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2. Politicization, Ratification of International Agreements, and Domestic Political Competition in Non-Democracies: The Case of Iran and the Paris Climate Accords
- Author:
- Reşat Bayer and Bijan Tafazzoli
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- While some degree of competition is present in many authoritarian regimes, the implications of such controlled competition on international issues have not received much consideration, including towards international environmental accords. We attempt to rectify this through a framework where we focus on internal political competition in a hybrid, nondemocratic system where national elections are held regularly. Specifically, we argue that the presence of multiple actors competing in elections in nondemocratic settings results in them assuming positions on various issues, justifying their positions, and attempting to mobilize their supporters with considerable implications for international environmental policies. We display our argument in the context of Iranian debates on the ratification of the Paris Climate Accords. Our findings demonstrate that the competing Iranian sides rely on different justifications for their environmental positions, resulting in extensive (negative) competitions of rhetoric where the international dimension emerges as an important feature in the internal competition. Overall, we show that political competition within non-democracies is likely to add to the complexity of international (environmental) negotiations and cooperation.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Environment, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, Authoritarianism, Elections, Paris Agreement, Narrative, and Regime Survival
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
3. Assessing the Impact of Turkey’s Quest for Status Since the 2000s on Foreign Policy Change: Transformational or Transactional?
- Author:
- Samiratou Dipama and Emel Parlar Dal
- Publication Date:
- 01-2024
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- This paper delves into an assessment of the impact of Turkey’s quest for status since the 2000s on changes in its foreign policy. In other words, how has Turkey’s search for status influenced its foreign policy stances since the 2000s? And can we consider the changes in Turkey’s foreign policy change transformational or transactional in essence? In this vein, this paper will make essential contributions to the existing literature on Turkey’s status-seeking strategies by using specific cases to link them to changes in Turkey’s foreign policy and assessing the extent to which they are transactional or transformational. The examination of this topic is all the more important in light of internal developments in Turkey, such as democratic backsliding and economic crisis, as well external factors such as its tense relationships with the EU, its rapprochement with Russia and China, and its increasingly proactive profile in regional crises. This paper critically assesses the pattern of Turkey’s foreign policy change from transformational and transactional perspectives.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Status, and International Politics
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
4. A Genealogy of the Concept of Civilization (Medeniyet) in Ottoman Political Thought: A Homegrown Perception?
- Author:
- Mustafa Serdar Palabıyık
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- Since the first translation of the concept of civilization into Turkish as “medeniyet” in 1837 by Sadık Rıfat Pasha, the then Ottoman Ambassador to Vienna, this coinage has turned out to be an essential component of Turkish modernization. This paper aims to establish a genealogy of the concept of “medeniyet” to demonstrate the divergences of Ottoman perceptions in different periods throughout the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. It argues that civilization was first perceived by a group of Ottoman intellectuals as a tool to reach an ideal state of being (c. 1840-1860). The next generation of Ottoman intellectuals (c. 1860-1890) defined civilization as “the” ideal state of being, yet they had different views on the concept, particularly concerning the distinction between material and moral elements of civilization. Finally, the third generation of Ottoman intellectuals (c. 1890-1920), whose thoughts were more or less crystallized under three broad political currents labeled as Westernism, Islamism, and Turkism, had different and sometimes contradicting perceptions of civilization based on their political outlooks. By referring to the writings of these intellectuals, the paper will discuss central debates on civilization in the late Ottoman Empire, such as the singularity/plurality of civilization(s), the existence of Islamic civilization as an alternative to European civilization, the degree of importing from European civilization, and the distinction between culture and civilization. Moreover, it argues that the Turkish perception of “medeniyet” is different from the European perception of “civilization”; in other words, while the Ottoman perception of the concept of civilization is not homeborn, it is homegrown. Accordingly, Ottoman intellectuals not only divided the material and moral elements of civilization and opted for importing the former, but they also questioned the singularity and supremacy of European civilization by referring to “Islamic civilization” either as an extinct yet once-present form of civilization or as a potential rival to European civilization.
- Topic:
- Politics, History, Modernization, Civilization, and Ottoman Empire
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
5. Is There a Way Forward for Political Resolution in Yemen?
- Author:
- Fatima Abo Alasrar and Ibrahim Jalal
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Director of MEI's Arabian Peninsula Program Gerald Feierstein speaks to MEI Non-Resident Scholars Fatima Abo Alasrar & Ibrahim Jalal on a host of current events in Yemen. What have been the takeaways from U.S. Special Envoy Timothy Lenderking's recent visit to the country - and what are the current trends in the Saudi-Houthi dialogue?
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Diplomacy, Politics, Houthis, and Armed Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Gulf Nations
6. Russia's Influence in MENA After a Year of War in Ukraine
- Author:
- Matthew Czekaj, Iulia-sabina Joja, Alex Vatanka, Yörük Işık, Charles Lister, and Roger Kangas
- Publication Date:
- 02-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- MEI Managing Editor Matthew Czekaj speaks with scholars Iulia-Sabina Joja, Alex Vatanka, Yörük Işık, Charles Lister, and Roger Kangas on Russia's current standing in the Middle East a year since re-invading Ukraine. How has Russian aggression in Ukraine redrawn Moscow’s relationships in the MENA region? And as the Middle East increasingly becomes a key area of global great power competition, is Russia still a meaningful player there, politically, economically, militarily, and diplomatically?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Politics, Military, and Russia-Ukraine War
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Ukraine, Middle East, Eastern Europe, and North Africa
7. How Monarchies End
- Author:
- Stephen Grand
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In a new Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative issue brief, “How Monarchies End”, Atlantic Council’s Nonresident Senior Fellow Stephen R. Grand flips the analytical script on the spate of notable publications covering “how democracies die.” Grand examines what happens when autocratic rule corrodes and what pushes it to ultimately crumble. Under what circumstances do kings and queens, emperors and caliphs, cease to rule — either because their throne is transformed into a more ceremonial post or because they lose power entirely? For the eight remaining Arab monarchs, the downfall of their former global peers offer critical insights and parallels. The issue brief examines these topics and provides strategies for managing challenges to power, as well as a series of lessons for Arab monarchs to consider.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, Monarchy, and Resilience
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Gulf Nations
8. China’s subsea-cable power in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Dale Aluf
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In a new Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative issue brief, “China’s subsea-cable power in the Middle East and North Africa,” Aluf analyzes China’s campaign to make countries in the region more dependent on Chinese networks, while reducing its own dependence on foreign cables. For a country that seeks to alter the internet’s physical form and influence digital behavior while exerting supreme control over information flows, China’s growing presence in the Middle East and North Africa’s cable industry is significant because Beijing has the power to shape the route of global internet traffic by determining when, where, and how to build cables.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Politics, Science and Technology, Partnerships, and Innovation
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Asia, and North Africa
9. Holding the Islamic Republic of Iran accountable for atrocity crimes
- Author:
- Celeste Kmiotek, Alana Mitias, and Nushin Sarkarati
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With little to no prospect for accountability within Iran’s domestic courts, victims and survivors of serious violations of international law are turning toward an increasing number of foreign jurisdictions—most commonly in Europe and North America, but also in Latin America, Africa, and other regions—to pursue justice for human rights violations carried out by the Islamic Republic of Iran. Under the principle of universal jurisdiction, certain domestic justice systems allow prosecutions in national courts for crimes committed abroad, regardless of the victim’s or perpetrator’s nationality. Universal jurisdiction stems from the concept that certain crimes are of such gravity that they harm the international community as a whole, so national courts outside the country where the violations took place may prosecute them to protect the international order. Although the crimes subject to universal jurisdiction provisions differ by state, they generally include crimes against humanity, torture, war crimes, and genocide. Limitations on universal jurisdiction also vary between states, however, as do the processes for filing complaints and procedures for investigations, trials, and appeals. As was shown by the trial and conviction of Hamid Noury in Sweden for his involvement in the massacre of Iranian political prisoners in 1988, national prosecutions of international crimes can be a fruitful avenue to justice for victims of the Islamic Republic. To this end, the Atlantic Council’s Strategic Litigation Project has compiled a guide to aid practitioners and independent investigators in navigating the legal systems of European states with the highest likelihood of prosecuting Iranian human rights violators. Focusing on five states—France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Switzerland—this manual outlines the crimes and violations subject to universal jurisdiction, best practices for investigating and documenting crimes, and processes for requesting investigations and participating in prosecutions as a victim, witness, or NGO. For information that is beyond the scope of this manual, the annex includes printed resources to consult and organizations to contact for additional assistance.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Human Rights, Politics, Rule of Law, Accountability, Norms, Atrocities, Resilience, and Society
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
10. Politics of Sports in the Middle East
- Author:
- Marc Lynch, Curtis R. Ryan, Marc Owen Jones, Ehsan Kashfi, and Majd Abuamer
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- Following the 2022 World Cup, POMEPS partnered with Georgetown University-Qatar’s Center for International and Regional Studies—which has had a long-standing interest in studying sports and politics in the MENA region, and most recently completed a multiyear project on the World Cup—to bring together a group of scholars from the Middle East, Europe, and the United States to explore the deep interconnections between football and politics in the Middle East. We invited scholars from a wide range of perspectives, making sure to include contributions focused not only on the Arab world but also on Iran and Turkey. The essays in this collection offer a rich and varied window into these multidimensional politics, from the local to the global and from the historical to the contemporary. They offer a tantalizing glimpse into the possibilities for future research.
- Topic:
- Politics, Sports, Political Science, and Soccer
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Turkey, Middle East, and Arab Countries
11. Tradition and Protest: The Druze Community in Lebanese Politics
- Author:
- Moran Levanoni
- Publication Date:
- 08-2023
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
- Abstract:
- In our new issue of al-Durziyya: Druze and Other Minorities in the Middle East, Dr. Moran Levanoni analyzes political trends among the Druze community and their impact on Lebanese politics in the last parliamentary election. This article suggests that the political, social, and economic crises Lebanon is going through affected voting patterns within the Druze community, allowing new members to participate instead of the old guard of traditional politicians.
- Topic:
- Politics, Minorities, Hezbollah, and Druze
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
12. House in disorder: How Europeans can help Palestinians fix their political system
- Author:
- Hugh Lovatt
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR)
- Abstract:
- Thirty years after the Oslo accords, Israel’s annexation of Palestinian territory is entrenching open-ended conflict and what is increasingly recognised as apartheid. A third intifada is simmering in the West Bank amid expanding Israeli military raids, growing settler violence, and the resurgence of Palestinian armed groups. Conflict in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is further destabilising Gaza and southern Lebanon, risking a serious interlocking regional crisis. A weak and unpopular Palestinian Authority, combined with deepening rivalries among Palestinian leaders and factions, are increasing Palestinian political dysfunction, and exacerbating instability. Confronting Israel’s international law violations remains key. But Europeans can help mitigate negative dynamics by leveraging their funding relationship with the PA to revive Palestinian institutions and reverse the PA’s authoritarian slide. The EU should work with Gulf monarchies to reconfigure post-Abraham accords diplomacy in support of Palestinian rights and national representation.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Politics, Institutions, and Palestinian Authority
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United States of America
13. Nuclear energy and proliferation in Turkey’s Asian Politics
- Author:
- Eliza Gheorghe
- Publication Date:
- 01-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- The share of nuclear power in Asia’s electricity generating capacity has grown significantly over the last two decades. China is one of the dominant players in Asia, developing a robust nuclear power program. In the Middle East, Iran and the United Arab Emirates have introduced nuclear power into the region, with Turkey planning to follow in their footsteps in 2023. The adoption of nuclear power spurs concerns about the proliferation of nuclear weapons and nuclear latency. Some countries use their civilian nuclear programs to develop a robust infrastructure that allows them to acquire nuclear weapons in a relatively short period of time. Such dynamics are likely to have a destabilizing effect on international affairs in the Middle East and Asia. The current international situation makes it unlikely that the nuclear non-proliferation regime will become stronger in the near future. The war in Ukraine has demonstrated the need for a new generation of negative security assurances and collective defense that protects countries from nuclear blackmail.
- Topic:
- Arms Control and Proliferation, Politics, Electricity, and Nuclear Energy
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Asia
14. Do Campaign Speeches Predict Foreign Policy? An Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis of Donald Trump’s MENA Policies
- Author:
- Merve ÖZDEMİRKIRAN-EMBEL, B. Toygar Halistoprak, and Michael Young
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Uluslararasi Iliskiler
- Institution:
- International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
- Abstract:
- This article investigates whether campaign speeches during the US presidential elections can help predict foreign policy behavior. We use speeches made by Donald J. Trump during his bid for president in 2016. We compare the analysis from 2016 with his actual foreign policy decisions during his tenure, 2017-2020. Operational code analysis and leadership traits analysis approaches are used to analyze candidate Trump’s foreign policy beliefs and strategies associated with them. We use Profiler Plus software to conduct content analysis which produces OCA and LTA results. We use three separate datasets to analyze Trump’s beliefs and traits focusing on his general foreign policy speeches, the MENA region, and a third one only about Islamic State and Syria. Our results show that Trump’s profile indicates a foreign policy orientation that avoids involvement in affairs that are perceived as beyond immediate interests. The consistency between his beliefs and traits during the 2016 campaign and his actual foreign policy behavior leads us to conclude that individual level analysis, and specifically OCA and LTA approaches, are useful tools to analyze, explain and predict foreign policy.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Elections, Leadership, Donald Trump, and Political Beliefs
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North America, and United States of America
15. Family Rule in Iraq and the Challenge to State and Democracy
- Author:
- Sardar Aziz and Bilal Wahab
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- After the fall of Saddam Hussein’s dictatorship in 2003, Iraqi political parties proliferated in a show of enthusiasm for the country’s emerging democracy. In recent years, however, a handful of personalities and families have consumed all of the country’s political oxygen, dashing hopes for a truly pluralistic ecosystem. Especially discouraging has been the authoritarian shift in Kurdistan, once viewed as a democratic beacon in the Middle East. At the federal level, feuding between the Sadr and Maliki camps now dominates Shia politics, and Mohammed al-Halbousi has crowded out other Sunni players. Meanwhile, corruption touches every surface, and the rare official who holds to ethical standards risks being rendered entirely ineffectual. In this wide-ranging Policy Note, experts Sardar Aziz and Bilal Wahab outline the dispiriting state of Iraqi politics and how the United States can respond. To achieve the scaled-down goals of maintaining sovereignty and accountability, they argue, American officials must be creative, working with Iraqi institutional actors while simultaneously engaging with less central figures such as apolitical military commanders and the business community.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, Democracy, State, and Shia Islam
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
16. The Palestinian Authority Thirty Years After Oslo
- Author:
- Neomi Neumann
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Palestinians and Israelis mark the thirtieth anniversary of the Oslo Accords, it is worth pausing to examine what remains of the original promise contained in the agreement (hint: something does remain). More than that, it is worth examining whether those remnants can survive the many challenges facing the Palestinian Authority, especially those likely to emerge “the day after” President Mahmoud Abbas exits the stage.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, Democracy, Palestinian Authority, and Israeli–Palestinian Conflict
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
17. Cash Cabal: How Hezbollah Profits from Lebanon's Financial Crisis
- Author:
- Samara Azzi and Hanin Ghaddar
- Publication Date:
- 06-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In March 2020, Lebanon opted for a “hard default” on $32 billion in sovereign debt, allowing the government to avoid negotiating with its Eurobond holders and investors. Beirut thereafter showed little interest in addressing the consequences of default, and the country’s economic meltdown worsened. As usual, the Lebanese people were the casualties, suffering amid what the World Bank has called a “deliberate depression.” This official negligence has cleared the way for a proliferating cash economy—which in turn has spawned a currency exchange scheme involving the central bank, foreign exchange agents, and Lebanese politicians. Hezbollah specifically has profited in areas ranging from real estate to solar energy, pharmaceuticals, and the illicit Captagon trade. In this Policy Note, authors Samara Azzi and Hanin Ghaddar—a venture capitalist and a former Lebanese journalist—skillfully diagram the corrupt status quo and explain why entrenched actors want to avoid systemic change. But as the study makes clear, the future health of the Lebanese economy requires an overhaul, and the international community must now press for deep reforms and personal accountability.
- Topic:
- Politics, Non State Actors, Financial Crisis, Economy, Hezbollah, and Shia Islam
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
18. Turkey's Pivotal 2023 Elections: Issues, Potential Outcomes, and What Comes After
- Author:
- Soner Cagaptay
- Publication Date:
- 04-2023
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On May 14, Turkey’s citizens will cast their ballots for president and parliament, and polls suggest the longtime incumbent could actually lose this time. President Erdogan’s challenger, Republican People’s Party head Kemal Kilicdaroglu, has assembled an ideologically diverse coalition united in its determination to oust the ruling bloc. Guiding the opposition, known popularly as the “Table of Six,” is a message focused on restoring competence amid sky-high inflation and a faltering response to the devastating February earthquakes. But Erdogan’s challengers still face headwinds created in part by his near-complete control of the media. In this Policy Note compilation, Turkey expert Soner Cagaptay and his fellow contributors concur that Erdogan will use polarizing tactics to keep power, whatever the results of the May 14 balloting or a possible May 28 presidential runoff. They also assess how various wild card developments—including the entry of spoiler candidate Muharrem Ince and meddling from Russia—could aid the Turkish leader in unforeseen ways.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Democracy, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Strategic Competition, and AKP
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
19. Why China Is Taking Sides Against Israel—and Why It Will Likely Backfire
- Author:
- Michael Singh
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- When news broke of the Hamas attack on Israel last month, the silence from Beijing was conspicuous amid the din of international statements. When the government finally addressed the conflict at a press conference the day after, its words were remarkable for being unremarkable. An unnamed Foreign Ministry spokesperson expressed “deep concern,” called on “relevant parties to remain calm, exercise restraint, and immediately end the hostilities,” and lamented the “protracted standstill of the peace process”—a diplomatic endeavor in which Beijing has never shown more than a passing interest. The wording was nearly identical to China’s reactions during past Gaza conflicts, despite the fact that the circumstances were radically different. Because the brief remarks failed to condemn Hamas or even recognize the scale of the horrors that occurred on October 7, Israeli commentators interpreted them not as neutral, but as hostile. Beijing soon confirmed that interpretation. On October 14, Foreign Minister Wang Yi asserted that Israel’s actions went “beyond the scope of self-defense” and demanded that it stop imposing “group punishment” on Palestinians, while still refusing to condemn Hamas. (For a full listing of Beijing’s official statements on the conflict, see The Washington Institute’s statement tracker.) Chinese media have likewise presented the war as one of Israeli aggression—despite being heavily censored, their early reports were rife with anti-Semitic, anti-Israel commentary claiming that Hamas was defending the two-state solution, even though the group’s past and present actions are patently bent on destroying the Israeli state. Notably, the strident tone in online Chinese commentary moderated in the run-up to President Xi Jinping’s November 15 meeting with President Biden, underscoring the government’s well-established influence over such messaging. This approach is a stark departure from Beijing’s past impassivity toward Middle East conflicts, in which Chinese officials had usually sought to avoid entanglement. Rather, it reflects the government’s new inclination to use far-flung conflicts as opportunities to undermine the United States and score points in the “Global South.” Yet it could also hold longer-term consequences for China, particularly regarding the government’s three-decade effort to improve relations with Israel. In addition, using the current crisis to take potshots at Washington may constrain Beijing’s ability to project impartiality in other regional conflicts.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Strategic Competition, and Palestinians
- Political Geography:
- China, Middle East, Israel, Asia, and Gaza
20. Making Sense of Iraq’s Politicized Supreme Court Rulings
- Author:
- Selin Uysal
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- On November 14, Iraq’s Federal Supreme Court (FSC) made waves by ruling on a complaint against Speaker of Parliament Mohammed al-Halbousi, ultimately deciding to revoke his membership in the legislature. In the absence of any appeal mechanism, Halbousi will have to step down from the speakership he has held since 2018—a development that will have ripple effects on the provincial elections scheduled for December 18.
- Topic:
- Politics, Supreme Court, and Judiciary
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
21. Can Federalism Work in Lebanon?
- Author:
- Robert Rabil
- Publication Date:
- 03-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As Lebanon’s economic and socio-political conditions have spiraled downward since the rise and fractionalization of the 2019 popular protests—known as the October 17 Revolution—various proposals have emerged as to how to remedy the bankrupt and virtually failed state. All agree that the current outlook is grim; today, the Lebanese currency has lost almost all its value and the presidential seat is contested and remains vacant. Political elites are at loggerheads and blamed for robbing the state, society is polarized across intra- and inter-confessional lines, and poverty has reached a popular level not seen since the Great Famine of World War I. Among the proposed suggestions is the federal option, put as an alternative to the country’s confessional system. Such ideas are not new; in fact, the federal option had been championed and the subject of debate among mainly Christian politicians and parties prior to and during Lebanon’s civil war (1975-1990). President Camille Chamoun (1952-1958) offered a detailed plan for a federal Lebanon; the Lebanese Front, representing mainly Maronite aspirations, likewise presented a federal project during the Lebanon National Dialogue in Lausanne in 1984; and president-elect Bashir Gemayel, assassinated in 1982, toyed with the idea of federalism. However, Lebanon’s civil war ended when the antagonistic parties signed the Document of National Reconciliation of 1989, also known as the Taif Agreement, which introduced administrative decentralization instead of federalism. And while the agreement ended the civil war, it subsequently ushered in an era of Lebanese politics marked by the Syrian occupation of Beirut until 2005 and the rise of the Islamist Shia party Hezbollah, effectively building a state within a state and commanding a militia more or less better equipped than the Lebanese Armed Forces. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s political elites entered into a Faustian pact with Hezbollah under which they legitimized the ‘Party of God’ in exchange for turning a blind eye to their theft of the state. It is this bargain that has brought Lebanon to its almost total collapse as a state and a nation.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Reform, Shia, and Federalism
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
22. Hakan Fidan and the New Turkish Diplomacy in Iraq
- Author:
- Firas Elias
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Following President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s victory in the Turkish general elections in May 2023, Turkish foreign policy in Iraq has the potential to evolve in a different direction under the new Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hakan Fidan. Though the management of Turkey’s affairs in Iraq has shifted between various Turkish institutions since 2003, President Erdoğan has consolidated decision-making into his own hands since 2017, and his recent appointment of Fidan—a former intelligence director and loyal ally of Erdoğan—signals a continuation of this process, especially vis-a-vis Iraq. As Director of National Intelligence, Fidan oversaw the most sensitive backchannels with various regional and international actors, and he played a leading role in formulating Turkish intelligence and security policy. Notably, Fidan also led Turkey's reconciliation efforts with a variety of adversaries, including Egypt and Saudi Arabia. He has also been intimately involved in Turkish efforts to combat the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), targeting many PKK leaders and allied factions in northern Iraq, particularly in Sinjar, Makhmur, and al-Kuwayr. In this regard, Fidan comes equipped with deep connections to Iraq’s bureaucratic circles, having already succeeded in building bridges between various Iraqi actors and institutions. In particular, Fidan has developed close ties with both Sunni and Kurdish political leaders and has good relations with Falih al-Fayyadh, chairman of the Popular Mobilization Forces, whom he met during one of his secret trips to Iraq in September 2022. Fidan notably conducted such bridge-building efforts during the formation of the current Iraqi government led by Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. Given this background in Iraqi politics along with his experience in intelligence, Fidan is an important player through which Erdoğan can rethink Turkish involvement in Iraq on a number of different issues. Though Fidan’s appointment certainly indicates a shift toward more security-focused policies for Turkey, the new minister will also have to balance Turkey’s political ties, economic and energy interests, environmental concerns, and military operations in Iraq. Indeed, Erdoğan likely hopes that Fidan can both diversify Turkey’s relationship networks in Iraq and reestablish normalized energy negotiations with key partners while also curbing the threat of the PKK and Iranian-aligned militias operating in Turkey’s areas of involvement in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Politics, and Energy
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East
23. Sinjar: Challenges and Resilience Nine Years after Genocide
- Author:
- Izat Noah
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Nearly a decade later, many victims are still missing, and thousands now live in displacement camps in unstable, unsanitary conditions. This anniversary is an opportunity to reflect on the ongoing armed conflict in the Sinjar region and the profound influence on its inhabitants. It also serves as an opportunity to appreciate the resilience of the Yazidis, looking toward a future with new hope and new aspirations—a future where Yazidis can experience peace, stability, justice, and equitable opportunities to reconstruct their lives and their communities. Yazidi resilience is clearly evident in how they bore the burden of this genocide, how they have persevered in the face of ongoing persecution and genocide for centuries, and how they have been steadfast in maintaining their identity and heritage despite these adversities and the repeated campaigns to tarnish their image. Yet Yazidis still face significant challenges in Iraq today. Despite relative stability in the Sinjar region, there are concerns among the Yazidi population about the return of armed conflict between groups vying for influence. Even more troubling, the issue of expulsion and displacement remains unresolved despite the liberation of Sinjar from ISIS in 2015. Many Yazidis still live in displacement camps, where they are without their homes, their land, or their basic rights. These refugees have yet to be materially compensated for their losses.
- Topic:
- Genocide, Politics, Terrorism, and Yazidis
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Sinjar
24. How to Stop Iraqi Kurdistan’s “Bleeding”
- Author:
- Bilal Wahab
- Publication Date:
- 09-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- In a recent letter to President Biden that was soon reinforced by three U.S. lawmakers, Prime Minister Masrour Barzani of Iraq’s Kurdistan Regional Government expressed his alarm over the region’s survival. Noting that the KRG is “bleeding economically and hemorrhaging politically,” he laid the blame on Baghdad’s “dishonorable campaign” against Erbil. Barzani has a point—federal authorities have indeed been undoing the KRG’s hard-won autonomy in the years since the Islamic State fell and the Kurds launched an unsuccessful independence bid. Most notably, Baghdad has recentralized policymaking in the capital and blocked Kurdish oil exports amid a decade-old dispute over energy management. Yet Barzani’s narrative does not tell the whole story. The United States has long supported Iraqi Kurdistan’s autonomy, security, and development, fostering greater stability and pro-American sentiment. At the same time, however, Washington has overlooked the KRG’s vulnerabilities—namely, the internal divisions, corruption, and democratic backsliding that have diminished Erbil’s reliability and brought on the current existential crisis. The United States has a strategic interest in continuing to promote a stable and prosperous KRG, but it cannot do so without addressing the region’s internal problems.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Autonomy, and Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG)
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Kurdistan
25. Lebanese-Turkish Relations after the 2000s and the Neo-Ottomanist Discourse in Lebanon
- Author:
- Tuba Yıldız
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Turkish Journal of Middle Eastern Studies
- Institution:
- Sakarya University (SAU)
- Abstract:
- Lebanon, had non-visible relationships with Turkey after its independence and the post-civil war period. Although it lost the balance of political stability at times, the political affinity that emerged with the participation of Lebanon in the close relations, which Turkey sought to establish with Arab countries in the 2000s, continued with mutual negotiations at the point of cooperation. After the Lebanon-Israel war in 2006, which caused political and economic destruction in the country, Turkey increased its support for Lebanon. Accordingly, the crises appeared after the Arab Spring in the region led Turkey to follow the sensitive policy over the sectarian groups in the country. However, some reactions arose in Lebanon’s political arena against Turkey’s increasing regional activism, bringing several ideological questions on Turkey’s approach towards Lebanon. Regarding the relationship between Turkey and Lebanon, “Does Turkey desire to establish a new Ottoman administration in the Middle East?” was one of the questions asked. Moreover, a negative environment was created and used occasionally as a trump card against Turkey’s approach toward Lebanon, saying that even the Ottoman Empire did not play an active role in the Lebanon region. This study examines whether there are traces of Neo-Ottomanism and sectarianism in the political roadmap followed by the Turkish Government in its Lebanon policy. It discusses, the diplomatic response of Turkey to the anti-Ottoman rhetoric in Lebanese politics and its effect on bilateral relations. Accordingly, the study analyzes Turkey’s effort to maintain the balance against sectarian discourse that shapes Lebanon’s policy.
- Topic:
- Politics, Sectarianism, Neo-Ottomanism, and Regional Power
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, and Lebanon
26. Impacts of Saudi-Israel Relations on the Middle East: An Analysis
- Author:
- Zahid Yaseen, Muhammad Muzaffar, and Kinza Tariq
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Journal of Political Studies
- Institution:
- Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
- Abstract:
- This qualitative study aims to analyze the impact of Saudi-Israel relations on the Middle East. The study also focused on the reaction of Arab countries to their bilateral ties and incidents that have arisen in the Middle East as a direct result of tensions between Saudi Arabia and Israel. The deteriorating condition of relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia wreaked havoc throughout the region. The United States plays a pivotal role in the politics of the Middle East; therefore, a nation that is willing to operate as the United States' right hand was sorely needed in the region. Israel, a country that is not recognized on a global scale, has set up shop in that vacated seat. Together, they aid proxy wars between Saudi Arabia and Iran, which contributes to instability in the region. The only thing that could diminish the damage would be a concerted effort by Muslim states against Israel.
- Topic:
- Politics, Bilateral Relations, Normalization, and Instability
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Saudi Arabia
27. Quo Vadis, Turkish IR? Mapping Turkish IR’s Footsteps within the Global
- Author:
- İrem Karamık and Erman Ermihan
- Publication Date:
- 07-2023
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
- Institution:
- Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
- Abstract:
- The International Relations (IR) discipline is ascendant because of the theoretical and methodological divisions and controversies within. As it is mostly placed in the Non-Western IR category, Turkish IR is an interesting case in that it reveals the temporal changes of theoretical debates in IR and their local resonance from the purview of a geography that is jammed between the West and the rest. For this reason, this paper examines the literature on the Turkish School of IR (if there is any) and draws some conclusions regarding its current state. This research first utilizes the Teaching, Research, and International Policy (TRIP) surveys conducted by the International Relations Council of Turkey (IRCT) between 2007 and 2018. More extensively, the top 20 journals categorized under Google Scholar’s “Diplomacy and International Relations” list are coded based on their titles containing “Turkey.” Articles from the 1922–2021 period are then analyzed considering their authors, abstracts, and keywords. From this analysis, the study finds that studies focusing on Turkey have improved over the years, although there is a need for more theoretical and methodological advancements. As a “peripheral” country in IR, Turkey is still a subject of study by the “center” countries.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Politics, and Methodology
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
28. What is Iran's Next Move?
- Author:
- Abdolrasool Divsallar and Alex Vatanka
- Publication Date:
- 12-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted an on-the-record briefing to discuss Iran's next moves in light of the Israel-Hamas War and the resulting shifts in regional dynamics.
- Topic:
- Politics, Hamas, Armed Conflict, and Regional Security
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
29. Tunisia's new state institutions, legitimacy, and the future of the political transition
- Author:
- Kais Saied and Intissar Fakir
- Publication Date:
- 05-2023
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Tunisian President Kais Saied has reformed the structure of the Tunisian government, creating worries that democracy is being eroded in the North African country. Amidst ongoing economic turmoil and a growing migration issue, many are wondering if it is still possible to preserve democracy in Tunisia. Intissar Fakir, Director of MEI's North Africa & Sahel program, is joined by Chiraz Arbi and Lilia Blaise to discuss the current political situation and what the future may look like for Tunisia.
- Topic:
- Migration, Politics, Economy, Legitimacy, and Institutions
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia
30. Europe is Stuck Over the Israel-Hamas War
- Author:
- Maria Luisa Fantappiè and Nathalie Tocci
- Publication Date:
- 11-2023
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Since the horrific attack launched by Hamas on Israeli citizens on 7 October and the brutal ongoing Israeli military response, European governments and publics have rallied behind two diametrically opposite worldviews: unconditional support for Israel’s right to self-defence versus solidarity with Palestinians massacred by Israel’s military operation in Gaza. Europe should work proactively to chart its way in this inflammatory debate, rather than passively buying into the polarising narratives from Israeli and Arab public debates and allowing these to sow divisions, paralyse action, hamper credibility and poison democracies.
- Topic:
- Politics, European Union, Hamas, Narrative, and October 7
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza
31. Consistent Partiality: US Foreign Policy on Palestine-Israel
- Author:
- Sarah Whitson and Peter Beinart
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
- Abstract:
- Although the Biden administration talks about supporting democracy and human rights, it has maintained unconditional US support for Israel even as human rights organizations label it an apartheid state. What are the political and ideological foundations of America’s hostility to Palestinian freedom? And what would it take to change them? Does the US’s unconditional support for Israel serve America’s national interests? Join the Center for Security, Race and Rights as we address these questions with two internationally known experts.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Apartheid, Human Rights, Politics, Democracy, Ideology, and Strategic Interests
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North America, and United States of America
32. Political Change and Turkey’s Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Alper Coşkun and Sinan Ülgen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
- Abstract:
- Turkey is heading toward a set of twin elections that could have momentous consequences for the country’s future. In June 2023 at the latest, Turkish voters will be asked to choose a new president and a new parliamentary majority. For the past two decades, the Turkish political landscape has been dominated by the Justice and Development (AK) Party and its uniquely successful leader, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. After having ruled the country single-handedly since 2002, Erdoğan became the first executive president of Turkey in 2018, following a tightly contested constitutional change. He has come out victorious in every round of elections since the start of his political career. And yet, after two decades, his popularity is faltering, raising the prospect of political change. The turning point for Turkey’s political system has been the transition to a presidential system with the constitutional amendment of 2017.1 Since the start of multiparty elections in 1946, Turkey had had a parliamentary system, and since 2002 it has had single-party governments. With Erdoğan at the helm, the AK Party has won nearly all elections over the past two decades. It only failed to win a parliamentary majority in the most recent elections,2 in June 2018, and since then has been forced to rely on the support of the hyper-nationalist Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) to secure control of the legislature.3 Alper Coşkun Alper Coşkun is a senior fellow in the Europe Program and leads the Türkiye and the World Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC. @IACOSKUN The transition to the presidential system forced a realignment of the political constellation. The structural impact of this transition has led to the creation of two major political alliances. The Cumhur, or People’s, Alliance is led by the AK Party and includes the MHP and a small number of marginal parties. The Millet, or Nation, Alliance is led by the main opposition, the center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP); it also includes the center-right/nationalist İYİ Party as well as the Saadet and Demokrat parties, which appeal to a smaller electoral base. The first real test of this alliance-based politics was the municipal elections of March 2019, where the opposition alliance performed markedly better. Millet-backed opposition candidates won the electoral race in nine out of Turkey’s ten major metropolitan cities, including Ankara and Istanbul. These cities had been ruled by mayors linked to the AK Party and its predecessors since 1994. Now the alliances are gearing up to contest the critical 2023 elections. The ruling Cumhur Alliance’s candidate will be Erdoğan, who will try to win a third term as Turkey’s president. The candidate of the Millet Alliance is still unknown. Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, as the leader of the main opposition party, is intent on becoming the Millet candidate, but there are doubts about his electability against Erdoğan. Meral Akşener, the chairwoman of İYİ—the second-largest opposition party—has so far sidelined herself from the presidential race. Ekrem Imamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul, and Mansur Yavaş, the mayor of Ankara, are also possible presidential candidates for the opposition. At present, all four potential candidates for the opposition are polling better than Erdoğan—fueling speculation about political change.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Politics, Public Opinion, Elections, and Political Parties
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
33. Youth Politics and Activism in Turkey
- Author:
- Bahar Baser
- Publication Date:
- 11-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP)
- Abstract:
- Media outlets and polling companies have started publishing reports that claim the young people’s vote will be a game-changer in the upcoming elections. It is Generation Z, the so-called millennials, who are going to make a political statement with their vote in the Turkish elections. They constitute a sizeable portion of the eligible voters (20%) and around half of them will be casting their votes for the first time (RIS Report, 2022). Whether we are talking about Generation X, Y or Z, young people do not constitute a monolithic bloc in Turkey. The country is polarised along different ethnic, religious and ideological fault lines, and so is its youth. This is reflected in their activism, as well as their everyday lives. Turkish youth became an object of scrutiny for researchers during and after the Gezi protests and their repertoires of action and political participation were analysed by researchers both in and outside Turkey. However, new systematic studies are needed if the results the polling companies are receiving with regard to young people’s preferences and lifestyle choices in a changing Turkey are to be explained. Evidence shows that wooing youth support features on the parties’ political agendas. Strategies include investing in youth branches, organising events and festivals, as well as creating opportunities for young people, to keep them loyal to the party agendas. Do young people only express their frustration with the system through demonstrations on the streets or social media posts? No: young people are also leaving the country in protest. My recent research reveals that a sizeable group of young people tend to plan for futures outside Turkey, and that they would take any opportunity that presented itself abroad in order to leave the country permanently or temporarily.
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Youth, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Turkey and Middle East
34. Violence as A Form of Political Conduct: The Case of the Islamic State
- Author:
- Jülide Karakoç
- Publication Date:
- 07-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- AURUM Journal of Social Sciences
- Institution:
- Altinbas University
- Abstract:
- Following Hannah Arendt’s approach, which distinguishes power and violence and claims that violence appears when power is threatened or fails, this paper argues that the use of violence by Islamic State (IS) is a result of its inability to establish a stable power base in the Middle East. It argues, however, that violence has become a form of political conduct for this organisation, which challenges to Arendtian perspective rejecting any role violence plays in politics and has many repercussions in Middle Eastern societies and politics. This paper notes that local people feel hatred and rage against certain developments in the region, such as their countries’ colonial past, the Iraqi invasion and their failed administrations. Analysing how these reactions are directed in the form of violence by IS against some local groups, the paper examines further the regional consequences of the IS’ use of violence.
- Topic:
- Politics, Islamic State, Violence, and Hannah Arendt
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria
35. Civil Society & Political Transformations (Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy, Fall 2021)
- Author:
- Ghazi Ghazi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
- Institution:
- The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Eleven years after the 2011 Arab Spring, feelings of transformation and change still reverberate throughout the region. The Spring 2022 edition, Civil Society and Political Transformations, seeks to illuminate how civil society organizations operate in the region and their effects on political transformations.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Education, Human Rights, Migration, Politics, Race, History, Reform, Women, Constitution, Arab Spring, Syrian War, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Baath Party, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Libya, Yemen, Palestine, North Africa, Syria, Jordan, Morocco, and United Arab Emirates
36. Shifting Patterns of Arab Politics
- Author:
- Lisa Anderson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Cairo Review of Global Affairs
- Institution:
- School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, American University in Cairo
- Abstract:
- Over the last seventy-five years, the endlessly shifting coalitions on the chessboard of Arab regional politics seem to have played by the same rules of the game. Yet, as private interests have become a major source of political power, there have been major changes in the powers and purposes of the players
- Topic:
- Politics, Elections, Private Sector, Strategic Interests, and Public-Private Partnership
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Middle East
37. Iraq: Implementing a way forward
- Author:
- C. Anthony Pfaff, Ben Connable, and Masoud Mostajabi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- A new report, Iraq: Implementing a Way Forward, authored by Atlantic Council staff and fellows C. Anthony Pfaff, Ben Connable, and Masoud Mostajabi lays out findings and recommendations to assist the Iraqi government and its international partners in improving political, social, economic, and security conditions to enhance national stability, stabilize Iraq’s democratic processes, and promote broad-based, Iraqi-generated economic growth. The report draws on two years of engagement with experts from Iraq, the United States, and Europe through a US-Europe-Iraq Track II Dialogue convened from March 2020 through December 2021. Convened by the Atlantic Council’s Iraq Initiative and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung with support from DT Institute, the Dialogue consisted of a series of workshops to identify policies to help address Iraq’s political, socioeconomic, and security challenges. Dialogue participants included former and current high-level officials and experts, all of whom are committed to a better future for Iraq.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, Economy, Youth, Legitimacy, Identity, Foreign Assistance, and Resource Management
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
38. Deficiency and Elusion: Relations between Israel and Ukraine
- Author:
- Michał Wojnarowicz
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The outbreak of the war in Ukraine in 2014 broadened the political dimension of Israeli-Ukrainian relations. However, Israel’s cautious attitude towards Russia remains a burden for mutual relations with Ukraine. Since the renewed Russian aggression in February, Ukraine has diplomatically engaged Israel, but the limited nature of the latter’s support has led to criticism from Ukraine. The scale of the current assistance and pledged aid for the reconstruction of Ukraine, as well as Israel’s policy towards further tightening of sanctions against Russia, will be key to future relations.
- Topic:
- Diplomacy, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, and Israel
39. Lebanon after the Elections
- Author:
- Sara Nowacka
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Polish Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- Although the parliamentary elections on 15 May did not bring a breakthrough in the Lebanese political scene, the weakening of the dominant parties may facilitate reforms necessary to obtain foreign financial aid. The positive results for candidates related to the 2019 anti-government protests will mean a greater emphasis on the fight against corruption among the political elite. To avoid further instability in Lebanon, the EU could step up its support for that state’s institutions, including the Lebanese army, popular amongst the public.
- Topic:
- Corruption, Politics, Foreign Aid, Elections, Protests, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
40. Beyond Elections: Evolving Arab Public Opinion on Democracy and Human Rights
- Author:
- Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- U.S. efforts in the region stand a better chance of success if they consider rising demand for accountable governance, skepticism about democratic institutions, and various nation-specific trends. Against the backdrop of simmering protests, endemic economic challenges, the continuing struggle to contain the Covid-19 pandemic, and fallout from the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, The Washington Institute launched a series of policy papers to help guide the Biden administration’s approach on democracy, reform, human rights, and political change across the Middle East and North Africa. The series addresses a range of questions: How do changes in the region over the last decade affect the new administration’s approach to these issues? How should the administration best prepare for the “new normal” of protests in the region? What are the policy tools at America’s disposal, and how might they be improved upon? How can Washington turn much-needed attention to new areas of focus, such as corruption and public-sector reform? What does public opinion research tell us about what the region’s publics want in their countries—and from the United States? And where might enhanced U.S.-EU coordination play a constructive role? The proposed answers will assist policymakers in advancing opportunities for reform, preserving U.S. interests, and navigating Middle East realities in the context of America’s global priorities. In the fourth essay in the series—covering public opinion on democracy and human rights in Arab states—Catherine Cleveland and David Pollock note a cooling toward democratic institutions, a trend undoubtedly driven by failures in Tunisia, Lebanon, and Iraq. They discuss corresponding distrust in legislative bodies and high frustration with corrupt governance. Islamist leaders, they observe, come in for increasingly sharp critique. All in all, the findings emphasize a strong public demand for better governance outcomes and, in turn, the benefits as well as limits of U.S. democracy and human rights promotion in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, Islam, Politics, Public Opinion, Reform, and Democracy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and United States of America
41. Rhetoric Meets Reality in Jawlani’s Push for Self-Sufficiency
- Author:
- Aaron Y. Zelin
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- As a key UN vote approaches, Washington should push Turkey to help promote a diverse, balanced economy in HTS-controlled northwest Syria. On July 10, a United Nations vote will decide the future of the cross-border aid mechanism for northwest Syria, an area run by the jihadist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). The mechanism—which facilitates aid to northwest Syria via Turkey without having to go through Damascus—faces the prospect of nonrenewal for the first time since it was created in 2014, as a consequence of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. A failure to renew the mechanism would exacerbate an already daunting humanitarian situation in northwest Syria, where some three-fourths of the population consists of internally displaced persons (IDPs). While aid will likely continue on a far more limited basis if Russia vetoes the mechanism, from a U.S. perspective a more self-reliant HTS-run territory requiring less international assistance would actually be far preferable to a situation in which aid renewal remains subject to periodic dramas. Over the past roughly six years, HTS has transformed itself from an al-Qaeda branch into something resembling a typical regional state governing body, with the group engaging in human rights violations and embracing inflammatory rhetoric. To begin with, it has focused increasingly on developing local institutions and the economy. The group’s strides in governance have been facilitated, in part, by the March 2020 Turkey-Russia ceasefire agreement, which more or less froze the conflict line. Since then, HTS leader Abu Muhammad al-Jawlani has reiterated the value he places on self-sufficiency and constructing a new polity and society that does not rely on outside help. If HTS and its civilian-led Syrian Salvation Government (SSG) actually followed through on Jawlani’s ideas, locals could find other avenues to support themselves. Yet one must acknowledge at this point that HTS has not matched its lofty rhetoric with efforts to develop indigenous capabilities. Instead, it has worked hard to monopolize economic power.
- Topic:
- Politics, Terrorism, Reform, Democracy, and Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Syria, and United States of America
42. Iraq’s Constitutional Moment?
- Author:
- Safwan Al-Amin and Bilal Wahab
- Publication Date:
- 09-2022
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
- Abstract:
- Although the country currently lacks the unity and rule of law needed to safely pursue a process as fraught as amending the constitution, there are several alternatives that could get it on the path to systemic reform. Spurred by dysfunctional governance and political gridlock, Iraqis have increasingly been calling to amend the country’s constitution, with many arguing that the post-Saddam sectarian system failed to engender stability or prosperity and has therefore run its course. Even among more-hopeful observers, the democratic norms and minority rights put forth in the constitution remain aspirational at best. Accordingly, some political leaders are publicly signaling that they will heed such calls. Yet attempting to amend the constitution in the current political circumstances is not viable. Apart from the existing charter’s problematic technical deficiencies, Iraq remains mired in a profound lack of constitutionalism and respect for rule of law.
- Topic:
- Politics, Reform, Democracy, and Constitution
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
43. MEI-NAPI Roundtable on the Environment in Tunisia: A Youth Perspective On Challenges & Opportunities
- Author:
- Intissar Fakir, Fatine Ezbakhe, Marouen Taleb, Abir Ben Romdhane, and Mohamed Walid Jomni
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- The Middle East Institute (MEI) and the North African Policy Initiative (NAPI) are pleased to announce the sixth in a series of roundtable discussions inviting engaged youth to share their perspectives on the key issues facing their country’s future. This policy-oriented discussion will feature young Tunisian researchers offering their views on the current environmental challenges in their country and the opportunities ahead. Tunisia is already facing the reality of climate change. From the degradation of natural resources and water scarcity to desertification and coastal erosion, the country has to cope with complex and interconnected environmental challenges. While Tunisia has put the environment on top of its political and economic agenda (with Article 45 of its Constitution acknowledging the “right to a healthy and balanced environment and the right to participate in the protection of the climate”), there is still room to do more.
- Topic:
- Climate Change, Economics, Environment, Politics, Natural Resources, Water, and Desertification
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, North Africa, and Tunisia
44. Iraq's Political Shift
- Author:
- Randa Slim, Farhad Alaadin, and Marsin Alshamary
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Randa Slim is joined by Farhad Alaadin and Marsin Alshamary to discuss the latest political events in Iraqi Parliament, Muqtada al-Sadr, and what the future of Iraqi politics could look like moving forward.
- Topic:
- Politics, Domestic Politics, Muqtada al-Sadr, and Parliament
- Political Geography:
- Iraq and Middle East
45. Contending with Reality in Palestine & Israel
- Author:
- George Salem, Brian Katulis, and Khaled Elgindy
- Publication Date:
- 10-2022
- Content Type:
- Video
- Institution:
- Middle East Institute (MEI)
- Abstract:
- Today's two-part episode is a study in contrasts. On one hand, the Partnership for Peace Fund strives to create a social and economic environment in which sustainable peace can become possible. On the other, hard political realities and gridlock undermine cooperation at every turn. The episode begins by discussing peace-building efforts with George Salem, co-founder and Chairman of the Arab American Institute and Inaugural Chair of the Partnership for Peace Advisory Board. The discussion then turns to political realities and facts on the ground with Brian Katulis, Vice President of Policy at MEI, and Khaled Elgindy, Senior Fellow and Director of the Program on Palestine and Palestinian-Israeli Affairs.
- Topic:
- Politics, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, Peace, and Peacebuilding
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Israel, and Palestine
46. Palestinian Flags and Warm Embraces: Politics and Arabism at the World Cup in Qatar
- Author:
- Francesco Belcastro
- Publication Date:
- 12-2022
- Content Type:
- Commentary and Analysis
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The 2022 men’s football World Cup ended with Argentina’s victory over France, in what has already been dubbed by some fans as ‘the best final in world cup history’. While observers have praised the quality of football on display, the political dimension of the event has been a constant theme throughout the tournament. Arabism and solidarity with Palestine[1] have certainly been one of the key political aspects of the World Cup. But are the different expressions of Arab solidarity we have witnessed spontaneous and popular – in other words, do they reflect a strong popular feeling among Arab supporters, players and, in some cases, even leaders? Or are they limited manifestations of Arab identity and solidarity allowed within a controlled environment, or even worst, orchestrated events?
- Topic:
- Politics, Sports, Solidarity, World Cup, and Identity
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Palestine, Morocco, and Qatar
47. Labor and Politics in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Dina Bishara, Ian Hartshorn, Marc Lynch, Samar Abdelmageed, and Ashley Anderson
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- Economic grievances were at the heart of the Arab uprisings which erupted a decade ago. The centrality of those grievances and the workers articulating them has led to a growing research community focused on organized labor in the Middle East and North Africa. In April 2021, Dina Bishara and Ian Hartshorn convened a virtual workshop through Cornell University’s School of Industrial and Labor Relations bringing together a wide range of scholars writing in the area. POMEPS then invited those participants, as well as others who had not presented papers, to participate in a follow-on workshop to continue the discussion in September 2021. The papers in this collection are one of the fruits of this increasingly robust scholarly network.
- Topic:
- Economics, Politics, Labor Issues, Employment, Regulation, Arab Spring, Youth, Protests, Unions, Higher Education, COVID-19, Gulf Cooperation Council, and Activism
- Political Geography:
- Turkey, Middle East, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, North Africa, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, and Gulf Nations
48. Environmental Politics in the Middle East and North Africa
- Author:
- Jeannie Sowers, Marc Lynch, Taraf Abu Hamdan, Ekin Kurtiç, and Kali Rubaii
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- In February 2022, POMEPS convened a virtual workshop bringing together interdisciplinary contributions from anthropology, public health, political science, history, and human geography. Their geographic scope includes Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, Iraq, Turkey, Kuwait, and other Gulf countries. The papers grapple with the complexity and diversity of environmental politics and issues across the Middle East. In doing so, they contribute to important trends that have emerged in international and comparative environmental politics more broadly. Many of the papers highlight the importance of field-based research in producing insightful analyses, and all raise important and innovative questions that should inform future research in this area.
- Topic:
- Environment, Politics, History, Political Science, Anthropology, Public Health, and Human Geography
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Kuwait, North Africa, Lebanon, Jordan, Morocco, and Gulf Nations
49. COVID-19 in the MENA: Two Years On
- Author:
- Marc Lynch, Vahid Abedini, Yasmina Abouzzohour, Meliha Benli Altunisik, and Mona Ali
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Research Paper
- Institution:
- Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
- Abstract:
- Early in the pandemic, POMEPS convened an online workshop with a diverse group of scholars working across the MENA region to discuss the initial impacts and to think through possible trajectories. That workshop resulted in POMEPS Studies 39, which included twenty-one essays ranging across the MENA region. Several major themes ran across those essays. We collectively expected regimes to securitize the pandemic, using the excuse of lockdowns to crack down on a protest wave that had reached multiple countries in 2019 and to further entrench authoritarian rule. We expected variation in state capacity to be a critical variable in terms of the ability of states to effectively respond to the pandemic. And several essays anticipated soft power international competition, as great powers used vaccine diplomacy to sway public attitudes their way. Two years on, how did those predictions hold up? In April 2022, POMEPS convened a follow-up workshop with some of the same scholars and a number of new contributors to assess how well those early projections panned out, and to assess the actual impacts of COVID on the region after two years. We are delighted to now publish the results of that workshop and ongoing conversations among a diverse group of scholars of the region.
- Topic:
- Civil Society, Health, Politics, Sectarianism, Authoritarianism, Economy, Solidarity, Soft Power, Violence, Public Health, Students, COVID-19, Securitization, Gender, and Regional Politics
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, North Africa, Lebanon, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, and United Arab Emirates
50. Hezbollah’s Political Challenges following the Elections in Lebanon
- Author:
- Orna Mizrahi
- Publication Date:
- 06-2022
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
- Abstract:
- Although the Hezbollah camp was weakened in last month’s Lebanese parliamentary elections, the opposition is weak and divided. Meantime, Hezbollah maintains its status and influence, seeking to play a significant role in the next government. Nasrallah, determined to retain the organization’s independent military power, continues to try to strengthen Hezbollah’s image as a responsible national actor whose main concern is to ease Lebanon’s plight – and defend Lebanon against Israel
- Topic:
- Politics, Governance, Elections, and Hezbollah
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon