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  • Author: Ehsan Ahrari
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Columbia International Affairs Online
  • Abstract: The lone superpower has become the sole recipient of world criticism as well as praise and envy. According to a recent survey issued by the Pew Research Center, “Images of the United States have been tarnished in all types of nations: among longtime NATO allies, in developing countries, in Eastern Europe, and, most dramatically in Muslim societies.” That is the price of excellence. If others cannot be as good as you, the least they can do is admire and emulate you. The United States is criticized, and even hated in some regions, but the overriding variable is the global feeling of envy toward it. The survey underscores that the leadership of the superpower is an established phenomenon, at least for now, while its negative image continues to linger.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Globalization
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East
  • Author: Chris Smith
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Small Arms Survey
  • Abstract: Sri Lanka appears to be entering the final chapter of the 20-year civil war between the Government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE). Although it may be too early to assess, and the peace process is currently stalled, it does seem that the LTTE is more serious about a sustained peace process than at any time since the violence erupted in 1983.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Asia, Sri Lanka
  • Author: Anna Matveeva, Maria Haug, Maxim Pyadushkin
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Small Arms Survey
  • Abstract: This paper analyzes various aspects of the small arms issue in the Russian Federation. There are a number of reasons why a specific study of Russian small arms issues is helpful for policy-makers and researchers interested in small arms and light weapons (SALW). Russia is one of the world's major producers and exporters of SALW. The most successful and famous military assault rifle, the Kalashnikov, originated in the former Soviet Union. While the original rifle is no longer produced in Russia, its derivatives are still in production. The Russian Federation is also a country dealing with internal problems where the availability of small arms exacerbates the situation. These include regions of conflict, such as Chechnya, or problems of crime and personal security in big cities such as Moscow. Various methods have been used to retrieve illegally held small arms from Russian society, including regional buy-back programmes.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Russia, Soviet Union
  • Author: Derek B. Miller
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Small Arms Survey
  • Abstract: This paper draws strong conclusions about the dynamics of stockpiles and holdings, demand factors for small arms, and the significance of social controls on individual and community behaviour in Yemen.Using a new method, devised uniquely for this study, to estimate small arms availability at the local level, it is believed that Yemen has between 6-9 million small arms, most of which are from the former Eastern Bloc countries or China, with fewer numbers of various makes and models from other countries, some dating back to the early nineteenth century. This dramatically reduces the popular estimate of Yemen having 50 million small arms. However, this revised estimate includes only an educated guess as to the actual number of weapons in state stockpiles, as well as those in the hands of tribal sheikhs. Though severely reduced, this new figure does not undermine Yemen's status as one of the world's most heavily armed societies, but certainly not the most armed, when one considers both per capita weaponry and their high level of lethality.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Yemen
  • Author: Philip Alpers, Conor Twyford
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Small Arms Survey
  • Abstract: This study examines a wide range of small arms-related issues in 20 nations of the southern Pacific. It investigates the status of existing firearm legislation, the extent of legal stockpiles and illicit trade, and the socio-economic impacts of armed conflict on Pacific communities. Case histories examine more closely the disarmament process in Bougainville and the Solomon Islands, along with the widespread disruption wrought with small arms in Fiji and Papua New Guinea. Current initiatives to combat small arms trafficking in the region are also examined.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation
  • Political Geography: Australia/Pacific, Island, Guinea
  • Author: Anna Leander
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This article argues first that there is an increasing commodification of the use of force in many African states and it takes the example of the increased role of private military companies (PMCs) on the continent as epitomizing this development. Moreover, it points out that this commodification is widely accepted as both African and foreign governments, international organisations, NGOs, and private firms are relying on private firms. The article proceeds to spell out how this commodification affects state authority. It argues that the commodification of force poses problems for state authority both by undermining the direct control of states over the use of force and by undermining the basis of its authority. The article does not claim that state authority and the use of public force in Africa are unproblematic, nor that PMCs are the sole responsible for a situation they invariably worsen. Its aim is to underscore that it is a chimera to believe that reliance on PMCs is unproblematic for state authority and to clarify some of the mechanisms by which public authority is undermined by processes privatizing the use of force. Ultimately, the particularity of African states is likely to be reinforced rather than reduced by the commodification of the use of force on the continent.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Anna Leander
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The Economist's point of view is a widely shared one. It also seems warranted by current trends in policy-making in developed democracies. The US, the UK, the Netherlands, Belgium, Italy, Spain, and Portugal have abolished or are phasing out conscription. Even France, mother of citizens armies through the revolutionary levée en masse, just saw (literally as the event was broadcasted as a main feature of the evening television news) its last conscript leave the armed forces. The Nordic countries and Germany have not abolished conscription, but conscripts make up a shrinking share of the armed forces, which governments plan to shrink even further. For many observers this confirms that they simply lag behind. They will soon be brought to reason and abolish conscription. But this is a simplistic understanding of what determines the fate of conscription.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Government, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: United States, United Kingdom, France, Belgium, Spain, Italy, Netherlands, Portugal
  • Author: Olya Gayazova
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: The statistics on self-determination conflicts are worrisome. Some 67 armed self-determination conflicts have occurred in the world since 1955, not counting the wars of independence in the former European colonies. Of them, 35% are 'ongoing' and have been in that phase for the median duration of 17 years. Another 30% of these conflicts are of a 'contained' status. Yet another 15% have ended with agreements, which are 'contested' by parties within the minority group or the government, or both. All in all, 80% of armed self-determination conflicts - instead of being settled - persist and are apt to inspire new generations of freedom fighters (for some) and terrorists (for others).
  • Topic: International Law
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Stefano Guzzini
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Although Italy, in comparison to its Northern neighbours, is not a country of constructivists (Lucarelli and Menotti 2002), many of the themes crucial to constructivism are common currency in Italian academia. For constructivism stands for a series of debates in social theory which made a perhaps late yet virulent intrusion into the discipline of International Relations. Its content is probably best understood as the focus which bundles recent discussions on epistemology and the sociology of knowledge, on the agent-structure debate and the ontological status of social facts, and on the reciprocal relationship between these two.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Tarja Cronberg
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Danish Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper is about a partnership, the aim of which is to create a Europe without divides. A partnership where the vision is to transcend the divide between membership and non-membership and to create co-operation in trade, in stability and security, and in democracy on all levels. The paper examines the implementation of the EU-Russia partnership and its strategy not only on the rhetorical level but also in a micro-perspective seen from a border region (mostly from the EU-side), from a space where the divides whether economic, social or of any other kind are most clearly manifested. As borders manifest social conflict a study of the implementation of the partnership agreement on this micro-level will make visible not only the taken-for-granted assumptions and practices but also new and emerging divides. As a concrete case the creation of a European information society is studied. Will the partners be united in virtual space without divides? Conclusions are drawn on the nature of the partnership, the relationship between the partners and the perspective of a Europe without divides.
  • Topic: International Relations
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Japan Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The world is now several years into the twenty-first century. However, Africa remains a place faced with many difficulties, from violent conflicts to poverty and disease. A cursory examination of Africa today shows that the majority of the people in this region are not able to raise their incomes, and that the number of Africans living in poverty continues to increase, despite the fact that their countries receive considerable aid from the international community.
  • Topic: Development, Human Welfare, Non-Governmental Organization
  • Political Geography: Africa, Asia
  • Author: Sadaharu Kataoka
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Japan Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Promoting good governance and improving governance in Africa has drawn increasing attention from the international community as a new approach to solving a variety of problems such as military conflicts, poverty, and sluggish economic development. The question of how to achieve good governance came under the spotlight in the 1990s following the end of the Cold War era. Establishing good governance, along with democratization, has now come to be recognized an issue related to the "conditionality" imposed by donor countries on recipients in exchange for financial assistance.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Government
  • Political Geography: Africa
  • Author: Hiroshi Matsumoto
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Japan Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to present my own views on Yemen's moves to democratize. In order to do so, I will analyze a variety of issues related to the electoral system in Yemen and Yemeni political parties.
  • Topic: Democratization
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Erhard Busek
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Japan Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: SEE remains an important area worthy of continued international attention and support. Things have improved but still a way to go before stability and prosperity are assured. Djindic assassination is a challenge yet also an opportunity. Responsibility primarily falls on to shoulders of the EU, both in terms of financial resources and political engagement. EU accept s this and US actively supports it. SP is one manifestation. SEE-EU Thessaloniki Summit represents centerpiece of this year's boost to the prospects for eventual integration into Europe. It will be an opportunity to signal EU political intentions as to next steps in the entire region. In my view this can only be a reaffirmed perspective for future membership. We need to show concrete results in order to avoid “fatigue” in competition with Iraq, North Korea and other hot spots.
  • Topic: International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe, Israel
  • Author: Yang Bojiang
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Japan Institute of International Affairs
  • Abstract: Relations between China and Japan have weathered 30 turbulent years since the normalization of diplomatic ties in 1972. This period of 30 years can be divided roughly in half into the first and second parts. From 1972 to the late 1980s, when the world had the bipolar polygenetic political and military structures, the two countries took down the barriers of the Cold War to restore normal exchanges between the states and their cooperative relationship achieved rapid development in areas of trade, finance and technologies. In the period between the end of the Cold War and the present day, the bilateral relationship has entered the new stage where friction and collaboration coexist as do competition and cooperation amid the progress in political multipolarization and economic globalization of the world.
  • Topic: International Trade and Finance, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Irvin Lim
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: The Maritime Terrorist Threat is a hydra that continues to pose a clear and present danger to world commerce and, ultimately to the very well being of nations. The global stream of explosive carnage with truck bombs in Riyadh (Saudi Arabia) on 13 May 2003, gas station bombing attacks across Pakistan on 15 May 2003, truck bombs in Casablanca (Morocco) on 16 May 2003 and in Jakarta (Indonesia) on 5 August 2003 serve as gruesome reminders that the war on global terrorism is far from over. In fact the war is getting tougher. We have not yet seen 'the turning of the tide'. A new wave of attacks is imminent around the world. More than on land and in the air, the vast maritime domain makes policing a Herculean enterprise, and it continues to be vulnerable to potentially devastating terrorist attacks. The paper argues that in order to effectively deal with the common threat of maritime terrorism, the world's naval forces and their respective home-front elements such as coastguard, costums, and port authorities must work hand-in-glove with the shipping community to enhance multi-agency integration and to forge great multilateral cooperation in order to protect vulnerable hulls and safeguard homelands at ports and at sea. It stands to reason then that the protracted, if not interminable fight against maritime terrorism remains to be urgently joined and decidedly joint in effort.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, International Trade and Finance, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Pakistan, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, Morocco, Jakarta, Riyadh
  • Author: Richard Higgott
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper traces the 'securitisation' of US foreign economic policy since the advent of the Bush administration. It does so with reference to US economic policy in East Asia. It argues that in the context of US economic and military preponderance in the world order, the US has been able to resist the temptation to link foreign economic and security policy. While there was evidence of the securitisation of economic globalisation in US policy from day one of the Bush administration, it was 9/11 that firmed up this trend. For the key members of the Bush foreign policy team, globalisation is now seen not simply in neo-liberal economic terms, but also through the lenses of the national security agenda of the United States. Economic globalisation is now not only a benefit, but also a 'security problem'. 9/11 offered the opportunity for what we might call the 'unilateralist-idealists', in the Bush administration, to set in train their project for a post-sovereign approach to American foreign policy. The paper identifies some intellectual contradictions in current US strategy and raises a series of question about the implication for world order of the consolidation of the trends identified in the paper.
  • Topic: Security, Economics, Globalization
  • Political Geography: United States, America, East Asia
  • Author: Evelyn Goh
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper argues that the crucial determinant of Asia-Pacific security is whether the US and China can negotiate their relationship and their relative positions and roles in such a way as to produce sustainable regional stability. It examines three alternative models to assess some of the possible processes and outcomes in negotiating Sino-American coexistence. (I) Power transition, in which there is a significant structural shift in the regional system as a rising China challenges US dominance, with a range of possible outcomes; (II) The maintenance of the status quo of US strategic dominance over the region, which China does not challenge concentrating instead on inernal consolidation and on developing its economic power; and (III) Negotiated change, by which the two powers coordinate to manage a more fundamental structural transformation, either through froming a concert (duet) of power, or by moving towards a regional security community. The paper suggests that Model II is likely for the short-to medium-term; Model III for the medium term; and Model I for the long term.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Israel, Asia
  • Author: Alastair Iain Johnston
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: In the past public opinion has never really been an important issue in Chinese foreign policy studies for obvious reasons. China, after all, is not a country where voters can recall poorly performing political leaders. Foreign policy is still one of the most sensitive public policy issues where unapproved or sharp public dissent and criticism can be politically risky. And the Chinese political system is still a dictatorship.
  • Topic: International Relations, Nationalism
  • Political Geography: China, Beijing
  • Author: Adrian Kuah
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper examines the linkages between the norms and practices of sovereignty and the discourses on the formation of political identity and communities amidst tewnty-frist century socio-political and economic transformations. By undertaking a postmodern deconstruction of sovereignty, this paper recognizes sovereignty as a subjective, and hence fallible, social construct. It further contends that sovereignty as an Enlightenment project has become untenable with its promise of a universal solution to spatiotemporal problems. Against the backdrop of globalization, this paper problematizes sovereignty and argues that it is inextricably tied to the politics of identity. It also raises the idea of sovereignty as an analogue of the Englightenment model of the rational sovereign Man. Enshrined most preeminently in the nation-state, sovereignty represents simultaneously the locus and the limit of what is regarded as political identity. Furthermore, the norms and practices of sovereignty reflect changes in notions and the foci of identity. This paper attempts to locate explanations for the evolution of sovereignty at the level of identity formation, and points out that the politics of identity and the politics of sovereignty are a mutually constitutive, intersubjective discourse. Finally, this paper states that by persistently defining sovereignty in terms of indivisibility and exclusivity, sovereignty itself is becoming an obstacle to human emancipation.
  • Topic: International Relations, Nationalism
  • Author: Eduardo Lachica
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies
  • Abstract: Indonesia and the donor community are agreed that security sector reforms are needed to restore investor confidence and sustain the pace of economic recovery. However, donor-assisted programmes have had only a limited success so far and the army's post-Suharto reforms appeared to have ground to a halt. This paper offers some suggestions on how to restore the momentum for reform in the light of donor limitations, the military's historical circumstances and the current mood of intense nationalism. Donors should initiate a quiet Track II (non-official) dialogue with the military, the police, the civilian authorities and civil society to scope out a doable programme of cooperation. The issue of civilian supremacy should be dealt with pragmatically, allowing for a process of negotiation to find an effective working relationship between civilian and military authorities. The dialogue should frame the reform process as a burden for the entire society, reminding civilian leaders that they too have a responsibility to improve their performance and demonstrate their ability to oversee military affairs capably and fairly. Since U.S. assistance to the Indonesian military is likely to remain constrained, the paper proposes a "military donors club" that can expand the donor base and work informally with the World Bank-led Consultative Group on Indonesia. The dialogue should deal creatively and patiently with two of the most vexing issues relating to the army — restructuring its network of territorial commands and phasing out its controversial tradition of self-financing. This could be a difficult learning process for both sides of the civilian-military divide that could last a decade or more.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: United States, Indonesia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Maureen Shanahan
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
  • Abstract: This essay argues that L'Inhumaine, directed by Marcel L'Herbier, succeeded as a display of avant-gardism but failed as a heterosexual romance due to misquotation of heterosexual paradigms and its citation of gay, lesbian, and queer signs of the era. Georgette Leblanc, who was the film's lead actress and a principal financial contributor, signified as too “authoritative” both to collaborators and critics, yet her role in shaping the narrative has not been acknowledged. Leblanc scripted the principal character, the singer Claire Lescaut, as an “inhuman woman” who refuses marriage, fails to mourn her suicided male suitor, and is reviled by other women, suggesting post-war women who persisted in their careers and failed to mourn male losses from the Great War. In one scene, when a theater audience breaks into partisan factions rioting over Lescaut's “inhumanity,” two garçonnes or mannish women appear to take Lescaut's side against others in the audience, a scene staged in part by Leblanc's lover Margaret Anderson, co-editor of the Little Review. The presence of the garçonne couple suggests Leblanc and Anderson's desire to connote a lesbian meaning to the “inhuman woman” and to address a lesbian spectator. In addition, Leblanc's age, on-screen persona, and her partnership with a younger male actor disturbed the contemporary ideological ordre familial in post-war France. Instead, both Leblanc and Jaque Catelain, the male lead, resembled other public queer figures, such as Sarah Bernhardt and Jean Börlin, the lead dancer for the Ballets Suédois. In its emphasis on theatrical performance, audience relations, masking and deflected emotions, L'Inhumaine produces a slippage between the visible and invisible and permits multiple spectatorial positions.
  • Topic: Gender Issues, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Europe, France
  • Author: Danica Skara
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Institute for European Studies at Cornell University
  • Abstract: This paper explores the contemporary phenomenon of a global/American culture and its role in Europe, with special reference to the challenges faced by the developing countries of Southeastern Europe.
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe
  • Author: Valery Perry
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Centre for Minority Issues
  • Abstract: The post-war reconstruction and state-building process in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has been complex, with priorities changing as the country gradually normalizes and donor interests evolve. In mid-2002 the international community in BiH began a significant effort to modernize and reform BiH's education system to better prepare the country's youth to play productive social, economic and political roles in the future. Although educational reform gained significant attention in 2002, reforms efforts have been occurring at a variety of levels since 1996.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Development, Education, Reform
  • Political Geography: Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe
  • Author: Stefan Wolff
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Centre for Minority Issues
  • Abstract: Elections are a key element in any political process because of their rule-legitimating function. They are, therefore, frequently used instruments at different levels of the political process (from local government to presidential elections) and in most types of political systems (from democracies to single-party totalitarian systems). In democratic and democratizing systems in particular, elections serve a variety of different purposes in addition to legitimating rule, including providing an institution for the expression of the popular will and providing mechanisms for peaceful change in government.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe
  • Author: Antonio Missiroli
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: With the present issue, the 'European defence core documents' annual collection reaches its fourth volume – stretching from Copenhagen, where the last European Council of 2002 was held, to Brussels, where the last one of 2003 took place. In actual fact, the Thessaloniki European Council of June 2003 was the last one to be hosted by the country holding the rotational EU presidency. From now on, all European Councils will take place in Brussels – thus crucially depriving this collection of a distinctive title for each issue.
  • Topic: Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Stephano Silvestri
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: Space technology is linked to collective security, with the term “security” referring to the protection of European citizens from potential risks of both military and non-military origin. The European Commission Green Paper on “European Space Policy” included a statement on how security can be enhanced through space technologies. Space assets are fundamental for many common European endeavours, such as developing a “knowledge-based economy” or more integrated transport policies (single sky for example). At the same time, the development of a Common Foreign and Security Policy and a European Security and Defence Policy requires many new military capabilities. The increasing use of information technology is linked to these efforts to increase European capabilities, especially to meet data transmission and information requirements. The ECAP (European Capacities Action Plan) calls for concrete actions to increase asset availability.
  • Topic: Security, Politics, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Taras Kuzio
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: EU enlargement raises important questions: How much further can the EU enlarge? Should the EU encompass geographic 'Europe' or stop at the western border of the CIS? Article 49 of the Treaty on European Union (TEU) clearly allows any geographically based European state to apply for membership. Is Ukraine then eligible? On 15 March 2001, the European Parliament supported Ukraine's future membership; in contrast, the EU continues to fudge any answer to this question. The difficulty in answering these questions lies with the criteria that should be used to formulate a response. Whatever the answer, with enlargement it has become a matter of urgency for the EU to engage strategically with its new neighbours in Eastern Europe. In particular, the EU must develop a realistic strategy for Ukraine, its largest new neighbour within Europe. Of these neighbours only two – Ukraine and Moldova – seek EU membership. One reason why Ukraine needs greater attention on the part of the EU is geopolitical. European Commission President Romano Prodi and Swedish Prime Minister Goran Persson wrote: 'Any political instability, regressive economic development or fragmentary reform in these countries would threaten to create a new discontinuity in Europe – a political, economic and social divide – in the wake of EU enlargement.' 1 Ukraine borders three, and soon to be four, new EU members. All four of these are or will soon be NATO members. With enlargement, Ukraine's geostrategic importance becomes an issue that the EU must address. This Occasional Paper discusses critical issues in the EU-Ukrainian relationship and provides a number of policy recommendations that could contribute towards fashioning an EU strategy towards Ukraine. At the heart of the current stalemate in relations are virtual policies adopted by the EU and Ukraine towards each other. 2 The EU has never adopted a clear strategy towards Ukraine and other western CIS states that seek EU membership, and in general has paid far too little attention to the region. Ukraine straddles the Central and East European-Eurasian divide. This makes it all the more imperative that the EU devise a strategy that would support a potential shift within Ukraine towards a more Central and East European identity. This potential is more present in Ukraine than in other CIS states. The most effective manner to support Ukraine's 'European choice' may be by offering it an 'open-door' policy. The 2004 elections will have a decisive impact upon Ukraine's 'European choice'. If the front-runner in polls since 2000, Viktor Yushchenko, won the elections, the EU would be forced to change its 'closed-door' approach. Yushchenko would no longer continue a virtual 'European choice' strategy and the EU would be forced to drop its own virtual policy towards Ukraine. The policy proposals developed in this Occasional Paper outline a possible EU strategy towards Ukraine.
  • Topic: International Relations, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe, Ukraine
  • Author: Dov Lynch
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: EU-Russian security cooperation remains nascent, but some important ground has been cleared since 2000. Yet, the dialogue is neither without ambiguity or problems. It is replete with both. This Occasional Paper examines three facets of EU-Russia security relations. The first chapter, by Hiski Haukkala, compares EU and Russian perceptions of the other in security terms. Haukkala traces the evolution of EU thinking on Russia throughout the 1990s, highlighting the obstacles that held up the development of a strategic vision of the 'partnership'. Following an analysis of how Russia views the EU, he concludes that both have different visions of the other which lie at the source of problems of perception and expectation. In the second chapter, Thomas Gomart concentrates on a single aspect of the EU's Common Strategy on Russia (1999), that of preventive diplomacy, examined through the cases of Belarus and Macedonia. Gomart notes the absence of coordination between the EU and Russia in the former Soviet Union and the Balkans, and stresses the need for greater effort. Gomart notes also the danger of blurring the lines between the 'preventive' and the 'pre-emptive', particularly with regard to counter-terrorism. Anaïs Marin concludes this Occasional Paper with an examination of the Northern Dimension. Marin notes the unique utility of the 'dimensionalist' approach to EU- Russian relations, which takes in a wide range of subjects and different types of actors within a flexible framework. In conclusion, she rejects calls for a greater institutionalisation of the Northern Dimension, arguing that flexibility and 'lightness' are its strength.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe
  • Author: Antonio Missiroli
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: The financing of EU-led crisis management operations is a somewhat neglected yet nevertheless crucial factor affecting the external effectiveness and internal consistency of the Union's foreign and security policy. Until recently, CFSP's operational acquis has been minimal, its legal underpinning limited and tortuous, its budgetary fundament ludicrous, and its administrative practice mostly contradictory and often fraught with inter-institutional turf battles between Council, Commission and Parliament. With the launch of the first ESDP operations proper (EUPM in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Concordia in FYROM) in 2003, the forthcoming Operation Artemis in the Democratic Republic of Congo and the possible takeover of SFOR after 2004, it has become all the more important and urgent to devise more appropriate arrangements and incentives for common action. The European Convention and the ensuing Intergovernmental Conference represent additional opportunities to be seized. In this respect, the main issues to be addressed regard: a) the speed and readiness of budgetary allocations, on the one hand, and their long-term sustainability, on the other; b) the coherence of the relevant provisions, in both institutional and functional terms, and their consistency with the peculiarities of the EU as an international actor; and c) the degree of transparency, accountability and internal fairness compatible with the imperatives of crisis management. The experience of other international organisations operating in this field (NATO, OSCE, UN) can also be taken into consideration with a view to selecting rules and modalities that may be helpful in tackling the problems highlighted here. First and foremost, it is desirable that the current fragmentation of CFSP expenditure in separate EU budgetary lines be overcome. The appointment of an EU 'Minister for Foreign Affairs' (or whatever title is given to the new foreign policy supremo) is expected to help solve this problem and reduce some inter-institutional tensions and bottlenecks. For example, it is desirable for all expenditure related to civilian crisis management (with the possible exception of the salaries of seconded national personnel) to be borne by the EU bud- get in a more transparent fashion. To this end, the relevant procedures have to be made less tortuous and more flexible. Secondly, expenditure for operations 'having military or defence implications' — in so far as it will remain distinct and separate from the rest — should be pooled in a more systematic, sustainable and explicit manner. Neither the current 'ad hocery' (as exemplified by EUPM and Concordia ) nor the minimalist approach adopted by the Convention's Praesidium (with the proposal of a subsidiary 'start-up' fund) address the essential issues. In fact, if a subsidiary budget has to be set up, then it should be more ambitious and create a long- term basis for covering all the 'common costs' arising from military operations. Such an EU Operational Fund could usefully draw upon the precedent of the European Development Fund and adopt a distinct 'key' for national contributions. Such a 'key' should take into account e.g. the member states' ability to pay but also their ability to contribute in kin through the actual involvement of personnel and equipment in EU operations. It should also be periodically adjustable and help overcome potential 'burden-sharing' disputes inside the Union by setting agreed criteria against which to measure and assess national contributions without resorting to the crude GDP scale. At the same time, the Fund's financial cycle should be the same as that of the EU budget. And, in perspective, the “common costs” thus covered should include also accommodation and transportation costs, especially if the Union develops common capabilities in the fields of strategic lift and logistics. By doing so, the EU would eventually have two main modalities for common operational expenditure at its disposal: the EU budget for all non-military aspects, and the Operational Fund. Both would guarantee a reliable financial perspective. If the separation between civilian and military aspects were ever to be bridged, their merger would not represent a problem. Thirdly, the European Parliament could consider reimbursing those member states who participate in ESDP operations a fixed somme for faitaire to cover partially the per diems of their seconded personnel (civilian as well as military). Such reimbursement could be made through the EU budget annually, ex post facto, with no political conditions attached. On the one hand, it would prove that the EU budget covers not only internal benefits (agriculture and structural funds) but also external commitments. On the other, it would add transparency to ESDP in that the Parliament could organise hearings with experts and officials as well as plenary debates. For their part, the member states would gain an additional incentive – however modest – to provide adequate human resources for external operations. Finally, participating 'third' (and especially remaining and future candidate) countries could well be associated with all these arrangements, either case by case or more systematically. And none of the proposals outlined here necessarily require treaty change, although it would be preferable to insert some 'enabling' clauses in the Constitutional Treaty. All proposals, however, would require collaboration — rather than competition — between EU institutions.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe, Bosnia, Herzegovina, Democratic Republic of the Congo
  • Author: Gustav Lindström, Giovanni Gasparini
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: Aiming to reach operational status in 2008, the Galileo satellite system is planned to offer positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) services worldwide. It will join the ranks of the current GPS and GLONASS systems, allowing users to pinpoint their exact locations. While a civilian project, Galileo also has a security dimension. As a dual-use system, it will offer numerous applications in the security and defence field. PNT services give military planners and commanders means to manage assets, troops and munitions more effectively. Given its global coverage, Galileo will offer a large portion of these services to any interested party, thus opening the door for unintended users and uses. This has implications for the EU and its allies. Even if Galileo remains a civilian project, security issues will persist. With a growing number of users dependent on precise positioning services to carry out their daily functions, economic security would be negatively impacted should there be an intentional or accidental service shutdown. Thus, besides protecting the system from unauthorised use, it will be important to safeguard the system to ensure signal continuity at all times. Given the dual nature of the system, it is critical that European policy-makers consider the security dimensions of Galileo and take practical steps to limit its potential misuse. Among the required steps that need to be taken are: protecting the physical and electronic integrity of the system, establishing a permanent EU-US framework to handle outstanding security issues (such as the 'M-code overlay'), creating a clear chain of command for Galileo, expanding EU capacities to deal with space issues and limiting public regulated service signals (PRS) for security and defence-related purposes.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Gustav Lindstrom, Burkard Schmitt
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: Curbing the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) is important to European policy-makers. This has been especially evident throughout 2003. On 6 June 2003, the European Union unveiled its basic principles for an 'EU Strategy against the proliferation of WMD'. Among its first principles, the EU underscores that 'the proliferation of all weapons of mass destruction (i.e. biological, chemical and nuclear weapons) and means of delivery such as ballistic missiles constitutes a threat to international peace and security'.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Europe, Central Asia
  • Author: Dov Lynch
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: The South Caucasus contains three states that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union: Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Geographically, the region is populated by some fifteen million people, links the Caspian Sea basin to the Black Sea on an east-to-west axis, and is the juncture between the greater Middle East, Turkey and Iran, and the Russian Federation. This chapter will introduce a number of themes that run through this Chaillot Paper. The first part examines the nature of the 'transition' that the three South Caucasian states have undergone with a view to understanding the scale of their transformation. A second part discusses dimensions of state weakness across the region. Next, the chapter considers the impact of third parties on regional security/insecurity, and finally it outlines the structure of the volume.
  • Topic: Security, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Russia, Europe, Iran, Central Asia, Turkey, Caucasus, Middle East, Soviet Union, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia
  • Author: Dov Lynch, Antonio Missiroli, Martin Ortega, Dimitrios Triantaphyllou, Judy Batt
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: This Chaillot Paper is the product of collegial reflection by the EUISS research team. As the current enlargement process moves towards its culmination with the accession of ten new member states in May 2004, its effects are already making themselves felt not only on the internal but also the external policies of the widening Union. New borders and neighbours bring new challenges while reconfiguring old ones. This new reality requires more than just additions to already existing policies. The entire neighbourhood, or proximity, policy of the enlarged EU will have to be reassessed and reformulated.
  • Topic: International Relations, International Cooperation, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Burkard Schmitt
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: The proposals of the Convention on the Future of Europe and the recent European Commission Communication on a Defence Equipment Policy have revived the debate about the EU's possible involvement in armaments. There is indeed a chance today that a European Agency for Armaments, Research and Capabilities will be set up and anchored in the new EU Treaty. At the same time, there is a growing consensus that the EU Commission should have certain competencies in the field of security-related research, and even the establishment of a common defence equipment market is (again) under discussion.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Martin Ortega
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: In summer 2000 the negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians hosted by President Clinton at Camp David raised the prospect of a peaceful resolution of the most sensitive aspects of their controversy, after almost nine years of difficult but promising exchanges following on from the Madrid Conference of November 1991. Nevertheless, Yasser Arafat's refusal to accept the terms negotiated at Camp David and the outbreak of a second intifada on 28 September 2000 led to a spiral of violence that dashed hopes for peace, leading instead to low-intensity war. Nor did the election of Ariel Sharon as Prime Minister in February 2001 make a return to the negotiating table any easier. The two parties considered that they would have more to gain from acts of violence than from negotiations and agreements. Therefore, violence in the Middle East was the continuation of diplomacy by other means. The external actors did not want, or were unable, to break this vicious circle. The most bitter regional conflict since the Second World War was thus rekindled following a phase of pacification that had appeared to be permanent. The European Union and its member states, but also the European public, viewed this negative development with great concern, because the breakdown of the peace process symbolised the end of a decade of optimism that the international community could promote peace not only in the Middle East but also in many other regions, such as southern Africa, Central America, the Balkans or South-East Asia.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Europe, Middle East, South Africa, Balkans, Central America, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Burkard Schmitt
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: To strengthen the security structure of an erstwhile enemy, and a country that hard-nosed defence analysts and military planners - think of the last two US Nuclear Posture Reviews – still view as a potential threat, is quite an unorthodox and innovative way to address one's own security concerns. Yet cooperative threat reduction (CTR) has become part and parcel of Western security policy. A considerable number of NATO and European Union (EU) member states are involved in this sort of activity, as is the EU itself, including its most genuinely European actor, the European Commission (EC).
  • Topic: International Cooperation, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, Europe, Soviet Union
  • Author: Dov Lynch
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: The crisis on Iraq has challenged key features of international relations. The United States and Britain intervened in Iraq without the specific support of the United Nations, avoiding a second resolution in February 2003 precisely because they feared coercive action would be vetoed. The UN has taken a serious blow and the parameters of international law on self-defence and the use of force are being redefined by US and British actions. The crisis has also left the transatlantic relationship in tatters, with the appearance of serious divisions in Europe and inside the European Union. France, Germany and Russia coordinated their positions against coercive actions within the UN Security Council, adopting a number of joint declarations in 2003 on how to strengthen the inspection regime. With all this, the very notion of the West as it existed in the Cold War seems under question.
  • Topic: Security, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Russia, America, Europe, France, Kosovo, Germany, United Nations, Syria
  • Author: Burkard Schmitt
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: There is a long tradition of armaments cooperation in Europe. The first cooperative programmes were launched in the 1960s, and their number increased considerably over the following decades. Projects such as Transall, Tornado, HOT, Milan and Eurofighter – to name just a few – have illustrated both the political will and the technological capability to develop and produce high-tech weapons systems jointly.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Government, International Cooperation
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Harald Müller
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: Since 11 September, it has become fashionable to maintain that nothing is as it was before. This statement is, however, much less reasonable a proposition than the memory of the unforgettable images of that day may suggest. It is thus useful, at the beginning of a study of security in today's circumstances, to list those items that have emphatically not changed: Power relations in the world have not changed. The United States was the dominant power before the attacks on its territory, and it is more dominant today than ever before. The problems resulting from globalisation, such as financial instability, poverty, unequal development and damage to the world's ecology are still there, and there are still no comprehensive solutions to them. Regional conflicts continue to cost lives, and continue without let-up. Conflict between the great powers is looming in East Asia as before. The need for instruments of global governance, though largely ignored in the most important capital city of the world, is becoming increasingly urgent, and is not being properly addressed. Finally, the sources of large-scale, extremely violent terrorism have existed for more than a decade and will not go away quickly and easily. Thus, there is much more continuity than the superficial comments that abound in public discourse would have it.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Jean-Yves Haine
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Institute for Security Studies
  • Abstract: The year 2002 was characterised by the stabilisation of Afghanistan, the prospect of war in Iraq, the suicidal, deadly impasse in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and North Korea's declared nuclear proliferation. There was thus a significant deterioration in the international environment. In these conditions of growing uncertainty, in both the short and long term, the Union, which now extends to the borders of the Russian and Arab-Muslim worlds, appears as a haven of stability and peace. The peaceful reunification of the European continent that the enlargement of both the Union and the Atlantic Alliance represents will stand out as one of the positive events of 2002. Yet this pacification of Europe has taken place in a world that is still suffering the consequences of the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001. To start with, the United States has developed a conception of its security that is both more sovereign and more comprehensive. The new National Security Strategy includes pre-emptive war among its ways of fighting terrorism and seems to favour coalitions of convenience rather than institutionalised alliances. There is no doubt that this attitude has raised questions in Europe and led to transatlantic difficulties. But this unilateralist fever early in the year gave way to more realistic, pragmatic attitudes with President Bush's speech to the UN on 12 September 2002 and the subsequent adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 1441.
  • Topic: Terrorism, War
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, Russia, Europe, Central Asia, Israel, North Korea, Palestine, United Nations
  • Author: Eirin Mobekk
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: The police service of East Timor, Policia Nacional de Timor-Leste (PNTL), was formally established on 10 August 2001 by UNTAET Regulation 2001/22. It was initially know as East Timor Police Service (ETPS), later this was changed to Timor- Leste Police Service (TLPS), it is now referred to as PNTL, which is what will be used throughout this paper. The creation of the police service came about as a result of Indonesia's withdrawal from East Timor in 1999, after 24 years of occupation after a ballot where 78.5% voted for independence. Up until that time East Timor had been policed by a foreign state. It had never had its own separate police force.
  • Topic: Security, Civil Society, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: Indonesia, Southeast Asia
  • Author: Eirin Mobekk
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: When the Indonesian government agreed to hold the ballot of independence in East Timor in August 1999, it led to a cascade of violence throughout the pre-ballot period by pro-integration militias and Indonesian security forces. The violence that was perpetrated in East Timor in 1999 has been defined as crimes against humanity. It included murder, rape, torture and inhuman and degrading treatment. After the result of the ballot was announced the violence accelerated out of control. The number of dead is estimated to be between 1,300 and 1,500, most of the population was displaced and 70% of the infrastructure destroyed. Re-construction, re-building and reconciliation were now on the agenda.
  • Topic: Security, Human Welfare, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Michael Brzoska
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to provide a survey of current discussion on 'security sector reform'. Created only in the late 1990s, the term has spread rapidly in international discourses. It is now used in a number of contexts, ranging from its origin in the development donor community2 and to debate on reform in the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe to changes in the major industrialised countries of Western Europe (Winkler, 2002). That the term is used widely suggests that the time was ripe for it. It would seem obvious that there was a need to find a new term for a plethora of phenomena and activities related to reform of the sector of society charged with the provision of security.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Philipp H. Fluri
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: The DCAF Security Sector Governance Status Report and Needs Assessment on Timor- Leste was planned and implemented on the initiative and on behalf of the Foreign Minister of Switzerland Madame Micheline Calmy-Rey.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Development, Government
  • Author: Willem F. van Eekelen
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: The term security sector reform is in fashion because it recognises the need for adaptation to changed circumstances after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the emergence of fanatical terrorism, without being precise about its vast agenda. In the report 2003 of the Secretary General of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly defence sector reform was defined as the reorientation away from Cold War structures of armed forces and defence establishments through reorganisation, restructuring and downsizing in order to meet the demands of the new security environment. It is a challenge that all countries - Alliance and partners alike - have had to confront. However, the need has been particularly acute for the countries of central and eastern Europe because of the military legacy many of these countries inherited and the dire straits of many of their economies.
  • Topic: Security, NATO, Civil Society, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Louis L. Boros
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: Nearly all nations recognize and acknowledge the need for national defence and hence the need for national armed forces. However, the existence of armed forces also causes problems for every government, since, as Mao Tse-Tung so aptly put it, power comes from the barrel of a gun. One of the concerns of government, therefore, is how to ensure, that the political will remains in civilian hands. As we know, history has shown that this concern is both legitimate and well founded, since militaries have repeatedly seized control of government in many parts and nations of the world. (It has also been generally true, that military-led governments have not been exceptionally successful in running the government, regulating the economy, or solving social issues). Thus, a debate arises about the degree to which civilian leaders should control, or command the armed forces.
  • Topic: Security, Civil Society, Economics, Politics
  • Author: Vladimir Shustov
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: To start with, I would like to note that the degree to which the civil society influences state national security policies depends on political and social and economic character of the state and, accordingly, on relationships between various branches of power and the society itself represented by its organizations, mass media and individuals.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia
  • Author: Yuri Nazarkin
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: The current Russian security decision-making system represents a particular interest, because Russia today is at a crucial stage of its development. There are a number of factors that are shaping its system: new security dimensions and requirements, traditional and innovative approaches towards security, political interests of various groupings, economic interests of big corporations, politicians' personal ambitions. At the same time the past experience puts a noticeable impact on the current decisionmaking mechanisms. That is why I am going to start with the Soviet period.
  • Topic: Communism, Development, Economics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Ukraine, Soviet Union
  • Author: Mircea Plangu
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: Bitter impressions can be presumed if we are to acknowledge that society is somehow divided into two categories: military and civilians, or vice-versa. Or if we understand that the civilians involved in security policy are a scarce resource. Reading about the concept, we can perceive hints about some obstacles existent in the activity of civilians at the interface with their military colleagues.
  • Topic: Security, Civil Society, Government
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Velizar Shalamanov
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: The strengthening of the democratic and civilian control of the security sector has been an important policy issue on the agenda of the international community throughout the last decade. A key dimension in this respect is the role of civilians in the formulation and conduct of national security policy.
  • Topic: Security, Civil Society, Government
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Bulgaria
  • Author: Marie Vlachová
  • Publication Date: 08-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: Formal and institutional framework of democratic control of armed forces has been installed in the Czech Republic – roles, responsibilities and powers of security sector institutions/actors are determined by law.
  • Topic: Security, Civil Society, Government
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Czech Republic
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: Democracy is founded on every citizen's right to take part in the management of public affairs. This requires the existence of representative institutions at all levels and, as a cornerstone, a parliament in which all components of society are represented and which has the requisite powers and means to express the will of the people by legislating and overseeing government action.
  • Topic: Democratization, Economics, Government, Politics
  • Author: David Betz
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: It is a truism that the nature and limits of parliamentary oversight in any state are determined by the constitutional and political structure unique to that state. That is to say, a state's constitutional and political “framework of legislative oversight” ultimately constrains the extent to which its parliamentarians may regulate their defence establishment. In some countries, parliament has the legal wherewithal to exert a high degree of scrutiny and control over developments in the defence sector. In others, parliaments possess only limited legal prerogatives in this respect because the executive dominates the defence sector.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Civil Society, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, Ukraine, Poland, Hungary
  • Author: Leif Mevik
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: In Norway, monitoring of the secret services (EOS services) is carried out by a parliamentary monitoring body, the Committee for Monitoring of Intelligence, Surveillance and Security Services. The Committee conducts continuous monitoring of the Norwegian Police Security Service, the Norwegian Intelligence Service and the Norwegian National Security Authority (NoNSA). The monitoring arrangement is independent of the EOS services and the remainder of the administration. The Committee's members are elected by the Storting (the Norwegian parliament), and the Committee reports to the Storting annually. The arrangement was established in 1996. The continuous monitoring takes the form of regular inspections of the secret services. The Committee also deals with complaints from private individuals and organizations that believe the secret services have committed injustices against them.
  • Topic: Security, Government, Human Rights
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Marie Vlachová
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: In the mid-1980s, only three per cent of Czechoslovak women served in the professional corps. By the turn of the millennium, their number had increased to ten per cent. The process of a slow, but steady integration of women into the Czechoslovak/Czech armed forces, its present state and future perspectives are described in this study.
  • Topic: Security, Gender Issues, Government
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe
  • Author: Marie Vlachová
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: Throughout modern history, the fate of the Czech nation has always been determined by politicians and not the armed forces. Czech soldiers have seldom fought for "their cause", i.e. one with which they are able to identify fully. The existence of Czechoslovakia's pre-war army, which was supposed to guarantee national sovereignty, was too short-lived, ending unimpressively when the political representation decided to demobilize prior to the country's occupation by the Nazis. The First Republic tradition was not sufficient to overcome widespread anti-military sentiments, which were personified by the infamous Czech literary character known as "Soldier Shweik" - whose origins lie in the Austro-Hungarian Empire. During the Communist era, most people were unable to identify with a fight against imperialism, that was designed by the Communist regime as the main reason for compulsory service in the military. The fact that the army stayed away from the public resistance to the 1968 occupation of Czechoslovakia by Warsaw Pact forces, only exacerbated the common perception that the military was no more than an obedient instrument of the Soviet Union's power politics. Even after the collapse of communism, doubts about the necessity to have an army persisted within Czech society. After November 1989, the armed forces drifted from the public.s and politician.s centre of attention for a short time. However, once it became apparent that the army would not intervene in the political transformation process; both the population and the new political representation shifted their focus towards political, economic, and also social issues.
  • Topic: Security, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Czech Republic
  • Author: Ian Leigh
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: This paper is a contribution to a continuing project of the Geneva Centre for Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF): to provide a map or 'matrix' of legal norms to govern security sector reform. Previous contributions have addressed civil-military relations and work remains to be done on policing. The focus here is on the implications of this approach for the norms governing security and intelligence agencies.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Geneva
  • Author: Anyu Angelov
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: The notion of national security could be perceived in a narrow meaning or in an exceptionally broad meaning. Using this term in broader sense creates opportunities of binding mutually the functions and the responsibilities of almost all state institutions, local administration and municipalities in almost all spheres of public life. But such a perception hides a danger of dilution and chaotic shift of responsibilities between agencies for some of their paramount activities. And sometimes the broader sense could mislead even governments in their decision-making process. Let me give you a brand new Bulgarian example. Recently the Supreme Administrative Court stopped temporarily one of the biggest privatisation deals- those on Bulgarian tobacco holding known as "Bulgartabac". Striving for acceleration of the privatisation process and finding no other opportunity to overrule the court's decision about a concrete buyer, the government passed a bill, in which only the parliament is authorised to make decisions on the privatisation of fifteen of the biggest state companies, among them Bulgarian Tоbacco Holding, Bulgarian Railways, Bulgarian Airlines. Those decisions cannot be protested by the prosecution and overruled by the court. The only motivation of such exclusive procedure was the "exceptional importance of these companies for the national security". The bill was adopted by the National Assembly with shake majority, but was vetoed by the President.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Bulgaria
  • Author: Hans Born, Philip Fluri
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: There is a widespread belief that security policy is a 'natural' task for the executive as they have the requisite knowledge and ability to act quickly. The decision to go to war, to contribute troops to multinational peace support operations, to conclude international treaties or to raise defence spending, to mention just some of the most important governmental security responsibilities, are regarded to be executive decisions. The stubborn perception exists that parliaments should be kept out of these decisions. Parliament tends to be regarded as a less suitable institution for dealing with security issues, especially given its often time-consuming procedures and lack of full access to the necessary expertise and information. Additionally, parliaments are regarded as ill-suited institutions for keeping classified information secret. However, this is a misperception. The past teaches us that parliaments do play a major role in matters of security in democratic states, both in times of war and peace. In the times of the Roman Republic, the Dutch Republic in the sixteenth century, Great Britain in the Second World War, or, more recently at the outbreak of the Second Gulf War, Parliaments across the globe have debated, influenced and exercised oversight over security policy and security sector reform, even in the middle of war.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: Europe, Romania, Dutch
  • Author: Agnieszka Gogolewska
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: In representative democracies, parliaments play a crucial, albeit sometimes neglected or underestimated role in assuring a proper functioning of the democratic civilian control of the security sector. In that sense, parliaments represent an important link in the chain of democratic institutions exercising such control. It would be wrong however to assume that the controlling functions of the legislatures are realised in much the same way as the executive or civilian bureaucracy exercises them. In democratic systems parliaments are an institutional expression of popular legitimacy and accountability, therefore their controlling role is more general and principle-driven that is the case of other institutions, directly responsible for managing security sector.
  • Topic: Security, Civil Society, Government, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Poland
  • Author: Jack Petri
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: I have been asked to present brief comments on the subject of officer career management in a peacetime democracy. As I have spent much of my 30-year military career involved either directly or indirectly in the management of officers in a democracy (mostly in peace, but also in war), I am very happy to be able to share my thoughts and experience with you today.
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, Government, Peace Studies
  • Author: Philipp Fluri
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: Unlike in many other developing countries on the way to democracy, the military plays a more limited role than other security providers, notably the Ministry of the Interior whose forces are much more powerful than the military and have their own armed units. They pose the greater potential threat to security and stability, and thus form a graver potential impediment to economic and political reform than the military. Whereas the economic, social and even some of the defence systems in the post-Soviet republics have gone through reforms, the forces and institutional structures of the Ministries of the Interior have remained more or less the same; change has occurred only in their size which again does not imply larger or more transparent budgets.
  • Topic: Security, Government, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Central Asia
  • Author: Philipp Fluri
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: The countries of the Southern Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia) experienced seventy years of one-party centralized management of the security sector – a heritage they share with all other former Soviet Republics (though precise time spans vary). Independent state-building can be expected to be slow, and it has further been vexed by armed conflicts which are far from being permanently settled and which have led to considerable numbers of IDPs and refugees in Georgia and Azerbaijan. This specific situation has naturally slowed the build-up of security sectors much different from the local post-Soviet replica of the once union-wide complex of security services.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Government
  • Political Geography: Eastern Europe, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia
  • Author: Larry Watts
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: According to March 2002 poll, 60% of the Romanian population believe that their intelligence services – in particular the SRI (Serviciul roman de informatii – domestic security intelligence) and the SIE (Serviciul de informatii externe – foreign intelligence) – have been “transformed into democratic institutions on the western model.” 52% believe that the services are serving national interests in a politically-neutral fashion as opposed to partisan aims of the sitting government (32%), and 55% had a generally “good opinion” concerning their performance. 73% of the population believes that the services do not have too much power, and half of those believe they have too little power, while 74% believe that intelligence specialists remaining from before 1989 – about 15% of the SRI and 18% of the SIE – should be retained. Periodic polling by other agencies regularly rank the SRI just behind the church and the army, and ahead of the government and police, in terms of public trust.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Government
  • Political Geography: Romania
  • Author: Miroslav Hadzic
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: Unwilling to establish the principles of future relations in the joint state, the heads of the Federal, Serbian, and Montenegrin authorities, after being pressured by the European Union (EU), finally signed the Belgrade Agreement. Afterwards, they began to draft the Constitutional Charter of the joint state of Serbia and Montenegro. The entire project is based upon the supposition that this supra-national creation will only have delegated powers agreed to by member states. This infers that the Union will not have original sovereignty; rather Serbia and Montenegro will have it. The implementation of this solution will sever all ties with the federal organization of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia (FRY) and its predecessors, only simplifying matters, as Montenegro has already unilaterally excluded itself from the authority of federal bodies, and in that way, has practically abolished this state.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Government
  • Political Geography: Serbia, Montenegro
  • Author: Heiner Hänggi
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: Good governance of the security sector, when considered from a disarmament perspective, indicates linkages between two principal issue-areas in contemporary international politics, i.e. those of 'security' and 'governance'. These two issue-areas are closely intertwined, contributing to evolving definitions of the terms themselves. During the bipolar period, security was generally defined in 'hard' military terms. Following the end of the Cold War, the concept was broadened to include 'soft' and human security concerns. This was paralleled by a broadening of the concept of confidence-building measures to include, inter alia, the role of security forces in the society. The fundamental principles of good governance include transparency and accountability of the exercise of state power. The implementation of good governance of the security sector (including military, paramilitary, internal security forces, police, border guards, and intelligence services) is a long and often difficult process, and whether this can be achieved is dependent on the capability and willingness of the individual countries.
  • Topic: Security, Civil Society, Government, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Peter Gill
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: In the past thirty years throughout Europe, the Americas and more sporadically elsewhere the issue of how to institute some democratic control over security intelligence agencies has steadily permeated the political agenda. There have been two main reasons for this change. In what might be described as the 'old' democracies (North America, Western Europe, Australia and New Zealand) the main impetus for change was scandal involving abuses of power and rights by the agencies. Typically, these gave rise to legislative or judicial enquiries that resulted in new legal and oversight structures for the agencies, some of these achieved by statutes, others by executive orders. The best known examples of these are the U.S. congressional enquiries during 1975-76 (chaired by Senator Church and Representative Pike), Justice McDonald's enquiry into the RCMP Security Service in Canada (1977-81) and Justice Hope's into the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: Australia, North America, New Zealand, Western Europe
  • Author: Velizar Shalamanov
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: Security Sector Reform (SSR) is an essential part of transformation of the totalitarian states to democratic ones. Security was motive, tool and excuse for the Communist Parties to control totally the state, economy and society at all. As a result security sector - named Armed Forces was extremely large, powerful, secret (un-transparent), under communist party control and separated from society even using all the resources of the society, including young men for 2-3 years.
  • Topic: Security, Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: Europe, Bulgaria
  • Author: Marie Vlachová, Ladislav Halberštát
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces
  • Abstract: There is no doubt that the security situation in Europe changed dramatically during the last decade. Whilst total war has disappeared from the inventory of security threats, regional wars with devastating consequences for affected countries, are still topical. With ethnic hostility, organised crime and the world-wide terrorism list of non-military threats has become much wider. A widening gap between rich Western countries and their poor neighbours in Eastern and South Eastern Europe represents another serious danger, as well as do uncontrollable corruption in politically and economically weak regimes, the inability of states to protect their borders efficiently against trafficking, smuggling, illegal immigration and weapons proliferation, including weapons of mass destruction. Information warfare which results in serious damage being caused by attacks on the information systems of developed countries represents another relatively new security threat. Expertise in security political decision-making has become very important, and thus in the future, a shortage of competent specialists in governmental and parliamentary structures could affect states' ability to anticipate threats and make an adequate decision.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Government, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Europe, Czech Republic
  • Author: Hans-Jörg Trenz
  • Publication Date: 12-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Research Papers Archive
  • Abstract: The debate about the legitimacy of the EU and the possibilities of its democratisation has so far only rarely addressed the question of the role of the media. An instrumental approach prevails towards the media acknowledging that the so-called gap between the EU and its citizens is grounded in a communication deficit and that the EU should therefore strive towards a higher legitimacy in terms of public accountability, openness and participation, in other words of democracy. The paper discusses these technical aspects of public-sphere building from above in relation to the systematic constraints on mediatisation that result from the inertia of the existing (national) media spheres. On the basis of this, an alternative understanding of mediatisation and its ambivalent effects on the legitimacy of the EU will be developed. The proposal is that European public sphere research should focus on the more active role of the media as an independent variable that affects institutional choices and processes. Empirical results from comparative content analyses are discussed, which illustrate to what extent media have become an enabling and/or constraining factor of European integration..
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Frederic Mishkin, Guillermo Calvo
  • Publication Date: 11-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: European Union Studies Center
  • Abstract: This paper argues that much of the debate on choosing an exchange rate regime misses the boat. It begins by discussing the standard theory of choice between exchange rate regimes, and then explores the weaknesses in this theory, especially when it is applied to emerging market economies. It then discusses a range of institutional traits that might predispose a country to favor either fixed or floating rates, and then turns to the converse question of whether the choice of exchange rate regime may favor the development of certain desirable institutional traits. The conclusion from the analysis is that the choice of exchange rate regime is likely to be of second order importance to the development of good fiscal, financial, and monetary institutions in producing macroeconomic success in emerging market countries. This suggests that less attention should be focused on the general question whether a floating or a fixed exchange rate is preferable, and more on these deeper institutional arrangements. A focus on institutional reforms rather than on the exchange rate regime may encourage emerging market countries to be healthier and less prone to the crises that we have seen in recent years.
  • Topic: Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, Linda M. Gerber
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The failure of U.S. and British forces in Iraq to find evidence of weapons of mass destruction has sparked controversy on both sides of the Atlantic and in the wider international community. Two contending explanations have been offered for why the Bush administration made apparently questionable claims about weapons of mass destruction. The first alleges an intelligence failure. The best analysts in the CIA simply had no foolproof way of discerning what Saddam had. They gave the administration a wide-ranging set of estimates, from benign to worst-case, and, given the way bureaucracies behave, the president's advisors adopted the worse case scenario. The second claim, more odious in form and substance, is that the administration inflated and manipulated uncertain data, possibly even requesting that material sent to it be redone to fit preconceived notions. The Bush administration has gone to great pains to reassert that it stands by its previous pronouncements that prohibited weapons will be located in due time.
  • Topic: International Relations, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Alistair Millar, Morten Bremer Maerli
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: This report summarises the conference “NATO Nuclear Non-Proliferation Policies in a Changing Threat Environment” convened in, Oslo, 12 May 2003. The conference was co-organised by the Fourth Freedom Forum, the Norwegian Atlantic Committee, and the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. It was co-sponsored by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the Norwegian Ministry of Defence and the Ploughshares Foundation.
  • Topic: International Relations, NATO, Climate Change, Government, Nuclear Weapons
  • Author: Alistair Millar
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The Senate voted on May 20th to repeal a decade-long ban on researching the development of new, smaller nuclear weapons. The decision was a dangerous step in the wrong direction, signaling to the world that the United States will be increasing its reliance on nuclear weapons. According to Senator John Kyl, "In this new world, there could well be reason to have these weapons." But what reason could there be for developing and using nuclear weapons? Resuming research and development of new nuclear weapons will jeopardize, not enhance U.S. security.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, Nuclear Weapons
  • Political Geography: United States, America, North Korea
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, Linda M. Gerber
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The United States, the United Kingdom, and other nations claim that Iraq poses an imminent threat to international security because it has weapons of mass destruction and operational connections to the Al Qaeda terrorist network. U.S. Secretary of State Colin Powell asserted in his presentation to the Security Council on 5 February that Iraq has made no effort to disarm and is concealing efforts to redevelop weapons of mass destruction. Powell restated old allegations that the United States had made prior to the 8 November passage of Resolution 1441. He presented new intelligence about Iraqi efforts to conceal its weapons capabilities, and he reiterated previous information about the likely existence of chemical and biological agents from the 1990s, but he did not prove that there is a grave new threat from Iraqi weapons of mass destruction. Nor did he show a link between Iraq and September 11, or an operational connection between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism, United Nations, War
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, United Kingdom, Middle East
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, Linda M. Gerber, Karl Shelly
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The U.S. and other governments contend that the United Nations disarmament process in Iraq is not working, but an objective analysis shows that significant steps toward compliance have occurred. This report lists Iraqi efforts to cooperate with UN inspections while also identifying areas of inadequate compliance. The report also reviews the compliance mandates of Security Council Resolution 1441, notes whether Iraq has complied, and assesses Iraq's overall level of compliance.
  • Topic: Security, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: William D. Hartung
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: The Bush administration's war on terrorism and its proposed military intervention in Iraq have sparked the steepest increases in military and security spending in two decades. Since September 11, 2001, the federal government has approved over $110 billion in increased military spending and military aid. Spending on national defense is slated to reach $399 billion in the Fiscal Year 2004 budget, and to rise to over $500 billion annually by the end of this decade. These vast sums do not include the costs of the ongoing war in Afghanistan or a war with Iraq. Steven Kosiak of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments estimates that only 5 to 10 percent of the Fiscal Year 2003 Pentagon budget is being set aside for anti-terror activities and homeland security.
  • Topic: Security, Economics, Government, Terrorism, War
  • Political Geography: Afghanistan, United States, Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: Secretary of State Powell misrepresented the alleged terrorist training camp in northern Iraqi.Powell claimed and presented a photograph showing that a "terrorist poison and explosives factory" is located in Khurmal, a Kurdish village near the Iranian border. Local Kurdish officials allied with the United States told the New York Times that no such camp exists at that location. A senior official of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), which receives financial assistance from the United States, said he had no information about the compound. A local administrator for the group that controls Khurmal said Powell's claim was "not true."
  • Topic: Terrorism, War
  • Political Geography: United States, New York, Middle East
  • Author: David Cortright, Alistair Millar, George A. Lopez, Linda M. Gerber
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Fourth Freedom Forum
  • Abstract: After two months of increasingly intensive inspection activity, UN weapons monitors in Iraq, by their own account, have achieved considerable progress in establishing the disarmament process mandated in Security Council Resolution 1441 (2002). During his 27 January update to the Security Council, UN inspections chief Dr. Hans Blix reported that "Iraq has on the whole cooperated rather well so far" with UN inspectors. "It would appear from our experience so far that Iraq has decided in principle to provide cooperation on process, notably access." Although Baghdad has not fully disclosed its weapons activities as required by UN resolutions, and many unanswered questions remain, weapons inspectors have established an effective disarmament verification system in Iraq. They have asked for the "unified resolve" of the Security Council to support an ongoing inspection process. In contrast with the experience of UN weapons monitors during the early 1990s, the inspectors with the United Nations Monitoring, Verification and Inspection Commission (UNMOVIC) and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) have received unfettered access to Iraqi facilities and have been able to conduct more than 350 on-site inspections. They are employing the world's most advanced technology for detecting nuclear, chemical, or biological weapons and are installing an ongoing monitoring system that will provide permanent surveillance of Iraq's weapons activities.
  • Topic: United Nations, War, Weapons of Mass Destruction
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Middle East
  • Author: Richard Narich
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
  • Abstract: In the second part of the 20th century, the world's attention focused twice on Latin America, first during the Cuban crisis in 1962 and then during the conflicts in Central America in the Eighties and Nineties. The situation there had a direct impact on the general balance of the planet. It was a hot spot. Today this region is not on the agenda anymore: it no longer represents a global threat in terms of security.
  • Topic: Security, Defense Policy, Terrorism
  • Political Geography: Latin America, Central America
  • Author: Alan Gorowitz
  • Publication Date: 04-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies
  • Abstract: The beginning months of 2003 have witnessed historic moments in the evolution of the policies and visions of the European Union (EU) and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Southeast Europe. On March 30, 2003, NATO forces handed over responsibility for peacekeeping operations in Macedonia to a European Un i o n - l e d operation. Dubbed Operation Concordia, this operation marked an important victory toward harmonizing the effort s of the EU and NATO. Almost simultaneously, many countries of Southeast Europe were taking important steps toward integration into European structures: Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovenia signed the protocols for Accession to NATO in March 2003. Finally, many European leaders were pointing to the need for the EU to more fully develop its European Security and Defense Policy (ESDP) in order to better cope with world events .
  • Topic: Peace Studies, United Nations
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Neva Goodwin
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
  • Abstract: The concept of capital has a number of different meanings. It is useful to differentiate between five kinds of capital: financial, natural, produced, human, and social. All are stocks that have the capacity to produce flows of economically desirable outputs. The maintenance of all five kinds of capital is essential for the sustainability of economic development.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Treaties and Agreements
  • Author: Kevin Gallagher, Robin Taylor
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
  • Abstract: Although there is a burgeoning literature on the effects of international trade on the environment, relatively little work has been done on where trade most directly effects the environment: the transportation sector. This article shows how international trade is affecting criteria air pollution emissions in the United States' shipping sector. Recent work has shown that cargo ships have been long overlooked regarding their contribution to air pollution. Indeed, ship emissions have recently been deemed "the last unregulated source of traditional air pollutants."Air pollution from ships has a number of significant local, national, and global environmental effects. Building on past studies, we examine the economic costs of this increasing and unregulated form of environmental damage. We find that total emissions from ships are largely increasing due to the increase in foreign commerce (or international trade). We analyze the period 1993 to 2001 and find that the economic costs of SO2 pollution during the period are estimated to be $1.1 billion or $126 million per year. For NOx emissions the costs are $3.7 billion over the entire period or $412 million per year. Because foreign trade is driving the growth in U.S. shipping, we also estimate the effect of the Uruguay Round on emissions. Separating out the effects of global trade agreements reveals that the trade agreement- led emissions amount to $460 million for SO2 between 1993 and 2001, or $51 million per year. For NOx they are $1.2 billion for the whole period or $144 million per year. Without adequate policy responses, we predict that these trends and costs will continue to rise with trade flows into the future
  • Topic: Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: North America
  • Author: Kevin Gallagher, Francisco Aguayo
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
  • Abstract: Given increasing concern over global climate change and national security there is a burgeoning interest in examining the relationship between economic growth and energy use in developed and developing countries. More specifically, delinking energy use per unit of gross domestic product (GDP) has fast come to be seen as in the interests of national economies and the world as a whole. Recent attention has been paid to the dramatic decreases in the energy intensity of the Chinese economy, which fell by 55 percent between 1975 and 1995 (Sinton and Fridley, 2000). Do other developing economies follow similar trajectories?
  • Topic: Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: North America
  • Author: Frank Ackerman, Kevin Gallagher, Timothy Wise, Luke Ney, Regina Flores
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
  • Abstract: The North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) had a profound impact on corn trade between the United States and Mexico. Negotiated tariff reductions and the Mexican government's decision not to charge some tariffs to which it was entitled resulted in a doubling of US corn exports to Mexico. This paper examines the environmental implications of this change on both sides of the border.
  • Topic: Economics, Environment, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: North America, Mexico
  • Author: David Dapice
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
  • Abstract: In this paper, an extensive report on the economy of Myanmar prepared in 1998 is supplemented by more recent reports as of fall 2002 (included as appendices).
  • Topic: Agriculture, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Asia
  • Author: Neva Goodwin, Jonathan Harris
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
  • Abstract: Macroeconomic theory and policy are strongly based on the assumption that economic growth is a fundamental goal. The environmental realities of the twenty- first century compel a reassessment of macro theory in terms of the impact of current growth patterns on planetary ecosystems.
  • Topic: Agriculture, Development, Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Author: Mariano Torcal
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This paper focuses on the analysis of political disaffection. After discussing and defining this notion, the article shows that disaffection affects more widely, though not exclusively, third-wave democracies. The close link between levels of disaffection and the history of democratization in each country explains its higher incidence among new democracies. For this very reason, political disaffection could also run high among more established democracies. However, regardless of its incidence in each particular country, political disaffection reveals a distinctive nature in new democracies because of the absence of a democratic past in many of these cases. Thus, disaffection constitutes a key element to explain the lower propensity of citizens of new democracies to participate in every dimension of political activity.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, International Political Economy, Politics
  • Political Geography: Europe
  • Author: Gretchen Helmke, Steven Levitsky
  • Publication Date: 09-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: During the 1990s, comparative research on political institutions focused primarily on formal rules. Yet recent studies suggest that an exclusive focus on formal rules is often insufficient, and that informal institutions, ranging from bureaucratic and legislative norms to clientelism and patrimonialism, often have a profound—and systematic—effect on political outcomes. Neglecting these informal institutions thus risks missing many of the “real” incentives and constraints that underlie political behavior. This article seeks to move informal institutions from the margins to the mainstream of comparative politics research. It develops an initial framework for studying informal institutions and, importantly, integrating them into comparative institutional analysis. In the conceptual realm, the article attempts to clarify what is meant by “informal institution” and then develops a typology of four patterns of formal-informal institutional interaction: complementary, accommodating, competing, and substitutive. In the theoretical realm, the article examines two issues that have been largely unexplored in the literature on informal institutions: the question of why and how informal institutions emerge, and the sources of informal institutions stability and change. A final section explores some of the practical challenges inherent in research on informal institutions, including issues of identification, measurement, and comparison.
  • Topic: International Relations, Government, International Political Economy, Politics
  • Author: Iván Orozco
  • Publication Date: 05-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: This essay explores the relationships between vengeance, justice and reconciliation in contexts of war and transitions towards democracy, with a special emphasis and interest on the Colombian situation. It aims at easing, at least partly, the tensions facing peace makers and human rights activists who deal with the issue of “impunity” for atrocious crimes perpetrated by the state and other political organizations. It does so by distinguishing between vertical and horizontal processes of victimization and by distributing functions between peace makers and human rights activists in accord with this distinction. Based upon the premise that transitional Justice always entails a compromise between punishment, truth and reconciliation, the paper argues for a certain priority of punishment in contexts of vertical victimization and for a partial precedence of reconciliation in contexts of horizontal victimization. The notion of “gray areas” where the distinction between victims and perpetrators, best represented by certain kinds of “collaborators” and, “avengers” collapses, lies at the heart of the logics of forgiveness and reconciliation. After characterizing the Colombian conflict as a case of horizontal victimization—i.e., symmetric barbarism—the paper proposes a model of transitional justice for Colombia built on the primacy of truth and forgiveness for the inhabitants of gray zones and punishment for the engineers and managers of barbarism.
  • Topic: Democratization, Government
  • Political Geography: Colombia, South America
  • Author: Benito Nacif
  • Publication Date: 03-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Without a majority in the Congress, the president's party looses the ability to direct policy change. With only one-third of the vote, the president's party can prevent any initiative from turning into law. Individual opposition parties gain influence under divided government but lack the power to veto policy change. Contrary to what critics of Presidentialism have argued, political parties in presidential regimes do not lack in incentives to cooperate and build policymaking coalitions. Coalition building depends on the potential gains of cooperation that both the president's party and the opposition parties can capture if they modify the status quo. Two sufficient conditions for coalition building can be identified: an extreme position of the status quo, and the location of the president's party at the median position. This explains law change and the size of lawmaking coalitions under divided government in Mexico.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: North America, Mexico
  • Author: Edward Schatz
  • Publication Date: 02-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Capital relocation (i.e., the physical move of the central state apparatus from one location to another) is an unusual tool for nation and state building. Yet, it is used more frequently than we might expect. Thus, when Kazakhstan shifted its capital city in 1997 from Almaty to Astana the move was unique in that post-Soviet region, but not as uncommon in other post-colonial cases. This paper examines the move of the capital in Kazakhstan suggests that this move was designed to address particularly acute nation-and state-building challenges. If the Kazakhstan experience seems strange in de-Sovietization, this tells us much about the different nature of post-Soviet space versus other post-colonial contexts. The relative in frequency of capital moves implies that the challenges of nation and state building in the ex-USSR—as daunting as they have proved to be—are generally not as acute as in those of other post-colonial contexts.
  • Topic: Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Russia, Central Asia, Kazakhstan
  • Author: Francisco Zapata
  • Publication Date: 01-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Kellogg Institute for International Studies
  • Abstract: Economic adjustment policies, trade liberalization, privatization of State enterprise and transformation of labor markets and labor market institutions relate to a process of transition between a model of import substitution industrialization and a "new economic model" characterized by the transnationalization of Latin American internal markets. All these elements contribute to change the premises of the organization of unions and to weaken their role in the negotiation of salaries and working conditions, their intervention in the regulation of employment and their participation in the administration of social security and health benefits. On the basis of the cases of Brazil, Chile and Mexico, the presentation will provide a context in which to pose the question of the crisis of Latin American labor and examine some of the alternatives that are available for trade unions in the new economic conditions.
  • Topic: Industrial Policy, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Brazil, South America, Central America, North America, Mexico, Chile
  • Author: Lawrence Brunner, Stephen M. Colarelli
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Independent Institute
  • Abstract: The unemployment compensation system in the United States is out of date and in trouble. The system has four fundamental problems: (1) during recessions, it often cannot meet its financial obligations without federal aid or deficit spending; (2) it is out of step with the structural and cultural realities of the modern workforce; (3) it encourages layoffs and unemployment; and (4) it operates in isolation from other programs related to employment and financial security. We propose an alternative unemployment policy based on the individual unemployment account (IUA). The IUA would be a mandatory and portable individual trust to which the employer and employee contributed. It shifts control and responsibility from the employer and the state government to the employer and the employee, and it is compatible with the realities of a twenty-first-century economy. We begin by providing an overview of how the current unemployment insurance system works and discussing its problems. We then describe an alternative unemployment policy based on IUAs and discuss the benefits of such a policy.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Human Welfare
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Istituto Affari Internazionali
  • Abstract: The evolution of a European space policy is encouraged by the recent EU decision to develop the Galileo project. This decision confirms the willingness to pursue a policy in the space technologies that goes beyond the national level, even if national visions are still predominant. A new security concept is emerging. The evolution of the foreign, security and defense policy (CFSP, ESDP) and the protection of population requires integrated approach.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: Europe, Middle East
  • Author: Roberto Aliboni
  • Publication Date: 10-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Istituto Affari Internazionali
  • Abstract: This paper deals with the impact of the Iraqi crisis on Mediterranean dynamics. Four such dynamics are taken into consideration, assuming their particular significance: (a) the Israeli- Palestinian conflict and, more broadly, the opposition between Israel and the Arab-Muslim countries; (b) the stability of regional regimes and their transition to democracy; (c) the development of the EU Mediterranean policies and their relevance in the region; (d) Turkey's national and regional interests.
  • Topic: Security
  • Political Geography: Iraq, Turkey, Middle East, Arabia
  • Publication Date: 06-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Istituto Affari Internazionali
  • Abstract: This document is intended to: highlight the main achievements of the Constitutional Treaty drafted by the European Convention which should be fully endorsed by the Intergovernmental Conference (IGC); emphasise some critical points of the Draft Constitutional Treaty that need to be revised to ensure an effective functioning of the European Union, avoid the risk of a decision-making paralysis and make possible future constitutional adaptations; suggest further modifications to the Draft Constitutional Treaty which appear necessary for a truly, effective constitutional reform of the Union.
  • Topic: Security, International Organization
  • Political Geography: Europe, Italy
  • Author: Robert Muggah
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: There is considerable disagreement in academic and policy circles about what precisely constitutes internal displacement and resettlement – when it begins and ends, what kinds of rights to protection and assistance such people are entitled to, how it can be measured and understood, and who should be responsible for managing it.
  • Topic: Development, Human Welfare, Migration
  • Author: Heiko Wimmen
  • Publication Date: 07-2003
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Social Science Research Council
  • Abstract: HW: Professor Peled, during the two years of Ariel Sharon's tenure as prime minister, Israel has seen a steep economic decline, and a rapidly deteriorating security situation. Yet Mr. Sharon enjoys more support than any Israeli head of government for a long time. What do you make of this paradox?
  • Topic: Government, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Middle East, Israel, Palestine