- CIAO Search Results

39301. Going Global

Author:: Jason Q. Ng
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: World Policy Journal
Institution:: World Policy Institute
Abstract:: Chinese Internet company Baidu recently debuted Busca, a Portuguese version of its search engine localized for Brazilian users. Though, as China's state news agency Xinhua pointed out, this was not Baidu's first foray into overseas markets, it was the first time China's top leader was personally on hand to support the launch. As Chinese President Xi Jinping and Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff jointly pressed a button initiating the service, it appeared China had taken another step in leveraging its fast-growing technology companies to enhance its global soft power—something Xi's predecessor, Hu Jintao, had declared a key national objective.
Political Geography:: China and Brazil

39302. Canada's Bad Dream

Author:: Andrew Clement
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: World Policy Journal
Institution:: World Policy Institute
Abstract:: TORONTO—Edward Snowden's June 2013 leak has shone unprecedented light on the dark underside of Internet connectivity. So far, however, Canada has remained a victim largely hidden in the shadows.
Political Geography:: Canada

39303. You Can't Stop The Signal

Author:: Mahmoud Salem
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: World Policy Journal
Institution:: World Policy Institute
Abstract:: CAIRO, Egypt—As a child of the 1980s, I grew up watching science fiction television shows and movies—all set in the "not-so-distant future." Holographic communication, teleportation, and flying cars were central tenets of that universe. And while I marveled at the prospect of these technologies, I was most fascinated by the "magical technological device"—that could be used to complete any task, from basic communication to dissemination of news to national security. Though I later learned that this device was nothing more than a plot twist used to advance these stories, I gained something quite special from this twist—a belief in the promise of the future.
Political Geography:: Egypt

39304. Mali's Nomads: Bulwarks Against Jihad

Author:: Nicholas Jubber
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: World Policy Journal
Institution:: World Policy Institute
Abstract:: TIMBUKTU, Mali—"We are the only ones who didn't leave." Sandy Ag Mostapha is standing beside his cattle, a black turban binding his head and a loose shirt draped over dusty trousers. We are in Tayshak, a Tuareg encampment in the desert about six miles north of Timbuktu, where a few tents, made from goat skins, are pitched between feathery acacias. Before the crisis of 2012, some 60 families lived here, but that number has been reduced to just 15.

39305. Germany in a Changing World

Author:: Armin Staigis
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: World Policy Journal
Institution:: World Policy Institute
Abstract:: BERLIN —At the Munich Security Conference earlier this year, the President of Germany, Joachim Gauck asked the following key questions: "Has Germany already adequately recognized the new threats and the changing structure of the international order? "Has Germany shown enough initiative to ensure the future viability of the networks of norms, friends, and alliances, which after all brought us peace in freedom and democracy in prosperity?" A moment later he took it upon himself to provide the answers: "Germany should make a more substantial contribution, and it should make it earlier and more decisively if it is to be a good partner."
Political Geography:: Germany

39306. Colombia's Conflict Lessons

Author:: Jake Rollow
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: World Policy Journal
Institution:: World Policy Institute
Abstract:: EASTERN ANTIOQUIA, Colombia—In late 2001, Sandra Mira was kidnapped while riding a bus with her six-year-old daughter through rural Colombia. Paramilitaries in camouflage uniforms stopped the bus and forced both to disembark. They tied up Sandra, then returned her daughter to the bus. When the girl arrived in San Carlos, the town where the family lived, she asked someone to call her grandmother, Pastora Mira.
Political Geography:: Colombia

39307. Sumud: The Palestinian Art of Existence

Author:: Rebecca Gould
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: World Policy Journal
Institution:: World Policy Institute
Abstract:: BETHLEHEM, West Bank—At the edge of Bethlehem, a few blocks from Gilo terminal, past one of the checkpoints where anyone who needs to reach Israel must pass, is a small apartment—its view obstructed by the Barrier. The home was recently built by its Palestinian Christian owner, Adnan, from money he had saved while working for a foreign company in Jerusalem. His permit had recently expired, though, and he was no longer able to work in Jerusalem. Still, Adnan, who asked that his name not be used in this explosive environment, had worked intensely for decades. He had managed to save enough to build a home not only for himself and his family, but also to add a two-bedroom guesthouse. He was now seeking a tenant.

39308. Europe's Existential Threats

Author:: David A. Andelman
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: World Policy Journal
Institution:: World Policy Institute
Abstract:: On Saturday, October 1, 1977, I arrived in Belgrade to take up my post as East European bureau chief of The New York Times. I'd timed my arrival to coincide with the opening of the conference of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (CSCE), one of many efforts during the depths of the Cold War to facilitate dialogue between East and West—the two halves of a very much divided, and at times hostile, Europe.
Political Geography:: New York and Europe

39309. Congo: Ending the Status Quo

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: The November 2013 defeat of the M23 armed group raised the hope that, after almost two decades of conflict, fundamental change and stabilisation were possible in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and the region. This was the result of a rare convergence of interests between Kinshasa and major international and regional actors. However, the unity of vision and action that materialised in the February 2013 signing of the Peace, Security and Cooperation Framework (PSCF) agreement has now dissolved. It needs to be restored, if necessary through the UN Security Council (UNSC) convening a high-level meeting of DRC government, other key regional players and international actors to develop a shared and comprehensive strategy to deal with the armed groups still operating in eastern DRC. Failure to do so will prolong the tragic status quo of attacks and pillaging by armed groups against an already brutalised civilian population.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Democratic Republic of the Congo and United Nations

39310. Guinea's Other Emergency: Organising Elections

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: In the midst of the Ebola crisis, Guinea is preparing for the presidential election due in 2015. The exact election date is just one of many points being contested by the government and opposition. The political debate is increasingly held along ethnic lines, rallying the vast majority of the Malinké behind President Alpha Condé's coalition and the Peul behind former Prime Minister Cellou Dalein Diallo's alliance. Violent protests around elections in 2012 and 2013, with highly contested results, brought both sides to the negotiating table, but the July 2014 talks about a future electoral framework quickly failed, marking the parties' deep suspicion and unwillingness to compromise. A highly flawed judiciary adds to the climate of uncertainty and the government is reluctant to listen to calls for a new round of dialogue and international mediation. In its latest briefing, Guinea's Other Emergency: Organising Elections, the International Crisis Group outlines the steps that should be taken to ensure peaceful elections.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Ethnic Government, Political Power Sharing, and Self Determination
Political Geography:: Africa and Guinea

39311. Closing banks to the corrupt: the role of due diligence and peps

Author:: Craig Fagan and Matteo De Simone
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Transparency International
Abstract:: People in positions of power — often called Politically-Exposed Persons (PEPs) — may abuse their entrusted role for their own personal gain, feeding grand corruption. Banks provide one of the stopping places for these ill-gotten monies. Until now, financial institutions and their regulatory authorities have failed to prevent them from being a safe place for the corrupt. Now is the time to close this loophole.
Topic:: Corruption, Crime, International Trade and Finance, and Reform

39312. Regulating luxury investments: What dirty money can't buy

Author:: Craig Fagan and Matteo De Simone
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Transparency International
Abstract:: Most international standards and law enforcement agencies focus their efforts on fighting money laundering by banks and financial institutions. However, several non-financial sectors, such as real estate and luxury goods, are extremely vulnerable to illicit financial flows. Now is the time to clean up the sector and close this loophole for the corrupt.
Topic:: Corruption, Crime, International Trade and Finance, and Reform

39313. Leaving the corrupt at the door: from denial of entry to passport sales

Author:: Craig Fagan and Matteo De Simone
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Transparency International
Abstract:: For some people national borders constitute an insurmountable barrier. For others, they represent a comfortable way to hide ill-gotten wealth and to escape accountability for their actions. Now is the time to close the legal loopholes that allow corrupt individuals to elude justice for themselves and their money.
Topic:: Corruption, Crime, and Reform

39314. Ending secrecy to end impunity: Tracing the beneficial owner

Author:: Craig Fagan and Matteo De Simone
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Transparency International
Abstract:: Shedding light on who benefits from companies is a key defence for stopping corruption. Such information helps to prevent a safe haven to hide the proceeds of corruption and aids in revealing the money trail behind it.
Topic:: Corruption and Reform

39315. Gender, equality and corruption: what are the linkages?

Author:: Craig Fagan and Marie Chene
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Transparency International
Abstract:: Gender inequality and corruption are closely inter-linked. Gender inequalities undermine good governance, sustainable growth, development outcomes and poverty alleviation. Where countries have made advances in women's empowerment and gender equality, they have witnessed lower levels of corruption over time.
Topic:: Corruption, Gender Issues, Poverty, and Reform

39316. Corruption and sport: building integrity to prevent abuses

Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Transparency International
Abstract:: Sport is a global phenomenon engaging billions of people and generating annual revenues of more than US$ 145 billion. But corruption and challenges to governance threaten to undermine all the good that sport can do and joy that it brings. For Transparency International, tackling the roots of corruption in sports requires coordinated stakeholder actions. This must happen and be driven from within the sports community.
Topic:: Corruption, Governance, and Culture

39317. Asset Declarations: An effective tool to fight corruption?

Author:: Craig Fagan
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Transparency International
Abstract:: Public sector officials who have achieved positions of power and managerial control over government budgets and spending can be particularly vulnerable to corruption. Asset declarations offer a critical tool to public officials and those they serve in the prevention, detection, investigation and sanctioning of corruption.
Topic:: Corruption, Government, Reform, and Budget

39318. A Moment of Opportunity in the EU-Turkey Relationship

Author:: Sinan Ülgen and Marc Pierini
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: Relations between Ankara and Brussels are about more than Turkey's potential accession to the European Union (EU). The relationship is diversified, but it needs to be deepened and modernized. While Turkey's EU membership vocation should be maintained, Ankara and Brussels should take steps to update their partnership and vastly improve cooperation on current challenges that are of vital importance for both.
Topic:: Diplomacy and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Europe and Turkey

39319. Russia's Breakout From the Post–Cold War System: The Drivers of Putin's Course

Author:: Dmitri V. Trenin
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:: In 2014, Russia broke out of the post-Cold War order and openly challenged the U.S.-led international system. This was essentially the result of the failure of attempts to integrate Russia into the Euro-Atlantic community. The new period of rivalry between the Kremlin and the West is likely to endure for years. Moscow's new course is laid down first and foremost by President Vladimir Putin, but it also reflects the rising power of Russian nationalism.
Topic:: Cold War, Nationalism, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: Russia and United States

39320. Addressing the Food, Water, and Energy Nexus: Transatlantic Perspectives and Africa's Great Chance

Author:: Peter Engelke
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: This report explores how the relationships between food, water, and energy resources shape our world and its future, with emphasis on Africa and the transatlantic region. Called the food-water-energy “nexus,” the interdependencies between these resources are fundamental to all human endeavor on Earth. Understanding this nexus and managing it effectively is a critical challenge for policymakers and thought leaders in the transatlantic arena. Solving the challenges found on the African continent might present both the greatest task and the greatest reward. The potential pitfalls of failing to tackle Africa's foodwater- energy challenges are enormous, for Africans themselves and for all countries sharing the Atlantic Ocean space. But the potential downside is more than matched by the potential upside, and the gains to be had from solving nexus problems in Africa might prove as profound as any set of goals in the world.
Topic:: Development, Energy Policy, Water, and Food
Political Geography:: Africa, Middle East, and North Africa

39321. Watch this Space: 'Collective Self-defense,' Constitutional Reinterpretation, and Japan's Security Policy

Author:: Adam P. Liff
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Throughout the postwar period, the Government of Japan's (GOJ) definition and interpretation of collective self-defense and Article 9 of Japan's constitution have played a crucial role in how its leaders develop and employ military power. This issue also has had significant implications for its political and security relationship with the United States.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
Political Geography:: United States and Japan

39322. A Pre-Lima Scorecard for Evaluating which Countries are Doing Their Fair Share in Pledged Carbon Cuts

Author:: Jeffrey Frankel, Valentina Bosetti, and James W. Harpel
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: Those worried about the future of the earth's climate are hoping that the climate change convention in Lima, Peru, in December 2014, will yield progress toward specific national commitments to reduce greenhouse-gas (GHG) emissions. The Lima conference will be hosted by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and is a prelude to the make-or-break Paris meeting of the UNFCCC, in December 2015, where a new international agreement is scheduled to be concluded.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Governance
Political Geography:: United Nations and Peru

39323. Possible Frameworks for Verification of a WMD/DVs Free Zone in the Middle East - The Nuclear Dimension

Author:: Olli Heinonen
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: The Resolution on the Middle East adopted without vote at the 1995 Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT) Review and Extension Conference calling for the establishment of a zone in the Middle East free of nuclear weapons, and all other weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and their delivery vehicles (DVs), was reaffirmed by the 2000 and 2010 NPT Review Conferences. The 2010 Conference mandated the Secretary- General of the United Nations and the co-sponsors of the 1995 Resolution, in consultation with the states of the region, to convene a conference in 2012, to be attended by all states of the Middle East. The mandate was the establishment of a Middle East zone free of nuclear and all other weapons of mass destruction, on the basis of arrangements freely arrived at by the states of the region, and with the full support and engagement of the nuclear-weapon states. The anticipated 2012 Conference was mandated to take the 1995 Resolution as its terms of reference.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, and International Security
Political Geography:: Middle East

39324. Nonfatal Casualties and the Changing Costs of War

Author:: Tanisha M. Fazal
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:: This policy brief is based on "Dead Wrong? Battle Deaths, Military Medicine, and Exaggerated Reports of War's Demise," which appears in the summer 2014 issue of International Security.
Topic:: Health, War, Military Strategy, and Budget

39325. The California REDD+ Experience: The Ongoing Political History of California's Initiative to Include Jurisdictional REDD+ Offsets within Its Cap-and-Trade System

Author:: Jesse Lueders, Cara Horowitz, Ann Carlson, Sean B. Hecht, and Edward A. Parson
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: For the last several years, California has considered the idea of recognizing, within its greenhouse gas cap-and-trade program, offsets generated by foreign states and provinces through reduced tropical forest destruction and degradation and related conservation and sustainability efforts, known as REDD+. During their deliberations on the issue, state policymakers have heard arguments from stakeholders in favor of crediting REDD+ offsets, and those against. After years of planning and cooperative efforts undertaken with states in Brazil, Mexico, and elsewhere, California is still determining whether to embrace REDD+ offsets. The most salient and potentially persuasive arguments in favor stem from the opportunity to influence and reduce international forest-related emissions contributing to climate change, while simultaneously reducing the costs imposed by the state's climate change law. The state is still grappling, however, with serious questions about the effectiveness of REDD+ in addressing climate change, as well as the impacts of REDD+ on other social and environmental objectives. The suitability of the state's cap-and-trade program as a tool for reducing emissions outside the state, given the co-benefits that accrue to local communities from in-state reductions, remains another key area of debate. The outcome of this policy discussion will depend on interrelated questions of program design, future offset supply and demand, and the weight given to the importance of prioritizing in-state emissions reductions and co-benefits.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: United States, Brazil, California, and Mexico

39326. To Charge or Not to Charge: Evidence from a Health Products Experiment in Uganda

Author:: Dean Karlan, Pia Raffler, Greg Fischer, and Margaret McConnell
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: In a field experiment in Uganda, we find that demand after a free distribution of three health products is lower than after a sale distribution. This contrasts with work on insecticide-treated bed nets, highlighting the importance of product characteristics in determining pricing policy. We put forward a model to illustrate the potential tension between two important factors, learning and anchoring, and then test this model with three products selected specifically for their variation in the scope for learning. We find the rank order of shifts in demand matches with the theoretical prediction, although the differences are not statistically significant.
Topic:: Development and Health
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

39327. Two Global Challenges, One Solution: International Cooperation to Combat Climate Change and Tropical Deforestation

Author:: Antonio G.M. La Viña and Alaya de Leon
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This paper provides an analysis of the international political dynamics around the reduction of tropical deforestation and forest degradation as a climate mitigation strategy, emphasizing the necessity of an enabling environment and sustainable financing to support the scaling up of these efforts globally. After describing the evolution from the 1990s of international cooperation to combat tropical deforestation, the paper focuses principally on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and how it provided an impetus for a renewed effort on this issue. The paper describes the complex process through which the climate and tropical forest agenda got inserted into UNFCCC processes, from its marginal role in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) created by the Kyoto Protocol to the emergence of REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and the Role of Conservation, Sustainable Management of Forests and Enhancement of Forest Carbon Stocks) as the forum where decisions have been made on climate and tropical forests. The paper dissects the issues that have dominated the REDD+ negotiations, identifies and characterizes the actors and constituencies that have been influential in the process, analyzes lessons learned from the successes of this UNFCCC agenda, and suggests recommendations to move the REDD+ and overall tropical forests and climate agenda forward. The paper concludes with an anticipation of what to expect in the future, in the light especially of what could possibly be a new climate change agreement in 2015.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: United Nations

39328. Climate Policy Constraints and NGO Entrepreneurship: The Story of Norway's Leadership in REDD+ Financing

Author:: Erlend A. T. Hermansen and Sjur Kasa
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: Norway – a small northern country with only 5 million inhabitants – is at present a global leader in REDD+ financing. In this paper, we explain why and how this happened by telling the story about the emergence of Norway's International Climate and Forest Initiative (NICFI) in 2007 and its institutionalization in the following years. We emphasize how a set of Norwegian climate policy characteristics prepared the ground for NICFI. These characteristics were the relative absence of less expensive potential emission cuts domestically, a tradition of seeking cheaper emission reduction options abroad, and few fiscal constraints due to high petroleum revenues. When the domestic demand for a more proactive climate policy started to increase from 2006 onward, two Norwegian environmental NGOs, The Rainforest Foundation Norway and Friends of the Earth Norway, exploited the window of opportunity that emerged from the tension between high domestic abatement costs and increasing domestic climate policy demands by proposing a large-scale Norwegian rainforest effort. This proposal resonated well with the new emphasis on reduced deforestation as a promising climate policy measure internationally. Towards the end of 2007, these ENGOs managed to convince a broad majority in Parliament that large-scale financing of measures to reduce deforestation globally should become an important part of Norwegian climate policy. Financing NICFI through the growth in the steadily increasing development aid budget dampened opposition from more fiscally conservative actors and facilitated the rapid set-up of a flexible implementing organization directly linked to some of the most proactive politicians. Several agreements with key rainforest countries were rapidly established, and including ENGOs in policy formulation and implementation helped maintaining the momentum and legitimacy for NICFI as a more permanent solution to Norway's climate policy dilemmas. NICFI's robustness and high level of legitimacy are illustrated by the fact that the initiative has survived the recent 2013 change of government quite intact. However, we also suggest that the long-time survival of the initiative may be dependent on the future of the UNFCCC process as well as the destiny of the national projects.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:: Europe and Norway

39329. To Charge or Not to Charge: Evidence from a Health Products Experiment in Uganda

Author:: Dean Karlan, Greg Fischer, Margaret McConnell, and Pia Raffler
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: In a field experiment in Uganda, we find that demand after a free distribution of three health products is lower than after a sale distribution. This contrasts with work on insecticide-treated bed nets, highlighting the importance of product characteristics in determining pricing policy. We put forward a model to illustrate the potential tension between two important factors, learning and anchoring, and then test this model with three products selected specifically for their variation in the scope for learning. We find the rank order of shifts in demand matches with the theoretical prediction, although the differences are not statistically significant.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Governance
Political Geography:: Uganda, Europe, and Germany

39330. Value Subtraction in Public Sector Production: Accounting Versus Economic Cost of Primary Schooling in India

Author:: Lant Pritchett and Yamini Aiyar
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: We combine newly created data on per student government expenditure on children in government elementary schools across India, data on per student expenditure by households on students attending private elementary schools, and the ASER measure of learning achievement of students in rural areas. The combination of these three sources allows us to compare both the “accounting cost” difference of public and private schools and also the “economic cost”—what it would take public schools, at their existing efficacy in producing learning, to achieve the learning results of the private sector. We estimate that the “accounting cost” per student in a government school in the median state in 2011/12 was Rs. 14,615 while the median child in private school cost Rs. 5,961. Hence in the typical Indian state, educating a student in government school costs more than twice as much than in private school, a gap of Rs. 7,906. Just these accounting cost gaps aggregated state by state suggests an annual excess of public over private cost of children enrolled in government schools of Rs. 50,000 crores (one crore=10 million) or .6 percent of GDP. But even that staggering estimate does not account for the observed learning differentials between public and private. We produce a measure of inefficiency that combines both the excess accounting cost and a money metric estimate of the cost of the inefficacy of lower learning achievement. This measure is the cost at which government schools would be predicted to reach the learning levels of the private sector. Combining the calculations of accounting cost differentials plus the cost of reaching the higher levels of learning observed in the private sector state by state (as both accounting cost differences and learning differences vary widely across states) implies that the excess cost of achieving the existing private learning levels at public sector costs is Rs. 232,000 crores (2.78% of GDP, or nearly US$50 billion). It might seem counterintuitive that the total loss to inefficiency is larger than the actual budget, but that is because the actual budget produces such low levels of learning at such high cost that when the loss from both higher expenditures and lower outputs are measured it exceeds expenditures.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Privatization, and Reform
Political Geography:: India and Asia

39331. Measurement and Monitoring for REDD+: The Needs, Current Technological Capabilities and Future Potential

Author:: Jonah Busch, Scott J. Goetz, Matthew Hansen, Richard A. Houghton, Wayne Walker, and Nadine Laporte
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Global Development
Abstract:: This paper presents an overview of the state of measurement and monitoring capabilities for forests in the context of REDD+ needs, with a focus on what is currently possible, where improvements are needed, and what capabilities will be advanced in the near-term with new technologies already under development. We summarize the role of remote sensing (both satellite and aircraft) for observational monitoring of forests, including measuring changes in their current and past extent for setting baselines, their carbon stock density for estimating emissions in areas that are deforested or degraded, and their regrowth dynamics following disturbance. We emphasize the synergistic role of integrating field inventory measurements with remote sensing for best practices in monitoring, reporting and verification. We also address the potential of remote sensing for enforcing safeguards on conservation of natural forests and biodiversity. We argue that capabilities exist now to meet operational needs for REDD+ measurement, reporting, and verification (MRV) and reference levels. For some other areas of importance for REDD+, such as safeguards for natural forests and biodiversity, monitoring capabilities are approaching operational in the near term. For all REDD+ needs, measurement capabilities will rapidly advance in the next few years as a result of new technology as well as advances in capacity building both within and outside of the tropical forest nations on which REDD+ is primarily focused.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, and Natural Resources

39332. Legalization Programs and the Integration of Unauthorized Immigrants: A Comparison of S. 744 and IRCA

Author:: María E Enchautegui
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Experiences under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 (IRCA) may prove to be a poor guide for understanding how smoothly today's unauthorized immigrants will integrate into the economy under reform proposals such as the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act (S. 744). While IRCA provided a relatively quick path to legal permanent resident status, S. 744 proposes a decade long process with much attendant uncertainty. This and other provisions in S. 744 may adversely affect immigrants' integration and economic mobility.
Topic:: Economics and Immigration
Political Geography:: United States

39333. The Price of Rights: Regulating International Labor Migration

Author:: Susan Gzesh
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: International human rights are "inalienable, indivisible, and universal." One cannot bargain away one's rights ("inalienable"); human rights are a whole with economic rights and civil rights being inter-dependent ("indivisible"); and human rights do not depend on citizenship or membership in a nation state ("universal"). A human being does not lose his or her human rights by crossing a border. However in state regulation of the entrance and stay of temporary migrant workers, the ideal of universal human rights clashes with the prerogatives of sovereignty and power.
Topic:: Human Rights and Immigration
Political Geography:: United States

39334. Temporary Protected Status after 25 Years: Addressing the Challenge of Long-Term "Temporary" Residents and Strengthening a Centerpiece of US Humanitarian Protection

Author:: Claire Bergeron
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Since 1990, the United States has offered hundreds of thousands of non-citizens who are unable to return to their countries of origin because of war or a natural disaster a vital form of humanitarian protection: temporary protected status (TPS). While a grant of TPS does not place a non-citizen on a path to permanent residence, TPS recipients receive protection against deportation and temporary permission to live and work in the United States. Nearly 25 years after the statutory creation of TPS, however, the use of the program has been the subject of some debate, largely because of concerns over whether TPS grants are truly "temporary."
Political Geography:: United States

39335. Creating a More Responsive and Seamless Refugee Protection System: The Scope, Promise and Limitations of US Temporary Protection Programs

Author:: Donald Kerwin
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Temporary protection programs can provide haven to endangered persons while states and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) work to create durable solutions in sending, host and third countries. They have the potential to further the interests of forced migrants in protection, states in effective and coordinated migration management, and the international community in solidarity.
Topic:: Immigration
Political Geography:: United States

39336. Mrs. Shipley's Ghost: The Right to Travel and Terrorist Watchlists

Author:: Susan Ginsburg
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: The 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights affirmed in Article 13 that "[e]veryone has the right to leave any country, including his own, and to return to his country." In response to the Soviet Union's and China's prohibitive controls over the travel of their citizens, Article 13 recognized the right of individual citizens to take trips to other countries willing to receive them, knowing that they may return home at the end of their foreign stays.
Topic:: Globalization and Human Rights
Political Geography:: United States and China

39337. Identifying and Measuring the Lifelong Human Capital of "Unskilled" Migrants in the Mexico-US Migratory Circuit

Author:: Jacqueline Hagan, Jean Luc Demonsant, and Sergio Chávez
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: Most human capital and migration studies classify migrants with limited formal education as "unskilled," despite substantial skills developed through job and life experiences. Drawing on a binational multi-stage research project that involved interviews with 320 Mexican migrants and return migrants in North Carolina and Guanajuato, Mexico, we identify the lifelong human capital they acquired and transferred throughout their careers and discover that these include not only basic education and English, but also technical and social skills and competences acquired informally on and off the job throughout the course of one's life. We further find that the learning and transfer of skills is a lifelong, gendered process, reflecting the different social contexts and jobs in which men and women learn. In this paper we document several mobility pathways associated with the acquisition and transfer of skills across the migratory circuit, including reskilling, occupational mobility, job jumping, and entrepreneurship.
Topic:: Immigration
Political Geography:: Mexico and North Carolina

39338. Unfulfilled Promises, Future Possibilities: The Refugee Resettlement System in the United States

Author:: Todd Scribner and Anastasia Brown
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: World War II caused the displacement of millions of people throughout Europe. In response, the United States initiated a public-private partnership that assisted in the resettlement of hundreds of thousands of the region's displaced persons. For nearly 40 years after the War, the US commitment to refugee resettlement played out in an ad hoc fashion as it responded to emerging crises in different ways. During this period the government's involvement with resettlement became gradually intertwined with that of non-governmental resettlement agencies, which came to play an increasingly vital role in the resettlement process. The budding relationship that began in the middle decades of the twentieth century set the foundation for an expansive and dynamic public-private partnership that continues to this day. The Refugee Act of 1980solidified the relationship between resettlement agencies and the federal government, established political asylum in US law, and created the refugee resettlement program and a series of assistance programs to help refugees transition to life in the United States. This legislation marked a decisive turning point in the field of refugee resettlement.
Topic:: War
Political Geography:: United States and Europe

39339. An Overview of Pending Asylum and Refugee Legislation in the US Congress

Author:: Melanie Nezer
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Journal on Migration and Human Security
Institution:: Center for Migration Studies of New York
Abstract:: There has been no significant legislation related to the asylum process enacted in Congress in nearly a decade. In 1996, the Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigration Responsibility Act (IIRIRA) became law, rolling back protections for asylum seekers by including a one-year deadline for filing asylum applications, subjecting asylum seekers to "expedited removal" procedures, and expanding the detention of asylum seekers. In 2005, Congress enacted the REAL ID Act, which created additional legal barriers to asylum, including new requirements for proving an asylum claim.
Topic:: Immigration
Political Geography:: United States

39340. Stanford Working Group on Responding to Refugees

Author:: James C. Hathaway and Roland Hsu
Publication Date:: 03-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for International Security and Cooperation (CISAC), Stanford University
Abstract:: As a matter of principle, the international community has agreed to a treaty-based rights regime designed to make refugees autonomous drivers of their own survival and future. Under international law, refugee status and rights accrue based on facts, not formalities. The interests of receiving states are addressed by the treaty's emphasis on incremental acquisition of rights as attachment increases; by a contingent rights structure; by rules addressing legitimate security concerns and the duties of refugees; and by the limitation of obligations to the duration of risk in the refugee's country of origin. In reality, and despite the treaty-based regime's focus on ensuring refugee self-reliance by the granting to them of rights focused on self-reliance, most of the world's refugees live either in camps where they have little if any autonomy or, if outside camps, face the ongoing risk of summary detention or deportation. More than 80% of refugees live in the less developed world and spend an average of nearly 20 years in a first country of refuge without access to either resettlement or the ability safely to repatriate. This discrepancy between principle and the reality for most refugees might be explained by conflicts with other priorities of receiving states; limitations on UNHCR's ability as an institution effectively to ensure compliance with treaty-based rules; and the absence of convincing evidence of refugees' net economic contributions to host societies.
Topic:: Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Treaties and Agreements

39341. Elections en Tunisie: vieilles blessures, nouvelles craintes

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Le duel qui oppose le président sortant Moncef Marzouki à l'ancien chef de gouvernement Béji Caïd Essebsi dans le cadre du second tour de la présidentielle, prévu le 21 décembre 2014, révèle les lignes de fracture de la société tunisienne que les élites politiques croyaient avoir résorbées grâce à leur sens du consensus et du compromis. La cartographie électorale des législatives et du premier tour montre une Tunisie divisée entre un Nord en grande partie pro-Essebsi et son parti Nida Tounes, et un Sud majoritairement pro-Marzouki et favorable au parti islamiste An-Nahda. Afin d'éviter que les craintes réciproques finissent par conduire à des violences, le vainqueur de ce premier scrutin présidentiel libre et concurrentiel devra d'abord reconnaitre les inquiétudes de l'électorat du vaincu. Pouvoir exécutif et législatif devront s'engager de concert à traiter la question du déséquilibre régional et prévenir les risques de blocage institutionnel ou de répression des oppositions.
Topic:: Democratization
Political Geography:: Arabia

39342. South Sudan: Jonglei—"We Have Always Been at War"

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Jonglei state's combustible mix of armed political opposition, violent ethnic militias and dysfunctional political system were part of the tinder that led to the eruption of the civil war in South Sudan in late December 2013. Despite eleven months of peace talks, mediated by the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), the war threatens to reintensify in the coming weeks. The negotiations do not reflect the diversity of armed groups and interests in South Sudan and the region, most of which are nominally allied with either President Salva Kiir's government or former Vice President Riek Machar's Sudan Peoples' Liberation Movement/Army-In Opposition (SPLM/ A-IO). The constellation of regional and South Sudanese armed groups in Jonglei is emblematic of the regional, national and local challenges to peace and the pattern of a war that cannot be resolved by engaging only two of the nearly two-dozen armed groups in the country and ignoring those that have not yet engaged in the fight.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Political Violence, Governance, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Sudan

39343. In the Shadow of the Storm: Getting recovery right one year after typhoon Haiyan

Author:: Alison Kent
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: For many who survived typhoon Haiyan's brutal winds and deadly storm surge, their struggles continue one year later . As recovery efforts progress , a critical opportunity exists to ensure that these communities have the chance not only to rebuild their lives but to strengthen their resilience – to future disasters as well as to poverty.
Political Geography:: Philippines

39344. Can't Afford to Wait: Why Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation plans in Asia are still failing millions of people

Author:: Steph Cousins
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Climate-related disasters and food crises are devastating thousands of lives and holding back development across Asia. A year on from the devastating super-typhoon Haiyan in the Philippines, Oxfam calls for governments across Asia, backed by regional and global institutions and fair contributions from wealthy countries, to ramp up efforts to address these challenges. Without greater investment in climate and disaster-resilient development and more effective assistance for those at risk, super-typhoon Haiyan-scale disasters could fast become the norm, not the exception.
Topic:: Climate Change, Disaster Relief, Environment, Humanitarian Aid, and Natural Disasters
Political Geography:: Asia and Philippines

39345. Behind Closed Doors: The risk of denying women a voice in determining Afghanistan's future

Author:: Elizabeth Cameron and Jorrit Kamminga
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: As the Taliban regime fell in 2001 after six years of abuse and oppression, the international community made a promise to the women of Afghanistan, that it would never again abandon them. The protection of their rights, at least in part, became a key element to afterwards legitimize the war which followed. It is 13 years since Colin Powell, then- US Secretary of State, declared that, 'the rights of the women in Afghanistan will not be negotiable.' Now Afghan women are questioning what the future holds.
Topic:: Democratization, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Self Determination
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

39346. Breaking the Standoff: Post-2020 climate finance in the Paris agreement

Author:: Tim Gore, Simon Bradshaw, Annaka Carvalho, Kiri Hanks, and Jan Kowalzig
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Negotiations are currently under way to develop a new international climate change agreement that will cover all countries and curb global warming to below the internationally agreed limit of 2 degrees. The new agreement will be adopted at the United Nations Climate Change Conference – Conference of the Parties 21, or COP21 – to be held in Paris in November/December 2015, and will be implemented from 2020.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Economics, and Environment

39347. Impacto De La Roya Del Café

Author:: Alberto Vargas
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Muchas de las comunidades de El Salvador tienen una baja resiliencia (su capacidad de enfrentar y recuperarse de los efectos de los desastres es muy limitada). Existen comunidades que a causa del cambio climático están enfrentando diversos eventos cada uno o dos años.
Topic:: Agriculture, Climate Change, Health, Human Welfare, and Food
Political Geography:: South America

39348. Resettlement of Refugees from Syria: Increased commitments needed from international community in Geneva

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: On 9 December 2014 UNHCR will convene a ministerial level pledging conference in Geneva on resettlement and other forms of humanitarian admission for refugees from Syria.
Topic:: Human Rights and Humanitarian Aid
Political Geography:: Middle East and Syria

39349. Ebola and the Private Sector: Bolstering the response and West African economies

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa is unprecedented. The increasing number of cases, the poor health infrastructure, the shortage of skills, knowledge and personnel, and the fear surrounding the disease are proving a huge challenge to affected governments and to the international community as they battle to bring the epidemic under control.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, Health, Human Welfare, and Infectious Diseases
Political Geography:: Africa and West Africa

39350. A Long Way to Go: The Ebola response in West Africa at the sixty day mark

Author:: Debbie Hillier and Krista Riddley
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The international response to the Ebola epidemic is on the right path, but there is a long way to go. The UN's interim objective was to treat 70 percent of cases and to ensure that 70 percent of burials were done safely within 60 days, i.e. by 1 December 2014. Case numbers are stabilizing in Liberia and Guinea, but remain out of control in Sierra Leone – such that the targets for cases treated has not been met. The UN has not provided figures for what had been achieved by 1 December, but a previous sitrep on 21 November showed that only 13 percent of Ebola cases in Sierra Leone have been isolated, compared with 72 percent in Guinea.
Topic:: Disaster Relief, Human Welfare, Infectious Diseases, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: Africa

39351. Quarantines in Sierra Leone: Putting people first in the Ebola crisis

Author:: Wairimu Munyinyi Wahome
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: In May 2014, initial reports were received of the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone. One month later, the president of Sierra Leone declared a public health state of emergency in a bid to contain the spread, limiting public gatherings. Since then, quarantine measures have been imposed, including self-quarantines informed by district and chiefdom bye-laws and government-imposed quarantines. In November 2014, standard operational procedures (SOPs) on the management of quarantines were released by the National Ebola Response Coordination (NERC) function to streamline quarantine operations across the country.
Topic:: Infectious Diseases and Health Care Policy

39352. Steps Towards a Living Wage in Global Supply Chains

Author:: Rachel Wilshaw
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Almost a century after the ILO Constitution recognized the need for workers to earn a living wage, the question of whether wages enable workers to meet their needs and those of their families has gained renewed momentum. Much has been written on the issue, but very little that assesses how companies are implementing it, and the outcomes.
Topic:: Economics, Human Welfare, and Labor Issues

39353. Seven Million Lives Saved: Under-5 Mortality Since the Launch of the Millennium Development Goals

Author:: John McArthur
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: To what extent have developing countries' patterns in reducing under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) changed since the advent of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)? This paper investigates that question across multiple time horizons, with attention to the fact that countries' progress had already begun to accelerate during the late 1990s compared to the early 1990s. The paper gives special consideration to countries the MDGs were primarily intended to support, including initially “Off Track” and low-income countries. Although only 21 percent of originally Off Track countries and 34 percent of originally low-income countries are now on a path to achieve the MDG target by 2015, at least 80 percent of each group has seen accelerated progress since 2001. Approximately 90 percent of countries in sub-Saharan Africa have accelerated. Most importantly, regression analysis indicates that cross-country trends since 2000 differ considerably from previous decades. The years since the launch of the MDGs include the first extended period in at least four decades during which rates of U5MR decline have not been negatively correlated with U5MR levels. Compared to a conservative counterfactual trend from 1996 to 2001, at least 7.5 million additional children's lives are estimated to have been saved between 2002 and 2013. The results suggest that much of the greatest structural progress has been achieved by countries not likely to achieve the formal MDG targets, even if their progress might be linked to the pursuit of those targets. Implications are considered for setting U5MR targets through to 2030.
Topic:: Development, Health, Human Welfare, and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: Africa

39354. Fertilizing Growth: Agricultural Inputs and Their Effects in Economic Development

Author:: John McArthur and Gordon C. McCord
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: This paper uses cross-country panel data to estimate the agronomic inputs that lead to cereal yield improvements and the consequences for developing countries' processes of structural change. The results suggest a clear role for fertilizer, modern seeds and water in boosting yields. It then estimates empirical links in developing economies between increased agricultural yields and economic growth; in particular, the spillover effect from yield growth to declines of labor share in agriculture and increases of non-agricultural value added per capita. The identification strategy for the effect of fertilizer includes a novel instrumental variable that exploits variation in global fertilizer price, interacted with the inverse distance between each country's agriculturally weighted centroid and the nearest nitrogen fertilizer production facility. Results suggest that a half ton increase in staple yields (equal to the within-country standard deviation) generates a 13 to 20 percent higher GDP per capita, a 3.3 to 3.9 percentage point lower labor share in agriculture five years later, and approximately 20 percent higher non-agricultural value added per worker a decade later. The results suggest a strong role for agricultural productivity as a driver of structural change.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, and Labor Issues

39355. Happy Neighbors Are Good For You, Wealthy Ones Are Not: Some Insights From a First Study of Well-Being in Mongolia

Author:: Carol Graham, Tuugi Chuluun, and Sarandavaa Myanganbuu
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: We conducted the first extensive study of well-being in Mongolia, a country that has experienced a dramatic transition in both its economy and polity in recent decades. We found that most of the standard determinants of well-being were no different in Mongolia than they are for most countries in the world, with individual income, health, marital status and exercise all positively associated with life satisfaction; the same variables had positive but weaker correlations with our hedonic well-being measure. As in many other contexts, we found that, controlling for individual income, average community income was negatively correlated with life satisfaction, although not with hedonic well-being. This is not surprising, as comparison effects are more likely to influence overall life evaluations than they are daily (or weekly) moods and experience. In contrast, average community-level well-being—in both evaluative and hedonic dimensions—was positively associated with individual well-being. While being around wealthier people may generate envy among some, being around happier people has positive externalities (except, perhaps, for the very unhappy). Thus, at least in Mongolia, wealthier neighbors are not necessarily g ood for you, but happier ones surely are.
Topic:: Human Welfare
Political Geography:: Mongolia

39356. Adjusting Assistance to the 21st Century: A Revised Agenda for Foreign Assistance Reform

Author:: George Ingram
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The Brookings Institution
Abstract:: A decade of reform of U.S. development assistance programs has brought significant and important improvement in the nature and delivery of U.S. assistance. But the 21st century world is witnessing constant change in development. More developing countries are ascending to middle income status and gaining the capability, resources, and desire to finance and direct their own development. The rapid expansion of private capital flows, remittances, and domestic resources has significantly reduced the relative role of donor assistance in financing development. Donors are becoming more numerous and varied. There is growing recognition that the private sector, both nationally and internationally, is an indispensable component of sustainable development.
Topic:: Development, Foreign Aid, and Reform
Political Geography:: United States

39357. Understanding Mandis: Market Towns and the Dynamics of India's Rural and Urban Transformations

Author:: Devesh Kapur and Mekhala Krishnamurthy
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for the Advanced Study of India
Abstract:: Mandis or physical, primary agricultural markets are old and ubiquitous institutions of economic life in many parts of India. Wherever they form, they are usually dense sites of economic, social and political activity, connecting and shaping the relations between town and countryside, and between local markets for commodities and larger, national and global circuits of capital and commerce. According to available estimates, there are over 7500 regulated agricultural markets in India today, operating under different state level acts covering a huge variety of notified agricultural produce.
Topic:: Agriculture, Emerging Markets, and Food
Political Geography:: India and Asia

39358. Why Europe must stop outsourcing its security

Author:: Richard Gowan and Nick Witney
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: The EU claims to be in the business of “crisis management” – ready if need be to make “robust” military interventions to control conflict, especially in its neighbourhood. In practice, it now prefers to “outsource” such interventions to others, notably the United Nations and African Union (AU), limiting itself to supporting roles. This is not just shabby; it also saps Europe's influence in a world in which European interests and values are increasingly contested. And it places too great a burden on organisations such as the UN and AU. Unless the EU rediscovers a willingness to bear the costs and risks of military operations to control conflict, Europe can expect everintensifying refugee pressure on its southern borders. Although military force will not help in Ukraine or the turmoil of the Middle East, the EU could make a big difference if it were prepared to do more in crisis management in Africa. The EU could contribute to or complement UN or AU efforts in a variety of ways. Responding to the crisis in UN peacekeeping, Ban Kimoon has ordered a review. New EU High Representative Federica Mogherini should do the same, involving outside experts in a stock-take of international efforts to control conflict to Europe's south and commissioning specific proposals to get the EU back to playing a properly responsible security role.
Topic:: Human Welfare, Humanitarian Aid, United Nations, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:: Africa, Europe, Ukraine, and Middle East

39359. If Not Now, When? Ending Violence Against the World's Children

Author:: David Steven
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center on International Cooperation
Abstract:: The world faces old and new security challenges that are more complex than our multilateral and national institutions are currently capable of managing. International cooperation is ever more necessary in meeting these challenges. The NYU Center on International Cooperation (CIC) works to enhance international responses to conflict, insecurity, and scarcity through applied research and direct engagement with multilateral institutions and the wider policy community.
Topic:: Development, Human Rights, Human Welfare, and Children

39360. Mitigating the Security Risks Posed by a Near-Nuclear Iran

Author:: Matthew Kroenig
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: US President Barack Obama has called the international dispute over Iran's advanced nuclear program "one of the leading security challenges of our time." Fitting for a problem of this magnitude, analysts have thoroughly examined the major policy options for addressing the challenge, including most notably, diplomacy, containment, and military strikes. Lost in this focus on the broad policy options to prevent or deal with a nuclear-armed Iran, however, is the acknowledgement that Iran already possesses a latent nuclear weapons capability and that this capability poses several threats to international peace and security at present. Moreover, it is almost certain that Iran will retain such a capability in the short to medium term regardless of how the nuclear diplomacy progresses-and even if the international community and Iran agree to a "comprehensive" nuclear deal. Rather than an exclusive focus on broad strategies for preventing a nuclear-armed Iran, therefore, it would also be prudent to identify and mitigate against the challenges posed by Iran's extant latent nuclear capability, a capability that will likely remain in place even if Washington's policy of prevention is successful.
Topic:: Nuclear Weapons and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:: Iran

39361. The Die Is Cast: Confronting Russian Aggression in Eastern Europe

Author:: Christopher Musselman
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The Ukraine crisis demonstrates that European security can no longer be taken for granted and that NATO and the broader transatlantic community are struggling to address emerging security challenges. Whether Russia is classified revanchist, expanding its sphere of influence, or seeking to create regional hegemony, Putin's actions in both Crimea and eastern Ukraine are a stark reminder that the era of geopolitical competition in Europe is far from over. The transatlantic community must be ready to deal with similar challenges in the decades ahead.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

39362. The Case for a New Federalism in Libya

Author:: Karim Mezran and Mohamed Eljarh
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: The French intellectual Jean Baudrillard once said, “It is always the same: once you are liberated, you are forced to ask who you are.” In the case of Libya, this question should have been at the center of every political initiative immediately following the collapse of Muammar Qaddafi's regime. Libya's new leadership had the opportunity to convene a national dialogue in an effort to explore questions of national identity and a new vision for a national mission. Unfortunately, the Libyan elites who emerged from the 2011 civil war did not make national dialogue a priority, opting to appease local forces—armed and political—rather than to undertake the difficult but critical task of nation-building.
Topic:: Security, Political Violence, and Governance
Political Geography:: Africa and Libya

39363. Completing Europe – From the North-South Corridor to Energy, Transportation, and Telecommunications Union

Author:: Atlantic Council and CEEP
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Atlantic Council
Abstract:: One of the greatest successes of our new century has been the progress made in unifying Europe. The accession of Central Europe's countries to the European Union (EU) has contributed to the end of division that wrought confrontations and conflicts. Yet this task is far from finished. Europe's economic woes, as well as new security challenges along the Union's eastern border add to the urgency of completing and consolidating the European integration project as part of our transatlantic vision of a Europe whole, free, and at peace.
Topic:: Economics, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, and Infrastructure
Political Geography:: Europe and Central Europe

39364. Assessing the Asia-Pacific Rebalance

Author:: Michael J. Green, David J. Berteau, and Zack Cooper
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Three years have passed since President Barack Obama laid the groundwork for the U.S. rebalance to the Asia Pacific region. Support for the rebalance strategy is substantial, but questions remain about its implementation. As China's power grows and its assertive- ness in regional disputes increases, U.S. allies and partners continue to rely on the United States to help reinforce regional security. In this increasingly tense Asia Pacific security environment, it is critical that regional allies, partners, and competitors recognize and acknowledge that the United States is a Pacific power with the ability to carry out its rebalance strategy.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation and Hegemony
Political Geography:: United States, China, and Asia

39365. Leveraging Global Value Chains for a Federated Approach to Defense

Author:: David J. Berteau, Scott Miller, Ryan Crotty, and Paul Nadeau
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: CSIS launched the Federated Defense Project to assess and recommend concrete ways for the United States and its partners to integrate their defense capabilities in support of shared interests. Rather than creating interdependencies that would hinder autonomous action or bind partners to commitments to which they only share a tangential interest, the federated defense strategy builds on the natural interests of allies and partners to develop closer working ties to the United States and one another in order to manage the challenges posed by constrained resources and a daunting geostrategic environment. Buttressing any form of federated defense must be a set of bottom-up, organic interactions within the private sector to develop the capabilities that will underpin these security architectures. The expansion of business-to-business relationships among providers of platforms, supplies, and services to the network of trusted partners and allies is a key building block in ensuring adequate capabilities development, integration, and interoperability. To date, this interaction has occurred despite the many barriers that exist to their success. A federated approach will seek to enable this cooperation and lower these barriers, leading to greater cooperation, collaboration, and integration through global value chains (GVCs). Addressing the findings below is essential to the successful execution of a federated approach to defense.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Privatization, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: United States

39366. U.S. Support Essential to Ambitious Global Introduction of Inactivated Polio Vaccine

Author:: Nellie Bristol
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Earlier this fall, Nepal became the first low - income country to introduce the inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) into its immunization system. Many more countries will have to follow suit to meet the ambitious deadlines laid out in the Global Polio Eradication Initiative's (GPEI) Polio Eradication Endgame Strategic Plan 2013 – 2018. The plan calls for global introduction of at least one dose of IPV into routine childhood immunization schedules followed by eventual withdrawal of the widely used oral polio vaccine (OPV). Currently, 75 mostly high - and middle - income countries use the injectable IPV in their immunization systems, leaving 119 that need to do so by the end of 2015 to keep with the plan's schedule.
Topic:: Health and Health Care Policy
Political Geography:: Asia and Nepal

39367. Iran, Evolving Threats, and Strategic Partnerships in the Gulf

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: Internal ethnic and sectarian tensions, civil conflict, continued instability, failed governance and economy. Syrian civil war. Iraq, Lebanon, “Shi'ite crescent.” Sectarian warfare and struggle for future of Islam through and outside region. Sunni on Sunni and vs. Shi'ite struggles Terrorism, insurgency, civil conflict linked to outside state and non-state actors. Wars of influence and intimidation Asymmetric conflicts escalating to conventional conflicts. Major “conventional” conflict threats: Iran-Arab Gulf, Arab-Israeli, etc. Economic warfare: sanctions, “close the Gulf,” etc. Missile and long-range rocket warfare Proliferation, preventive strikes, containment, nuclear arms race, extended deterrence, “weapons of mass effectiveness”.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, International Security, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Iraq, Iran, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

39368. The Metrics of Terrorism and Instability in Pakistan

Author:: Anthony H. Cordesman and Sam Khazai
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:: The total number of terrorist attacks reported in Pakistan increased 36.8 percent between 2012 and 2013. Fatalities increased 25.3 percent and injuries increased 36.9 percent. No specific perpetrator organization was identified for 86.2 percent of all attacks in Pakistan. Of the remaining attacks, nearly half (49%) were carried out by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). Attacks attributed to the TTP killed more than 550 and wounded more than 1,200 in 2013. Twenty other groups, including a number of Baloch nationalist groups such as the Baloch Republican Army, the Baloch Liberation Army, the Baloch Liberation Front, and the Baloch Liberation Tigers, carried out attacks in Pakistan, particularly in Balochistan. More than 37 percent of all attacks in Pakistan took place in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, 28.4 percent took place in Balochistan, and 21.2 percent took place in Sindh province. The proportion of attacks in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) decreased from 19.6 percent in 2012 to 9.4 percent in 2013. The most frequently attacked types of targets in Pakistan were consistent with global patterns. More than 22 percent of all attacks primarily targeted private citizens and property, more than 17 percent primarily targeted the police, and more than 11 percent primarily targeted general (non-diplomatic) government entities. However, these three types of targets accounted for a smaller proportion of attacks in Pakistan (51.1%) than they did globally (61.7%). Instead, terrorist attacks in Pakistan were almost twice as likely to target educational institutions (6.4%) and more than three times as likely to target violent political parties (4.4%), organizations that have at times engaged in both electoral politics and terrorist violence.
Topic:: Political Violence, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:: Pakistan and Asia

39369. Understanding Differences in Growth Performance in Latin America and Developing Countries between the Asian and Global Financial Crises

Author:: Roberto Alvarez and José De Gregorio
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Latin American performance during the global financial crisis was unprecedented. Many developing and emerging countries successfully weathered the worst crisis since the Great Depression. Was it good luck? Was it good policies? In this paper we compare growth during the Asian and global financial crises and find that a looser monetary policy played an important role in mitigating crisis. We also find that higher private credit, more financial openness, less trade openness, and greater exchange rate intervention worsened economic performance. Our analysis of Latin American countries confirms that effective macroeconomic management was key to good economic performance. Finally, we present evidence from a sample of 31 emerging markets that high terms of trade had a positive impact on resilience.
Topic:: Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Monetary Policy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:: Asia and Latin America

39370. An Economic Strategy to Save Ukraine

Author:: Anders Åslund
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: Ukraine has experienced a year of unprecedented political, economic, and military turmoil. The combination of Russian military aggression in the east and a legacy of destructive policies leading to pervasive corruption has plunged the country into an existential crisis. The West, meanwhile, has been largely paralyzed with uncertainty over how to assist Ukraine without reviving Cold War hostilities. Yet all is not lost for Ukraine. A tenuous ceasefire, along with the successful elections of President Petro Poroshenko in May and a new parliament in October offer an opportunity for economic reform. If the current ceasefire in the east holds, Ukraine has a great opportunity to break out of its vicious circle of economic underperformance. Yet, the window of opportunity is likely to be brief. The new government will have to act fast and hard on many fronts to succeed.
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Security, Economics, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

39371. Rapid Growth in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies: Now and Forever?

Author:: Giang Ho and Paolo Mauro
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Peterson Institute for International Economics
Abstract:: With economic growth in advanced economies still lackluster or elusive, much hope for world prosperity rests on projections of continued strength in developing and emerging economies. On average, the economic growth rate in these economies was roughly twice as high—on an unweighted per capita basis—as in the advanced economies during the past decade. According to the forecasts analyzed in this Policy Brief, this superior performance is projected to extend into the next two decades.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Political Economy

39372. Avrupa'da Erken Dönem Sosyalist Teori ve İşçi Hareketleri (1830-1840)

Author:: Ateş Uslu
Publication Date:: 01-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Avrupa'da 1830'lu yıllarda sosyalist düşünce, işçi hareketleri ve komplocu/devrimci hareketler entelektüel ve siyasi yaşamın önemli bileşenleridir. Marx ve Engels dönemin teorisyenlerinden ve siyasi liderlerinden doğrudan ya da dolaylı olarak etkilenmiş, bazı eserlerinde bunlarla polemiğe girmiş - lerdir. Bu yazıda 1830'lu yıllarda sosyalist düşüncenin, işçi hareketlerinin ve devrimci hareketlerin gelişiminin temel dinamiklerinin incelenmesi hedef - lenmektedir. İlk bölüm Büyük Britanya'da 1830'lu yılların sınai gelişiminin toplumsal tarihte yaptığı etkiler, Çartist hareketin oluşumu ve Owen'cı hareketin 1830'lu yıllardaki dönüşümleri ele alınacaktır. İkinci bölüm 1830'lu yıllarda Fransa'da sosyalist düşüncenin çeşitlenmesine ve işçi hareketinin gelişimine ayrılmıştır. Makalenin bütününde sanayi kapitalizminin yaptığı hamleler ile kitle hareketlerinin önem kazanması arasındaki bağıntıya dikkat çekilmiştir. Ütopyacı düşüncenin 1830'lu yıllarda önemini koruması ve aynı dönemde felsefe ve sosyalist düşünce akımları arasında yoğun bir ilişkinin kurulmaya başlanması da makalede vurgulanan konular arasındadır. Çalış - manın bütününde sosyalizmin gelişiminin temel dinamiklerinin, 1830'lu yıllarınsosyal-ekonomik ve siyasal gelişmeleriyle bağlantısı içinde incelenmesi hedeflenm ektedir.

39373. Ölüm ve Zulmün Üç Hali: Birinci Dünya Savaşı'nda Bitlis Cephesi

Author:: Adem Ölmez
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Institution:: Sakarya University (SAU)
Abstract:: Bu makalede Birinci Dünya Savaşı'nda Bitlis'te Müslümanların ve Erme - nilerin çektiği sıkıntılar, üç aşama/hal halinde anlatılmaktadır. Birinci aşa - ma, Rusların ilk taarruzları sırasında Müslümanlara yaptıkları katliamlardır. İkinci aşama, 1915 ortalarında yerli Ermenilerin çektiği sıkıntılardır. Bilin - diği gibi, Rusların geri çekilmesi üzerine bölgedeki Ermeniler korunmasız kaldılar. Bu süreçte Müslümanların saldırılarına maruz kaldılar ve göçe zor - landılar. Üçüncü hal ise, 1916 başlarında Rusların yeniden saldırıya geçme - leriyle başladı. 1916 başlarından itibaren Bitlis üzerinden güneye ilerlemeyi planladılar; ancak planları istedikleri gibi gitmedi. Bitlis'te düzenli ordularla milis güçlerinin ittifak ettiği büyük bir direnişle karşılaştılar. Rus-Ermeni bir - likleri Bitlis'i geçebilmek için büyük katliamlar yaptılar. Müslüman ahalinin yaşadığı yerlerde kadın, çocuk ve ihtiyarlardan oluşan grupları toplu olarak katlettiler. Rus Ermeni kuvvetleri yeniden Müslüman ahaliye zulmetmeye başladılar. Bu süreç Rusya'da Bolşevik devriminin belirtilerinin görülmeye başlamasına kadar devam etti. Ermenilerin Ruslarla birlikte hareket ederek eski komşuları olan Müslümanlara zulmetmesi Müslümanlar arasında Er - menilere karşı büyük nefretlerin oluşmasına zemin hazırladı. Daha sonraki olaylarda bu nefretlerin büyük payı oldu.

39374. European Integration, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Stability in the Western Balkans: A New Strategy

Author:: Aydın Babuna
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Perceptions
Institution:: Center for Strategic Research (CSR)
Abstract:: The February 2014 protests in Bosnia- Herzegovina have shown clearly that Bosnia- Herzegovina is still- 20 years after the signing of the Dayton Accords- the key country for security in the Western Balkans. These protests have also shown the limits of the influence of EU policies in the region, and have again sparked local and international discussions about the future role of the international community in general, and the EU in particular. Besides the discussion about quick and large-scale change to the Dayton Constitution, some observers and students of Balkan politics have pointed to the need for partial reforms, while others favour the idea that the international community should stop meddling in Bosnian affairs. The early reactions of EU officials to the events in Bosnia-Herzegovina have prioritised socio-economic measures rather than constitutional reforms. The following article stresses the importance of an increased EU commitment to Bosnia-Herzegovina under a revised and comprehensive strategy. The new strategy should include improving the economy as one of its priorities; however, the EU should also increase its efforts for constitutional reforms and assume more responsibility to make the Bosnian state functional. The article also highlights that recent events in Bosnia-Herzegovina have illustrated the urgency for a more decisive enlargement policy towards the Western Balkans and argues that the integration of the Western Balkans and Turkey with the EU are not rival processes but complementary.The article first examines the Euro-Atlantic integration of the Balkans in the post-Dayton period and then makes suggestions to improve security and stability in the Western Balkans.
Political Geography:: Europe

39375. Next Steps to Combat Star Creep: The Costs of a Top Heavy Military

Author:: Ben Freeman
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Third Way
Abstract:: Following Third Way's release of Star Creep: The Costs of a Top Heavy Military , Congress tasked the Government Accountability Office (GAO) with figuring out exactly how much money this bloat costs taxpayers. DoD's answer to GAO: we don't know. According to the GAO Report, "The full cost to DOD...is unknown because complete cost data were not available." Additionally, despite not knowing the full cost of their Generals and Admirals and not having conducted an analysis of the number of top-commanders the military needs to fulfill military missions, Pentagon officials told GAO they wanted more. In an era of constrained budgets it's simply unacceptable for the Pentagon to grow the back office while the front-lines shrink. Thus, Third Way now recommends that Congress require the Pentagon to: Conduct a comprehensive review of requirements for Generals and Admirals. Take the necessary steps to determine the full-cost to taxpayers of Generals and Admirals, as recommended by GAO.

39376. Making the Case: Dismissing the Major Critiques of Syria's Chemical Weapons Destruction

Author:: Mieke Eoyang and Ben Freeman
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Third Way
Abstract:: The F-35, or Joint Strike Fighter, is America’s next-generation manned fighter jet, but this $1.5 trillion program—the most expensive weapon program ever—has been plagued by costly delays and design challenges. There is a solution to the F-35 dilemma: slow down. The threats facing the U.S. today do not require that we rush the F-35 into production. We can save billions by further testing the aircraft. In this time of budget cutting and sequestration, the issue of F-35 spending is significant. Here’s how to talk about this weapon system—and how to fix it.
Political Geography:: Africa

39377. Making the Case: What are the Real Lessons of Benghazi?

Author:: Mieke Eoyang and Aki Peritz
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Third Way
Abstract:: It’s time to move beyond the partisan finger-pointing over the September 11, 2012 attack in Benghazi, Libya. Policymakers should instead consider pragmatic solutions to reduce the chances of such an attack occurring in the future. Here are four ways for policymakers to make this case: It’s time to stop the finger-pointing. We must protect our diplomats better. We must position rapid reaction teams better. We need to build better leadership at the State Department.
Political Geography:: Bangladesh

39378. What to Expect in the House Defense Authorization Bill

Author:: Mieke Eoyang and Ben Freeman
Publication Date:: 05-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Third Way
Abstract:: The House will soon consider the FY 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA). This memo provides a preview of the NDAA floor debate and highlights both good and bad elements in the Committee bill.

39379. US Reconstruction Aid for Afghanistan: The Dollars and Sense

Author:: Catherine Lutz and Sujaya Desai
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: The United States, and its allies, the UN, NGOs, and the World Bank, have injected billions of dollars into what is commonly termed the "reconstruction" of Afghanistan since the war began in 2001. This paper focuses on United States spending on aid in Afghanistan, describing the rationale government officials have given for the aid, what they have spent money on, who has profited from the contracts to provide aid, and what the consequences of that spending have been in terms of benefits to the people of Afghanistan or the United States. The central findings of this review of US government investigative reports and existing field-based scholarship are that reconstruction aid has been allocated primarily to re-arming and policing Afghanistan, with poor or even counterproductive outcomes in both security and other-than-security domains. Furthermore, US companies have been among the primary beneficiaries of this aid, despite widespread fraud, waste, and dysfunction. In contrast to a focus on human needs, and rather than rebuilding the basis of a modern state, reconstruction has been focused on furthering United States security interests. Reconstruction thus sets the foundation for continued violence and impoverishment in the years to come.
Topic:: Corruption, Foreign Aid, and World Bank
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

39380. What War Has Wrought in Afghan Women's Lives

Author:: Jennifer Heath
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: The “liberation” of Afghan women became a justification of the George W. Bush administration for the 2001 invasion of Afghanistan. Good intentions notwithstanding, Western feminists often painted a distorted portrait of absolutely helpless Afghan women buried alive in their burqas. One sad result of this black--‐and--‐white thinking, which overlooks the nuances and diversity of Afghan life and society, has been a severe curtailing of the quality, quantity, and endurance of whatever help Western women try to offer their Afghan sisters. This paper gives a historical overview of the realities of Afghan women's lives, contrasting these with common perceptions about Afghan women held by those outside Afghanistan – often misperceptions upon which millions of dollars of foreign aid have been spent. A description of Afghan women's social context touches on their views of the Taliban, women's political rights and empowerment throughout history, and women's access to healthcare and education. This paper argues that unless every step is taken with consideration for Afghan women's concerns, within the diverse contexts of their real lives, there can be no lasting peace. Any peace agreements must include clear commitments from all sides to respect and protect women's rights.
Topic:: Education, Gender Issues, Human Rights, and Political Activism
Political Geography:: Afghanistan

39381. Democratic Aspirations and Destabilizing Outcomes in Afghanistan

Author:: Norah Niland
Publication Date:: 11-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: The United States and its allies, in control of Afghanistan since October 2001, failed to support the development of an inclusive, legitimate and accountable political system. This paper examines how the imposition of an inappropriate model of democracy, the prioritization of American interests over those of Afghans, and a pattern of expedient political decisions have contributed to the destabilization of the country. The democracy and state-building model imposed on Afghanistan was stymied from the outset by critical foundational flaws. These include the return to power of discredited warlords reviled by most Afghans, the marginalization of particular groups including the remnants of the Taliban movement, and the concentration of power in an executive Presidency at the expense of a weak parliamentary structure. In 2014, along with the drawdown of US and NATO troops, Afghanistan's disputed election saga ended in a no-victor deal that effectively discarded the (as yet unknown) results of the ballot box. Once again, Washington politics reinforced the grip of a warlord-dominated elite on the machinery of the state and exposed the hollowness of the US-led and UN-supported state building project.
Topic:: Political Violence, Corruption, Democratization, and Fragile/Failed State
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States

39382. The Continuing Cost of the Iraq War: The Spread of Jihadi Groups Throughout the Region

Author:: Jessica Stern
Publication Date:: 02-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: The US invasion and subsequent occupation of Iraq, initiated in part to retaliate against Al Qaeda for the 9/11 strikes, had the effect of inspiring the creation of new Al Qaeda franchises. One such group is The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, formed as the Iraqi Al Qaeda affiliates spread into Syria. The formation of ISIS and the other Jihadi groups active in Syria and now spreading elsewhere through the region, together responsible for thousands of deaths, is one of the many costs of the Iraq war. These new groups - which formed and trained during the US occupation of Iraq - are impeding US foreign policy and preventing donor nations from providing humanitarian relief.
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, and Syria

39383. The Politics of History: India and China, 1949-1962

Author:: Nirupama Rao
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: When speaking of the politics of history involving the relationship between India and China in the period before the conflict of 1962, it is essential that we should have a sense of proportion about that history, distilling the meaning of the events that transpired and the key determinants in the evolving relationship between these two Asian powers in mid-century. How does that history connect to us, and how we shape our future? While there can be infinite meanings attached to what caused the war between India and China, what lessons are to be learnt about leadership, about public opinion, about logistical and military preparedness, about narrowing differences, and about negotiation?
Political Geography:: China, India, and Asia

39384. Socializing the European Semester? Economic Governance and Social Policy Coordination in Europe 2020

Author:: Jonathan Zeitlin and Bart Vanhercke
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: Since the onset of the Euro crisis in 2009-‐2010, the EU has introduced a series of far-‐reaching changes in its institutional architecture for economic and social governance. At the heart of this new architecture is the 'European Semester' of policy coordination, through which the Commission, the Council, and the European Council set priorities for the Union in the Annual Growth Survey (AGS), review National Reform Programmes (NRPs), and issue Country-‐Specific Recommendations (CSRs) to Member States, backed up in some cases by the possibility of financial sanctions. The European Semester brings together within a single annual policy coordination cycle a wide range of EU governance instruments with different legal bases and sanctioning authority, from the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure (MIP), and the Fiscal Treaty to the Europe 2020 Strategy and the Integrated Economic and Employment Policy Guidelines. This process in turn has given the EU institutions a more visible and intrusive role than ever before in scrutinizing and guiding national economic, fiscal, and social policies, especially but by no means exclusively within the Eurozone (Costamagna 2013; Chalmers 2012).
Political Geography:: Europe

39385. Albanian Local Government Finance on the Eve of Territorial Consolidation

Author:: Anthony Levitas
Publication Date:: 10-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: This paper reviews local government finances in Albania on the eve of the government's plan to decrease the number of municipalities from 373 to 61. The paper argues that without changes in the current intergovernmental finance system, territorial consolidation is unlikely to be accompanied by improved service delivery. This is because Albanian local governments are underfunded and receive less revenue than their counterparts in the region measured both as a percentage of total public revenues and of GDP. The current intergovernmental finance regime is also “over-equalizing” and is depriving the country's larger jurisdictions –particularly Tirana— of the resources they need to build network infrastructure. These problems cannot be resolved by the efficiency gains that should come from consolidation. Nor is better property tax collection fix likely to transform the situation. Instead, the national government needs to provide municipalities with new grants and transfers. One possibility here is to introduce income tax sharing, a reform that would also make it possible to anchor the equalization system in an objective measure of relative wealth. Eventually, income tax shares could be transformed into local surcharges.
Political Geography:: Albania and Tirana

39386. Collective Reputation and the Dynamics of Statistical Discrimination

Author:: Young-Chul Kim and Glenn C. Loury
Publication Date:: 04-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:: Economists have developed theoretical models identifying self-fulfilling expectations as an important source of statistical discrimination practices in labor markets (Arrow, 1973). The static models dominating the literature of statistical discrimination, however, may leave the false impression that a bad equilibrium is as fragile as a "bubble" and can burst at any moment when expectations flip. Such models thus understate the adversity that disadvantaged groups face in seeking to escape bad equilibria. By developing a dynamic version of a statistical discrimination model based on Coate and Loury's (1993) original setup, we clarify the limits of expectations-related fragility. We show that when a group is strongly affected by negative reputational externalities, the group cannot escape a low skill investment trap, regardless of how expectations are formed. By examining the evolution of stereotypes in this way, we also provide new insights into egalitarian policies.

39387. Coping With Success Against ISIS

Author:: James F. Jeffrey
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:: Although Washington should have no illusions about resolving the region's wider problems, it can build on early successes against ISIS by making the commitments needed to fully defeat the group in Iraq and Syria, including a modest, enduring U.S. military presence.
Political Geography:: United States, Iraq, Washington, and Syria

39388. The Day after Tomorrow: Colombia's FARC and the End of the Conflict

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: As a final peace accord with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) nears, negotiators face an elaborate juggling act if they are to lay out a sustainable path for guerrilla fighters to disarm and reintegrate into civilian life. A viable transition architecture not only needs to be credible in the eyes of FARC but must also reassure a society that remains deeply unconvinced of the group's willingness to lay down its arms, cut its links with organised crime and play by the rules of democracy. The failure of disarmament and reintegration would at best delay the implementation of reforms already agreed at the Havana talks since 2012. At worst, it could plunge the entire agreement into a downward spiral of renewed violence and eroding political support. Strong internal and external guarantees are needed to carry the process through a probably tumultuous and volatile period ahead. There is a lot that can go wrong. Most of the 7,000 or so combatants, and three times that number in support networks, are concentrated in peripheral zones with little civilian state presence and infrastructure. Some guerrilla fronts are involved in the drug economy and illegal mining. In most regions FARC operates in proximity to the National Liberation Army (ELN), Colombia's second guerrilla group, or other illegal armed groups, exposing its members to security threats and an array of options for rearmament, recruitment and defiance. Major doubts linger about the military's commitment to the peace process, and its readiness to take the steps necessary to end the conflict. Political violence has subsided from the paramilitary heyday but could grow again, and FARC has not forgotten the thousands of killings that decimated the Patriotic Union (UP), a party it created as part of peace talks in the 1980s. And after decades of conflict with a rising civilian toll and negotiation efforts that ended in bitter failure, the parties are feeling their way forward amid deep mutual distrust and strong political opposition. None of these problems has a perfect short-term fix. But the starting position is not all bad. Colombia can tap into three decades of experience in reintegrating members of illegal armed groups and it has more financial and human resources than most post-conflict countries. FARC's command and control structures are in decent shape and guerrilla leaders have a strong interest in a successful transition. The Havana agenda, which alongside the “end of the conflict” includes rural development, political reintegration, transitional justice and the fight against illicit drugs, is, at least on paper, broad enough to embed the reintegration of FARC into a long-term peace-building strategy, particularly focused on the most affected territories. Finally, in sharp contrast to the paramilitary demobilisation, the region and the wider international community are strongly supportive. Negotiators need to agree on a reintegration offer that allows FARC to close ranks behind a transition process riddled with uncertainty and ambiguity. Given its deep-seated distrust toward the state, the best way to achieve this is, probably, to give FARC a stake in reintegration, capitalising on its cohesion. This would minimise the risk that FARC could split over the transition. But the parties must also be aware of and care-fully manage the drawbacks to such a solution. To make a collective reintegration model palatable to a society disinclined to be generous to FARC and sceptical of its true intentions, negotiators should agree on strong measures of accountability, over sight and transparency. They also need to promote local transitional justice to avoid an intensification of communal tensions following the arrival of FARC combatants. Such a long-term reintegration offer would probably facilitate the fraught negotiations over the conditions under which FARC is willing to abandon the conflict early on in the transition. A bilateral ceasefire needs to go into effect immediately after a final accord has been signed. This will require military de-escalation well ahead of that, but a formal ceasefire will only be sustainable once FARC's forces have been concentrated in assembly zones. After the agreement has been ratified, measures for “leaving weapons behind” (or disarmament) should begin. These are irreversible, risky steps, and convincing the guerrillas to take the plunge will not be made easier by the government's refusal to negotiate broader changes to the security forces. But the shared interest in a stable post-conflict period should provide sufficient space to hammer out a workable solution. Alongside security safeguards and interim measures to stabilise territories with FARC presence, this should include early progress in implementing key elements of the peace agreement and the establishment of a joint follow-up committee to ensure that the accords will be honoured after disarmament has been completed. Implementing the agreements will largely be the responsibility of the government and FARC. But in Colombia's sharply polarised environment, international actors will have to play a crucial role. An international, civilian-led mission should be invited to monitor and verify the ceasefire and disarmament. For such monitoring to be successful, the mission needs to have the necessary autonomy from the parties and the technical as well as the political capacity to deal with the predictable setbacks and disputes. Beyond that, international actors should remain engaged by providing high-level implementation guarantees, political support for contentious reforms, including of the security sector, and long-term financial commitment. None of the elements needed to stabilise the immediate post-conflict period is entirely new in the Colombian context, but jointly they will break the mould of previous disarmament and reintegration programs. Flexibility and determination from the negotiators will be needed, alongside renewed government efforts to boost social ownership of the peace process, in particularin conflict regions. Previous transitions have faltered over high levels of violence, public indifference and timid international involvement. A bolder and faster response is needed this time to set Colombia on an irreversible path toward peace.
Political Geography:: Colombia

39389. Effective Governance in Challenging Environments

Author:: Mireille Affa'a Mindzie, George Mukundi Wachira, and Lucy Dunderdale
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: International Peace Institute
Abstract:: The “Africa rising” narrative has gained traction in recent years. Yet a very important question remains: who is rising? While statistics point to a continent whose fortunes have improved, many African citizens remain at the margins of socioeconomic development. In what has been termed growth without transformative development, there is a heightened focus among African states on translating promising statistics into better livelihoods for citizens. Citizens' uprisings in North Africa and in Burkina Faso provide a fresh reminder of the danger in touting impressive economic growth statistics while the majority of a country's population remains excluded from democratic governance processes and development. It is also widely believed that development failures and governance deficits lie “at the heart of Africa's violent conflicts.” Africa will only achieve its full potential and live up to the Africa rising narrative if it can strengthen its systems of governance; promote inclusive, equitable, and participatory development; and embed a culture of democracy and peace.
Political Geography:: Africa and North Africa

39390. The Central African Republic's Hidden Conflict

Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Crisis Group
Abstract:: Alors que la communauté internationale et le gouvernement de transition ont le re- gard braqué sur la capitale, Bangui, une bonne partie du monde rural, notamment à l'ouest et au centre de la République centrafricaine (RCA), est devenue un terroir de violence. La lutte qui oppose les combattant s de l'ex-Seleka et les milices anti-balaka a conduit à une recrudescence des affrontements entre communautés d'éleveurs et d'agriculteurs depuis 2013. Ces affrontement s forment maintenant un conflit dans le conflit loin des yeux des acteurs internationa ux et du gouvernement de transition et déstabilisent davantage la Centrafrique. A l'aube d'une nouvelle saison de transhu- mance qui risque d'intensifier la guérilla rurale en cours, les acteurs internationaux et le gouvernement de transition doivent impérativement prendre en compte cette dimension de la crise dans leur stratégie de stabilisation et prévenir les risques im- médiats de violence entre communautés d'éleveurs et d'agriculteur

39391. State Terrorism and Resistance in Kerdasa: Battle Zone Report

Author:: Sherif Mohy El Deen
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: These two papers are the result of field investigations into the bloody events that have erupted in the region of Kerdasa on the outskirts of Cairo and in the Sinai peninsula in late 2013. The papers observe the mechanisms by which the Egyptian security forces are dealing with the protests of the citizens there, and shed light on their continuing activities and psychological repression more than two years after the outbreak of the revolution. This repression continues despite talk of the need to change the security institutions and the essential challenge of changing the relationship between the state and its citizens to allow for the construction of a democratic foundation.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Middle East

39392. Judging the Judges - The present crisis facing the Egyptian judiciary

Author:: Ibrahim El-Houdaiby
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: With the charges against former President Mubarak thrown out of court - the Egyptian judiciary is being both praised and condemned by its citizens. "The crisis in the Egyptian judiciary is not that it needs legal and administrative “independence” from the executive… It’s that it needs to reform as a top priority… and emphasise its role of enforcing the law… and not permit anyone to act outside the context of the law or to act in a political manner that does not conform to the law."
Topic:: International Law
Political Geography:: Egypt

39393. From Apparatus State to War State

Author:: Dina El Khawaga
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: On July 7, 2014, following the government’s announcement of its plan to reduce the fuel subsidy, President Abd al Fattah al Sisi stated that “Egypt is in a state of war, many are hostile to it within and outside the country who do not want this country to be saved.
Topic:: War and International Affairs
Political Geography:: Egypt

39394. The Dynamics of Business Interest Group Advocacy on Economic Policymaking

Author:: Heba Abou Shnief
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: While the Arab awakening has impacted the political economies of Arab states differently, the message that state-business relations can no longer afford to rely on pre-existing models of business advocacy has reverberated across the region. Rent-seeking, cronyism, patronage, and state capture have long been―to varying degrees—all features of state-business relations in the Arab world. In post-uprising countries, the rise and fall of regimes, the adoption of new constitutions, the holding of theoretically more open legislative elections, the emergence new interest groups and a more scrutinizing public are all dynamics that are likely to influence the mechanics of policymaking, and with it, legacy systems of private sector advocacy. While it is still too early to ascertain with certainty precisely how older business advocacy models might evolve to adapt to new realities, or how soon such adaptations might occur, the dynamics have already changed—particularly with regards to ‘state capture’—where challenges to pre-existing networks have paralleled challenges to incumbent regimes. Combining a desk study with extensive field interviews with key persons from the business sector, government and civil society in both Egypt and Tunisia, the research makes a preliminary examination of the initial attempts at policy advocacy by business interest groups during the transitions. In doing so, a deeper understanding of how those dynamics seem to have changed thus far, as well as an initial assessment of whether or not state capture has, perhaps, come to an end in any of the countries studied is made. Finally, a brief set of policy recommendations are presented on ways and means of improving advocacy processes so that national business interests might be better reflected in the economic policymaking calculus.
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Middle East

39395. Reforming Syria’s Security Sector in the Post-Assad Era

Author:: Murhaf Jouejati
Publication Date:: 07-2014
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Arab Reform Initiative (ARI)
Abstract:: Under the Assad regime, Syria acquired a well-deserved reputation as a repressive mukhabarat state dominated by vast, overlapping internal security agencies that operated with near impunity, reporting directly to the president. Having presided over so much destruction and division, however, it is likely that the Assad regime will eventually be replaced by a government with a better claim to legitimacy. Security sector reform will be a key challenge for establishing the legitimacy of any post-Assad political order, but what would such a system look like and how could it be constructed?
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Syria

39396. The Islamic State

Author:: The Soufan Group
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: The self-styled Islamic State is an accident of history, emerging from multiple social, political, and economic tensions in the Middle East and beyond. It has challenged the territorial divisions imposed on the region following the collapse of the Ottoman Empire by carving out for itself a large area of territory. But ultimately, its impact will flow as much from its challenge to established concepts of government, national sovereignty, and national identity.”
Topic:: Terrorism, International Security, and Islamic State
Political Geography:: Global Focus

39397. Foreign Fighters in Syria

Author:: Richard Barrett
Publication Date:: 06-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Soufan Group
Abstract:: Over 12,000 fighters from at least 81 countries have joined the civil war in Syria, and the numbers continue to grow. Around 2,500 are from Western countries, including most members of the European Union, the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. There are also several hundred from Russia. But the great majority are from the Arab World. Most are fighting with rebel groups, and increasingly with the most extreme among them; but many are also fighting with the Government, or with ethnic or faith communities that are trying to protect themselves from both sides. A lot are young, often teenagers, and a fair percentage of those arriving from non-Muslim majority countries are converts to Islam. These and others who share their faith commonly express their motivation as a religious obligation to protect fellow Muslims from attack. This sense of duty is captured by their loose use of the word ‘jihad’.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Syria

39398. Croatia’s First Year of EU Membership : Have the Expectations been Fulfilled?

Author:: Višnja Samardžija
Publication Date:: 08-2014
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:: The first anniversary of Croatia’s membership in the European Union revealed the experiences of the first country from a new wave of EU enlargement which joined the Union in economically different circumstances and passed through a more demanding negotiation process. In contrast to the EU 2004/2007 enlargements, Croatia acceded to the EU as a single country and the accession did not cause stronger impact on the EU institutions or policies, due to the fact that Croatia is a small state with some 4.3 million citizens and some 56,600 square km land area.[1] One year of the EU membership is too short period for a thorough evaluation of its impacts. Still this initial experience could be considered as a lessons learned for the political elites, citizens and the countries of the Western Balkan region who might be next in line for EU accession. These are the main issues covered by this paper.
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Croatia

39399. Investing For Impact on Economic Mobility In The US: “Insights from Abroad: Impact Investing in Emerging Markets”

Author:: Alexander Pan and Randall Kempner
Publication Date:: 12-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: From our perspective at ANDE, we have seen impact investing become an increasingly important tool used to support small and growing businesses in the developing world that are capable of creating jobs, stimulating long-term economic growth, and generating social impact. However, impact investing is still very much an emerging tool. If it is to scale and become a viable solution to social issues in the United States, There are several key lessons from the international context that the industry should consider.
Topic:: International Political Economy and Social Movement
Political Geography:: America

39400. Metrics to Align Mission with Financial Performance: Tips from Practitioners

Author:: Mike McCreless
Publication Date:: 09-2014
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Aspen Institute
Abstract:: Social enterprises and impact investors, along with non-profits and foundations, have invested significant effort in designing metrics to monitor and evaluate impact. Yet these impact metrics do not create as much value as they could. Too often, impact metrics, and the people who manage them, are siloed in their own departments, databases, and discourses, one step removed from strategic and financial decision-making in their organizations
Topic:: International Political Economy
Political Geography:: Global Focus

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS