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  • Publication Date: 02-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: To many who followed the Bosnian war from abroad, Sarajevo symbolised Bosnia and Herzegovina's rich tradition of multi-culturalism and multi-ethnicity. While the Bosnian capital came under daily bombardment from Republika Srpska forces, its citizens of all faiths, Bosniacs, Serbs, Croats and others, suffered and survived together in the spirit of tolerance in which they had lived together for centuries. For multi-culturalism and multi-ethnicity to re-emerge in Bosnia after the war, this spirit must be rekindled in peace.
  • Topic: Demographics, Ethnic Conflict, Migration
  • Political Geography: Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: International Crisis Group
  • Abstract: In Bosnia's local elections on 13 and 14 September 1997, parties representing displaced Serbs from Croat-held Drvar, Bosansko Grahovo and Glamoc won either a majority or a plurality of council seats in these three municipalities in Canton 10 of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Since then, displaced Serbs have begun spontaneously moving back to their homes with the result that by mid-January, some 800 heads of households had returned to Drvar alone. Other displaced Serbs in Western Republika Srpska and in Brcko are monitoring the fortunes of these returnees closely. If Serbs are able to return to Drvar, this will free up housing in Republika Srpska for displaced Bosniacs and Croats. If, however, their return to Drvar is obstructed, displaced Serbs elsewhere will be discouraged from attempting to return to other Federation municipalities.
  • Topic: Ethnic Conflict, Migration, Politics
  • Political Geography: Bosnia, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Paolo Guerrieri
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
  • Abstract: This paper analyses changes in the trade patterns of Central/Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (FSU), and the potential role in the global/European division of labor of these transforming economies. In the reform period (1989–1995) trade pattern of Central and Eastern Europe has experienced significant changes. The most pronounced trend was the strong expansion of trade with the OECD countries, in particular with the European Union, whereas CMEA intraregional trade literally collapsed. This massive geographical reorientation of trade has determined also significant changes in the commodity composition of trade of CEE in the same period.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia
  • Author: Helen Wallace
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
  • Abstract: Two contending logics have so far dominated the debate on how the countries of central and eastern Europe (CEECs) might become part of a single European economic space. One is a common sense and incremental logic of economic liberalisation; and the other is the logic of conventional enlargement of the European Union (EU). The first incremental logic starts from the simple proposition that the establishment and sustenance of market economies in the CEECs requires their inclusion in a multilateral regime of trade and payments as quickly as possible, and their coverage by the kinds of market regulation mechanisms that have now been established in western Europe through the single European market (SEM). The second logic of EU enlargement requires the incumbent EU members to accept the accession of the CEECs (or some of them) as full family members. It would mean the application of the whole range of EU policies across pan-Europe.
  • Topic: International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Barry Eichengreen, Richard Kohl
  • Publication Date: 03-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Berkeley Roundtable on the International Economy
  • Abstract: Early optimists hoped that Eastern Europe might be able to emulate the high-performance economies of Asia once the shock of liberalization was absorbed. The ingredients of the East Asian “miracle,” in this view, were rapid accumulation based on high investment in physical and human capital, productivity growth based on technology transfer through licensing and direct foreign investment, rapidly expanding exports able to support industrial specialization and scale economies, and a strong state capable of guiding the development process and solving coordination problems. Emulating this recipe could provide the basis, it was hoped, for the expansion of exports and buoyant economic growth more generally.
  • Topic: Development, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, Eastern Europe, Asia
  • Author: Andrew Moravcsik
  • Publication Date: 05-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
  • Abstract: The thousands of books and articles on Charles de Gaulle's policy toward European integration, whether written by historians, political scientists, or commentators, universally accord primary explanatory importance to the General's distinctive geopolitical ideology. In explaining his motivations, only secondary significance, if any at all, is attached to commercial considerations. This paper seeks to reverse this historiographical consensus by the four major decisions toward European integration taken under de Gaulle's Presidency: the decisions to remain in the Common Market in 1958, to propose the Fouchet Plan in the early 1960s, to veto British accession to the EC, and to provoke the “empty chair” crisis in 1965-1966, resulting in “Luxembourg Compromise.” In each case, the overwhelming bulk of the primary evidence—speeches, memoirs, or government documents—suggests that de Gaulle's primary motivation was economic, not geopolitical or ideological. Like his predecessors and successors, de Gaulle sought to promote French industry and agriculture by establishing protected markets for their export products. This empirical finding has three broader implications: (1) For those interested in the European Union, it suggests that regional integration has been driven primarily by economic, not geopolitical considerations—even in the “least likely” case. (2) For those interested in the role of ideas in foreign policy, it suggests that strong interest groups in a democracy limit the impact of a leader's geopolitical ideology—even where the executive has very broad institutional autonomy. De Gaulle was a democratic statesman first and an ideological visionary second. (3) For those who employ qualitative case-study methods, it suggests that even a broad, representative sample of secondary sources does not create a firm basis for causal inference. For political scientists, as for historians, there is in many cases no reliable alternative to primary-source research.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Economics, International Organization, Political Economy, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe, France
  • Author: Michael Bernhard
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University
  • Abstract: Given the history of charismatic dictatorship in this century, charismatic leaders have been seen as threats to democracy. At the same time, periods of accelerated political change, such as the period of post-Communist democratization in Eastern and Central Europe, also give rise to charismatic leaders. This paper establishes the conditions under which charismatic leaders are compatible with democracy. Using a framework drawn from Max Weber's sociological writings the paper argues that charismatic leadership is only compatible with democracy when charisma is routinized in a rational-legal direction. In that routinization, however, rational-legal procedures (the rule-boundedness of power) must predominate over charismatic elements (the arbitrary and personal exercise of power). When this balance is reversed the result will be dictatorship. This discussion highlights the fact that both modern dictatorship and democracy legitimate themselves by a combination of charismatic and rational elements. It then considers whether Weber's theory can help us to understand the impact of the charismatic leadership on post-communist democratization by considering the experience of Havel in the Czech Republic, Wa__sa in Poland, and Yeltsin in Russia. It concludes with a discussion of charisma and its role in both democracy and dictatorship in the contemporary era. It finds that the similarity in the way in which modern democracy and dictatorship are legitimated augers better for the viability of authoritarian regimes than the many recent accounts which predict a diminished prospect for dictatorship in the current era might suggest.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Eastern Europe
  • Publication Date: 10-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: No abstract is available.
  • Author: Stephen J. Lukasik
  • Publication Date: 01-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Security and Cooperation
  • Abstract: The Commission's Report speaks to a wide range of physical and cyber attacks on the nation's critical infrastructure systems. It reaches six major conclusions: That while the potential for interference with critical infrastructure from cyber threats is growing, both by the proliferation of tools that attackers might employ and by the increasing electronic connectivity of infrastructure control systems, there is little immediate threat of severe national-level attack. There is, however, reason to believe that the threat in the longer term is significant. In view of the substantial private ownership of infrastructure systems, effective action to counter what is believed to be a growing threat requires a partnership between the public and private sectors. The basis for a public-private partnership is the sharing of information related to current infrastructure operations, threats, vulnerabilities of hardware, software, and communications, and risk management methodologies. The threat to infrastructure systems is exacerbated by the tendency for failures in one part of an infrastructure system to spread, thus impacting a greater part of the system than that initially attacked. The Report outlines in general terms the need for certain organizational actions by the federal government for all of the infrastructures to which its attention was directed in its implementing directive. These include: A coordinating office within the National Security Council structure A support office in the Department of Commerce A Presidentially-appointed National Infrastructure Assurance Council Seven lead agencies to structure public-private information sharing Sector coordinators for each of the identified infrastructures An Analysis Center to receive and analyze attack information A national attack warning capability Enhanced federal R expenditures in infrastructure assurance The Report calls for other long range programs to increase national awareness of the problem, to lead by example by improving the security of infrastructure systems under its direct control, and to review current legislation to determine where it is inadequate to deal with infrastructure threats from a law enforcement standpoint.
  • Topic: Government
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Saori N. Katada
  • Publication Date: 07-1998
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for International Studies, University of Southern California
  • Abstract: The world has experienced many financial crises. Despite numerous research and policy efforts in prevention to present them at of large scale, the global economy has not seen economists' (and investors') Nirvana of financial globalization without the occasional crises. On the contrary, the increasing dynamism and changing nature of financial flows across national borders seem to have created a larger number of new problems for creditors, debtors and international financial institutions. That has typically been true for middle income countries in Latin America and Asia and, very recently, in Eastern Europe, which have been integrated into the international financial system. During the two decades between the late 1970s and the late 1990s, three major sets of financial crises originated from those middle income countries, intensifying concerns for international financial stability.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Europe, Israel, East Asia, Latin America, Central America, North America