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Begin New Search Topic Politics Political Geography Africa Content Type Working Paper

1. Keeping tabs? Perceptions of relative deprivation and political trust in Africa

Author:
Thomas Isbell
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
What are the implications of economic inequality for trust in government and state institutions? Political trust performs important functions in representative political systems, facilitating the efficient functioning of government, simplifying complex political processes, and reducing monitoring costs for ordinary people. The existing literature has shown that macroeconomic performance (including levels of inequality) and evaluations shape political trust. This paper addresses two gaps in the literature by focusing on the role of individual perceptions and subjective experiences of inequality and by studying cases in Africa. Using Afrobarometer survey data collected from more than 40,000 respondents in 34 African countries between late 2016 and mid-2018, I use multi-level modelling to demonstrate that perceptions of relative deprivation are significantly associated with less trust in representative government institutions and, more weakly, with less trust in state institutions. The effect of perceptions of relative deprivation remains significant when controlling for macroeconomic conditions and performance evaluations. In effect size, trust in representative government institutions is at least comparable to frequently cited covariates of trust such as location, level of education, and government economic performance, suggesting that perceived relative deprivation is indeed an important covariate of such trust. Feeling relatively advantaged is also significantly associated with greater trust in representative government institutions. This may reflect strong neo-patrimonial ties between citizens and political agents. In demonstrating that individual-level economic considerations affect political trust in Africa, we challenge the conventional wisdom that only macroeconomic factors affect trust.
Topic:
Politics, Governance, Institutions, and Trust
Political Geography:
Africa

2. Measuring the impact of self-censorship on political party support in Afrobarometer data using machine learning

Author:
Paul Friesen
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
Measures of political party support are viewed suspiciously in hybrid and authoritarian regimes where the two core indicators of political support – elections and public opinion polling – cannot be readily trusted. More accurately, the degree of measurement error is unknown, though scholars presume support for incumbent leaders and parties is exaggerated. This paper scrutinizes the degree to which political opinions on Afrobarometer surveys can be trusted by re-estimating voting preferences for 34 African countries. First, a range of demographic and interview metadata are regressed upon vote choice to see if they systematically influence vote-preference responses. Next, key markers of potential self-censorship are identified and used to create pools of “clean” and “polluted” data. Clean data are used to train a machine learning model to predict voting intentions, and then all data with self-censorship markers are recalculated. The results show that ruling party support is broadly similar in most countries but exaggerated by more than 10 percentage points in Sudan and Uganda and by between 5 and 10 points in Burundi, Tanzania, Togo, and Zimbabwe. Declines in ruling party support due to self-censorship are concurrent with increases in both non-responses and opposition party support.
Topic:
Politics, Censorship, Party System, and Partisanship
Political Geography:
Africa

3. Gender-Based Violence in Egypt and Morocco: Politics and Policy-Making

Author:
Dima Rashed and Rabha Allam
Publication Date:
04-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
IEMed/EuroMeSCo
Abstract:
Violent practices against women are widespread globally. They occur in private quarters and public spaces by persons within a victim’s close circles, including family members, as well as members of the larger society. Over the past half a century, the international community has taken steps to eliminate violence against women (VAW). The Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Discrimination against Women (CEDAW), adopted in 1979 by the United Nations (UN) General Assembly, has defined discrimination against women as “…any distinction, exclusion or restriction made on the basis of sex which has the effect or purpose of impairing or nullifying the recognition, enjoyment or exercise by women, irrespective of their marital status, on a basis of equality of men and women, of human rights and fundamental freedoms in the political, economic, social, cultural, civil or any other field” (UN Women, n.d.a). In 1993, the United Nations Declaration of Violence against Women took another step by defining acts of violence against women as “any act of gender-based violence that results in, or is likely to result in, physical, sexual or psychological harm or suffering to women, including threats of such acts, coercion or arbitrary deprivation of liberty, whether occurring in public or in private life (UNGA, 1993). This global engagement with VAW prompted attention on the legislative and policy-making levels, as well as within academic investigations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, where patriarchal traditions have endured. The paper focuses on Gender-Based Violence (GBV) directed at women and girls in Morocco and Egypt through a comparative investigation of laws and policies. We probe women’s security over the past two decades and find that while Egypt has experienced progress on fighting Female Genital Mutilation (FGM) and economic violence against women, Morocco has advanced on issuing a more progressive Personal Status Code and VAW in the domestic sphere. How can we understand this divergence between two North African countries where Islamic Sharia is the basis of family laws? And how have state-society relations impacted efforts to fight VAW in both countries? We adopt definitions of UN Women on GBV, forms of violence and economic violence. GBV is defined as “harmful acts directed at an individual or a group of individuals based on their gender.” Forms of violence challenging women and girls are defined as “any act of gender-based violence that results in, or is likely to result in, physical, sexual or mental harm or suffering to women and girls, including threats of such acts, coercion or arbitrary deprivation of liberty, whether occurring in public or in private life. Violence against women and girls encompasses, but is not limited to, physical, sexual and psychological violence occurring in the family or within the general community, and perpetrated or condoned by the State” (UN Women, n.d.b). Economic violence is defined as a practice that “involves making or attempting to make a person financially dependent by maintaining total control over financial resources, withholding access to money, and/or forbidding attendance at school or employment” (UN Women, n.d.b).
Topic:
Politics, Gender Based Violence, Feminism, and Gender
Political Geography:
Africa, Egypt, and Morocco

4. Social Determinants and how they Influence Councillor Performance in District Local Government Councils in Uganda

Author:
Fred Kasalirwe, Jonas Mbabazi, Phoebe Atukunda, Oscord Mark Otile, Eugene Gerald Ssemakula, Rebecca N. Mukwaya, and Walter Akena
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Advocates Coalition for Development and Environment (ACODE)
Abstract:
This paper analyses how social determinants influence councillor role performance in the district local government in Uganda. The extent to which elected local government leaders perform their roles is critical for the quality of social services delivered to citizens. In the analysis, social determinants are conceptualised as; the education level of councillors, political party affiliation, electoral terms served/experience, councillor category, gender, and geographical location of the constituency represented by a councillor. In the same analysis, councillors' roles were conceptualised to include; legislation, contact with electorate, participation in lower local governments, and monitoring service delivery.
Topic:
Government, Politics, Governance, Leadership, and Services
Political Geography:
Uganda and Africa

5. The 25 July 2022 Scenarios in Tunisia: Uncertainty after the Referendum

Author:
Zied Boussen
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The referendum on 25 July 2022 will mark yet another important date in Tunisia’s history. This paper seeks to examine these different scenarios, analyze their consequences, study their stakeholders, and determine their likelihood.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Elections, Referendum, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

6. Youth participation in Tunisia’s elections: Some possible solutions

Author:
Lamia Zargouni
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Tunisian youth’s limited participation in political life dates back to before the January 2011 revolution, and recent elections also provide clear examples of the lack of youth participation both as voters and as candidates. This article examines the reasons behind this lack of political participation and presents several ways forward to ensure more inclusive participation for Tunisian youth.
Topic:
Politics, Elections, Youth, Voting, and Participation
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

7. Tunisia in the wake of the referendum: A new divisive Constitution

Author:
Zied Boussen and Malek Lakhal
Publication Date:
08-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
On 25 July 2022, Tunisian President Kais Saied organized a referendum for the adoption of a new constitution, clearly carrying his signature. A first look at the situation by our researchers Zied Boussen and Malek Lakhal sheds light on a so-far unstable Tunisian context.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Constitution, and Referendum
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

8. Tunisia’s Parliament: A Series of Post-Revolution Frustrations

Author:
Saida Ounissi
Publication Date:
09-2022
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Following the 25 July 2021 coup, Tunisia’s parliament has been the focus of President Kais Saied’s frustration and anger – not missing an opportunity in his speeches to point out that he speaks on behalf of the people when criticizing the parliament. This paper focuses on the logistics of the parliament’s everyday life to identify the multiple transformations of the parliamentary political landscape between imposed consensus and progressive fragmentation.
Topic:
Politics, Reform, Arab Spring, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia

9. The “New Algeria” Parliament and the Illusion of Change from Within

Author:
Adel Ourabah
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
Algeria’s June parliamentary elections were the first since the start of the Hirak and Tebboune’s presidency. Despite being promoted as a panacea for the country’s structural crises, and an opportunity for the Hirak to integrate elected bodies, they were marred by very low turnout and failed to renew the political class in Algeria. This paper analyzes the key features of these elections and explores the options they put before the government’s future political plans.
Topic:
Politics, Democracy, Legislation, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Africa and Algeria

10. Ennahda or the cost of recognition

Author:
Thierry Brésillon
Publication Date:
11-2021
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:
The political earthquake that rocked Tunisia on 25 July 2021 and its following 25 September aftershock – which resulted in a loss of power and dissent over contested leadership – had closed a cycle for Ennahda and ushered in a moment of existential uncertainty. It became unclear if the organization could reinvent itself to regain the role it had played since 2011. In one form or another, it was also unclear if the party still had something to offer Tunisians. This is essentially the recurring uncertainty surrounding the relevance of political Islam as a party and its potential to bring about specific solutions to contemporary problems created in the wake of the turmoil of the past few weeks. In this context, this paper will provide a retrospective glance at Ennahda’s trajectory since 2011.
Topic:
Politics, Natural Disasters, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:
Africa and Tunisia