Author: - CIAO Search Results

58101. Multilateral Market-Access Reforms of the Doha Round: A Preliminary Assessment of Implications for EU Agricultural Trade

Author:: Wusheng Yu and Hans G. Jensen
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The July package of the Doha Round of trade negotiations stipulates that a tiered-formula approach should be used to significantly reduce market access barriers across countries, implying that the EU would have to make larger cuts to its high external tariffs, in comparison with many other WTO members such as the US. This paper provides a preliminary assessment of the likely impact of the tiered-formula reform approach on EU agricultural sectors. Numerical simulations of a multilateral market-access reform scenario show that such cuts would lead to across-the-board decreases in intra-EU trade flows, as compared with a baseline projection. While intra-EU trade flows would decrease, the EU's trade with the rest of the world would increase. Yet such increases would not be symmetric – imports into the EU would increase more than exports, resulting in larger external trade deficits or smaller external trade surpluses in many EU agricultural products. Further, the resulting adjustments in member states' production and net trade positions are not equal: the new member states would generally lose part of their export shares in the EU market to external competitors, as highlighted in the cases of bovine meat and dairy products.
Topic:: Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

58102. What Prospects for the European Constitutional Treaty? - Monitoring the Ratification Debates

Author:: Sebastian Kurpas, Marco Incerti, and Justus Schönlau
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Following the success of the EPIN survey on the European elections 2004 (EPIN Working Paper No. 11), the authors decided to use a similar approach for monitoring the current ratification process of the European Constitutional Treaty. Accordingly, the findings presented in this paper are based on the results of a survey conducted among national experts associated with the European Policy Institutes Network (EPIN). As such, they are inherently subjective, but nevertheless wellinformed. The report draws on survey data collected in 20 EU member states, supplemented by additional sources of information on the remaining countries where available. While the actual outcomes may prove our findings wrong in one respect or another, they do indicate interesting developments and differences in the respective member states. The added value of this EPIN survey lies in its broad comparative scope and analysis rather than its offering an in-depth assessment of each national debate. (For the latter, special country reports are envisaged at a later point in time.) The EPIN Ratification Monitor project plans to publish regular updates on the rapidly changing situation.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe

58103. A European Balkans?

Author:: Daniel Serwer, Jacques Rupnik, and Boris Shmelev
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The Chairman recalled the reasons for holding this particular session. On the one hand, at the Thessaloniki meeting of the European Council (June 2003), the prospect was laid out of the Balkans being included, over time, within the European Union; hence, the title of the session. How that vision is to be fulfilled is obviously very much open to question, which is indeed one of reasons underlying the work of the new International Commission on the Balkans chaired by former Italian Prime Minister Giuliano Amato. On the other hand, short-term events are going to put the Balkans at the centre of European concerns over the coming months in the run-up to the final status discussions in mid-2005: the Macedonian referendum in early November, the deployment of European Union forces in Bosnia-Herzegovina (operation Altea) in December and the rising expectations of Kosovar Albanians following the October 2004 elections. To introduce the session three papers were presented.
Topic:: Security
Political Geography:: Europe, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, Balkans, and Macedonia

58104. The Food Aid Debate in Trade and Development

Author:: Andreas Schneider
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: It is generally agreed that making progress towards eradicating hunger worldwide is a moral obligation for the richer countries of the world. The instrument known as food aid is widely regarded as an important vehicle for providing assistance to needy countries. However, fresh debates in the present Doha round of WTO negotiations have brought a renewed interest in food aid issues. The Doha round is designed to put development at the centre of trade negotiations, and along with agriculture, to the fore among the contentious issues to be agreed.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance

58105. Who finances the Queen's CAP payments? The CAP as a dooH niboR Scheme

Author:: Richard E. Baldwin
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Thanks to the British Freedom of Information Act, the list of all CAP payments to English farms is public. It shows that the CAP is a dooH niboR scheme (that's Robin Hood spelled backwards). Table 1 records the CAP receipts for some of Britain's richest royalty. Why do royalty get paid? The CAP makes payments to farm owners, not to farmers, and about 40% of EU farmland is not farmed by its owner.
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: United Kingdom and Europe

58106. Industry Location and Climate Change Policy-Making in the United States

Author:: Thomas L. Brewer
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Within the United States, the locations of carbon intensive industries have important implications for climate policy. This paper examines the state level and regional patterns in the distributions of key industries – coal, oil gas and autos – and their implications for US climate policy-making. It concludes that the coal industry has a disproportionate impact on climate policy because of the distorting effect of the role of a few key coal states in national elections. The analysis is presented in the context of a 'pluralistic political economy' analytical model of the US economy and political system.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Environment, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: United States

58107. Technology in a Post-2012 Transatlantic Perspective

Author:: Christian Egenhofer
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The EU and the US have found themselves supporting two polar views on which strategy is the most effective in achieving stabilisation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: 'market pull' vs 'technology push'. As an advocate of the latter, the US asserts that the principal emphasis should be on technology development, financed through typical public R programmes. It argues that it would be preferable to invest in the short term in R and to adopt emissions limitations later, when new technologies will have lowered the cost of limiting GHG emissions. In supporting the 'market-pull' approach, the EU argues that technological change is an incremental process emanating primarily from business and industry, induced by government incentives. According to this logic, profit-seeking firms will respond with technological innovation.
Topic:: Development and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

58108. Capital Adequacy vs. Liquidity Requirements in Banking Supervision in the EU

Author:: Karel Lannoo and Jean-Pierre Casey
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The debate on banking supervision over the last decade has largely focused on capital requirements and solvency of financial institutions. The interaction between solvency and liquidity has been much less debated. Traditionally, it was assumed that once solvency was under control, liquidity should pose no problem. Banks with sufficient capital should be able to obtain extra liquidity from the central bank against adequate collateral if needed. Furthermore, the aim of the New Basel Accord to create a better alignment of regulatory capital with the risk to which banks are exposed, and the stronger focus on diversification, should eventually reduce mismatches between solvency and effective liquidity.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: Europe

58109. Is the IMF business model still valid?

Author:: Ángel Ubide
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Since the Asian crisis, the IMF has undergone a deep process of soul searching, trying to extract lessons from the experience. External criticism has been abundant, and basically all three of the IMF's main areas of work – surveillance, crisis prevention and resolution, and poverty reduction – have been called into question. Several years later, there is a feeling that not much has been achieved, and key questions remain unanswered. As the world business cycle matures, and thus the likelihood of further crises slowly increases, it is critical for the stability of the world financial system to discuss what the IMF's business model should look like.
Topic:: Development, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia

58110. The New Capital Requirements Directive: What pieces are still missing from the puzzle?

Author:: Rym Ayadi
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: After almost seven years of hard work to produce a new substantive piece of legislation updating the current banking regulation for European credit institutions and investment firms – the Capital Requirements Directive (CRD) – it looks like its timely adoption is still uncertain. The main problem is the dissatisfaction of Parliament with its limited role in comitology and in the Lamfalussy process, which has led it to suspend 'temporarily' the comitology provisions of the CRD, casting doubt over the future ability to amend the legislation. The European Constitution addresses Parliament's concern about ensuring democratic accountability in the comitology process in Art. 36. The pause for reflection on the Constitution prompted by the no-votes in the French and Dutch referenda has re-ignited the issue and is forcing EU institutions to seek a new inter-institutional agreement on this issue.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Europe

58111. Parties of Power as Roadblocks to Democracy: The Cases of Ukraine and Egypt

Author:: Madalena Resende and Hendrik Kraetzschmar
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: Political parties are the backbone of any functioning representative democracy. They are the agents that compete in the political arena for public office by offering programmatic alternatives to voters. It is not surprising therefore that an analysis of countries that have failed to democratise shows political parties suffering from a severe pathology that renders them weak institutions. In both the eastern and the southern neighbourhood of the EU, a type of party has emerged, the 'party of power' characterised by its dependence on the state, the absence of ideology and the linkage with specific sectoral groups. Examples of such parties can be found in Ukraine during the reign of President Kuchma and in present-day Egypt.
Topic:: Democratization
Political Geography:: Africa, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Egypt

58112. The EU's Fight against International Terrorism - Security Problems, Insecure Solutions

Author:: Thierry Balzacq and Sergio Carrera
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The investigations on the London attacks of 7 July 2005 have yet to clarify the intricate storyline of the bombings. Yet, the European Union has already set about tightening up its fight against international terrorism through policies that, unfortunately, compound the difficulty of addressing the challenge. The problems arise partly because the policies put forward do not match the diagnosis nor do they fully comply with the principles of legitimacy, proportionality and efficiency. In addition, it is unclear how these Community measures will minimise the lack of trust among member states, which has put the brakes on the implementation of instruments adopted after the Madrid attacks. This relates to the vexed question of the extent to which intergovernmental initiatives such as the Prüm Treaty are compatible with a credible EU policy in the area of terrorism.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe and London

58113. The Black Sea as Epicentre of the Aftershocks of the EU's Earthquake

Author:: Michael Emerson
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: It so happens that the epicentre of the EU's referenda earthquake – by way of its external impact – has now been located exactly in the middle of the Black Sea. Paradoxically, this comes at the same time that the region has begun to show signs of possibly getting a grip on itself.
Topic:: Government and International Organization
Political Geography:: Turkey, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Bulgaria, and Romania

58114. Egypt's Moment of Reform: A Reality or Illusion?

Author:: Emad El-Din Shahin
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The movement for democratic reform in Egypt seems to be gathering strength. Some of the factors that would make a good case for democratic transformation are rapidly converging: the formation of a wide spectrum of discontented segments in society; the mushrooming of pro-reform grass-roots movements that agree on a clear list of short-term demands; and a sympathetic pro-reform international context. With presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled to take place in September and November respectively, will Egypt finally experience its democratic spring? The answer to this question still seems uncertain. The reform movement faces numerous challenges: the possibility of being sidelined by an agreement between the regime and external actors for the sake of stability and containing change; regime repression of the reform movement; and the radicalisation of the movement itself and the possible eruption of sporadic violence or chaos. For reform to become a reality and not another missed opportunity, certain structural changes and institutional safeguards must be introduced.
Topic:: Civil Society, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Africa and Egypt

58115. Climate Change in the US Government Budget - Funding for Technology and Other Programmes, and Implications for EU-US Relations

Author:: Thomas L. Brewer
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: With increasing Congressional support for funding climate change technology programmes, as reflected in passage of the Hagel/Pryor amendment to the energy policy bill in June 2005, issues about the climate change budget are becoming more salient. In this Policy Brief, Congressional and Presidential actions on several recent budgets are examined for the four principal areas of the climate change budget: technology, science, international and tax credits. The emphasis is on energy technology in particular, because of its salience in current policy discussions and its relative size in financial terms. Highlights of the findings include the following: Congress imposed substantial (63.3%) increases over the administration's climate change technology proposals for 2004 and then small increases for FY2005. For 2006, the administration has proposed reductions compared with the Congressionally-enacted levels in the technology component – reductions in both nominal and inflation-adjusted terms (-4.1% and -5.6%, respectively). The administration has also proposed cuts for fiscal 2006 in the science and international programmes (-2.9 and -19.0% in real terms). These and other differences in Presidential and Congressional approaches to funding climate change programs provide further evidence that the Presidential-Congressional divide on climate policy is continuing to widen. There is an emerging bi-partisan Congressional coalition in favour of increased spending on a wide range of climate change programmes. This shift will affect EU-US relations on climate change issues for the remainder of the current administration until 2008, and beyond as well.
Topic:: Economics and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

58116. The Real Budget Battle: Une crise peut en cacher une autre

Author:: Richard E. Baldwin
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The failure to reach a budget deal at the June summit may prove a blessing in disguise. The spectacular failure of the European Council to agree the last-minute compromise on the 2007-2013 Financial Perspective generated massively negative media coverage. In the short run, it will create huge difficulties for the EU, but things might have been even worse had they agreed.
Topic:: Economics, International Organization, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe

58117. Should ratification proceed? An Assessment of Different Options after the Failed Referenda

Author:: Sebastian Kurpas
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: After the resounding Dutch no-vote of 62%, ratification of the Constitutional Treaty has become even less likely than it already was after the political earthquake caused by the French referendum three days before. While the German Chancellor and the French President encourage other countries to continue with the ratification process, the British message is clear: Any attempt to proceed at this point would be pointless. British Foreign Minister Jack Straw found rather subtle words in the House of Commons to describe the situation, but other sources suggest that instead of wasting their time on a lengthy and useless exercise that would cost the EU even more support, European leaders should bury the Constitution at the upcoming European Summit on 16-17 June (or soon afterwards) and then settle for something 'more modest'.
Topic:: Government and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe and France

58118. Plan B

Author:: Richard Baldwin
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The resounding French 'non' will have important consequences for French domestic politics. It may also change the way EU leaders proceed with future Treaties. But I do not believe that it will be the 'political tsunami' for the EU that many observers have predicted. Two reasons buttress this belief.
Topic:: International Relations and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe and France

58119. The Europeanisation of the Transnistrian Conflict

Author:: Marius Vahl
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: To describe the Transnistrian conflict as 'frozen' is becoming less and less appropriate. Although the conflict remains unresolved, there have been a number of significant and at times dramatic developments in recent years, both in the diplomatic efforts to negotiate a settlement, and in the underlying geopolitical alignments and political and economic structures sustaining the conflict. It is argued here that these changes are primarily because of the European Union.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

58120. Political Integration in Europe and America: Towards a Madisonian Model for Europe

Author:: Mark C. Christie
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: While integration in Europe is, in several important aspects, already more advanced than it was in America during the decades prior to the American Civil War, there are important differences that make deeper political integration comprising all members of the European Union unlikely in the near term. A smaller group of EU members, however, is likely to continue towards deeper integration, although questions of constitutional legitimacy must be confronted and resolved. European integrationists may find the federalist principles of James Madison, regarded as the father of the American Constitution, valuable both for deeper integration and wider expansion. A Madisonian federal model for Europe could prove acceptable both to many euro-federalists and euro-sceptics and thus advance the cause of European integration. Ironically, a European federal union based on Madisonian principles would be much closer to the vision of many of America's founders than the federal structure of present-day America.
Topic:: Government and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

58121. EU-Russia - Four Common Spaces and the Proliferation of the Fuzzy

Author:: Michael Emerson
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: On the 10th of May the EU and Russia signed four 'roadmap' documents at summit level in Moscow, on the Common Economic Space, the Common Space of Freedom, Security and Justice, the Common Space of External Security and the Common Space on Research, Education and Culture. This was the culmination of two year's work since the May 2003 summit that decided in principle to create the four spaces as a long-term project. It was intended also to give new momentum to the relationship, after seeing that the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement of 1994 had not become a motor for anything very substantial, while the subsequent phase (in 1999) of swapping common strategy documents also led nowhere in particular.
Topic:: International Relations and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Asia

58122. What Could be Saved from the European Constitution if Ratification Fails? The Problems with a 'Plan B'

Author:: Sebastian Kurpas
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)
Abstract:: The pressure is on for the defenders of the European Constitution. Although initially it seemed as if referenda would only be problematic in countries that have a reputation for a certain degree of Euroscepticism, now even France and the Netherlands look like unsafe candidates for public approval. While there is still a fair chance that a majority of the French will vote 'yes' when actually at the ballot box, there is an understandable nervousness among prointegrationists. A French 'no' would be the most serious obstacle that any one member state among those holding a referendum could create. In the likely case that other member states besides France then reject the text – possibly for entirely different or even opposing reasons – it would become extremely difficult to 'save' the Constitution in its entirety.
Topic:: Government, International Organization, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe

58123. Treatment of Coronary Artery Disease: What Does Rationing Do?

Author:: Henry J. Aaron
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: Providing all beneficial care to those who need it is rapidly becoming unaffordable, even for a nation as rich as the United States. The highly decentralized U.S. payment system is unique in its lack of effective levers for limiting health care spending, and managed care has largely been ineffective. A different solution, considered extreme by many in the United States, is rationing. The need to ration healthcare has long been a reality in the United Kingdom where healthcare spending must be covered by an annual budget accounting for only 7.6 percent of GDP—about half the U.S. share. These decisions are perhaps most difficult in regards to treatment of conditions that are literally matters of life or death, such as coronary artery disease. This brief examines reasons for the differences in treatment and outcomes in the United States and Britain, and discusses the difficulty of rationing care in the United States, where a unique payment system now uses income from those with health insurance to cover the medical costs of the uninsured.
Topic:: Health
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

58124. Oxfam Publishing: What happened in Hong Kong?: Initial analysis of the WTO Ministerial, December 2005

Author:: Duncan Green
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The WTO Hong Kong ministerial meeting was a lost opportunity to make trade fairer for poor people around the world. Rich countries put their commercial interests before those of developing countries. Small progress in agriculture was more than cancelled out by anti-development texts in services and industrial tariffs. Most of the difficult decisions were put off to a further meeting in early 2006.
Topic:: International Relations, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Hong Kong

58125. Oxfam Publishing: Back to work: how people are recovering their livelihoods 12 months after the tsunami

Author:: Steve Jennings
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: A year has passed since the tsunami, and it is time to remember the many who lost their lives. It is also time to assess the effectiveness of the relief and reconstruction operations so far. This report is intended to outline the work that has been undertaken to restore and improve the livelihoods of tsunami-affected people. It recognises the poverty in which many people were living before the tsunami. It describes how the tsunami destroyed what meagre livelihoods these people had, and how it threatened to plunge millions more into poverty.
Topic:: International Relations, Disaster Relief, and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:: Asia

58126. Oxfam Publishing: Girls' Education in Africa

Author:: Sam Gibson
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Sub-Saharan Africa has some huge problems to reslove if it is to achieve gender equality in education, and fulfill the Millennium Development Goals related to education and gender. Conversely, the region has some of the most innovative and enterprising examples of initiative that promote gender equality in education. This paper focuses on sub-Saharan Africa and considers some of the most significant obstacles that African girls face in achieving the education that is their right. The paper then reviews the most significant initiatives–those that are 'gender-neutral' and those that have a specific focus aon gender equality–that have enabled African countries to overcome these obstacles.
Topic:: Development, Education, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:: Africa

58127. Oxfam Publishing: A place to stay, a place to live: challenges in providing shelter in India, Indonesia, and Sri Lanka after the tsunami

Author:: Alex Renton and Robin Palmer
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: On 26 December 2004, an earthquake off the Indonesian island of Sumatra triggered a tsunami that hit the coasts of Indonesia, Sri Lanka, India, Thailand, the Maldives, Malaysia, Burma, the Seychelles, and Somalia.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Malaysia, India, Asia, Sri Lanka, Burma, Thailand, and Somalia

58128. Oxfam Publishing: No Soft Landing: As China opens its markets, US subsidies are making life hard for cotton farmers

Author:: Phoenix Leung Pui Fung
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Cotton is an important crop for some of the poorest areas of China, and millions of cotton farmers depend on it for their livelihoods. Cotton's high economic returns have helped, and continue to help, bring many farmers in the poor western provinces of Gansu and Xinjiang out of poverty. Cotton production is not only essential to the development of China's textile industry; it is also a labour-intensive crop that demands a large workforce in rural areas. It has thus contributed to easing the pressures of rural underdevelopment in China, at a time when the country is faced with seriously high levels of surplus labour and lack of development potential in rural areas.
Topic:: Globalization and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

58129. Oxfam Publishing: Blood on the floor: how the rich countries have squeezed development out of the WTO Doha negotiations

Author:: Duncan Green
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Four years on, the Doha Round looks increasingly unlikely to deliver on its promises to the world's poor. Rich countries have sidelined developmjent concerns and insisted on, among other conditions, the "blood on the floor" rule, i.e. obtaining economically painful concessions from all countries, including poor ones. In agriculture, trade rules look set to remain stacked against developing countries and poor farmers. Talks on industrial tariffs could jeopardise the industries of poor countries. If the rich countries fail to significantly improve their offer at the WTO ministerial meeting in Hong Kong in December 2005, developing countries should not be expected to sign on to a bad deal.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Hong Kong

58130. Oxfam Publishing: Mind the Gap: Countdown to Viet Nam's Accession to the WTO

Author:: Mary Kirkbride
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Viet Nam is entering its final stages of accession negotiations. Although it is unlikely that it will achieve the goal of joining the World Trade Organisation (WTO) by the time of the Hong Kong Ministerial Conference in December, negotiators want a swift end to the process. Analysis of progress madebetween the two Working Party meetings of April and September 2005 reveals that Working Party members are continuing to demand further concessions from the Vietnamese negotiators. If agreed to, these concessions could have potentially damaging consequences for Viet Nam's ability to safeguard the livelihoods of its poorest people.
Topic:: Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Asia and Vietnam

58131. Oxfam Publishing: Euro-Med: Ensuring a fair deal

Author:: Nishant Pandey and Yara Abdul-Hamid
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: When the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (Euro-Med) was announced in Barcelona with a great fanfare in 1995, it was hoped that it would herald a new age in relations between the European Union (EU) and its ten southern Mediterranean partner countries, bringing unprecedented opportunities in the social, economic, and political fields.
Topic:: International Relations, Health, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Europe

58132. Oxfam Publishing: Why developing countries need tariffs: How WTO NAMA negotiations could deny developing countries' right to a future

Author:: Ha-Joon Chang
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The NAMA negotiations are heading towards a development disaster. If the developed countries have their way and force the developing countries to massively cut (or even altogether eliminate) industrial tariffs on a line-by-line basis in an irreversible manner, the future prospect of industrial development, and therefore economic development, in today's developing countries is truly bleak.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization

58133. Oxfam Publishing: A mountain to climb: What needs to be done to prevent further deaths following the Pakistan earthquake and to enable survivors to rebuild their lives and livelihoods

Author:: Ben Phillips
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The 8 October 2005 earthquake–Pakistan's biggest ever natural disaster–generated sympathy and support from people around the world. The Government of Pakistan reacted swiftly and with remarkable energy. However, major and immediate challenges remain. Six weeks after the earthquake, the response is not yet being organised in a manner that ensures that peoples' rights and needs are being met, according to international humanitarian principles.Donor countries need to provide their fair share of the resources and help required.The international response needs to be co-ordinated and led through a properly resourced, empowered, and staffed UN presence.The continuing relief and reconstruction effort requires civil authority management and civil society participation, and an early handover, where practical, by the military.All those involved in the response have an obligation to ensure not merely the restoration of bearable poverty, but 'reconstruction plus'– to build back better than before. The accountable management of funds and adherence to proper building standards are key to the reconstruction effort.The international community needs to fulfil its obligations not only in the relief phase but in longer-term reconstruction too, through a package of measures on aid and debt.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Asia

58134. Oxfam Publishing: Non-agricultural market access (NAMA) talks threaten development: Six reasons why a fundamentally different approach is needed

Author:: Duncan Green and Marita Hutjes
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The WTO's current NAMA (non-agricultural market access) negotiations will not lead to a pro-development outcome. Developed countries are demanding excessive opening to imports which, if agreed, could destroy local businesses and jobs in developing countries without bringing compensating economic gains. Poor-country governments will face balance of payments problems, loss of tax revenue, and downward pressure on workers conditions and rights, and their future industrial development prospects will be undermined.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization

58135. Oxfam Publishing: Green but not clean: Why a comprehensive review of Green Box subsidies is necessary

Author:: Liz Stuart
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Green Box subsidies, by definition of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), are not allowed to distort trade. This is why, under the terms of the Agreement on Agriculture (AoA), countries may provide as many Green Box subsidies as they like. ActionAid, CIDSE, and Oxfam believe, as this briefing note will show, that the EU and the USA are using this provision to continue to give support that is manifestly trade-distorting, thereby causing serious damage to farmers in developing countries. At least $40bn of Green Box payments annually are likely to be trade-distorting and therefore break WTO rules.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Europe

58136. Oxfam Publishing: Africa and the Doha Round: Fighting to keep development alive

Author:: Jennifer Brant
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: As the poorest continent on earth, Africa needs debt relief, aid, and trade to help it to alleviate poverty and achieve sustainable development. Unfortunately, unfair trade rules and supply constraints impede Africa's capacity to trade. As a result, it captures a mere one per cent of world trade.
Topic:: Development, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization
Political Geography:: Africa

58137. Oxfam Publishing: Make Extortion History: The case for development-friendly WTO accession for the world's poorest countries

Author:: Shuna Lennon
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This paper aims to make the case for a complete overhaul of the way in which Least-Developed Country (LDC) applicants hoping for accession to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) are treated by the WTO itself, and by the member countries that elect to join the working party dealing with the accession application.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and World Trade Organization

58138. Oxfam Publishing: Predictable funding for humanitarian emergencies: a challenge to donors

Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Every year the lives of millions of people are devastated by natural disasters, conflict and other humanitarian emergencies. 2005 has seen particularly extreme humanitarian emergencies including the tsunami, the Sahel food crisis, and hurricanes Katrina and Stan. Tackling these crises requires a range of actions including immediate humanitarian assistance and long-term development. This short paper focuses on one concrete way in which the global humanitarian response could be improved to help prevent avoidable suffering and death — the upgrading of the existing UN Central Emergency Revolving Fund (CERF) to a new Central Emergency Response Fund.
Topic:: International Relations, Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: United Nations

58139. Unmaking Iraq: A Constitutional Process Gone Awry, Middle East Briefing

Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Instead of healing the growing divisions between Iraq's three principal communities -- Shiites, Kurds and Sunni Arabs -- a rushed constitutional process has deepened rifts and hardened feelings. Without a strong U.S.-led initiative to assuage Sunni Arab concerns, the constitution is likely to fuel rather than dampen the insurgency, encourage ethnic and sectarian violence, and hasten the country's violent break-up.
Topic:: Government, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries, and Kurdistan

58140. Nepal: Beyond Royal Rule

Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Nepal is in turmoil and the monarchy is in question. King Gyanendra had calculated that his authoritarian moves since October 2002 would return order to a land wracked by Maoist insurgency and political instability but he has failed. The seven months since the royal coup have seen security degenerate under a royal government with no plans for peace and democracy. The Maoists seized the initiative by announcing a unilateral three month ceasefire on 3 September 2005. The international community needs to recognise that its calls for palace/political party reconciliation as the sole path toward stability are unrealistic. New lines need to be explored, beginning with support for the ceasefire and the tentative dialogue underway between the parties and the Maoists.
Topic:: International Relations, Government, and Sovereignty
Political Geography:: Asia and Nepal

58141. A Crowded Field: Groups of Friends, the United Nations and the Resolution of Conflict

Author:: Tessa Whitifield
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: This paper traces the evolution of groups of Friends—understood as informal groups of states formed to support the peacemaking of the United Nations—from the emergence of Friends of the Secretary-General on El Salvador in 1990, at a moment of post-Cold War optimism regarding the UN's peacemaking capacity, to the more complex (and crowded) environment for conflict resolution of the mid-2000s. The intervening fifteen years saw an explosion of groups of all kinds to support peacemaking, peacekeeping and post-conflict peacebuilding, a mirror of the extraordinary upsurge in a range of efforts to address global security in this period. Analysis of the groups is complicated by the great diversity they represent, including in the impact they have had on the processes with which they have been engaged. Indeed Annex I distinguishes four different categories of groups engaged with the UN in conflict resolution: Friends of the Secretary- General, Friends of a country, Contact groups and Implementation and/or monitoring groups. This paper's primary focus is on groups that have supported UN-led mediation efforts; however its analysis and conclusions embrace both issues specific to UN leadership, and broader considerations of the efficacy of group engagement in conflict management.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, and United Nations

58142. Evolving Threats, Evolving Policy: US Attitudes and Multilateral Institutions for Nuclear, Biological, and Chemicals Weapons

Author:: Natasha Bajema
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: The strategic environment underlying international policy responses to the proliferation of nuclear, biological and chemical weapons (NBC) has undergone dramatic and rapid transformation since 1990. This process was catalyzed by the dissolution of the Soviet Union and more recently by the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. The threat of proliferation has emerged from the Cold War era as a multidimensional threat involving multiple and distinct classes of weapons (nuclear, biological and chemical weapons as well as radiological devices), increasing access to dual-use technology and materials, exponential advances in science and technology and greater numbers of actors (proliferating states and nonstate actors). Accordingly, the new dimensions of the proliferation threat require diverse and multi-faceted international responses, i.e. a comprehensive strategy at the global, national and sub-national levels.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: United States

58143. Discussion Paper on the High Level Panel on Threats Challenges and Change

Author:: Shepard Forman
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: There is by now ample evidence of substantial gaps in the planning, financing and implementation capacities for the critical civilian components of complex missions. While substantial improvements have been made over the years in the international community's peacebuilding capacities, concepts, policies and practice continue to evolve within the UN system, including the international financial institutions, and among bilateral donors. In proposing the creation of a Peacebuilding Commission and related Peacebuilding Support Office in the Secretariat, the High Level Panel is seeking to build on and consolidate these advances in order to strengthen national as well as the UN's and international community's shared capacity to prevent state failure and more effectively manage post ‐ conflict peacebuilding.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Peace Studies, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States

58144. Football diplomacy

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the problem? While Australian governments have successfully built pragmatic ties with Asian leaders, a popular dimension to our engagement with Asia has in many respects been missing. This didn’t matter greatly in the past, but today public opinion is increasingly a factor in foreign policy. Governments must influence individuals as well as elites to address global problems such as terrorism and disease and ‘branding’ has become critical to a state’s ability to attract trade, investment and international political support. But a new opportunity to deepen people-to-people links with Asia has arrived in the form of Australia’s recent admission into the Asian Football Confederation. For the first time, Australia will have a significant sporting relationship with Asia. The question is, how can Australia best use this opportunity to enhance its regional image and engagement?
Topic:: Diplomacy and Government
Political Geography:: Asia and Australia/Pacific

58145. How To Saving APEC

Author:: Dr. Malcolm Cook and Allen Gyngell
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: What is the Problem? The Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum, APEC, has served Australian interests very well since its establishment in 1989, but it has lost its early momentum and is confused about its purposes. It faces competition from the new East Asian Summit. In 2007, Australia will chair APEC and host its 21 leaders in Sydney. How can we ensure that APEC is in good shape for that meeting and that it continues to serve the interests of the Asia Pacific region?
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Development, and Diplomacy
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific

58146. Iran, the international community and the nuclear issue: where to next?

Author:: Anthony Bubalo and Dr. Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The international impasse over Iran\'s nuclear program is entering a critical phase. The compromise being offered by the international community, whereby Iran would carry out sensitive uranium enrichment work in Russia, is unlikely to be accepted in full by Tehran. The hardline rhetoric of new President Ahmedinejad is further limiting the prospects of a diplomatic solution being found. As a result, the issue is likely to come before the Security Council. Once in New York there are a number of ways it could play out. But at this stage it is not clear what the Council would be able to do to force a change of behaviour from Tehran. Faced with poor options all round, Washington may feel at some point that it has to risk the uncertain results of limited air strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities to delay what it regards as the unthinkable - a nuclear armed Iran.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Washington, and Middle East

58147. Multilateral approaches to the nuclear fuel cycle

Author:: Lance Joseph
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The 1968 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) is meant to be underpinned by a three-part bargain: states without weapons were to foreswear them and the wherewithal to build them; states with such weapons were to get rid of them, gradually and as part of general nuclear disarmament; and all parties were to cooperate in the peaceful uses of nuclear energy.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Energy Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Science and Technology

58148. Angels and Dragons: Asia, the UN, reform and the next Secretary-General

Author:: Michael Fullilove
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The relationship between the UN and Asia can seem unfamiliar and distant. Most of New York's energy is consumed by the Middle East and Africa rather than Northeast, South and Southeast Asia; the international organisation can seem Atlanticist in orientation. On the other side of the Pacific Ocean the strict view of state sovereignty adopted by many Asian capitals leads them to keep the UN at arm's length. As always, however, the story is more complex: we need to differentiate between the UN's work in Asia on the one hand, and Asian behaviour at the UN on the other. Since 1945, the UN has contributed to the Asian security order but only at the margins, its security role circumscribed by power politics and Asian approaches to security. By contrast, Asian states have always been keen to exercise their prerogatives in New York, viewing their UN activities as a marker of sovereignty and a source of prestige. The Brief reviews this history and sets out the current stances of the three major regional powers — China, India, and Japan — towards the UN.
Topic:: International Relations, International Organization, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, India, and Asia

58149. Buying air warfare destroyers: a strategic decision

Author:: Hugh White
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The Air Warfare Destroyer [AWD] project is Australia's biggest proposed defence acquisition in decades. Cabinet has already chosen a company to build the ships. But before minsters go further and sign contracts, they should stop and ask two big questions which have not so far been properly considered. First, would AWDs do enough for Australia's defence to justify their cost, and what would we need to sacrifice to afford them? Second, are we buying them the right way? There are good reasons to think that the answer to both questions is no. The AWD's main purpose is to provide air defence for ADF amphibious operations in medium- to high-level conflicts. But such operations would not be a high priority for Australia. The forces we could deploy are small, and the risks they would face, even with AWDs, are daunting. And if it was necessary, amphibious operations could be better protected for air attack by proactive counter-air campaigns or fighter escorts. For coalition operations, AWDs would only add another option to a wide range of highly capable contributions we can already make, including submarines, maritime patrol aircraft, AEW and fighters. And AWDs would be marginal to any future development of ballistic missile defences for Australia. So AWDs would provide few important new military options. But their high price imposes big opportunity costs in the already-squeezed defence investment program. Unless Defence funding rises sharply, we can afford them only by cutting other major capabilities. The most likely trade-off is the JSF project; cutting that would have serious strategic costs. So ministers should not commit to buying the AWDs before they have reviewed the Defence Capability Plan as a whole to see the full implications for the ADF's overall capability. If ministers nonetheless decide to buy AWDs, they should look very carefully at how the project is being developed and managed. As they did with Navy's troubled Collins submarines and Seasprite helicopters, Defence is setting unique Australian requirements that will unnecessarily add to the cost and risk of the project. And they are experimenting with a new acquisition strategy that provides less competition and leaves more of the risk of the project in Defence's hands. A simpler and more competitive acquisition strategy would provide better value for money. The simplest and cheapest of all would be to buy overseas. There is no compelling strategic reason to buy AWDs, and even less to build them in Australia.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Government
Political Geography:: Australia and Australia/Pacific

58150. Building a democratic Palestine: an Australian contribution to legal and institutional development in the Palestinian territories

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The current fragile ceasefire between Palestinian militants and Israel has raised hopes of an end to four years of violence. To sustain that ceasefire both Israel and the Palestinian Authority must meet their respective commitments under the "Road Map for Middle bast Peace". For the PA this means preventing terrorist attacks against Israel and undertaking political, legal and security reforms. These reforms are also critical to meeting the Palestinian public's own demands for an end to lawlessness and corruption. Given Australia's expertise in legal and institutional development, the Australian government's commitment to promoting democracy and peace in the Middle bast and its sound relationship with both the PA and the government of Israel, Australia should lend what support it can to the Palestinian effort to establish strong foundations for a stable, prosperous and democratic Palestinian state.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:: Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Australia

58151. Balancing act: Taiwan's cross-strait challenge

Author:: Malcolm Cook and Craig Meer
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Taiwan is in the middle of a deep social transformation that is redefining the way its people identify themselves, how it sees its place in the world and, most urgently, its relationship with China. Taiwan's metamorphosis, and China's reaction to it, are making it more difficult to maintain peace across the Taiwan Strait. Washington and its regional allies, including Australia, need to understand these changes better and to incorporate responses to them into their policies.
Topic:: International Relations and Democratization
Political Geography:: China, Washington, Taiwan, Asia, and Australia

58152. Australians speak 2005: public opinion and foreign policy

Author:: Ivan Cook
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Australians feel positive and self-confident about Australia's place in the world, but we also have a realistic sense of our limitations and vulnerabilities. A vast majority believe Australia is 'a good international citizen' (82%), 'important in Asia' (82%), and 'well-placed to succeed in a competitive world' (79%), while few agree with the notion that we are 'unimportant in global politics' (37%). But three quarters of respondents also think we are 'vulnerable to external threats' (76%), and while the population is evenly split on whether we are 'independent minded', 65% think we are 'a follower not a leader'.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: Asia, Australia, and Australia/Pacific

58153. Sensible climate policy

Author:: Warwick McKibbin
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: The Kyoto Protocol enters into force on February 16, 2005. Nearly thirteen years after negotiations began at the Rio Earth Summit and seven years after the Kyoto Protocol was negotiated, this should be a cause for global celebration. Yet the basic tenets on which the Kyoto Protocol are built are flawed and leave it worryingly vulnerable to failure. Already proponents of Kyoto are looking for alternatives “beyond Kyoto”. It is no accident that it has taken so long for the Protocol to enter into force with so few of the major future greenhouse emitters effective participants.
Topic:: International Relations, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:: Australia/Pacific

58154. Beyond Arafat

Author:: Anthony Bubalo
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Lowy Institute for International Policy
Abstract:: Arafat may have suffered a lingering physical demise, but politically he has long been in decline. He lost much of his international credibility over his unwillingness to rein in Palestinian terrorism against Israel, and domestically his authority had gradually been eroded. While lacking an anointed heir, a succession plan is more or less in place. Political infighting is a possibility, though a desire for unity will probably prevail in the short term. But Arafat's successors will struggle to end the chaos and lawlessness into which the West Bank and the Gaza Strip have descended. Over the longer term Arafat's passing will remove the main obstacle to internal Palestinian reform. It has the potential to re-invigorate the peace process although it will not solve the fundamentals of the current impasse. It will also complicate Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's plans for a unilateral withdrawal from Gaza and parts of the West Bank, even if his instinct will be to press ahead.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Middle East

58155. Living with Global Imbalances: A Contrarian View

Author:: Richard N. Cooper
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Three propositions have become conventional wisdom in Washington and elsewhere. Americans save too little. As a consequence, the US current account deficit is unsustainably large. A necessary step to bring the global economy into sustainable balance is a significant appreciation of the Chinese currency, which in practice has been fixed to the dollar for over a decade.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Economics, and Globalization

58156. After Argentina

Author:: Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Argentina has finally restructured its foreign debt. Its credit rating is up, and its debt is back in the index. The new bonds are trading roughly in line with Brazil and Uruguay's, just above 400 basis points over treasuries for instruments of comparable duration. Argentina is raising new money from foreign investors. Earlier in the summer of 2005, it reopened a domestic dollar issue to accommodate excess foreign demand. Argentina and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) are on again. They might even sign a new disbursing program after the fall 2005 congressional elections. Like a bad dream, the 2001 default is fading into the night after three years of brisk growth and impressive fiscal management—even as the usual nabobs natter on about structural reform and unhappy bondholders.
Topic:: International Relations, Debt, and Economics
Political Geography:: South America

58157. A Currency Basket for East Asia, Not Just China

Author:: John Williamson
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: China recently announced that it is adopting a basket of currencies as the peg for its exchange rate instead of the US dollar. This announcement raises questions of how such a system works, whether other East Asian countries would be advised to follow China in adopting a basket numeraire, and whether it would be advantageous to these countries if they were all to adopt the same basket. This brief answers these questions.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

58158. Predicting Trade Expansion under FTAs and Multilateral Agreements

Author:: Dean A. DeRosa and John P. Gilbert
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper examines the historical record of eight recent free trade agreements (FTAs). It also investigates the predictive power of two popular quantitative world trade models—the single-equation gravity model and the multiequation computable general equilibrium (CGE) model—as applied to three major trade liberalization agreements adopted during the 1990s: Mercosur, NAFTA, and the Uruguay Round Agreement, using the Rose gravity model and the GTAP general equilibrium model. Both models are found accurate in some instances, but intervening influences in the wake of trade liberalization episodes confound the challenge of drawing a strong conclusion in favor of one modeling approach over the other. Between the "naïve" gravity model and "naïve" CGE model predictions, we find that the former tends to overpredict intrabloc trade expansion (especially over horizons of five years and less) while the latter tends to underpredict. CGE models remain favored for ex post analysis of welfare impacts and the direct and indirect linkages between policy reforms and the numerous other economic variables of concern to policymakers and the public at large.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements

58159. Prospects for Regional Free Trade in Asia

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Yee Wong
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Frustrated with lackluster momentum in the WTO Doha Round and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, and mindful of free trade agreement (FTA) networks centered on the United States and Europe, Asian countries have joined the FTA game. By 2005, Asian countries (excluding China) had ratified 14 bilateral and regional FTAs and had negotiated but not implemented another seven. Asian nations are also actively negotiating some 23 bilateral and regional FTAs, many with non-Asian partners, including Australia, Canada, Chile, the European Union, India, and Qatar. China has been particularly active since 2000. It has completed three bilateral FTAs—Thailand in 2003 and Hong Kong and Macao in 2004—and is initiating another 17 bilateral and regional FTAs. However, a regional Asian economic bloc led by China seems distant, even though China accounts for about 30 percent of regional GDP. As in Europe and the Western Hemisphere, many Asian countries are pursuing FTAs with countries outside the region. On present evidence, the FTA process embraced with some enthusiasm in Asia, Europe, and the Western Hemisphere more closely resembles fingers reaching idiosycratically around the globe rather than politico-economic blocs centered respectively on Beijing, Brussels, and Washington.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States, China, Europe, Washington, Canada, India, Beijing, Asia, Australia, Qatar, Chile, Hong Kong, Brussels, and Macao

58160. The US Trade Deficit: A Disaggregated Perspective

Author:: Catherine L. Mann and Katharina Plück
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The paper prepares new estimates for the elasticity of US trade flows using bilateral, commodity-detailed trade data for 31 countries, using measures of expenditure and trade prices matched to commodity groups, and including a commodity-and-country specific proxy for global supply-cum-variety. Using the United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database (UN Comtrade) we construct bilateral trade flows for 31 countries in four categories of goods based on the Bureau of Economic Analysis's "end-use" classification system--autos, industrial supplies and materials-excluding energy, consumer goods, and capital goods. We find that using expenditure matched to commodity category yields more plausible values for the demand elasticities than does using GDP as the measure of demand that drives trade flows. Controlling for country and commodity fixed effects, we find that industrial and developing countries have demand elasticities that are statistically significant and that generally differ between development groups and across product categories. Relative prices for the industrial countries have plausible parameter values, are statistically significant and differ across product groups, but the relative prices for developing countries are poorly estimated. We find that variety is an important variable for the behavior of capital goods trade. Because the commodity composition of trade and of trading partners has changed dramatically, particularly for imports, we find that the demand elasticity for imports is not constant. Comparing the in-sample performance of the disaggregated model against a benchmark that uses aggregated data and GDP as the expenditure variable, our disaggregated model predicts exports better in-sample but does not predict imports as well as the benchmark model.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

58161. Importers, Exporters, and Multinationals: A Portrait of Firms in the U.S. that Trade Goods

Author:: J. Bradford Jensen, Peter K. Schott, and Andrew B. Bernard
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper provides an integrated view of globally engaged US firms by exploring a newly developed dataset that links US international trade transactions to longitudinal data on US enterprises. These data permit examination of a number of new dimensions of firm activity, including how many products firms trade, how many countries firms trade with, the characteristics of those countries, the concentration of trade across firms, whether firms transact at arm's length or with related parties, and whether firms import as well as export. Firms that trade goods play an important role in the United States, employing more than a third of the US workforce. We find that the most globally engaged US firms, i.e. those that both export to and import from related parties, dominate US trade flows and employment at trading firms. We also find that firms that begin trading between 1993 and 2000 experience especially rapid employment growth and are a major force in overall job creation.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

58162. Tradable Services: Understanding the Scope and Impact of Services Offshoring

Author:: Lori G. Kletzer and J. Bradford Jensen
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: We develop a new empirical approach to identify tradable service activities. Contrary to conventional views of service activities as nontradable, we find a significant number of service industries and occupations that appear tradable and substantial employment in these tradable activities. Workers employed in tradable service activities differ from those employed in tradable manufacturing and nontradable services. Workers in tradable service activities have higher skill levels and are paid higher wages than manufacturing workers or workers in nontradable service activities. In general, we find little evidence that tradable service activities have lower employment growth than other service activities. However, evidence suggests lower employment growth at the lowest end of the skill distribution. There is also evidence of higher worker displacement rates in tradable services. Workers displaced from tradable service activities are different from displaced manufacturing workers: Displaced tradable service workers have higher skills and higher predisplacement earnings than displaced manufacturing workers.
Topic:: Economics, Human Welfare, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance

58163. Egypt after the Multi-Fiber Arrangement: Global Apparel and Textile Supply Chains as a Route for Industrial Upgrading

Author:: Dan Magder and Dan Magder
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Exporting through international supply chains was a successful way for East Asian countries to develop their textile and apparel industries in the 1970s and 1980s, but it is a less clear route for countries like Egypt trying to compete today. The challenge is particularly acute given the strength of competitors like China, and even more so in the post-MFA era. Some analysts suggest that "lean retailing" increases the importance of geography in exporting in the world of rapidly changing apparel fashion, in a way that could beneﬁt a country like Egypt with its proximity to European end markets. Using a supply chain model, this paper suggests that shortening lead times can indeed have an impact on proﬁts, but that the effect is not tremendous, being in the range of a 0.3 percent to 0.9 percent increase in proﬁts for every week of improvement in lead times. The study also ﬁnds that the business environment in Egypt lags key comparator countries in several areas that help the ﬁrms compete in global apparel chains, although recent reforms by the Egyptian government are working to address several of these aspects. It concludes by exploring to what extent geography, trade preferences, and local production factors may help Egypt's textile and apparel industry carve out a role for itself in global supply chains, and provide an engine to drive industrial upgrading throughout the country.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe, East Asia, North Africa, and Egypt

58164. What Might the Next Emerging-Market Financial Crisis Look Like?

Author:: Morris Goldstein and Anna Wong
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper addresses the following question: If a financial crisis affecting a group of emerging economies were to take place sometime over the next three years, where would the crisis likely originate, how could it be transmitted to other economies, and which economies would be most affected by particular transmission or contagion mechanisms? A set of indicators is presented to gauge the vulnerability of individual emerging economies to various shocks, including a slowdown in import demand in both China and the United States, a fall in primary commodity prices, increased costs and lower availability of external financing, alternative patterns of exchange rate changes, and pressures operating on monetary and fiscal policies in emerging economies.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and China

58165. Postponing Global Adjustment: An Analysis of the Pending Adjustment of Global Imbalances

Author:: Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Halving the US current account deficit as a share of GDP is likely to impose a burden of $2,350 per capita on the United States, which explains why US policymakers want to postpone adjustment. The rest of the world relies on the economic stimulus of a widening US external deficit, which explains why they are not eager to see global adjustment. The paper examines three scenarios of exchange rate adjustments, calls on the Federal Reserve to take more account of the external deficit in its words and policy actions, and familiarly notes the need for US fiscal adjustment as part of an efficient adjustment process. Complementary policies are required in the rest of the world. The paper discusses the pattern of recent international capital flows and proposes an international reserve diversification standard to remove some of the uncertainty about the management of foreign exchange reserves.
Topic:: Debt, Development, and Globalization
Political Geography:: United States

58166. Explaining Middle Eastern Authoritarianism

Author:: Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Arab political regimes are both unusually undemocratic and unusually stable. A series of nested statistical models are reported to parse competing explanations. The democratic deficit is comprehensible in terms of lack of modernization, British colonial history, neighborhood effects, reliance on taxes for government finance, and the Arab population share. Interpretation of the last variable is problematic: It could point to some antidemocratic aspect of Arab culture (though this appears not to be supported by survey evidence), or it could be a proxy for some unobservable such as investment in institutions of internal repression that may not be culturally determined and instead reflect elite preferences. Hypotheses that did not receive robust support include the presence of oil rents, the status of women, conflict with Israel or other neighbors, or Islam. The odds on liberalizing transitions occurring are low but rising. In this respect the distinction between the interpretation of the Arab ethnic share as an intrinsic cultural marker and as a proxy for some unobservable is important-if the former is correct, then one would expect the likelihood of regime change to rise only gradually over time, whereas if it is the latter, the probabilities may exhibit much greater temporal variability.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia

58167. South Korea's Experience with International Capital Flows

Author:: Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: South Korea's experience is unparalleled in its combination of sustained prosperity, capital controls, and financial crisis. Over several decades South Korea experienced rapid sustained growth in the presence of capital controls. These controls and the delinking of domestic and international financial markets were an essential component of the country's state-led development strategy. As the country developed, opportunities for easy technological catch-up eroded, requiring more sophisticated corporate and financial sector decision making. But decades of financial repression had bequeathed a bureaucratized financial system and a formidable constellation of incumbent stakeholders opposed to transition to a more market-oriented development model. Liberalization undertaken in the 1990s was less a product of textbook economic analysis than of parochial politicking. The capital account liberalization program affected the timing, magnitude, and particulars of the 1997-98 crisis. Despite considerable reforms undertaken since the crisis, concerns remain about both South Korea's lending culture and its authorities' capacity to successfully regulate the more complex financial system. The main lesson of the South Korean case appears to be that while the state-led model may deliver impressive initial gains, transitioning out of this approach presents an exceedingly complex political-economy challenge.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: Asia and South Korea

58168. Affinity and International Trade

Author:: Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This paper examines the impact of American public attitudes toward foreign countries on the volume of trade. The issue is whether popular attitudes, as elicited in these surveys, convey any information about trust, risk, or transactions costs beyond what can be explained through standard economic models. The results of this paper suggest that they do, with a one standard deviation increase in warmth of feeling associated with a 20 to 31 percent larger trade volume when evaluated at the sample means. These public attitudes are in turn correlated with indices of cultural affinity and political ideology. A one standard deviation increase in the democracy score is associated with a 5 to 7 percent increase in trade. There might be additional secondary effects if democratization was associated with an increased likelihood of the removal of sanctions or the initiation of preferential trade relations.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

58169. Reform of the International Monetary Fund

Author:: C. Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: It is a pleasure to testify before the Committee again concerning your ongoing oversight of the International Monetary Fund. The topic remains of great importance, and our Institute for International Economics will in fact be holding a major conference on IMF reform on September 23 to address a number of specific proposals for strengthening and enforcing the rules of the monetary system, improving the governance of the Fund itself, reforming its lending programs, and reassessing the ways in which it might be financed in the future. All members of the Subcommittee and staff are cordially invited to participate in our event.
Topic:: International Relations, Debt, Economics, and International Political Economy

58170. What Iraq and Argentina Might Learn from Each Other

Author:: Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Financial collapse usually triggers a flurry of market, academic, and policy innovation. The Latin American debt crisis of the 1980s produced the Brady Bonds and led to the rise of today's emerging markets. In the late 1990s, crises in Pakistan, Ecuador, and Ukraine helped teach the markets how to restructure international sovereign bonds. Crises in Mexico, Russia, Brazil, Turkey, and throughout East Asia raised doubts about the international system's ability to manage vast and rapid capital flows, and prompted a big-picture reassessment under the rubric “international financial architecture.” This included most famously the sovereign bankruptcy proposals discussed elsewhere in this volume.
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, Middle East, East Asia, Brazil, South America, Latin America, and Mexico

58171. After 'Non' and 'Nee': Plans B, C, and D for the European Constitution

Author:: Daniel Gould
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The proposed European Constitution, which was just voted down in France and the Netherlands, is technically a treaty containing far-reaching amendments to the present set of treaties governing the European Union. Article 48 of the EU treaty text currently in force specifies that any such amendments first be unanimously approved by the governments of the member states within an Inter-Governmental Conference framework and then ratified by each country. The first, intergovernmental step of ratification was completed October 29, 2004.
Topic:: Economics and Government
Political Geography:: Europe, France, and Netherlands

58172. The Payoff from Globalization

Author:: Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Paul L. E. Grieco
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The battle over the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA) promises a reprise of familiar themes. While contemporary commentators may connect their arguments to NAFTA, in fact the "modern" debate over trade barriers can be traced back to British Corn Laws. Enacted to protect land barons, the Corn Laws were finally repealed in 1846 to make way for what Martin Wolf has called the "first age of globalization."
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Central America

58173. Swiss National Bank Sales—Lessons and Experiences

Author:: Philipp M. Hildebrand
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: I am pleased to be in Washington today and would like to thank Fred Bergsten and his colleagues at the Institute for International Economics for providing me with this opportunity to talk about the recently completed gold sales of the Swiss National Bank (SNB).
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Europe and Washington

58174. Domestic and External Debt: The Doomed Quest for Equal Treatment

Author:: Brad Setser and Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: "Equality" has the ring of a basic value, an incontrovertible virtue. In international finance, equal treatment is enshrined in treaties and contracts. Of all the equal treatment aspirations in finance, none seems more essential to a lawyer than equal treatment of creditors holding identical legal instruments: if one is to suffer a default, surely so should the others; restructuring options available to one must be open to all without regard to the creditor's identity. Yet in the world of sovereign debt, local and foreign investors buying the same paper rarely achieve what anyone would recognize as equal treatment.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Government, and International Trade and Finance

58175. North Korean Human Rights Act of 2004: Issues and Implementation

Author:: Stephan Haggard and Marcus Noland
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: It is an honor to be invited to testify before this committee. We would like to begin our testimony by restating a simple yet compelling point: The absence of human, civil, and political rights in North Korea and the humanitarian disaster that afflicts its population are inextricably linked.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Asia and North Korea

58176. The Euro and the World Economy

Author:: Fred Bergsten
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: The dollar has been the dominant currency of the world economy for almost a century for a single overwhelming reason: It had no competition. No other economy came close to the size of the United States. Hence no currency could acquire the network externalities, economies of scale and scope, and public goods benefits necessary to rival the dollar at the global level. A similar situation for the United Kingdom explains sterling's dominance in the 19th century.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, United Kingdom, and Europe

58177. The US Economic Outlook

Author:: Martin Neil Baily and Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Oil prices have risen and are expected to remain high. Slow job and wage growth result in slow income growth. Low interest rates kept housing and auto sales strong after 2000 – borrowing future growth. No new stimulus from monetary or fiscal policy. The Iraq war and the terrorism threat may be a drag on confidence. Because 9/11 did not have significant macroeconomic effects, the impact of the war and terrorism seems to be mostly on oil prices No new stimulus from monetary or fiscal policy.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Iraq

58178. The Chinese Economy: Prospects and Key Policy Issues

Author:: Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: No abstract is available.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

58179. Global Economic Prospects: Slower But Still Solid Growth in 2005; Worries About Growth and Inflation for 2006

Author:: Michael Mussa
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: After surging to the highest growth rate in a generation, world real GDP is set to slow from a rate of just over 5 percent for 2004 to about 4 percent for 2005 and a tad slower for 2006. The economic slowdowns in several important economies in the second half of last year, including much of continental Europe and Japan, already make it clear that year-over-year growth will slow for 2005. But the continued strong growth of domestic demand in other countries, most notably the United States and China, virtually assures that global growth this year will not fall below potential.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, Japan, China, Europe, Israel, and East Asia

58180. Will Globalization Survive?

Author:: Martin Wolf
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Ours is not the first age of globalization. The decades before the First World War were remarkably similar to our own era. Under the aegis of the United Kingdom and stimulated by a host of technological advances, the world enjoyed an era of liberal trade, remarkably free movement of people, and almost entirely free movement of capital. The world also enjoyed an unprecedented rise in prosperity. According to the economic historian, Angus Maddison, real GDP per head rose at a rate of 1.3 percent a year in the world as a whole between 1870 and 1913. This is not far short of the improvement of the past three decades. As table 1 shows, only Asia and Africa, both victims of colonialism, failed to share in the rising prosperity.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and War
Political Geography:: Africa, United Kingdom, and Asia

58181. What Bond Markets Can Learn from Argentina

Author:: Anna Gelpern
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Argentina has completed the largest and most complex sovereign bond restructuring in history. Before the debt exchange, it owed about $82 billion in principal and $20 billion in past due interest. Hundreds of thousands of creditors held 150 kinds of defaulted instruments issued in six currencies under the laws of eight jurisdictions. Creditors owed just over 76% of the total, or $62 billion, got $35 billion in new performing bonds. Other performing debt includes $40 billion in domestic and about $30 billion in multi-lateral obligations. Argentina left behind almost $25 billion in defaulted principal and interest.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Argentina and South America

58182. China's Role in the Revived Bretton Woods System: A Case of Mistaken Identity

Author:: Nicholas R. Lardy and Morris Goldstein
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: According to a popular argument put forward by three Deutsche Bank economists (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber, here after DFG), one needn't worry about the sustainability of either the large US current account deficit or the undervalued exchange rates of a group of Asian economies (Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber 2003, 2004a, 2004b, 2004c; Folkerts-Landau 2004). In their view, the United States and the Asian economies have entered into an implicit contract—the so-called revived Bretton Woods system (hereafter BW2)—that can comfortably carry on for another decade or two, with significant net benefits to both parties.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

58183. Outsourcing and Offshoring: Pushing the European Model Over the Hill, Rather Than Off the Cliff!

Author:: Jacob Funk Kirkegaard
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Once again a specter is haunting Europe—not in the shape that Marx saw it but in the form of outsourcing and offshoring, which allegedly will empty Europe of the highly skilled high-paying jobs of the future. This working paper argues that the specter needs to be dispelled. Today, Europe faces challenges in the form of low productivity growth and low labor utilization/high unemployment. Outsourcing and offshoring, far from being a blight, are powerful tools to help solve the productivity growth problem and may also—provided the right structural reforms are implemented—assist in solving Europe's low employment problem.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Third World
Political Geography:: Europe

58184. The Potential of International Policy Coordination

Author:: John Williamson
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: International economic policy coordination is an idea that is not nowadays at the top of the international agenda. The usual idea these days is that if each country pursues its own national interests, then the world will do as well as possible: There are no exploitable bargains of the type "it will pay [both][all] of us to change policies simultaneously even though if one of us made the change individually we would suffer" available. Even if there are no opportunities of that type (let us call them type A) available, there might still in principle be the chance of gaining by subscribing to a set of rules: Country X might expect to gain more over time from countries Y and Z respecting the rules than it would lose at other times from being obliged to modify its behavior according to the rules. Let us call these type B gains.
Topic:: International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:: United States and East Asia

58185. Reflections

Author:: Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: My reflections on the new operating procedures that were adopted by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) on October 6, 1979, derive from my responsibilities at the Federal Reserve Board at the time. Those responsibilities included preparation of the international component of the staff forecast, analysis of economic and financial developments in other countries, and assisting the Chairman and members of the Board (primarily Henry C. Wallich) with international responsibilities in connection with their attendance at international meetings. Therefore, mine was and is an international perspective. I was not involved in the design of the new operating procedures, although I was informed that the project was under way.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and Emerging Markets
Political Geography:: United States

58186. Managing Energy Insecurity

Author:: John Browne
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: It is great to be in Washington again and a privilege to be invited to speak here for the first time. You asked me to talk about energy security, and I think the basic question is whether, to use the words of one of your recent papers, there is "a gathering storm" around energy supply, and what, if anything, should and could be done to avert that storm.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and Washington

58187. US Trade Policy in 2005

Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Some time ago, Fred Bergsten and I were talking about the fact that, if trade liberalization is to move forward and retrogression is to be prevented, the focus of the policy community and the public on the benefits of trade-in the full sense, including imports-and on the issues around trade needs to increase. The adverse effects trade has on some people are very keenly felt and often lead to vociferous opposition, while the benefits of trade for a far greater number of people are diffuse and usually little if at all understood-for example, by consumers-and seldom generate political activity on behalf of trade.
Topic:: Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

58188. A Revived Bretton Woods System? Implications for Europe and the United States

Author:: Edwin M. Truman
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: This note addresses three topics: (1) Do the recent musings by Dooley, Folkerts-Landau, and Garber (DFG), in particular their argument that the world is operating under a revived Bretton Woods system (BW2), provide a useful framework for thinking about international economic and financial developments and prospects? (2) What does the DFG framework imply for the euro area, and are those implications reasonable? (3) What does the DFG framework imply for the United States, and are those implications reasonable?
Topic:: Development and Economics
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

58189. This is Bangalore Calling: Hang Up or Speed Dial? What Technology-Enable International Trade in Services Means for the US Economy

Author:: Catherine L. Mann
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Globalization, always a contentious issue, has become even more so with media reports of U.S. service-sector jobs being outsourced to emerging-market economies, such as call center operations to Ireland or programming jobs to India. Traditionally, these jobs have been considered “nontradable” and therefore safe from the competitive forces of international trade and investment. But increasingly, technological advances are making it easier to buy services from other companies, even those in developing countries, where savings in the cost of labor or the opportunity to use the 24- hour clock to speed product develop- ment can be irresistible.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and Ireland

58190. Breaking Up Is Hard To Do: Global Co-dependency, Collective Action, and the Challenges of Global Adjustment

Author:: Catherine L. Mann
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Global imbalances have continued, indeed deepened, far longer than both researchers and pundits would have thought. On the US side, the current account deficit at about $630 billion (2004q1-3, AR) and 5.5 percent of GDP (2004q3) falls outside the oft-quoted range of 4-5 percent after which, research on industrial countries suggests, economic forces tend to narrow the imbalance. There is some-what less research on the persistence of global imbalances from the standpoint of the rest of the world, in part because individually most of those imbalances are not so notable. Clearly though, collectively growth in the rest of the world has come to be co-dependent on US demand patterns.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Economics, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: United States

58191. Current List of Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Other Terrorist Organizations

Author:: Mark Burgess
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Defense Information
Abstract:: The U.S. State Department's list of Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) began in 1997 as a method of tracking down and striking back against specific terrorist groups around the world. FTOs are designated as such based on a demonstrated capability and/or willingness to engage in terrorist methods that threaten the U.S. national security interests. These methods include attacks on U.S. nationals, and American national defense, military, diplomatic, and economic interests. The FTO list provides the U.S. government with the legal authority to conduct prosecutions against U.S. citizens, or foreign nationals within the country, for aiding — financially, ideologically or logistically — any designated FTO. FTO designation can also mean certain members or representatives of the designated terror group can be denied entry to the United States through visa rejection or other means. The United States also maintains the authority to compel U.S. financial institutions to freeze any assets linked to an FTO and to report them to the U.S. Department of the Treasury pursuant to Executive Order 13244.
Topic:: Human Welfare, Politics, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States

58192. State Department Reports on the Use of Child Soldiers, 2005

Author:: Daniel Schaeffer
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Defense Information
Abstract:: On Feb. 28, 2005, the U.S. State Department released its annual Country Reports on Human Rights. The reports detail information on 196 countries compiled by Foreign Service Officers abroad, domestic and international human rights groups, academics, activists, jurists and journalists that work to recount human rights conditions around the globe. These annual reports point "to the areas of progress and draw attention to new and continuing challenges" in the human rights realm, and are to be "used as a resource for shaping policy, conducting diplomacy and making assistance, training and other resource allocations."
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Third World, and War
Political Geography:: United States

58193. Law Watch: Abu Ghraib Court Martial: "Ring Leader" Spc. Charles A. Graner, Jr., Sentenced to Ten Years

Author:: Steven C. Welsh
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Defense Information
Abstract:: Spc. Charles A. Graner, Jr., on Jan. 14, 2005, became the fifth U.S. soldier convicted for Abu Ghraib prisoner abuse, all of them reservists. Graner, a prison guard in civilian life, was convicted at a general court martial for maltreatment of persons subject to his orders, conspiracy, assault, indecent acts and dereliction of duty. Unlike several earlier trials for Abu Ghraib prisoner abuse, this trial took place not in Iraq but at Fort Hood, Texas. The jury of 10 officers and enlisted men, all of whom had served in Iraq or Afghanistan, sentenced Graner on Jan. 15, 2004, to 10 years in prison (five less than the maximum possible) and to reduction in rank to private, dishonorable discharge and forfeiture of pay and allowances.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Human Rights, and War
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, United States, Middle East, Arabia, and Arab Countries

58194. China and the World Economy Workshop. Conference Summary

Author:: Robert Kapp
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Peter Bottelier, the principal presenter of this topic, opened by noting that much discussion now surrounds the evolving “new line” embodied in China's economic plans for the next five years. The three agricultural questions, self-innovation, regional adjustment, opening up of a win-win “harmonious society,” and economizing on energy use: what do these and other much-discussed new terms really mean?
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

58195. China as Producer: Chinese Industry After 25 Years of Reform

Author:: Thomas Rawski
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Beginning with the start of reform in the late 1970s, China's industry has recorded impressive growth of output, labor productivity, and exports as well as dramatic upgrading of the quality and variety of output. These gains have occurred in spite of difficulties arising from lethargic state enterprises, inadequate corporate governance, excessive official intervention, corruption, and weak financial institutions.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

58196. China as Consumer

Author:: Kenneth Lieberthal
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: This article seeks to examine two key issues that will be major drivers of consumption in China over the coming five years: urbanization and environmental amelioration. Whether the issues identified will be the largest factors over this time frame remains unclear, but each of these two areas warrants considerable attention as a very significant contributor to the future of consumer demand in China.
Topic:: Economics, Environment, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

58197. China as Employer and Consumer: Economic Outlook for the 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010)

Author:: Arthur R. Kroeber
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: China's impressive economic growth of the past quarter century (9.4 percent average annual real GDP growth between 1980 and 2004, by official figures) is not miraculous; on the contrary, it can largely be explained by conventional models of economic development.
Topic:: Economics, Human Welfare, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

58198. Hu Jintao's Outbox

Author:: Joseph Fewsmith
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: China has now sustained two and a half decades of high-speed growth. This growth has been even faster with regard to exports and China's role in international trade. Domestically, a capitalist tendency seems to be everywhere, while internationally the rise of China, whether peaceful or not, seems – at least to some – to threaten Western jobs, prosperity, and the international order. The focus of this paper, however, is not this question of whether or how China poses a threat to the West but rather an old (but new) question of how this “capitalist” conversion is compatible with the continued rule of a communist party. This is a question of considerable practical import, as people contemplate what the continued growth of the Chinese economy might mean for the political stability of that country, but it is also a question of considerable theoretical import: Leninist parties that sought to “include” external interests, it was argued, are on the way to collapse. It is only a matter of time. The time frame for China has lasted longer than theoreticians had supposed, though they might yet prove to be right – perhaps the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has lasted longer than people imagined but it might still be on the road to collapse. This point of view would find supporters, both in the West and in China, but even if they prove right, it is important to inquire more deeply about what is going on in China, whether institutions are being created, and if so whether they might provide a foundation for a post-communist China or whether they suggest a more chaotic future.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: China and Asia

58199. The Future of NATO-Russia Relations: Or, How to Dance With a Bear and Not Get Mauled

Author:: Lt. Colonel Gordon B. Hendrickson
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union and the Warsaw Pact, NATO has enlarged its membership twice with countries formerly under Soviet influence and control, and the Alliance is now preparing to begin the process for a third expansion effort. During this time, Russia has watched the borders of NATO creep ever closer to its own, but has generally been powerless to prevent it. Although NATO has taken pains to include and consult with Russia regarding its actions and future plans, the Kremlin cannot reasonably be expected to continue to watch NATO's expansion eastward without eventually pushing back hard. Without question, many significant issues and challenges must still be solved before enlarging the Alliance once again. In light of this, NATO must work rigorously to continue to keep Russia engaged in a productive and mutually beneficial relationship as both sides work through the future obstacles that inevitably will arise in the NATO -Russia relationship.
Topic:: International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Asia, and Soviet Union

58200. The Inevitable Peaking of World Oil Production

Author:: Robert L. Hirsch
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The era of plentiful, low-cost petroleum is approaching an end. The good news is that commercially viable mitigation options are ready for implementation. The bad news is that unless mitigation is orchestrated on a timely basis, the economic damage to the world economy will be dire and long-lasting.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, and Government

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS