Search

Begin New Search Topic International Relations

2901. Simmering Fire in Asia: Averting Sino-Japanese Strategic Conflict

Author:
Michael Swaine and Minxin Pei
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The rapid deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations in recent years has raised geopolitical tensions in East Asia and could embroil China and Japan in a dangerous strategic conflict that could be threatening to U.S. interests. China's rise, Japan's growing assertiveness in foreign policy, and new security threats and uncertainties in Asia are driving the two countries increasingly further apart. Political pandering to nationalist sentiments in each country has also contributed to the mismanagement of bilateral ties. But Japan and China are not destined to repeat the past. Their leaders must ease the tensions, restore stability, and pursue a new agenda of cooperation as equals. For its part, the United States must play a more positive and active role.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Japan, China, Israel, East Asia, and Asia

2902. Back From the Brink: A Strategy for Iraq

Author:
Marina S. Ottaway
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The approval of the Iraqi constitution in the October 15 referendum does not put Iraq on the path to stability and democracy but pushes it toward division into largely autonomous regions. And this new momentum is probably irreversible. Whether it will lead to a catastrophic descent into greater violence or even ethnic cleansing, or to a managed transformation into a loose federation of regions enjoying extreme autonomy, depends on whether it becomes possible for Sunni Arabs to form their own region, as Kurds already have and Shias are bound to do once the constitution is in effect. The central thrust of U.S. policy in Iraq must now be to help Sunnis organize an autonomous region and to convince Shias and Kurds that it is in their interest to make this possible. Paradoxically, announcing now a timetable for the inevitable withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq could give Washington additional leverage in influencing all sides to accept the necessary compromises.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Washington, Middle East, and Arabia

2903. Putin's Decline and America's Response

Author:
Anders Åslund
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Russia's regime has gone through a major aggravation during the first year of President Vladimir Putin's second term. The regime suffers from serious overcentralization of power, which has led to a paralysis of policy making. Putin's power base has been shrunk to secret policemen from St. Petersburg. Although his popularity remains high, it is falling. Neither unbiased information nor negative feedback is accepted. As a result, the Putin regime is much more fragile than generally understood. Russia's current abandonment of democracy is an anomaly for such a developed and relatively wealthy country, and it has made Russia's interests part from those of the United States. The United States should not hesitate to promote democracy in Russia, while pragmatically pursuing common interests in nonproliferation and energy.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, America, Europe, and Asia

2904. The Key to Arab Reform: Moderate Islamists

Author:
Amr Hamzawy
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
Before any significant political reform can take place in the Arab world, the United States and Europe need to begin engaging moderate Islamists, an action less thorny than it might seem because Islamists have embraced democratic procedures and have shown a strong commitment to the rule of law. For a long time Arab regimes have frightened the United States and Europe into supporting regimes' repressive measures toward Islamist movements by invoking the nightmare of anti-Western fanatics taking power through the ballot box. However, today's moderate Islamists—while illiberal in many important respects—no longer match the nightmare. Excluding them from the political sphere weakens the chances of democratic reform and increases the likelihood that eventually they will resort to violence.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, and Arabia

2905. Lessons Not Learned: Problems with Western Aid for Law Reform in Postcommunist Countries

Author:
Wade Channell
Publication Date:
05-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
THE FALL OF THE BERLIN WALL IN 1989 and the subsequent breakup of the Soviet Union presented an unparalleled opportunity for fundamental political and economic change in more than two dozen countries. As postcommunist countries sought to attain the economic development of their Western neighbors, it became clear that the existing framework of laws and institutions would not support the desired growth. Reformers and development experts soon identified a panoply of gaps and shortcomings in financial resources, human resources, and organizational capacity, all of which appeared ripe for outside assistance.
Topic:
International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Soviet Union, Portugal, and Berlin

2906. Judicial Reform in China: Lessons from Shanghai

Author:
Veron Mei-Ying Hung
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The George W. Bush administration in September 2002 laid out in the “National Security Strategy of the United States” its strategy toward China: “We welcome the emergence of a strong, peaceful, and prosperous China.” During a trip to Asia in March 2005, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice adopted a similar phrase to welcome “the rise of a confident, peaceful, and prosperous China.”
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Shanghai, and Asia

2907. Evaluating Middle East Reform: How Do We Know When It Is Significant?

Author:
Marina S. Ottaway
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
This short paper launches the second set of studies in the Carnegie Papers Middle East Series. The first set, now also published as a book under the title Uncharted Journey: Promoting Democracy in the Middle East, examined the most important issues concerning democracy promotion and democratic change in the Middle East. One of the conclusions that emerged from those studies is that the Middle East still offers a rather discouraging political picture. There are some liberalized autocracies but no democratic countries in the region. The link between economic and political reform remains weak. Democratic reformers have failed to build strong constituencies, and the organizations with strong constituencies are Islamist rather than democratic. The integration of Islamists in the reform process remains poor. And the United States, now championing democracy in the region, has little credibility in Arab eyes, and still has not consistently integrated democracy promotion in its policy toward the area. Yet, despite all these problems, it is becoming increasingly clear that there is a ferment of reform in the Middle East. But how significant is it?
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Arabia

2908. Legalism Sans Frontières?: U.S. Rule-of-Law Aid in the Arab World

Author:
David M. Mednicoff
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
THE PROBLEM OF KNOWLEDGE IN RULE-OF-LAW PROMOTION, above all the basic question of whether Western rule-of-law aid programs are on the right track to help build the rule of law in recipient countries, is especially acute in the Arab world. Arab states generally share two features that render external rule-of-law aid particularly difficult—long-standing nondemocratic governments, and legal systems that graft Ottoman, European, and contemporary sources onto Islamic norms. We cannot presume that U.S. common-law practitioners can build the rule of law by transporting or transplanting their technocratic techniques into such different legal soil. Indeed, the very idea that people in Arab societies would be receptive to American guidance in legal reform is dubious in the current climate of broad, popular mistrust of the United States.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Arabia, and Arab Countries

2909. The Complexity of Success: The U.S. Role in Russian Rule of Law Reform

Author:
Matthew J. Spence
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
MIXED RESULTS FROM THE PROLIFERATION OF WESTERN RULE OF LAW assistance over the past twenty years has taught us much about what efforts do not work. Criminal justice reform in Russia offers a different type of lesson; it is a rare success story of rule of law promotion. In the 1990s, the U.S. government sought to promote the rule of law in many parts of the former Soviet Union and beyond, but few of these efforts outside Russia produced concrete results. Instead, lawlessness became a primary symptom of the apparent failure of many attempted rule of law reforms in the former Soviet Union.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and Europe

2910. Judicial Reform in China: Lessons from Shanghai

Author:
Veron Mei-Ying Hung
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
The George W. Bush administration in September 2002 laid out in the “National Security Strategy of the United States” its strategy toward China: “We welcome the emergence of a strong, peaceful, and prosperous China.” During a trip to Asia in March 2005, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice adopted a similar phrase to welcome “the rise of a confident, peaceful, and prosperous China.”
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, China, Shanghai, and Asia

2911. Phases of Competition Policy in Europe

Author:
Andreas Resch
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
In the process of globalization, international convergence of competition legislation has steadily gained importance. Yet, specific aspects of European history gave capital markets, corporate governance and competition policies a special flavor. Historically grown peculiarities have to be taken into account when it comes to evaluate actual policy decisions.
Topic:
International Relations, Globalization, and Markets
Political Geography:
United States and Europe

2912. Some Comments Concerning the Advisory Opinion of the International Court of Justice on the Construction of a Wall in the Occupied Palestinian Territory: The Performance of the European Union

Author:
Camela Pérez Bernárdez
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute of European Studies (IES), UC Berkeley
Abstract:
On December 8th, 2003, the United Nations General Assembly adopted a resolution to submit the question concerning the legality of Israel's construction of a wall in the Occupied Palestinian Territory to the International Court of Justice for an advisory opinion. The Court accepted, and thus entered into the Israeli-Palestinian conflict - one of the most far reaching, difficult, and delicate disputes that the international community has faced. The purpose of this paper is two-fold. First, it analyzes the most relevant issues in the Wall case related to jurisdiction and merits. Second, it considers the position of the European Union in terms of the Middle East conflict, and specifically, concerning this advisory opinion.
Topic:
International Relations and International Law
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and United Nations

2913. Montenegro's Referendum

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Although there are some shoals still to be navigated, the narrow pro-independence victory in Montenegro's 21 May 2006 referendum should, on balance, increase rather than diminish stability in the western Balkans. It is in the interest of the European Union (EU), now that its previous policy of keeping Serbia and Montenegro together has run its course, to welcome the new state and speed its accession to international institutions. Podgorica still faces significant challenges associated with transition, but none should affect regional stability, and all can be resolved as the country moves forward with the Stabilisation and Association process towards EU membership. Given the positive international response to the referendum, Montenegro can aspire to becoming a “boring” country moving toward integration with Europe. But its opposition, and Belgrade, need to be persuaded not to renege on their commitments to the EU to accept the referendum result, lest this generate new uncertainties in the region as a Kosovo status decision approaches.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Europe, Caucasus, Kosovo, Serbia, and Balkans

2914. The EU/AU Partnership in Darfur: Not Yet a Winning Combination

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The African Union's (AU) intervention in Sudan's Darfur region tests the effectiveness of its own peace and security structures and those of the European Union (EU). The AU has taken the lead both in the political negotiations between the government and the rebels and in deploying a peace-monitoring mission, the AU Mission in Sudan (AMIS). It has had to rely on outside support for AMIS, with nearly two thirds of its funding coming from the EU's African Peace Facility. The results are mixed. If Darfur is to have stability anytime soon, and the two organisations are to fulfil their ambitions to be major players in crisis prevention and crisis resolution, AMIS must get more troops and a more proactive, civilian-protection mandate, and the EU needs to find ways to go beyond the present limitations of the African Peace Facility in providing assistance.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and Sudan

2915. Nagorno-Karabakh: A Plan for Peace

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Settlement of the long running Nagorno-Karabakh conflict -- the most significant obstacle to stability in the South Caucasus -- remains elusive, despite more optimistic noises recently from Azerbaijan and Armenia. Eleven years after the 1994 ceasefire, burgeoning defence budgets, increasing ceasefire violations, and continuing demonisation by each side of the other side are ominous signs that time for a peace agreement is running out. But a compromise can now be constructed around an approach that, while addressing all the matters in dispute, leaves the core issue of Nagorno-Karabakh's ultimate status open for later resolution, after other measures have been put in place.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

2916. Unifying Darfur's Rebels: A Prerequisite for Peace

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Insecurity in Darfur remains pervasive despite a decline in direct, large-scale fighting between the government and the two main rebel movements, the Sudan Liberation Army/Movement (SLA) and the Justice and Equality Movement (JEM). Maintaining the present uneasy status quo is not the answer. The Khartoum government continues to flout its numerous commitments to neutralise its allied proxy militia, the Janjaweed, and more than two million civilians displaced by the conflict will not return home without a comprehensive political settlement including security guarantees. But the problem is not just on the government side: discord within and between the rebel movements also needs to be resolved if there is to be a chance for sting peace.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Africa and Sudan

2917. Reforming Egypt: In Search of a Strategy

Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Egypt's first multi-candidate presidential election, a response to U.S. pressure, was a false start for reform. Formal pluralism has never seriously limited the dominance of President Mubarak's National Democratic Party (NDP); extension to the presidential level is a token so long as the opposition is too weak to produce plausible candidates. If the further reforms Mubarak has promised are to be meaningful, they should be aimed at recasting state/NDP relations and, above all, enhancing parliament's powers. As a start, Mubarak should ensure free and fair November legislative elections. The legal opposition must make the case for these changes and overcome its divisions if it is to become relevant and be able to compete with the Muslim Brothers for popular influence. The U.S. and others should support judicial supervision of elections, refrain from pressing for quick, cosmetic results, and back a longer-term, genuine reform process.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
United States, North Africa, and Egypt

2918. Nagorno-Karabakh: Viewing the Conflict from the Ground

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh is the most significant obstacle to peace and stability in the South Caucasus. Eleven years into a ceasefire, the parties have been unable to sign a single document bringing them closer to a settlement. Whatever is being done at the internationally mediated negotiations, at ground level resumed war appears a real possibility. There is need to counter the hate propaganda and demonising engaged in by both sides and unlock the potential for confidence building and dialogue between average Azeris and Armenians before the memories of cohabitation fade and the divide becomes virtually unbridgeable.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and South Caucasus

2919. Bridging Kosovo's Mitrovica Divide

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The international community has properly decreed that Kosovo's final status must not involve division of its territory. But this declaration has not been followed by sufficient action. Belgrade's policy of pursuing some form of partition is far advanced in the restive northern city of Mitrovica and its hinterland, and a major security, political and financial effort is required to save the situation. Capacity should be built immediately, and its implementation should begin once the Contact Group has declared its support for Kosovo's future as a functional, conditionally independent state within its present borders.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Government
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe and Kosovo

2920. Authoritarianism and Political Party Reform in Pakistan

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Although the dangers are evident, the international community continues to support General Pervez Musharraf because of his perceived cooperation in the war on terror, ignoring unconstitutional constraints on the civilian opposition. However, the military's refusal to cede real power to civilians and its marginalisation of moderate parties has boosted religious extremists. Instability is worsening, and sectarian conflict threatens to spin out of control. Lacking robust international support for a democratic transition, mainstream parties struggle to survive, subjected to coercion and violence. They can be the most effective safeguard against the religious lobby's manifestly anti-Western agenda, but only if allowed to function freely in a democratic environment. They need outside help but must also get more serious about reforming themselves.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Pakistan and Asia

2921. China and Taiwan: Uneasy Détente

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
After drifting toward crisis for much of 2004, the outlook for stability across the Taiwan Strait has improved. Constraints on Taiwan pursuing pro-independence initiatives that risk conflict with China will likely remain strong through to the end of President Chen Shui-bian's term of office in 2008. These include a reinvigorated political opposition and Chinese initiatives that have won some poplar support in Taiwan and weakened the drive for independence. Most importantly, the U.S. appears determined to deter not only a Chinese attack but also provocative Taiwan independence moves.
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, China, Taiwan, and Asia

2922. Iran: What Does Ahmadi-Nejad's Victory Mean?

Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The surprise election of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, who is being sworn in as president this week, has given rise to dire predictions about Iran's domestic and foreign policies and relations with the U.S. and the European Union. There are reasons for concern. Based on his rhetoric, past performance, and the company he keeps, Ahmadi-Nejad appears a throwback to the revolution's early days: more ideological, less pragmatic, and anti- American. But for the West, and the U.S. in particular, to reach and act upon hasty conclusions would be wrong. Iran is governed by complex institutions and competing power centres that inherently favour continuity over change. More importantly , none of the fundamentals has changed: the regime is not about to collapse; it holds pivotal cards on Iraq and nuclear proliferation; and any chance of modifying its behaviour will come, if at all, through serious, coordinated EU and U.S. efforts to engage it.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Human Welfare
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, and Middle East

2923. Can Haiti Hold Elections in 2005?

Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Massive technical, political and security obstacles must be overcome very quickly or Haiti's elections -- municipal and local in October, parliamentary and presidential in November -- will have to be postponed. In particular the UN mission (MINUSTAH), other international actors and the transitional government need to move faster at registering voters, persuading the failed state's citizens that the exercise is meaningful, and disarming both urban gangs and former military. Otherwise, turnout is likely to be unsatisfactory, credibility of the outcome will suffer, and the government's legitimacy will be in question.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Government
Political Geography:
United Nations, Caribbean, and Haiti

2924. The Jerusalem Powder Keg

Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
While the world focuses on Gaza, the future of Israeli-Palestinian relations in fact may be playing itself out away from the spotlight, in Jerusalem. With recent steps, Israel is attempting to solidify its hold over a wide area in and around the city, creating a far broader Jerusalem. If the international community and specifically the U.S. are serious about preserving and promoting a viable two-state solution, they need to speak far more clearly and insistently to halt actions that directly and immediately jeopardise that goal. And if that solution is ever to be reached, they will need to be clear that changes that have occurred since Israelis and Palestinians last sat down to negotiate in 2000-2001 will have to be reversed.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and International Relations
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, and Gaza

2925. Afghanistan Elections: Endgame or New Beginning?

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Elections for Afghanistan's National Assembly and Provincial Councils are a critical opportunity to achieve a sustainable peace in a country that is still emerging from a quarter century of conflict, created and exacerbated by ethnic, sectarian, regional and linguistic divisions. A representative and functional National Assembly could prove a crucial step in stabilising Afghanistan by allowing diversity of voices in decision-making. Provincial Councils could also help extend the authority of central government by introducing legally approved layers of devolution.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and Asia

2926. Disengagement and Its Discontents: What Will the Israeli Settlers Do?

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Scheduled for 15 August 2005, Israel's disengagement from Gaza and parts of the northern West Bank has already begun. How Israel for the first time evacuates settlements in the Palestinian Occupied Territories will have profound implications for Israeli-Palestinian relations, but also for Israeli society. Regardless of one's assessment of the settlers and their enterprise -- regarded internationally as illegal, by many Israelis as irresponsible and by others as the embodiment of the Zionist project -- it is bound to be a traumatic event for Israel. If it should be mishandled, accompanied by violent settler resistance or Palestinian attacks, the prospects for subsequent peace would be much bleaker. The international community's interest is to press for complete disengagement and then a credible follow-on political process.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Regional Cooperation
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2927. The AU's Mission in Darfur: Bridging the Gaps

Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The international community is failing in its responsibility to protect the inhabitants of Darfur, many of whom are still dying or face indefinite displacement from their homes. New thinking and bold action are urgently needed. The consensus to support a rough doubling of the African Union (AU) force to 7,731 troops by the end of September 2005 under the existing mandate is an inadequate response to the crisis. The mandate must be strengthened to prioritise civilian protection, and a force level of at least 12,000 to 15,000 is needed urgently now, not in nearly a year as currently envisaged.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Africa

2928. Japan and North Korea: Bones of Contention

Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Relations between Japan and North Korea continue to deteriorate due to concerns over Pyongyang's nuclear weapons program and past abductions of Japanese citizens. Nearly a decade and a half of efforts at normalising relations between the countries have faltered due to Pyongyang's unwillingness to give up that program or come clean over the abductions. For Japan, normalisation would help preserve regional stability and represent one more step toward closure on its wartime history; for North Korea, it would potentially produce the single greatest economic infusion for reviving its moribund economy. Indeed, the prospect of normalisation with Japan is one of the leading incentives that can be offered to North Korea in a deal to end the North's nuclear programs.
Topic:
International Relations, Nuclear Weapons, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Japan, Israel, and North Korea

2929. Iraq: Don't Rush the Constitution

Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The next stage in Iraq's political transition, the drafting and adoption of a permanent constitution, will be critical to the country's long-term stability. Iraqis face a dilemma: rush the constitutional process and meet the current deadline of 15 August 2005 to prevent the insurgents from scoring further political points, or encourage a process that is inclusive, transparent and participatory in an effort to increase popular buy-in of the final product. While there are downsides to delay, they are far outweighed by the dangers of a hurried job that could lead to either popular rejection of or popular resignation to a text toward which they feel little sense of ownership or pride.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Government
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

2930. Post-Election Zimbabwe: What Next?

Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The 31 March 2005 parliamentary elections that confirmed the full control of President Robert Mugabe and his ZANU-PF government were neither free nor fair and disappointed those who hoped they might mark a turn away from the crisis that has dominated Zimbabwe's political life for the past five years. The post-election situation looks deceptively familiar. In fact, Mugabe's era is coming to an end, both the ruling party and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) face existential challenges, and the international community needs to urgently rethink strategies and find new ways to maintain pressure for a peaceful democratic transition.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Zimbabwe

2931. Bosnia's Stalled Police Reform: No Progress, No EU

Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
The international strategy for Bosnia and Herzegovina risks derailment. It consists entirely of preparing the country for eventual European Union (EU) membership in the hope that integration processes will overcome ethno-political divides and their intertwined economic and criminal interests. However, the police reform needed to begin negotiations on a Stabilisation and Association Agreement (SAA) with the EU appears hopelessly blocked. With integration stalled, the international community will have to maintain its High Representative in Sarajevo for at least two to three years, if not longer, to head off dangers of new conflict unless it acts decisively in the next several weeks to confront the chief obstacles to reform: the main Bosnian Serb political party and the Belgrade government of Prime Minister Vojis lav Kostunica.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Europe, Bosnia, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

2932. Élections au Burundi: Reconfiguration radicale du paysage politique

Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Les élections générales au Burundi viennent de conduire à une transformation totale du paysage politique. La victoire remarquable de l ' ancienne rébellion du CNDD-FDD à tous les différents scrutins et l ' élection de son candidat à la présidentielle, Pierre Nkurunziza, le 19 août lui permettent dorénavant de contrôler les principales institutions du pouvoir. En outre ce changement politique important s ' inscrit dans un contexte où les corps de défense et de sécurité sont en profonde mutation et les anciens combattants du CNDD-FDD sont totalement intégrés dans ces nouvelles forces au sein desquelles ils occupent 40 pour cent des effectifs. Cela constitue une garantie substantielle contre d ' éventuelles tentatives de coup de force pour interrompre la poursuite de ce processus et donc la mise en oeuvre des réformes prévues par l ' accord d ' Arusha pour la paix et la réconciliation. Néanmoins les élections ne représentent qu ' un pas, certes important, vers une paix durable.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Burundi

2933. The Regime Theories: Useful Frameworks for Analysing Human Rights Issues?

Author:
Sevilay Z. Aksoy
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
International regimes have come to occupy an increasing space and importance within both politics among nations and the literature on international relations. This is so simply because of the ever-increasing need for fruitful international cooperation in the face of increasing and urgent problems facing the whole humanity. However, the related academic debate is in a state of major dissent regarding the conceptualisation of regimes, including their formation, maintenance and effectiveness. Human rights area is not immune from this state of dissent and confusion, and even more so because of the seeming resistance of human rights issues to international cooperation. This article addresses these issues and does so in three parts. First, I review the major theoretical approaches to the conceptualisation of regimes. Second, I explain the implications of this review for human rights regimes. And finally, I explore the motivations of international actors to cooperate under the dominant and competing regime theories, and examine their relevance to human rights issues.
Topic:
International Relations, Human Rights, International Cooperation, and International Organization

2934. Turkish – Armenian Relations in the Aftermath of the USSR

Author:
Ali Faik Demir
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
Following the collapse of the USSR, Turkey acquired a new opportunity concerning its foreign policy: Caucasus. In this whole region and especially in the southern Caucasus composed of three independent states, Armenia occupied the most critical and the most sensitive issue. Turkey, despite the historical negative legacy, tried to establish a different base for its relations with Armenia, succeeding the dissolution of the Soviet Union. According to this, it is possible to observe positive steps undertaken by the two sides under the presidency of Petrosian, but the Nagorno-Karabakh question became the decisive factor of the bilateral relations during this same period. During the presidency of his successor Kocharian, other than Nagorno-Karabakh problem, Diaspora communities gained influence. This led the so-called “genocide” issue to constitute an important subject of the international agenda in bilateral relations as well as in other international platforms. Despite the Kocharian's hawkish rhetoric in the beginning, which caused the deterioration of the bilateral relations, during the second term of his presidency, a certain détente has been observed. Apart from official relations and negotiations, the Turkish-Armenian Peace Commission, founded in 2001 with the intention to establish a positive, peaceful and free of prejudice platform constitutes an important step.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Genocide
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Caucasus, and Armenia

2935. Turkish-Tajik Relations After the Independence

Author:
Pinar Akçali
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
This article aims to analyze the relations between Turkey and Tajikistan in the aftermath of the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The relations between these two countries remained rather limited in the period of 1991-1994 because Tajikistan was not Turkic, faced negative economic conditions, went through a civil war, and had closer ties with Iran and Russia. Between 1995 and 2003, however, these relations improved as Turkey better realized the fact that Tajikistan was both an inseparable part of Central Asian geography and critical for regional stability. Furthermore, in this period, Tajik Civil War ended with an important political reconciliation. It is concluded that although there has been a relative improvement in Turkish-Tajik relations since Tajikistan's independence, it has not yet reached to a satisfactory level.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, and War
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Central Asia, Turkey, Asia, and Tajikistan

2936. Yemeni President Saleh Comes to Washington

Author:
Simon Henderson and Khairi Abaza
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The November 10 meeting at the White House between U.S. president George W. Bush and Yemeni president Ali Abdullah Saleh will be the third time the two men have met since the September 11 terror attacks on the United States. Yemen is an oft-forgotten close U.S. ally, arguably as crucial to the success of the war on terror as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, or Egypt. The south Arabian country, with its rugged, desert landscape, remains a sanctuary for al-Qaeda operatives. With seacoasts along the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, Yemen dominates the Bab el-Mandab shipping chokepoint, the route by which oil from the Persian Gulf reaches the Suez Canal and hence the European market. (A French supertanker was badly damaged in an al-Qaeda attack off the Yemeni coast in 2002.)
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
Pakistan, United States, Washington, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt

2937. Supreme Leader Khamenei's Responsibility for Iran's Present Situation

Author:
Mohsen Sazegara
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Mohsen Sazegara, recently a visiting fellow at The Washington Institute and now at Yale University, posted on several Persian-language websites (including gooya.com) a long open letter to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Hossein Khamenei. Below are translated extracts from that letter.
Topic:
International Relations, Human Rights, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Washington, and Middle East

2938. Turkey and Europe's Problem with Radical Islam

Author:
Soner Cagaptay, Düden Yegenoglu, and Ekim Alptekin
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Turkey opened accession talks with the European Union (EU) on October 3. In the aftermath of the March 2004 Madrid bombings, the November 2004 murder of film director Theo van Gogh in Amsterdam, and the July 2005 London bombings, all committed by radical Islamists, some people in Europe wonder whether Islam is compatible with European values and, accordingly, whether letting the predominantly Muslim Turkey join the EU is a good idea. Will Turkey's EU accession compound Europe's problem with radical Islam, or is Turkey's version of Islam a panacea for Europe's Islamist problem?
Topic:
International Relations and Religion
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

2939. The New Turkish Economy and EU Accession Talks

Author:
Meral Varis
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Now that negotiations toward full Turkish membership in the European Union (EU) have begun, what are the prospects for the Turkish economy? In particular, could Turkey attract significant global investment and take off economically as happened in Spain, Portugal, and Greece in the 1980s and Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic in the 1990s when those countries negotiated for EU accession?
Topic:
International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Greece, Poland, Hungary, Spain, and Portugal

2940. Accounting for Terror: Debunking the Paradigm of Inexpensive Terrorism

Author:
Joshua Prober
Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
An increasingly accepted argument holds that terrorism has become a cheap enterprise. Louise Richardson, executive dean of the Radcliff Institute for Advanced Study at Harvard University, made just that case while testifying before the Senate Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs in 2003. "The crucial point to bear in mind about terrorism, of course, is that it is cheap," Richardson said. She went on to argue that although the September 11 attacks cost $500,000, "It takes a great deal less to buy some fertilizer, rent a truck, and use them to bring down a building." If terrorism is cheap, as Richardson contends, then logic follows that financial counterterrorism measures are largely powerless to prevent terrorist attacks.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Education, and Terrorism

2941. Creating Effective International Pressure for Human Rights in Iran

Author:
Khairi Abaza and Mark Nakhla
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 2, the UN General Assembly's Third Committee is due to consider a Canadian resolution condemning Iran for human rights violations. A similar resolution was approved by the General Assembly in 2004 by a vote of 71-54 with fifty-five abstentions. Iran's human rights violations have recently worsened, and the Iranian government is becoming less concerned about international complaints on the matter.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Iran, Canada, and North Africa

2942. The Copts and Their Political Implications in Egypt

Author:
Khairi Abaza and Mark Nakhla
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the third week of October, Egypt saw some of its most significant sectarian clashes in the last five years. Violence broke out as police forces protected a church in the Mediterranean port city of Alexandria against Muslims protesting a play that was staged inside the church and that they considered offensive to Islam. Sporadic tensions are an expression of Egypt's general political malaise.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
North Africa and Egypt

2943. Syria's Response to the Mehlis Report

Author:
Robert Rabil
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The long-awaited report by the international commission investigating the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri was released on October 21. Overseen by UN chief investigator Detlev Mehlis, the report concluded, "Given the infiltration of Lebanese institutions and society by the Syrian and Lebanese intelligence services working in tandem, it would be difficult to envisage a scenario whereby such a complex assassination plot could have been carried out without their knowledge." The dynamics engendered by the report, coupled with the political atmosphere of gloom pervading Syria, confront the Bashar al-Asad regime with a bitter choice: accept international demands or go down the self-destructive path of continuing with its old political mindset and flawed one party rule.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, and Syria

2944. Saudi Arabia's Debate on Women Driving Masks a Deeper Divide

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
During the last several months, the question of whether women in Saudi Arabia should be allowed to drive has become a lively topic of debate within the kingdom. Support for the issue has come from the newly enthroned King Abdullah; the most prominent opponent is the long-serving interior minister, Prince Nayef. The men are viewed as political rivals frequently at odds over a range of policies. Increasingly, women driving seems a metaphor for the series of security, economic, and educational challenges facing the kingdom—and therefore a tempting policy opportunity for the United States.
Topic:
International Relations, Gender Issues, Government, Islam, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
United States, Arabia, and Saudi Arabia

2945. A Bedouin on a Camel? Saudi Foreign Policy and the Insurgency in Iraq

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Iraq's interior minister, Bayan Jabr, lashed out at Saudi diplomacy while speaking to journalists in Amman on October 2. Referring to Prince Saud al-Faisal, the Saudi foreign minister, Jabr said Iraq would not be lectured by "some Bedouin riding a camel." Broadening his remarks to the Saudi ruling family, the House of Saud, the Iraqi minister said, "There are regimes that are dictatorships; they have one god, he is the king, he is god of heaven and earth, and he rules as he likes. A whole country is named after a family."
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, United Nations, and War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Washington, and Middle East

2946. The Sunni Arab Insurgency: A Spent or Rising Force?

Author:
Michael Eisenstadt
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Warnings by Sunni politicians of even greater violence if Sunni Arab concerns are not addressed in the draft Iraqi constitution raise the question: could the insurgency get worse? The answer can be found by examining the insurgency's demographic dimension.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, Religion, and United Nations
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

2947. The Black Sea Basin: A New Axis in Global Maritime Security

Author:
Orhan Babaoglu
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The Black Sea Naval Cooperation Task Group (BLACKSEAFOR), a regional maritime security initiative started by Turkey in 2001, was activated August 14-27. With world attention devoted to Iraq and the Middle East, important developments in the nearby Black Sea region involving energy politics, frozen conflicts, and new regional security initiatives have gone mostly unnoticed. The Black Sea is a stable but complex basin with vast economic resources and strategic importance as a medium for energy transportation. Is the Black Sea a bridge or a barrier between United States and Turkey? Does the issue of Black Sea security provide an opportunity to mend deteriorated relations or a new source of friction?
Topic:
International Relations, Security, NATO, and Cold War
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Iraq, Turkey, and Middle East

2948. The Military Coup in Mauritania: Domestic and International Implications

Author:
Daniel Zisenwine
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The August 3 bloodless military coup in Mauritania that removed president Maaouiya Ould Taya from power took place in one of the world's most impoverished nations, situated on Africa's northwest coast between Arab North Africa and black sub-Saharan Africa. The coup had all the familiar trappings of an African military overthrow of a corrupt and detested civilian regime. Mauritania has supported the American-led war on terror and actively supports Washington's counterterrorist and training operations in the trans-Sahara region. It is also among only three Arab League members (along with Egypt and Jordan) that maintain full diplomatic relations with Israel. As Mauritania's new leaders seek to stabilize their authority, they are likely to come under considerable pressure from local opposition forces opposed to existing pro-American policies and its links with Israel.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Government, Terrorism, and War
Political Geography:
Africa, Washington, and North Africa

2949. Presidential Election Rules in Egypt: Multiple Problems

Author:
Khairi Abaza
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
August 17 is the official start of the campaign for Egypt's first multicandidate presidential election; voting is scheduled for on September 7. President Hosni Mubarak, who has held office for twenty-four years, has been elected without opposition four times. In the upcoming election, only party leaders can be candidates; no independent candidates are allowed. Authoritarian rule and emergency laws have limited opposition parties' ability to interact with the public and atrophied their presence in the street. If Egypt's election is free and fair, it will be despite, not because of, the electoral procedures established by the Mubarak regime.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Government
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

2950. Sharm al-Shaykh Bombings: The Egyptian Context

Author:
Khairi Abaza
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The July 23 bombings at Sharm al-Shaykh offered a harsh reminder that Egypt remains vulnerable to Islamists who see terrorism as their only viable means of affecting political change. The attacks, which left at least sixty-four dead and more than two hundred injured, were the deadliest to be carried out by Islamist extremists in the last two decades. And the participation of Sinai Bedouin youths in the attacks points to a dangerous development in terrorist activities in the region.
Topic:
International Relations, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Africa and Egypt

2951. Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq: A Progress Report

Author:
Jeffrey White, Jack Keane, and Francis West
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Daily images of carnage from Iraq and uncertainty over how to measure coalition progress continue to stoke debate in the United States. How does one assess the status of the insurgency? How are the efforts to recruit and train Iraq's security forces proceeding? What are America's options in Iraq?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Development
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Middle East, Vietnam, and Syria

2952. Anatolian Eagle Air Warfare Training: A Valuable Turkish Contribution to NATO, the United States, and the World

Author:
Haluk Sahar
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Anatolian Eagle is one of the largest and most complex joint air force exercises in the world, paralleled only by Red Flag, held periodically at Nevada's Nellis Air Force Base, and the annual Maple Flag exercise in Canada. The Turkish Air Force (TUAF) is now preparing for the multinational leg of the next Anatolian Eagle, scheduled to take place September 12-23. Anatolian Eagle has obvious public relations value for Turkey and its air force as hosts of the event. Moreover, as an exercise mimicking realistic aerial war minutes away from the U.S. forces, it also serves as an important component of U.S.-Turkish military cooperation.
Topic:
International Relations and NATO
Political Geography:
United States, Turkey, and Middle East

2953. The U.S.-Turkish Relationship beyond Iraq: Common Values, Common Agenda

Author:
R. Nicholas Burns
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 18, 2005, Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs R. Nicholas Burns addressed The Washington Institute's Seventh Turgut Ozal Memorial Lecture. Undersecretary Burns's prepared remarks were delivered by Assistant Secretary of State for European Affairs Daniel Fried. The following are excerpts from the speech followed by a summary of the subsequent question-and-answer session. "Today, we have all gathered to honor Turgut Ozal, a strong leader with a clear vision of Turkey's future. Ozal — who we as Americans are proud to call a close friend — sought tirelessly to advance Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's legacy, his dream of a modern, democratic Turkey anchored in the West....
Topic:
International Relations, NATO, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Eastern Europe

2954. The New Lebanon: Democratic Reform and State Sponsorship

Author:
Matthew Levitt
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 19, Lebanon's incoming prime minister, Fuad Siniora, announced the formation of a new Lebanese cabinet, a move praised in Washington as another step toward democratic reform. At the same time, the State Department warned that it would not be able to maintain contact with newly appointed Minister of Energy and Water Muhammad Fneish, who is a member of Hizballah. Beyond the fact that U.S. officials are prohibited by law from dealing with members of officially designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations like Hizballah, Fneish's appointment raises the larger question of how to deal with the extensive presence of active terrorist groups in a Lebanon no longer dominated by Syria.
Topic:
International Relations, Democratization, and Development
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Lebanon, and Syria

2955. The Three-Way Game: Iran, Iraq, and the United States

Author:
Michael Knights
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The July 16–18 visit to Tehran by Iraqi prime minister Ibrahim Jafari and ten other members of his council of ministers has been hailed by some as the beginning of a new era in Iran-Iraq relations. In fact, the pattern of near-term relations was set during Iraqi defense minister Saadoun al-Dulaimi's preparatory visit to Iran on July 5–7. At a joint press conference on July 7 with his Iranian counterpart, Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, the Iraqi official fell victim to the oldest trick in the Iranian diplomatic playbook. Speaking well beyond what had been agreed by the two sides, Shamkhani announced “wide defense cooperation” and alluded to the imminent conclusion of a defense pact between the two countries (as Iran has done in the past with Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Saudi Arabia). Al-Dulaimi was likewise forced to clarify the limited nature of the discussions while also taking pains to state, “Iraq will not be a source of insecurity and instability for any of its neighbors. Nobody can use [Iraqi territory] to attack its neighbors.” The message to both Tehran and Washington was clear: the three-way game between the governments of Iran, Iraq, and the United States has begun again. With Iraq caught in the middle, Baghdad intends to play an increasingly autonomous role as the game unfolds.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Oil
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Washington, and Middle East

2956. Freezing U.S. Assets of Syrian Officials

Author:
Matthew Levitt and Jamie Chosak
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On July 11, al-Seyassah, an independent Kuwaiti newspaper, reported that Syrian president Bashar al-Asad froze the assets of his country's minister of interior affairs, Ghazi Kanaan. If so, that is surely a reaction to Kanaan's June 30 designation—along with Chief of Syrian Military Intelligence for Lebanon Rustum Ghazali—by the U.S. Treasury Department as a Specially Designated National (SDN) under Executive Order (EO) 13338. The two were cited for directing “Syria's military and security presence in Lebanon and/or contributing to Syria's support for terrorism.”
Topic:
International Relations and Economics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Kuwait, and Syria

2957. The Gleneagles G8 Summit: Middle Eastern Issues on the Agenda

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Beginning on July 6, British prime minister Tony Blair will host the G8 summit in Gleneagles, a hotel and golf course in Scotland. Africa and climate change are the two main topics on the agenda, but counterterrorism, proliferation, and political reform in the Middle East are scheduled to be discussed as well. The annual G8 summit has become the sole forum in which the leaders of the seven top industrialized countries (Britain, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan and the United States) and Russia meet to discuss and decide on courses of action. Diplomatic grandstanding and expected antiglobalization demonstrations aside, the summit is an opportunity to set the international political and bureaucratic agenda for months ahead.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, Oil, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Britain, Africa, Russia, United States, Japan, United Kingdom, Middle East, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, and Scotland

2958. European Recalcitrance toward Turkey: An Agenda for U.S.-Turkish Ties in Summer 2005

Author:
Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Today, the European Commission, the executive arm of the European Union (EU), issued its Framework for Negotiations with Turkey, a document outlining a strategy for accession talks with Ankara. In December 2004, the EU indicated that Ankara had satisfied its membership criteria “sufficiently enough” to begin talks on October 3, 2005. Yet, the Framework states that the negotiations with Turkey will be “an open-ended process, the outcome of which cannot be guaranteed”—this despite the fact that all previous accession talks with candidate countries resulted in membership offers. With Europe having difficulty keeping its promises to Turkey and, accordingly, Turkish euphoria for the EU winding down, Washington stands at a strategic juncture in its relationship with Ankara.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
United States, Europe, Washington, Turkey, and Eastern Europe

2959. German and French Leaders' Views on Turkey's EU Membership

Author:
Düden Yegenoglu and Nuray Nazil Inal
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In December 2004, the European Union (EU) invited Turkey to begin accession talks for membership in October 2005, stating that Ankara had met its accession rules “sufficiently enough” to do so. On June 29, the European Commission is expected to ratify the first draft of a technical framework that lays down procedures for the future negotiations. Despite this decision, objections to Turkish membership have increased within the EU. Following is a sampling of views among political leaders in Germany and France, two countries regarded as the motor of the EU.
Topic:
International Relations
Political Geography:
Turkey, Eastern Europe, France, and Germany

2960. Netanyahu's Victory: Major Challenges for the Likud Party

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Former Israeli prime minister and recently resigned finance minister Benjamin Netanyahu won the Likud leadership primary on December 19, beating the foreign minister, Silvan Shalom, by a margin of 45 percent to 33 percent. Netanyahu returns to the leadership of Likud, which he vacated after his loss in the 1999 election. Netanyahu's victory comes a day after Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon suffered what his doctors called a mild stroke; he was released from the hospital within forty-eight hours. At seventy-seven, Sharon already shares the record for the oldest Israeli prime minister; David Ben-Gurion was seventy-seven when he resigned in 1963. Sharon turns seventy-eight in February.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, and Politics
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

2961. Opening Gaza to the Wider World: The Israeli-Palestinian Agreement on Movement and Access

Publication Date:
11-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On November 25, Palestinians celebrated the opening of their first self-governed external passage, the Rafah border crossing that separates the Gaza Strip from Egypt. Following months of negotiations, on November 15 Israel and the Palestinian Authority (PA) reached the Agreement on Movement and Access, governing the flow of people and goods into and from the Gaza Strip. Isreal's disengagement from the whole of Gaza, including the border with Egypt, made an accord on border crossings necessary. The agreement was achieved through extensive mediation by Quartet's special envoy, James Wolfensohn, and at the final stage through the unprecedented involvement of U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice. The agreement is an attempt to balance Israeli security concerns with Palestinian political, humanitarian, and economic concerns.
Topic:
International Relations and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Palestine, and Egypt

2962. Political Participation and Palestinian Legislative Elections

Author:
Ben Fishman and Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
In the leadup to Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas's October 20 visit to Washington, the Bush administration urged the Palestinian Authority (PA) to tighten rules enacted in 1995 and change the law governing upcoming Palestinian legislative elections to make it clear that candidates, even those backed by Hamas or other militant groups, could not incite violence or keep ties with militias. However, the PA seems unlikely to adopt this approach, in part because the administration reportedly backed away from its position. What alternative strategies exist for limiting Hamas's political influence?
Topic:
International Relations and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, and Palestine

2963. Abbas's Missed Opportunities in Washington

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas returned to Ramallah from Washington last week having missed a key opportunity to spur President George W. Bush to reengage in the Roadmap. Instead, the October 20 joint press conference at the White House concluded with Bush acknowledging that his presidency may not witness the creation of a Palestinian state by 2008. His administration, Bush said, might merely “lay that foundation so that the process becomes irreversible.” The same administration that two years ago endorsed the Quartet's Roadmap to Israeli-Palestinian peace based upon a detailed schedule of commitments now expresses hesitancy on committing to any “timetable” for the creation of a Palestinian state. Bush administration policy has always had a performance-based rather than a time-based approach, but now it is not putting down any time markers.
Topic:
International Relations and Government
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

2964. A New Reality on the Egypt-Gaza Border (Part II): Analysis of the New Israel-Egypt Agreement

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The September 1 Egypt-Israel agreement regarding the deployment of new Egyptian forces along the Egyptian border with Gaza (the Agreed Arrangements) represents a shared Israeli-Egyptian interest in preventing the militarization and radicalization of Gaza following Israeli disengagement. For the first time, Israel is relinquishing its control over part of the external perimeter of the Palestinian areas, handing responsibility to a third party. Success or failure will bear important consequences for both Israeli-Egyptian and Israeli-Palestinian relations.
Topic:
International Relations, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa, Israel, Gaza, and Egypt

2965. Travel Advisory: Military Personnel and British Courts

Author:
Simon Henderson
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 11, retired Israeli maj. gen. Doron Almog declined to disembark from an arriving Israel El Al airliner at London's Heathrow airport and flew back to Israel, thereby avoiding British police waiting with a warrant for his arrest. The warrant, instigated in part by pro-Palestinian groups, alleged that Almog had committed war crimes while head of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Southern Command operating in the Gaza Strip in 2002. The airport incident has serious implications, the full extent of which will only become clear in time, for visitors to Britain from Israel and possibly America (due to U.S. involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq). Israelis, Americans, and, indeed, British citizens could be vulnerable when visiting other countries as well. London's role in the Middle East peace process could also be constrained.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United Kingdom, America, Europe, Middle East, London, and Palestine

2966. A New Reality on the Egypt-Gaza Border (Part I): Contents of the New Israel-Egypt Agreement

Author:
Brooke Neuman
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 1, 2005, following lengthy negotiations, Egypt and Israel signed the Agreed Arrangements Regarding the Deployment of a Designated Force of Border Guards along the Border in the Rafah Area (the Agreed Arrangements). This agreement was designed to enable Israel to evacuate the Philadelphia corridor, an eight-mile (thirteen-kilometer) military zone along the Gaza-Egypt border, through the deployment of Egyptian border patrol forces to the Egyptian side of the border in order to prevent smuggling into Gaza. In eighty-three clauses, the agreement describes the mission, weaponry, infrastructure, and obligations of the parties.
Topic:
International Relations, Peace Studies, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:
Africa, Israel, Gaza, and Egypt

2967. Empowering Mahmoud Abbas after Disengagement

Author:
Mohammed Yaghi
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Empowering Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas and fellow moderates at this critical time may be in the interest of everyone who favors a return to peace negotiations, but Abbas himself faces immense challenges to his authority that make him unlikely to be able to implement significant changes in the four months left before Palestinian legislative elections in January. The weakened position Abbas inherited included limited control over security forces, paralyzing rivalries within the Fatah movement that limit any support for difficult decisions, and an increasingly assertive Hamas that constantly flaunts its ability to act independently. None of these sources of Abbas's weakness is likely to change significantly in the coming months. And, despite Abbas's intentions to establish law and order and begin economic revitalization in Gaza as articulated in a speech delivered on September 13, the chaos exhibited along the border at Rafah and in the old Israeli settlements immediately after the Israeli withdrawal demonstrates just how difficult his task will be.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

2968. A Wind in Hamas's Sails: Palestinian Militants Gather Post-Disengagement Momentum

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On September 12, the last departing Israeli forces closed the gates of Gaza behind them, followed by a salvo of Palestinian rockets aimed at southern Israel. In the unsettled aftermath of the Israeli disengagement from Gaza and parts of the northern West Bank, only one camp seems clearly to know where it is heading -- the militant Palestinian Islamist groups, led by Hamas. These groups now profess their intention to continue their violent campaign in and from the West Bank. Their strategy, using armed and political capabilities, poses a serious challenge to both Palestinian and Israeli leaderships and may undermine prospects of improved Israeli-Palestinian relations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Ethnic Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2969. Toward a Quartet Position on Hamas: European Rules on Banning Political Parties

Author:
David Makovsky and Elizabeth Young
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
A key issue in the runup to January's Palestinian parliamentary elections is whether the radical Islamist party Hamas will be allowed to participate and under what conditions. Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and foreign minister Silvan Shalom have insisted that the group disarm, disavow terror, and end its call for Israel's destruction before it is permitted to run in elections. Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas has favored an unconditional acceptance of Hamas's electoral participation, believing that it could coopt Hamas within the Palestinian political fold. However, he said in a Washington Post interview published on September 11, 2005, "A political party plus a militia is unacceptable," but he did not elaborate specific plans that would prevent Hamas from participating in elections as both party and militia.
Topic:
International Relations, Religion, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Europe, Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

2970. Undermining Hamas and Empowering Moderates by Filling the Humanitarian Void

Author:
Matthew Levitt and Jamie Chosak
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Now that Israel has disengaged from the Gaza Strip and four settlements from the northern West Bank, the international community has a clear interest in doing all it can to see that the post-withdrawal security situation remains stable so that the exit from Gaza leads to further steps along the path laid out in the Quartet's Roadmap to Middle East peace. As former World Bank leader James Wolfensohn, now Washington's special envoy for disengagement, lobbies world leaders to offer significant support for Palestinian development projects, a parallel effort is necessary to create new, transparent public and private social-service organizations unaffiliated with Hamas or other groups engaged in terrorism or political violence.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Humanitarian Aid, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2971. Engaging Israel: The Significance of the Istanbul Meeting between Israel and Pakistan

Author:
Simon Henderson and Soner Cagaptay
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The September 1 meeting in the Turkish city of Istanbul between Israeli foreign minister Silvan Shalom and his Pakistani counterpart, Khurshid Kasuri, was historic. There have been no public official contacts between the two nations since Pakistan was founded in 1947 as a home for Muslims in the Indian subcontinent just a few months before Israel, the Jewish national home, achieved statehood in 1948. The meeting represents a major breakthrough in Jerusalem's efforts to overcome diplomatic isolation and also indicates that Turkey is determined to play a more active role than previously thought.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Turkey, Middle East, and Israel

2972. Post-Gaza Crises for Religious Zionism in Israel

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Israeli disengagement from Gaza and the northern West Bank settlements has left in its wake three important crises for the religious Zionist movement that spearheaded settlements in Israel. These crises involve the settlers' future relationships with the Israeli public, the Israeli state, and the political secular right. For settlers, these three relationships are now colored by a sense of betrayal, raising the question of whether disengagement will radicalize the ideological settlers.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

2973. Sharon, Netanyahu, Disengagement, and Likud Leadership

Author:
David Makovsky
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
An immediate consequence of Israel's disengagement from Gaza was Benjamin Netanyahu's August 7 resignation as finance minister, making a Likud Party leadership challenge between him and Ariel Sharon virtually inevitable. What will be the impact of such a challenge on Sharon's policy in the postdisengagement period? And how would a Netanyahu challenge affect the chances of a split within the Likud—and perhaps a broader realignment of Israeli politics?
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Peace Studies
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

2974. On the Verge of Gaza Disengagement

Author:
David Makovsky, Dennis Ross, and Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On August 4, 2005, Dennis Ross, Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog, and David Makovsky addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. Ambassador Ross, the Institute's counselor and Ziegler Distinguished Fellow and former U.S. Middle East peace envoy, has just returned from a month in the region. General Herzog of the Israel Defense Force is a visiting military fellow at The Washington Institute. Formerly the senior military aide to the minister of defense, he was also an Israeli peace negotiator. Mr. Makovsky, senior fellow and the director of the Project on the Middle East Peace Process at The Washington Institute, is author of the Institute monograph Engagement through Disengagement: Gaza and the Potential for Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking. The following is a rapporteur's summary of their remarks.
Topic:
International Relations, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
United States, Washington, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2975. Encouraging a Tougher PA Response to the Hamas Challenge

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice's July 22-24 visit to the Israeli-Palestinian scene came amid critical domestic challenges to the Palestinian leadership against the backdrop of imminent Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip and parts of the northern West Bank, scheduled to begin August 15. In an unprecedented step, Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas recently demonstrated the will to enforce his policy of nonviolence on Hamas and curb the group's efforts to become an alternative armed authority. Given his precarious vacillation between appeasement and enforcement, the international community should encourage Abbas to continue down the latter path and provide him with practical support toward that end.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Terrorism
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2976. Gaza Disengagement: The U.S. Role in Ensuring Success on the Ground

Author:
Dennis Ross
Publication Date:
07-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
I have spent the past month in Jerusalem, meeting with Israelis and Palestinians here, in Ramallah, and in Gaza City. In my years of dealing with both sides, I cannot recall a time when emotion in general, and frustration in particular, have so clearly shaped their outlook. Given the death of Yasser Arafat, the emergence of Mahmoud Abbas, and Ariel Sharon's decision to disengage from Gaza, this should be a time of hope and opportunity. Instead, there is less a sense of possibility than of foreboding. It may not yet be too late to use the withdrawal as a platform on which to build a different future. Yet, much of what could have been done to prepare the ground for disengagement has not been done—and that may explain the unease that pervades both sides.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Religion
Political Geography:
United States, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2977. The Future of the Jewish Settler Movement, Post-Disengagement

Author:
Aviezer Ravitsky
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
On June 24, 2005, Aviezer Ravitsky, a professor at Hebrew University of Jerusalem and an expert on religious Zionism, addressed The Washington Institute's Special Policy Forum. The following is a rapporteur's summary of his remarks. The impending Israeli disengagement from the Gaza Strip and four settlements in the northern West Bank threatens the ideological foundations of many settlers. This is particularly true for religious settlers, most of whom view Israeli habitation of the West Bank as the fulfillment of a biblical mandate initiated by the Hebrew patriarchs. The fact that Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, a prime architect of the settlement movement during his tenure as housing minister in the late 1970s, unilaterally proposed the disengagement epitomizes what many settlers see as their abandonment by the political establishment. They fear that Israel will eventually withdraw from most, if not all, of the West Bank. That prospect threatens to undermine the cause of the national-religious camp in Israel, which has championed the settlement movement above all else since Israel assumed control over the territories in 1967.
Topic:
International Relations, Politics, and Religion
Political Geography:
Washington, Middle East, Israel, and Gaza

2978. Deteriorating Security May Short-Circuit Israeli-Palestinian Opportunities

Author:
Michael Herzog
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Abstract:
The June 21 meeting between Israeli prime minister Ariel Sharon and Palestinian Authority (PA) president Mahmoud Abbas highlighted the widening expectations gap between the two parties. Less than two months before Israel commences its pullout from the Gaza Strip and parts of the northern West Bank, the security situation is worsening, while the PA appears largely unprepared to assume effective security control over these areas. Without an urgent predisengagement "crash program" to improve security, the opportunity afforded by Yasser Arafat's departure from the scene and Israel's departure from Gaza will be lost.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Religion
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Gaza

2979. The Poverty Macroeconomic Policy Nexus: Some Short-run Analytics

Author:
George Mavrotas and S. Mansoob Murshed
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The present paper utilises a short-run theoretical macroeconomic model of a small open economy to look at the impact of macroeconomic policies and financial deepening upon poverty through sectoral changes. This is because an expansion in certain sectors may cause greater poverty reduction. The model involves a non-traded and a traded sector on the formal side of the economy. The former is more capital intensive and the latter more unskilled labour intensive. Increased employment in the traded sector is more pro-poor compared to a similar rise in the non-traded sector as the former draws workers out of poverty in the informal sector. The model in our paper analyses short-run effects of devaluation, a rise in the money supply induced by financial deepening, and taxation to discourage non-traded goods consumption. Financial deepening can induce greater output and reduce poverty. Other results are mixed and taxonomic. We also attempt to differentiate between the stylised experiences of East Asia and Latin America. East Asian economies have relied more heavily on labour-intensive manufactured exports, whereas Latin America has had a relatively greater share of capital intensive and natural resource based exports. In recent decades countries in these two regions have had differing experiences in poverty reduction, with poverty arguably declining more in East Asia.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Poverty
Political Geography:
East Asia and Latin America

2980. Education, Financial Institutions, Inflation and Growth

Author:
Iftekhar Hasan, Leonardo Becchetti, and George Mavrotas
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Our paper investigates the unexplored impact of education on inflation and of this relationship on economic growth. By using a sample of 102 countries observed on non-overlapping five-year data spells over the period 1963-2001, we find that average schooling years of the working population have a significant negative impact on inflation rates after controlling for the effects of the stance of domestic monetary policy. We also show that the negative impact of inflation on growth in conditional convergence estimates is significantly increased when the former is instrumented by educational variables. Our findings outline a third potential role of human capital on conditional convergence. They show that education is not only a production factor or a variable which may reduce demographic pressures, but also an important antidote against inflationary pressures which, in turn, negatively affect economic growth and conditional convergence. We interpret our findings by identifying three potential rationales for the education-inflation nexus: (i) education raises consumers' awareness of their power in contrasting producers' inflationary pressures; (ii) more educated individuals have lower inflationary expectations when they are also wealthier and their consumption bundle is relatively less (more) intensive in inferior (superior) goods with higher (lower) inflation potential; (iii) more (less) educated and wealthier (less wealthy) individuals tend to be net creditors (debtors) in their maturity, thereby contributing to increase (reduce) the power of anti-inflationary lobbies.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, Economics, and Education

2981. The Tax Reform Experience of Kenya

Author:
Stephen Njuguna Karingi and Bernadette Wanjal
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
In evaluating tax reform in the developing countries, one first needs to determine what is the unique role of the tax system in each particular country. One of the key reasons for undertaking tax reforms in Kenya was to ad dress issues of in equality and to create a sustainable tax system that could generate adequate revenue to finance public expenditures. In this respect, the tax modernization programme introduced in the country was to achieve a tax system that was sustainable in the face of changing conditions domestically and internationally. Policy was shifted towards greater reliance on indirect taxes as opposed to direct taxes. Consumption taxes were seen to be more favourable to investments and hence growth. Trade taxes, instead of being used for protection or revenue-maximization purposes, were viewed more as instruments to foster export-led industrialization. Trade taxes were therefore used to create a competitive exports sector rather than protect the import-competing manufacturing sector, as had been done in the past.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Kenya and Africa

2982. Tax Reforms in Ghana

Author:
Peter Quartey and Robert Darko Osei
Publication Date:
12-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Ghana's tax reforms constitute the major policy instrument needed to accelerate growth and poverty reduction. Over the past two decades, the government has consistently spent more revenue than it is able to generate and the gap is often financed with foreign aid which has perpetuated the country's aid dependency. Two options can be explored to reduce the gap between government revenue and expenditure; generate more revenue or reduce government expenditure. Although the latter sounds reasonable, the government needs to spend more on key sectors like education, health and infrastructure if the country is to significantly reduce poverty. The critical issue has been how to generate the needed resources domestically, using tax instruments that are least harmful to the poor. This will obviously involve reforming the tax system to ensure efficiency by widening the tax net without necessarily increasing the tax rate. This paper provides an assessment of the changing structure of the tax system in Ghana over the last two decades and suggests ways to improve tax administration in the country.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

2983. Aid and Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: Accounting for Transmission Mechanisms

Author:
Oliver Morrissey, Karuna Gomanee, and Sourafel Girma
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper is a contribution to the literature on aid and growth. Despite an extensive empirical literature in this area, existing studies have not addressed directly the mechanisms via which aid should affect growth. We identify investment as the most significant transmission mechanism, and also consider effects through financing imports and government consumption spending. With the use of residual generated regressors, we achieve a measure of the total effect of aid on growth, accounting for the effect via investment. Pooled panel results for a sample of 25 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 1970 to 1997 point to a significant positive effect of foreign aid on growth, ceteris paribus. On average, each one percentage point increase in the aid/GNP ratio contributes one-quarter of one percentage point to the growth rate. Africa's poor growth record should not therefore be attributed to aid ineffectiveness.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa

2984. Innovative Ways of Making Aid Effective in Ghana: Tied Aid versus Direct Budgetary Support

Author:
Peter Quartey
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
There has been significant amount of aid inflow s to developing countries including Ghana, but these have been very volatile. Aid flows have been associated with low domestic resource mobilization and have reduced Ghana to a country heavily dependent on aid. The amount of official development assistance (ODA) inflow s has fallen in recent years and has become unpredictable. It is general knowledge that aid has not yielded the desired benefit. In an attempt to improve aid effectiveness donors have used tie d aid not just to promote commercial interests but also to target aid to particular projects that have direct links with poverty. However, this has not yielded the maximum benefits required. Recently, the government of Ghana and its development partners agreed on an aid package dubbed the multi-donor budgetary support (MDBS), which would ensure continuous flow of aid to finance the government's poverty related expenditures.
Topic:
International Relations, Development, and Economics
Political Geography:
Africa and Ghana

2985. It Works; It Doesn't; It Can, But That Depends...: 50 Years of Controversy over the Macroeconomic Impact of Development Aid

Author:
Mark McGillivray, Simon Feeny, Robert Lensink, and Niels Hermes
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper surveys 50 years of empirical research on the macroeconomic impact of aid, looking mainly at studies examining the link between aid and growth. It argues that studies dating until the late 1990s produced either contradictory or inconclusive results. Aid either worked, or it didn't, according to this research. The paper then highlights a major shift in the literature that coincided with the release of the World Bank's Assessing Aid: What Works, What Doesn't and Why. Practically all research published since that report agrees with its general finding that aid works, to the extent that in its absence growth would be lower. One controversy may therefore have been settled. Yet, we show, the report has set-off an intense de bate over the context in which aid works. That debate centres on whether the effectiveness of these inflows depends on the policy regime of recipient countries. Some possible avenues through which the heat might be taken out of this debate are considered.
Topic:
International Relations, Debt, Development, and Economics

2986. Constitution Writing and Conflict Resolution

Author:
Jennifer Widner
Publication Date:
08-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Over 1975-2003 nearly 200 new constitutions were drawn up in countries at risk of conflict, as part of peace processes and the adoption of multiparty political systems. The process of writing constitutions is considered to be very important to the chances of sustaining peace, and The Commonwealth and the US Institute for Peace have developed good practice guidelines in this area. These emphasize consultation, openness to diverse points of view and representative ratification procedures. But assessing the impact of constitution-writing processes on violence is methodologically difficult, since there are many channels of influence in the relationship. This paper reports on preliminary findings from an ongoing research project into the effects of processes in constitution-writing. Regression analysis is used to control for important contextual features such as differences in income levels and ethnic diversity across countries. A key finding is that differences in the degree of participation in the drafting of constitutions has no major effect on post-ratification levels of violence in some parts of the world, such as Europe, but does make a difference in Africa, the Americas, and the Pacific together.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, Peace Studies, and Politics
Political Geography:
Africa, United States, America, and Europe

2987. Channels and Policy Debate in the Globalization-Inequality-Poverty Nexus

Author:
Erik Thorbecke and Machiko Nissanke
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The paper offers a critical literature review of the debate surrounding the globalization-poverty nexus, focusing on channels and linkages through which globalization affects the poor. After introducing four different concepts used to measure trends in world income inequality, it examines first the 'growth' conduit through which globalization affects poverty. Treating inequality as the explicit filter between growth and poverty reduction, the causal chain of openness-growth-inequality-poverty is scrutinized, link by link. The paper then moves on to examine other channels in the globalization-poverty nexus that operate through changes in relative factor and good prices, factor movements, the nature of technological change and diffusion, the impact of globalization on volatility and vulnerability, the worldwide flow of information, global disinflation, and institutions, respectively. The paper concludes with a discussion of strategic policy issues within the context of the globalization debate.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Globalization, and Poverty

2988. The Volatility of Aid

Author:
George Mavrotas and David Fielding
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Issues related to the volatility of aid flows are now becoming crucial in view of their relevance to the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals. The paper examines aid volatility using data for 66 aid recipients over the period 1973-2002. We improve upon earlier work in this important area by disaggregating total aid inflows into sector and programme aid. In this way we avoid focussing on a single aggregate, unlike most previous studies on aid volatility. We also adopt a different methodology to capture aid volatility. The institutional quality of the aid recipient affects the stability of sector aid but not that of programme assistance. Moreover, more open economies, which tend to be smaller and richer, ceteris paribus, are associated with more volatile sector aid flows.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, International Cooperation, and Poverty

2989. Decent Work and the Informal Economy

Author:
Anne Trebilcock
Publication Date:
04-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
The ILO was founded for social justice, a mandate expressed today in terms of decent work as a global goal, for all who work, whether in formal or informal contexts. In June 2002, the delegates to the International Labour Conference from governments, workers' and employers' organizations adopted a resolution incorporating conclusions on decent work and the informal economy. The four components of decent work – opportunities for employment and income, respect for rights at work, social protection and stronger social dialogue – form the backbone of the ILO's approach to the informal economy. These elements can also be seen through a development lens, and necessarily feature a strong gender dimension. To make the action foreseen by the ILC conclusions more easily operational in a cross-disciplinary way, the issues they address can be cast in terms of macro policy, governance, enhancement of productivity, markets and employment, social protection/addressing vulnerabilities, and representation and voice. All play key roles in poverty reduction. Moreover, recognizing the importance of measuring progress towards decent work, developments in relation to indicators are briefly described. This paper includes annexes reproducing the ILC conclusions along with two relevant resolutions adopted by the International Conference of Labour Statisticians and a list of ILO websites that address various aspects of decent work and the informal economy.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil Society, Economics, and Government

2990. From Local to Global and Informal to Formal: Entering Mainstream Markets

Author:
Reema Nanavaty
Publication Date:
02-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This is a brief sketch of the Self Employed Women's Association's (SEWA) three-decade-long journey from the local to global and informal to formal sector in search of finding work and income for now 720,000 women workers. Though SEWA remains a local and an informal economy workers' organization, its aim has always been to mainstream its issues, hopes, and achievements.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance

2991. Unlocking Public Entrepreneurship and Public Economies

Author:
Elinor Ostrom
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
Unlocking human potential requires a rich network of institutional arrangements in both private and public spheres. Opening the private sphere to entrepreneurship and complex market organization is well understood as a key to increasing the level and quality of private goods available to consumers. Opening the public sphere to entrepreneurship and innovation at local, regional, and international levels is also a key to increasing the level and quality of public goods – e.g., peace, safety, and health – available to citizens. This paper reviews studies of urban service delivery that have repeatedly found communities of individuals who have self-organized to provide and co-produce surprisingly good local services. In addition to unlocking individual freedom, we need to unlock the public sector from rigid, top-down, hierarchical organization.
Topic:
International Relations, Economics, Emerging Markets, and International Trade and Finance

2992. "Center-periphery" Relations in the Study of International Relations: Where is Turkey?

Author:
Pınar Bilgin
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:
"Standard" concepts and theories of International Relations have, over the years, proven "increasingly irrelevant" in accounting for the "realities" of the developing world. The article discusses how Turkey's International Relations literature has responded to this issue by focusing on the example of the literature on "security". It is argued that Turkey is located in the "periphery" of International Relations, which is characterised by a hierarchical structure whereby the "center" develops the concepts and theories to be adopted by the "periphery". This argument is supported by a survey of the two oldest journals of International Relations in Turkey, namely, the Turkish Yearbook of International Relations and Siyasal Bilgiler Fakültesi Dergisi.
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
Turkey

2993. The EU Consented to Negotiations, but will it Allow Turkey in?

Author:
Murat Metin Hakki
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
The Europeans fought the Turks and tried to drive them away from Europe for about 16 centuries, starting in around 452 C.E. when Attila, the Emperor of Huns, sieged Rome. They almost achieved that goal with the 1912-13 Balkan War. However, the circumstances brought the Turks to the gates of Brussels almost 90 years later, this time as a candidate for the EU membership. The most advanced stage Turkey reached in the process of accession came with the EU's decision to start negotiations on October 3, 2005. The success of the AKP Government should be acknowledged with that respect. They reached a point no Turkish cabinet had reached until now. However, it is obvious that the repercussions of the December 17, 2004 decision should not be overestimated.
Topic:
International Relations and Foreign Policy
Political Geography:
Turkey, Eastern Europe, and Rome

2994. Observations on U.S. Strategies in the Persian Gulf Region, 1941-2005: From the Atlantic Charter, the Twin Pillars and Dual Containment, to the "Axis of Evil"; and Beyond

Author:
Christopher D. O'Sullivan
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Columbia International Affairs Online
Abstract:
Neoconservative supporters of President Bush are supposedly fond of the notion that, while Baghdad is for "men," "real men" go to Tehran. But are there larger implications of this notion beyond the swagger implied? What is the link between the war in Iraq and future US policy toward Iran? Is the war in Iraq perceived in neoconservative -- or "Vulcan" -- circles as a mere stepping stone to a confrontation with Iran? Where do Iraq and Iran fit into the larger historical framework of US interests in the Persian Gulf?
Topic:
International Relations and Security
Political Geography:
United States, Iraq, Iran, Middle East, and Tehran

2995. The Use and Perception of Weapons Before and After Conflict: Evidence from Rwanda

Author:
Philip Verwimp and Cécelle Meijer
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
The majority of Rwanda's population considers itself Hutu (more than 80 per cent), whereas a smaller group is referred to as Tutsi (about 15 percent). The Twa are the smallest minority. In 1994, after four years of civil war, Rwanda descended into genocide. The Tutsi minority was the main target, but Hutu and Twa who were not willing to participate in the killings were also murdered. In fewer than three months, more than 500,000 people were brutally slaughtered.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Africa and Rwanda

2996. The Role of Small Arms during the 2003-2004 Conflict in Iraq

Author:
Gilbert Burnham, Riyadh Lafta, Les Roberts, and Richard Garfield
Publication Date:
09-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
Iraq underwent a particularly deadly war with neighbouring Iran during the 1980s with perhaps a million deaths occurring. Following the Persian Gulf war of 1991, more than 60,000 Iraqis were believed to have been killed by the government in retaliation for perceived support of the US-led coalition during the conflict. The level of violence within Iraq has not been well recorded in recent years and, in fact, no survey or census-based estimate of crude mortality has been made in Iraq since 1997 and the last estimate of mortality in children under five years of age was a UNICEF-sponsored demographic survey of 1999.
Topic:
International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, and War
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

2997. Silencing Guns: Local Perspectives on Small Arms and Armed Violence in Rural Pacific Islands Communities

Author:
Emile LeBrun and Robert Muggah
Publication Date:
06-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Small Arms Survey
Abstract:
At a time when the funding for weapons reduction and armed conflict prevention work is at an all-time high and still growing, the lack of accessible, standard evaluative tools is becoming more and more conspicuous. Though this partly stems from a debate within the disarmament community as to what the right set of measures should be, it is also a reaction to the practical difficulty—in some cases, outright impossibility—of collecting quantitative data on armed violence, especially in rural areas. Clearly, there is a great need for alternative means of assessing and reporting on the impacts of both small arms availability and misuse, and efforts to reduce those impacts.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, International Relations, and Arms Control and Proliferation
Political Geography:
Australia/Pacific and Island

2998. Geopolitics, Grand Strategy and the Bush Doctrine

Author:
Simon Dalby
Publication Date:
10-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
Geopolitics is about the largest scale geographical specification of political matters. Geopolitical reasoning provides the spatial framings within which grand strategy is constructed. The Bush doctrine, elaborated in response to the events of September 11th 2001 and its formulation of a "Global War on Terror" draws heavily on antecedent formulations from both the first Bush administration and the Project for a New American Century. But in doing so it both misconstrues the nature of the events of September 11th and attempts a grand strategy that is flawed. It is flawed both because of its failure to understand the geography of terror and, given the Bush administration's flat denials that America is an empire, a reluctance to learn lessons from imperial history and adopt appropriate strategies and force structures to accomplish its ostensible goals.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Defense Policy
Political Geography:
United States

2999. Democracy, History, and Migrant Labor in South Korea

Author:
Hyun Park
Publication Date:
01-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
This paper concerns the paradox of democratization in South Korea, whose progression has been entwined with neoliberal capitalism beginning in the 1990s. There have been critical moments of democratization since the military rulers gave in to popular pressure for democratization. These moments range from the recommencement of the popular electoral system in the Presidential election in 1987 to the transfer of the state power to civilian leaders, and the participation of former dissidents in the parliament and the administration. A particular form of democratization addressed in this paper is not electoral state politics but the broad-reaching initiatives to transform the relationship between the state and society. Specifically, I examine the initiative to rewrite colonial and cold-war history. This particular initiative is part of an effort to correct a longstanding tendency of previous military regimes that suppressed the resolution of colonial legacies and framed Korean national history within an ideological confrontation of capitalist South Korea and communist North Korea.
Topic:
International Relations and Globalization
Political Geography:
United States, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

3000. Indian Federalism and the Conduct of Foreign Policy in Border States: State Participation and Central Accommodation since 1990

Author:
Rafiq Dossani and Srinidhi Vijaykumar
Publication Date:
03-2005
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Walter H. Shorenstein Asia-Pacific Research Center
Abstract:
The role of subnational units (states, provinces, cantons, Lander) in international affairs is a growing subject in the literature on federalist affairs. Scholars of political science have traditionally seen the conduct of foreign policy as the exclusive domain of the national government. This would seem an especially apt observation about India's federalist system. The Indian constitution has given the center particularly strong powers—so strong, in fact, that some have described it as “quasi federal” because of the lack of autonomy it affords to the states. Yet, there is an increasing consensus that the states have not been shy of foreign policy advocacy. Some have argued that the era of coalition governance has increased such advocacy and, potentially, influence, especially in the context of globalization and economic reform and liberalization.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, and Government
Political Geography:
South Asia and India