Author: - CIAO Search Results

57501. Fuelling Mistrust Between Iran and the United States

Author:: Roger Howard
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: Imagine your reaction if, during last November's presidential contest, the mullahs of Iran had suddenly launched a tirade of criticism against the American system of democracy and beamed their message onto our television sets and radios for all of us to hear: democracy in the United States, the mullahs might perhaps have claimed, is a corrupt process that is determined largely by the influence of the wealthiest donors, and a process that wholly fails to address the religious needs of a secular, materialist culture.
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: United States, America, Iran, and Middle East

57502. Undermining the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—It Didn't Start With the Bush Administration

Author:: Stephen Zunes
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: Most of the international community and arms control advocates here in the United States have correctly blamed the Bush administration for the failure of the recently-completed review conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. In the course of the four-week meeting of representatives of the 188 countries which have signed and ratified the treaty, the United States refused to uphold its previous arms control pledges, blocked consideration of the establishment of a nuclear-free zone in the Middle East, refused to rule out U.S. nuclear attacks against non-nuclear states, and demanded that Iran and North Korea—but not U.S. allies like Israel, Pakistan, and India—be singled out for UN sanctions for their nuclear programs. Thomas Graham, who served as a U.S. envoy to disarmament talks in the Clinton administration noted that the Bush administration's demands resulted in what appears to be "the most acute failure in the treaty's history."
Topic:: International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Pakistan, United States, India, Israel, and Korea

57503. Lingering Shadows of World War II

Author:: Zia Mian
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: Many events commemorating the 60th anniversary of the defeat of Nazi Germany in the Second World War were held this past May. Yet there has been little or no discussion of some of the most important and enduring legacies of that war, legacies that have cast long shadows ever since. Nationalism, industrial production, the bureaucratic state, and science and technology were harnessed to the cause of war in terrible new ways. It brought us the gas chambers, the systematic bombing of cities, and nuclear weapons. These three forms of modern violence are different in some significant ways, but they shared important features. Among these were centralized authority, extensive compartmentalization of responsibilities, tasks, and knowledge accompanied by strong organizational loyalty, along with scientific rationalization for the policy and technical ways of distancing perpetrators from victims.
Topic:: Security, Development, Science and Technology, and War
Political Geography:: Germany

57504. The Me Too Club

Author:: Tad Daley
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: The "nuclear option" may have receded in the U.S. Senate for the time being. Unfortunately, it's still very much on the table for the two newest aspirants to the nuclear club. Not to mention those who already have their membership cards.
Topic:: International Relations and Nuclear Weapons
Political Geography:: United States and Middle East

57505. Reflections on Vietnam and the Iraq War

Author:: Daniel Ellsberg
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: I'm often asked whether there aren't big differences between the Iraq War and Vietnam. And I'm always quick to say, of course, there are differences. In Iraq, it's a dry heat. And the language that none of our troops or diplomats speak is Arabic rather than Vietnamese.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, Human Rights, and War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Vietnam, and Arabia

57506. The Iglesias Legacy and the IDB's Future

Author:: Nadia Martinez
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: After 17 years at the helm of Latin America's largest source of development financing, the President of the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) is stepping down. Enrique Iglesias is slated to pass the reins to his successor in September. Like the recent fight over the leadership position at the Organization of American States, this contest promises to be a long and arduous process of political negotiation. As the United States attempts to maintain its traditionally hegemonic role in Latin America, Brazil is more boldly gaining some of that ground. And with annual lending to Latin American countries surpassing $8 billion annually, the IDB has significant influence over the region's economies.
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: United States, America, Brazil, South America, and Latin America

57507. The Network Paradigm of Strategic Public Diplomacy

Author:: R. S. Zaharna
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: With the nomination of Karen Hughes as the new undersecretary of state for public diplomacy, the United States has the potential to embark on a new and more effective phase in its communication with the international community, particularly with the Arab and Islamic world. Hughes' close working relationship with President Bush, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, and other advisers in the administration's inner circle qualifies her as a communication heavyweight. If she uses this asset, she can transform the old model of public diplomacy used during the Cold War into a more strategic approach.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: United States

57508. A Unified Security Budget for the United States, 2006

Author:: Miriam Pemberton and Marcus Corbin
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: During the last year, the ground under the security debate has begun to shift. A diverse and growing universe of voices, including former national security advisors, representatives of the business community, and the Bush administration itself, now recognizes that expanding the role of nonmilitary tools in our portfolio of security spending is necessary to keep Americans and the rest of the world safe. In the federal budget, though, where the debate takes concrete form, this shift barely registers. Small increases planned by the administration for some nonmilitary security programs would still leave the overall proportion of resources severely unbalanced.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: United States

57509. Washington Doesn't Get Its Way in the OAS: Latin America's Coming of Age

Author:: Laura Carlsen
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: The May 2 victory of Chilean Interior Minister José Miguel Insulza as secretary general of the Organization of American States ends one phase of a drama that is only beginning. The showdown over the leadership of the OAS began when Costa Rica's former president Miguel Angel Rodríguez resigned in October 2004 due to corruption charges in his home country. Rodríguez was elected by consensus and had served only three weeks of his five–year term when forced to leave.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Government
Political Geography:: America, Washington, South America, Latin America, and North America

57510. The Dragon the Chrysanthemum

Author:: Conn Hallinan
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: At first glance, the growing tension between China and Japan seems almost inexplicable. Massive anti-Japanese demonstrations in China over events that took place more than half a century ago? A heated exchange filled with mutual threats over an offshore petroleum field that western oil companies think is not worth exploiting? Has a Shinto shrine and slanted textbooks really driven the two great Asian powers to the edge of a Cold War or worse?
Topic:: International Relations and War
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Israel, and Asia

57511. A New American Century

Author:: Zia Mian
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: PNAC is focused on the concern that "American foreign and defense policy is adrift." The group worries that the U.S. may not have what it describes as the "resolve to shape a new century favorable to American principles and interests." Its members seem disappointed in the willingness of Americans to take up the burden of America's role in the world. PNAC's goal, the group says, is to "make the case and rally support for American global leadership.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Politics
Political Geography:: United States and America

57512. How to End the Occupation of Iraq: Outmaneuver the War Proponents

Author:: Gareth Porter
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Foreign Policy In Focus
Abstract:: For an anti-war activist of the Vietnam era, the current search for a political strategy for ending the U.S. occupation of Iraq brings to mind the very similar problems facing the movement to end the Vietnam War in 1968-69. In fact, a review of the strategy that the anti-war movement pursued at that juncture of the Vietnam War helps clarify the choices before the present movement and their likely consequences. It should serve as a warning against ignoring the possibility of embracing the negotiation of a compromise peace agreement with those resisting the U.S. occupation as an anti-war strategy.
Topic:: International Relations and War
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Vietnam

57513. GCSP UN Dialogue Series

Author:: Derek Lutterbeck (ed.)
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: During the summer of 2005, the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP), with the generous financial support of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs of Switzerland, Political Division III, organised a series of public presentations by distinguished personalities, focusing on the changing role of the UN system in the rapidly evolving international security landscape. The objective of these events was to provide a forum to discuss the most-pressing current challenges facing the UN, as well as other key players in the international system, and to chart possible ways forward in adapting the UN system to the demands of the contemporary security environment.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Development, and United Nations

57514. Three Years of the Global Partnership. A View by Russia

Author:: V. Semin
Publication Date:: 07-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Three years have passed since June 2002, when G8 Leaders, in the Canadian town of Kananaskis, launched the Global Partnership against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction (GP), and committed to support projects initially in Russia.After the end of the Cold War and demise of the Soviet Union, Russia inherited a large number of strategic nuclear missiles, means of their delivery (including strategic and generalpurpose submarines) and huge arsenals of chemical weapons. In 1991-1992 we had to consolidate urgently and put into secure storage all nuclear weapons from the Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Byelorussia, which became non-nuclear states under the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty.
Topic:: International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and Soviet Union

57515. The G8 Global Partnership on Weapons of Mass Destruction: What Next?

Author:: Daniil Kobyakov and Vladimir Orlov
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: Since the inception of the G8 Global Partnership (GP) program in Kananaskis on June 27 2002, the program has passed through different stages. Initially, it was just a loud political declaration, adopted by the leaders of the G8 following the attacks of 9/11. A Russian participant of the Kananaskis Summit later recalled with some surprise how smoothly and, to some extent, unexpectedly for the Russians involved the "$20 billion" pledge was shaped in that Canadian village. Interviewed on a major European GP-related conference a year after the Kananaskis summit, he was frank to exclaim: "Arriving in Kananaskis, we [Russians] could hardly even expect that this whole giant wave now called Global Partnership would be born from our discussions of non-proliferation and counter-terrorism".
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Russia

57516. Preventing the Brain Drain: Russia and Beyond

Author:: Vitaly Fedchenko
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: As Lao-Tzu once said, 'Give a man a fish and you feed him for a day. Teach him how to fish and you feed him for a lifetime'. This sentence expresses the essence of effective assistance. If you want to provide somebody with food, there are two options: either to supply him during all his lifetime or to teach him how to earn a living. Similarly, if you want a state to get rid of WMD capabilities, there is always an option to blow up some facilities, but the next day it would be necessary to check whether no new WMD capabilities have developed. Another option is to make the process self-sustaining on the ground, ensuring that the state itself is looking after it.
Topic:: International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Russia

57517. The G8 Global Partnership: Background and Current Status

Author:: Cristina Chuen
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:: The Global Partnership Against the Spread of Weapons and Materials of Mass Destruction is nearly three years old. While the initiative—launched on June 27, 2002, at the G8 annual summit in Kananaskis, Canadai—brought new donors to the table and added a new sense of urgency to nonproliferation projects in Russia, to date the programs have yielded mixed results. There is much that remains to be done if the next seven years are going to fulfill the promise of Kananaskis.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Russia

57518. Policy Space for Development in the WTO and Beyond: The Case of Intellectual Property Rights

Author:: Ken Shadlen
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:: Global governance in intellectual property (IP) has changed dramatically in the last two decades, and these changes have profound - and worrying - implications for late development. What was once principally an instrument of national policy is now increasingly subject to international disciplines, as the world moves ever-closer to harmonization in the area of IP management. But moving toward harmonization and achieving harmonization are different matters, and it is essential to keep in mind that the former and not the latter describes contemporary arrangements: the trend is toward a reduction in policy space, a feature that many scholars and activists point to with great concern (Gallagher, 2005), but the outcome remains one where countries retain space for autonomous IP management.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements

57519. The Shrinking Gains from Trade: A Critical Assessment of Doha Round Projections

Author:: Ken Shadlen
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
Abstract:: Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of world trade, often presented as demonstrating the benefits of trade liberalization, now make much more modest forecasts than they did just a few years ago. The estimated benefits are not only small in the aggregate, but also skewed toward developed countries; the expected contribution of trade liberalization to economic development and poverty alleviation is extremely limited. Related calculations, for the expected benefits of services liberalization, trade facilitation measures, and long-term productivity gains from trade liberalization, remain problematical and/or speculative. The empirical limitations of CGE forecasts rest on broader theoretical weaknesses: the models are largely locked within a static framework, and remarkably assume that trade policy causes no changes in total employment, up or down. Models built on more adequate theories, which have only begun to appear, would paint a very different picture of the effects of trade liberalization.
Topic:: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Treaties and Agreements

57520. Party System Institutionalization and Party System Theory After the Third Wave of Democratization

Author:: Scott Mainwaring and Mariano Torcal
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: The overarching argument of this paper is that the party systems of less developed countries are less institutionalized than those of the advanced industrial democracies. The paper examines three differences between the party systems of the advanced industrial democracies and party systems of less developed countries. First, we show that most democracies and semi-democracies in less developed countries have much higher electoral volatility than the advanced industrial democracies. Second, much of the literature on parties and party systems assumes the context of institutionalized party systems with strong party roots in society and further presupposes that programmatic or ideological linkages are at the root of the stable linkages between voters and parties. In the party systems of most democracies and semi-democracies in less developed countries, programmatic or ideological linkages between voters and parties are weaker. Third, linkages between voters and candidates are more personalistic in less developed countries than in the advanced industrial democracies.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, Government, and Third World
Political Geography:: Europe

57521. Class Formation or Fragmentation? Allegiances and Divisions Among Managers and Workers in State-Owned Enterprises

Author:: Kun-Chin Lin
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This essay argues that crosscutting allegiances between managers and workers, and between existing workers and ex-workers, have formed strong social and psychological bases for sustained collective action and inaction during a period of organizational transformation in contemporary China. This thesis challenges the conventional wisdom that implies either class formation during marketization or the failure of such as an explanation for the alleged limits of the working class in mobilizing to defend its social contract against the central state. Through in-depth case studies of Chinese oilfields and refineries, I identify patterns of fragmentation deriving from intergenerational differences among the workers, managerial incentive structures, and the continuing reworking of patron-client relations between subgroups of workers and managers. I conclude that managers' and workers' passive and active responses to the state's rapid dismantling of the socialist notion of “class” in a self-sufficient work unit have placed a tangible social limit on authoritarian institutional innovation.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and Government
Political Geography:: China

57522. On the Continuing Relevance of the Weberian Methodological Perspective (with Applications to the Spanish Case of Elections in the Aftermath of Terrorism)

Author:: Robert M. Fishman
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: This paper argues for the continuing relevance of Max Weber's distinctive methodological perspective by first elaborating its constitutive elements and then applying it to the analysis of an important recent political episode: the Spanish case of elections in the aftermath of terrorism in March 2004. The paper takes as the central feature of Weberian methodology the embrace of both poles in a series of intellectual tensions such as the seeming opposition between pursuing generalizing theorization and case-specific nuance and specificity. The paper examines the basis for this approach in Weber's classic Objectivity Essay and then builds a case for its continuing relevance by arguing that the impact of the March 11, 2004 terrorist attack in Madrid on Spain's March 14 elections cannot be understood without a thorough analysis of much that is specific to the case's political history, its pattern of conflict over regional and national identities, and its distinctive nexus between institutional and social movement forms of political engagement. Emphasis is placed on the large shift of votes in the country's plurinational periphery and the electoral impact of micro-demonstrations. The paper argues that this case shows the importance of using generalizing concepts and theories without losing sight of case-specific dynamics that fail to fit within the a priori assumptions of such generalizing approaches.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Europe and Spain

57523. Rational Learning and Bounded Learning in the Diffusion of Policy Innovations

Author:: Covadonga Meseguer
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
Abstract:: In political science, rational learning and bounded learning are commonly studied as two opposing theories of policy choice. In this paper, I use a rational-learning approach to reach conclusions about bounded learning, showing that the two theories are not necessarily incompatible. By examining a rational-learning model and the decisions of a set of developing countries to open up their trade regimes, I show that countries are particularly influenced by the choices of neighbouring countries and by particularly successful policy experiences. These are two typical contentions of the bounded-learning literature. I argue that bounded learning and rational learning yield the same results as soon as one drops the rational-learning assumption that there are zero costs to gathering new information. I use the discussion on rational learning versus bounded learning as a basis for exploring more general issues concerning the diffusion of policy innovations.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Development, and Politics
Political Geography:: Europe

57524. Development Aid and Economic Freedom: Are They Related?

Author:: Benjamin Powell and Matt Ryan
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Independent Institute
Abstract:: For more than 50 years individual countries and international agencies have given aid to third world countries to promote economic development, yet poverty still persists in many recipient nations. In recent years development economists and agencies have increasingly recognized the importance of institutions that support property rights and economic freedom in promoting development. Nevertheless, nations continue to provide aid to less developed countries. This raises two important questions. Does the receipt of aid lead to increases or decreases in economic freedom, and are increases in economic freedom rewarded with more aid or punished with reduced aid?
Topic:: Development, Economics, Government, and Poverty

57525. Government and the Economy: The World Wars

Author:: Robert Higgs
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Independent Institute
Abstract:: U.S participation in the world wars gave rise to massive increases in the extent of government involvement in economic life and brought about many important, enduring changes in the government\'s relations with private economic actors. In both wars, the federal government expanded enormously the amount of its expenditure, taxation, and regulation as well as its direct participation in productive activities, creating what contemporaries described during World War I as "war socialism." Each of these great experiences left a multitude of legacies—fiscal, institutional, and ideological—many of which continue to shape the country\'s political economy. As William Graham Sumner wisely observed, "it is not possible to experiment with a society and just drop the experiment whenever we choose. The experiment enters into the life of the society and never can be got out again" (Sumner 1934, II, 473). The world wars certainly are among the greatest "experiments" that American society ever endured.
Topic:: Economics, Government, and Industrial Policy
Political Geography:: United States

57526. Is Cybersecurity a Public Good? Evidence from the Financial Services Industry

Author:: Benjamin Powell
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Independent Institute
Abstract:: The September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States heightened concerns about vulnerabilities to future attacks. One new area of concern is cyberterrorism: the possibility of terrorists using computers to attack our critical infrastructure electronically. The government has made efforts to better secure its own computer networks to prevent terrorists from hacking into computer systems in the Pentagon, FBI, and other government agencies. Increasingly, however, the government has been concerned that the private sector is vulnerable to cyberterrorism. The private sector owns approximately 85 percent of the critical infrastructure in the U.S. (Deloitte 2004 p. 15). There are concerns that a cyber attack on dams, trains, electrical grids, pipeline pumps, communications networks, or the financial services industry could cause significant physical or economic damage to the U.S. The policy question being asked is whether private businesses, when left to their own devices, provide enough cybersecurity or if some form of government involvement is justified.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Industrial Policy, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States and United Nations

57527. "Not Merely Perfidious but Ungrateful";: The U.S. Takeover of West Florida

Author:: Robert Higgs
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Independent Institute
Abstract:: Probably not one American in a hundred knows anything about the short-lived Republic of West Florida (1810). At first glance it might seem to have sprung from a worthy fight for self-government and independence from Spain. West Floriday, that lovely nation, Free from king and tyranny, Thru' the world shall be respected, For her true love of Liberty. On closer inspection, however, this venture, born of low-level filibuster and high-level intrigue, illustrates the same ingrained American propensity for land-grabbing so evident in other U.S. acquisitions of territory.
Topic:: Development and Politics
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Spain

57528. Mind the Gap: Policy Development and Research on Conflict Issue

Author:: Cheyanne Church
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Initiative on Conflict Resolution and Ethnicity
Abstract:: Since the 1950's, a steadily increasing amount of research and scholarly attention has been paid to the resolution of violent conflict. Today this has become the foundation of a robust body of knowledge focusing on non-military approaches to preventing, managing and ending conflicts. Despite this, the public and political perception of force as the primary response to conflict remains.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Ethnic Conflict, and Politics

57529. Whither Ripeness Theory?

Author:: Dean G. Pruitt
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Conflict Analysis and Resolution at George Mason University
Abstract:: Ripeness theory, in its most common version, concerns the psychological states that encourage parties who are involved in severe conflict to move into negotiation—either bilateral or mediated. This monograph first summarizes ripeness theory as it stands today, while drawing on the writings of I. William Zartman, the founder of this field, and several other international relations scholars. Then it presents a critique, which recasts this important theory in conventional psychological terms; uses the language of variables rather than necessary states; and focuses on the psychological states of individual actors rather than on joint psychological states.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Education, and Peace Studies

57530. The European Constitution: How to Proceed if France or the Netherlands Votes "No"

Author:: E. Greco and G.L. Tosato
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Istituto Affari Internazionali
Abstract:: What would happen if France and the Netherlands voted "no" in the coming referendums on the Constitutional Treaty of the European Union? What would be the most effective strategy for finding a solution to the crisis that this would inevitably precipitate? Would it be best to suspend or continue the ratification process? What kind of initiatives should the member states and the European institutions undertake? This paper ponders what road should be taken to deal with a crisis that would be serious and complex. In particular, it discusses the question that is bound to come up first, and that is whether - in the event hypothesised - the ratification process in the other countries should be continued or stopped.
Topic:: International Relations and Security
Political Geography:: Europe and Netherlands

57531. Engaging Putin's Russia: Challenges and Opportunities for the West

Author:: Jason R. Wisniewski
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:: The small and medium-sized states in Southeast Asia have undergone significant geostrategic changes with the end of the Cold War and the rise of China. There has been a lively debate over the last decade about whether these countries would balance against or bandwagon with China, and how their relations with the other major powers in the region would change. Recent works that argue against the simple dichotomy of balancing versus bandwangoning are correct in asserting that Southeast Asian countries do not want to choose between the two major powers, the U.S. and China. But this paper goes further to present the results of an empirical study that fleshes out the conceptual thinking that underlies this avoidance strategy. It finds that instead of merely adopting tactical or time-buying policies, key Southeast Asian states have actively tried to influence the shaping of the new regional order. It argues that key Southeast Asian states in fact have (a) distinct coneptualisations of two main pathways to order in the region omni-enmeshment of major powers and complex balance of influence; and (b) a concrete vision of the preferred power distribution outcome, which is a hierarchical regional order.
Topic:: International Relations and Government
Political Geography:: Russia, United States, China, and Southeast Asia

57532. America's Interests in the United Nations: A U.S. Response to the Report of the UN Secretary-General's High Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change

Author:: Donald F. McHenry, Thomas R. Pickering, Peter Burleigh, James Cunningham, Jeanne J. Kirkpatrick, and Edward Perkins
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for the Study of Diplomacy, Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, Georgetown University
Abstract:: During the UN General Assembly meeting in September 2003, Secretary-General Kofi Annan created a High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges and Change to provide him and the member states of the United Nations with ideas about the policies and institutions required for the United Nations to be effective in the twenty-first century. The panel submitted to him in December 2004 a report entitled "A More Secure World: Our Shared Responsibilities," an analysis of how to improve the collective institutionalized response to the most pressing threats and challenges to global peace and security. The report also presented more than one hundred specific recommendations to the secretary-general and the member states.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and United Nations
Political Geography:: United States

57533. The Development and the Prospects of the Czech Left – the Role of the Communist Party

Author:: Vladimír Handl
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of International Relations Prague
Abstract:: The parties of the Czech left have enjoyed a nominal majority in the House of Representatives of the Czech Parliament: the Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD) gained 70 seats and the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM) 41 seats during the elections in June 2002. Both parties have so far used this political potential with caution.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Europe and Eastern Europe

57534. Unequal Prospects: Disparities in the Quantity and Quality of Labour Supply in Sub-Saharan Africa

Author:: Christopher Cramer and John Sender
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: School of Oriental and African Studies - University of London
Abstract:: The issue of labour supply in Sub-Sahara n Africa, like so many other economic and social issues in the region, is often discussed as if the whole sub-continent faced essentially similar, overwhelming and intractable problem s. This pessimistic and over-generalised literature has been criticized elsewhere (Sender, 1999). By contrast, this paper stresses the importance of differences between and within Sub-Saharan African economies in the quantity and quality of labour supplies, and highlights the scope for policies to overcome constraints on employment prospects. The paper also points to the dangers of one-size-fits-all policy recommendations for the labour market, while at the same time identifying certain similarities in the characteristics of the most disadvantaged labour market entrants in many Sub-Saharan African economies. The aim is to begin to isolate the sub-set of policies that might be most relevant for these entrants, if donors and governments wish to re-allocate resources to improve prospects for the poorest Africans.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Political Economy

57535. The Role of the Wider Black Sea Area in a Future European Security Space, Volume 1

Author:: Jean Dufourcq(ed.) and Lionel Ponsard(ed.)
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: The Black Sea is at the forefront of the strategic agenda for 2 005, though its ordinary geographical name tends to conceal the dynamic geopolitical realities of an area where a transformation is in full swing.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Development
Political Geography:: Europe

57536. The Role of the Wider Black Sea Area in a Future European Security Space, Volume 2

Author:: Jean Dufourcq(ed.) and Lionel Ponsard(ed.)
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: This second booklet of reflections on Black Sea security issues is the companion volume to the one published during the continuation of the seminar sponsored by the NSC at Constanta (Romana) on 6 and 7 June 2005 on the subject of “The Role of the Wider Black Sea Area in a Future European Security Space”.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Development
Political Geography:: Europe

57537. Security Strategies and their Implications for NATO's Strategic Concept

Author:: Jean Dufourcq(ed.) and Carlo Masala(ed.)
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: This volume contains the three presentations delivered on the occasion of the 52nd Anciens' Annual Conference and Seminar held on 23 September 2005 at the NATO Defense College in Rome. The seminar was dedicated to the subject of “Security Strategies”–especially those of the United States, the European Union, and of course the 1999 NATO Strategic Concept. One major issue examined at the seminar was the impact that the evolution of the first two strategies may have on the Alliance's current strategic concept.
Topic:: Security, NATO, and Development
Political Geography:: United States, Europe, and Rome

57538. When Suicide Bombing Reaches the Tipping Point

Author:: Sam Grier
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: NATO Defense College
Abstract:: While at the macroscopic level numerous analyses have been devoted to finding the root causes of terrorism in the interest of preventing and countering terrorism as comprehensively as possible, a whole range of complementary preventive measures could be taken at a more microscopic level. It is therefore important to identify the catalysts of the forces fuelling terrorism, so as to compose a holistic menu of small and coordinated preventive actions as part of a first line of defence.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Peace Studies, and Terrorism

57539. A Regional Strategy for Promoting a Free Media and Freedom of Expression in the Middle East and North Africa

Author:: Keith Henderson
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: The main objective of this paper is to encourage open debate and reform action in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region on the need to create the legal and political enabling environment necessary to promote good governance, the Rule of Law and citizen participation. The paper notes that many of the defamation laws in the region still contain criminal penalties, including high fines and imprisonment, and that the threat and enforcement of these laws and policies leads to government censorship, self-censorship and sometimes imprisonment. These practices are now well understood as counter to international obligations and best practices as well as to the guarantees of a free media and free speech enshrined in most MENA Constitutions. The net result of these practices is a culture of secrecy that presents high barriers to sustainable economic and political reform. Collectively, this secrecy effectively muzzles open discussion and critical reform debate and makes the promotion of basic human rights and a good governance reform agenda virtually impossible.
Topic:: International Relations and Democratization
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

57540. Ethiopia: Implications of the May 2005 Elections for Future Democratization Programs

Author:: Terrence Lyons
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Academy of Political Science
Abstract:: May 15, 2005 elections presented the Ethiopian people a remarkable opportunity to express their political views by participating in a poll that offered them a meaningful choice. In contrast to earlier elections in 1995 and 2000, opposition parties did not boycott but rather competed vigorously across the country. Opposition party mistrust of the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE), reports of intimidation and violence, and highly polarizing rhetoric raised concerns during the pre-election period but did not deter opposition parties from campaigning in nearly every constituency. Live, televised debates on matters of public policy, opposition party access to state-owned media, and huge, peaceful rallies in the final week of campaigning made it clear that these elections would represent a critical moment in Ethiopia's political development. The Ethiopian people recognized this opportunity and turned out in overwhelming numbers to vote, forcing some polling stations in Addis Ababa to stay open 24 hours to accommodate those in line.
Topic:: International Relations, Democratization, and Human Rights
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

57541. Securing the Rule of Law: Assessing International Strategies for Post-Conflict Criminal Justice

Author:: Reyko Huang
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The past dozen years have seen a proliferation of international efforts to strengthen national criminal justice systems in post-conflict countries. Part of the burgeoning of discourses, policies and programs on the primacy of the rule of law in peacebuilding, these efforts are based on the principle that the restoration of law and order in the immediate aftermath of conflict is critical for building a durable peace. The UN Secretary-General encapsulated this growing importance of the rule of law in a 2004 report, in which he also stressed the need to develop strong national criminal justice systems for the administration of justice in accordance with international standards.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and International Law

57542. Taking the International Rule of Law Seriously

Author:: Laurence Boisson de Chazournes
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The scope of the collective security system established under the United Nations (UN) Charter has expanded significantly since the end of the cold war. Aside from the increasingly broad understanding of the concept of "threat to international peace," there has also been a related widening of the range of measures that may be adopted by the Security Council under Chapter VII of the Charter.
Topic:: Security, Human Rights, International Law, and United Nations

57543. Housing, Land, Property and Conflict Management: Identifying Policy Options for Rule of Law Programming

Author:: Agnes Hurwitz, Kaysie Studdard, and Rhodri Williams
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Housing, land and property (HLP) policies should, as far as possible be addressed in conjunction to ensure that residential and land rights are dealt with more comprehensively by domestic and international actors.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Development, Economics, and Government

57544. In Good Company? The Role of Business in Security Sector Reform

Author:: Francesco Mancini
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Security sector reform (SSR) focuses on security institutions of a state, namely the military, police, intelligence and criminal justice institutions, in order to make them capable of delivering security to citizens consistent with democratic norms. Despite the promotion of comprehensive SSR frameworks and guidelines, projects overwhelmingly focus on the reform of traditional security institutions (ie military and police training). Strengthening civil oversight and governance of the overall security sector are still marginal activities.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Development, and Government

57545. Kashmir: From Persistence to Progress?

Author:: Cyrus Samii
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Jammu and Kashmir (J) has been a continual bone of contention, the object of three wars and a theater of engagement in a fourth war, between the two countries. Since 1989, insurgency has consumed Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir (IJK), claiming at least 45,000 lives. All major attempts at resolution by the international community have failed, including those through the United Nations. With overt "nuclearization" by India and Pakistan in 1998, and with "jihadist" militants playing an increasingly prominent role in the insurgency since the mid-1990s, the Kashmir conflict also bears the marks of a distinctly twenty-first century security predicament.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Human Welfare, and War
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Middle East, India, and Jammu and Kashmir

57546. Rule of Law Programs in Peace Operations

Author:: Agnes Hurwitz and Kaysie Studdard
Publication Date:: 08-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Over the last fifteen years, the international community has supported the implementation of programs designed to strengthen the rule of law in countries susceptible to or recovering from violent conflict. Yet the question of how best to restore and/or implement rule of law programs in fundamentally insecure environments and to what degree the rule of law can prevent or mitigate conflict is not yet fully known.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Peace Studies, and United Nations

57547. Police Reform in Post Conflict Societies: What We Know and What We Still Need to Know

Author:: William G. O'Neill
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: Police reform is one of the most important and complex challenges in any environment. It is particularly challenging, however, in post-conflict situations where the police have often perpetrated serious human rights violations. Often cut off from the populations they are meant to serve and protect, many operate more like military contingents than public security officers. Transforming such police forces into rights-respecting police services that simultaneously provide protection and fight crime has challenged local and international reformers.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, and United Nations

57548. An Action Plan for European Defence. Implementing the Security Strategy

Author:: Tomas Valasek, Giovanni Gasparini, Annalisa Monaco, Roberto Menotti, Gerard Quille, and Alyson J. K. Bailes
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Security Information Service
Abstract:: Alyson Bailes captures the essence of the present context and challenge facing Europe in the early decades of the 21st Century with her opening observation that: “Europe has arrived at a point in history when its conception of security, and security ambitions, are possibly running ahead of the contemporary realities: while its military concepts and assets are lagging behind.”
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:: Europe

57549. Uncovered: Arab Journalists Scrutinize Their Profession

Author:: Hafez al-Mirazi, Thomas Gorguissian, Rami Khouri, and Salameh Nematt
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: This conference is entitled “Uncovered: Arab Journalists Scrutinize Their Profession” because we want to dissect, uncover, and analyze the state of the Arab media. Four distinguished Arab journalists will lead us in that quest. They are insiders, people who really know the business, and I anticipate hearing some very insightful comments and views.
Topic:: Islam
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, and Arabia

57550. The US And Yemen: A Half-Century of Engagement

Author:: Edward Prados
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Contemporary Arab Studies (CCAS)
Abstract:: Yemen has rarely played a prominent role in America's foreign policy or in its national discourse. In fact, until the October 2000 attack on the USS Cole in the Yemeni port city of Aden, statements on Yemen often elicited the question: “Where is that?” Yemen is a conservative, Islamic, tribal, Arab nation located in the southwest corner of the Arabian Peninsula. Although Yemen currently produces 438,500 barrels of oil per day, it is considered one of the world's twenty-five least developed countries, with an estimated per-capita GDP of $508 in 2003 and a literacy rate of only 50 percent.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Yemen, and Arabia

57551. For All Peoples and All Nations: The Ecumenical Church and Human Rights

Author:: John S. Nurser
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Book
Abstract:: In this new century, born in hope but soon thereafter cloaked in terror, many see religion and politics as a volatile, if not deadly, mixture. For All Peoples and All Nations uncovers a remarkable time when that was not so; when together, those two entities gave rise to a new ideal: universal human rights. John Nurser has given life to a history almost sadly forgotten, and introduces the reader to the brilliant and heroic people of many faiths who, out of the aftermath of World War II and in the face of cynicism, dismissive animosity, and even ridicule, forged one of the world's most important secular documents, the United Nations's Universal Declaration of Human Rights. These courageous, persistent, visionary individuals—notable among them an American Lutheran Seminary professor from Philadelphia, O. Frederick Nolde—created the Commission on Human Rights. Eventually headed by one of the world's greatest humanitarians, Eleanor Roosevelt, the Universal Declaration has become the touchstone for political legitimacy. As David Little says in the foreword to this remarkable chronicle, "Both because of the large gap it fills in the story of the founding of the United Nations and the events surrounding the adoption of human rights, and because of the wider message it conveys about religion and peacebuilding, For All Peoples and All Nations is an immensely important contribution. We are all mightily in John Nurser's debt." If religion and politics could once find common ground in the interest of our shared humanity, there is hope that it may yet be found again. - See more at: http://press.georgetown.edu/book/georgetown/all-peoples-and-all-nations#sthash.GJp0Kv8T.dpuf
Topic:: Human Rights and Religion

57552. Freedom from Want: The Human Right to Adequate Food

Author:: George Kent
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Book
Abstract:: Each year, more than 10 million children die before their fifth birthdays, about half of them from causes associated with malnutrition. This is a silent holocaust, repeated year after year. Malnutrition leads to death, illness, and a significantly reduced quality of life for hundreds of millions of people. This book's central concern is that very many people do not get adequate food, in terms of quantity or in terms of quality.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, and Food

57553. Protecting Human Rights: A Comparative Study :- (Appendix B IGOs and INGOs)

Author:: Todd Landman
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Book
Abstract:: The data analysis employed two measures of “organizational” inter- dependence. The first is the number of international governmental organizations (IGOs) of which each country is a member. The second is the number of international nongovernmental organizations (INGOs) with a registered office in each country. Both sets of numbers come from the Union of International Associations (UIA), which publishes statistical yearbooks with membership figures. In both cases, the analysis uses the total number of organizations across the different categories. Although the IGO data come from the UIA, Bruce Russet at Yale University kindly provided the tabulated figures by country. The INGO numbers were obtained from the UIA year- books and input into the data set by Gemma Mackman, a researcher at the University of Essex who worked on this study in 2003.
Topic:: Human Rights, International Law, Non-Governmental Organization, and United Nations

57554. The Carter Center 2004 Indonesia Elections Report

Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: In the summer of 2004, Indonesia held the country's first direct presidential elections since the fall of long-time authoritarian President Soeharto in 1998. As such, these elections represent an important milestone in the consolidation of Indonesia's democratization process. Indonesia followed an ambitious electoral timetable in 2004, starting with the legislative elections on April 5, followed by the first round of the presidential elections on July 5, and culminating in the election of the president on Sept. 20. The legislative elections and the two rounds of the presidential elections were the largest set of single-day elections in the world, with 70 percent of 155 million eligible voters going to the polls. The management of the elections posed logistical and administrative challenges that, on the whole, were adequately tackled by the authorities. As outlined below, The Carter Center observed a number of irregularities—many typical of transitional democracies—but, overall, voters were able to exercise their democratic rights in a peaceful atmosphere and without significant hindrance. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (also known by his acronym SBY) emerged as the clear winner of both rounds of the presidential elections, obtaining 61 percent of the popular vote in the runoff election against the incumbent, Megawati Soekarnoputri.
Political Geography:: Indonesia

57555. Final Report: National Democratic Institute Final Report on the Palestinian Presidential Election, Jan. 9, 2005

Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Carter Center
Abstract:: At the invitation of the Palestinian Central Election Commission (CEC), the National Democratic Institute (NDI), in partnership with The Carter Center (TCC), organized a 76- member international delegation to monitor the January 2005 Palestinian presidential election. The delegation was led by former United States President Jimmy Carter, former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt and former New Jersey Governor and United States Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Christine Todd Whitman, and supported by a grant from the United States Agency for International Development.
Topic:: Civil Society and Democratization
Political Geography:: United States, Middle East, Palestine, and Arabia

57556. The Western Balkan Candidates for NATO Membership and Partnership

Author:: David Greenwood
Publication Date:: 12-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for European Security Studies
Abstract:: The first and second waves of post-Cold War NATO enlargement by-passed the Western Balkans. Next time, though, it will be different. Three countries of the region – Albania, Croatia and Macedonia – want to join the Organisation as soon as possible and are preparing for accession by taking part in the Membership Action Plan (MAP) process. Indeed, currently they are the only states so engaged. A fourth country, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has membership aspirations also. However this state, or quasi-state, must first meet the conditions set for its admission to NATO's non-members' club – Partnership for Peace (PfP). No less keen to earn the recognition that PfP status confers is Serbia and Montenegro (SCG) which, as one country or two, may seek membership in due course.
Topic:: NATO
Political Geography:: Europe, Balkans, and Albania

57557. Assessing the Compatibility of SALW Awareness and Mine Risk Education

Author:: Bob Keeley
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
Abstract:: The MRE message is comparatively simple when compared to the SALW message. Even in countries that have not signed the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty1 it is possible to say that all remaining minefields and all items of unexploded ordnance can be considered a hazard, and that anyone finding any mines or UXO should report them. The SALW issue is more complex, as SALW Awareness messages struggle with the problem that not all weapons are illegal and weapon ownership is – in general – not stigmatised. SALW Awareness projects must therefore struggle with the emphasis they place on either (a) attempting to stigmatise gun ownership with the long term aim of reducing the number of weapons in circulation or (b) concentrating on achieving the comparatively short term aim of preventing accidental injuries resulting from poor gun storage and handling. This problem of 'selection and maintenance of the aim' does not occur in MRE.
Topic:: International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Europe

57558. Defence Conversion - The Disposal and Demilitarization of Heavy Weapon Systems

Author:: Adrian Wilkinson
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
Abstract:: At the South Eastern Europe Cooperation Process (SEECP) Ministers of Defence meeting in Bucharest on 31 March 2005, the Ministers of Defence reaffirmed their commitment to enhance cooperation and dialogue in SEE, and also with international partners, on specific defense conversion related processes. This included an exchange of views on the conversion of redundant military facilities. A necessary precursor to the conversion of military facilities is the disposal of the equipment contained within those facilities, including heavy weapons.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Political Geography:: Europe

57559. SALW Awareness in Schools - Towards a National Curriculum

Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
Abstract:: Children are naturally curious. This leaves them vulnerable to small arms and light weapons (SALW), because while playing they may search for them, or try to handle booby-traps, abandoned weapons and explosives outdoors. While it is common knowledge that young people, especially boys, display a fascination for guns, research such as that cited in Figures 1 and 22 shows the huge gap between what parents would expect children to do when placed in a context where weapons are present, and what they really do.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Civil Society, and Education
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

57560. SASP Test in North East Serbia Evaluation Report

Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
Abstract:: The initial idea for the project was to implement a targeted SALW Awareness campaign around the town of Zrenjanin in North East Serbia. As well as aiming to have a positive effect on the attitudes of local people towards firearms possession and safety, the project was designed as a test for the principles of the SEESAC SALW Awareness Support Pack (SASP) in a project with limited resources at its disposal; (the total budget for all project activities was US$10,000). The project also offered a local NGO, European Movement Zrenjanin, the opportunity to build capacities in carrying out an awareness campaign following the principles of SASP.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Civil Society, and Crime
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Serbia

57561. Taming the Arsenal – Small Arms and Light Weapons in Bulgaria

Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
Abstract:: Taming the Arsenal – Small Arms and Light Weapons in Bulgaria, is a report on the findings of research conducted on questions relating to Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) in Bulgaria from July to November 2004 by the Sofia-based Center for the Study of Democracy, and London-based Saferworld. It sets out the findings of a comprehensive assessment of the 1) distribution of SALW in Bulgaria; 2) the impacts of SALW on individuals, communities and the state; 3) public perceptions of SALW and security; and 4) the capacity of the state to control the proliferation and misuse of SALW.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Civil Society, and Crime
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, London, and Bulgaria

57562. Living with the Legacy: SALW Survey Republic of Serbia

Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
Abstract:: This survey represents the findings of a comprehensive assessment of the Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) situation in the Republic of Serbia. It examines the distribution of SALW; the impact of SALW on individuals, communities and the state; public perceptions of SALW and security; and the capacity of the state to control proliferation and misuse.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Civil Society, and Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Serbia

57563. "Biting the Bullet" - Ammunition Stocks: Promoting Safe and Secure Storage and Disposal

Author:: Owen Greene, Sally Holt, and Adrian Wilkinson
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
Abstract:: The 2001 United Nations Programme of Action to Prevent, Combat and Eradicate the Illicit Trade in Small Arms and Light Weapons in All Its Aspects (PoA) and other associated Small Arms and Light Weapons (SALW) international commitments and measures are widely understood to encompass not only the weapons but also their ammunition. Unfortunately, progress in implementing the PoA in relation to ammunition remains particularly patchy and inadequate. This is partly because it has too often been considered as a residual category. But control and reduction of ammunition raise their own distinct and challenging issues. This relative neglect is resulting in large numbers of avoidable deaths and injuries.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, and United Nations
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

57564. Bi-Annual Report: 01 July - 31 December 2004

Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: South Eastern Europe Clearinghouse for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons
Abstract:: In November 2001 the Stability Pact for South Eastern Europe adopted a Regional Implementation Plan on Combating the Proliferation of Small Arms and Light Weapons1 in South Eastern Europe, which provides a framework of approaches and measures to tackle SALW issues that can be adopted by the countries of the region and supported by international organisations and bi-lateral donors. The Implementation Plan included provision for the establishment of a regional clearinghouse to support its implementation, and on the basis of this mandate SEESAC was officially launched in Belgrade on the 08 May 2002 as a joint UNDP and Stability Pact initiative.
Topic:: Civil Society, Development, and Government
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

57565. Economic Reforms, Democracy and Growth in Eastern Europe and Eurasia

Author:: Robyn Murphy, Ron Sprout, and Paul Pleva
Publication Date:: 11-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:: This research analyses the interaction between economic reforms, reforms, and economic growth. One of the salient characteristics of the transition region has been two very distinct patterns between economic and democratic reforms: convergence of the two reform dimensions in the CEE countries and divergence Eurasia. Nevertheless, results from econometric tests (which attempt to control for possible intervening influences) suggest that economic and democratic reforms are mutually reinforcing throughout the region, even in Eurasia. We also found evidencthat: (1) economic reforms have a stronger impact on democratic reforms than the reverse; (2) economic reforms favorably affect economic growth; (3) democratic refavorably affect economic growth indirectly (via economic reforms) if not directly; and (4) while the feedback effects from economic growth to reforms are more ambiguous, there is some evidence that economic growth may actually stifle democratic reforms, and/or economic contraction may facilitate democratization.
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Eastern Europe

57566. Education in Eastern Europe and Eurasia

Author:: Robyn Murphy, Ron Sprout, and Matt Petric
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:: Conventional wisdom has been that educational aspects of human capital in the former Communist countries were largely an asset going into the transition. However, it has also been widely perceived that the type of education in the Communist countries (with emphases on memorization at the expense of analytical and critical thinking, and perhaps premature specialization if not over-specialization) may be ill-suited for the needs of a market economy This study analyzes trends in four cross-country surveys of education performance: the Trends in International Mathematics and Sciences Study (TIMSS); the International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS); the Progress in International Reading Literacy Study (PIRLS); and the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA). Salient “quantity” of education indicators (enrollment and expenditure trends) are also assessed and compared with the “quality” of education indicators from results of the cross-national performance surveys.
Topic:: Demographics, Development, and Education
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe

57567. Demography and Health in Eastern Europe and Eurasia

Author:: Robyn Murphy, Ron Sprout, Ayo Heinegg, and James Pickett
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: United States Agency for International Development
Abstract:: Eastern Europe and Eurasia is the only region worldwide experiencing a contraction in population, which stems from both a natural decrease in the population (i.e., crude death rates exceeding crude birth rates) and emigration. The highest crude death rates in the world are found among the transition countries; so too the lowest fertility rates. This study analyzes these trends and attempts to assess some of the underlying health factors behind them. The report also examines the evidence regarding migration patterns, both political aspects (including trends in refugees and internally displaced persons) and economic aspects (including remittances, urbanization, and brain drain.
Topic:: Demographics, Health, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Eastern Europe

57568. Politics, Public Bads, and Private Information

Author:: Glenn Sheriff
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:: Preferential treatment for politically influential sectors often has undesirable consequences such as increasing pollution or ecosystem degradation. Private information on firm productivity constrains the government's ability both to redistribute income and regulate public bad production. Given political economy and information constraints, this article characterizes a social-welfare maximizing policy. The optimal policy uses a single instrument to achieve both goals, making income-support subsidies contingent upon reduction of bad outputs. Output price uncertainty works to the advantage of the government, potentially eliminating some firms' information advantage.
Topic:: Civil Society, Economics, Government, and Human Rights

57569. Do Parents Help More Their Less Well-off Children?: Evidence from a Sample of Migrants to France

Author:: Seymour Spilerman, François-Charles Wolff, and Claudine Antias-Donfut
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:: Through an investigation of parental motives, this paper examines how parents decide on the allocation of their resources within the family when there are several offspring. From a theoretical viewpoint, inter vivos transfers may be explained either by altruism or by an exchange motive. Though unequal sharing is expected under both hypotheses, under altruism parents should direct their assistance to less well off children. Analogously, under an exchange motive we expect support to be channeled to children who live nearby their parents. We assess the relevance of the two transfer motives using the PRI survey, conducted in 2003, on a sample of immigrants living in France. Unequal sharing is frequently observed, and children are more likely to receive financial transfers when they are in poor circumstance, but not necessarily when living in proximity to parents. This is the case even after controlling for unobserved heterogeneity with fixed effects models. We also emphasize the role of cultural factors, especially religion, as determinants of the parental allocation among children.
Topic:: Civil Society, Education, and Migration
Political Geography:: France

57570. Temporality and Intervention Effects: Trajectory Analysis of a Homeless Mental Health Program

Author:: Mary Clare Lennon, William McAllister, Li Kuang, and Daniel Herman
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute for Social and Economic Research and Policy at Columbia University
Abstract:: Intervention analyses which incorporate temporality over a followup period typically note differences in the patterns of "single-curves" for each the experimental and control groups or differences in temporally-based taxonomies between experimentals and controls. But the former fails to allow for the possibility of subgroups of multiple trajectories and the latter collapses time (e.g., average spell durations) and arbitrarily creates cut-points to form its taxonomies. This paper investigates the utility for intervention research of using latent class growth analysis (LCGA). This method incorporates the more complete temporal information used by single-curve approaches to statistically identify the multiple subgroups at the heart of the taxonomic approach. We do this by reanalyzing a critical time intervention study (CTI) of homeless mentally ill men that used both single-curve and taxonomic approaches. By finding, among other things, differences between experimentals and controls in the number, sizes and patterns of latent subgroups than were found in the prior analysis, we suggest the utility of LCGA for assessing service interventions.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Education, and Human Welfare

57571. Overcoming the Security Council Reform Impasse: The Implausible versus the Plausible

Author:: Thomas G. Weiss
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies, City University of New York
Abstract:: Anniversaries are a typical time to take stock and think about change. The United Nations (UN) roller coaster ride has been severe in the post-Cold War era – from the euphoria surrounding Security Council decision-making to use military force against Iraq in 1990-1991 when "renaissance" was the common multilateral refrain, to the current morass after severe divisions over the decision by the United States (U.S.) and United Kingdom (UK) to go to war in Iraq in 2003 with a return to the "dark ages" of unilateralism.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, Development, and International Organization
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and United Kingdom

57572. Natural Resources and Contemporary Conflicts

Author:: Jean-François Gagné
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Raoul Dandurand Chair of Strategic and Diplomatic Studies, Université du Québec à Montréal
Abstract:: Natural resources are frequently associated with violence or at least with tensions: 85% of countries where wars (in most cases, civil wars) were under way in 2003 possessed abundant natural resources. While there are no precise figures on low-intensity conflicts, we do know that many ad hoc armed interventions, popular uprisings and other destabilizing events that have the potential to lead to larger flare-ups are also concentrated in resource-rich countries.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Economics, and War

57573. Leaders and Laggards: When and Why do Countries Sign the NPT?

Author:: Christopher Way and Karthika Sasikumar
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
Abstract:: The Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) was concluded at the end of the 1960s, a decade which saw the drama of the Cuban Missile Crisis, the height of the nuclear arms race between the superpowers, and the entry of France and China into the club of countries that had tested nuclear weapons. The basic bargain underlying the NPT allows countries to surrender their right to develop nuclear weapons in return for access to international assistance in civilian nuclear technology. Five countries (the United States, the Soviet Union, the United Kingdom, France, and China) that had tested nuclear devices before 1 January 1967, were conferred the status of Nuclear Weapon State (NWS) by Article IX. All other signatories (Non Nuclear Weapon States or NNWSs) pledged to abjure the development and diffusion of nuclear weapons technology.
Topic:: International Relations, Globalization, Nuclear Weapons, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: United States, China, United Kingdom, France, Soviet Union, and Cuba

57574. Quantity Discounts from Risk Averse Sellers

Author:: Patrick J. DeGraba
Publication Date:: 05-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: It is widely believed that larger customers in a market can secure lower prices than smaller customers. This paper presents conditions under which risk averse sellers, who can distinguish larger customers from smaller customers, but who cannot observe customers' valuations, have an incentive to offer lower prices to larger customers. The intuition is that a single customer that demands a specific quantity represents a riskier profit source than multiple customers with independent valuations whose demands sum to that same quantity. Sellers respond to the riskier profit source by offering a lower price to reduce some of the risk.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance

57575. Order Flow and Exchange Rate Dynamics in Electronic Brokerage System Data

Author:: Jonathan H. Wright, David W. Berger, Alain P. Chaboud, Sergey V. Chernenko, Edward Howorka, Raj S. Iyer, and David Liu
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: We study the association between order flow and exchange rate returns in five years of high-frequency intraday data from the leading interdealer electronic broking system, EBS. While the association between order flow and exchange rate returns has been studied in several previous papers, these have mostly used relatively short spans of daily data from older bilateral dealing systems and, usually, transaction counts instead of actual trading volume. Using a substantially longer span of recent high-frequency data and measuring order flow as actual signed trading volume, we find a strong positive association between order flow and exchange rate returns at frequencies ranging from one minute to one day, and a more modest but still sizeable association at the monthly frequency. We find, however, no evidence that order flow has predictive power for future exchange rate movements beyond, possibly, the next minute. Focusing on the behavior of order flow and exchange rates at the time of scheduled U.S. economic data releases, we find that the surprise components of these announcements are associated with order flow at high frequency immediately after the data releases. This finding seems inconsistent with a simple efficient markets view of how a public news announcement is incorporated into prices.
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

57576. Adjusting Chinese Bilateral Trade Data: How Big is China's Trade Surplus

Author:: John W. Schindler and Dustin H. Beckett
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Hong Kong plays a prominent role as a re-exporter of a large percentage of trade bound for or coming from China. Current reporting practices in China and its trading partners do not fully reflect this role and therefore provide a misleading picture of the origin or ultimate destination of Chinese exports and imports. We adjust bilateral trade data for both China and its trading partners to correct for this problem. We also correct for differences due to markups in Hong Kong and different standards for reporting trade (c.i.f. versus f.o.b.). For 2003, we estimate that China's overall trade surplus was between $53 billion and $126 billion, larger than that reported in official Chinese data, but smaller than that reported by China's trading partners. We also provide evidence that, in general, the actual origin of a good that is transshipped through Hong Kong is correctly reported by the importing country, but the final destination of such goods is not correctly reported by the exporting country.
Topic:: Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Hong Kong

57577. A Flexible Finite-Horizon Identification of Technology Shocks

Author:: Neville Francis, Michael T. Owyang, and Jennifer T. Roush
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Recent empirical studies using infinite horizon long-run restrictions question the validity of the technology-driven real business cycle hypothesis. These results have met with their own controversy, stemming from their sensitivity to changes in model specification and the general poor performance of long run restrictions in Monte Carlo experiments. We propose a alternative identification that maximizes the contribution of technology shocks to the forecast error variance of labor productivity at a long, but finite horizon. In small samples, our identification outperforms its infinite horizon counterpart by producing less biased impulse responses and technology shocks that are more highly correlated with the technology shocks from the underlying model. For U.S. data, we show that the negative hours response is not robust to allowing a greater role for non-technology shocks in the forecast error variance share at a ten year horizon.
Topic:: Development, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

57578. Exchange Rate Pass-through to U.S. Import Prices: Some New Evidence

Author:: Jaime Marquez, Mario Marazzi, Nathan Sheets, Joseph Gagnon, Robert J. Vigfusson, Jon Faust, Robert F. Martin, Trevor Reeve, and John Rogers
Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: This paper documents a sustained decline in exchange rate pass-through to U.S. import prices, from above 0.5 during the 1980s to somewhere in the neighborhood of 0.2 during the last decade. This decline in the pass-through coefficient is robust to the measure of foreign prices that is included in the regression (i.e., CPI versus PPI), whether the estimation is done in levels or differences, and whether U.S. prices are included as an explanatory variable. Notably, the largest estimates of pass-through are obtained when commodity prices are excluded from the regression. In this case, the pass-through coefficient captures both the direct effect of the exchange rate on import prices and an indirect effect operating through changes in commodity prices. Our work indicates that an increasing share of exchange rate pass-through has occurred through this commodity-price channel in recent years. While the source of the decline in passthrough is difficult to pin down with certainty, our work points to several factors, including the reduced share of (commodity-intensive) industrial supplies in U.S. imports and the increased presence of Chinese exporters in U.S. markets. We detect a particular step down in the passthrough coefficient around the time of the Asian financial crisis and document a shift in the export pricing behavior of emerging Asian firms around that time.
Topic:: Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and China

57579. A Variance Screen for Collusion

Author:: Rosa M. Abrantes-Metz, Luke M. Froeb, John F. Geweke, and Charles T. Taylor
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: In this paper, we examine price movements over time around the collapse of a bid-rigging conspiracy. While the mean decreased by sixteen percent, the standard deviation increased by over two hundred percent. We hypothesize that conspiracies in other industries would exhibit similar characteristics and search for "pockets" of low price variation as indicators of collusion in the retail gasoline industry in Louisville. We observe no such areas around Louisville in 1996-2002.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance

57580. Optimal Inflation Persistence: Ramsey Taxation with Capital and Habits

Author:: Sanjay Chugh
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Ramsey models of fiscal and monetary policy with perfectly-competitive product markets and a fixed supply of capital predict highly volatile inflation with no serial correlation. In this paper, we show that an otherwise-standard Ramsey model that incorporates capital accumulation and habit persistence predicts highly persistent inflation. The result depends on increases in either the ability to smooth consumption or the preference for doing so. The effect operates through the Fisher relationship: a smoother profile of consumption implies a more persistent real interest rate, which in turn implies persistent optimal inflation. Our work complements a recent strand of the Ramsey literature based on models with nominal rigidities. In these models, inflation volatility is lower but continues to exhibit very little persistence. We quantify the effects of habit and capital on inflation persistence and also relate our findings to recent work on optimal fiscal policy with incomplete markets.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance

57581. Working for Women, Worldwide

Author:: Paula J. Dobriansky
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: In 1995, at one of the largest international conferences ever held, women from around the world, representing both governments and the private sector, gathered in Beijing to set forth a platform for the political, economic, and social empowerment of women.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, and Gender Issues
Political Geography:: United States and Beijing

57582. Investment-Specific and Multifactor Productivity in Multi-Sector Open Economies: Data and Analysis

Author:: Luca Guerrieri, Dale W. Henderson, and Jinill Kim
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: In the last half of the 1990s, labor productivity growth rose in the U.S. and fell almost everywhere in Europe. We document changes in both capital deepening and multifactor productivity (MFP) growth in both the information and communication technology (ICT) and non-ICT sectors. We view MFP growth in the ICT sector as investment-specific productivity (ISP) growth. We perform simulations suggested by the data using a two-country DGE model with traded and nontraded goods. For ISP, we consider level increases and persistent growth rate increases that are symmetric across countries and allow for costs of adjusting capital-labor ratios that are higher in one country because of structural differences. ISP increases generate investment booms unless adjustment costs are too high. For MFP, we consider persistent growth rate shocks that are asymmetric. When such MFP shocks affect only traded goods (as often assumed), movements in 'international' variables are qualitatively similar to those in the data. However, when they also affect nontraded goods (as suggested by the data), movements in some of the variables are not. To obtain plausible results for the growth rate shocks, it is necessary to assume slow recognition.
Topic:: Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

57583. Financial Market Developments and Economic Activity during Current Account Adjustments in Industrial Economies

Author:: Steven B. Kamin, Sylvain Leduc, and Hilary Croke
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: Much has been written about prospects for U.S. current account adjustment, including the possibility of what is sometimes referred to as a “disorderly correction”: a sharp fall in the exchange rate that boosts interest rates, depresses stock prices, and weakens economic activity. This paper assesses some of the empirical evidence bearing on the likelihood of the disorderly correction scenario, drawing on the experience of previous current account adjustments in industrial economies. We examined the paths of key economic performance indicators before, during, and after the onset of adjustment, building on the analysis of Freund (2000).
Topic:: Development, Economics, Industrial Policy, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

57584. International Risk-Sharing and the Transmission of Productivity Shocks

Author:: Sylvain Leduc, Giancarlo Corsetti, and Luca Dedola
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: A central puzzle in international finance is that real exchange rates are volatile and, in stark contradiction to efficient risk-sharing, negatively correlated with cross-country consumption ratios. This paper shows that a standard international business cycle model with incomplete asset markets augmented with distribution services can account quantitatively for these properties of real exchange rates. Distribution services, intensive in local inputs, drive a wedge between producer and consumer prices, thus lowering the impact of terms-of-trade changes on optimal agents' decisions. This reduces the price elasticity of tradables separately from assumptions on preferences.
Topic:: Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:: United States

57585. An Assessment of the Impact of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention: 1991-2004

Author:: Alain P. Chaboud and Owen Humpage
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: We analyze the short-term price impact of Japanese foreign exchange intervention operations between 1991 and 2004, using official data from Japan's Ministry of Finance. Over the period as a whole, we find some evidence of a modest "against the wind" effect, but interventions do not have value as a forecast that the exchange rate will move in a direction consistent with the operations. Interventions conducted between 1995 and 2002, which were large and infrequent, met with a much higher degree of success. For the most recent episode of intervention, in 2003 and 2004, despite the record size and frequency of the overall episode, it is difficult to statistically distinguish the pattern of exchange rate movements on intervention days from that of all the days in that particular subperiod, showing little effectiveness. Still, while the evidence of Japanese intervention effectiveness is modest overall, it appears to be stronger than that found using similar techniques for U.S. intervention operations conducted in the 1980s and 1990s.
Topic:: Development, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Japan and Israel

57586. Going the Distance: The U.S. Tsunami Relief Effort

Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: On December 26, 2004, a magnitude 9.0 earthquake off the west coast of Northern Sumatra, Indonesia, triggered a tsunami—a series of giant waves—that inundated coastal areas of Indonesia, Thailand, Sri Lanka, India, and Malaysia, as well as Indian Ocean islands and parts of East Africa.
Topic:: International Relations, Development, Economics, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: Indonesia, Malaysia, India, Sri Lanka, Thailand, and East Africa

57587. Expansionary Fiscal Shocks and the Trade Deficit

Author:: Luca Guerrieri, Christopher Gust, and Christopher Erceg
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Abstract:: In this paper, we use an open economy DGE model (SIGMA) to assess the quantitative effects of fiscal shocks on the trade balance in the United States. We examine the effects of two alternative fiscal shocks: a rise in government consumption, and a reduction in the labor income tax rate. Our salient finding is that a fiscal deficit has a relatively small effect on the U.S. trade balance, irrespective of whether the source is a spending increase or tax cut. In our benchmark calibration, we find that a rise in the fiscal deficit of one percentage point of GDP induces the trade balance to deteriorate by less than 0.2 percentage point of GDP. Noticeably larger effects are only likely to be elicited under implausibly high values of the short-run trade price elasticity.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Economics, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: United States

57588. The Sources of Stigma for Means-Tested Government Programs

Author:: Jennifer Stuber and Mark Schlesinger
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Robert Wood Johnson Health Society Scholars Program
Abstract:: Stigma has been shown to discourage participation in means-tested government programs. Prior research cannot explain why this deterrent effect varies in intensity across different individuals and programs. We develop a more comprehensive model of the possible determinants of stigma associated with means-tested programs than has previously been suggested by studies of welfare stigma. We test hypotheses using unique data based on interviews with 1405 respondents in ten states and the District of Columbia. The results suggest that there are two distinct forms of stigma related to participation in means-tested government programs: one related to self-identity, the other to threats of negative treatment. Both forms of stigma are more pronounced for welfare compared to Medicaid. The sources of stigma identified by conventional treatments of welfare stigma (e.g. individual attributions of responsibility for poverty) have significant explanatory power, but neglect other important influences. We find that stigma is exacerbated by poor health and by minority status. Stigma is also fostered by the ways in which means-tested programs are implemented, including negative interactions with case workers, long waiting times and for Medicaid, applications for benefits in alternative enrollment sites such as health centers or hospitals. These findings suggest new points of leverage for addressing the potentially deleterious consequences of stigma.
Topic:: Development, Government, Health, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Colombia

57589. U.S. Policy in Colombia

Author:: William Wood
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: LEE H. HAMILTON: Good morning to all of you. Good morning. Thank you very much for coming to the Wilson Center this morning. We're delighted to have you here.
Topic:: Foreign Policy and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:: United States, Colombia, and South America

57590. Nontraditional Security Threats in the U.S.-Mexico Bilateral Relationship: Overview and Recommendations

Author:: John Bailey
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: Before September 11, 2001, security—primarily, anti-drug trafficking efforts—ranked among the top two or three issues in Mexico-U.S. relations. Since that day, security has dominated the U.S. policy agenda in foreign affairs, including the bilateral agenda. Mexico, which had put more emphasis on migration reform, has accepted the new reality as defined by the United States. This background paper identifies some of the more pressing nontraditional security threats in the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship and suggests recommendations to address them. Inevitably somewhat U.S.-centric, my approach is to cover a good deal of ground in broad-brush strokes, providing only enough detail to buttress the main points and illustrate the recommendations.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States and Mexico

57591. Challenges in Competitiveness: Infrastructure Development

Author:: Raul Rodriguez
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: Cross-border cooperation between the U.S. and Mexico in infrastructure development has been the topic of a vast number of conferences, discussion groups and reports for quite some time. But actual cooperation pales in comparison to the dramatic strides achieved in economic and business links between both countries.
Topic:: International Relations, Economics, Poverty, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States and Mexico

57592. No Illusions-Paradigm Shifting on Mexican Migration to the US in the Post- 9-11 World

Author:: T. Alexander Aleinikoff
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: The U.S.-Mexican immigration relationship has never been good. For most of their histories, the two countries have determined policy unilaterally despite a multitude of interconnections and a shared border of thousands of miles. The willful refusal to recognize common interests, the ability to pretend that sound policies can be crafted in isolation, is remarkable—and deeply counterproductive. Hopes for a “grand bargain” under the leadership of Presidents Fox and Bush faded quickly after the events of September 11, 2001. There may be a time in the future when such an agenda might be fruitfully pursued—and Andrés Rozental's pa per makes eminently sensible suggestions as to the elements that might constitute a grand bargain. But at the moment, at least on the U.S. side, policy development is viewed primarily—if not exclusively—as a matter of domestic politics and legislation. Interestingly, however, the debate on the American side may well play out in terms that are compatible with the elements of a “grand bargain.” I will argue that this result is due to shifting paradigms in the understanding of the U.S.-Mexican relationship: the Bush Administration's immigration proposals show movement away from a paradigm of control and toward one of a hemispheric labor market.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States and Mexico

57593. A U.S.-Mexico Partnership in Energy- A Policy of Convenience

Author:: José Alberro
Publication Date:: 01-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: Four years have come and gone in the Mexico-US relationship since the almost simultaneous inaugurations of Presidents Bush and Fox. The optimism bred by their first auspicious meetings has given way to aloofness and/or irritation in the post 9/11 era. Indeed, for some in the United States, Porfirio Díaz's dictum should be turned on its head to state “poor United States, so far away from God and so close to Mexico.” The fact remains that geography is destiny. Moreover, in the post-9/11, post-PRI environment, Mexico and the United States have complementary needs that could become the foundation of a policy of convenience and be the basis for a commitment to further strengthen their long- term economic ties.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States and Mexico

57594. Africa: The Development Challenges of the 21st Century

Author:: Callisto Madavo
Publication Date:: 09-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: An Introduction from Africa Program Director Howard Wolpe: The following remarks were delivered by Callisto Madavo, former Vice President for Africa at the World Bank, at a Congressional Staff Forum on Africa Retreat, convened by the Woodrow Wilson International Center March 8-10, 2005. A noted Zimbabwean economist, Callisto Madavo served as World Bank Vice President 1996-2005. Over the course of a distinguished 36-year career at the Bank, which included postings in the Middle East, East Asia and Africa, Madavo witnessed both the successes and failures of poverty reduction strategies in multiple settings. Now, with the world's attention being increasingly drawn to the challenge of poverty reduction in Africa, Madavo offers an important perspective on the context and history of the economic challenges facing the continent.
Topic:: Development, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: Africa

57595. Eye on Africa: A Scholar's Tale

Author:: Jesse Ribot
Publication Date:: 06-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: Ribot is a senior associate at the World Resources Institute (WRI) in Washington and currently a Wilson Center fellow working on a new book on rural democracy in Africa. Several years ago, he was writing a history of forestry in French West Africa, a story of a supposed deforestation crisis from 1880-1920. The colonial government had devised odd policies to fix this nonexistent problem—policies that would not have fixed it had there been a crisis. Furthermore, the policies concentrated access to lucrative resources in the hands of a few elites. "The discourse of 'deforestation crisis' was being used to expropriate the people's resources," Ribot said. "That was the real story."
Topic:: Democratization, Development, and Third World
Political Geography:: Africa and Washington

57596. Resolving the Three-Headed War from Hell

Author:: John Prendergast
Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: An Introduction from Program Director Howard Wolpe: John Prendergast, Special Advisor to the President of the International Crisis Group, is one of the country's leading Africanists, with most of his twenty-year career focused on conflict resolution in Africa, American policy toward the region, human rights promotion, and humanitarian action. During the Clinton Administration, Mr. Prendergast served as a Special Advisor, Department of State and a Director for African Affairs at the National Security Council. He has worked for a variety of nongovernmental organizations and think tanks in Africa and the United States, and has authored or co-authored seven books on Africa.This paper is based on an address delivered at a February 7, 2005 program at the Woodrow Wilson Center, cosponsored by the Center's Africa Program and Conflict Prevention Project. Mr. Prendergast wishes to acknowledge the contributions to this paper of Colin Thomas-Jensen of the International Crisis Group.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Politics, and War
Political Geography:: Africa

57597. Security and Sovereignty: Renewing NORAD

Author:: James Fergusson and Dwight Mason
Publication Date:: 03-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: Security and Sovereignty: Renewing NORAD is the third publication in the Canada Institute's One Issue,Two Voices series. Using expertise from both sides of the Canada–U.S. border, this series is the Institute's contribution to dialogue on policy issues relevant to the bilateral relationship. The focus of this paper is the upcoming NORAD renewal negotiation process.
Topic:: Security, Politics, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: United States and North America

57598. Threat Perceptions in the United States and Canada

Author:: Frank Graves and Karlyn Bowman
Publication Date:: 10-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: In this fourth issue of the Canada Institute's One Issue,Two Voices publication series, authors Karlyn Bowman of the American Enterprise Institute and Frank Graves of EKOS Research Associates explore the public's perceptions of threats and security issues in both the United States and Canada. As with past issues in the series, this publication brings expertise from both sides of the border to address policy-relevant questions of significance to the bilateral relationship.
Topic:: Security, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:: North America

57599. Renewing the U.S.-Canada Relationship

Publication Date:: 02-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: Relations between the United States and Canada have fallen into a noticeably cyclical pattern over the past half century or so. The American Assembly has been able during these years to turn its attention to the U.S.- Canada relationship precisely when it could do the most good. In 1964, when the first such Assembly gathered, sharp disagreements between Ottawa and Washington, primarily over defense and economic matters, ended the long, post-war “golden” period of amicable ties. In a similar vein, the 1984 Assembly met shortly after U.S. Secretary of State George P. Shultz had written President Ronald Reagan that something appeared to be “fundamentally wrong” between the United States and Canada.
Topic:: International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:: North America

57600. Environmental Change Security Program Report 11

Publication Date:: 04-2005
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Wilson Center
Abstract:: Since 1994, the Environmental Change and Security Program (ECSP) has promoted dialogue on the connections among environmental, health, and population dynamics and their links to conflict, human insecurity, and foreign policy. ECSP brings international policymakers, practitioners, and scholars to Washington, D.C., to address the public and fellow experts.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Development, and Environment
Political Geography:: Washington

Search

Search Constraints

Search Results

Refine your search

Topic

Political Geography

Content Type

Journal

Publishing Institution

Author

Publication Year

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS