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50442. Some Recommendations Following the Gaza Operation and the Israeli Elections
- Author:
- Bora Bayraktar and Can Yirik
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- The crisis that started with Hamas winning the Palestinian Authority (PA) elections in January of 2006 seems to have entered a new stage with the start of 2009. Israel, which provides the occupied PA with the bulk of its economic resources, the US and the EU classifying Hamas as a terrorist organization and the resulting 3 year long economic siege and blockade, and the Israeli operation that started on the 27th of December and lasted for 22 days have all made the humanitarian situation in this region unbearable.
- Topic:
- Disaster Relief, Humanitarian Aid, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Israel
50443. Iran, the Bomb and Turkey
- Author:
- Yalım Eralp
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- The question of Iran “ going nuclear” is of global concern. Iran has up to now used devious methods to violate the Non-Proliferation Treaty and has indeed misled the world community. The Obama Administration is concerned about these developments as much as the previous Bush Administration was. However, President Obama's approach to nuclear weapons in general and talks with Iran have been different both in essence and form. Another matter of concern has been the attitude of Israel and the manner in which the US has tried to handle the Israeli dossier towards Iran. The October 1st negotiations with Iran have been considered constructive by the West. These negotiations will take time and probably prove to be difficult. Turkey's attitude towards a “nuclear” Iran seems to be ambivalent in recent times, whereby while Turkey does not want a nuclear Iran, it seems to be pointing a finger to nuclear Israel.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, and Israel
50444. The Kurdish Question: The process and the grave mistakes by the Governments
- Author:
- Yalım Eralp
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- For many years successive governments in Turkey have ignored an even denied the existence of Kurds in Turkey. What would have been possible in the past by recognizing cultural rights has now been a problem whereby an operation seems to be needed. Two common and important mistakes of governments: one is to say Kurds are primary citizens of this country as if there are secondary citizens! The second is “end the terror and we will recognize some rights”. Basic rights cannot be negotiated. This second mistake has led Öcalan to announce his own road map paralel to the Governments. Negotiating with hostile entities is very difficult and needs public consensus. Turkey, unlike Britain and Spain does not have public consensus. The best way was and is to follow EU's democratisation road map.
- Topic:
- Government
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Turkey, and Kurdistan
50445. President Obama's Speech in Cairo: A new climate of hope on the world scene
- Author:
- Ozdem Sanberk
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- Will President Obama's speech in Cairo prove to have been a historic turning point in relations between the Islamic world and the United States? There is no doubt that the President himself sincerely intended it to be. And it is easy to see why. The antagonism between the USA and substantial sections of world Muslim opinion, particularly in the Arab Middle East and Iran, is one of the biggest challenges faced by US foreign policy, a clear threat to world peace. But can things change while the USA is closely aligned with Israel? How ?
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
50446. Suing for Sovereignty: Property, Territory, and the EU's Cyprus Problem
- Author:
- Rebecca Bryant and Mete Hatay
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- This article explores the actual and potential effects of recent European legal judgments on ongoing reunification negotiations in Cyprus. In particular, we argue that the European Union's failure to formulate a policy regarding the position of Turkish Cypriots in Europe has had increasingly negative consequences both for negotiations between the island's leaders and for relations between the Turkish Cypriot and Greek Cypriot communities. The EU has chosen to ignore the suspension of constitutional order in the Republic of Cyprus, in the process refusing to acknowledge the legal and political effects of the RoC's EU entry on Turkish Cypriots. We use a recent European Court of Justice judgment to illustrate the substantive effects of this hands-off approach, showing how the political use of transnational courts threatens to undermine what many have called the island's “last chance” at reunification.
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Cyprus
50447. Turkiye
- Author:
- Menekşe Tokyay
- Publication Date:
- 06-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- The relations between Turkey and the European Union, which have reached a unique level of harmonization and integration since the start of accession negotiations on 3 October 2005, has become one of the most important anchors for Turkish foreign policy. The accession negotiations towards full membership to the EU are still continuing despite a number of difficulties and delays. This Policy Brief aims to make an analysis of current developments regarding the accession process. It also intends to make some predictions about future prospects related to the EU-Turkey relations.
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
50448. The United Nations Security Council and Turkey
- Author:
- Yalım Eralp
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- Turkey became a non permanent member of the UN Security Council as of January 1, 2009. The Brief deals with the important functions of the Council and the election campaign which a candidate country to the Council may sometimes have to run. Five Security Council resolutions which have to various degrees changed the course of events are explained. More than that, the writer tries to portray the behind the scenes activities of the resolutions. Finally, by defining the atmosphere of the Council, the writer tries to give advice on what Turkey, as a non permanent member, should do and in particular the qualities which the Permanent Representative should possess.
- Topic:
- United Nations
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
50449. A Vision for the Centennial of Our Republic
- Author:
- Şadi Ergüvenç
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- There are now less than fifteen years left before we celebrate the centennial of the Republic of Turkey. Taking into consideration the fact that we, the humans, managed to squeeze into the last century two or three world wars and worn out several ideologies, even raising the Earth's temperature whilst exhausting its natural resources, no doubt we will be living in a much different world than the present one, in fifteen years from now... Moreover, the pace of change has increased such that it is incomparable with that of the past and the possibility of unforeseen technological and societal change has dramatically improved. The way the latest financial crisis erupted is the manifestation of such a potential. Since no one yet can predict the eventual outcome of the crises that suddenly shook the financial markets and economies like an earthquake, an attempt to foresee the first quarter of the 21st century might seem like a futile effort.
- Topic:
- Natural Resources and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Turkey
50450. What is a Nation?
- Author:
- Ingmar Karlsson
- Publication Date:
- 03-2009
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- The article analyzes what do terms such as nation and nationalism mean in the current age. The author provides the reader with an extensive historical background of the topic. He explains the relevant notions from the perspective of various philosophical approaches. The possibility of emergence of a European nation and the challenges waiting on the way to common European identity, are addresses, as well.
- Topic:
- Nationalism
- Political Geography:
- Europe
50451. Extended Deterrence, Security Guarantees, and Nuclear Proliferation: Strategic Stability in the Gulf Region
- Author:
- Daniel J. Moran and James A. Russell
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Strategic Insights
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Conflict
- Abstract:
- This special issue of Strategic Insights will continue our exploration of extended deterrence that began in our Fall 2009 issue. Its articles reflect the latest research as presented at the workshop on Extended Deterrence, Security Guarantees, and Nuclear Proliferation: Strategic Stability in the Gulf Region held at the Gulf Research Center, held in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on October 4-5, 2009.
- Topic:
- Security and Government
- Political Geography:
- United States and Arabia
50452. Extended Deterrence and Communicating Resolve
- Author:
- James M. Acton
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Strategic Insights
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Conflict
- Abstract:
- American thinking about extended deterrence has always tended to focus on its nuclear-weapon capabilities. It is no different today. The Strategic Posture Commission of the United States—a bipartisan commission appointed by Congress 'to examine and make recommendations with respect to the long-term strategic posture of the United States'—reached the following conclusion on the requirements needed to fulfill U.S. security guarantees to Japan. In Asia, extended deterrence relies heavily on the deployment of nuclear cruise missiles on some Los Angeles class attack submarines—the Tomahawk Land Attack Missile/Nuclear (TLAM/N). This capability will be retired in 2013 unless steps are taken to maintain it. U.S. allies in Asia are not integrated in the same way into nuclear planning and have not been asked to make commitments to delivery systems. In our work as a Commission it has become clear to us that some U.S. allies in Asia would be very concerned by TLAM/N retirement.
- Topic:
- Security
- Political Geography:
- United States and Asia
50453. Extended Deterrence, Security Guarantees and Nuclear Weapons: U.S. Strategic and Policy Conundrums in the Gulf
- Author:
- James A. Russell
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Strategic Insights
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Conflict
- Abstract:
- In July 2009, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told reporters during a visit to Bangkok: “We want Iran to calculate what I think is a fair assessment that if the United States extends a defense umbrella over the region, if we do even more to support the military capacity of those in the Gulf, it's unlikely that Iran will be any stronger or safer because they won't be able to intimidate and dominate as they apparently believe they can once they have a nuclear weapon.”
- Political Geography:
- United States
50454. Security Guarantees and Extended Deterrence in the Gulf Region: A European Perspective
- Author:
- Bruno Tertrais
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Strategic Insights
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Conflict
- Abstract:
- Extended deterrence consists in extending the logic of deterrence to a third party, that is, persuading a potential adversary that the costs of attacking a protected country would exceed its benefits through a security guarantee given to the protected party. To a large degree, it stems from any form of military alliance between a stronger country and a weaker one—although alliances per se generally include a mutual defense commitment, which is not a prerequisite to extended deterrence.
- Topic:
- Security
50455. Extended Deterrence and Iran
- Author:
- Shahram Chubin
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Strategic Insights
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Conflict
- Abstract:
- Despite nearly seven decades of Nuclear weapons, (NWs) and four decades of Cold war in which they figured prominently, we still do not know very much about, or with any degree of assurance, what NWs can and cannot do beyond create widespread destruction. Questions about deterrence, extended deterrence and the political utility of NWs and whether these are general propositions/ laws or culturally or state specific, cannot be reliably answered.
- Topic:
- Cold War and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iran
50456. Strategic Reassurance if Iran "Goes Nuclear": A Framework and Some Propositions
- Author:
- Lewis A. Dunn
- Publication Date:
- 01-2009
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Strategic Insights
- Institution:
- Center for Contemporary Conflict
- Abstract:
- Faced with continuing uncertainties about Iran's nuclear weapon ambitions, reassurance and deterrence have figured prominently in our discussions of Gulf and wider Middle East security. During this workshop, presentations also have addressed what may yet be done in an attempt to influence Iran's nuclear weapons calculus as talks begin between the P - 5 + 1 and Iran. My presentation seeks to address issues of strategic reassurance if Iran crosses the nuclear weapon threshold.
- Topic:
- Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
50457. Administrative Reform in International Organizations : The Case of the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS
- Author:
- Olivier Nay
- Publication Date:
- 10-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center on International Cooperation
- Abstract:
- This paper focuses on the causal factors, implementation, and side effects of administrative reforms launched within the United Nations system, in the field of HIV and AIDS. It is based on an empirical analysis of the UNAIDS Programme, an interorganizational system bringing together ten UN agencies to combat the worldwide epidemic, with the support of a Secretariat. Firstly, the paper argues that the administrative reform of UNAIDS was unlikely to have come from the UN organizations themselves, although the Programme was expected to lead these organizations to better coordinate and harmonize their AIDS strategies. Secondly, it identifies three external factors that have led UN organizations to reform their governance mechanisms and procedures. Thirdly, it explores the conditions under which the reform of UNAIDS has been implemented since 2005, with particular attention to the Secretariat that has become involved as an active “reform entrepreneur.” Finally, it identifies some of the unexpected effects of the reform, with a particular emphasison competition between UN agencies, organizational complexity, and bureaucratization. The concluding remarks argue that when analyzing administrative reforms within international organizations, one should investigate the interrelations between the external pressures that drive reforms and the activity of reform entrepreneurs.
- Topic:
- HIV/AIDS, Health, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, and Infectious Diseases
50458. La langue amère des temps nouveaux : dynamique de la violence au Rwanda rural
- Author:
- Emmanuel Viret
- Publication Date:
- 08-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- Dealing with the dynamics of rural violence under the multi-party transition (1991-1994), this paper suggests new points of view on the mobilization of Rwandan peasantry during the genocide (1994). Going through local archives and interviews held in the hills and in four prisons of the country, the analysis focuses on the increasing development of an economy of violence. The multi-party system incited competing rural elites to recruit a growing number of men and ruffians against other contenders in order to assure their access to power. Local elites (re)formed patron-client links previously dried by the spreading of money and wage incomes in the countryside. Particular attention is paid to the dimension of political entrepreneurship and to the relationship between social brokers and rural elites, in the course of the struggle between political parties as well as during the building of the Power coalitions which led the massacres locally.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Democratization, Economics, and Genocide
- Political Geography:
- Africa
50459. Le parcours du combattant : une approche biographique des militant(e)s sikh(e)s du Khalistan
- Author:
- Laurent Gayer
- Publication Date:
- 05-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
- Abstract:
- Between 1984 and 1995, the Indian Punjab was the theatre for a separatist insurrectional movement led by Sikh irregular armed groups. Most Sikh militants who picked up the gun against the Indian state were male, but a handful of women also took part in this armed struggle, which also enjoyed some support from Pakistan. Rather than the motivations of the fighters, it is their individual trajectories that are explored here. Following a critical biographical approach, paying attention to the silences of the actors and to the distorting effects of their ex-post testimonies, this paper aims at unraveling the familial genealogies of these militant careers, before identifying their successive sequences. Through this exercise, it is possible to shed light on individual dispositions towards engagement. However, this preliminary exercise must be followed up by an in-depth study of the conditions of actualization of these dispositions into a sustained form of commitment. Therefore, this paper focuses on the modalities of recruitment into clandestine organizations, before turning to the practical and psychological dilemmas induced by the return of these combatants to civilian life, which remain understudied. By introducing gender into the scope of the study, this paper also aims at assessing the variations between masculine and feminine ways of being and having been in clandestinity.
- Topic:
- Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- South Asia, India, and Punjab
50460. Countering Violent Extremism: Lessons Learned
- Author:
- Jonathan R. Mroz
- Publication Date:
- 07-2009
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- EastWest Institute
- Abstract:
- In his inaugural address, U.S. President Barack Obama told the Muslim world they would be judged by what they build, not what they destroy. But even if those who build far outnumber those who destroy, many governments and societies will continue to be confronted by the specter of violent extremism. The challenge they face is how to devise effective strategies to counter the extremists and encourage long-term solutions that go beyond merely containing the problem to addressing its root causes. This is the challenge we posed to a wide variety of participants in the EastWest Institute's Countering Violent Extremism Initiative.
- Topic:
- Political Violence, Islam, Terrorism, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States