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Begin New Search Political Geography Middle East Content Type Policy Brief Publishing Institution Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations Publication Year within 25 Years

1. Unravelling Turkish involvement in the Sahel: Geopolitics and local impact

Author:
Andrew Lebovich and Nienke van Heukelingen
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In the past decade, Turkey has significantly expanded its engagement in Africa, leading to concerns within the European Union (EU) that this influence might be used to undermine EU policy and member states. This policy brief analyses the strategic motives and evolution of Turkish involvement in the Sahel region, focusing specifically on Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. Drawing from interviews conducted with Sahelian and Turkish political, business, diplomatic and educational stakeholders between October and December 2022, the authors contend that Turkey’s foreign policy in the Sahel demonstrates a multifaceted approach that aims to strengthen its presence across economic, cultural, defence and development spheres. However, it is also emphasised that Turkey’s engagement in the Sahel remains relatively limited when compared to its activities in other African countries, for example Libya, Somalia and Algeria. In light of these findings, this policy brief recommends that the EU adopt a pragmatic approach, drawing lessons from Turkey’s strategy while trying to manage, and where possible benefit from, the impact of Turkish security assistance and to foster opportunities for Sahelian populations in Europe through scholarships and employment initiatives.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, European Union, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, North Africa, and Sahel

2. Power and potential: The economics of Egyptian construction and ICT

Author:
Matteo Colombo
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Young Egyptians’ dissatisfaction with their employment prospects was a key driver of protests in 2011 and 2013. Since then, the country’s political authorities have worked hard to create job opportunities for young Egyptians by boosting growth in the construction sector (infrastructure and public works), among other things. Since the sector also generates substantial revenues for the country’s power elite, this has been a win-win strategy in the short-term. But overreliance on the construction sector has also created too many informal and unstable jobs that are a poor match for Egypt’s many well-educated graduates. Cairo’s growth strategy has not addressed some of the country’s long-standing economic problems, such as informality and a low overall employment rate. Giving the country’s promising ICT sector a boost similar to that of the construction sector to address such deficiencies and anticipate a looming debt crisis requires a paradigm shift with two elements. First, a deal between Egypt’s political authorities and the power elite that buys time in exchange for future rents. Second, facilitation of private sector dynamism through regulatory encouragement and public seed funding for new business activity.
Topic:
Development, Economics, Employment, and Construction
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

3. Shades of grey: The evolving links between the Houthi and Iran

Author:
Mona Saif
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Houthi are not an Iranian proxy in the sense of unquestioningly doing Tehran’s bidding, voluntarily or under pressure. Yet, the movement can be viewed as an informal partner of Tehran. Their relationship has evolved from a partnership of convenience into a more strategic one. Despite this evolution, the Houthi have remained autonomous with respect to their domestic constituencies, political strategy and battlefield operations. For the purpose of peacemaking in Yemen today, as well as subsequent efforts to maintain any peace, this suggests that the Houthi should be considered an autonomous, domestically legitimate (in part) and capable actor, but that Iran also needs to be consulted behind the scenes due to the growth of its relation with the Houthi.
Topic:
Non State Actors, Armed Forces, Houthis, and Peacebuilding
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Yemen

4. Al-Sudani’s first 100 days – Or how to keep everyone happy

Author:
Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
02-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The job of an Iraqi Prime Minister is a complex balancing act on both the domestic and international fronts. To begin with, there is the challenge of managing competition between the country’s factitious elites. Then there is the unresolved tension between self-interested elites and a citizenry that has largely lost faith in its political leaders. Finally, there is the foreign policy dilemma of balancing political and economic dependence on both the US and Iran. By these standards, Prime Minister Mohammed Shiya al-Sudani’s first 100 days in office have provided a crash course on how to please all sides. He has allocated government positions to his supporters with gusto, provisionally left most Sadrist bastions of power in the state untouched (even though Sadrists are excluded from the government) and offered extensive ‘bread and games’ for the population by promising jobs and social security. Al-Sudani has furthermore sought to reassure opposing foreign actors through a hitherto fairly balanced foreign policy. His approach has been enabled by the broad coalition of Iraqi political elites that brought him to the premiership, along with record oil revenues that help grease the wheels of patronage politics. While structural reforms in politics, administration and economics are overdue, they will not happen because Iraq’s political leaders have no need for them in the immediate term. However, unresolved elite contention, a lack of public investment and the absence of reform mean that Iraq is likely heading for tougher times within the space of a couple of years.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Elites, and Public Investment
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

5. Trading short-term gains for long-term costs: the Egyptian political economy under al-Sisi

Author:
Matteo Colombo
Publication Date:
03-2023
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Egypt’s political economy has been operating on the basis of three core principles over the last few decades. First, the country’s political authorities set strategic economic objectives in a top-down manner. Second, the power elite supports the political authorities and, in exchange, tightly supervises homegrown and foreign investment to generate revenues and job opportunities, as well as private benefits. Third, Egyptian citizens acquiesce, willingly or unwillingly, in this division of power that mostly benefits the political authorities and power elites in exchange for improvements in their livelihoods. Since 2014, President al-Sisi has held closely to these principles but relied increasingly on Egypt’s military networks (part of the power elite) to boost economic growth. This strategy has produced short-term gains – informal jobs and an array of consumer goods – at the expense of long-term economic prospects. In particular, the military’s economic influence has deepened some of Egypt’s structural problems: low productivity, inequality, informal unemployment and a suppressed private sector. This limits the future sustainability of the current economic model. Improving Egypt’s economic prospects requires reducing the role of the state – especially the military – in the economy in terms of decreasing the number of associated enterprises and lightening the regulatory framework. However, this is nearly impossible to realise in sectors in which the military already has a dominant profile, such as construction and extractives, because its support is essential for al-Sisi to maintain power. A more promising alternative for European policy makers to consider is influencing the Egyptian government to limit military influence in sectors with growth potential where the military is largely absent, such as manufacturing and Information and Communications Technology (ICT). A government strategy that prevents further military involvement in these sectors, crafts a regulatory framework conducive to private investment and invites foreign funding, can help Egypt realise greater economic growth and higher fiscal revenues.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, Economy, and Abdel Fattah el-Sisi
Political Geography:
Middle East and Egypt

6. Politicking in Doha: But will the Syrian opposition shift to more pragmatic diplomacy?

Author:
Malik al-Abdeh and Lars Hauch
Publication Date:
01-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Syrian Opposition Coalition (SOC) and the Syrian Negotiation Commission (SNC) are in dire need of internal renewal and a new political strategy given the deadlock of UN-led peace negotiations. A forthcoming opposition gathering on 4 February in Doha with more than 80 Syrian opposition leaders, activists and academics might offer an opportunity to do so. However, the event’s public face is Riyad Hijab, who is no longer part of the SOC and is seen as pursuing an internal leadership takeover. It is likely that the event will be part of a series that seeks to create a new centre of opposition without creating a new opposition body. Yet, neither Hijab’s internal politicking nor possible legitimacy/efficiency gains from implementation of a parallel SOC internal reform plan will generate a new political strategy for the opposition. This requires creative and pragmatic diplomacy that focuses on, for example, negotiating crossline arrangements between all conflict parties that improve local security and facilitate travel, trade and aid to improve the desperate situation of the Syrian people — in line with the UN’s call for a ‘safe, calm and neutral environment’ (SCNE). The habits of dialogue and compromise that can gradually develop in this manner could be leveraged at a later stage to address the more complex issues of power sharing and reconstruction once an appropriate window of opportunity has opened up.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Syrian War, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Doha

7. All eyes on Ankara: A scenario exercise focused on the 2023 elections

Author:
Nienke van Heukelingen
Publication Date:
03-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Over the years, foreign policy has become a source of tension in the European Union’s relationship with Turkey. Although the EU has repeatedly disapproved of Ankara’s (military) interventions in Syria, Libya and Iraq as well as in the Eastern Mediterranean region and the South Caucasus, it has so far not been able to counterbalance Ankara’s actions. In that light, Turkey’s 2023 elections serve as a crucial moment. Seen through the lens of two theoretical scenarios – Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the People’s Alliance win the elections, versus Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu and the Nation Alliance win the elections – this policy brief provides an insight into the instruments the EU has at its disposal to influence and/or respond to Ankara’s potential future foreign policy. It shows that while neither scenario will be hassle-free, the EU has most room to manoeuvre and can make best use of its instruments, ranging from diplomatic engagement to military cooperation, in a situation where Kılıçdaroğlu and the Nation Alliance win the elections in 2023.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Elections, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Mediterranean

8. A stubborn threat: Islamic State in Iraq in early 2022

Author:
Nancy Ezzeddine and Matteo Colombo
Publication Date:
05-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
In the four years since its territorial defeat, Islamic State (IS) has proved to be resilient as it continues to mount attacks across Iraq. Analysis of IS activity from September 2021 to February 2022 (six months) shows that the geography, type and targets of IS attacks remained broadly similar to the year preceding this period. The volume of IS attacks increased but this mostly took the form of small-scale and local incidents. By and large, the group seems to be stable and shows neither decline nor growth. It operates nimbly and is mostly active in the arc between Sinjar and Baghdad. Counter-terrorism (CT) operations decreased in volume over the same period but are nevertheless keeping IS in check. However, as CT operations are mostly tactical affairs that remain inadequately coordinated and low on intelligence in some aspects, they have not been able to eliminate IS capacity to mount major operations, or to remove it from entire areas. Broadly speaking, IS attacks and CT operations are in a state of equilibrium. As Iraqi CT efforts emphasise security interventions over socio-political remedies, conditions for IS survival, as well as future revival, remain relatively favourable.
Topic:
Security, Violent Extremism, Counter-terrorism, Islamic State, and Resilience
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

9. Lost in transition: The Muslim Brotherhood in 2022

Author:
Matteo Colombo
Publication Date:
07-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Hamstrung by decades of repression, mistrust and a lack of governance experience, Muslim Brotherhood-linked parties were ultimately unable to navigate the post-2011 tensions between the need to deliver on the popular demands of the Arab uprisings and maintain ideological coherence. Similarly, they struggled to retain their revolutionary credentials and at the same time compromise with ruling elites in order to govern. While this was always a tall order, the consequence has been that decline and crisis followed the organisation’s initial ascent between 2011 and 2013. The Muslim Brotherhood gradually lost its ideological influence over parties it had inspired following the 2013 military takeover against Mohamed Morsi in Egypt. From this year onwards, growing repression, marginalisation and factionalism accelerated the movement’s decline. The arrest and exile of leading Muslim Brotherhood individuals created a leadership void and opened up space for internal strife. Today, the Muslim Brotherhood is a shadow of its former self and in crisis. In parallel to the decline of the Muslim Brotherhood, the legitimacy and relevance of jihadism, political Salafism and Iran’s model of religious rule also appear to have weakened, respectively due to the ‘defeat’ of Islamic State, Saudi modernisation and the poor to mediocre governance provided by Tehran’s partners. This raises the question what major religiously inspired sources of political renewal and mobilisation remain across the Middle East and North Africa that are capable of offering credible prospects for better governance.
Topic:
Governance, Islamism, Legitimacy, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

10. The 2022 Israeli elections: Change, but no change

Author:
Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
On 1 November 2022, Israelis will cast their votes to elect a new parliament for the 25th time since 1948. Between 1949 and 2019 (70 years), Israelis went to the polls 20 times. Each parliamentary assembly (Knesset) averaged 3.5 years. But between 2019 and 2022, Israelis voted four times. Each parliamentary assembly averaged only nine months. This brief examines some of the causes of Israel’s political turmoil and assesses whether it matters for two issues of European concern: Israel’s status as ‘democratic’ ally and the occupation of Palestine. Despite their evident shortcomings with regard to Israeli Arabs and Palestinians, we do not expect the Israeli elections of November 2022 to downgrade the country’s allied status across European capitals. Neither do we anticipate the Israeli elections to moderate the country’s policy of annexation in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. Our analysis suggests instead that future Israeli governments will maintain majoritarian Jewish rule and expects it to be propelled by a more unapologetic and repressive ethno-nationalism. This will lead Israel further down the path of exclusionary governance and large-scale human rights violations that risks backfiring in the long term. It will also further erode the moral credibility of the European Union, including the Netherlands, in the areas of human rights and accountability.
Topic:
Human Rights, Elections, Democracy, Domestic Politics, and Parliament
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

11. A new momentum for EU-Turkey cooperation on migration

Author:
Nienke van Heukelingen
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief considers how to move forward with the (financial element of the) EU-Turkey statement agreed in 2016, under which the first tranche of 3 billion euros will end mid-2021. In order not to reverse the progress achieved and to continue the work on improving the resilience of the 4.1 million refugees in Turkey, there is an urgent need for the European Union and Turkey to agree on a new financial framework. One that builds on the current, generally successful framework – the EU Facility for Refugees in Turkey (FRiT) – but which would divide the burden between Turkey and the EU more equally. Both blocs would, moreover, do well to look into the possibilities of extending the area of cooperation to Idlib. In that area, which is currently under Turkey’s military control, almost three million internally displaced persons (IDPs) currently lack adequate shelter and essentials, which could potentially lead to various displacement scenarios. Neither of those decisions will be easy and will require serious support from all EU member states, but the fact is Turkey remains essential in pursuing the EU’s core interest: preventing another refugee flow into Europe.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, Refugees, and Borders
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

12. Whose Long Arm? Challenges to Understanding Turkish Diaspora Politics

Author:
Christopher Houtkamp and Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:
02-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This Clingendael policy brief seeks to explain visible manifestations of Turkish politics in European cities. Why does Turkish politics lead to unrest in Rotterdam and Berlin and what institutional mechanisms facilitate this? The brief highlights various drivers, institutional manifestations and historical changes, but also points out that there are a number of uncertainties and questions about the motivations for, and modus operandi of, Turkey’s influence in European societies. These questions are all the more relevant as European policy-makers increasingly seek to take measures in order to curb this. The main argument developed in this brief is that effective policy ‘at home’ (in Europe) will require better knowledge of socio-political developments ‘abroad’ (in Turkey). The first and second parts of this brief, therefore, show how the drivers of Turkish influence on the diaspora have changed over time. The third section highlights how present-day diaspora politics is institutionally anchored in Western Europe. Most of the practical examples in this brief are drawn from the Dutch context, but the dynamics will be familiar to those observing this phenomenon in other Western European countries.
Topic:
Politics, Diaspora, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

13. Fruitless cherry picking?: EU engagement with the Syrian opposition (Etilaf)

Author:
Lars Hauch
Publication Date:
07-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief examines the EU’s engagement and relationship with Syria’s main political opposition umbrella, the Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (Etilaf), which was founded in late 2012. It discusses the EU’s engagement strategies with the Etilaf and their impact on its development in the context of the Syrian conflict. The brief highlights that the EU did not substantiate the international legitimacy it granted the organisation early on during the conflict with policies that would have allowed it to expand its domestic legitimacy and capabilities. This policy contributed to developments in which the Etilaf rapidly lost its original potential. While the Etilaf today faces a range of structural and operational challenges that need to be addressed, the brief nevertheless recommends EU institutions and Member States to increase their support for the Etilaf and the Interim Government linked with it, if a number of conditions can be met. Such support will help maintain and develop these bodies into a viable centre of political opposition to the Assad regime. Practically speaking, this objective can be pursued by piloting conditional EU support to areas of northwestern and northern Syria that are nominally under the control of the Interim Government. It also requires building a partnership with Turkey to jointly support local Syrian administration(s) in the same areas.
Topic:
Politics, European Union, Conflict, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, and Opposition
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, and Syria

14. Turkey’s interventions in its near abroad: The case of Idlib

Author:
Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The trigger for the Turkish Operation Spring Shield in northern Idlib in February 2020 was to prevent the Syrian conflict – especially extremists and refugees – spilling over into Turkey as the result of a new regime offensive. A deeper driver of the operation was Ankara’s desire to draw a line against further regime advances that might jeopardise Turkish territorial gains across northern Syria. Millions of Syrian internally displaced persons (IDPs) and the Islamist group Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) were the main – although unintended – beneficiaries of the operation. Tactically, Operation Spring Shield was a success because of a surge in Turkish military resources in northern Idlib, Ankara’s willingness to use them, and the speed with which Turkey acted. Strategically, it helped a great deal that Russia decided to stand aside for a few days. Russian-Turkish diplomacy resumed after battlefield conditions had shifted in Turkey’s favour and Syrian regime forces were stopped in their tracks. In the short term, Operation Spring Shield can be considered as having brought a measure of humanitarian and geopolitical stabilisation by clarifying Turkey’s red lines to Damascus, Tehran and Moscow, and by bringing about a new equilibrium between Russiansupported forces and Turkish forces in Syria. The operation did not negatively affect Turkey’s relationship with its NATO partners, the EU or the US. This was in part because the operation highlighted the limitations of the Astana process – a diplomatic initative in which Turkey, Iran and Russia pursue opposing aims vis-à-vis the Assad regime – from which these actors are excluded. In the medium term, the impact of Operation Spring Shield will depend on the permanence of the Turkish presence, the level of Turkish developmental investment and the evolution, as well as the place, of Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) in the future governance of northern Idlib.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Refugees, Military Intervention, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

15. Turkey’s interventions in its near abroad: The case of Libya

Author:
Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:
09-2021
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The strategic objectives of the Turkish military intervention in Libya in 2019–2020 in favour of the Government of National Accord (GNA) were geopolitical (establishing an entry point into Africa in addition to Somalia), geo-economical (related to gas exploration in the Mediterranean) and commercial (facilitating repayment of outstanding business debts and enabling future profits). The deeper drivers of Ankara’s intervention include a mix of more assertive nationalism based on a hegemonic conception of Turkey’s ‘near abroad’, a perceived need to counter the military campaign of the Libyan National Army (LNA)’s to conquer Tripolitania, and Turkey’s exclusion from Mediterranean gas politics. Ankara’s intervention and its institutionalisation proved effective in counterbalancing the LNA and its international backers – chiefly Russia and the UAE, but also France and Egypt – and produced a more stable political situation in the process. While Turkey has achieved its short- to medium-term objectives and is likely to retain a substantial permanent military, commercial and political presence in Libya, it also created tensions with the EU and US as well as antagonizing the LNA’s international backers. In brief, an improvement in Turkey’s geostrategic position might have come at the cost of its regional strategic relations.
Topic:
Politics, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, Military Intervention, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Libya

16. Pandemic or pandemonium? Covid-19 and conflict in the Middle East

Author:
Engin Yüksel, Nancy Ezzeddine, Rena Netjes, Beatrice Noun, and Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Middle East was already plagued by war, famine and death in the form of the Syrian and Yemeni civil wars, the Israeli occupation of Palestine, the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia as well as the US, radical extremism, the Kurdish question and Iraq’s many travails – in large part a result of decades of autocracy, corruption and repression. The outbreak of Covid-19 added pestilence to this trio and makes for a harmful long-term mix. With this in mind, the purpose of the brief is twofold: first, to examine the longer-term impact of the virus on political tensions and conflict in the region; and second, to explore opportunities for innovative conflict resolution that might be seized in the wake of Covid-19. In this way, we hope to stimulate something good coming out of this trying period yet.
Topic:
Fragile States, Conflict, Crisis Management, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Middle East

17. Beyond UN Security Council action: Treating Idlib as protracted crisis

Author:
Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
On 10 July 2020, UN Security Council Resolution 2504 expires.1 It authorises humanitarian access from Turkey into northwest Syria. Should it not be extended, a humanitarian catastrophe will almost certainly occur. Fortunately, intense lobbying is already underway to avoid such an outcome. But other actions are essential beyond the resolution’s renewal. Key among those is the need for a shift in approach: instead of handling northwest Syria as a humanitarian emergency, the area should be treated as a protracted crisis to reflect the absence of a short-term solution to the predicament of its four million residents, including 2.7 million internally displaced. In practice, this means that much more humanitarian aid should be delivered through local Syrian organisations, reliable mechanisms for cross-line aid operations should be introduced, and the ground should be prepared for more EU engagement with Turkey and Russia. Without such actions, human suffering and its exploitation are bound to increase.
Topic:
United Nations, Syrian War, Crisis Management, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, and Idlib

18. Waiting for blowback: The Kurdish question and Turkey’s new regional militarism

Author:
Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Recent Turkish interventions in parts of Syria, Iraq and Turkey itself, look like pushing various Kurdish armed forces and political groupings towards ‘defeat’ via a concerted regional strategy that combines battlefield action with repression and co-optation. But the ‘anti-terrorist’ frame and tactics that Ankara uses in a bid to solve its Kurdish problem feature many sticks and no compromises to improve Kurdish collective minority rights. It is likely that this approach will inhibit peaceful resistance and fail to reduce support for armed groups like the PKK and PYD despite their own authoritarian practices. Moreover, Turkey’s new regional militarism risks escalating conflict across the Middle East because of the complex international and transnational contexts in which Ankara’s interventions take place.
Topic:
International Affairs, Non State Actors, Conflict, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

19. Eagles riding the storm of war: The role of the Syrian Social Nationalist Party

Author:
Nick Grinstead, Christopher Solomon, and Jesse McDonald
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Eagles of the Whirlwind are one of the many militias that have fought on the part of President Assad’s forces in the Syrian civil war. The regime allowed it to defend and police Syrian territory and, in some cases, to fight alongside the Syrian Arab Army on the frontlines. The group proved to be a capable and effective paramilitary auxiliary. What makes the Eagles of interest is that its parent political party - the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) – was able to increase the space for its political activities in exchange for the battlefield services of its militia. This is not a mean feat under the authoritarian system of decades of Assad-rule that brooked no political diversity whatsoever. It is all the more remarkable because the SSNP has historically been a political rival to the Syrian Ba’ath party. This policy brief analyses the main interests and dynamics by which the SSNP managed to translate the battlefield support and achievements of the Eagles into ministerial positions and open recruitment rallies for party members across regime-held territory. It also examines the SSNP as a novel form of support to the Assad regime that traded greater political auton¬omy for paramilitary mobilization in support of the regime - without, so far, resulting in a more permanent role for the Eagles in the Syrian security architecture. While accepting greater political autonomy for the SSNP was a price the Assad regime was willing to pay for extra auxiliary fighting capacity, it remains to be seen how durable the SSNP’s hard-won autonomy will be.
Topic:
Security, Non State Actors, Authoritarianism, Syrian War, Militias, and Bashar al-Assad
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

20. Turkey in northwestern Syria: Rebuilding empire at the margins

Author:
Erwin van Veen and Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:
06-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief analyses the official discourse and actual practices of Turkish control and reconstruction in northwestern Syria. It finds that Turkey pursues a strategy that seeks to achieve control and influence through a mix of military occupation and fullscale reconstruction based on the logic of Turkification and the deployment abroad of the domestic apparatus of the Turkish state. The main objective of this strategy is to contain and undo the politico-territorial gains of the Syrian Kurds. In the process, Turkey largely bypasses the Syrian National Coalition. While this ‘reconstruct-the-buffer-zone’ strategy has been comparatively successful in the Al-Bab-Azaz-Jarablus area, it is running into trouble in the Kurdish-dominated Afrin area due to heavy-handed Turkish tactics of repression and the insurgency campaign that was launched by the Syrian Kurds. Yet, the nature of Turkish reconstruction engagement suggest it is there to stay, which in turn is likely to prolong the Syrian conflict. It will also create several problems from an EU policy perspective, including repression of Syria’s Kurds, an uncertain future of Syrian refugees in Turkey and violation of international law.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Conflict, Syrian War, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Turkey, Middle East, and Syria