- CIAO Search Results

34501. Summits Galore, But (Mostly) Business as Usual

Author:: Brad Glosserman and Ralph A. Cossa
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: While events in Paris and San Bernardino refocused the international community’s attention on terrorism, it was largely business as usual in Asia, with the normal round of multilateral meetings – the Association of East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Summit, US-ASEAN Summit, East Asia Summit (EAS), and ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting Plus (ADMM+) in Kuala Lumpur, plus the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Leaders Meeting in Manila – going largely unnoticed. A few other summits did attract attention, including the first “Plus Three” (Japan-Korea-China) Summit in three years (which included the first direct one-on-one summit between ROK President Park and Japan Prime Minister Abe) in Seoul and the “non-summit” between Mr. Xi Jinping and Mr. Ma Ying-Jeou who just happen to be the presidents, respectively, of the People’s Republic of China and Republic of China, in Singapore. Chinese actions (and US reactions) in the South China Sea continued to dominate the news, while hopes that Kim Jong-Un was on the brink of behaving were quickly dashed as the new year began. All eyes remain on the Chinese economy and the impact the continuing slowdown there may have on global growth, even as the US pushes forward on the finally completed (but not yet Congressionally-approved) Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Territorial Disputes, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and South China Sea

34502. Official Cooperation, Domestic Challenges

Author:: Charles McClean and Sheila A. Smith
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Washington and Tokyo made significant progress on two new initiatives this fall – Japan’s implementation of legislation for the exercise of collective self-defense and the conclusion of negotiations with other participants in the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). With Japanese Upper House elections in the summer and US presidential elections in the fall, trade, military strategy, and US-Japan security cooperation will be part of the political discourse in both countries. Along with the ratification process for the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal, two challenges for Washington and Tokyo that will continue into the new year are how to respond to Chinese land reclamation in the South China Sea and how to deal with local opposition to Tokyo’s plans for building a new airfield to replace the Futenma facility on Okinawa. Two challenges to Washington and Tokyo will continue into the new year. The first is how to respond to Chinese land reclamation in the South China Sea. Military leaders from Japan and the US discussed China’s accelerated building in the Spratly Islands, and the Japanese role in a regional response was on the agenda when Prime Minister Abe and President Obama met on the sidelines of the APEC meeting in Manila. The USS Lassen’s freedom of navigation operation near Subi Reef on Oct. 27 was welcomed by Tokyo, but there is no suggestion yet that Japan is willing to conduct similar operations in the South China Sea. The second challenge is far from new, but local opposition to Tokyo’s plans for building a new airfield to replace the Futenma facility operated by the US Marines has risen again. The central government filed a legal suit directed at Okinawa in November, and then Gov. Onaga Takeshi filed his own civil suit against the central government in December. This battle in the courts over new base construction in Oura Bay is the second legal showdown between the prefecture and Tokyo over who has the authority to control decision making on base consolidation in Okinawa.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

34503. Xi’s First State Visit to US: Pomp and Progress

Author:: Bonnie S. Glaser and Jacqueline Vitello
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Despite growing friction between the US and China on a number of issues, Xi Jinping’s state visit to the US in September was mostly positive and produced important outcomes on climate change, cyber security, and avoiding accidents between military aircraft. Tensions persisted in the South China Sea with China unwilling to stop its construction and militarization of terraformed reefs. The USS Lassen, a US Navy guided-missile destroyer, exercised international rights of freedom of navigation by sailing within 12nm of Chinese-occupied Subi Reef. The Obama administration notified Congress of its intent to sell a $1.83 billion arms package to Taiwan prompting Chinese objections, but no suspension of bilateral military exchanges. Presidents Obama and Xi met again on the margins of the Paris climate change conference in late November. They also conferred by phone, helping to conclude an historic, ambitious, global, agreement to reduce emissions at COP21.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

34504. Summitry, Strength, and a Fourth Nuclear Test

Author:: Stephen Noerper
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The final months of 2015 saw hedging around South Korea’s relationship with China, strong support for the US-ROK alliance in the face of DPRK threats, a US-ROK summit, and heightened concern as North Korea prepared for a fourth nuclear test, which came on Jan. 6. With the US and South Korea watching closely for signs of a missile or nuclear test, North Korea marked the 70th anniversary of its Workers Party on Oct. 10 without incident. The US-ROK presidential summit appeared solid, with a joint statement against the North Korean nuclear and missile threats and shared concern over DPRK human rights violations. The US again took up the issue of DPRK human rights violations at the UN Security Council in December as reports of possible purges in North Korea continued to attract US and ROK attention. The US was pleased in late December by an agreement between South Korea and Japan on “comfort women.”
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

34505. Commitment Concerns

Author:: Sheldon Simon
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: US relations with Southeast Asia encompassed all three pillars of its rebalance to Asia: military presence, multilateral diplomacy, and economic engagement. Militarily, the freedom of navigation voyage of the USS Lassen past China’s artificial islands occurred while the Department of Defense announced a $425 million five-year military aid program for Southeast Asian states and the White House committed an additional $259 million in military support for Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. Diplomatic engagements included visits to the region by the president, the secretaries of state and defense, and a number of senior aides to attend multilateral meetings. Commitment to the economic pillar led to the conclusion of negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement. If ratified by the signatories, the TPP would be the most comprehensive trade and investment arrangement in the world, though a number of obstacles in many of the countries do not portend a quick or easy confirmation.
Topic:: Security, Economics, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Asia, North America, Southeast Asia, and United States of America

34506. Limited Moderation amid Pressure and Complaints

Author:: Chin-Hao Huang and Robert G. Sutter
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: President Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Keqiang led Chinese government officials in responding in measured and moderate ways to regional challenges and criticisms as Beijing defended South China Sea claims and advanced its regional influence. Moderation after a period of strong assertiveness replicates similar shifts in 2013 and 2014. Those shifts turned out to be tactical, lasting a few months each; possibly timed to avoid negative consequences for Chinese leaders facing public acrimony during the APEC, ASEAN and East Asian Summit meetings that occur each fall. Developments in 2015 suggest a more lasting period of moderation, though there is no sign of change in the Chinese positions on various disputes.
Topic:: Security, Territorial Disputes, Governance, Leadership, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China and Asia

34507. A Meeting and a Campaign

Author:: David G. Brown and Kevin Scott
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: General Secretary Xi Jinping and President Ma Ying-jeou held the historic first Cross-Strait Leaders Meeting in Singapore, capping seven years of collaborative work to build stable and constructive cross-strait relations. On Taiwan, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has conducted a well-run campaign, likely leading on Jan. 16 to Tsai Ing-wen winning a strong majority mandate in the presidential election and the KMT and its allies losing control of the Legislative Yuan (LY) for the first time. After the election, Tsai and Xi will share responsibility for avoiding a confrontation that is in neither of their interests.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Elections, and Campaigning
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

34508. Pyongyang’s Bang Explodes Hope

Author:: Aidan Foster-Career
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: 2016 in Korea began with a bang. Though unlikely to be the hydrogen bomb it claims, North Korea’s fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6 makes certain that inter-Korean ties will not get better any time soon. The last four months of 2015 saw disappointingly little progress on the six-point accord reached in late August to improve relations. The sole substantial outcome was a fresh round of reunions of separated families. However, no further reunions have been arranged or even discussed. Civilian exchanges did pick up to a degree, but this remained fairly light traffic, and wholly one-way; no North Koreans were reported as visiting the South. Even though the August accord specified holding high-level talks “at an early date,” such talks did not take place until December, and then only between vice ministers. It was hard to be optimistic that 2016 would prove any better, even before the DPRK detonation exploded such slim hope as might have remained. Clause 1 of August’s accord specified holding high-level talks “at an early date, to improve north-south ties and have multi-faceted dialogue and negotiations in the future.” Such talks did not take place until December, and then only between vice-minister level officials. Far from improving relations or leading to further dialogue, these two days of talks yielded absolutely nothing: no joint statement, nor any schedule to meet again. Predictably each side blamed the other. On this basis it was hard to be optimistic that 2016 would prove any better, even before Jan. 6’s DPRK detonation exploded such slim hope as might have remained.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, and Korean Peninsula

34509. A Complex China-ROK Partnership

Author:: Scott Snyder and See-Won Byun
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The September China-ROK summit in Beijing catalyzed the resumption of trilateral talks with Japan in October and the launch of the China-ROK Free Trade Agreement in December. Beijing’s Korean engagement also included a visit to North Korea in October by Politburo Standing Committee member Liu Yunshan for 70th anniversary celebrations of the founding of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK). The visit was credited with preventing a rocket launch by Pyongyang that had reportedly been planned to mark the anniversary. Meanwhile, Pyongyang’s reached out to Beijing with a “friendship tour” to China led by Choe Hwi. Despite new initiatives to expand economic cooperation, Pyongyang’s apparent defiance of Chinese diplomatic efforts on denuclearization suggests further difficulties in Sino-DPRK relations.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and North Korea

34510. Moving in the Right Direction

Author:: James J Przystup
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Senior political and diplomatic contacts expanded in late 2015. Prime Minister Abe met Premier Li in October and President Xi briefly in November. Meanwhile, maritime issues dominated the policy agenda: China’s natural gas exploration in the East China Sea, incursions into Japan’s territorial waters near the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, and China’s land reclamation projects in the South China Sea. History issues also punctuated the period – the September victory parade in Beijing, at UNESCO, and the anniversary of the Nanjing Massacre in December. Nevertheless, there was a general sense that relations were moving in the right direction.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

34511. A Litigious Time of the Year

Author:: David C. Kang and Jiun Bang
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The overarching theme for the end of the year was litigation. The trial of Kato Tatsuya (former Seoul bureau chief for Sankei Shimbun) led to his acquittal for criminal libel. The trial of Park Yu-ha, a professor at Sejong University charged with defamation for her 2013 book Comfort Women of the Empire began in December. The General Association of Korean Residents in Japan (Chongryon) and its affiliates faced three separate lawsuits in Japan and South Korea. A Korean was arrested and later indicted for his role in placing a bomb at Yasukuni Shrine. There were also competing interpretations of the international status of North Korean refugees in the case of contingencies. The much-awaited November Park-Abe summit was quickly tested by incidents that could easily strain relations. To the credit of Seoul and Tokyo, neither government let a single issue damage the relationship. In fact, the two ended up reaching an accord on “comfort women/sex slaves” at yearend. Despite immediate praise from the US, there was considerable frustration from both publics over the agreement.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Leadership, Peace, Justice, and Judiciary
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and South Korea

34512. Into the Syrian Storm: Between Alliance and Alignment

Author:: Yu Bin
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: In the final months of 2015, China-Russia interaction started with President Putin’s state visit to China and ended with the 20th annual prime ministerial meeting in Beijing. While Putin’s visit was full of historical and geopolitical symbolism, the prime ministers meeting was geared for substance, aiming to energize bilateral economic relations against the backdrop of Western sanctions against Russia and China’s economic slowdown. In between, Chinese and Russian leaders met at multilateral forums, and a $2-billion sale of 24 Russian Sukhoi-35 fighter-bombers to China after eight years of negotiations was finalized. Meanwhile, the world witnessed Russia’s intervention in the Syrian civil war, the European refugee crisis, the Paris massacre, and the rise of anti-establishment forces across the West. The apparent warming of Sino-Russian relations led to another round of questions: were they moving toward an anti-West alliance?
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Syria

34513. A Full Year of “Acting East”

Author:: Satu Limaye
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: India-East Asia relations during 2015 offered a perspective on the first full year of India “Acting East.” India took important steps to shore up ties with several Asia-Pacific countries while also creating new relationships. While India-East Asia relations saw no ground-breaking developments, Prime Minister Modi continues to emphasize the political and strategic dimensions of India’s East Asia outreach – particularly in the maritime domain. An official review of India’s foreign relations released in late December provided a perspective on the priority that the Modi administration has been giving to East Asia.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Economics, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: India, East Asia, and Asia

34514. Déjà Vu All Over Again … Only Worse!

Author:: Brad Glosserman and Ralph A. Cossa
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: North Korea mixed things up a bit in early 2016, this time starting with a nuclear test – its fourth – and then following up a month later with a missile test/satellite launch; usually the order is reversed. Other than that it was déjà vu all over again, only worse. There were also a number of shorter-range ballistic missile launches and the usual threats (with graphic video), while the prospects for dialogue seemed to dim even further. Meanwhile, Chinese activities in the South China Sea (SCS) are being described by everyone (except Beijing) as further militarization of its artificial islands, as everyone (except Beijing) eagerly awaits the ruling by the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague on a case the Philippines has brought against China’s SCS claims – Beijing has already preemptively rejected the Court’s jurisdiction, so no happy ending appears in store for anyone. The G7 also weighed in on the SCS issue, much to China’s dismay. It’s for certain the G20 won’t (since China is host this year). The AIIB is taking shape, with most worries not being realized. Finally, after eight months of listening to pundits predict that the Trump phenomenon was sure to fade, Donald Trump has become the “presumptive” Republican nominee. His opponent seems likely to be former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in what is shaping up to be a battle of the known versus the unknown (and largely unpredictable).
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:: China, Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

34515. 2016 Opens with a Bang

Author:: Charles McClean and Sheila A. Smith
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The US-Japan relationship was relatively steady in the early months of 2016 until the US presidential primaries began to stir things up. For the first time in decades, Japan became the focus of debate on the campaign trail when Donald Trump began to single out Japan on trade and on security cooperation. There was also a setback on the Futenma replacement facility when construction was halted following a compromise between the central government and Okinawa that calls for a court decision on how to proceed. Nevertheless, the two governments continued to refine alliance coordination in the face of North Korea’s nuclear test and missile launches and pursued maritime cooperation as Beijing’s behavior in the South China Sea continued to roil regional waters. With major elections on the horizon, both countries are likely to be consumed by politics in the coming months. The United States and Japan continued to refine alliance coordination in the face of North Korea’s renewed nuclear testing and missile launches. Tokyo and Washington also continued their maritime cooperation as Beijing’s behavior in the South China Sea continued to roil regional waters. Japan suffered an unexpected setback in its cooperation with Australia, however, as its bid to provide Canberra with its next-generation conventional subs was outdone by the French offer. The Futenma base standoff with Gov. Onaga took an unexpected turn when Prime Minister Abe Shinzo announced suddenly that he and the governor had agreed to a compromise settlement. Tokyo would halt construction and Naha would agree to merge the court cases and would fully comply with the court decision on how to proceed. Politics now consume both countries as both Japan and the US face elections later this year. Anticipation that Abe would call a double election this summer ended after Chief Cabinet Secretary Suga Yoshihide declared that only the regularly scheduled Upper House election would be held so that the government could concentrate on recovery efforts in Kumamoto Kyushu, the site of a deadly earthquake. Economic growth continues to elude the Abe Cabinet, and the prime minister still confronts the prospect of an additional consumption tax hike in the spring of 2017. In the US, the primaries are winding down with Donald Trump the expected nominee for the Republican Party and Hillary Clinton in the lead for nomination by the Democratic Party. The US-Japan alliance seems already to be suffering from “Trump shocks” even before the election decides the next US president.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Nuclear Weapons, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

34516. Navigating Friction, Forging Cooperation

Author:: Alexandra Viers and Bonnie S. Glaser
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The South China Sea remained the most contentious issue in the US-China relationship in the early months of 2016. North Korea’s fourth nuclear test and missile launches posed both a challenge and an opportunity. After two months of intense consultations, the US and China struck a deal that led to unprecedentedly tough sanctions on Pyongyang. Xi Jinping attended the Nuclear Security Summit in Washington DC at the end of March and met President Obama. Their joint statements called for cooperation on nuclear security and climate change. Relations between the militaries hit a snag as Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter postponed a planned visit to China and Beijing rejected a request for a US aircraft carrier battle group to visit Hong Kong. Talks continued on a bilateral investment treaty, but China failed to submit a new “negative list,” leaving prospects uncertain for concluding a BIT by the end of Obama’s term.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, Conflict, and Rivalry
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and South China Sea

34517. Fire, Ire, and Exercises

Author:: Stephen Noerper
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: US and South Korean concerns spiked in early 2016 as North Korea demonstrated worrying advances in nuclear weapon and missile technology. Despite a rather placid New Year address, Kim Jong Un raised international alarm with the DPRK’s fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6. A month later, North Korea launched a three-stage rocket, a direct violation of a UN missile ban. The US Congress passed more rigorous sanctions legislation, seeking to stem financial flows and punish second-party facilitators. On March 3, UN Security Council Resolution 2270 calling for tougher sanctions passed unanimously. Seoul added its own unilateral sanctions on March 8. Meanwhile, Kim Jong Un’s display of a nuclear device and reentry technology, failed intermediate-range missile tests, and a successful submarine-launched ballistic missile test added to growing concerns. ROK President Park Geun-hye called for additional multilateral efforts. While North Korea is pushing back hard, some suggest its provocations and rhetoric may be for foreign consumption in the lead-up to the highly anticipated Party Congress in May, a first in 36 years.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

34518. ASEAN Centrality?

Author:: Sheldon Simon
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The mid-February ASEAN-US Summit was the Obama administration’s effort to show ASEAN’s central role in the US rebalance to Asia. It was only partially successful. Several new business initiatives were inaugurated to link US and ASEAN entrepreneurs. However, security cooperation hardly advanced. While maritime security was included in the joint declaration, there was no mention of US freedom of navigation (FON) patrols or the South China Sea disputes. In January, the Philippine Supreme Court cleared the way for the Philippine-US Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement, allowing US forces rotational access to several Philippine military bases and enhancing interoperability. Washington plans to increase the frequency and “complexity” of FON patrols near the artificial islands built by China, and the US has begun joint patrols with Philippine ships. Washington also announced a Southeast Asian Maritime Security Initiative that includes a $425 million multi-year appropriation for regional capacity to improve maritime domain awareness and patrols.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Economics, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, and Maritime
Political Geography:: Asia, North America, and United States of America

34519. South China Sea, More Tension and Challenges

Author:: Chin-Hao Huang and Robert G. Sutter
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Relations in early 2016 were dominated by China’s unremitting efforts to expand its control in disputed territory in the South China Sea in the face of complaints, maneuvers, and challenges by regional governments and concerned powers. US-led challenges to Chinese expansion included expanded military presence and freedom of navigation operations accompanied by strong rhetoric from US defense leaders warning of Chinese ambitions. The constructive outcome of the US-China meeting on March 31 reinforced indications that neither Washington nor Beijing sought confrontation. Against that background, the responses of Southeast Asian governments remained measured. They followed past patterns of ambiguous hedging against China’s assertiveness, demonstrating some increased criticism of China, and greater willingness to link more closely with the US to dissuade China’s disruptive expansionism.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, United States of America, and South China Sea

34520. Taiwan Sets a New Direction

Author:: David G. Brown and Kevin Scott
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen was elected president on Jan. 16 by a decisive margin, and for the first time the DPP won a majority in the Legislative Yuan (LY) election. This outcome has set Taiwan on a new course. Since then, Tsai has adhered to her pledge to maintain the status quo and peace in the Taiwan Strait and has taken steps to continue reaching out to Beijing. Beijing reacted calmly to the election and has repeatedly said the election will not change the basic framework of its peaceful development policy toward Taiwan. However, Beijing is waging a focused campaign to press Tsai to accept the 1992 Consensus in her inaugural address on May 20. Even if she does not fully meet Beijing’s demands, as is expected, it will be in the interest of both sides to avoid confrontation after May 20 in what is likely to be a strained relationship.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Development, Military Strategy, Elections, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

34521. Sunshine’s Final Sunset? Maybe Not

Author:: Aidan Foster-Career
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: North Korea’s decision to start the new year with its fourth nuclear test guaranteed a downturn in inter-Korean ties. Its successful satellite launch in early February, which also served as a partial ballistic missile test, was the last straw for South Korea, which appeared to finally run out of patience. On Feb. 10 President Park announced the suspension – but in all probability, permanent closure – of the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC): the last surviving North-South joint venture from the “Sunshine” Era of engagement. But, parliamentary elections in April saw a rebuff for Park’s conservative ruling Saenuri Party. This increases the center-left’s chances of regaining the Blue House in late 2017 and a return of some form of outreach to Pyongyang. Right now it is sunset for “Sunshine” on the Peninsula, but the sun may yet rise again. Never say never in Korea. The usual China-US discord over tactics and wording meant it took almost two months for the UN Security Council (UNSC) to agree a new resolution and fresh sanctions. Finally adopted (unanimously, as always) on March 2, UNSCR 2270 imposed measures much more severe than any previously applied to North Korea. Meanwhile on the specifically inter-Korean front, which is our focus here, the big event was the Feb. 10 suspension – but in all probability, permanent closure – of the Kaesong Industrial Complex (KIC): the last surviving North-South joint venture from the “Sunshine” Era of engagement (1998-2007). Kaesong has shut before, in April 2013 when Pyongyang abruptly pulled out its 55,000 workers. On that occasion South Korea’s then newly elected President, Park Geun-hye, worked patiently and successfully to mend fences, and the zone reopened five months later in September. (All this was of course fully chronicled and analyzed in Comparative Connections at the time.) This time it is Park who has pulled the plug on Kaesong, as discussed in detail below. With all trade and aid now cancelled, as of May 2016 the two Koreas have no contact of any kind, but have reverted to mutual hostility comparable to the height of the Cold War. Infuriating as the North’s nuclear recidivism is, it is hard to see this “back to the future” trajectory as any kind of progress. With Pyongyang’s insults of Park plumbing new depths of juvenile smut, the standoff looks set to last for the remainder of her term of office, which ends Feb. 25, 2018; her successor – a second term is not permitted – will be elected on Dec. 19, 2017. So a lengthy freeze looms – but despite current appearances, not necessarily a permanent one. Parliamentary elections on April 13 saw an unexpected rebuff for Park’s conservative ruling Saenuri Party, which lost its majority in the National Assembly, and a striking win for South Korea’s liberal opposition, even though it is currently split into two parties. This increases the center-left’s chances of regaining the Blue House in late 2017, after a decade in opposition. If that happens, then from 2018 some form of outreach to Pyongyang is likely to resume, albeit probably more cautious than the full-blown engagement pursued during the “Sunshine” decade (1998-2007) by Kim Dae-jung and his successor Roh Moo-hyun. Right now it is sunset for “Sunshine” on the Peninsula, but the sun may yet rise again. Never say never in Korea.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

34522. New Sanctions, Old Dilemmas

Author:: Scott Snyder and See-Won Byun
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January and long-range rocket launch in February drew global opposition in the form of UN Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 2270 and condemnation by regional leaders. Pyongyang, however, promptly dismissed such calls with a series of short- and mid-range missile launches in March and April. Presidents Xi Jinping and Park Geun-hye expressed support for full implementation of UN sanctions in bilateral talks at the Nuclear Security Summit (NSS) in Washington. Foreign Ministers Wang Yi and Yun Byung-se pledged their commitment to denuclearization at the fifth Foreign Ministers Meeting of the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia (CICA) in Beijing on April 27-28, where Xi declared that China “will absolutely not permit war or chaos on the peninsula.” Despite Beijing’s hardened rhetoric, current tensions on the Korean Peninsula point to enduring differences between Beijing and Seoul’s strategic preferences.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Economics, Military Strategy, Sanctions, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and North Korea

34523. Staying on a Test Course

Author:: James J. Przystup
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Citing his November meeting with Premier Li as evidence, Prime Minister Abe found relations with China improving in his Diplomatic Report to the Diet. Chinese officials took a more cautious view. While acknowledging progress, China’s ambassador to Japan called attention to unstable elements in the relationship and Foreign Minister Wang Yi accused Japan of “double dealing” in its relations with China. Issues related to the East China Sea and the South China Sea continued to trouble the relationship. Chinese Coast Guard ships made incursions into Japan’s territorial waters in the Senkakus while Japan continued to strengthen its military presence in Okinawa and the southwest islands. The foreign ministers met at the end of April.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, and Leadership
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

34524. Mostly Sanctions, Some Commerce, and Elections

Author:: David C. Kang and Jiun Bang
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The beginning of a new year offers an opportunity to evaluate how circumstances change. While the first few months of 2015 conveyed (cautious) optimism amidst notable celebrations like the anniversary of the restoration of diplomatic relations between Japan and South Korea and the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, there was no focal point in early 2016 to push the momentum toward greater cooperation for Seoul and Tokyo. The main difference to the start of this year was the dominance of the Japan-North Korea dyad. Perhaps the Jan. 6 nuclear test by Pyongyang was a foreshadowing of things to come, as relations with Tokyo remained rather tumultuous: several missile tests by Pyongyang combined with retributive actions on the part of Tokyo made progress on the abduction issue – arguably Japan’s top priority vis-à-vis the North (alongside denuclearization) – extremely unlikely.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, Military Strategy, Bilateral Relations, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and South Korea

34525. H-Bomb Plus THAAD Equals Sino-Russian Alliance?

Author:: Yu Bin
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The first months of 2016 witnessed a significant escalation of tension in Northeast Asia following North Korea’s fourth nuclear test on Jan. 6. The test, coupled with renewed US-ROK interest in deploying the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system, presented China and Russia with a “double-layered predicament”: nuclear proliferation on the heavily militarized Korean Peninsula and a direct threat to their nuclear deterrence posture. Meanwhile, talk of a Sino-Russia alliance was back on track in China. In reality, however policies of the two powers seemed to go in different directions. Russia continued to surprise the world, including China, over its involvement in Syria. For China, the “One Belt, One Road” initiative took Xi Jinping to three major Muslim nations (Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt) in January. China also dispatched its own Syrian special envoy and initiated a mini-security alliance with Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Kyrgyzstan to the displeasure of Moscow. By the end of April, the two countries announced they would conduct their first-ever joint anti-missile drills in Russia.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

34526. Incremental, But Groundbreaking Steps

Author:: Catharin Dalpino
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Two objectives drive Japan’s increasing engagement with Southeast Asia: stimulating Japanese economic growth through investment in large-scale infrastructure abroad, and supporting regional maritime domain awareness. While Tokyo officially denies any suggestion of rivaling or checking China with these policies, the timing and nature of Japan’s “pivot” to Southeast Asia would suggest otherwise. The number of “first-ever” Japanese defense initiatives with Southeast Asian countries in the past year, correspond to rising concern in the region over China’s moves in the South China Sea. New developments in regional security relations reflect a revision of Japanese defense guidelines and of the US-Japanese alliance, both of which emphasize greater interaction with regional partners. On the economic side, Japan and China are in direct competition for infrastructure projects in Southeast Asia, particularly in Myanmar. This will likely be the case for the next several years as ASEAN seeks to undergird the ASEAN Economic Community with new transportation grids. New developments in regional security relations reflect a revision of Japanese defense guidelines and of the US-Japanese alliance, both of which emphasize greater interaction with regional partners. New guidelines have enabled the Japan Self-Defense Forces to deepen their engagement with Southeast Asian militaries. For several years, the Japanese Coast Guard (JCG) was the primary institution for maritime cooperation in the region. There is still considerable scope for JCG cooperation with its Southeast Asian counterparts, but the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force appears to be positioned to become the lead agency over time. On the economic side, Japan and China are in direct competition for infrastructure projects in Southeast Asia, particularly in Myanmar. This will likely be the case for the next several years as ASEAN seeks to undergird the ASEAN Economic Community with new transportation grids. Although Japan will enjoy some advantage over China with Vietnam and Malaysia when and if the Trans-Pacific Partnership becomes fully operational, the three countries with the most ambitious infrastructure plans – Myanmar, Thailand, and Indonesia – will not be TPP members for several years, if ever.
Topic:: Diplomacy, International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Maritime Commerce, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

34527. Rule of/by Law?

Author:: Brad Glosserman and Ralph A. Cossa
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The rule of law took a few huge hits during the year’s second trimester, as Beijing chose to ignore the UNCLOS Arbitral Tribunal’s ruling that negated many of its South China Sea claims, while Pyongyang displayed its usual disdain for the latest UN Security Council Resolution 2270 with a series of ballistic missile launches, highlighted by a submarine-launched ballistic missile test. There were also a number of significant multilateral forums addressing regional security and economic issues, or both. Most in some form also touched upon the South China Sea and Korean Peninsula, even as ASEAN danced around the Tribunal’s ruling. Meanwhile in the battle of who gets to make trade rules, the Chinese-backed Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) seemed to fare only slightly better than the US-driven Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the objection to which seems to be the only thing the two US presidential candidates agree upon.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Territorial Disputes, Maritime, Conflict, and Rule of Law
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

34528. Hiroshima to The Hague

Author:: Charles McClean and Sheila A. Smith
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: President Obama and Prime Minister Abe traveled to Hiroshima, where Obama took the opportunity to speak of the devastating consequences of war in the nuclear era. The summer months that followed were full of politics, with an Upper House election in Japan in July and the Republican and Democratic Party conventions in the US kicking off the general election campaign for president. The Obama administration continued to work toward congressional passage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership at the end of the year. With less political contention but growing skepticism over Washington’s ability to ratify the agreement, the Abe Cabinet decided to postpone Diet discussions on the topic until after its election. Regional relations continue to shape the US-Japan alliance agenda with Chinese maritime activity in the East China Sea and South China Sea and ongoing North Korean provocations garnering the most attention. The summer months that followed were full of politics, with an Upper House election in Japan in July and the Republican and Democratic Party conventions in the US kicking off the general election campaign for president. The Republican nominee, Donald Trump, continued to take aim at trade deals and US alliances, but the Democratic Party had its “anti-trade” moment when its convention took aim at the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), the trade pact concluded by 12 Pacific nations. The Obama administration continued to work toward a Congressional vote in the lame duck session at the end of the year. With less political contention but growing skepticism over Washington’s ability to ratify the agreement, the Abe Cabinet decided that it would postpone Diet discussions until after its election. Regional relations continue to shape the US-Japan alliance agenda. In July, the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea Tribunal announced its arbitration ruling in a case brought by the Philippines on Chinese behavior in the South China Sea. Beijing was quick to condemn the ruling, but its neighbors in Asia largely welcomed it. In August, Chinese fishing vessels inundated the waters near the Senkaku Islands, prompting Japan’s Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Sugiyama Shinsuke to call in Chinese Ambassador Cheng Yonghua for a harsh protest. A diplomatic opening came when Foreign Minister Wang Yi traveled to Tokyo on Aug. 24 for a trilateral meeting with the foreign ministers of Japan and the ROK, the first trilateral meeting held in Japan in 11 years. North Korea heralded this Japan-ROK-PRC meeting by testing a ballistic missile launch from a submarine. Pyongyang yet again interrupted regional diplomacy when it launched three missiles into the Sea of Japan during the G20 meeting hosted by Beijing, prompting renewed UN condemnation of North Korea and a hasty set of meetings between the leaders of Japan, South Korea, and the US. A full agenda of Asian multilateral meetings ended the summer, offering plenty of opportunity for diplomacy. For this summer, at least, there seems little reason to believe that diplomacy alone can bridge the growing differences over how to resolve the region’s growing security tensions.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Regional Cooperation, Memory, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

34529. Friction and Cooperation Advance Simultaneously

Author:: Bonnie S. Glaser and Alexandra Viers
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Senior US and Chinese officials publicly emphasized positive developments in the bilateral relationship at the eighth US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, while privately raising concerns. The second US-China Cybercrime and Related Issues High-Level Joint Dialogue convened a week later. The South China Sea persisted as a major area of tension as an UNCLOS Tribunal ruled in favor of the Philippines in its case against China. National Security Adviser Susan Rice traveled to Beijing in late July to prepare for the US participation in the G20 Summit in Hangzhou and what is likely to be the last meeting between Xi Jinping and President Obama. Bilateral military ties maintained an active pace with a visit by the US chief of naval operations to China in July, a port visit by a US guided-missile destroyer to Qingdao in August, and Chinese participation in the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) military exercises in Hawaii.
Topic:: Development, Diplomacy, Economics, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

34530. Tests, Distress, Defection, Election

Author:: Stephen Noerper
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The United States and South Korea entered the summer months with growing concern over North Korean missile capabilities. The DPRK Workers’ Party Congress in May signaled solidarity in Kim Jong Un’s reign, replacing the National Defense Commission with a new State Affairs Commission, and appointing Ri Yong Ho as foreign minister. Mid-summer, the US sanctioned Kim Jong Un and 10 other individuals and entities for human rights violations, and the US and ROK agreed to deploy the THAAD system against North Korea. Angered, the DPRK severed the New York channel. The US and South Korea joined together in military exercise Ulchi Freedom Guardian. Pyongyang responded by threatening to turn Seoul and Washington into a “heap of ashes through a Korean-style preemptive nuclear strike.” Finally, South Koreans expressed growing concern over the course of the US presidential campaign.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, Alliance, Conflict, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

34531. Augmented Presence

Author:: Sheldon Simon
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The Obama administration has achieved only a portion of its Asian rebalance strategy in Southeast Asia. Washington is repositioning elements of the US Navy to the Pacific, engaging in “freedom of navigation patrols,” and providing assistance to Vietnam and the Philippines to monitor and defend their maritime territories. US leaders are regularly attending ASEAN-based meetings to demonstrate US commitment to Asia. President Obama regularly promotes the Tran-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Despite these advances, US presidential electoral politics are presenting new obstacles. Meanwhile, the US has urged caution with respect to the UNCLOS Arbitral Tribunal’s decision on the South China Sea. Human rights concerns continue to trouble US relations with Hanoi as well as Bangkok, Nay Pyi Taw, Vientiane, and Phnom Penh.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Human Rights, International Cooperation, and International Trade and Finance
Political Geography:: Asia, North America, and United States of America

34532. Countering Adverse Tribunal Ruling

Author:: Robert G. Sutter and Chin-Hao Huang
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Tensions over South China Sea territorial disputes dominated relations throughout the summer months of 2016. Fearing that the UNCLOS Arbitral Tribunal case would go against China, Beijing took remedial steps in the lead-up to the July 12 ruling to show resolve to domestic Chinese constituencies and to counter international pressures. With the Tribunal’s award even more negative for China than most anticipated, Beijing’s attacks on the arbitral panel and warnings to neighbors and the US intensified. They were accompanied by shows of force in the South China Sea. Given the restraint of others, after a few weeks registering intense indignation, Chinese officials and commentary also moderated their rhetoric. Whether the Chinese shift to moderation was tactical or strategic remains to be seen. The Chinese onslaught was met with restraint and moderation in the region and on the part of other concerned powers. In contrast to the high tempo of large-scale US and US led-naval exercises and other military maneuvers in the South China Sea prior to the decision, there were no military actions signaling pressure on China in the weeks following the decision. Japan and Australia joined the US in restricting reactions mainly to official statements approving of the tribunal’s decision. The Philippines, the initiator of the case, inaugurated a new government on June 30 that was much more interested in seeking common ground with China. Given the restraint of others, after a few weeks registering intense indignation, Chinese officials and commentary also moderated their rhetoric. Whether the Chinese shift to moderation was tactical or strategic remains to be seen. Construction of hangers that could be used by military as well as civilian aircraft continued on the newly created land features now hosting modern aircraft landing strips on Chinese-controlled rocks and reefs in the Spratly Islands. Other infrastructure for Chinese occupation continued to be built. Chinese leaders from President Xi Jinping on down strongly reaffirmed China’s determination to defend its territorial claims, with China’s most senior foreign policy spokesperson, State Councilor Yang Jiechi telling Chinese media on July 14 that China “cannot lose one centimeter of inheritance left by ancestors.”
Topic:: Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Hegemony, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

34533. Relations Better than Expected

Author:: David G. Brown and Kevin Scott
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen was inaugurated as president on May 20. In her inaugural address, she did not accept “one China” but did reach out further toward Beijing. Beijing gave her address an “incomplete” grade and has continued to press her to accept the 1992 Consensus. Despite this fundamental divide and deep mutual mistrust, the two sides have been able to handle some issues in a pragmatic manner. Although the formal communications channels have been suspended by Beijing, contacts at other levels continue under the network of cross-strait agreements. Many issues will continue to complicate the management of relations. However, Tsai remains committed to maintaining stable relations and Xi Jinping, preoccupied with other challenges, prefers to avoid a confrontation with Taiwan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Military Strategy, Governance, Leadership, and Conflict
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

34534. A Toxic Nuclear Tocsin

Author:: Aidan Foster-Career
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The middle four months of 2016 were among the bleakest for inter-Korean relations in the 15 years this writer has been covering that often rebarbative relationship for Comparative Connections. There have been numerous fiery threats from Pyongyang, extreme even by their own standards. An accelerated flurry of ballistic missile launches, followed by North Korea’s second nuclear test this year, raised fears that Kim Jong Un was speeding up development of his strike capacity. As of now the Koreas are not talking to each other, only at each other. North Korea did make a few new proposals for dialogue, though it can hardly have expected them to be taken seriously, given the tone and content of most of its other statements and actions. For South Korea, as for all North Korea’s interlocutors, the Kim Jong Un factor adds an extra layer of anxiety to the already complex and concerning challenges posed by the DPRK. Given the latest Kim’s youth, he could be around for decades, despite wishful thinking to the contrary. Or perhaps that is the wrong metaphor. The past quarter brought numerous fiery threats from Pyongyang, extreme even by their own standards, to nuke or otherwise blitz South Korea’s President Park Geun-hye as well as the Blue House (Cheongwadae); not to mention the US and points further afield, from Guam to Manhattan. An accelerated flurry of ballistic missile launches over the past six months, followed on Sept. 9 by North Korea’s second nuclear test this year, raised fears that Kim Jong Un was speeding up development of his strike capacity, such that one day such wild braggadocio might be a real menace, and not just empty bluster. Nonetheless, as German sociologist Georg Simmel noted a century ago, conflict is a form of sociation. As of now the Koreas are not talking to each other, only at each other – or shouting, in the North’s case. Yet this too needs reporting, and parsing. In fact North Korea did make a few new proposals for dialogue during the past four months; though it can hardly have expected them to be taken seriously, when the tone and content of most of its other statements – not to mention its actions on the WMD front – contradicted them so violently. In this and other respects Kim Jong Un remains harder to fathom, in terms of his tactical or strategic goals, than were his father Kim Jong Il and grandfather Kim Il Sung before him. For South Korea, as for all North Korea’s interlocutors (actual or potential), the Kim Jong Un factor adds an extra layer of anxiety to the already complex and concerning challenges posed by the DPRK. Given the latest Kim’s youth – now confirmed by his aunt as 32: even younger than Kim Il Sung was when the USSR installed him in Pyongyang in 1945 – he could in principle be around for decades, despite wishful thinking to the contrary (discussed below).
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

34535. Relations in “Kim Jong Un’s Era”

Author:: Scott Snyder and See-Won Byun
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Vice Chairman of the Workers’ Party of Korea (WPK) Central Committee Ri Su Yong visited Beijing at the end of May to deliver a message of friendship from Kim Jong Un and to report on the results of the May 6-9 WPK Congress, which reportedly marked the “official start to Kim Jong-un’s era.” Ri’s visit drew attention to Pyongyang’s nuclear policy as a continued source of friction in relations with Beijing. China-ROK tensions rose with the announcement of a US-ROK agreement to deploy the THAAD missile defense system in South Korea and South Korean protests against illegal Chinese fishing. Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) remain another point of China-ROK tension. Although China and South Korea seek to advance trade within various frameworks, such efforts only highlight a widening gap between the economic and political aspects of their relationship. Current security priorities require effective approaches to both immediate differences over THAAD and EEZs and longer-term preferences over how to effectively promote lasting stability on the Korean Peninsula.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Leadership, Conflict, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: China, Asia, and North Korea

34536. No Lack of Dialogue, Results – TBD

Author:: James J Przystup
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: There was no lack of high-level bilateral dialogue over the summer months with the foreign ministers meeting three times between late April and the end of August. There were several other exchanges in between including a meeting between Prime Minister Abe and Premier Li in July at the Asia-Europe Meeting in Ulaanbaatar. Despite the dialogue, strong differences continued to mark the relationship, in particular on issues related to the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Tensions heightened in June when a PLA Navy ship entered Japan’s territorial waters off Kagoshima and again in August when Chinese fishing boats and Coast Guard ships swarmed into the Senkakus, entering Japan’s contiguous zone and territorial waters despite repeated high-level protests.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Conflict, and Territory
Political Geography:: Japan, China, and Asia

34537. When No News Is Good News

Author:: David C. Kang and Jiun Bang
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The summer months were less tumultuous than usual for Seoul and Tokyo. Aside from the main political issue surrounding the implementation of the “comfort women” deal that was struck back in December 2015, there were many visible instances of cooperation across a range of sectors. To some extent, Seoul was preoccupied with the fallout from its decision to host the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system while Japan was focused on its House of Councillors election in July. It was business as usual with North Korea for Japan, with efforts to denounce Pyongyang’s ballistic missile tests and the stalemate over the investigation into the abduction of Japanese citizens since the North’s decision to suspend the probe in February 2016.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Missile Defense
Political Geography:: Japan, Asia, and North Korea

34538. Politics of “Reluctant Allies”

Author:: Yu Bin
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: The China-Russia relationship was both extraordinary and ordinary. On one hand, both sides were visibly, albeit reluctantly, moving toward more security-strategic coordination to offset growing pressure from the US and its allies. On the other hand, they continued to interact with a mix of cooperation, competition, and compromise for interests and influence in a range of areas including trade, investment, and regional development. Neither trend was definitive, given the complex dynamics between the two, as well as their respective relations with others, which are beyond the control of Moscow or Beijing. The asymmetry between “high” and “low” politics in their bilateral ties may be normal, if not necessarily desirable. Nevertheless, the scope, speed, and sustainability of the emerging Sino-Russian strategic alignment deserve careful scrutiny.
Topic:: Security, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, Alliance, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Russia, China, Europe, and Asia

34539. Turnbull, TPP, and Trump

Author:: Graeme Dobell
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: While Malcolm Turnbull’s coalition government was narrowly returned to office in Australia’s 2016 election, Australia’s thinking about Asia’s future hinges on another election. Concern about the US presidential race has joined worries about Asia’s “rules-based order” and growing competition between the US and China. Not least of Australia’s fears is what US politics will do to the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal. Meanwhile, there were a few “surprises” between Australia, the US, and Japan that shaped relations over the summer months and will likely continue to influence them in the coming year.
Topic:: International Cooperation, International Trade and Finance, Governance, and Leadership
Political Geography:: China, Asia, Australia, North America, and United States of America

34540. Progress on Defense while Economic Issues Lag

Author:: Satu Limaye
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Comparative Connections
Institution:: Pacific Forum
Abstract:: Since relations were reset following President Obama’s visit to India in January 2015, there have been three visits to the US by Prime Minister Modi. The US and India have also conducted two iterations of the Strategic and Commercial Dialogue (S&CD), exchanged multiple Cabinet-level visits, and announced new initiatives to broaden and deepen dialogue and produce outcomes. Over the past year and a half, the absence of drama has allowed for notable progress in the area of defense relations, but just as notably little progress on key trade and investment issues even as bilateral trade and investment grows. After three decades and three US presidents with strong commitments to the bilateral relationship, it remains to be seen whether a new US president will reciprocate Modi’s expressed and demonstrated interest in strong US-India relations. Since then, there have been three further visits to the US by Prime Minister Modi – in September 2015 for meetings at the United Nations as well as outreach to the Indian-American community and US business community, in April 2016 to attend the Nuclear Security Summit, and in June 2016 for a final summit with President Obama and a speech to a joint session of Congress. The US and India have also conducted two iterations of the newly-launched Strategic and Commercial Dialogue (S&CD) modeled on the US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue, exchanged multiple Cabinet-level and senior officials visits, and announced new initiatives (e.g., upgraded UN and Multilateral Dialogue, Maritime Security Dialogue, consultations on Africa) to broaden and deepen dialogue and produce outcomes. During the period under review (March 2015 to September 2016), there have been no dramatic events similar to PM Modi being “unbanned” from visiting the US. The absence of drama has allowed for notable progress in the area of defense relations, but just as notably little progress on key trade and investment issues even as bilateral trade and investment grows. After three decades and three US presidents with strong personal and policy commitments to the bilateral relationship, it remains to be seen whether a new US president will reciprocate Prime Minister Modi’s expressed and demonstrated interest in strong US-India relations. Unlike divergences between the current two US presidential candidates on a host of foreign policy issues and in particular relations with the Asia-Pacific, statements and indications by the Clinton and Trump campaigns suggest a strong commitment to continued improvements in US-India relations. Both party platforms specifically address the importance of India, though it is noteworthy that the Republican platform raises issues about India’s commercial openness and the country’s treatment of religious minorities.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and International Cooperation
Political Geography:: India, Asia, North America, and United States of America

34541. Public Debt in an Unequal World

Author:: Sandy Brian Hager
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: Public debt levels have risen across the advanced capitalist world over the past four decades. Who exactly is purchasing these ever-growing piles of public debt? How do rising levels of public indebtedness relate to growing wealth and inequality? This paper presents some of my own findings, which indicate a rapid concentration in ownership of the US public debt since the early 1980s. Focusing on the Eurozone, the paper then goes on to discuss the difficulties in extending this type of research to other countries. The absence of reliable data on ownership of the public debt reinforces the need for a global registry that tracks the distribution of financial wealth.
Topic:: Debt, Capitalism, Inequality, Austerity, Public Debt, and Ownership
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34542. Breaking the Link Between Housing Cycles, Banking Crises, and Recession

Author:: Avinash Persaud
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: The housing market lies at the center of the biggest banking crises across the world. The recessions that follow these banking crises are generally deeper and longer than others. The collapse of housing prices amid rising unemployment is a major source of inequality. This working paper explains how the nexus between housing, banking, and the economy can be broken. It shows that two modest regulatory changes would result in life insurers and pension funds providing mortgage finance, which would better insulate the economy and homeowners from the housing cycle than financing from banks or markets can.
Topic:: Global Recession, Inequality, Economy, Housing, and Banking
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34543. The Explosive Growth of the ABCP Market Between 2004 and 2007: A 'Search for Yield' Story

Author:: Photis Lysandrou and Mimoza Shabani
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: City Political Economy Research Centre (CITYPERC), University of London
Abstract:: The years immediately preceding the financial crisis of 2007 witnessed an explosive growth in the supplies both of the long term securities issued by the shadow banking entities, the ABSs and CDOs, and of the short term securities issued by these entities, notably ABCP. While it is widely accepted that the search for yield was the major driving force behind ABS and CDO growth, the same is not true of the ABCP market where other factors such as regulatory arbitrage on the part of banks or the safety and liquidity concerns of institutional investors are seen as having been the more important growth driving force. This paper argues that the search for yield did play a crucial role in ABCP growth between 2004 and 2007. To back up this argument, the paper points to four close correlations that were peculiar to this particular three year span: (i) that between ABCP growth and the federal funds rate and the rate on ABCP; (ii) that between ABCP growth and the growth of US MMMF asset holdings; (iii) that between ABCP growth and the changes in the geographical and functional breakdown of the institutions supplying ABCP; (iv) and, finally, that between ABCP growth and the changes in the programme breakdown of the ABCP market.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Global Financial Crisis, Investment, Banking, and Asset Backed Commercial Paper
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34544. Agricultura familiar campesina en el Paraguay: Notas preliminares para su caracterización y propuestas de desarrollo rural

Author:: Quintín Riquelme
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Análisis y Difusión de la Economía Paraguaya (CADEP)
Abstract:: Con el propósito de encarar estudios más profundos sobre la Agricultura Familiar Campesina (AFC) en el Paraguay, sus posibilidades de supervivencia, y las políticas orientadas a este tipo de agricultura, el CADEP ha decidido iniciar la discusión de esta temática con la presentación de unas notas preliminares. Para el efecto se ha invitado al sociólogo Quintín Riquelme a reflexionar sobre las características de la AFC en el Paraguay, los desafíos actuales y futuros de esta forma de producción y los lineamientos de políticas públicas más adecuados para apoyar a este segmento importante de la población rural en nuestro país. A partir de la visión de un experto y conocedor del tema en Paraguay, tanto en sus aspectos sociales y económicos, como Quintín Riquelme, el CADEP se compromete a realizar más investigaciones que vayan ampliando y profundizando el tema y explorando propuestas adecuadas para el sostenimiento de la AFC.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Economy, Rural, Sustainability, Farming, and Farmers
Political Geography:: South America and Paraguay

34545. Finanzas Municipales: Los casos de Caacupé y Emboscada

Author:: Raúl Monte Domecq
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centro de Análisis y Difusión de la Economía Paraguaya (CADEP)
Abstract:: El Observatorio Fiscal y Presupuestario (OFIP) del CADEP presenta un beve estudio sobre la situación de las finanzas de gobiernos locales y sus grados de dependencia de las transferencias recibidas por la administración central de gobierno. En particular se aborda la situación en el Departamento de la Cordillera tomando como estudios de caso a los municipios de Caacupé y Emboscada. En particular, Este estudio propone un análisis de las transferencias financieras del gobierno central a los gobiernos subnacionales, tales como ROYALTIES, FONACIDE y otros conceptos, su evolución en los últimos trece años y su impacto en las finanzas municipales.
Topic:: Government, Budget, Fiscal Policy, Case Study, and Municipalities
Political Geography:: South America and Paraguay

34546. Agricultura Familiar: ODM y Gasto Público

Author:: Gerardo Benítez
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centro de Análisis y Difusión de la Economía Paraguaya (CADEP)
Abstract:: La Agricultura Familiar en el Paraguay ya no cumple con su objetivo de satisfacer la demanda alimentaria del mercado interno. El Paraguay no ha alcanzado las metas propuestas dentro de los Objetivos del Milenio (ODM) para reducir la desnutrición crónica y la desnutrición de embarazadas. Los gastos públicos en apoyo de la Agricultura Familiar se han venido reduciendo en forma sostenida desde el 2012. Estas son tres de las conclusiones del trabajo de Gerardo Benítez sobre la situación de la Agricultura Familiar en el Paraguay y su relación con la seguridad alimentaria. En esta monografía se aborda primeramente la capacidad de la Agricultura Familiar Campesina en la generación de alimentos para la subsistencia y para la renta. En segundo lugar, se presentan los resultados de los ODM en materia de desnutrición para el Paraguay y su vinculación con la Agricultura Familiar. Finalmente se examinan los diversos programas públicos de apoyo a la Agricultura Familiar y la evolución de este apoyo en términos de gastos con relación al PIB y con los gastos totales de la administración pública.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Food Security, Farming, and Public Spending
Political Geography:: South America and Paraguay

34547. Paraguay: Educación y Objetivos del Milenio Principales resultados

Author:: Gerardo Benítez
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centro de Análisis y Difusión de la Economía Paraguaya (CADEP)
Abstract:: El documento de trabajo que se presenta aquí , se inscribe dentro de la Serie de Profesionales Jóvenes del CADEP. Este trabajo ha sido el resultado de una instancia de capacitación en investigación del CADEP impartida a asistentes de investigación y profesionales jóvenes de la institución. La monografía consiste en evaluar los Objetivos del Milenio (ODM) sobre los resultados alcanzados por Paraguay en materia de universalización de la educación primaria. Este es uno de los 8 ODM fijados por las Naciones Unidas con metas a alcanzar para el 2015. El trabajo es, primeramente, una descripción cuantitativa de la inversión social realizada por el Estado paraguayo en aquellos programas de educación que han apuntado a alcanzar la meta mencionada. En segundo lugar, también se hace una descripción cuantitativa de los resultados alcanzados en cada uno de los indicadores establecidos para medir el nivel de cumplimiento de la universalización de la educación primaria en el país.
Topic:: Development, Education, and Social Investment
Political Geography:: South America and Paraguay

34548. Monitoreo fiscal: Evolución de las cuentas públicas del 2003 al 2015

Author:: Julio Ramírez and Gerardo Benítez
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centro de Análisis y Difusión de la Economía Paraguaya (CADEP)
Abstract:: La evolución de las cuentas públicas en el Paraguay en los últimos 12 años es objeto del último informe de Monitoreo Fiscal, una publicación del Observatorio Fiscal y Presupuestario (OFIP).En el mismo se analiza la estructura de los ingresos del Estado y su comportamiento de acuerdo a los diferentes tipos de tributos e ingresos no tributarios. También se aborda el tema de los gastos públicos, con énfasis en los gastos sociales. Finalmente se describen los resultados fiscales en todo el período considerado.
Topic:: Budget, Fiscal Policy, Public Spending, and Monitoring
Political Geography:: South America and Paraguay

34549. Monitoring and Assessing the Integrity and Internal Governance in the Ministry of Kosovo Security Force and the Kosovo Police

Author:: Skender Perteshi and Plator Avdiu
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: Results of the Kosovo Security Barometer for five consecutive years have listed the Kosovo Police and the Kosovo Security Force as the most trusted institutions by Kosovar citizens. However, there is still much to be done in terms of these institutions achieving excellence. Despite the fact that the legal framework ensuring the integrity of security institutions is solid and continues to improve, findings indicate that further administrative capacity and mechanisms to ensure the sound implementation of this framework and the sound functioning of institutional integrity. Being the latter sector still below the desired standard and therefore affecting the performance of these institutions, risking a decline in citizens’ trust for the Kosovo Police and the Ministry of Kosovo Security Force, which is currently at its peak.
Topic:: Security, Governance, Institutions, and Police
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

34550. The Citizens' Views Against Violent Extremism and Radicalization in Kosovo

Author:: Vesë Kelmendi
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: This special edition of bKS is aimed at a wide range of stakeholders interested to follow citizens’ perceptions of violent extremism and radicalization in Kosovo. Specifically, it addresses an audience that is interested to follow the trends of public opinion in Kosovo with special emphasis on Kosova citizens’ trust in and contact with religious institutions in Kosovo; threats and risks arising from the terrorist formations such as ISIS and al-Nusra; perception of the rehabilitation of returnees from Syria and Iraq as well as perceptions of the Kosovar government’s strategy to deal with this phenomenon. In general, bKS is aimed at the state level policy makers, international actors in Kosova, as well as local organizations, religious communities, civil society, academia and media.
Topic:: Public Opinion, Violent Extremism, Radicalization, and Rehabilitation
Political Geography:: Iraq, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Syria

34551. Kosovo Security Force is an Army - Legal Arguments

Author:: Robert Muharremi
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: This legal opinion will argue that under the Constitution of the Republic of Kosovo, KSF is already a military force and constitutional amendments are not required to eliminate current restrictions which prevent it from becoming fully-fledged military force. All current restrictions may be eliminated by amending the relevant legislation within existing provisions of the Constitution. Amendment of the Constitution would require the approval of two thirds (2/3) of all members of the Parliament, including two thirds (2/3) of all members of the Parliament holding reserved or guaranteed seats for representatives of communities that are not in the majority in the Republic of Kosovo. On the other hand, as the legislation on KSF does not constitute legislation of vital interest (Article 81 of the Constitution), amendments of the legislation on KSF could be adopted by the Parliament only by a majority vote of MPs present and voting (Article 80.1 of the Constitution).
Topic:: Security, Armed Forces, and Constitution
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

34552. "The Gordian Knot: Kosovo's obstacles towards membership into international security organisations"

Author:: Leonard Aliu and Plator Avdiu
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The efforts of the Kosovo institutions in view of the country’s membership into regional and international security organisations, with particular emphasis on the International Criminal Police Organisation - INTERPOL has brought into surface the fact that they have not been successful so far. Almost since the declaration of independence (17 February 2008) the commitment of the Kosovo institutions remained more in the limits of political statements rather than concrete actions to join regional and international security organisations. Kosovo’s relevant institutions did not demonstrate the political determination to establish official relations and direct contact with INTERPOL, whilst unmik mission remains as a bridge.
Topic:: Regional Cooperation, International Security, Institutions, and Interpol
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

34553. State of play of Kosovo’s international legal cooperation

Author:: Bardha Maxhuni
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: In the globalizing world that we are living, international legal cooperation in criminal matters is an inevitable and necessary instrument in order to prevent and combat transnational crime, which poses serious problems for national security and justice system. Crime affects each one of us, and fighting it must be a shared goal for all countries despite their political differences and relations between each other. In the current circumstances, the process of extradition, mutual legal assistance, transfer of criminal proceedings, execution of foreign sentences, recognition of foreign criminal judgments, confiscation of the proceeds from crime, collection and exchange of information, between intelligence and law enforcement services, is an imminent need in the fight against criminality.
Topic:: Crime, International Cooperation, National Security, and Law
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

34554. No Way Out? Assesment of Police Cooperation between Kosovo and Serbia

Author:: Sofije Kryeziu
Publication Date:: 11-2016
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: Countries aspiring for membership into the European Union (EU) are required to foster good neighbourly relations. Sound inter-state relations contribute towards the enhancement of regional security and cooperation. In the context of the Western Balkans, police cooperation is considered one of the most important aspects as it serves the purpose of peace and stability. Hence, membership into the EU is conditioned, among other factors, with the enhancement of multilateral and bilateral security cooperation. The progress is measured through different mechanisms set up by the EU and other international organisations. While there has been an advancement in bilateral cooperation and multilateral cooperation through regional initiatives in general, a large gap remains due to the limited security cooperation between Kosovo and Serbia. This state of play is driven by the political factors over Serbia’s refusal to recognise Kosovo, and the activities it undertakes to thwart its representation in the international system. This is despite contrary agreements and overshadows the potential of security cooperation. Furthermore, the ongoing refusal to formally recognise Kosovo as a sovereign state should not mark an obstacle to police cooperation, as this is for the benefit of both countries and people.
Topic:: Bilateral Relations, European Union, Police, and Cooperation
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

34555. Kosovo Security Barometer - Sixth Edition

Author:: Mentor Vrajolli
Publication Date:: 12-2016
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS)
Abstract:: The Kosovo Security Barometer (KSB) is a specific programme of Kosovar Centre for Security Studies (KCSS) designed to serve as an annual publication. The primary focus of the KSB is to measure the public opinion perceptions towards security and justice institutions. It also measures the public perception on the internal and external security threats to Kosovo. The KSB marks one of the largest and rather first initiatives designed, implemented, and communicated by a local think tank in Kosovo. KCSS has no political constraints in communicating the findings and messages. Finally, the KSB is unique for its methodological approach, such as the unique tailoring of the quantitative and qualitative methods aiming to offer realistic results on public perceptions towards security-related issues.
Topic:: Security, Public Opinion, and Survey
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Kosovo

34556. The role of ex-rebel parties in building peace

Author:: Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Political parties can play an important part in shaping the direction of post-conflict peacebuilding, and parties that emerge from rebel movements have a particularly central role to play in this regard. While such groups are often uniquely placed to articulate the grievances that underlie the conflict and channel these into political processes, they are also able to remobilise for violence and undermine progress on peace. This report discusses existing knowledge about the ways in which rebel groups transform into political parties and the factors that shape their contribution to peacebuilding. It then examines three cases of political parties that have emerged from rebel groups – the FMLN of El Salvador, UCPN (Maoist) of Nepal and SPLM of South Sudan. In each case it explores how the internal dynamics of the group and its relationship to society, the nature of the peace settlement, and the broader local and international context determine the group’s engagement with democracy and peace processes. Finally, the report examines how international actors can support rebel-to-party transition and the integration of these parties into peace processes and political systems in ways that promote a sustainable and inclusive peace.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Peacekeeping, Political Parties, and Sustainability
Political Geography:: Africa, Asia, Nepal, Latin America, El Salvador, and South Sudan

34557. Political parties and peacebuilding

Author:: Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: International peacebuilding actors have so far been wary of engagement with political parties. However, there is growing recognition of the importance of working with local political systems, institutions and parties in the promotion of peace. It is therefore important that international actors strengthen their understanding of political parties in conflict-affected contexts and how such parties relate to conflict and peacebuilding, as well as examine how best to deepen engagement with them. This report examines the nature of political parties in conflict-affected contexts and the challenges such parties face in becoming effective actors for peace. It analyses three cases – Sri Lanka, Nepal and Myanmar – where parties have played very different roles in relation to both the grievances and struggles that have fuelled conflict, and efforts to build and sustain peace. It then discusses how lessons from these cases can inform the work of international peacebuilding actors. Finally, the report examines the track record of the international community in working with political parties in conflict-affected contexts. It argues that international actors must move beyond “blueprint” approaches to party support and instead develop more comprehensive and context-relevant responses to the specific challenges that such parties face. There is growing awareness among international peacebuilding and statebuilding actors of the importance of engaging more effectively with political processes and structures in conflict-affected and post-conflict states. Although political parties are frequently at the centre of such processes and structures, international actors have generally been wary of working with them beyond limited capacity-building activities, seeing this as a sensitive and high-risk area. Political parties can help build peace. However, they can also fuel antagonism, grievance and conflict. If international peacebuilding and statebuilding actors are serious about working more effectively with local politics, it is essential that they strengthen their understanding of political parties and the roles they play in relation to conflict and peacebuilding, as well as rethink how best to engage with them.
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Local, State Building, and Political Parties
Political Geography:: Asia, Sri Lanka, Nepal, and Myanmar

34558. Women in armed groups and fighting forces: lessons learned from gender-sensitive DDR programmes

Author:: Elisa Tarnaala
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Despite their involvement in strategic, material and logistical support and combat, women’s roles as "soldiers" and "victims" are narrowly defined by post-conflict programmes. Most disarmament, demobilisation and reintegration (DDR) programmes are limited in the ways in which issues specific to female combatants are addressed. Gender-sensitive DDR programming must be linked into the entire peace process, from the peace negotiations through peacekeeping and subsequent peacebuilding activities. This process should include issues such as identifying women and setting the appropriate criteria for their entering DDR processes; understanding identity issues and obstacles facing women’s post-conflict political participation; targeting women as larger units with their children and partners rather than merely as individuals; addressing female health and psychosocial needs; and sensitisation to the particular issues around the gender dimensions of violence and community acceptance. This report highlights lessons learned from gender and DDR processes and notes that with regard to territorial implementation, national DDR commissions should be encouraged to work closely with government entities in charge of gender and women’s affairs, and – especially where governments are responsible for all or part of the DDR process – with women’s peacebuilding networks that can serve as bridges in the transition to civilian life, and facilitate social, political and economic reintegration
Topic:: Gender Issues, Peacekeeping, Women, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34559. Women political leaders and peacebuilding

Author:: Clare Castillejo
Publication Date:: 05-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Over the past 15 years there has been growing recognition of the gender-differentiated impact of conflict, the opportunities to promote women’s rights that post-conflict peacebuilding processes provide and – crucially – the value that women bring to peacebuilding. Yet in many conflict-affected settings women’s participation and leadership in shaping the peacebuilding agenda remain strongly resisted by male elites and are not prioritised by international actors. This report explores the opportunities for achieving women’s meaningful participation and influence in peacebuilding, and the challenges faced by such an agenda. Given the crucially important role that political parties can play in shaping the direction of peacebuilding and post-conflict politics, the report focuses particularly on the ability of women to exercise political voice and leadership through parties and the party system. Finally, it examines why international actors have failed to live up to their commitments on women’s inclusion in peacebuilding, and identifies opportunities and strategies to strengthen international support for women’s participation and influence in the politics of peace.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Peacekeeping, Women, Feminism, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34560. Engaged societies, responsive states: The Social Contract in situations of conflict and fragility

Author:: Marco Mezzera
Publication Date:: 04-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: This concept note presents an analysis of the use of a “social contract” as a way of framing UNDP’s governance and peacebuilding practices in fragile and conflict-affected contexts. It forms part of the follow-up to the UNDP report “Governance for Peace: Securing the Social Contract” (UNDP, 2012) both to contribute further to UN policy discussions and to help chart ways forward. The social contract is the process by which everyone in a political community, either explicitly or tacitly, consents to state authority, thereby limiting some of her or his freedoms, in exchange for the state’s protection of their universal human rights and security and for the adequate provision of public goods and services. Divided into five sections, this note provides both a conceptual understanding of the social contract, as well as policy implications for UNDP projects moving forward. The note also examines case studies of post-conflict regions where the social contract has been rebuilt and proposes areas for further study in order to help fully capitalize on the potential that the social contract offers. Finally, the two annexes provide a framework for a tool to help practitioners analyze the structure and dynamics of the social contract in a fragile setting.
Topic:: Governance, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Social Contract
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34561. Innovations in the Colombian peace process

Author:: Kristian Herbolzheimer
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The peace agreement is a major milestone in the process of settling one of the world’s most protracted and violent conflicts. At a time of unprecedented humanitarian crisis, Colombia is becoming a global reference for identifying political solutions to apparently intractable conflicts. In their third major attempt in five decades to reach a negotiated solution to the conflict, the parties to the conflict have taken stock of both their own past failures and lessons learned from other peace processes. In doing so they have developed innovative frameworks and approaches, e.g. a clear procedural distinction between peace negotiations and the peace process; positioning the rights of the victims at the centre of the talks; addressing the structural problem of rural development; creating a Gender Subcommission; and planning for implementation long before the agreement is signed. This report describes all these innovations and other developments which have led up to peace agreement. Many of these innovations could have relevance to peace processes elsewhere.
Topic:: Diplomacy, United Nations, Peace, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

34562. The mapping of peace constituency actors in the Philippines

Author:: Joeven Reyes
Publication Date:: 07-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The Philippines has a long history of armed conflicts caused by various factors, including poverty, lack of social justice, continuing HR violations and impunity, discrimination, and non-recognition of the right to self-determination. In spite of this long-standing situation of conflict, only a few CSOs focus directly on supporting peace and peace processes. This can be attributed to the fact that Filipinos’ major concerns, especially in rural areas, are focused more on day-to-day survival and family- and community-related issues than larger national issues. They cannot immediately associate or see the link between their present issues and concerns and the peace process. In addition, there is also a lack of information and knowledge about the peace processes taking place in the country. The intention of this mapping is to identify possible key leaders and organisations in an attempt to ascertain how they perceive the ongoing peace negotiation between the GPH and NDFP, and to identify key issues in the conflict-affected areas that can influence the GPH-NDFP peace process. The research also seeks to ascertain what these leaders/organisations recommend should be done to sustain the peace negotiation and maintain their own interest in and willingness to commit to reviving, revitalising and sustaining a national peace movement that is supportive of the GPH-NDFP peace process.
Topic:: Human Rights, Self Determination, Social Justice, and Peace
Political Geography:: Asia and Philippines

34563. The humanitarian impact of the new dynamics of the armed conflict and violence in various regions of Colombia

Author:: Francisco Rey Marcos and Josephine Dubois
Publication Date:: 08-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The peace agreement that is expected to be reached between the Colombian government and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia – People’s Army (FARC-EP) will end more than 50 years of armed conflict. It will also highlight new opportunities for the country, and also new violence dynamics that are especially present in remote regions of the country and some urban areas. The role of other armed groups besides the FARC-EP, especially post-demobilisation armed groups, is one of the greatest risks facing the consolidation of a peace process. While the peace talks in Havana were still ongoing, these actors reconfigured their operations and have been responsible for serious humanitarian impacts on some communities. Despite seeing improvements in many indicators (e.g. the homicide rate, acts of war, etc.), other more surreptitious activities such as threats, individual displacement, extortion and social control have increased, indicating that the humanitarian situation remains alarming. This should be a priority in post-agreement peace planning, since this type of violence has a more subtle humanitarian impact and there is the danger that it could become invisible. This report analyses these conflict dynamics, their possible evolution during the post-agreement stage, and their humanitarian and social consequences. It also highlights the need to improve monitoring systems and improve protection for affected communities.
Topic:: Violence, Peace, Humanitarian Crisis, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

34564. Agrarian reform and the difficult road to peace in the Philippine countryside

Author:: Danilo Carranza
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: Agrarian reform and conflict in the rural areas of the Philippines are closely intertwined. The weak government implementation of the Comprehensive Agrarian Reform Programme, inherent loopholes in the law, strong landowner resistance, weak farmers’ organisations, and the continuing espousal by the New People’s Army of its own agrarian revolution combine to make the government’s agrarian reform programme only partially successful in breaking up land monopolies. This is why poverty is still pronounced in many rural areas. The rise of an agrarian reform movement has significantly contributed to the partial success of the government’s agrarian reform programme. But the government has not been able to tap the full potential of this movement to push for faster and more meaningful agrarian reform. The agrarian reform dynamics between pro- and anti-agrarian reform actors create social tensions that often lead to violence, of which land-rights claimants are often the victims. This is exacerbated and in many ways encouraged by the government’s failure to fulfil its obligation to protect the basic human rights of land-rights claimants. This report outlines the pace and direction of agrarian reform in the Philippines and its role in fighting poverty and promoting peace in rural areas. It emphasises the importance of reform-oriented peasant movements and more effective government implementation to the success of agrarian reform. The report also asserts the need for the government and the armed left to respect human rights and international humanitarian law in promoting the full participation of land-rights claimants in shaping and crafting public policy around land rights.
Topic:: Agriculture, Poverty, Reform, and Peace
Political Geography:: Asia and Philippines

34565. Building the Peace. Rural Education and conflict in Colombia

Author:: Mabel Gonzalez Bustelo
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
Abstract:: The conflict that has affected Colombia for the last 50 years, has reinforced economic inequalities and widened the divide between urban and rural areas. It has also severely affected children’s access to quality education. There is now a three-year difference in learning levels between children in the same grade in urban and rural areas. To bridge this gap and ensure sustainable reintegration of children formerly associated with armed groups, considerable investments should be made to strengthen access to quality education in rural areas. This is a co-publication in Spanish published by NOREF and the Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC).
Topic:: Agriculture, Poverty, Child Poverty, Conflict, Economic Inequality, Urban, and Rural
Political Geography:: Colombia and South America

34566. The Making of a State: Transition in Montenegro

Author:: Igor Lukšic and Milorad Katnic
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The first Montenegrin state started to take shape in the 8th century with the arrival of the Slavs and their mingling with the local population. Originally it was called Doclea, whose ruler received a royal insignia by the Pope Gregory VII in 1078 (Andrijaševi ´c and Rastoder 2006). Montenegro fell under the Ottomans in the late 15th century, but acted as a de facto independent state until formal recognition came at the Berlin Congress in 1878. Despite being on the victors’ side in the Balkan Wars and in World War I, it was annexed by Serbia and lost its sovereignty in 1918. After the Second World War it became a part of socialist Yugoslavia, where it remained until 1992. Montenegro’s political transition started in earnest after the Belgrade Agreement signed in March 2002. Montenegro held an independence referendum in 2006 and was subsequently admitted to the United Nations and other international organizations. Today Montenegro is engaged in accession talks with the European Union (EU).
Topic:: History, Elections, State, and Transition
Political Geography:: Europe and Montenegro

34567. Rent Seeking and Entrepreneurship: Internet Startups in China

Author:: Tain-Jy Chen and Ying-Hua Ku
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: Against all odds, China has developed one of the most vibrant Internet industries in the world. According to Atomico (2015), which tracked venture capital (VC)-funded startups in the world, there were 156 Internet startups that had been founded in 2003–14 and that had become billion-dollar companies (based on market capitalization) by the end of 2014 after initial public offerings (IPOs). The United States leads the list with 86 companies, followed by China’s 30, and Sweden’s 5. All Chinese billion-dollar startups are consumer-related, while billion-dollar startups in other countries include business applications, games, and others. Similarly, the Wall Street Journal tracked unlisted VC-funded startups and identified 78 of them whose market valuation (measured by financing terms in the most recent round of funding) had exceeded one billion dollars in March 2015 (Table 1). The list includes startups in the Internet as well as other sectors. Again, the United States leads the list with 50 ventures, followed by China’s 8. All Chinese ventures are Internet-related, if Xiaomi, which tops the list of all startups and sells smartphones on the Internet, is also counted as an Internet company (Dow Jones Venture Source 2015). In short, Chinese startups are numerous, vigorous, and most successful in Internet-based consumer business.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Internet, Entrepreneurship, and Business
Political Geography:: China and Asia

34568. The G20 and Global Governance

Author:: Stephen Kirchner
Publication Date:: 10-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: The Group of 20 sees itself as “the premier forum for international economic cooperation” (G20 2009b). This article examines its evolution and performance, and member countries’ compliance with G20 summit commitments. The G20 evolved as a response to the shortcomings of its predecessor, the G7/8. Yet its creation allowed member countries to avoid confronting many of the problems that arose out of the earlier forum. The best defense of the G20 is that it is the only institution of its type, but it still consumes scarce political and diplomatic capital, sometimes to the detriment of the policy objectives to which it is notionally committed. In this article, I compare data on members’ compliance with G20 summit commitments to proxy measures of the quality of domestic policies and institutions. While the proxies predict G20 compliance, it turns out that G20 compliance has no power to predict subsequent changes in domestic policies and institutions. The main implication of this data is that international economic and political cooperation is a symptom, not a cause, of domestic policies and institutions. Improvement in domestic policies makes the best contribution to advancing the G20 agenda, but such improvements do not appear to depend on the G20 process.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Governance, and G20
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34569. Rethinking the International Monetary System

Author:: John B. Taylor
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: In previous articles in the annual monetary issue of the Cato Journal, I drew on historical facts and economic theory to explain the benefits of rules-based monetary policy and why legislation could help the United States reap those benefits (Taylor 2011, 2013a). In this article, I discuss the international aspects of monetary policy, a subject often glossed over in modern debates about rules-based policy, at least compared with discussions about the classic rulesbased gold standard.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, and Monetary Policy
Political Geography:: North America, Global Focus, and United States of America

34570. Subnational Economic Freedom and Performance in the United States and Canada

Author:: Daniel L. Bennett
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: The Cato Journal
Institution:: The Cato Institute
Abstract:: During his illustrious career spanning more than half a century, Richard Vedder has tirelessly advocated for limited government and free enterprise. Much of his scholarship has focused on examining how fiscal and labor market policies consistent with the principles of economic freedom are associated with economic and social benefits such as stronger economic performance (Vedder 1981, 1990), lower unemployment (Vedder and Gallaway 1996, 1997), and poverty alleviation (Vedder and Gallaway 2002). Vedder has also examined the impact of government policy on income inequality (Vedder 2006; Vedder and Gallaway 1986, 1999; Vedder, Gallaway, and Sollars 1988), an area that he and I have collaborated to study (Bennett and Vedder 2013, 2015). Thus, Vedder’s scholarship has contributed to our understanding of the impact that economic freedom exerts on economic outcomes.
Topic:: Government, Income Inequality, Economy, and Free Trade
Political Geography:: Canada, North America, and United States of America

34571. Beyond Propaganda: Soviet Active Measures in Putin’s Russia

Author:: Steve Abrams
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: This paper investigates the role of Soviet-style “active measures” as an element of modern Russian “political warfare.” These techniques were commonly used during the Soviet-era, encompassing a broad range of influence activities, including: covert media placement, forgery, agents of influence, “friendship” societies, front organizations, and more. Today, in Putin’s Russia, these active measures are once again in use, updated for digitally interconnected “global information space.” The paper begins with an introduction to active measures, then discusses their role in Soviet foreign policy and the attempts by the American “Active Measures Working Group” to counter them. The paper then describes how the Soviet active measures playbook has been updated for the modern era, using three case studies as examples. The paper concludes with a discussion on strategy, reproducing a number of recommendations from key publications.
Topic:: Media, Information Age, Propaganda, and political warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, and Eastern Europe

34572. The Threats and Challenges of a Multipolar World: A Ukraine Crisis Case Study

Author:: Oleksil Izhak
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: As the post-cold-war unipolar system transforms into a polycentric one, it becomes more complex and less predictable. The new system may be crushed with less effort than needed to keep it on track. The polycentric international system, as it emerges, suffers from hybrid threats. They are difficult to identify and predict. Russia pioneered exploiting the new vulnerabilities to gain unilateral advantages. Russia's hybrid war against Ukraine was just a starting episode of her wider attempt to crush the whole world order. Responsible world powers have either to fix the vulnerabilities of the polycentric world, or to block malicious attempts to exploit it.
Topic:: Imperialism, Military Strategy, Post Cold War, and Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

34573. Torn Asunder from Within: Ukraine and the Lessons for Global Security

Author:: Iryna Klymenko
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: Russia’s non-standard intervention in Ukraine was accomplished in four major areas—the economic system as a whole, the energy and security sectors, and information policy. The deliberate policy of the Kremlin has transformed Ukraine into economically fragile and institutionally weak nation. Due to efforts of former regime and Russian intelligence agencies, main Ukrainian government institutions were involved in semi-legal, semi-criminal transnational business scheme. Macro-financial vulnerability of Ukraine, in conjunction with a strained economic structure, proved to be the necessary and sufficient conditions for preparing and implementing hybrid aggression. The Ukrainian precedent might be replicated as a special operation to destroy statehood, whereby disruption is achieved through the escalation of internal political and economic challenges. One universal means of undermining statehood in an era of hybrid wars is to encourage corruption among holders of the highest office.
Topic:: Security, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Foreign Interference
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

34574. ‘Good’ and ‘Bad’ Investments: Everything You Always Wanted to Know about Ukrainian Commanders but Were Afraid to Ask

Author:: Michael Komin and Alexander Vileykis
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The military conflict in Southeastern Ukraine provides vast research opportunities in most diverse areas and in a zone of ongoing combat with all its attendant social ramifications. This article provides a review of some key questions of this war: why volunteer battalions conduct some harmful and inhumane acts and what may be done next to prevent violence after the war. Because war creates big areas without any control, there are huge non-transferable investments, incidents like torturing civil people, etc. The authors try to explain what conditions may impact the behavior of battalions and what should the governments do after the war ends.
Topic:: Imperialism, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

34575. The Relevance of Clausewitz’s Theory of War to Contemporary Conflict Resolution

Author:: Jasmin Cajic
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: This article argues that Clausewitz’s writing on war nearly 200 years ago is still relevant for contemporary conflict resolution from at least three aspects: his idea that war is “the continuation of policy by other means”; secondly his analysis of the nature of war and the trinity theory; and finally his understanding of the nature of the strategy. The analysis in this article found that, if there is good policy from which to derive a strategy, and if we are able to apply it efficiently, with support of the people and international community, we have created solid preconditions to win the war. In addition, Clausewitz’s view of the issues associated with war, strategy and conflict resolution is important for understanding the major issues and decision making even while history and reality constrain his abstractions with today’s experience. His theories and concepts are as relevant today as they were two hundred years ago. Therefore, the twenty-first century strategists and leaders are recommended to take into consideration Clausewitz’s theories on war and strategy because they are still applicable today. In short, Clausewitz is a theorist for the twenty-first century.
Topic:: War, Political Theory, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34576. The Rise of Intelligence Studies: A Model for Germany? Download

Author:: Alessandro Corvaja, Brigita Jeraj, and Uwe M. Borghoff
Publication Date:: 01-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: Intelligence Studies have established themselves as a common subject in higher education in the Anglosphere. Germany so far offers no dedicated program in the field. A postgraduate program that promotes an understanding of the role and context of intelligence, strengthens analytical skills and deepens subject-matter expertise would combine the best features of various educational models, and provide a real contribution to building a cadre of highly qualified intelligence professionals. In this research report, the authors succinctly document the state of the discipline, present examples of some twelve degree programs, and, finally, develop initial proposals for an intelligence curriculum for German universities.
Topic:: Education, Intelligence, and Higher Education
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, and Central Europe

34577. Emerging Security Challenges: An Introduction

Author:: Detlef Puhl
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The security landscape at the beginning of the 21st century is a fluid and dynamic one, characterized by developments in technology, in weapons and communications systems as well as by shifts in the international political landscape and organizational structures of non-state actors posing serious and imminent threats to national and international security. Within this environment NATO finds itself at a crossroads. Its Strategic Concept, adopted in Lisbon in November 2010, marks the beginning of its adjustment to this new reality, reflecting a security environment with effects far beyond NATO and its partners – an environment which will see the fundamental global shifts continue in the coming years: In the global distribution of power, including revisionist activities in our immediate neighborhood and a fundamental challenge to our rules-based international order by mainly radical islamist organizations; in demographics; in economics; in technology; in the environment. Faced by such very different global challenges to our security, NATO must seek to maintain its cohesion and develop a broader notion of transatlantic security and enhance its relevance in meeting modern day threats and challenges.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Science and Technology, and Weapons
Political Geography:: Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

34578. Policy and the Internet of Things

Author:: Sean S. Costigan and Gustav Lindstrom
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: Cybersecurity has steadily crept to the top of the national security agenda. Simultaneously, a merger of the physical and virtual worlds is noticeably underway. A confluence of technologies has come together to make this possible under the rubric known as the Internet of Things (IoT). This merger will bring sensors and computing devices totaling in the billions to connect objects together in a network that does not require human intervention, along with which will come much vaunted benefits, knowable risks, uncertainties and considerable security dilemmas. Using the past as a predictor of future behavior, a vast increase in hackable devices will create equally vast vulnerabilities that will now touch the physical world. Yet the IoT will also present opportunities that are just now being imagined, likely making the Internet revolution seem small by comparison. While technological growth often appears to outpace policy, government retains the power to convene and ultimately to regulate. This article examines why policymakers should care about the IoT, the significant trends for the next five to ten years, and likely security implications stemming from those trends. The article finalizes with an overview of policy considerations.
Topic:: Security, National Security, Cybersecurity, and Internet
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34579. Industry and Policy: Partnerships in Disruptive Times

Author:: Leendert van Bochoven
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The rate of (technological) change in today´s dynamic environment calls for new policies and collaboration models between governments and industry. Two key elements will underpin successful policies for dealing with innovation and the impact of technology: an innovation ecosystem and an innovation platform. Just like companies are involving customers in private sector innovation, governments are seeking to involve citizens. There is a growing trend to engage citizens more and more in the co-creation of public services. The citizen co-creation approach also has merits for the defense and security industry, and there are several successful examples showcasing new ways of collaboration, overcoming the traditional obstacles. Three key recommendations will enable governments to overcome innovation challenges. These recommendations depend on two essential enablers to deal with disruptive innovation in government organizations: an innovation ecosystem and an innovation platform. Without both, innovation is for sure going to fail. Given the rate of unprecedented technological change, governments, militaries and businesses have to find creative ways to work and innovate together.
Topic:: Privatization, Science and Technology, Public Sector, and Innovation
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34580. Nanotechnology and Global Security

Author:: Adrian M. Ionescu
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: Nanotechnology enables new solutions with numerous civilian and military applications. This paper provides an introduction to nanotechnology as a strategic research and industry field, presents trends with key potential impact and examines related policy and security implications. In lieu of conclusion, the author provides a number of policy considerations in regard to the security application of nanotechnology.
Topic:: Civil Society, Science and Technology, Military Strategy, and Nanotechnology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34581. Biology’s Misuse Potential

Author:: Filippa Lentzos
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The international community has laid down clear red lines about the use of biology to enhance national armaments. Advances in bioscience and biomedicine are, however, significantly eroding technological barriers to acquiring and using biological weapons. This article describes recent scientific trends and analyses their security implications. Three emerging fields of research that have particularly high potential for misuse are considered in more detail: potentially pandemic pathogens, synthetic biology and neurobiology. It is argued that continued efforts are required in multilateral, national and scientific spheres to strengthen the red lines and to foster responsible science.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Biological Weapons, Pandemic, Biology, and Medicine
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34582. Hybrid Warfare and the Changing Character of Conflict

Author:: Bastain Giegerich
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The idea that international conflict might be seeing more hybrid warfare and hybrid threats has animated debate among security and defense establishments in the run-up to NATO’s 2016 Warsaw Summit. While the Alliance has located the issue of hybrid war in the specific context of the Russia/Ukraine crisis and in 2014 triggered efforts to prepare NATO to effectively meet hybrid warfare threats, the scope of the challenge is much wider and the core dynamics are often located outside of the military realm. The article reviews the recent conceptual debates about hybrid warfare, suggesting that hybrid conflicts defy our attempts to press them into known categories and locate them clearly on a spectrum of war and peace. NATO Member States will have to invest in resilience and conventional deterrence to counter hybrid threats.
Topic:: NATO, Imperialism, Military Strategy, Deterrence, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North Atlantic, Ukraine, and North America

34583. Making Sense of Hybrid Warfare

Author:: James K. Wither
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The term hybrid warfare has been widely analyzed by scholars, policymakers and commentators since Russia occupied Crimea in March 2014. The topic has ceased to be a subject only studied by military strate-gists, but has entered the wider policy domain as a significant security challenge for the West. This article seeks to place the debate about hybrid warfare in a broader analytical and historical context and summarizes discussion to date on this and related strategic concepts. The Russian approach to hybrid warfare as demonstrated by operations in Ukraine is a particular focus for discussion.
Topic:: NATO, Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Collective Defense, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North Atlantic, Ukraine, North America, and Crimea

34584. Non-State Actors in the Russo-Ukrainian War

Author:: Joshua P. Mulford
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The current war in Ukraine has highlighted the fact that in this new age of warfare non-state actors play a larger role than ever before. The influence of the media, think tanks and academia, religious groups, organized crime, war militias, NGOs and GONGOs, and the Ukrainian diaspora is pervasive. Kremlin-controlled media coverage of the war in Eastern Ukraine, including the downing of the MH-17 jet, is offset by the newer grassroots pro-Ukrainian media outlets such as Ukraine Today. Think tanks and academia focused on Ukraine and Russia are also battling for visibility in the government and among the populous. The impact of religious groups on the Ukrainian conflict is best featured in the Russian Orthodox Church’s rationalizing the invasion of Crimea as Russia’s divine right. The Ukrainian church, a subset of the ROC, has broken off and played a proactive role in assisting the war effort by pro-Ukrainian militias. The almost concurrent rise of militias and organized crime in Ukraine pose as a precarious issue for the future of the country. As the government is incapable of regaining sovereignty of its territory, stand-alone militias have risen to fight the Russian invasion in Eastern Ukraine. Organized crime has capitalized on the instability of the region, and with the annexation of Crimea, a new system of black market activities has been opened. The outside world is taking an interest in the Ukrainian plight, as well as in the form of NGO support, and in the case of Russia, GONGOs to promote policies in line with their agendas. The Ukrainian diaspora has also fought to influence policy making towards Ukraine, forming committees and sending supplies to the front line. It is unclear how much influence these non-state actors will have in the future of Ukraine, but it is quite certain that they each play a significant role in the way the conflict is perceived.
Topic:: Military Strategy, Territorial Disputes, Non State Actors, and Media
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

34585. Cyber Operations and Gray Zones: Challenges for NATO

Author:: Oliver Fitton
Publication Date:: 03-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The Gray Zone represents a space between peaceful state rivalries and war. Within this space actors have developed hybrid strategies to extend their influence. This concept of conflict is best illustrated by Russia’s actions in Eastern Ukraine in 2014. Gray Zone doctrine leverages ambiguity to create an environment in which adversaries are unable to make strategic decisions in a timely and confident manner. Cyber Operations, because of the attribution problem, lend themselves to this kind of conflict. This article explores the interactions between the Gray Zone and cyber operations and considers questions which NATO must address in order to adapt.
Topic:: NATO, Diplomacy, Territorial Disputes, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North Atlantic, Ukraine, and North America

34586. Karachi: Organized Crime in a Key Megacity

Author:: Nazia Hussain and Louise Shelley
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: Crime and terror groups are key non-state actors in Karachi and employ crime and violence to achieve political and economic gains. They have a different relationship with the state than crime groups in Italy where the state has more resources to share with the crime groups. Instead, much more complex relationships exist between the state and the non-state actors in this difficult environment where crime and terror groups have become a part of diffuse governance of the city, including provision of housing and water. Our analysis differs from others who suggest that crime and terror groups have stepped into a power void. We suggest that the political parties rather than the crime and terror groups are at the forefront of violent and criminalized politics. Therefore, violent non-state actors are not the ultimate arbiters of the political order. Crime and terror groups remain vulnerable as they may lose the state’s support and without this they face difficulty surviving in this highly competitive environment.
Topic:: Crime, Terrorism, Non State Actors, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Middle East, and Karachi

34587. Global Dimensions of Organized Crime and Ways of Preventing Threats at International Level

Author:: Nika Chitadze
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The present paper predominantly focuses on the different approaches related to the definition of organized crime, the primary conditions that create a convenient foundation upon which organized crime can develop, the main activities of organized criminal groups, and leading organized criminal formations across the different regions of the world, in particular, the Italian Mafia, the Japanese bōryokudan (Yakuza), Chinese triads, Colombian drug cartels, and Russian criminal organizations (“Russian Mafia”), and so on. The second part of the paper is dedicated to the review of the international experience of fighting against transnational organized crime, particularly with regard to different international conventions and agreements within the nineteenth century and first half of the twentieth century. It also explores this phenomena on a UN-level and with reference to a range of European institutions (the EU, Council of Europe). The concluding section sees an examination of the role of law enforcement agencies in the fight against organized crime.
Topic:: Crime, International Cooperation, Law Enforcement, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34588. Transnational Organized Crime – Latvian Challenges and Responses

Author:: Alekejs Loskutovs
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: This article provides recent evidence from Latvia on activities of organized crime groups, covering illegal border crossing, drug trafficking, economic crime, money laundering, theft of vehicles, human trafficking, and the corruption related to all these types of crime. The concluding section presents regional and European initiatives to counter organized crime, in which Latvian law enforcement agencies participate, as well as the national project to build a fence on the border with the Russian Federation.
Topic:: Corruption, Crime, Law Enforcement, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Latvia

34589. Maritime Piracy as a Form of Organized Crime: A Strategic Management Approach

Author:: Aneta Nowakowska-Krystman
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The features of successful criminal organizations, including maritime piracy organizations, seem to be consistent with those that have been observed in business organizations. Research has proved that the sources of advantage and value creation in business organizations are intangible factors, including leadership, obsession for action, and creativity, among others. The idea behind this presentation of maritime piracy is based on the theory of the resources, skills and competencies of strategic management. According to the classification which has been adopted, it has been observed that the success factors of maritime piracy are: skill capital, innovative capital, and client capital. The observations were made using office-based research and a diagnostic survey.
Topic:: Crime, Terrorism, Maritime, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34590. Cyberspace as the Environment Affected by Organized Crime Activity

Author:: Piotr Dela
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: This article provides an overview of the main issues surrounding the use of cyberspace as the field on which information warfare is waged. It also investigates the role of organized criminal activities. The basic impact, place and role of recognition and counter-recognition in cyberspace are identified. The economic impact in terms of the level of development of cyberspace is also assessed.
Topic:: Crime, Cybersecurity, Information Age, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34591. Terrorism and Organized Crime

Author:: Sam Mullins and James K. Wither
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: This article begins with an assessment of the similarities and differences between terrorists and criminals, including profiles, methods, systems of organization and motives. Notably, the article identifies seven categories of crimes committed by terrorists: 1) Inherent/violent, 2) Preparation/facilitation, 3) Funding, 4) Specialized terrorism offenses, 5) Vigilantism/public relations, 6) Miscellaneous/Spontaneous/Unrelated Offences, and 7) Previous criminal records. Next, the crime-terror nexus is discussed and four types of relationships between terrorists and criminals are identified: 1) Interaction, 2) Appropriation, 3) Assimilation, and 4) Transformation. The article concludes with a discussion of the concept of convergence between terrorism and organized crime, and implications for counter-terrorism and law-enforcement.
Topic:: Terrorism, Law Enforcement, Counter-terrorism, and Organized Crime
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34592. The Mobilization and Recruitment of Foreign Fighters: The Case of Islamic State, 2012–2014

Author:: Almakan Orozobekova
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: This article examines how foreign fighters were recruited and mobilized for Islamic State in 2012-2014. Institutional and individual approaches to this phenomenon form the basis of understanding the mechanisms used for the mobilization and recruitment of foreign fighters. The former refers to a terrorist institution that plays a key role in the recruitment of individuals (top-down/institutional), and the latter refers to the self-radicalization process that foreign fighters undergo (bottom-up/ individual). In particular, the research focuses on an analysis of Islamic State and the recruitment/mobilization of sixteen foreign fighters from Tunisia, Saudi Arabia, France, and the United Kingdom. The analysis shows that both top-down and bottom-up concepts are important but that the extent to which each is used depends on the profiles of the country in question. The study concludes by demonstrating the comparative value of top-down and bottom-up approaches in terms of understanding contemporary terrorist recruitment and providing policy recommendations.
Topic:: Terrorism, Islamic State, and Recruitment
Political Geography:: United Kingdom, Europe, Middle East, France, Saudi Arabia, and Tunisia

34593. NATO Nuclear Deterrence: The Warsaw Summit and Beyond

Author:: Matthew P. Anderson
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: NATO’s Deterrence and Defense Posture Review (DDPR, 2012), concluded that “the Alliance’s nuclear force posture currently meets the criteria for an effective deterrence and defense posture.” In addition to the strategic nuclear forces of France, the United Kingdom, and the United States, NATO’s “posture” notably included, then and now, some 200 B-61 “tactical” nuclear bombs stored at sites in five longtime member states. Since release of the DDPR, NATO relations with Russia have deteriorated. It would appear that the American B-61 nukes, soon to be improved through a multibillion-dollar life extension program, are destined to stay in Europe. Beneath the surface, however, linger disquieting questions about the fabled three-C’s of NATO’s deterrence – its military capability, its credibility and its communication to potential adversaries and partners alike. This paper suggests six nuclear deterrence reforms that NATO should consider following the Warsaw Summit in July 2016 in order to regain the credibility it once had during the Cold War.
Topic:: Defense Policy, NATO, Nuclear Weapons, and Deterrence
Political Geography:: Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

34594. A Changing Security Paradigm. New Roles for New Actors – The Russian Approach

Author:: Miroslaw Banasik
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: The success of the Russian Federation in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea attest to the fact that the hybrid warfare constitutes an effective tool for achieving political objectives. This article evaluates the nature of hybrid warfare based on theoretical publications on the art of war and doctrinal documents of the Russian Federation, and characterizes the practical dimensions of hybrid warfare. It can be concluded on that basis that hybrid warfare and organized crime constitute real threats to European safety and security. International organizations such as NATO and the European Union so far have not drawn up neither the strategy nor effective tools for countering these phenomena.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Military Strategy, European Union, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Russia, Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

34595. Towards More Effective Cooperation? The Role of States in Shaping NATO-EU Interaction and Cooperation

Author:: Tinatin Aghniashvill
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: Effective cooperation between the European Union (EU) and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is not only desirable, but rather mandatory in this interdependent and interlinked World. The contemporary multifaceted security threats and challenges have diminished the importance of the national borders and made the members of the institutions almost equally vulnerable. Due to the inherited similarities among organizations, the perception of burden sharing seems natural. However, the existing cooperation framework leaves a big room for improvement. The article explores the factors limiting effective cooperation between the organizations and the analysis is derived from studying individual states’ (dual and non-dual members) behavior in shaping institutions’ interaction. The paper analyzes the roles of the EU and NATO during the Libyan crisis in the neighborhood of Europe and their interaction in Afghanistan – beyond the Euro-Atlantic area. The findings of the analysis show that some of the non-dual members of the organization “hold institutions hostage” ; fragmented positions of the dual members impede the elaboration of a holistic EU policy on crisis management (CSDP) and eventually, hamper formation of a joint EU-NATO strategic vision. Furthermore, lack of division of labor on the ground leads to overlapping of functions to certain extent and cooperation among institutions is better on operational rather than on the strategic level.
Topic:: Security, NATO, European Union, and Collective Defense
Political Geography:: Europe, North Atlantic, and North America

34596. The Rise and Consolidation of Islamic State: External Intervention and Sectarian Conflict

Author:: Abdul Basir Yosufi
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: This research paper examines the extent to which both the United States (US) intervention in 2003 and sectarian conflict in Iraq and the region contributed to the rise and consolidation of the Islamic State (IS). It is argued that the US intervention contributed to the rise of IS by creating a strategic cause for mobilization of insurgency while insufficient counterinsurgency resources and doctrine, and the lack of a post-war plan enabled the insurgency to consolidate. Although the US adapted its strategy and deployed additional resources as part of the “surge,” which succeeded in weakening of the insurgents significantly, the premature withdrawal of US troops allowed for a revival of the insurgency which eventually evolved into IS. The sectarian conflict in Iraq and the region further contributed to the rise and consolidation of IS by helping in prolif-eration of the group’s underlying ideology, increasing funding opportunities for the insurgents and driving the Sunni communities to support the Islamic State
Topic:: Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, ISIS, Islamic State, and Military Intervention
Political Geography:: Africa, United States, and Middle East

34597. A Euro Border Guard and Hybrid Warfare. An Art Theft Perspective: Human Dimensions and a Moral Imperative

Author:: Charles Hill
Publication Date:: 09-2016
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Connections
Institution:: Partnership for Peace Consortium of Defense Academies and Security Studies Institutes
Abstract:: Art theft, particularly the looting of works of art from antiquity, is an element of today’s terrorism. Stealing and looting art works, including theft by destruction, are ancient and continuing practices. To counter art theft, modern hybrid, multifaceted or multidimensional warfare requires innovation. Integrated with the human dimension in countering art theft, there is an enduring moral imperative to combat and contain the worst effects of looting and the theft of art through anti-terrorism work. The idea of a European Army may be better thought of and developed as a Euro Border Guard, a gendarmerie with anti-smuggling art and antiquities training, leaving NATO to continue its mission
Topic:: Terrorism, Arts, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34598. Europe, Don't Let Us Down: Voices of refugees and migrants in Greece

Author:: Renata Rendon and Matta Samiou
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: Since the beginning of 2015 more than one million migrants, including refugees, fleeing war, persecution, natural disasters and poverty, have travelled through Turkey to Greece in search of safety and a dignified life in Europe. Lacking safe and legal alternatives, they put their lives in the hands of smugglers and risk everything during perilous sea and land crossings. Oxfam and ActionAid have listened to hundreds of refugee and migrant women and men on Lesvos island, in Athens and in the Epirus region of northwest Greece to understand why they fled their countries, what their immediate needs are, and what they plan to do next. This paper presents the key messages that they want European people and their governments to hear.
Topic:: Migration, Refugees, Refugee Crisis, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Greece

34599. The Impact of Food Assistance on Pastoralist Livelihoods in Humanitarian Crises: An evidence synthesis protocol

Author:: Karol Czuba and Tyler O'Niell
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: This protocol outlines plans for conducting an evidence synthesis on the impact of food aid on pastoralist livelihoods. The distinctiveness of pastoralists - including factors related to the erosion of their livelihood strategies and the difficulty posed by identification of frequently mobile households - and their particular vulnerability to humanitarian crises suggest that the effects of humanitarian interventions targeting them are likely to differ from other populations. The purpose of this review is to use evidence synthesis methods to: systematically identify all available evidence on the impact of food assistance to pastoralist livelihoods (during and after) a humanitarian crisis; compare and contrast the effects of assistance delivered (by population, assistance type etc.); qualitatively and (if possible) quantitatively synthesize identified data and concepts; assess the quality of evidence, as appropriate; and identify gaps in the current evidence-base and further comment on future research needs in this space. To the review team's knowledge, this will be the first evidence synthesis that specifically addresses the impacts of food assistance provided in the context of humanitarian interventions on pastoralists' livelihoods. This review is commissioned under the Humanitarian Evidence Programme, a UK Aid-funded partnership between Oxfam and Feinstein International Center that aims to improve humanitarian policy and practice.
Topic:: Humanitarian Aid, Food, Food Security, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

34600. Hotspots, Rights Denied: The lack of a legal framework is threatening the rights of migrants reaching Italy

Author:: Guilia Capitani
Publication Date:: 06-2016
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:: The flow of migrants into Italy continues to be dealt with as an 'emergency' situation. The EU's 'hotspot' approach, outlined in the European Agenda for Migration of May 2015 as a short-term measure, has been implemented in Italy and Greece and is an approach involving EU officers, in collaboration with national authorities, in the identification, fingerprinting and registration of migrants. This paper from Oxfam Italia examines the hotspot approach in Italy through the experiences of humanitarian agencies and civil society organizations on the ground, and through the voices of migrants themselves. It concludes that, due to the lack of a legal framework, the hotspot approach seriously violates the fundamental rights of people reaching Italian shores. Oxfam calls for the Italian government and the European Union to define hotspot procedures and activities in EU and national regulations and to take medium-term action to expand the capacity of the receiving and support systems in Italy.
Topic:: Migration, Diaspora, Immigration, Refugees, and Legal Theory
Political Geography:: Europe, Greece, Italy, and Mediterranean

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COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY PRESS