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  • Author: Eric Philippart
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Policy development in the EU is often impeded by member states being either unwilling or unable to participate. One way to overcome that problem is to resort to flexible approaches accommodating diversity. Convinced that an enlarged Union would require more flexibility, the current member states agreed in 1997 to introduce a new safety valve in the treaties, named 'enhanced cooperation'. Thanks to that mechanism, a group of member states may be authorised to use the EU framework to further their cooperation or integration in policy areas under EU competence whenever it appears impossible to do so with all of the member states.
  • Topic: Government, Human Rights, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Daniel Gros
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: It is widely accepted that enlargement requires reform of the highest decision-making bodies of the European Central Bank (ECB). In particular, there are concerns that the Governing Council, which is composed of the six-member Executive Board of the ECB plus the governors of the participating national central banks (NCBs), will grow too large to work efficiently. In the absence of reform, it could end up having over 30 members - resembling more a mini-parliament than a decision-making body that has to manage a global currency in fast-moving financial markets. Moreover, the accession of a number of small countries is often perceived as a threat to the "power balance" in the Governing Council.
  • Topic: Government, Human Rights, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Gráinne De Búrca, Jonathan Zeitlin
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: Within the Convention process, the final reports of no less than four separate working groups - those on Simplification, Complementary Competences, Economic Governance and Social Europe - have come out in favour of including the 'Open Method of Coordination' (OMC) within the Constitutional Treaty. The relevant sections of these reports are attached in an annex.
  • Topic: Government, Human Rights, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Daniel Gros
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Centre for European Policy Studies
  • Abstract: There is an urgent need to link the excessive deficit procedure with the issue of sustainability and hence the evolution of public debt. This note shows that there exists a simple way to introduce the evolution of public debt in the Stability Pact, which so far has focused exclusively on deficits. The link starts from the Maastricht criterion for participation in EMU concerning public debt and its reference value of 60% of GDP. The Maastricht criterion on public debt stipulates that if public debt exceeds 60% of GDP, it must be 'sufficiently diminishing and approaching the reference value at a satisfactory pace''.This note provides a numerical rule for evaluating whether public debt is indeed diminishing 'at a satisfactory pace'. This numerical rule is in accordance with the reference values in the Treaty and could be used as the basis for an 'excessive debt procedure'.
  • Topic: Government, Human Rights, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Paul C. Light
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: Public confidence is essential to America's 1.5 million charitable organizations and the 11 million Americans they employ. Confidence clearly affects the public's willingness to donate time and money, shapes the political and regulatory environment that governs charitable organizations, and has at least some influence on morale within the charitable workforce.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: America
  • Author: Lex Rieffel
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: The Peace Corps is one of the smallest instruments in the foreign policy toolkit of the United States. It is a “boutique” agency with a superb reputation. The Bush administration has proposed doubling the number of Peace Corps volunteers working in developing countries to 14,000 by 2007, still below the 1966 peak of over 15,000 volunteers.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Agriculture, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: James B. Steinberg, Mary Graham, Andrew Eggers
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: The Bush administration has begun to revise cold war rules governing national security information in order to counter terrorist threats to the United States. The president's homeland security plan calls for new intelligence efforts to protect the nation's borders, defend against threats within the United States, minimize infrastructure vulnerabilities, and improve emergency responses. Congress has given the new Department of Homeland Security responsibility for coordinating these strategies and assuring that accurate and complete information gets to those who need it.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Thomas J. Kane, Peter R. Orszag
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: In recent years, many public colleges and universities around the country have announced double-digit increases in tuition. The recession and the resulting squeeze on state revenues are the immediate causes. However, the short-term crisis should not be allowed to obscure a longer-term shift in state financing of higher education, which began more than a decade ago. As states have struggled to respond to other demands on their budgets-primarily due to rising state Medicaid obligations-parents and students have been asked to pay an increasingly large share of the costs in public higher education.
  • Topic: Economics, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: William Gale, Megan McNally, Janet Rothenberg Pack
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: Participants in the annual symposium on The Brookings-Wharton Papers on Urban Affairs—convened by Brookings and the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School—present research on issues unique to urban areas as well as on broader economic and policy topics that can apply to urban settings. This year's participants focused on urban education and presented findings on the results of an experiment designed to detect cheating on standardized tests, the impact of school reform in an urban setting, the effect of school quality on housing values, and the determinants of improved academic performance. Two other studies addressed other urban economic issues: the increase in economic inequality across and within geographic regions, and local variation in land use regulations. This year's Brookings-Wharton symposium took place at Brookings in October 2002. The resulting bound volume is due out this month from the Brookings Institution Press.
  • Topic: Economics, Education, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: United States, Pennsylvania
  • Author: Robert Litan, Richard Herring
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Brookings Institution
  • Abstract: In 1999, after nearly twenty years of debate, the U.S. Congress finally passed legislation permitting bank affiliations with all sorts of other financial enterprises, and vice versa. In this step, the United States joined many other countries — especially in Europe and, more recently, Japan — in allowing the operation of financial conglomerates. But are financial conglomerates the wave of the future in finance? And if so, how are they to be regulated? These were the two central questions addressed in the fifth annual conference of the Brookings-Wharton Papers on Financial Services, an annual volume published by the Brookings Institution Press. The conference, held in October 2002 in Washington, D.C., convened financial services experts from around the world. The papers presented at the conference suggest, generally, that while the future may see more financial conglomerate activity than it has in the past, there still will be a role for specialist, or "monoline" financial companies. As for regulation, there is no settled model: some nations will pursue consolidated supervision, with authority over entire conglomerates vested in a single authority (often the central bank), while others will still regulate the pieces of diversified financial enterprises along structural lines.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Washington
  • Author: George Perkovich, Sandra Polaski, John Audley, Scott Vaughan
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: Following the riotous 1999 meeting in Seattle, and a near failure in Doha in 2001, the World Trade Organization dedicated the current round of trade liberalization talks to “development.” Negotiators will meet in Cancun, Mexico, in September amid competing claims regarding what steps are necessary to make trade serve development goals. The catch phrases of international trade—“comparative advantage,” “the development round,” “trade not aid,” and “level playing field”—hide tough choices for both developing and developed country governments. Getting trade rules right is not sufficient for development, but getting them wrong can cripple it. The authors outline the policies that governments and international institutions will need to avoid a debacle at Cancun and to assist developing countries in achieving long-lasting growth.
  • Topic: Development, Globalization, International Organization, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Mexico
  • Author: Anatol Lieven
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: The vital U.S. relationship with Britain is much more fragile than many Americans think. Thanks to the Bush administration policy on a range of issues, hostility to the United States among the British public is higher than it has been since the Vietnam War. Only the personal commitment and moral courage of Tony Blair made British participation in the Iraq War possible—and the result has been seriously to endanger his leadership at home. Above all, Americans must understand that the strategy of this British government, and of the British foreign policy establishment in general, is to avoid having to make a definitive choice between Britain's alliance with the United States and its place in the European Union. If Washington forces Britain to choose between the two, it may not choose the United States, and a collapse of the relationship with Britain would leave the United States without a single major Western ally. The consequences for U.S. power and influence in the world would be nothing short of disastrous.
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Britain, United States, United Kingdom, America, Europe, Vietnam
  • Author: Marina Ottaway, Judith Yaphe
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: The Bush administration's plans for post-Saddam Iraq beyond the initial occupation remain uncertain. In developing those plans, the administration needs to take a hard look at the reality of the country. Iraq is not a political blank slate, to be transformed at American will into a democratic, secular, pluralist, and federal state. Instead, it is a difficult country with multiple social groups and power centers with conflicting agendas. Some of these, such as the intelligence and security services, will be replaced with new versions acceptable to the United States and the future government. The top echelons of the military, government ministries, and the Ba'th Party will be eliminated. Other power centers, however, will remain, adding to the problems of reconciling rival ethnic and religious factions as well as internally and externally based opposition elements.
  • Topic: Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America, Middle East
  • Author: Rose Gottemoeller
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: Nuclear arms control is often considered not worth the effort now that the Cold War is over. But the nuclear threat is anything but over. Several thousand strategic nuclear weapons remain on hair-trigger alert in U.S. and Russian arsenals. Many more are insecurely stored. Though the arms control problem needs to be faced by both countries, neither one has the stomach for another Cold War–style, 500-page treaty like START I. The new model is the 2002 Moscow Treaty—a simple, three-page commitment to reduction. Such short treaties now make sense because both countries have many ways to know what is going on inside each other's nuclear arsenal. START I is still very important, but it is no longer the only tool in the box. Today, Washington and Moscow can relegate negotiated treaties to a few essential fronts and pursue exciting, innovative arms control efforts involving threat reduction and technical cooperation.
  • Topic: Security, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Russia, Washington, Mexico
  • Author: Michael Swaine
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
  • Abstract: A remarkable improvement has taken place in U.S.–China relations during the past fourteen months, largely as a result of the 2001 terrorist attacks. Both sides have developed strong incentives to downplay their differences and seek common ground in a variety of areas, particularly the struggle against terrorism. If properly managed, this situation could lead to a more stable, mutually beneficial relationship during the next several years. However, the major obstacle to reaching this objective remains the Taiwan issue, which continues to exhibit highly destabilizing trends. In particular, political and social dynamics on Taiwan, Beijing's steady accumulation of military power, and the rapidly deepening U.S.–Taiwan security relationship could combine to increase the likelihood of conflict within the next five to seven years. To avoid this, and to establish a more sustainable basis for improved U.S.–China relations, the U.S. government must undertake policy changes, beginning with a serious effort to negotiate mutual arms reductions across the Taiwan Strait.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Taiwan, Asia
  • Author: Subodh Atal
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: Despite progress in the return of refugees and the prevention of humanitarian disasters, stability in Afghanistan is threatened by ethnic tension, feuding warlords, and violence perpetrated by regrouping elements of the Taliban and their allies. The United States is being asked to increase its level of commitment to rebuilding Afghanistan as a means of stabilizing the country, even as American troops battle the resurgent Islamic extremists who operate along the Afghan-Pakistan border.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Development, Politics
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, America, Middle East, Taliban, Arabia
  • Author: Steve H. Hanke, Matt Sekerke
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: Following a swift military campaign to remove the Saddam Hussein government in Iraq, it has become clear that preparations for the postwar period have been inadequate and that the occupying forces lack a workable exit strategy. Specifically, the Coalition Provisional Authority has failed to anticipate the challenges that face the postwar Iraqi economy, including the introduction of sound money to facilitate exchange.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Political Economy
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Ian Vásquez
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: The failure of past foreign aid programs has given rise to a new consensus on how to make foreign aid effective. According to the new approach, aid that goes into poor countries that have good policies and institutions is highly effective at promoting growth and reducing poverty. Disbursing aid to countries that have good policies contrasts with the traditional practice of providing aid to countries irrespective of the quality of their policies or providing aid to promote policy reforms. President George Bush's proposed foreign aid initiative, the Millennium Challenge Account, is based on the selective approach to foreign assistance, as are, in large part, the World Bank's calls to double foreign aid flows worldwide.
  • Topic: Debt, Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Third World
  • Author: Ian Vásquez, John Welborn
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: The Overseas Private Investment Corporation is a government agency that provides loans and investment insurance to U.S. companies doing business around the world. Its four-year, renewable charter will expire in September 2003. Proponents of OPIC claim that the agency helps the U.S. economy and promotes economic development abroad.
  • Topic: Economics, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Charles V. Peña
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: The rationale for missile defense put forward by its advocates is often a “doom and gloom” picture: America and its citizens are defenseless against the threat of ballistic missiles, and missile defense is supposed to protect the American people. The administration's vision of missile defense is not just a global system that protects the United States against long-range missiles but a global system capable of engaging all classes of ballistic missiles to protect U.S. forces deployed worldwide, U.S. allies, and other friendly countries. Thus, the purpose of missile defense is extended well beyond protecting America and Americans.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Doug Bandow
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: Ever since North Korea's dramatic revelation that it was producing materials that could be used to make nuclear weapons, the Bush administration has considered a range of policy options—including a military strike on North Korean nuclear facilities. Although the administration officially dismisses such talk, President Bush has left the military option on the table, and influential advisers outside of the administration have openly called for military action along the lines of the Israeli attack on Iraqi nuclear facilities at Osirak in 1981.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Israel, North Korea
  • Author: Anna J. Schwartz
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: The International Monetary Fund has proposed a universal bankruptcy tribunal to deal with sovereign debt restructuring. But does the international financial system really need such a mechanism? There has been little demand by sovereign borrowers or their creditors for a universal bankruptcy law, and few countries have had to enter into debt restructuring procedures. The absence of such a law does not appear to have created chaotic conditions even in those cases.
  • Topic: Economics, International Organization, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Ivan Eland
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: China's economy is four times the size of Taiwan's and apparently growing at a faster rate; that economic disparity between China and Taiwan could eventually lead to a military disparity as well. Nonetheless, even an informal U.S. security guarantee for Taiwan against nuclear-armed China is ill-advised. Taiwan is not strategically essential to America's national security. Moreover, China has significant incentives to avoid attacking Taiwan. Perhaps the most crucial is that hostile behavior toward Taiwan would jeopardize China's increasing economic linkage with the United States and other key countries.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, China, America, Taiwan, Asia
  • Author: Eric R. Taylor
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Cato Institute
  • Abstract: As war with Iraq becomes imminent, U.S. military readiness takes center stage. Concerns about readiness focus not only on our ability to successfully attack Iraq but on our ability to defend U.S. forces against an enemy regime that, if its existence is threatened, could have every incentive to use weapons of mass destruction. In any war with Iraq, military experts worry most about attacks with chemical and biological weapons. They have reason to worry, given the U.S. military's lack of preparedness for such attacks.
  • Topic: Security, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center on International Cooperation
  • Abstract: The Afghan people have been promised a lot in the last two years. New rules for a new world would be written in their country. Regime change would deliver Afghans, finally, from oppression and violence, while a Marshall Plan would give them a chance to rebuild their lives.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Asia
  • Author: Mark P Thirlwell
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Lowy Institute for International Policy
  • Abstract: There are strong parallels between today's US-China tensions over trade and US-Japan economic relations in the 1980s.
  • Topic: Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, Asia
  • Author: Catherine L. Mann
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Businesses throughout the US economy continue to transform even after the technology boom has faded. The key sources of this continuing transformation are investment in the information technology (IT) package (hardware, software, and business-service applications) and reorientation of business activities and processes to use both information and technology effectively.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Ben Goodrich
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: In May 2003, the World Trade Organization (WTO) dispute panel ruled that US steel safeguards imposed in March 2002 are illegal. The WTO Appellate Body is all but certain to confirm the panel's judgment, probably by December 2003. Then the Bush administration will face an important choice. It can keep the safeguards in place, pleasing steel producers and important constituencies in West Virginia, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. However, doing so would further anger steel users, who have probably lost more business and jobs as a direct consequence of the safeguards than steel producers have gained. Maintaining the safeguards would also send a signal to the world's trading nations that the United States is not prepared to endure the political cost of eliminating steel protection. Furthermore, the administration would run the risk that, in the middle of a presidential election season, foreign countries will exercise their rights under the WTO to retaliate.
  • Topic: Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Pennsylvania, Ohio, West Virginia
  • Author: Peter B. Kenen, Ellen E. Meade
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: In May 2004, ten countries are due to join the European Union. They are therefore obliged to join the European Monetary Union (EMU) and adopt the euro as their national currency. Most of them, moreover, have been eager to do that. None of them sought an opt-out of the sort that Britain and Denmark obtained in 1991, when the Maastricht Treaty was drafted. Membership in EMU is not automatic, however, because the accession countries must first satisfy the preconditions contained in the Maastricht Treaty. Although those preconditions are rigorous, and some of the accession countries are still far from meeting them, most of those countries have indicated that they want to enter EMU at the earliest possible date.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Britain, Europe, Denmark
  • Author: Gary Hufbauer, Ben Goodrich
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: A good proposal to eliminate tariffs must take into account both the pain and gain that developing countries are likely to experience. The authors take the measure of these costs and benefits and urge rich countries to maximize the benefits to developing countries while giving them ample time to accept, and adjust to, the changes that trade liberalization will require. But trade liberalization should not stop with tariff proposals. The United States and other industrial countries should generously reduce subsidies to farmers and eliminate nontariff barriers on agricultural imports. The United States should offer more concessions on services trade, particularly in its allowances for temporary foreign workers. Unless rich countries put more on the table, a WTO agreement to eliminate tariff barriers may be postponed for years.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Third World
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Gary Hufbauer, Ariel Assa
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: The tax-driven expatriation of US corporations is a troubling phenomenon. In a “corporate inversion,” a new foreign corporation, typically located in a low-tax or no-tax country, replaces the existing US parent corporation of a multinational enterprise (MNE). The US corporation then becomes a subsidiary of the new foreign parent. Since the US tax treatment of an MNE operating in the United States is significantly less favorable when the top-tier parent corporation is a domestic rather than a foreign corporation, the inversion transaction averts a substantial amount of US tax. Inversions have attracted adverse attention from tax specialists, media, the US Treasury Department, and Congress. In the wake of September 11, it seemed downright unpatriotic for US firms to invert as a way of skimping on their tax payments.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Marcus Noland
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Despite the passage of 50 years since an armistice ended military hostilities, the Korean peninsula remains divided, a Cold War vestige that seemingly has been unaffected by the evolution that has occurred elsewhere. If anything, US confrontation with North Korea—a charter member of its “axis of evil”—has intensified in recent years. Yet today, increasing numbers of South Koreans, accustomed to living for decades in the shadows of the North's forward-deployed artillery, do not regard the North as a serious threat. Growing prosperity and confidence in the South, in marked contrast to the North's isolation and penury, have transformed fear and loathing into pity and forbearance. Instead, it is the United States, an ocean away, that regards the North and its nuclear weapons program with alarm. As the United States has focused on the nuclear program, its ally, South Korea, has observed the North Koreans' nascent economic reforms and heard their talk of conventional forces reduction, and the gap in the two countries' respective assessments of the North Korean threat has widened dangerously, threatening to undermine their alliance.
  • Topic: Security, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Israel, East Asia, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, Korea
  • Author: Gary Clyde Hufbauer, Barbara Oegg
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: With the end of the Cold War, the focus of US foreign policy changed—and so did that of economic sanctions. Partly because of increased cooperation within the UN framework, economic sanctions were imposed so routinely in the early 1990s that scholars called that period the sanctions decade. This proliferation sparked intense debate about the effectiveness of sanctions as a policy tool and moved US sanctions policy to the center of public discourse.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Kimberly Ann Elliott
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: Almost a decade ago, as the last nuclear crisis with North Korea was reaching a peak, I concluded the following about the potential utility of economic sanctions: The debate over US policy toward North Korea boils down to one deceptively simple question: what does Kim Il-sung want? No one can be sure of the answer and different interpretations have quite different policy implications. If the Great Leader views a nuclear weapons option as important to the survival of his regime, economic sanctions are unlikely to force him to give it up. But if he views the threat of developing nuclear weapons as a bargaining chip, some combination of carrots and sticks may induce him to trade it away.
  • Topic: Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Israel, East Asia, North Korea
  • Author: Gary C. Hufbauer, Ben Goodrich
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Peterson Institute for International Economics
  • Abstract: While the US steel industry has been in distress for decades, the “steel crisis” of 1999-2001 was particularly acute. More than 30 steel producing and steel processing firms fell into bankruptcy between 1997 and 2001, and most of the failures occurred after President Bush took office. During his presidential campaign, Bush promised steelworkers that he would not neglect them. As the crisis worsened, the steel industry and the United Steel Workers of America (USWA) pressed the Bush administration to make good on its campaign promise.
  • Topic: Government, Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Mark Falcoff
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Joseph Conrad's novel Nostromo: A Tale of the Seaboard (1905), considered by many the Polish master's best novel, is set in the fictitious South American country of Costaguana. During the colonial period and for decades thereafter, the republic flourished thanks to the existence of a rich vein of silver mined since the early days of the Spanish conquest. At the time the novel opens, however, Costaguana has fallen on hard times because the most accessible deposits of the precious ore have been exhausted; massive new investment and technology are required to return the mine to full operation. Anglo-Costaguanan Charles Gould finds the necessary financing in London and New York, and almost as if by magic the resumption of mining breathes new life and progress into the republic.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: New York, London, South America, Bolivia
  • Author: Mark Falcoff
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: It's official: the long-awaited referendum on Venezuela's president Hugo Chávez will take place on February 29, 2004—if all the requirements laid down by the National Electoral Council are met. Theoretically this should put to rest once and for all the question of whether Venezuelans want their president to continue in office and should make possible the selection of a replacement thirty days thereafter should he fail to win the referendum.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: South America
  • Author: John H. Makin
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The policy stimulants administered in very large doses to the U.S. economy at midyear are wearing off fast. China's boom, while not ending, is cooling. The result of those two facts will be U.S. growth of 3 percent or less in the final quarter of this year and the first quarter of next before tax rebates kick in to provide a lone quarter of 4 percent growth next spring. Then it will be back to 3 percent, plus or minus half a percent, in the second half of 2004 as the boost from tax cuts fades, provided stock markets hold up.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, China
  • Author: John H. Makin
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The outlook for the global economy has become clouded since the September annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in Dubai. Going into the meetings, views were broadly optimistic, tied to the familiar, reassuring sense of a recovering U.S. economy, the prospect of rising exports, and a firm dollar. America, an oasis of firmer demand growth in a desert of global excess capacity, was back— again, for the second time since the bubble economy burst in March 2000. Only this time, it was for real, not like the false, post-9/11 recovery that fizzled out in the spring of 2002. Or, so it seemed.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Dubai
  • Author: John Yoo, Eric Posner
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Criticisms of the Patriot Act as unconstitutional and as a danger to individual rights are unfounded. Any marginal reduction in peacetime liberties entailed by the act seems to be a reasonable price to pay for an important weapon in fighting al Qaeda and other terrorists.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Author: Claude E. Barfield
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: President Bush's decision to revoke tariffs on imported steel products may lead the European Union to challenge other U.S. trade policies. Any such steps are likely to meet with stiff U.S. resistance, however, because the mechanism for resolving such disputes in the World Trade Organization is widely seen in the United States as lacking legitimacy.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Frederick M. Hess
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Performance-based accountability promises to ensure that every student, regardless of background, masters crucial knowledge and skills. But to realize that promise, accountability needs to be coercive, that is, it must confront failure with real consequences for both educators and students.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Sally Satel
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Prisons have become default mental-health treatment centers to the severe detriment of those experiencing genuine mental illness. Properly treating—rather than criminalizing—mental illness requires reforming our fragmented mental healthcare system and relaxing regulations to encourage patients to seek treatment.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Author: Reuel Marc Gerecht
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Real progress has been made in the war on terror-al Qaeda no longer enjoys state-sponsorship, and Iraq is moving toward democracy. But because neither the rogue regimes nor the "holy warriors" in the region can afford to allow the United States to successfully introduce democracy into Iraq, we must expect them to ratchet up the level of violence to prevent that from happening.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Allan H. Meltzer
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: While Alan Greenspan and most analysts continue to discuss the loss of millions of manufacturing jobs since the Bush administration took office, the Labor Department Household Survey shows such claims to be either wrong or greatly exaggerated.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Joshua Muravchik
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The longstanding media practice of whitewashing tyrannical regimes and their actions continues in most coverage of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Journalists must figure out how to avoid giving a tyranny the upper hand when it takes on a democracy.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Palestine
  • Author: John R. Lott Jr.
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Supporters predicted that the McCain-Feingold Act would make elections more competitive and voter-friendly, as well as reduce corruption. However, past federal and state regulations have merely succeeded in protecting incumbents from competition and have divorced voters further from the political process.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Author: Karl Zinsmeister
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Until recently, U.S. policy toward Iraq has been handicapped by a lack of acknowledged support for the United States from the Iraqi people themselves. According to most news and media outlets, Iraqi public opinion toward the United States is negative, but a recent study commissioned by The American Enterprise and conducted by Zogby International, a well-known polling agency, indicates Iraqi support for a continued U.S. presence in the region.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America, Middle East
  • Author: James Q. Wilson, Karlyn H. Bowman
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The authors find that the antiwar "peace party" has evolved since past military conflicts. Today this faction's composition may depend on the political party in power, yet it cannot be explained by age, income, or education. In addition, partisan opposition to the war reflects the higher level of ideological conflict among voters today, and war, always a black-or-white issue, will require Democratic and Republican candidates to tread carefully around peace party voters when seeking election.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Author: Reuel Marc Gerecht
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The Bush administration has joined those calling for more international troops in Iraq as a consensus-building approach to stabilizing the region. It is unlikely, however, that Iraqis will easily accept the authority of foreign troops—especially foreign Muslim troops.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Claude E. Barfield
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: As the WTO Ministerial Meeting opens in Cancún, Mexico, conflict surrounds the agenda. U.S. negotiators must find a balance between compromise and assertiveness to overcome soured U.S.-EU relations and should push for a sharp reduction in agricultural trade barriers, increased liberalization in the service sectors, and reductions in the remaining tariffs on industrial products.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Political Geography: Central America, North America, Mexico
  • Author: Peter J. Wallison
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: An array of stimulus factors has failed to generate strong growth in the U.S. economy. That may largely be a consequence of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act and the stock exchange regulations it has spawned, which have altered the composition and dynamics of corporate boards in ways that discourage risk-taking.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: R. Glenn Hubbard
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Corporate tax reform, which is gaining momentum in Congress, should focus on improving the competitiveness of U.S. firms operating abroad. A key aspect of that objective is to avoid double taxation.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Iriving Kristol
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Since its origin among disillusioned liberal intellectuals in the 1970s, neoconservatism has been an intellectual undercurrent that surfaces only intermittently and one whose meaning is glimpsed only in retrospect. It has flowered again of late, and President George W. Bush and his administration seem to be at home in the political environment created by neoconservatism's renaissance.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Author: Christina Hoff Sommers
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The distaste of top-tier schools for the military is powerfully demonstrated when faculties deny the Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) access to the campus. Most privately funded institutions receive substantial funds from the federal government, and the government is under no moral or legal obligation to continue subsidizing institutions that create hostile environments for the nation's cadets, soldiers, and veterans. Liberal arts colleges should be presented with the choice of lifting the ban on ROTC or losing government support.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Author: Richard Perle
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: The war in Iraq has demonstrated the significance of strong, decisive government leadership, bold military tactics coupled with advanced technology, and the possibility of spreading freedom and democracy throughout the Arab world.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Kevin A. Hassett, James K. Glassman
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Critics of globalization and America's dominant economic position fail to recognize that the primary beneficiaries of globalization are developing countries, many of which run substantial trade surpluses with the United States. Far from being a predator in the world economy, America offers an invaluable market to the developing world.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Jagadeesh Gokhale, Kent Smetters
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Current government accounting practices fail to grasp the future economic consequences of Social Security and Medicare. Necessary reforms of these entitlement programs will be thwarted unless policymakers take account of these long-term implications.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Author: John E. Calfee
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Congress is considering whether to allow pharmaceuticals exported by American manufacturers to be reimported into the United States. Reimportation would mean importing foreign price controls, which would destroy the pricing structure of the U.S. drug market and have disastrous consequences for future drug research and development.
  • Topic: International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, America
  • Author: Thomas Donnelly
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: More than two years after the September 11 attacks, the American military finds itself entrenched in a host of open-ended, low-level counterinsurgency campaigns across the Muslim world. These guerrilla conflicts have become, to no small extent, the operational reality that defines the global war on terror. But our current experience in Iraq—the central front of that broader conflict—suggests that the Pentagon still has a long way to go before it can prosecute these "small wars" with the same primacy it displayed during the "big war" this spring. Thus, if the United States is to succeed in creating a different kind of Middle East, it must create a different kind of military, redefining defense transformation to meet the strategic challenge now before us.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, America, Middle East
  • Author: Thomas Donnelly
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Since sweeping Saddam Hussein's regime from power this spring, U.S. forces in Iraq have been confronted by an amorphous guerrilla resistance, concentrated around the so-called Sunni Triangle. While growing numbers of Iraqis are working with coalition soldiers, provisional authorities, and international aid workers to lay the foundations for a democratic society, insurgents are waging a determined campaign of terror against them. To prevail, the U.S. military must develop an effective counterinsurgency strategy. History offers several precedents on how to do so.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Thomas Donnelly
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: On the evening of September 7, President George W. Bush declared the struggle to establish a more decent political order in Iraq "the central front" in the global war on terror. This was not merely a rhetorical flourish in the president's speech. Rather, it represents a further clarification of the Bush Doctrine and of U.S. national security strategy for the twenty-first century. What is at stake in Iraq extends beyond the borders of Mesopotamia. It defines what sort of world the American superpower wants-and what sort of sacrifices it is willing to make to create it.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Thomas Donnelly
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: Prime Minister Tony Blair has been widely praised for articulating a more persuasive and comprehensive rationale for war against Saddam Hussein than the Bush administration put forward. Now Blair's defense secretary, Geoffrey Hoon, has released a report on Operation Iraqi Freedom, which—in conjunction with Britain's defense white paper—suggests that London may be ahead of Washington in identifying some of the toughest lessons for the war on terrorism.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Thomas Donnelly
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: U.S. military operations in Iraq offer valuable lessons about the broader global war against terror. The ultimate prize in this conflict was never simply Saddam Hussein's elusive weapons programs, but the chance to establish a more durable international order. In sweeping aside the Ba'athist regime and by helping the Iraqi people build a prosperous, pluralistic, democratic society, the struggle between the forces of political liberty and the forces of repressive Islamism is now being joined in the heart of the Arab world. It is a battle we cannot afford to lose.
  • Topic: Security, Foreign Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Leon Aron
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
  • Abstract: In the early morning of October 25, 2003, masked agents of the Russian security agency, the FSB, stormed the plane of Mikhail Khodorkovsky, CEO and principal owner of Russia's largest private oil company, YUKOS; arrested him; and conveyed him to a Moscow prison. He was charged with tax evasion, fraud, forgery, and embezzlement.
  • Topic: Democratization, Economics, Emerging Markets
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Asia
  • Author: Richard L. Lawson, John R. Lyman, Donald L. Guertin, Tarun Das, Shinji Fukukawa, Yang Jike
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: For China and India, rapid economic growth is imperative to alleviate poverty, raise income levels and improve their citizens' quality of life. In 2000, China and India's combined populations of 2.3 billion represented over 38 percent of the world's population. With both countries determined to grow their economies rapidly, there will be an associated rapid rise in energy demand. One of the most significant problems facing the two countries is the existing and increasing level of air pollution that will accompany growing energy consumption. This report focuses on the challenge of developing economic, energy, and environmental policies that will complement existing policies designed to reconcile the drive for economic growth with the need for greater environmental protection of air quality.
  • Topic: Economics, Environment
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, China, India, Asia
  • Author: Walter B. Slocombe, C. Richard Nelson, Michael P.C. Carns, Jacques S. Gansler
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The prospect of North Korea developing both nuclear weapons and long–range missiles has been at the core of the U.S. rationale for early deployment of a missile defense and of Japan's interest in defense for itself. In the face of North Korea's missile programs and its acknowledgement of an active program to develop nuclear weapons, the problem of defense against those weapons assumes new urgency — as does the question of how defenses affect the broader dynamic of security in Northeast Asia.
  • Topic: Security, International Law
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Asia, North Korea
  • Author: C. Richard Nelson, Chester A. Crocker
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: The current U.S. strategy towards Libya – an implicit strategy of isolation – was developed for a very different international context than the one that currently exists. Put in place during the 1980s, the strategy was appropriate for the Cold War context and for dealing with Libya's hostile behavior at the time. Since then, however, both the general context and specific Libyan behavior have changed, rendering the current set of accumulated laws and regulations that govern U.S. relations with Libya outdated and inappropriate. Furthermore, the current strategy provides no vision for U.S.–Libyan relations once the remaining issues surrounding the 1988 bombing of Pan Am flight 103 are resolved. Thus, U.S. strategy needs to be changed to reflect better the new environment and new opportunities.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Africa, United States
  • Author: Richard Murphy
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Atlantic Council
  • Abstract: Winning the peace in Iraq – assuming the current regime will be displaced by war or by other means – will require successful management of several challenges. Chief among these is building the necessary consensus on a common vision for the future of Iraq. In this connection, three interrelated issues merit the highest priority attention: power sharing arrangements, Iraq's economy and oil sector, and regional stability.
  • Topic: Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: Leaders from the Western Hemisphere called on their governments at the conclusion of a Carter Center conference to implement partial public funding of campaigns and fully disclose election donations and expenditures to help restore confidence in government.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Development, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Africa, Europe, South America
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Carter Center
  • Abstract: People everywhere share the same dream of a caring international community that prevents war and oppression,” said President Carter after the Nobel Peace Prize was announced last October.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Conflict Prevention, Development, Peace Studies
  • Author: Marcus Corbin, Olga Levitsky
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Defense Information
  • Abstract: This issue of the defense monitor provides basic information about U.S. and foreign military forces, including facts on size, equipment, and cost. It is intended as a snapshot reference guide — more data is available on the CDI website at www.cdi.org/ news/vital-statistics/ and on the government Internet sources listed at the back of the issue.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Philip E. Coyle, Rachel Stohl, Winslow Wheeler, Theresa Hitchens, Victoria Garcia, Colin Robinson, Krista Nelson, Jeffrey Lewis
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Defense Information
  • Abstract: Few things are more routinely abused than facts when people in government — any party, any branch — set out to make a decision. I've been reminded of this truth watching the current administration parry revelations that it manipulated “facts” about weapons of mass destruction as a pretext for the war against Iraq that Congress authorized a year ago this past week. But I'd learned it the hard way much earlier. During a 31-year career as an evaluator for the General Accounting Office and a staffer for four different U.S. senators from both parties, I spent a lot of time trying to use facts to influence decisions made by the U.S. government. The facts took a beating all too often.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq
  • Author: Michael Donovan
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Defense Information
  • Abstract: S of this writing, 39 U.S. soldiers have been killed in Iraq in the 10 weeks following the declared conclusion of the campaign to over throw Saddam Hussein on May 1. This fact stands in sharp contrast to the optimistic pre-war rhetoric of the George W. Bush administration regarding the “liberation” of Iraq and testifies to the arduous road that lies ahead.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, War
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq
  • Author: Bruce Blair
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Defense Information
  • Abstract: Rear Adm. Eugene (Gene) Carroll, our beloved colleague who passed away this February, often shared with me his recollections of the role he once played in planning for nuclear war. As quoted in his obituary in the Washington Post, Gene once wrote: “During the horrible confrontation with the Soviet Union we called the Cold War, I frequently stood nuclear alert watch on aircraft carriers. For a period of time my assigned target was an industrial complex and transportation hub in a major city in Eastern Europe … My bomb alone would have resulted in the death of an estimated 600,000 human beings. Multiply that by 40 or 50 times and you can understand what two carriers alone would have done.”
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Cold War
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Soviet Union
  • Author: Col. Daniel Smith
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Defense Information
  • Abstract: At the start of 2003, the United States remains focused on fighting global terrorism in general even as it zeroes in on Iraq as the nexus of evil. But a number of factors in play today make international support for such a venture less effusive than in 1990-91, when the last anti-Saddam “coalition of the willing” formed. Many economies, including those of three of the four big financial supporters of the 1990-91 war — Japan, Germany, and Saudi Arabia — are weaker. Any war would be relatively more expensive. Suspicions about U.S. motives, fueled by the Bush administration's initial unilateralism, remain alive despite Washington's patient work in obtaining a UN Security Council resolution on new inspections. Germany has declared it will provide no forces; use of Saudi Arabian airbases to launch combat missions against Iraq remains unclear; and troop contributions, as well as moral support, from other Arab states such as Egypt and Syria may not materialize.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States, Japan, Iraq, Germany, Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt
  • Author: Loretta Bondi
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: CTR: How did the idea of the arrest warrant come about? António Vitorino: The 1999 Amsterdam Treaty expressly provided for the replacement of extradition procedures with a fast-track surrender mechanism. The meeting in Tampere that same year [creating an area of freedom, security and justice in the European Union] developed that idea. We have worked on it since 2000 and completed this work in September 2001. We presented our findings to the Council just eight days after the September 11 attacks. Work on the warrant was completed in just two months. The arrest warrant introduces an unprecedented expedited process, which abolishes formal and lengthy extradition procedures. It is based on the principle of mutual recognition of judicial decisions among EU members, that is, a decision of a member state tribunal should be executed in another member state as easily and quickly as possible.
  • Topic: Security, NATO
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Loretta Bondi
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: CTR: Will the attack against the Italian contingent in Iraq affect the Conference's debate? Dario Rivolta: This national tragedy will not change our country's posture towards the region. There are international factors that go beyond Euro- Mediterranean cooperation and that need to be tackled in a wider discussion. The attack against the carabinieri underscores the urgency of strengthening our collaboration with Arab states.
  • Topic: Security, NATO
  • Political Geography: Europe, Middle East
  • Author: Loretta Bondi
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: CTR: Will the Conference and its declaration offer a blueprint for a new security treaty to replace the 1947 Rio Treaty? Ambassador Miguel Ruiz- Cabañas: The Conference's declaration encapsulates the main security concerns of the hemisphere such as terrorism, organized crime, the illicit trafficking in persons and arms, poverty, HIV/AIDS and attacks on cyber security. It is a political document, not a legally binding instrument such as a treaty. It will have both a political and a moral impact. I believe that it would be difficult to draft a new treaty. Our approach is similar to such regional organizations that have reformulated their priorities not through a treaty, but through a new political declaration. I must add, however, that the Conference's draft declaration contains a paragraph calling for an assessment of the Rio Treaty to reflect the new security challenges facing the hemisphere. It has been proposed that next year, an expert working group could start meeting to evaluate whether OAS instruments and agreements are working and how they can be improved. The important fact is that, with this Conference and for the first time in fifty years, the region will commit to an updated vision of security based on common values and concerns.
  • Topic: Security, NATO
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Loretta Bondi
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: CTR: What prompted India to introduce the draft? Ambassador Vijay Nambiar: The challenge of confronting terrorism is nothing new to us. India has been a victim of terrorism for more than two decades. As victims, we are committed to eradicating this threat from our societies.
  • Topic: Security, NATO
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Loretta Bondi
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: CTR: Were there any big surprises at this meeting? Ambassador Kuniko Inoguchi: I was positively impressed by the strong participation of African states and other countries most affected by the presence of small arms and light weapons. It was very good to hear their voices directly and very encouraging to see a truly cooperative spirit both in the informal consultations and at the Biennial Meeting with states delivering very focused statements.
  • Topic: Human Rights, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Loretta Bondi
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: CTR: What gave impulse to these agreements? Dr. Athanassios Papaioannou: The idea came up in the immediate aftermath of September 11, 2001.Belgium, which held the rotating EU Presidency at that time, made the proposal. Both the Ministers' Council of Justice and the United States warmly accepted it. Lengthy negotiations started during2002, and they were successfully concluded [this month] during the Greek Presidency.
  • Topic: Human Rights, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Loretta Bondi
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: CTR: What is the comparative advantage of the OAS convention over the other dozen anti-terrorism treaties that have been developed in the past three decades? Ambassador Paul Durand: Beyond [the innovation of] human rights, I am not sure it did a lot more new. I think that the value added is that there is now a basis of understanding among 34 countries that you do not find in broader forums such as the UN. As for human rights, we were not going into the area of responsibilities of states [sponsors]. We tackled [this] issue in the context of states' obligations to respect human rights norms. Although this is new [in a terrorism convention], it did not cause an awful lot of consternation. Members were on board.
  • Topic: Human Rights, Regional Cooperation, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Author: Ian Anthony
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: EastWest Institute
  • Abstract: A free market that controlled the number and type of arms available to states and to non-state actors on the basis of their financial means and technological capacity would breed insecurity and stimulate un-necessary military spending. Rules are needed to regulate military capacities, but questions abound. What kinds of rules are needed? How should these rules be applied? As is the case with the provisions of the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BTWC), these rules could apply equally to all parties, and be universal and uniform in their application.
  • Topic: International Relations, Human Welfare, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Bidisha Biswas
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) pulled out of peace negotiations with the Sri Lankan government last March, putting even more stress on an already fragile peace process. Negotiations have continued, however, with a new effort to define an interim governing arrangement for the largely Tamil north and east of the country. Both sides are scrambling to show that the process can make a difference in the daily lives of residents and that they are committed to success. Nevertheless, one should not expect a speedy or smooth resolution of the conflict.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: South Asia
  • Author: Armand Cucciniello, Pramit Mitra
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Strategic and International Studies
  • Abstract: Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's short visit to India in early September, the first by an Israeli prime minister, highlighted the dramatic expansion in a relationship that started only 12 years ago. Before Sharon's early departure because of two suicide bombings back home, ministers from both countries signed six agreements covering visa requirements, environmental protection, combating illicit drug trafficking, and an initiative to begin an educational exchange program. The accent, however, was on the rapidly growing military supply relationship. Balancing its relations with Israel and its still important ties with the Muslim Middle East, especially its major oil suppliers, will be a growing challenge for India's policymakers.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: South Asia, Middle East, India, Israel
  • Author: Matthew Clarke
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: The world economy has recently changed. A new world economy has emerged over the last decade as two long-run broad trends, globalization and advances in information and communication technology (ICT) have converged. This 'new economy' is significantly different to the 'old economy', as knowledge has replaced traditional productivity inputs, such as labour and natural resources, as the primary ingredient for economic growth. A new landscape exists and countries must adapt their approaches and policies for development to achieve progress in the future.
  • Topic: Economics, Globalization, International Political Economy, Science and Technology
  • Author: Tony Addison
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: The period 1990-2000 saw 19 major armed-conflicts in Africa, ranging from civil wars to the 1998-2000 war between Eritrea and Ethiopia. Peace has been elusive, and the term 'post-conflict' is often a sad misnomer.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Economics, Poverty
  • Political Geography: Africa, Ethiopia, Eritrea
  • Author: Jerry Velasque, Uli Piest
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: United Nations University
  • Abstract: Embedded in the United Nations University's Environment and Sustainable Development Programme (ESD), the Inter-linkages Initiative is an innovative approach to managing sustainable development. Based on the recognition that environmental management is strongly related to human behaviour at all levels of natural and human interaction, it promotes greater connectivity between ecosystems and societal performance. On a practical level, the inter-linkages initiative is based on the assumption that improving the implementation of existing environmental mechanisms does not necessarily require new instruments but, rather, a greater level of coherence among the tools already available. In this regard, Interlinkages represents a time- and cost-effective approach to strengthening the existing systems of managing sustainable development.
  • Topic: International Relations, Development, International Cooperation, United Nations
  • Author: Soner Cagaptay
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
  • Abstract: A U.S. government team is in Ankara today for talks with members of the Turkish military and intelligence services regarding the future of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), an organization on the State Department's Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) list. On September 2, 2003, the PKK, whose past attacks have cost Turkey 35,000 lives, renounced a unilateral ceasefire it had declared in February 2000. This is a dangerous development for three reasons. First, PKK violence could throw Turkey back into the political maelstrom of the 1990s, and it is in Washington's best interests to help preserve democratic Turkey's stability. Second, if the PKK attacks Turkey from U.S.-controlled northern Iraq, where it has an estimated 4,000-5,000 terrorists, this could put Washington and Ankara at loggerheads. Third, Turkey considers joint action against the PKK a sine qua non for U.S.-Turkish cooperation in Iraq; it is unlikely that Ankara will send troops to Iraq unless the PKK issue is tackled. Given all of these reasons, the threat that the PKK poses to U.S. national interests is now at such a level that the organization is a legitimate target in the war on terror. Therefore, it is time to take action against the PKK.
  • Topic: Security, Religion
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Washington, Turkey, Middle East
  • Author: Richard Speier
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
  • Abstract: When Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon visits India on September 9-11, he is likely to explore the possible sale of Israeli Arrow antiballistic missiles to New Delhi. The United States, which has provided funds and technology for the Arrow since 1986, has a veto right over sales to third parties. U.S. approval of a sale to India would offer both advantages and disadvantages.
  • Topic: Security, Religion
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, India, Israel, New Delhi, Arabia
  • Author: Patrick Clawson
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
  • Abstract: The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), whose report about Iran leaked out yesterday, will soon have to decide whether to declare Iran noncompliant with its obligations under the Treaty on the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). What the world does about Iran's nuclear program will largely determine the future of efforts to prevent the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).
  • Topic: Security, Religion
  • Political Geography: Iran, Washington, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Jeffrey White, Michael Schmidmayr
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
  • Abstract: Riots last week in Baghdad and Basra raised questions about Shi'i opposition to the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA). While the Shi'i community has been relatively quiet compared to the Sunni population, elements of the Shi'i have adopted a consistent position against the CPA, occupation forces, and the appointed Governing Council. If they deem it necessary, those opposed to occupation have the means and motives to move to armed resistance, which would pose a substantial threat to the coalition.
  • Topic: Security, Religion
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Washington, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Ayca Ariyoruk
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
  • Abstract: A Turkish delegation is expected to be in Israel within the next few weeks, perhaps as early as August 20, to sign an agreement committing Israel to buy 50 million cubic meters (mcm) of water annually from Turkey for the next twenty years. Once the operational details -- price, timeline, and transportation methods -- are worked out, Turkish water will flow to Israel via purpose-built supertankers.
  • Topic: Security, Religion
  • Political Geography: Turkey, Middle East, Israel, Arabia
  • Author: Soner Cagaptay
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
  • Abstract: On August 8, 2003, the seventh European Union (EU) reform package went into effect in Turkey, significantly curbing the role of the military in politics. This legislation, passed by the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government on August 4, follows six previous packages adopted since February 2002. Collectively, these reform measures have vastly liberalized the country's political system, facilitating Kurdish broadcasting and education, abolishing the death penalty, and subjecting Turkish courts to the European Court of Human Rights. Turkey now has laws guaranteeing freedom of speech, and the military is no longer the kingmaker in Ankara. As a result, AKP -- a self-styled "conservative democratic" party with an identifiable "Islamist pedigree" -- anticipates that Turkey will pass muster when Brussels reviews its candidacy for EU membership in June 2004. Ankara hopes that the EU will establish an accession calendar, opening the way for Turkey's eventual entry into the union, perhaps within the next decade. These developments are crucial to Turkey's future. Which path will the country take now that the military is stripped of its role as a decisionmaking body? Will the EU open its doors to Turkey?
  • Topic: Security, Religion
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Michael Knights
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
  • Abstract: If Iraq is to rebuild its infrastructure and restore its economy at the pace forecast by the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA), it will need to bridge a major near-term financing gap by increasing capital inflows from outside the country and simultaneously improving its ability to absorb aid and investment. Oil revenues projected by the CPA budget through 2004 are overly optimistic, and Iraq's capacity to meet the levels of expenditure outlined in the budget are questionable. Without multilateral funding and much improved security and investment environments, Iraqi economic recovery is likely to develop at a slower pace than anticipated.
  • Topic: Security, Religion
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: David Hodges
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
  • Abstract: Since President George W. Bush declared an end to "major combat operations" in Iraq on May 1, coalition forces have repositioned themselves to deal with the emerging resistance in Iraq. Although many attacks on the coalition have taken place in Baghdad, 90 percent are occurring in the so-called "Sunni triangle," located north and northwest of the capital, according to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Richard Myers.
  • Topic: Security, Religion
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East, Arab Countries
  • Author: Soner Cagaptay
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
  • Abstract: A surprising summit meeting yesterday in Ankara involving members of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government, the Turkish General Staff, the Turkish Foreign Ministry, and the Turkish National Intelligence Organization produced an agreement "in principle" to send Turkish "peacekeeping soldiers" to Iraq. From one perspective, if Turkish troops were deployed to Iraq, it could end the period of "strategic pause" between Washington and Ankara in place since March 1, when the Turkish parliament refused to open up a northern front for U.S. troops invading Iraq. There are still political obstacles to Turkish troop deployment -- such as a divided AKP and a fairly reluctant parliament. Moreover, Turkish law requires that parliament authorize sending troops abroad except in the case of international legislation (such as a UN resolution), or a call for help justifying such a deployment, and the Turkish parliament is in recess until October 1. But even before the AKP government determines its position on this issue, a major hurdle will have to be overcome: if American and Turkish troops are to work together in Iraq, they will first have to build mutual confidence, which -- once formidable -- seems to have quickly eroded over the past months. How can this be accomplished?
  • Topic: Security, Religion
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, America, Washington, Turkey, Middle East, Arab Countries
  • Author: Simon Henderson
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
  • Abstract: Yesterday's meeting in the White House between U.S. president George W. Bush and Saudi foreign minister Prince Saud al-Faisal reflects both Saudi official anger at the reports of the kingdom's apparent complicity in the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and its continuing ability to gain short-notice access to the very top of the U.S. administration. But reports of the meeting suggest a new and public toughness by President Bush toward the Saudi leadership -- a significant break in the closeness between two political dynasties, the Bushes and the al-Saud.
  • Topic: Security, Religion
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Arab Countries, Saudi Arabia
  • Author: Abdullah Gul
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
  • Abstract: On July 25, 2003, Turkish deputy prime minister and foreign minister Abdullah Gul addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Dr. Gul was Turkey's prime minister between November 2002 and March 2003, and he served as minister of state and government spokesman in the Welfare Party government of 1997. The following is a rapporteur's summary of Dr. Gul's remarks and the question-and-answer session that followed.
  • Topic: Security, Religion
  • Political Geography: United States, Turkey, Middle East, Arab Countries