learning.
Topic:
Education, Pedagogy, Innovation, Digitalization, Sustainable Development, Credentials, and Experiential Learning
Political Geography:
Europe and Poland

140. Resilience and Cross-Border Cooperation in Cultural Heritage Protection: The Lublin Triangle’s Response to Ukraine’s Cultural Crisis

Author:
Elżbieta Olzacka and Katarzyna Pasternak
Publication Date:
03-2026
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Nowa Polityka Wschodnia
Institution:
Faculty of Political Science and International Studies, Nicolaus Copernicus University in Toruń
Abstract:
The article examines how Poland and Lithuania supported Ukraine’s cultural heritage during Russia’s full scale invasion and clarifies the Lublin Triangle’s primarily political, solidarity building function rather than an operational delivery role. Drawing on qualitative analysis of official documents, institutional reports, public communications, and stakeholder interviews, it evaluates cultural sector responses in 2022–2023 with attention to delivery capacity, coordination, and sustainability. The study finds that targeted aid to museums, archives, and memory institutions was provided chiefly through bilateral and institution to institution mechanisms, while the Lublin Triangle consolidated political messaging without generating rapid tools for cultural protection. Across cases, core contribution areas included logistics (protective materials and transport), training (emergency safeguarding and evacuation), documentation (damage assessment and digitization), and international advocacy (UNESCO aligned actions and anti trafficking guidance). The analysis underscores the need to institutionalize hybrid, apolitical arrangements that couple governmental legitimacy with the flexibility and resilience of civil society networks, mitigating vulnerability to political cycles and sustaining cultural heritage protection under wartime conditions.
Topic:
Museums, Resilience, Heritage, Cooperation, Protection, and Russia-Ukraine War
Political Geography:
Europe, Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, and Lublin Triangle