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38981. Guns, Money and Prayers: AQIM's Blueprint for Securing Control of Northern Mali

Author:
Morten Bøås
Publication Date:
04-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
AL-QA`IDA IN THE ISLAMIC Maghreb (AQIM) is occasionally described as an operational branch of the global al-Qa`ida structure. Yet AQIM should not be viewed as an external al-Qa`ida force operating in the Sahel and Sahara. For years, AQIM and its offshoots have pursued strategies of integration in the region based on a sophisticated reading of the local context. AQIM and its offshoots leverage money, guns and prayers to establish their presence in poorly governed areas in the Sahel and the Sahara. Their use of religion is of particular importance in an area where the local governing administration, to the degree that it exists, is generally perceived by the domestic population as corrupt, whereas AQIM and affiliated Islamist militants present themselves as honest and pious Muslims. This is especially the case in northern Mali.
Political Geography:
Northern Mali

38982. The Future Role of U.S. Counterterrorism Operations in Africa

Author:
Michael A. Sheehan and Geoff D. Porter
Publication Date:
02-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
IN HIS STATE OF THE UNION on January 28, 2014, President Barack Obama's speech focused on domestic issues, but singled out Africa, specifically mentioning Somalia and Mali, in reference to the evolution of the al-Qa`ida threat, the emergence of al-Qa`ida affiliates and the need for the United States to continue to work with partners to disrupt and disable these networks.
Political Geography:
Africa and United States

38983. Venezuela: Tipping Point

Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
International Crisis Group
Abstract:
Violence has exacerbated an already tense political situation in Venezuela and made finding a solution both more urgent and more complex. Nationwide unrest, following deaths at a protest called by student leaders and a sector of the opposition on 12 February, sparked a political crisis that involved Venezuela's neighbours in efforts to find a negotiated settlement. By early May it had cost around 40 lives and led to scores of human rights violations. Failure to end the violence through negotiations has hindered the task of resolving serious social and economic problems. It has also damaged the credibility of regional institutions. To reverse the crisis and turn this tipping point into an opportunity, both parties must commit to a political dialogue based on the constitution; the government must abide by its human rights commitments and restore the rule of law and the separation of powers; the international community must provide both sides with guarantees, technical assistance and political impetus.
Topic:
Political Violence, Human Rights, and Governance
Political Geography:
South America and Venezuela

38984. Maritime Hotlines in East Asia

Author:
Euan Graham
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Abstract:
"Hotline" communication channels or Direct Communication Links (DCLs) have the potential to serve limited but important crisis management and confidence-building functions in East Asia's increasingly tense maritime security environment. Their primary purpose is to provide a secure communications channel between national command authorities for clarifying intentions in near real time in order to prevent unintended military conflict, especially where territory is actively in dispute. This has clear policy relevance given East Asia's maritime geography, the existence of overlapping sovereignty and boundary claims, and the rising tide of incidents at sea and in the airspace above. This pertains not only to armed forces but extends to paramilitary and civilian law enforcement vessels and aircraft.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Sovereignty, and Maritime Commerce
Political Geography:
East Asia and Southeast Asia

38985. Legality in Cyberspace: An Adversary View

Author:
Andrew Monaghan and Keir Giles
Publication Date:
03-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The United States and its allies are in general agreement on the legal status of conflict in cyberspace. Although key principles remain unresolved, such as what precisely constitutes an armed attack or use of force in cyberspace, overall there is a broad legal consensus among Euro-Atlantic nations that existing international law and international commitments are sufficient to regulate cyber conflict.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, and Science and Technology
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, and North America

38986. The Resurgence of Al-Qaeda in Syria and Iraq

Author:
Azeem Ibrahim
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The Syrian civil war has allowed al-Qaeda to recover from its setbacks up to 2010. Its main affiliate in the region seems to be testing a new strategy of collaboration with other Salafist-Jihadist groups and a less brutal implementation of Sharia law in areas it controls. In combination, this might allow the Al Nusrah Front to carve out the sort of territorial control of a region (or state) that al-Qaeda has sought ever since its eviction from Afghanistan. On the other hand, Syria has also seen a civil war between two al-Qaeda inspired factions (Al Nusrah and the Iraq based Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant [ISIS]) and indicates there are limits to its ability to cooperate with other anti-Assad factions and gain popular appeal. The extent that the Syrian civil war offers the means for al-Qaeda to recover from its earlier defeats will determine whether the organization has a future, or if it will become simply an ideology and label adopted by various Islamist movements fighting their own separate struggles.
Topic:
Security, Terrorism, and Armed Struggle
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

38987. Asymmetric strategic problems in nuclear nonproliferation

Author:
Tongfi Kim
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
This article explains cooperation problems between powerful democratic states and weak non-democratic states in the context of nuclear non- proliferation. Focusing on the interactions of the United States with North Korea, Iran, and Libya, it suggests that power asymmetry and information asymmetry foster mutual distrust by exacerbating two main strategic obstacles to cooperation: the time inconsistency of the stronger state's policy and the incomplete information regarding the non-democratic states. The nature of negotiations over nuclear weapons programs further exacerbates these problems. The overall implications of this article leave us pessimistic about the possibility of negotiated nuclear dis-armament, but the theoretical analysis may help the negotiation strategy of the United States.
Political Geography:
United States, East Asia, and North Korea

38988. The changing architecture of politics in the Asia-Pacific: Australia's middle power moment?

Author:
Mark Beeson and Richard Higgott
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
Middle power theory is enjoying a modest renaissance. For all its possible limitations, middle power theory offers a potentially useful framework for thinking about the behavior of, and options open, to key states in the Asia-Pacific such as South Korea, Japan and Australia, states that are secondary rather than primary players. We argue that middle powers have the potential to successfully implement 'games of skill', especially at moments of international transition. Frequently, however, middle powers choose not to exercise their potential influence because of extant alliance commitments and the priority accorded to security questions. We sub-stantiate these claims through an examination of the Australian case. Australian policymakers have made much of the potential role middle powers might play, but they have frequently failed to develop an independent foreign policy position because of pre-existing alliance commitments. We suggest that if the 'middle power moment' is to amount to more than rhetoric, opportunities must be acted upon.
Topic:
International Cooperation
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, South Korea, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific

38989. Testing the creativity of Kevin Rudd's middle power diplomacy: EU–Australia partnership framework versus the Asia-Pacific community

Author:
Gürol Baba and Taylan Özgür Kaya
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
The 2007 Australian Parliamentary Elections brought a new dynamic to Australia's foreign policy: the Kevin Rudd factor. The Prime Minister sought to develop a more proactive and multi-faceted foreign policy around 'Creative Middle Power Diplomacy'. This study aims to cast light on the dynamism in Australia's Foreign Policy with Kevin Rudd within the framework of middle power activism. The research firstly focuses on the difficulties of defining and classifying middle powers through which it will put forward specific ' commonalities' for successful middle power foreign policy outcomes. The study of the EU–Australia Partnership Framework and the Asia-Pacific Community proposals–both of which were priorities for Kevin Rudd–reveal the potential and limits of middle power activism. This study argues that in today ' s world, middle powers have growing potential to pursue specific foreign policy goals but their ability to achieve these goals is constrained by Great Powers ' interests and consent, and also by the nature or ' commonalities' of middle power diplomatic practice.
Political Geography:
Asia, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific

38990. Balance of payments and power: assessing China's global and regional interdependence relationship

Author:
Ian Tsung-yen Chen
Publication Date:
05-2014
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
Global economic imbalance leads to change in the global distribution of economic resources. While some foresee the inevitable decline of US power, others consider China's forthcoming global primacy to be an exaggeration. This paper seeks to contribute to the debate by linking balance of payments (BOP) to power analysis. Dimensions of BOP are connected to Keohane and Nye's two ideal-types of interdependence relationship: realist and complex interdependence. The former relates to the global distribution of aggregate economic resources; the latter emphasizes a detailed investigation of distinct interdependence situations between countries. China's BOP from 1997 to 2012 is assessed through the lens of both ideal-type scenarios. The findings show that China's growing power manifests principally in its rising status as a major global buyer in primary goods and its growing military strength in the region. However, China is confronted with possible slowdown in wealth accumulation and its lagging technological development. At present, the speculation of China's upcoming global primacy may be exaggerated, but its dominant position in the region is indeed on the rise.
Political Geography:
United States and China