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53951. Emerging Threats on the Internet

Author:
Mariyam Joyce-Hasham
Publication Date:
07-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Fears about extremist groups operating on the Internet are on the increase. This is paralleled by concern about the ways in which such groups can use Internet technology to disrupt or undermine familiar ways of life in stable societies. The Internet appeals particularly to groups that operate at substate level, most visibly the neo-Nazis and hate groups at the forefront of the resurgent white pride movement in America.
Topic:
Security and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
United States and America

53952. An Ever Larger Europe

Author:
Julie Smith
Publication Date:
05-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Thirteen countries are currently seeking to join the European Union. Several more countries, including some Southeast European states that have already signed Stability and Association Agreements with the EU, not to mention some of the Caucasian and Central Asian members of the CIS, have also expressed a desire to be considered for membership at some point in the future. While those former Soviet states, with the possible exception of Moldova, are unlikely to join, the EU is committed to enlarging to the south and east.
Topic:
International Organization
Political Geography:
Europe and Moldova

53953. Trade and Environment After Seattle

Author:
Duncan Brack
Publication Date:
04-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
The interrelationship between international trade and environmental protection is becoming increasingly important – and controversial. The volume of world trade in goods topped $5 trillion for the first time in 1996, having grown at an average rate of about 8% a year since the signing of the Marrakesh agreement in 1994 which marked the completion of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations. The set of agreements administered by the World Trade Organization (WTO), centred around the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and covering areas such as agriculture, textiles, services, intellectual property, technical barriers to trade and health standards, represents a significant extension in scope compared with its pre-Uruguay Round version. In turn this means that international trade regulation increasingly impinges on other areas of public policy.
Topic:
Environment, International Organization, and International Trade and Finance

53954. Gas For Oil Markets

Author:
Koji Morita
Publication Date:
02-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Public projections by the International Energy Agency, the US Energy Information Administration and the European Commission suggest that, with present policies, world consumption of gas will roughly double by 2020, taking about 5% of the primary energy market from other fuels. About half this gain will be at the expense of more carbon-intensive fossil fuels, mainly coal, but the other half will replace carbon-free nuclear energy. The net effect on the growth of greenhouse gas emissions will therefore be small. For comparison, gas consumption increased in the past 20 years by almost 80%, at the expense of other fossil fuels. Half the increased gas demand is projected for developing countries, compared with 45% of the increase over the past 20 years and their present share of about a quarter of total world gas consumption.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, and Environment
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

53955. Changing Oil

Author:
Norman Selley
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Black gold, as oil is sometimes called, has a double image. On the negative side crude oil is typically seen only when accidents occur – when it spills from ships, pollutes beaches or kills wildlife. The positive is taken for granted. Users rely on oil's refined products to power transport and heat or cool homes invisibly, as required. The twentieth century progressed hand in hand with increased usage of oil, in times of both war and peace, and can justifiably be described as the Oil Era.
Topic:
Emerging Markets, Energy Policy, Environment, Science and Technology, and Third World

53956. Financial Services Liberalization in China: Conservative Gradualism

Author:
Chen Yixin
Publication Date:
01-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Chatham House
Abstract:
Recent years have seen increasing liberalization of trade in financial services associated with the GATT / WTO negotiations. The Agreement concluded on 13 December 1997 by 70 WTO members will result in a significant impact on the financial services sector for these members. Although China has not yet been admitted to membership of the WTO, it has come under pressure to open its financial services market. Market access in this sector has been not only one of the major issues in its WTO accession talks, but also intrinsically linked to China's ongoing domestic financial system reforms, consistent with the gradualist scheme for its overall economic reform. China has been liberalizing its financial services sector, but only gradually. This paper outlines the reforms in its financial sector since 1979, and then offers an explanation for the slow speed of reform .
Topic:
Economics and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:
China and Shanghai

53957. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: December 2000

Publication Date:
12-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index declined 0.6 percent, the coincident index increased 0.1 percent, and the lagging index declined 0.1 percent in December. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity. The slowdown of the Leading Index is primarily a result of the sustained inverted yield curve, shorter manufacturing hours brought about by tapering consumer demand, and loss of confidence on the part of both business executives and consumers in the future direction of the economy. Since reaching a peak in September, the Coincident Index remains fairly flat, consistent with a moderation in the pace of economic activity. The six-month change of the Leading Index has been declining for 7 consecutive months with the most recent two months having declined over one percent. Prior to these past seven months, the last time the Leading Index posted a decline in the six-month change was in August of 1995.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

53958. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: November 2000

Publication Date:
11-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index increased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.3 percent in November. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components show an increasing risk of a downturn in economic activity ahead. Since the high of 106.3 in January of this year, the Leading Index was down in eight of the past ten months. This is in sharp contrast to a 1.5 to 2 percent gain annually in the previous three years. The coincident to lagging ratio, which also tends to lead business cycle peaks, reached a high of 110.3 last March and has declined to 109.3 in November. A decrease in the ratio means a sharper increase in the Lagging Index, which measures the cost of doing business, relative to the Coincident Index. A further, more dramatic weakening of the Leading Index in the next few months, together with a continued decline in the coincident to lagging ratio, would confirm the danger of a downturn.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

53959. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: October 2000

Publication Date:
10-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index decreased by 0.2 percent, the coincident index decreased by 0.1 percent, and the lagging index held steady in October. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity is slowing down to a more moderate pace. A cooling off in the economy from its faster pace earlier this year and last year is reflected in the nine straight months that the Leading Index has been either flat or declining. This was confirmed by the Coincident Index which registered a decline this month after 13 months of continuous gains. The leveling off of the leading and coincident indexes results from the sustained inverted yield curve and the tight labor market brought about by prolonged economic expansion.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy

53960. Composite Indexes of Leading, Coincident, and Lagging Indicators: September 2000

Publication Date:
09-2000
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The leading index held steady, the coincident index increased by 0.4 percent, and the lagging index increased by 0.1 percent in September. Taken together, the three composite indexes and their components suggest that the pace of economic activity continues to grow although more moderately. Strong income gains, together with increases in employment and industrial production, continue to drive the Coincident Index higher. The flat performance of the leading index partly results from the sustained inverted yield curve, which has the potential of hindering strong economic growth in the near term.
Topic:
Economics and Political Economy