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2. Syria: Ruling over Aleppo’s Ruins
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 05-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Aleppo was devastated by bombing and shelling during the Syrian war. It remains unsafe, with residents subject to shakedowns by the regime’s security forces and various militias. Damascus and its outside backers should curb this predation as a crucial first step toward the city’s recovery.
- Topic:
- Security, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Recovery
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
3. Saïed’s Tunisia: Promoting Dialogue and Fixing the Economy to Ease Tensions
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Political tensions fuelled by President Saïed’s power grab and subsequent policies risk sending a crisis-ridden Tunisia over the edge. Saïed should organise a national dialogue and return to a negotiated constitutional order. In response, international partners should offer new economic perspectives for the country.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Peace, Strategic Interests, and Dialogue
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Tunisia
4. The Iran Nuclear Deal at Six: Now or Never
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2022
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After all is said and done, the Iran nuclear deal struck in 2015 remains the best way to achieve the West’s non-proliferation goals and the sanctions relief that Tehran seeks. The parties must not squander what is likely their last chance to save the accord.
- Topic:
- Security, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Nuclear Power, and JCPOA
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, North America, and United States of America
5. A Fight by Other Means: Keeping the Peace with Colombia’s FARC
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Colombia’s 2016 peace deal was a landmark achievement, convincing the FARC guerrillas to disarm and enter civilian life. Yet much remains to be done to show insurgents that they can redress their grievances through ordinary politics. The country’s leaders should recommit to finishing the job.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
6. Overkill: Reforming the Legal Basis for the U.S. War on Terror
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- After the 9/11 attacks, the U.S. Congress passed a use of force authorisation that successive presidents have used to expand military action ever further. As part of our series The Legacy of 9/11 and the “War on Terror”, we argue that Washington should enact a new statute that promotes transparency and narrows the war’s scope
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Counter-terrorism, and War on Terror
- Political Geography:
- North America and United States of America
7. A Time for Talks: Toward Dialogue between the Gulf Arab States and Ira
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Gulf Arab states have perceived threats from Iran since the 1979 revolution. Frictions have lessened of late, offering an important opportunity. Riyadh and Abu Dhabi should keep engaging Tehran with an eye to initiating the broadest possible talks on regional peace and security.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Gulf Nations
8. Iran: The Riddle of Raisi
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 08-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Iran has a new president, consolidating the hardliners’ control over the centres of power. What will he do about the country’s numerous crises? One answer is clear: the 2015 nuclear deal’s fate remains the most pressing issue for Tehran and its foreign interlocutors.
- Topic:
- Security, Governance, Leadership, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Iran and Middle East
9. How to Spend It: New EU Funding for African Peace and Security
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 01-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- New financial structures will soon allow the EU to fund African military operations – including the supply of lethal weaponry – directly, instead of through the African Union. To avoid aggravating conflicts, Brussels should undertake robust risk assessments, constantly monitor its assistance, insist that recipient countries subordinate military efforts to political strategies and preserve African Union oversight.
- Topic:
- Security, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, European Union, Peace, and Africa Union
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Europe
10. Managing Lebanon’s Compounding Crises
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Lebanon is suffering economic meltdown while its politicians dither. Reform – and fiscal relief – is unlikely before 2022 elections. While pushing for timely polls, international partners should send humanitarian assistance to ease the public’s pain, keep key infrastructure running and avert security breakdowns.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, Infrastructure, Reform, and Fiscal Policy
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Lebanon
11. A Fight by Other Means: Keeping the Peace with Colombia’s FARC
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2021
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Colombia’s 2016 peace deal was a landmark achievement, convincing the FARC guerrillas to disarm and enter civilian life. Yet much remains to be done to show insurgents that they can redress their grievances through ordinary politics. The country’s leaders should recommit to finishing the job.
- Topic:
- Security, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Peace
- Political Geography:
- Colombia and South America
12. How to Shield Education from Al-Shabaab in Kenya’s North East
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 07-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- What’s new? Jihadists have repeatedly attacked schools in north-eastern Kenya in the last eighteen months. In response, the government has shuttered many schools and pulled most teachers out of a long-neglected region that is one of Al-Shabaab’s main recruiting centres outside Somalia. Why does it matter? The education crisis adds to an already existing sense of marginalisation in north-eastern Kenya. Thousands of out-of-school youngsters could constitute an attractive pool of recruits for Al-Shabaab, which is engaged in a long-term campaign to deepen its foothold in the region. What should be done? The Kenyan government should afford the north east’s residents, including police reservists, a greater role in tackling militancy and revive community-centred efforts that to some degree succeeded in rolling back Al-Shabaab in the past. It should also restore learning by providing stopgap funding so local administrations can hire replacement teachers.
- Topic:
- Security, Education, Violence, Islamism, and Al Shabaab
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
13. Iraq: Fixing Security in Kirkuk
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 06-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Federal forces now patrol Kirkuk, the diverse, oil-rich province disputed between the central and Kurdish regional governments. The arrangement is unsettling communal relations, with Kurds feeling excluded. With outside help, Baghdad and Erbil should design a joint security mechanism including a locally recruited multi-ethnic unit. What’s new? In October 2017, the Iraqi army restored central government control over the disputed Kirkuk governorate and its oil fields in the country’s north. Since then, multiple federal forces including paramilitaries have policed the area. The new arrangement reassured the province’s Arabs and Turkmen but left local Kurds feeling abandoned. Why did it happen? The federal government’s move into Kirkuk was triggered by a Kurdish independence referendum staged the previous month, which raised Baghdad’s concerns that the Kurdistan Regional Government in Erbil would declare Kurdish statehood and annex Kirkuk, other disputed territories and their petroleum riches. Why does it matter? Finding an equilibrium that satisfies Kirkuk’s three main ethnic groups by ensuring that none dominates the security apparatus at the others’ expense is a fundamental condition for the area’s stability. Only such a configuration will ensure peaceful coexistence and help prevent a resurgence of the Islamic State. What should be done? With international support, Baghdad and Erbil should establish joint security management in Kirkuk that includes a locally recruited multi-ethnic force under federal command. This arrangement would help protect the area from renewed insurgency, contribute to intercommunal peace and lay the foundations for an eventual settlement of Kirkuk’s status in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Security, Oil, and Kurds
- Political Geography:
- Iraq, Middle East, and Kirkuk
14. The Middle East between Collective Security and Collective Breakdown
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 04-2020
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- For years, Gulf powers have mulled the notion of regional dialogue to calm existing crises and head off new ones. Today, with several active Middle Eastern conflicts, all sensitive to rising U.S.-Iran tensions, it is an idea whose time has come. What’s new?* Middle East tensions spiked in the past year following attacks on oil tankers and Saudi oil facilities, the U.S. killing of a senior Iranian commander and Iranian military retaliation. Some of Washington’s allies, losing confidence the U.S. will reliably extend military protection, have started making cautious diplomatic overtures to Iran. Why does it matter? While these tentative steps toward de-escalation are welcome, they risk being inadequate, particularly in the absence of regular, high-level communication channels among potential conflict actors. Existing UN-led mechanisms for resolving individual conflicts, such as Yemen, are worthwhile but insufficient to lessen region-wide tensions. What should be done? Diplomatic efforts are needed to both de-escalate tensions and make progress toward resolving regional conflicts. Gulf actors, supported by external stakeholders, should consider launching an inclusive sub-regional dialogue aimed at reducing the risk of inadvertent conflict by opening new communication channels.
- Topic:
- Security, Diplomacy, Regional Cooperation, and Crisis Management
- Political Geography:
- Iran, Middle East, United States of America, and Gulf Nations
15. A Sustainable Policy for Rohingya Refugees in Bangladesh
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 12-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Bangladesh is hosting nearly a million Rohingya refugees who have little hope of going home any time soon. The government should move to improve camp living conditions, in particular by lifting the education ban and fighting crime. Donors should support such steps. What’s new? Two years after atrocities in Myanmar’s Rakhine State drove a wave of Rohingya refugees into Bangladesh, prospects for repatriation remain dim. Frustrated Bangladeshi authorities refuse to plan for the long term, have introduced stringent security measures at refugee camps, and may move some refugees to a remote island, Bhasan Char. Why did it happen? The Bangladeshi government is struggling with growing security challenges near the refugee camps and domestic political pressure to resolve the crisis. It is also irritated by the lack of progress in repatriating any of the estimated one million Rohingya refugees on its soil. Why does it matter? Dhaka’s restrictions on aid activities prohibit its partners from building safe housing in the Rohingya camps or developing programs that cultivate refugee self-reliance. Combined with heavy-handed security measures, this approach risks alienating refugees and setting the stage for greater insecurity and conflict in southern Bangladesh. What should be done? While pressing for eventual repatriation, Bangladesh and external partners should move past short-term planning and work together to build safe housing, improve refugees’ educational and livelihood opportunities, and support refugee-hosting communities. Dhaka should also roll back its counterproductive security measures and plans for relocations to Bhasan Char.
- Topic:
- Security, Minorities, Refugees, Ethnic Cleansing, and Rohingya
- Political Geography:
- Bangladesh, Asia, and Southeast Asia
16. Women and Children First: Repatriating the Westerners Affiliated with ISIS
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 11-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Tens of thousands of foreign men, women and children affiliated with ISIS are detained in northeast Syria. The camps where they are held pose a formidable security and humanitarian challenge to the region. Western governments should, at minimum, accelerate the repatriation of women and children. What’s new? Alongside the thousands of foreign fighters detained in north east Syria are thousands of non-Syrian children and women. Western governments have for months publicly wrestled with political and policy qualms about repatriating their nationals. Turkey’s incursion into Syria highlights that the window for repatriation or transfer could close suddenly. Why does it matter? The long-term detention of these men, women and children in north east Syria has always been deeply problematic for security and humanitarian reasons. The Turkish incursion and shifting balance of power in the region makes the security of the camps where they are held more precarious. What should be done? As a first step toward addressing this challenge, Western governments should accelerate repatriation of their national children and women. They should recognise the diversity of women’s backgrounds and repatriate those who are unthreatening. They should also pour substantial diplomatic and financial resources into developing responsible options for the remaining population.
- Topic:
- Security, Terrorism, Law Enforcement, Islamic State, and Humanitarian Crisis
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
17. Intra-Gulf Competition in Africa’s Horn: Lessening the Impact
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 09-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Gulf states are competing for influence in the Horn of Africa to control the Red Sea, transposing internal rivalries onto a fragile region. Horn governments should increase their bargaining power with their powerful neighbours, who should recognise the risks their policies pose to regional security. What’s new? Middle Eastern states are accelerating their competition for allies, influence and physical presence in the Red Sea corridor, including in the Horn of Africa. Rival Gulf powers in particular are jockeying to set the terms of a new regional power balance and benefit from future economic growth. Why did it happen? Regional instability, a relative power vacuum and competition among rising Middle East states have prompted Gulf countries to seek to project their power outward into the neighbourhood. They are looking at the Horn of Africa to consolidate alliances and influence. Why does it matter? Many new Gulf-Horn relationships are highly asymmetrical, driven more by Gulf than African interests. Gulf states are injecting resources and exporting rivalries in ways that could further destabilise fragile local politics. Yet they also carry the potential to resolve conflict and fuel economic growth. What should be done? Horn and Western policymakers should seek to limit intra-Gulf sparring in Africa, notably by expanding the role of regional multilateral organisations to boost Horn states’ bargaining power. Gulf rivals must become convinced – by their allies or their own experience – that their actions are undermining long-term security across the Red Sea basin.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Regional Cooperation, Political stability, and Strategic Competition
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Gulf Nations, and Horn of Africa
18. Fight and Flight: Tackling the Roots of Honduras’ Emergency
- Author:
- International Crisis Group
- Publication Date:
- 10-2019
- Content Type:
- Special Report
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Despite U.S. restrictions on Central American migration, Hondurans are fleeing north in record numbers as the country struggles with polarised government, corruption, poverty and violence. With outside help, Tegucigalpa should revisit its heavy-handed security policies and enact judicial and electoral reforms to avert future upheaval. What happened? Months of street protests and a mass northward exodus, despite a sustained U.S. campaign to deter Central American migrants, illustrate the depth of despair in Honduras at political leaders, gang violence, extortion, poverty and inequality. Why does it matter? State security crackdowns against a backdrop of extreme political polarisation dating back to the 2009 coup, fuelled by scandals over alleged links between the ruling party and criminal networks, could further fuel violent unrest. Washington’s fixation on bottling up migrant flows in the region risks making a bad situation worse. What should be done? With support from the U.S. and other donors, the Honduran government should enact electoral and anti-corruption reforms and grant stronger investigative powers to the judiciary and police, avoid heavy-handed responses to civil unrest, and fund programs that address urgent humanitarian needs while also reducing violence, a key driver of migration.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, Migration, and Immigration
- Political Geography:
- Central America, Honduras, and United States of America
19. Curbing Violence in Nigeria (III): Revisiting the Niger Delta
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Violence in the Niger Delta may soon increase unless the Nigerian government acts quickly and decisively to address long-simmering grievances. With the costly Presidential Amnesty Program for ex-insurgents due to end in a few months, there are increasingly bitter complaints in the region that chronic poverty and catastrophic oil pollution, which fuelled the earlier rebellion, remain largely unaddressed. Since Goodluck Jonathan, the first president from the Delta, lost re-election in March, some activists have resumed agitation for greater resource control and self-determination, and a number of ex-militant leaders are threatening to resume fighting (“return to the creeks”). While the Boko Haram insurgency in the North East is the paramount security challenge, President Muhammadu Buhari rightly identifies the Delta as a priority. He needs to act firmly but carefully to wind down the amnesty program gradually, revamp development and environmental programs, facilitate passage of the long-stalled Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) and improve security and rule of law across the region.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Development, Environment, Oil, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
20. Kyrgyzstan: An Uncertain Trajectory
- Publication Date:
- 09-2015
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Kyrgyzstan, Central Asia’s only even nominal parliamentary democracy, faces growing internal and external security challenges. Deep ethnic tensions, increased radicalisation in the region, uncertainty in Afghanistan and the possibility of a chaotic political succession in Uzbekistan are all likely to have serious repercussions for its stability. The risks are exacerbated by leadership failure to address major economic and political problems, including corruption and excessive Kyrgyz nationalism. Poverty is high, social services are in decline, and the economy depends on remittances from labour migrants. Few expect the 4 October parliamentary elections to deliver a reformist government. If the violent upheavals to which the state is vulnerable come to pass, instability could spread to regional neighbours, each of which has its own serious internal problems. The broader international community – not just the European Union (EU) and the U.S., but also Russia and China, should recognise the danger and proactively press the government to address the country’s domestic issues with a sense of urgency.
- Topic:
- Security, Politics, Governance, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Asia and Kyrgyzstan
21. Mali :réformer ou rechuter
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Un an après l'intervention française, l'intégrité territoriale et l'ordre constitutionnel ont été rétablis au Mali. Mais la persistance des tensions intercommunautaires et de violences localisées témoigne d'une stabilisation encore précaire du Nord, alors que les forces françaises et onusiennes peinent à consolider leurs progrès en matière de sécurité. Les attentes à l'égard du président Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta sont immenses. Il doit à la fois élaborer un compromis sur le devenir du Nord et engager la réforme d'un Etat affaibli par la crise. Son gouvernement doit aller au-delà des déclarations d'intention et passer à l'action. Pour consolider la situation à court terme, il est tenté de renouer avec un système clientéliste qui a conduit les précédents régimes dans l'impasse. Le président ne peut certes pas tout réformer brusquement mais l'urgence de la stabilisation ne doit ni faire manquer l'occasion d'entamer une réforme profonde de la gouvernance ni occulter la nécessité d'un dialogue véritablement inclusif sur l'avenir du pays.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Islam, Post Colonialism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Africa
22. Sudan's Spreading Conf lict (III): The Limits of Darfur's Peace Process
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The violence in Darfur's decade-old war spiked in 2013, as the mostly Arab militias initially armed by the government to contain the rebellion increasingly escaped Khartoum's control and fought each other. Recent fighting has displaced nearly half a million additional civilians – in all 3.2 million Darfurians need humanitarian help. The Doha Document for Peace in Darfur (DDPD) signed in Qatar in 2011 is largely unimplemented, notably because it was endorsed by factions with limited political and military influence, blocked by the government and suffered fading international support. The main insurgent groups remain active, have formed an alliance that goes beyond the region and increasingly assert a national agenda. If Darfur is to have durable peace, all parties to the country's multiple conflicts, supported by the international community, need to develop a more coherent means of addressing, in parallel, both local conflicts and nationwide stresses, the latter through a comprehensive national dialogue; eschew piecemeal approaches; embrace inclusive talks; and recommit to Sudan's unity.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Civil War, Islam, War, Armed Struggle, Insurgency, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Africa
23. Too Far, Too Fast: Sochi, Tourism and Conflict in the Caucasus
- Publication Date:
- 01-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Russia has invested extensive resources and prestige in the Winter Olympics to be held in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, 7-23 February 2014. The tab, an estimated $51 billion, does not include a nationwide security operation to protect the venue against attack by a resilient and ruthless armed jihadi movement. A spate of bombings, including two in December in the southern city of Volgograd, show that North Caucasus Islamist terrorists are determined to strike opportunistically across the country to mar the games and challenge President Vladimir Putin, who has promised a "safe, enjoyable and memorable" Olympic experience. If ripple effects of security for Sochi and the ambitious regional tourism project the games are meant to inaugurate are not to worsen the situation in the war-to rn North Caucasus, local communities must be assured they will benefit from the development plans, not fall victims to rapacious local elites or the abuses allegedly accompanying the Games. Equally important, they will need guaranteed long-term security, not simply oppressive security regimes.
- Topic:
- Security, Islam, International Affairs, Insurgency, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Russia, Caucasus, and Sochi
24. Afrique centrale : les défis sécuritaires du pastoralisme
- Publication Date:
- 04-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- La pénétration du pastoralisme qui s'accentue depuis plusieurs années en Afrique centrale génère des conflits à la fois fréquents et ignorés dans un monde rural où l'empreinte de l'Etat est particulièrement faible. Ces conflits s'intensifient sous l'effet conjugué de plusieurs facteurs: l'insécurité croissante, le changement climatique qui pousse les pasteurs toujours plus au sud, l'éclatement des couloirs traditionnels de transhumance, notamment transfrontaliers, l'extension des cultures et l'augmentation des cheptels qui entrainent une compétition accrue sur les ressources naturelles. Même si les défis sécuritaires du pastoralisme ne sont pas de même intensité dans les trois pays étudiés dans ce rapport (Tchad, République centrafricaine et République démocratique du Congo), ils ont deux dénominateurs communs : l'impératif d'une prise en compte de ce problème par les pouvoirs publics et la nécessité d'une régulation de la transhumance qui inclue les différents acteurs concernés.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Agriculture, Climate Change, Natural Resources, and Infrastructure
- Political Geography:
- Africa
25. Flight of Icarus? The PYD's Precarious Rise in Syria
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- With the Syrian regime and opposition locked in a see-saw battle, Kurdish forces have consolidated control over large portions of the country's north. Their principal players, the Democratic Union Party (Partiya Yekîtiya Demokrat, PYD) and its armed wing, the People's Protection Units (Yekîneyên Parastina Gel, YPG), now dominate three large, non-contiguous enclaves of Kurdish-majority territory along the Turkish border, over which the PYD proclaimed in November 2013 the transitional administration of Rojava (Western Kurdistan). Kurdish governance is unprecedented in Syria and for the PYD, an offshoot of the Turkish Kurdish insurgent movement PKK, from which it draws ideological, organisational and military support. But it is unclear whether this is a first step toward stability and the Kurdish aspiration for national recognition, or merely a respite while the civil war focuses elsewhere. The PYD alone will not determine the fate of Syria's north, but it could greatly increase its chances by broadening its popular appeal and cooperating with other local forces.
- Topic:
- Security, Ethnic Conflict, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Middle East and Syria
26. A Cosmetic End to Madagascar's Crisis?
- Publication Date:
- 05-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Madagascar is on the cusp of exiting a five-year political crisis compounded by economic disorder and international isolation. Presidential elections in late 2013 were endorsed as credible following the victory of Hery Rajaonarimampianina. The return to democracy paves the way for renewed international support. However, division entrenched by former President Marc Ravalomanana's exile has polarised the country. The coup regime of Andry Rajoelina was characterised by socio-economic malaise, rampant corruption, institutional decay and the breakdown in the rule of law. The political system, which is the primary obstacle to sustained recovery, needs much more than a cosmetic makeover; fundamental reform is necessary. The African Union, Southern African Development Community and International Support Group for Madagascar must support Rajaonarimampianina's efforts to balance political interests in a marked departure from the traditional winner-take-all approach; reform and strengthening of key democratic institutions; and reform and professionalisation of the security sector.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- Africa, South Africa, and Tamil Nadu
27. Kenya: Al-Shabaab – Closer to Home
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- One year after the Westgate Mall terrorist attack in Nairobi, Al–Shabaab is more entrenched and a graver threat to Kenya. But the deeper danger is less in the long established terrorist cells that perpetrated the act–horrific as it was–and more in managing and healing the rising communal tensions and historic divides that Al- Shabaab violence has deliberately agitated, most recently in Lamu county. To prevent extremists from further articulating local grievances with global jihad, the Kenyan government–including county governments most affected-opposition politicians and Kenyan Muslim leaders, must work together to address historical grievances of marginalisation among Muslim communities in Nairobi, the coast and the north east, and institutional discrimination at a national level, as well as ensuring that counter-terrorism operations are better targeted at the perpetrators and do not persecute wider ethnic and faith communities they have purposefully infiltrated.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- Kenya
28. Venezuela: Dangerous Inertia
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The streets of Venezuela's major cities are now largely calm, following several months of violent clashes between opposition demonstrators, security forces and civilian gun- men that left more than 40 dead. The crisis, however, is not over. The opposition is demanding freedom for several dozen activists jailed during the unrest and an end to the threat of prosecution against more than 2,000. The underlying causes have not been addressed, and calls to restore autonomy and independence to the justice system and other key institutions have not been heeded. Living standards continue to decline due to economic recession; violent crime remains at record levels, and labour unrest and protests over poor-quality public services are often dealt with harshly. Greater international efforts are required to bring the sides back to the negotiating table, since the alternative to dialogue is likely to be further violence sooner or later.
- Topic:
- Security, Economics, and Sociology
- Political Geography:
- Venezuela
29. Nigeria's Dangerous 2015 Elections: Limiting the Violence
- Publication Date:
- 11-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Nigeria's presidential, parliamentary and state gubernatorial and assembly elections, scheduled for February 2015, will be more contentious than usual. Tensions within and between the two major political parties, competing claims to the presidency between northern and Niger Delta politicians and along religious lines, the grim radical Islamist Boko Haram insurgency and increasing communal violence in several northern states, along with inadequate preparations by the electoral commission and apparent bias by security agencies, suggest the country is heading toward a very volatile and vicious electoral contest. If this violent trend continues, and particularly if the vote is close, marred or followed by widespread violence, it would deepen Nigeria's already grave security and governance crises. The government, its agencies and all other national figures must work urgently to ensure that the vote is not conducted in an explosive situation as this could further destabilise the country.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Ethnic Government, Governance, Sectarian violence, and Self Determination
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Nigeria
30. Somalia: Al-Shabaab - It Will Be a Long War
- Publication Date:
- 06-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Despite the recent military surge against Somalia's armed Islamist extremist and self-declared al-Qaeda affiliate, Al-Shabaab, its conclusive "defeat" remains elusive. The most likely scenario – already in evidence – is that its armed units will retreat to smaller, remote and rural enclaves, exploiting entrenched and ever-changing clan-based competition; at the same time, other groups of radicalised and well-trained individuals will continue to carry out assassinations and terrorist attacks in urban areas, including increasingly in neighbouring countries, especially Kenya. The long connection between Al-Shabaab's current leadership and al-Qaeda is likely to strengthen. A critical breakthrough in the fight against the group cannot, therefore, be achieved by force of arms, even less so when it is foreign militaries, not the Somalia National Army (SNA), that are in the lead. A more politically-focused approach is required.
- Topic:
- Security, Islam, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
31. Risks of Intelligence Pathologies in South Korea
- Publication Date:
- 08-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- A failure of intelligence on the Korean peninsula-the site of the world's highest concentration of military personnel with a history of fraught, sometimes violent, sabre-rattling-could have catastrophic consequences. Yet the South Korean intelligence community has revealed its susceptibility to three types of pathologies-intelligence failure, the politicisation of intelligence, and intervention in domestic politics by intelligence agencies-which bring into stark relief the potential for grievous miscalculation and policy distortions when addressing the threat from North Korea. Moves by intelligence agencies to recover or bolster their reputations by compromising sensitive information have compounded the problem. Efforts are needed to reform the South's intelligence capacities, principally by depoliticising its agencies and ensuring adequate legislative and judicial oversight. Lawmakers and bureaucrats also need to fulfil their responsibilities to protect classified information and refrain from leaking sensitive intelligence for short-term personal political gains.
- Topic:
- Security, Defense Policy, Intelligence, and Science and Technology
- Political Geography:
- Asia, South Korea, and Sinai Peninsula
32. Niger: un autre maillon faible dans le Sahel?
- Publication Date:
- 09-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Le double attentat du 23 mai 2013 qui a visé la caserne d'Agadez et une usine du groupe Areva à Arlit, suivi le 1er juin d'une évasion violente à la prison de Niamey, posent avec une acuité nouvelle la question de la stabilité du Niger. Face à un envi- ronnement régional dégradé, le président Mahamadou Issoufou et ses alliés occiden- taux ont jusqu'ici privilégié une réponse sécu ritaire. Comme ailleurs au Sahel, cette stratégie présente d'importantes limites. La focalisation excessive sur les menaces externes risque d'éclipser des dynamiques internes importantes comme les tensions communautaires, le déficit démocratique ou la marginalisation croissante de socié- tés rurales appauvries. Les arbitrages financ iers en faveur des dépenses sécuritaires risquent de se faire au détriment d'investissements sociaux pourtant indispensables dans un pays confronté à d'importants défis démographiques et économiques. La menace de la contagion terroriste depuis les pays voisins existe mais elle n'est réel- lement préoccupante au Niger que parce qu'elle gagnerait un corps social particuliè- rement affaibli dans un contexte politique lui-même fragilisé.
- Topic:
- Security, Demographics, Economics, Islam, Oil, and Insurgency
33. Centrafrique : l'intervention de la dernière chance
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Durant les neuf derniers mois, ce qui restait de l'Etat centrafricain s'est effondré avec de graves conséquences humanitaires (400 000 personnes sont déplacées et presque la moitié de la population a besoin d'aide humanitaire). Le gouvernement de transition et la force de sécurité régionale ont été incapables de freiner la chute dans l'anarchie aussi bien en zone rurale qu'en zone urbaine et notamment à Bangui. Après plusieurs mois de passivité et à la suite de tueries, la communauté internationale a pris conscience des conséquences de la faillite de la RCA. Malheureusement, la détérioration de la situation est bien plus rapide que la mobilisation internationale et Bangui est au bord de l'explosion. Dans l'immédiat, le Conseil de sécurité devrait fournir un mandat sous chapitre 7 à la Mission internationale de soutien à la Centrafrique sous conduite africaine (Misca) épaulée par les forces françaises pour rétablir l'ordre dans Bangui dans un premier temps puis se déployer dans d'autres villes. Par la suite, la réconciliation religieuse devrait être privilégiée et des mesures de stabilisation devraient être appliquées.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Development, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Peace Studies, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Africa
34. Fire on the City Gate: Why China Keeps North Korea Close
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- China tolerates the nuclear ambitions of North Korea (the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, DPRK) for now because its interests in the neighbourhood are much wider and more complex than this single issue. Beijing and the West often work toward their shared goal of a nuclear-free Korean peninsula with contradictory approaches that reflect their different priorities. The West uses diplomatic isolation, economic sanctions and extended deterrence to pressure Pyongyang to give up its nuclear program. Many Western policymakers believe the DPRK will denuclearise if sufficient costs are imposed and that Beijing holds the keys because the North is economically dependent on it. But China is reluctant to take any coercive action that might destabilise the regime and change a delicate geopolitical balance. It instead continues with diplomatic engagement and economic cooperation as the instruments it hopes will cause the leadership to denuclearise in the indeterminate future.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Weapons of Mass Destruction
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and North Korea
35. Somalia: Puntland's Punted Polls
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Puntland is the first of Somalia's federal units to attempt transition from clan-based representation to directly-elected government, but poor preparations and last-minute cancellation of local elections in July underline the challenges of reconciling competing clan interests with a democratic constitution. Cancellation pragmatically averted violence, but societal tensions remain unaddressed. The presidential vote by a clan-selected parliament in January 2014 will thus be fraught. Weak political and judicial institutions will struggle to mediate, risking involvement by partisan arms of the state. Direct elections are no panacea for reducing the conflict risks, but hard-won incremental progress on the constitution and local democratisation must not be abandoned. The cancelled ballot's lessons should be instructive for promised elections in the rest of Somalia. Better technical preparations matter, but Puntland's experience shows that donors and other international actors also need to be heedful of local political realities, including support of elites, robustness of institutions and viability of electoral districts.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Civil Society, Democratization, Development, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Africa and Somalia
36. Assessing Turkey's Role in Somalia
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Turkey is the newest country to intervene in Somalia and its involvement has produced some positive results. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's courageous visit to Mogadishu in August 2011 at the height of the famine and his decision to open an embassy gave fresh impetus to efforts to establish lasting peace. Widespread Somali gratitude for Turkish humanitarian endeavours and the country's status as a Muslim and democratic state established Turkey as a welcome partner. Ankara has signalled it is in for the long haul. However, it must tread prudently, eschew unilateralism and learn lessons to avoid another failed international intervention. Over twenty years, many states and entities have tried to bring relief and secure peace in Somalia, often leaving behind a situation messier than that which they found. Ankara must appreciate it alone cannot solve the country's many challenges, but must secure the support and cooperation of both the Somali people and international community. Trying to go solo could backfire, hamper ongoing efforts and lose the immense good-will it has accumulated.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Foreign Policy, Islam, Peace Studies, and Fragile/Failed State
- Political Geography:
- Africa, Central Asia, Turkey, and Somalia
37. Burundi: Bye-bye Arusha?
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- En dépit du fonctionnement régulier des institutions et du discours officiel vantant les progrès en matière de déve- loppement et de sécurité, le Burundi est en train de perdre les acquis de l'accord d'Arusha. En raison de l'impasse électorale de 2010, le système de partage du pouvoir conçu à Arusha a fait place à un monopartisme de fait qui se traduit par la fin du dialogu e entre l'opposition et le gouvernement, une dérive autorita ire et le retour de la vio- lence politique. Le respect de la minorité politique et de la règle de droit, essentiel à la démocratie, semble ignoré depuis 2010. Afin de pérenniser les acquis du processus de paix et la stabilité du pays, la classe politique burundaise doit renouer avec le dialogue, ga rantir le pluralisme poli- tique en vue des échéances électorales de 2015 et veiller à un processus de justice trans itionnelle consensuel. En rai- son de leur implication dans le processus de paix, l'importance de leur aide au Burundi et l'absence de bailleurs alternatifs, les partenaires internationaux actuels doivent mettre ces trois questions au centre de leur dialogue avec le gouvernement.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, Corruption, Democratization, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa
38. Côte d'Ivoire : faire baisser la pression
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- En Côte d'Ivoire, la sortie de crise est menacée par une situation sécuritaire volatile et des blocages politiques. Le dernier trimestre a été marqué par une série d'attaques meurtrières qui ont visé un commissariat de police, l'un des principaux camps militaires du pays, plusieurs posi- tions de l'armée et une centrale électrique. Ces incidents ont été précédés par d'autres violences à l'Ouest. Même si ces évènements ne constituent pas une menace immé- diate pour la stabilité, ils indiquent que, pour certains, la guerre n'est pas terminée. Lenteur de la réforme du sec- teur de la sécurité, gel du dialogue politique, fragilité de la coalition au pouvoir, ret our de la violence verbale, révélation de projets de coup d'Etat, doutes sur la réalité d'une volonté de réconciliation nationale, sont autant de signes préoccupants. Le présid ent Alassane Ouattara et son nouveau gouvernement formé le 22 novembre ne doivent pas compter exclusivement sur la relance économique et le verrouillage sécuritaire pour consolider la paix. La com- munauté internationale ne do it pas détourner son regard d'un pays dont la stabilisation est d'autant plus cruciale pour l'Afrique de l'Ouest que le Mali voisin a basculé dans une crise profonde et durable.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Poverty, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Africa
39. A Precarious Balancing Act: Lebanon and the Syrian Conflict
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Syria's conflict is leaking out of its borders, but in few places are risks higher than in Lebanon. This is not just a matter of history, although history bodes ill: the country seldom has been immune to the travails of its neighbour. It also is a function of recent events, of which the most dramatic was the 19 October assassination of top security official Wissam Hassan, an illustration of the country's fragility and the short-sight edness of politicians unwilling to address it. Lebanon's two principal coalitions see events in Syria in a starkly different light – as a dream come true for one; as a potentially apocalyptical night- mare for the other. It would be unrealistic to expect Lebanese actors to be passive in the face of what is unfolding next door. But it is imperative to shield the country as much as possible and resist efforts by third parties – whether allies or foes of Damascus – to drag the nation in a perilous direction. In the wake of Hassan's assassination, this almost certainly requires a new, more balanced government and commitments by local and regional actors not to use Lebanese soil as an arena in which to wage the Syrian struggle.
- Topic:
- Security, Political Violence, Regime Change, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, Lebanon, and Syria
40. Sri Lanka: Tamil Politics and the Quest for a Political Solution
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The Sri Lankan government’s refusal to negotiate seriously with Tamil leaders or otherwise address legitimate Tamil and Muslim grievances is increasing ethnic tensions and damaging prospects for lasting peace. The administration, led by the Sri Lanka Freedom Party of Mahinda Rajapaksa, has refused to honour agreements with the Tamil National Alliance (TNA), broke n promises to world leaders and not implemented constitutional provisions for minimal devolution of power to Tamil-speaking areas of the north and east. Militarisation and discriminatory economic development in Tamil and Muslim areas are breeding anger and increasing pressure on moderate Tamil leaders. Tamil political parties need to remain patient and keep to their moderate course, while reaching out more directly to Muslims, Upcountry Tamils and Sinhalese. International actors should press the government more effectively for speedy establishment of an elected provincial council and full restoration of civilian government in the north, while insisting that it commence serious negotiations with elected Tamil representatives from the north and east.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Democratization, Ethnic Conflict, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- South Asia and Sri Lanka
41. Kenyan Somali Islamist Radicalisation
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Somalia's growing Islamist radicalism is spilling over into Kenya. The militant Al-Shabaab movement has built a cross-border presence and a clandestine support network among Muslim populations in the north east and Nairobi and on the coast, and is trying to radicalise and recruit youth from these communities, often capitalising on long-standing grievances against the central state. This problem could grow more severe with the October 2011 decision by the Kenyan government to intervene directly in Somalia. Radicalisation is a grave threat to Kenya's security and stability. Formulating and executing sound counter-radicalisation and de-radicalisation policies before it is too late must be a priority. It would be a profound mistake, however, to view the challenge solely through a counter-terrorism lens.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Islam, Armed Struggle, and Insurgency
- Political Geography:
- Kenya and Africa
42. The Kenyan Military Intervention in Somalia
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The decision in October 2011 to deploy thousands of troops in Somalia's Juba Valley to wage war on Al-Shabaab is the biggest security gamble Kenya has taken since independence, a radical departure for a country that has never sent its soldiers abroad to fight. Operation Linda Nchi (Protect the Country) was given the go-ahead with what has shown itself to be inadequate political, diplomatic and military preparation; the potential for getting bogged down is high; the risks of an Al-Shabaab retaliatory terror campaign are real; and the prospects for a viable, extremist- free and stable polity emerging in the Juba Valley are slim. The government is unlikely to heed any calls for a troop pullout: it has invested too much, and pride is at stake. Financial and logistical pressures will ease once its force becomes part of the African Union (AU) mission in Somalia (AMISOM). But it should avoid prolonged “occupation” of southern Somalia, lest it turn local Somali opinion against the intervention and galvanise an armed resistance that could be co-opted by Al-Shabaab, much as happened to Ethiopia during its 2006-2009 intervention.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
- Political Geography:
- Kenya, Africa, and Somalia
43. Indonesia: The Deadly Cost of Poor Policing
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Indonesian communities are increasingly turning to violence to retaliate against the police for abuses, real or perceived. Some 40 attacks on police stations and personnel since August 2010 are clear evidence that community policing, the centrepoint of the police reform agenda, is not working; police are too quick to shoot, usually with live ammunition; and little progress has been made toward police accountability. In the absence of urgent reforms and mechanisms to address local grievances, public hostility is likely to grow. Police are supposed to be helping prevent conflict but too often they are contributing to its outbreak.
- Topic:
- Security, Human Rights, and Law Enforcement
- Political Geography:
- Indonesia and Southeast Asia
44. Lebanon's Palestinian Dilemma: The Struggle over Nahr al-Bared
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- 2012 marks the fifth anniversary of one of Lebanon' s bloodiest battles since the end of the civil war: the deadly, three - month war pitting a jihadi group against the army in the Nahr al - Bared Palestinian refugee camp. Since then, the camp ' s displaced and resident population has suffered from slow reconstruct ion of their residences, a heavy security presence that restricts their movement and livelihood as well as the absence of a legitimate Palestinian body to represent their interests. Today, there are bigger and more urgent fish to fry, none more so than dealing with the ripple effects of Syria ' s raging internal conflict on inter - sectarian relations in Lebanon and the risk that the country once again could plunge into civil war. But it would be wrong to toss the refugee camp question aside, for here too resides a potential future flare - up.
- Topic:
- Security, Civil Society, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Middle East, Arabia, and Syria
45. China's New Courtship in South Sudan
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- In the wake of Sudan's partition, Beijing has accelerated a re-orientation of its engagement in the resulting two states, most significantly through a new courtship in Juba. China's historical support for Khartoum left a sour legacy in the South, but the potential for mutual economic benefit means a new chapter in bilateral relations is now being written. Balancing new friends in Juba with old friends in Khartoum, however, has proven a delicate dance. China has been drawn into a high-stakes oil crisis between the two, the consequences of which may temper an otherwise rapidly expanding relationship with Juba. A sustainable solution to the crisis cannot be achieved in isolation; North-South stability, mutual economic viability and the security of Chinese interests will also depend on answers to other unresolved political and security issues, including in Sudan's marginalised peripheries. The future of Beijing's dual engagement, and the kind of relationship that emerges in the South, will depend in part on how the oil standoff – and this broader reform agenda – are confronted.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Oil, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Africa, China, and South Sudan
46. Liberia: Time for Much-Delayed Reconciliation and Reform
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Despite marked improvements, numerous grievances that plunged Liberia into bloody wars from 1989 until President Charles Taylor left in August 2003 (originally for exile in Nigeria) remain evident: a polarised society and political system; corruption, nepotism and impunity; a dishevelled security sector; youth unemployment; and gaps and inconsistencies in the electoral law. The November 2011 election was the country's second successful postwar voting exercise but exposed its deep fault lines. The re-elected president, Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, needs to use her relatively weak mandate to focus on reconciling a divided nation.
- Topic:
- Security, Democratization, Poverty, Natural Resources, Fragile/Failed State, Youth Culture, Governance, and Law Enforcement
- Political Geography:
- Africa
47. Yemen: Enduring Conflicts, Threatened Transition
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- As messy as it has been and unfinished as it remains, Yemen's transition accomplished two critical goals: avoiding a potentially devastating civil war and securing the resignation of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, who had ruled the impoverished country for over three decades. It also cracked the regime's foundations, while making it possible to imagine new rules of the game. Still, much remains in doubt, notably the scope and direction of change. The nation essentially has witnessed a political game of musical chairs, one elite faction swapping places with the other but remaining at loggerheads. Important constituencies – northern Huthi, southern Hiraak, some independent youth movements – feel excluded and view the transition agreement with scepticism, if not distain. Al-Qaeda and other militants are taking advantage of a security vacuum. Socio-economic needs remain unmet. The new government must rapidly show tangible progress (security, economic, political) to contain centrifugal forces pulling Yemen apart, while reaching out to stakeholders and preparing the political environment for inclusive national dialogue.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Security, Political Violence, Civil War, and Terrorism
- Political Geography:
- Yemen and Arabia
48. Police Reform in Guatemala: Obstacles and Opportunities
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- The 25,000 members of the National Civil Police (PNC) are on the front lines of Guatemala's battle against crime. But all too often citizens distrust and fear the police – widely dismissed as inefficient, corrupt and abusive – as much as the criminals. Underfunded, poorly trained and often out-gunned, they are frequently incapable or unwilling to con-front criminals and gain the public trust needed to build a state based on rule of law. Drug traffickers, including Mex-ican cartels, move at will across porous borders, while criminal gangs dominate many urban areas. The government of President Otto Pérez Molina must reboot and revitalise police reform, as part of an overall effort to strengthen justice and law enforcement, with financial support from the U.S. and other countries interested in preventing Guatemala from becoming a haven for organised crime. Progress has been made, but achievements are fragile and easily reversed.
- Topic:
- Security, Corruption, Crime, and Law Enforcement
- Political Geography:
- United States and Latin America
49. North Korean Succession and the Risks of Instability
- Publication Date:
- 07-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Transitions often present risks to authoritarian regimes, but the succession in North Korea has apparently passed with few problems. With no opposition from the military and China's clear support, there are no signs to suggest that Kim Jŏng-ŭn, the young leader who replaced his father, Kim Jong-il, following his death in December 2011, is anything but in charge in his own right. Far from creating a regency of older family members or generals, the North Korean system has maintained its focus on a single leader and projected an image of stability and unity as it celebrates the centenary of the birth of its founder, Kim Il-sung. While that image appears to be accurate, there is nothing to suggest that the new leader is or will become inclined to take measures that would either improve the lot of the country's citizens or reduce the regional frictions that Pyongyang is at the centre of.
- Topic:
- Security, Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, and Political Economy
- Political Geography:
- China, Israel, and North Korea
50. Towards a Post-MINUSTAH Haiti: Making an Effective Transition
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Crisis Group
- Abstract:
- Haiti is now marking the eighth year of the UN Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH). Debate about its eventual withdrawal is intensifying under the one year-old administration of President Michel Martelly. Opposition to its presence stems from the country's nationalistic pride, anger at the cholera epidemic linked to UN peacekeepers and publicity surrounding unacceptable abuses by a small number of peacekeepers. Yet even its critics admit the country's still limited police force cannot guarantee the security needed to protect citizens, enforce the law and underpin political stability. The real debate is not whether MINUSTAH should leave but when, and what to change in Haiti and in the mission's mandate, structure and behaviour to ensure that a phased withdrawal is linked to stronger institutions and progress toward lasting stability and development.
- Topic:
- Security, Health, United Nations, Fragile/Failed State, Law Enforcement, and Peacekeeping
- Political Geography:
- Caribbean and Haiti