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41951. Managing Expectations in the U.S.-Japan Alliance: U.S. and Japanese Perspectives

Author:
Randall Schriver and Sugio Takahashi
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
As a participant in the Armitage-Nye process, I am associated with a set of policy recommendations that have been remarkably consistent over the course of twelve years and three reports (Armitage-Nye reports were produced in 2000, 2007, and 2012 respectively). Some common themes run across all three reports: We are unapologetic about promoting high aspirations for the U.S.-Japan alliance. We attempt to outline an ambitious bilateral agenda in great specificity. We believe that those aspirations and the ambitious agenda can only be met through the intentional and dedicated efforts of senior political leaders on both sides.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, and Alliance
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, North America, and United States of America

41952. Half Lives: A Preliminary Assessment of China’s Nuclear Warhead Life Extension and Safety Program

Author:
Ian Easton and Mark Stokes
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
Nuclear warheads and their associated delivery vehicles (ballistic and cruise missiles) represent the most powerful and potentially destabilizing weapons in the world today. While rapid advances in information and communications technology have endowed conventional weapons systems with the “intelligence” and precision to take on a greater number of strategic missions–for example targeting aircraft carrier groups and critical command nodes–nuclear weapons remain the sine qua non of deterrence. Indeed, while every nation’s leadership fears war to some degree, the threat of war is only truly horrific for a leader who faces an enemy armed with nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Intelligence, Nuclear Weapons, Communications, Weapons, and Political stability
Political Geography:
China and Asia

41953. Obama’s Second Term in the Asia-Pacific Region: Reflecting on the Past, Looking to the Future

Author:
Sabrina Tsai
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The Asia-Pacific region proved to be one of the top priorities of U.S. foreign policy during President Obama’s first term. The East China Sea and South China Sea territorial disputes; Kim Jong-un’s succession to the North Korean leadership and subsequent provocations; and China’s rapid military modernization over the last two decades were and continue to be among some of the top security issues for the Obama Administration. This paper outlines Obama’s Asia policy in the first term and assesses the trajectory of the U.S. “rebalance” strategy in the second term, taking into account the numerous personnel changes in Obama’s senior-level foreign policy team.
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Barack Obama
Political Geography:
China, North Korea, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

41954. Is Tourism Haiti’s Magic Bullet? An Empirical Treatment of Haiti’s Tourism Potential

Author:
Athena R. Kolbe, Keely Brookes, and Robert Muggah
Publication Date:
06-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
Tourism is often described as key to Haiti’s salvation. The economic potential of foreigners visiting the island nation is cited in virtually all major assessments of the country’s current development problems. This may seem at first counterintuitive: the impoverished and disaster-stricken country has long-struggled with violence and political instability. But it is increasingly regarded as necessary. Immediately after the January 2010 earthquake it was recognized that strategic investments would be needed to secure Haiti’s economy once foreign aid had diminished. Tourism was recently elevated to a top priority by Haiti’s current administration and the Ministry of Tourism. The government hopes that an influx of foreign currency generated by tourist dollars could help lift the country out of aid-dependency. This is not as surprising as it may seem. Haiti used to be a Caribbean destination – Graham Green described it as a tropical idyll in the mid-twentieth century during the early years of the Duvalier regime. What is more, former U.S. president Bill Clinton publically reminisces of his honeymoon in Haiti and until the 1990s Club Med ran a resort just an hour outside of Port-au-Prince. Yet the prospects for tourism are still highly uncertain. After coups in 1991 and 2004, recreational tourism has all but vanished. Since the devastating 2010 earthquake, one is more likely to see missionaries and aid workers in Haiti than vacationers. This Strategic Note assesses the extent to which Haiti is safe for tourism and explores how tourists and those in the industry view their role in Haiti’s development efforts to increase tourism. It draws, as in past Igarapé Institute publications, on both quantitative surveys and qualitative research. Informed by this empirical evidence, the study sets out a number of recommendations to improve the tourism industry within the country. This Strategic Note considers the perceptions of tourists visiting Haiti in 2013 and their motives and perceptions of the country. A total of 2,231 tourists were surveyed with a response rate of almost 75 per cent. An additional 390 tourism professionals were also consulted and interviewed.
Topic:
Government, Natural Disasters, Tourism, and Economy
Political Geography:
Caribbean and Haiti

41955. Smarter Policing: Tracking the Influence of New Information Technology in Rio de Janeiro

Author:
Graham Denyer Willis, Robert Muggah, Justin Kosslyn, and Felipe Leusin
Publication Date:
11-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Igarapé Institute
Abstract:
Technological advancements are changing the architecture of police-society relations around the world. New modes of oversight, whether applied by public security entities or citizens, are dramatically transforming the way policing is conducted. This is especially the case in digitally connected cities in the North and South. Surprisingly little is known, however, about how technology can be used to drive reform in police institutions including in Rio de Janeiro, where the relationships between police and residents are characterized by mistrust. A key objective of the Smart Policing project, a partnership of the Igarapé Institute and the Policia Militar do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (PMERJ), is to explore ways to enhance police accountability through technology. The following Strategic Note considers how the recently installed pacification police units (Unidades de Policia Pacificadora or UPP) are using technology to recapture urban territory from drug trafficking groups while simultaneously expanding trust and reciprocity with citizens. It examines how technological innovations at the street level, including mobile phone applications, can potentially strengthen the integrity of police work and the social contract.
Topic:
Crime, Science and Technology, Law Enforcement, and Police
Political Geography:
Brazil and South America

41956. Toward a New Phase of US-China Museum Collaborations

Author:
Melissa Chiu, Orville Schell, and András Szántó
Publication Date:
01-2013
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Asia Society
Abstract:
The 2012 U.S.-China Museum Directors Forum, organized by Asia Society and the Chinese People's Association for Friendship with Foreign Countries, brought together 17 Chinese and 15 American museum leaders for a two-day dialogue to assess common needs and develop new processes for museum exchanges. The museum leaders identified various benefits of museum exchanges. Such programs provide information and experiences to museum audiences; foster tolerance and understanding between nations; and enhance cultural competence in a globalized world. The directors also identified obstacles impeding museum collaborations, including disparities in resources and practices; cumbersome bureaucratic, legal, and regulatory systems; a lack of familiarity between museum professionals; and the absence of institutional and funding mechanisms to facilitate exchanges. Going forward, the museum leaders pinpointed three key areas of need and opportunity for the evolution of U.S.-China museum collaborations: improving people-to-people contacts; fostering institutional relations; and greater coordination within the museum sector in both countries. Taken together, the recommendations offer a blueprint for improving institutional interactions. The directors suggested specific programs that their institutions, coupled with other museums, government agencies, and private funders, can pursue going forward. The consensus view among them was that the expansion of museum collaborations will require new funding and organizational mechanisms to spur and conduct exchange activities. Some of the goals outlined by the Chinese and American museum directors will be pursued by the Asian Arts and Museum Network, established in 2012 by Asia Society Museum.
Topic:
International Relations, Arts, Culture, and Museums
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

41957. Liberalism in Obama's age

Author:
John Ikenberry
Publication Date:
08-2013
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Argentine Council for International Relations (CARI)
Abstract:
I'm trying to lay out my thinking on Obama's foreign policy and the larger debate often seen inside the United States about the role of the United States over the next years.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Liberalism, and Barack Obama
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

41958. Iran's Nuclear and Missile Programs as P5+1 Talks Resume

Author:
Greg Thielmann and Kelsey Davenport
Publication Date:
09-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
As negotiations are poised to resume between Iran and the six powers seeking to rein in Iran's nuclear program, it is difficult to avoid a sense of déjà vu. For years now, the UN Security Council has demanded Iran suspend uranium enrichment. Tehran continues to expand its nuclear program and insists it will never compromise its right to enrich, the United States continues to tighten sanctions on Iranian trade and finances, and alarms are raised about Iran being able to sprint to a nuclear bomb with little warning. Yet, with a new Iranian president and negotiating team, there are grounds for cautious optimism that talks this time can be different. Although Iran continues to enrich uranium and add to its nuclear complex, time remains to negotiate an agreement that adequately guards against Iran building nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, Nonproliferation, and Negotiation
Political Geography:
Iran and Middle East

41959. The Naval Nuclear Reactor Threat to the NPT

Author:
Greg Thielmann and Serena Kelleher-Vergantini
Publication Date:
07-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
The nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) has long been a critical bulwark against the spread of nuclear weapons. Although preventing the production and accumulation of fissile material is an important part of this effort, the NPT does not explicitly regulate the production, use, and disposition of highly enriched uranium (HEU) for naval nuclear reactors. This exclusion poses a growing risk to achieving the nonproliferation goals of the treaty. While seeking to advance prospects for a fissile material cutoff treaty, the United States is continuing to design naval reactors for the world’s largest nuclear submarine fleet that are powered with weapons-grade uranium. While proclaiming its renunciation of any nuclear weapons ambitions, Brazil plans to build six nuclear submarines powered by uranium fuel that may be close to weapons grade. Neither the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nor important NPT member states have fully confronted the proliferation implications of excluding naval reactor fuel from safeguards. The IAEA and NPT members should take steps to minimize the use of HEU for any reason—a goal they declared just this month at a nuclear security conference in Vienna.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, and Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT)
Political Geography:
Brazil, Global Focus, and United States of America

41960. Lessons for Handling Iran From the Sad Saga of Iraq

Author:
Greg Thielmann and Alexandra Schmitt
Publication Date:
03-2013
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Arms Control Association
Abstract:
Ten years ago today, President George W. Bush said in a radio address to the nation: "It is clear that Saddam Hussein is still violating the demands of the United Nations by refusing to disarm." Eleven days later, he announced the invasion of Iraq to remove the weapons of mass destruction (WMD) allegedly possessed by Hussein's brutal regime and to prevent their use by or transfer to terrorist networks such as al Qaeda. That no such weapons existed was less a symptom of flawed intelligence than the U.S. leaders' obsession with achieving regime change in Baghdad and their consequent willingness to distort evidence on WMD toward that end. This distortion, along with failures by the press and Congress to exercise due diligence in evaluating the assertions of the executive branch, blinded the public to contravening information on Iraqi WMD that was readily available during the six weeks preceding the attack. Ironically, the most important sources of this ignored information were the very inspectors that the international community had forced Iraq to readmit the previous fall. There are lessons here for current efforts to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, Weapons of Mass Destruction, History, and Iraq War
Political Geography:
Iraq, Iran, and Middle East