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35401. Just Enough, Just in Time: Improving Sovereign Debt Restructuring for Creditors, Debtors and Citizens

Author:
Richard Gitlin and Brett House
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Recent international financial turmoil — most notably in Greece — has refocused attention on the risks posed by severe sovereign debt crises and weaknesses in our approaches to restructuring sovereign debt. Since early 2010, these risks have driven a range of debt-related policy proposals and actions in individual economies, across regions and at the international financial institutions. While some incremental first reform steps have been taken, these have not yet produced a more efficient, effective or resilient international framework for handling severe sovereign debt crises and effecting sovereign debt workouts. In contrast, some institutional and policy changes made in the heat of the euro-zone crisis have raised as many questions as they have resolved. Old policy ideas are also being resurrected and configured in new ways for current challenges. After years of substantial fiscal stimulus and exceptional monetary policies, high debt burdens across the advanced economies, fears of secular stagnation, signs of an imminent increase in US borrowing costs and deteriorating demographics together make a compelling case for concerted action to improve international arrangements for dealing with distressed sovereign debt.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35402. Corporate Debt in Emerging Economies: A Threat to Financial Stability?

Author:
Barry Eichengreen, Domenico Lombardi, Malcolm D. Knight, Yu Yongding, Stephen G. Cecchetti, Diane De Gramont, Şebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Phillip R. Lane, Ugo Panizza, and Viral V. Acharya
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
During 1999-2007, the international balance sheets of emerging economies grew stronger through a combination of current account surpluses, a shift from debt funding to equity funding, and the stockpiling of liquid foreign reserves. This risk-mitigating strategy improved the international financial standing of many emerging economies and helped these economies withstand the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. However, a combination of domestic and external factors has led to a partial reversal of this strategy, with some emerging economies accumulating significant external debt since 2010. Previewed by the May 2013 “taper tantrum,” there has been considerable speculation that a tightening of dollar-funding conditions and a macroeconomic slowdown in emerging economies may result in financial instability in some emerging economies.
Topic:
Debt, Economics, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35403. Next Steps for the G20: Turkey 2015

Author:
Paul Martin, Thomas A. Bernes, Olaf Weber, Hongying Wang, and Kevin Carmichael
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
On November 15-16, 2015, leaders of the world's major advanced and emerging economies will meet in Antalya, Turkey for the G20 summit. In this special report, CIGI experts present their perspectives and policy analysis on the key priorities facing the G20 at Antalya. The Right Honourable Paul Martin states that the multilateral institutions created to make globalization work should be a G20 priority. Thomas A. Bernes asks whether G20 leaders and the institutions that support them can articulate a “policy upgrade” that brings more credibility than last year’s Brisbane Action Plan. Olaf Weber argues that the next step for the G20 should be the development of policies and guidelines that help to manage climate change and financial risk in a prudential way. Hongying Wang examines China's rare opportunity as it assumes the presidency of the G20 to push for collective new thinking on how to establish a less fragmented and more coherent global framework for investment governance that balances the interests of different stakeholders. Finally, Kevin Carmichael suggests that the G20 should elevate gender balance to the top of its agenda.
Topic:
Economics, Emerging Markets, Globalization, Governance, G20, Financial Markets, and Turkey
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35404. The End of the Beginning: Paris COP 2015

Author:
David Runnalls
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The Paris Conference of the Parties (COP) 2015 is designed to produce the next round of climate change action. There are reasons to believe that the chances for success at the multilateral level are better now that they were before, but even under the most optimistic scenarios, Paris will not be the end of the negotiations. The Paris summit will be crucial to maintaining the momentum that has been building in the private sector and civil society on the issue of climate change. COP 21 has generated an enormous amount of public interest. Civil society actions both before and during the Paris meeting promise to be on a grand scale. In addition, COP21 has excited action from a number of other levels of government not normally seen at these events. Leaders of the IMF, the World Bank and the OECD have all stated that climate change is the principal economic issue facing the world this century. There is a growing realization among the world's economic decision makers that the shift to a low-carbon economy is not only a necessity, but also may be less costly than we believe. The need to identify both public and private financing solutions is the greatest hurdle facing the Paris COP. CIGI's climate change research is tackling the issue of financing sustainable development, in addition to how agreements can be reached by smaller countries, how to address the problems of the delayed benefits from mitigation, ways that China can exercise leadership in this arena, and how the world's financial institutions can help mobilize climate finance from the private sector.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Regulation, Financial Markets, and Climate Finance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35405. Central Banks Can and Should Do Their Part in Funding Sustainability

Author:
Andrew Sheng
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Central banks, when purchasing financial assets, should consider selecting assets that will promote sustainability, including climate change mitigation and adaptation. During the 2008 financial crisis, central banks deployed unconventional means to rescue failing banks and insulate economies from depression. Their asset purchases have had strong social impacts, but traditionally, central banks have not explicitly factored social objectives into their decisions or evaluated their impacts beyond the narrow monetary domain. Social impact investing is consistent with a central bank’s mandate to maintain price stability, but those not yet ready to move in this direction should at least incentivize bankers and asset managers to invest in, or lend to, climate mitigation activities and low-emission growth, as well as support a financial transaction tax.
Topic:
Climate Change, Energy Policy, Environment, Markets, Monetary Policy, and Financial Markets
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35406. Climate Technology Partnerships: Form, Function and Impact

Author:
Arunabha Ghosh, Anupama VijayKumar, and Sudatta Ray
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
With halting progress in climate negotiations, there are growing calls for partnerships among self-selected pools of countries, in the expectation that they would facilitate consensus (among both developed and developing countries) and result in faster decision making. In critically examining such a claim, this paper asks: what kinds of partnerships could facilitate coordinated climate-related action across several countries? By focusing largely on technology partnerships (a key demand in climate negotiations), it examines characteristics of successful partnerships and the conditions under which they are created and sustained. While the motivations of existing partnerships are diverse, their functional scope has remained limited. A review of more than 30 initiatives reveals that very few had been designed to extend beyond sharing knowledge and some preliminary research and development activities. Even fewer had enlarged functional focus on actual transfer of equipment, joint production or extensive deployment mandates. The paper intensively analyzes the purpose, membership and governance of four partnerships. Drawing on their lessons, the paper identifies critical features — appropriate financing, leveraging capacity, flexible intellectual property rules and coordination across several institutions — which could become the foundation of new partnerships to deliver measurable action and possibly increase trust among negotiating parties.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, and Governance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35407. Investor-State Arbitration Between Developed Democratic Countries

Author:
Armand de Mestral
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Investor-state arbitration (ISA), also known as Investor-State Dispute Settlement (ISDS), by which a foreign investor is entitled to sue a state for damages resulting from the alleged violation of an applicable bilateral investment treaty or an investment chapter in a regional trade agreement, has come under scrutiny in many parts of the world. But in no countries has it been subject to greater scrutiny and challenge than in developed democracies. First in Canada and the United States as a result of the adoption of NAFTA Chapter 11, subsequently in the European Union as a result of the adoption of the International Energy Charter, and latterly in other countries such as Australia, critics have alleged that ISA grants an undue privilege to foreign investors whose complaints should be heard by domestic courts instead of panels of international arbitrators. Availability of ISA is in fact worldwide, due to a network of more than 3,200 investment treaties; criticisms have been voiced in different parts of the world and various proposals for change have been made. The criticisms in developed democracies have become sufficiently strong for it to be necessary to raise the question of whether recourse to ISA is appropriate in any form in developed democracies. Armand de Mestral’s paper is the first in the Investor-State Arbitration project. The series of papers will be prepared by leading experts from a number of developed democracies. Each will review the experience of ISA within specific jurisdictions, with a view to understanding the debates that have occurred in each one. The focus of the debate is on developed democracies, but the implications for the whole international community are very much in mind.
Topic:
Development, Energy Policy, Treaties and Agreements, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Direct Investment, and Democracy
Political Geography:
United States and Canada

35408. International Regulatory Cooperation on the Resolution of Financial Institutions: Where Does India Stand?

Author:
Renuka Sane
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
This paper provides a brief description of the principles of cross-border resolution that have emerged after the 2008 global financial crisis, and the progress that has been achieved. The paper then provides an overview of developments on resolution of financial firms in India. It finds that while there is cognizance of the need for international cooperation on resolution, the focus is on first developing institutional capacity on domestic resolution that can interact with the international community in the future. The policy choices of India may be reflective of the thinking in a large number of emerging markets, which considerably lag behind the more developed markets, partly due to lower interconnectedness and partly due to limited experience in domestic resolution.
Topic:
Development, Emerging Markets, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
India

35409. Capital Controls and Implications for Surveillance and Coordination: Brazil and Latin America

Author:
Marcio Garcia
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
From 2009 until 2011, Brazil utilized capital controls to deter real exchange rate appreciation. These measures may have obstructed necessary changes in the fiscal policy stance from occurring. In Chile, which employed capital controls heavily in the 1990s and then decided not to use them again during the commodity super-boom in the 2000s, suggests that an adequate fiscal policy stance provides better results than the use of capital controls. In addition, the recent experiences of Colombia and Peru demonstrate capital controls are not always necessary. This paper makes recommendations for capital control surveillance and coordination, using the Brazilian experience as an example, and draws on experiences in other Latin American countries. When analyzing the implications for surveillance and coordination, international institutions, such as the International Monetary Fund, should take into consideration that, no matter how many caveats are listed before its guidelines, capital controls mainly serve to bypass needed changes in macroeconomic policy, thereby jeopardizing economic performance.
Topic:
Economics, Foreign Exchange, and International Monetary Fund
Political Geography:
Brazil and Latin America

35410. Submission to Ontario’s Climate Change Discussion Paper 2015

Author:
Oonagh Fitzgerald, Karima Bawa, David Estrin, Kent Howe, Dean MacDougall, Myra J. Tawfik, Basil Ugochukwu, and Bassem Awad
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The International Law Research Program (ILRP) of the Centre for International Governance Innovation (CIGI) congratulates the Province of Ontario’s Ministry of the Environment and Climate Change for launching a province-wide public consultation process — Ontario’s Climate Change Discussion Paper 2015 — in relation to an issue of global importance and urgency for Ontarians and Canadians alike, at a time when nations need to galvanize their subnationals, climate experts, civil society, business and industry to commit to intended nationally determined contributions (INDCs) to reduce carbon emissions and mitigate the effects of climate change. The CIGI ILRP is optimistic that through this provincial consultation process and implementation of the best ideas it generates, as well as through Ontario’s initiatives undertaken in collaboration with other provinces and foreign subnationals, Canadians will be able to prove to the world our commitment to make a meaningful contribution to achieving an ambitious, verifiable and enforceable international agreement on climate change in December 2015 in Paris. By proactively addressing climate change now, the Government of Ontario positions this province, its citizens, universities and businesses to be innovators for sustainable prosperity rather than victims of global environmental and economic crisis.
Topic:
Civil Society, Climate Change, Economics, Energy Policy, Environment, Markets, and Natural Resources
Political Geography:
Canada

35411. Ukraine and the IMF's Evolving Debt Crisis Narrative

Author:
Susan Schadler
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Against the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) fraught experience with crises where debt restructuring is needed, Ukraine’s recent restructuring agreement has been a success. Several factors — in particular, Ukraine’s geopolitical position and the composition of its creditors — facilitated official support for the deal. As these are unlikely to be replicated in future debt crises, the IMF still needs a revamping of its policies and approach in crises requiring debt restructuring. This policy brief examines a number of key challenges in the evolution of a coherent role for the IMF in future crises.
Topic:
Debt, Political Economy, International Monetary Fund, Financial Crisis, and Global Markets
Political Geography:
Ukraine

35412. The 2015 Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance

Author:
Domenico Lombardi and Kelsey Shanty
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The annual CIGI Survey of Progress in International Economic Governance assesses progress in five areas of international economic governance: macroeconomic and financial cooperation; cooperation on financial regulation; cooperation on development; cooperation on trade; and cooperation on climate change. In this year’s survey, 31 CIGI experts conclude that international economic arrangements continue to show a level of “status quo,” averaging a score of 50% across all five areas. The 2015 survey indicates a slight improvement to the result of last year’s survey, which suggested a minimal regression overall. The experts’ assessment of progress was most promising in the area of climate change cooperation, with an average score of 57%, whereas the least promising area was macroeconomic and financial cooperation, with a score of 44%, indicating minimal regression. The remaining three areas polled all fell within the “status quo” range, with trade at 46%, development at 48% and international cooperation on financial regulation at 53%. Interestingly, in the area of cooperation on development, CIGI’s experts provided a relatively mixed assessment. Responses varied based on experts’ perception of the effectiveness of current rhetoric, from 70% (indicating some progress) to 10% (suggesting major regression). Compared to last year, climate change governance has made the greatest improvement, but the remaining three areas (with the exception of development, which was not included in the 2014 survey) have all, on average, regressed further or remained stagnant. This trend is cause for concern.
Topic:
Climate Change, Development, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, and Financial Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35413. The Digital Trade Imbalance and Its Implications for Internet Governance

Author:
Susan Ariel Aaronson
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
Today, information is currency; it facilitates productivity, exchange, technology and trade. Information is also the building block of the digital economy (an economy based on digital technologies — products and services that facilitate the creation, storage, analysis and sharing of data and information). Although many countries are gaining expertise and market share, one country, the United States, dominates both the global digital economy and digital trade (commerce in products and services delivered via the Internet). The United States is also the key force behind efforts to develop a system of trade rules to govern cross-border information flows.
Topic:
Economics, Science and Technology, Mass Media, and Digital Economy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35414. The Case for Intellectual Property Rights: Should Patents Be Strengthened, Weakened or Abolished Altogether?

Author:
Joel Blit
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Governance Innovation
Abstract:
The case for patents rests crucially on three conditions: that innovation is undersupplied in the absence of patents; that patents promote increased innovation; and that the welfare benefits of any additional innovation outweigh the welfare costs associated with the temporary monopoly that patents generate. While it is probably true that innovation is undersupplied, the empirical evidence is mixed on whether patents foster innovation. This may be due to patents stifling cumulative innovation because of holdup and ex ante uncertainty over patent rights. This policy brief recommends that to reduce the potential for holdup, uncertainty around patent rights should be reduced. Patents should be easily searchable and more easily understood by non-legal experts. In addition, patents should be narrower and more clearly demarcated. To the extent that the welfare costs of patents appear to outweigh their benefits, the requirements for obtaining a patent should be tightened. Further, patents should be made less broad and, concomitant with the reduction in the length of the product cycle, the length of patents should also be reduced.
Topic:
Human Welfare, Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, and Governance
Political Geography:
United States

35415. Addressing Past Flaws and Looking to the Future: How Can the WTO Be Made More Relevant?

Author:
Damian Wnukowski
Publication Date:
02-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) is celebrating the 20th anniversary of its creation. As the successor of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), it has inherited a wide scope of trade issues to address. An ambitious agenda along with a lack of consensus, mainly between the developed and developing states, are the main reasons for a stalemate in negotiations within the flagship initiative, The Doha Round. The ineffectiveness of the talks has pushed numerous countries to seek regional cooperation, which further hampers multilateral negotiations. In this situation, it is high time to rethink the future shape of the WTO and its role in the world economy.

35416. Pulling the Rope: The Struggle between Official and Popular Islam in Egypt

Author:
Patrcyna Sasnal
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
As so often in the past after political upheavals, the state in Egypt is trying to get a strong grip on Islam. But it is only able to control the institutionalised element of the religion (“official” Islam), whereas the uncontrollable and fragmented form, “popular” Islam, meaning the real source of religious inspiration for people, is metamorphosing. The result of this process will not only determine the future agents of mass mobilisation but may also signal a broader social transformation in the Arab world in the long term.

35417. Governance of the Free Movement of EU Citizens: Weathering the Storm of Politicisation

Author:
Alex Lazarowicz
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Despite the limited mobility of EU citizens across the European Economic Area, let alone that of migrants, this cherished right has found itself at the centre of political debates in Europe. As illustrated by the key cases debated, and against the backdrop of a rise of populist solutions, one cannot expect a complete overhaul of the free movement framework. All in all, intra-EU mobility for EU citizens and migrants has not been changed as such, only certain provisions have been specified. To this end, bilateral cooperation between sending and receiving countries gains in importance. Cooperation between Norway and Poland, especially on integration, could help depoliticise the debate, and ensure the continued success of Polish workers in Norway.

35418. The Black Box of European Legislation: The Motivation (or Lack of It) behind Transparency in EU Policymaking

Author:
Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
One of the political ambitions of European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and his first vice-president, Frans Timmermans, is to push for more openness in European Union policymaking. However, the improvements they propose are substantially undermined by opaque decision-making procedures and the lack of consistency in EU institutional culture. The open-governance drive is also stymied by fears among the Member States that too much disclosure might diminish effective policymaking there. Yet, if the EU does not understand that it needs to present a unified approach to transparency vis-à-vis its citizens, it will never evolve into a genuine political union.

35419. Can Ukraine Mimic Poland’s Transition? The Limits of Its Latest Economic Changes

Author:
Sebastian Płóciennik
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Once again, Ukraine has a chance to transform its economic system and build a democratic capitalist one. It is tempting to say that Central European countries such as Poland in particular constitute a good pattern for Kyiv’s reforms. However, this time will be different in many respects, and simply re-running an older plan will not work.

35420. Neither “NATO’s Foreign Legion” Nor the “Donbass International Brigades:” (Where Are All the) Foreign Fighters in Ukraine?

Author:
Kacper Rękawek
Publication Date:
03-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The conflict in Ukraine continues to attract global attention. Moreover, foreigners are also involved in actual combat in the eastern part of the country. Russians, be they soldiers or volunteers, are the dominant foreign group in the war zone. Others, mostly Europeans, constitute neither “NATO’s foreign legion” nor the “Donbass international brigades,” as their numbers likely do not exceed 300 on either side of the conflict. Interestingly enough, many of these European foreign fighters share common ideological roots, i.e., anti-Americanism, anti-liberalism, extreme nationalism, fascination with authoritarianism, rejection of European integration, but these do not, however, stop them from taking opposing sides in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. They, as a group or as lone individuals, might constitute a threat to European security and must be closely monitored.

35421. Never Ending Crisis—Prospects for the Belarusian Economy

Author:
Anna Maria Dyner
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
During 2014, the Belarusian economy experienced serious problems, which were deepened by the crisis in Russia. Further deterioration of the economic situation in Russia and Belarus’ other trade partners such as Ukraine mean that 2015 could be much worse. That is why the Belarusian authorities need external financial support, although this need is still not forcing them to conduct structural reforms. Moreover, as presidential elections are planned for November, the president, Aliaksandr Lukashenka will traditionally try to postpone reforms and impose pro-social policies.

35422. Civil Society Networks in the EU Integration of Serbia

Author:
Bojan Elek, Ljiljana Ubovic, and Tomasz Żornaczuk
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Countries wishing to accede to the EU must involve civil society organisations (CSOs) actively in the process. In Serbia, in order to champion their effectiveness in cooperation with the government, the CSOs gathered in networks, and the three main, nationwide ones have proven to be of greatest relevance. The National Convention on the EU covers all 35 negotiation chapters, the Sectoral Civil Society Organisations group is involved in pre-accession funds distribution, while prEUgovor focuses exclusively on the hottest potato in the negotiations, which concerns chapters 23 and 24. Although in general terms the legal basis and good practices for such collaboration are established, more understanding of the government’s approach to the CSOs is needed in order to achieve visible benefits.

35423. Towards China’s Great Power Diplomacy under Xi Jinping

Author:
Justyna Szczudlik-Tatar
Publication Date:
04-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Under the fifth generation of leaders, a conceptual shift in China’s foreign policy is becoming abundantly apparent. Xi Jinping is more clearly jettisoning long-standing Deng Xiaoping’s foreign policy dictum of “hide and bide,” calling for big power diplomacy and a great revitalisation of the Chinese nation. This is not merely rhetoric. China is becoming more active in its closest neighbourhood and Asia, and is expanding its influence worldwide. Apart from coining new diplomatic catchphrases to win hearts and minds, China is establishing new institutions as an alternative to the Western-led global architecture, to reflect its ascendancy and normative power.

35424. Mobile EU Citizens or Migrants? Assessing the Polish Diaspora in Norway

Author:
Marta Stormowska
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Between 2004 and 2014, the number of Poles in Norway grew tenfold. Poles have become the biggest minority in Norway, bringing economic benefits for both countries but also social challenges. Whereas the effects of migration for sending and receiving countries differ, there are many areas in which cooperation could bring mutual benefits. Such cooperation based on the respect of the fundamental freedom of EU citizens’ free access to the labour market should lead to better integration of migrants. However, the biggest challenge in this respect lies in embracing the diversity of flows occurring within the free movement framework, ranging from short term stays to permanent settlements

35425. Poland’s Policy towards the Arctic: Key Areas and Priority Actions

Author:
Michal Łuszczuk, Piotr Graczyk, Adam Stępień, and Małgorzata Śmieszek
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Given the multidimensional transformation taking place in the Arctic, it is timely to redefine and develop Poland’s engagement in the region. Although Poland has neither vital nor direct political and economic interests in the Arctic, the state’s multi-faceted involvement in international cooperation in that region may improve national security as well as enhance Poland’s international standing, especially in the EU, European and transatlantic dimensions. A clearly defined and comprehensive Arctic policy should be the foundation for further Polish engagement in the region. How this policy should look may be determined on the basis of the previous achievements, current potential, and identification of key rationales and of the areas for future activities.

35426. Russia’s Use of History as a Political Weapon

Author:
Justyna Prus
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Russia’s use of history as a political weapon may have long term negative consequences. The manipulated narrative will be difficult to reverse and, could lead to an even more confrontational attitude towards immediate neighbours and the West. Western countries cannot remain passive. To counter Russian historical propaganda, they will have to adopt and effectively use the narrative based on truth and common values.

35427. Prospects for Polish–U.S. Defence Industrial Cooperation

Author:
Marcin Terlikowski and Anna Pochylska
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
With the decision to select Patriot as its next medium-range air and missile defence system, Poland is launching a programme considered the most important one out of the $35 billion Armed Forces Technical Modernisation Plan for the years 2013–2022. The sheer value of the contract ($4–6 bln), its strategic and operational significance, and the technologies involved, are all enough to make it a hot topic in popular debates. But this programme is special also because it involves a U.S. contractor, which will be responsible for providing key technologies. While Poland has long been gravitating towards closer defence political ties with the United States, it has also been particularly anxious with regards to defence cooperation with Washington, even despite the fact that the U.S. became the top importer of Polish defence materiel. To make the most out of the AMD selection, and any other possible programmes that may be won by a U.S. contractor, Poland should drop unrealistic or simply false assumptions regarding defence industrial cooperation with the U.S. and push the envelope of collaboration, wherever it is possible, while limiting its ambitions where they are exaggerated.

35428. Turkey’s Rise as a Reluctant Ally Faced with the Russian Threat

Author:
Pinar Elman
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
While actively contributing to NATO exercises and operations that confirm Turkey’s commitment to the Alliance, Ankara has also actively avoided cooperating with the Western political and economic efforts to curb Russian aggression in Ukraine. Turkey’s low-level involvement, shaped by security concerns, economic needs, yet at the same time its consolidating dependence on Moscow, and its optimistic opportunism, increasingly raise concerns about possible prospects of a Turkish pivot away from the Euro-Atlantic community. But even while distancing itself from NATO, it may be in Turkey’s interests to rebalance its policy by supporting the stability of Ukraine and closer cooperation with the EU.

35429. How the Crimean Tatars Spoil Putin’s Annexation Myth

Author:
Konrad Zasztowt and Justyna Prus
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The annexation of Crimea has been a propaganda gain for the Kremlin, helping to augment support for the ruling elites. However, the protests of minorities opposing the annexation—Crimean Tatars and Ukrainians—has prompted Russians to begin harsh repressions. On May 18, the Crimean Tatars commemorate the anniversary of the Stalinist deportation of their nation in 1944, which led to mass deaths among the deported population. Although the Crimean Tatars are a relatively small minority at the peninsula, they are politically well organised and will not accept the Kremlin’s praise of the Soviet (including Stalinist) era, or the current authoritarian system based on neo-imperial and neo-Soviet ideology.

35430. Back to the Difficult Past: Central and Eastern Europe’s Relationship with Russia

Author:
Anna Maria Dyner
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The revolution in Ukraine has shown that the difficult history of Central and Eastern Europe ended neither with the collapse of the Soviet Union, nor with the enlargement of the European Union to the east. Moreover, Russia's violent reaction in the form annexing Crimea and supporting separatists in Donbas has set in motion a number of political processes, which have not only shaken international relations in Central and Eastern Europe, but have also shown the countries in the region that stability in this part of Europe is not a given. Thus, these countries, the vast majority of which are members of the European Union and NATO, face a serious problem regarding the further evolution of relations with Russia, not only in the political or economic dimension, but also in the military sphere.

35431. Georgia after the Riga Eastern Partnership Summit

Author:
Konrad Zasztowt and Teona Turashvili
Publication Date:
05-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
With the Eastern Partnership summit in Riga set for 21–22 May, Georgia is seen as one of the most advanced EaP members in terms of adoption of European standards. The country is quite successful in terms of building a democratic and transparent state, which is both rare and sets an important precedent in the post-Soviet region. Still, such positive changes in Georgia are not irreversible, and many reforms are only at the initial stage. The EU should offer more support, and encourage the government in Tbilisi in reforming state institutions. Priority should be given to the justice sector, public administration, and local government in order to secure democratic governance and a fair political environment for further transformation. Moreover, the EU should also increase support for Georgia’s civil society, which is the most efficient “whistle-blower” in the event of bad practices such as corruption, cronyism or use of prosecutors and the judiciary against political opponents.

35432. Financing Climate Actions: Key to a Paris Agreement?

Author:
Marek Wąsiński
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
he Paris Climate Conference to be held in December may be the last chance to deliver a global agreement on tackling climate change. One issue that could be a game-changer for the negotiations and one that is inevitable to achieve global climate goals is so-called climate finance. The existing framework does not provide enough predictability and capacity to limit global warming to a maximum of 2°C. A clear mechanism for gathering public funds from developed countries and the inclusion of private investments is needed to secure reliable post-2020 climate actions.

35433. Ready to Go? ISIS and Its Presumed Expansion into Central Asia

Author:
Kacper Rękawek
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Although Central Asian states are vulnerable to the activities of radical Islamic organisations due to the weaknesses of their political and social systems—marked by authoritarianism, corruption, nepotism, and ethnic and religious tension, as well as their poor economic circumstances—interest in ISIS among their citizens remains low. These states so far also have not become an area of interest for ISIS, although that may change. When some people in these countries do leave for Syria and Iraq, their decision is not rooted just in poverty but also in social exclusion and poor religious education. At the same time, citizens of far more affluent and often far less authoritarian European and Middle Eastern countries travel in higher numbers to Syria to join ISIS. Nonetheless, a potential increase in the popularity of radical Islamist factions will not only be a problem for the five countries of the region, where the authorities will try to use the phenomenon to strengthen their special services and raise funds for border protection, but also for Russia, especially since people from Central Asia are mainly recruited to ISIS on Russian territory and traverse it to reach the battlefields. Russia, therefore, will continue to support its neighbours in the fight against such organisations by helping to strengthen border control, support for local special services and by CSTO Rapid Reaction Forces. The European Union and the United States should offer not only intelligence support and assistance in protecting these borders against this threat but also economic programmes and development assistance that can be used to decrease the factors that may contribute to the radicalisation of those living in Central Asia.

35434. Afghan National Army: Improved but Still in Need of Massive Support

Author:
Borta Górka-Winter
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
After more than a decade of international military assistance in Afghanistan, the newly created Afghan National Security Forces are still facing several daunting challenges, including the need to stabilise a still volatile security situation and sustain a sufficient level of manpower. The latter, in particular, may prove to be extremely difficult, as statistics show that the ranks of the Afghan National Army (ANA) are shrinking dramatically. On the one hand, many independent assessments show that the ANA has reached a high level of maturity and efficiency in combating the insurgency (as demonstrated by the ANA recently when parliament was attacked by the Taliban). Moreover, the armed forces also receive a level of social support unprecedented in the modern history of Afghanistan. On the other hand, the unstable political situation, a potential loss of financial support from donors, and the re-emergence of militias that, under the command of warlords, act as parallel security forces in Afghanistan, may result in the progressive disintegration of the ANA, depriving it of the strong mandate given to it by the Afghan population.

35435. Still a “Strategic” EU–NATO Partnership? Bridging Governance Challenges through Practical Cooperation

Author:
John Todd and Nina Graeger
Publication Date:
06-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The EU and NATO share a common interest in responding effectively to threats posed by Russia in the east and by Islamic extremist to the south of Europe. However, bilateral issues and the pursuit of national interests, especially those involving Cyprus and Turkey, as well as a general lack of strategic convergence have limited the effectiveness of both organisations’ crisis-management capabilities. In times of a deteriorating security environment these limitations will be even more detrimental for Euro-Atlantic security. Poland and Norway, participants in both the EU and NATO missions and two principal countries of the GoodGov project are well positioned to break this institutional deadlock.

35436. A Post-Crisis Eurozone: Still an Attractive Offer for Central Europe

Author:
Patryk Toporowski
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The economic crisis led the eurozone to become a more deeply integrated area. The redesign of its institutional architecture significantly changes the perception of the costs and benefits of the membership of the zone. In this regard, the Central and Eastern European countries (CEE) are reassessing the effects of eurozone accession, by reviewing the set of arguments for and against further integration. The overall result of this review is still in favour of further integration, but successful accession requires comprehensive preparations from the candidates.

35437. The Evolution of U.S. Immigration Policy: Implications for Poland

Author:
Piotr Plewa
Publication Date:
07-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Over the course of the last 50 years, migration to the United States has transformed from European to Latin American, and predominantly Mexican. Increased legal migration from Latin America has been coupled with increased unauthorised entries from the region. The major challenges facing U.S. policymakers concern their ability to prevent unauthorised entries and the repatriation or integration of those already in the country. With decreased legal and unauthorised immigration rates, Poland has lost the potential to affect U.S. migration policymaking. Hence, it is worthwhile to assess whether the limited benefits stemming from visa-free travel to the U.S. would justify the increase in invested political capital required to secure one of Poland’s traditional foreign policy goals.

35438. The YPG and the Changing Dynamics of the Fight against IS

Author:
Dylan O'Driscoll
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Recently, Turkey and the U.S. signed an agreement for Turkey to join the coalition’s fight against the Islamic State (IS, a.k.a. ISIS/ISIL). As part of this agreement an IS-free zone will be created in Syria, but it is not clear yet whether this will encroach on the territory of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the main Kurdish armed group operating in Syria. The YPG has been one of the most successful forces on the ground in the fight against IS and despite the changing dynamics it still remains important. However, Turkey’s entry into the battle will lead to every aspect of the YPG being reassessed, as Turkey deems it to be a terrorist organisation. Nonetheless, the YPG still has a significant role to play and abandoning it now could lead to the situation in Syria becoming even more complex.

35439. The Limits and Achievements of Regional Governance in Security: NORDEFCO and the V4

Author:
Marcin Terlikowski and Pernille Rieker
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Recently, Turkey and the U.S. signed an agreement for Turkey to join the coalition’s fight against the Islamic State (IS, a.k.a. ISIS/ISIL). As part of this agreement an IS-free zone will be created in Syria, but it is not clear yet whether this will encroach on the territory of the People’s Protection Units (YPG), the main Kurdish armed group operating in Syria. The YPG has been one of the most successful forces on the ground in the fight against IS and despite the changing dynamics it still remains important. However, Turkey’s entry into the battle will lead to every aspect of the YPG being reassessed, as Turkey deems it to be a terrorist organisation. Nonetheless, the YPG still has a significant role to play and abandoning it now could lead to the situation in Syria becoming even more complex.

35440. Not Really a Coalition: The U.S.–Turkey Deal on the Fight against the Islamic State

Author:
Pinar Elman
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Turkey’s decision to open Incirlik airbase to the anti-IS coalition could offer a significant advantage in the fight against the Islamic State, including cutting it off from outside supplies, and changing the regional parameters. However, statements from the U.S. and Turkey still contradict each other, and their divergent priorities could hamper their operational capacity. Turkey’s contribution to the coalition may potentially reduce cooperation between the U.S. and the Syrian Democratic Union Party (PYD) in the anti-IS zone. In addition, the absence of a ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) and the domestic polarisation provide a permissible environment for potential provocations that may escalate the violence in Turkey, potentially diminishing its contribution. The U.S. and Turkey still have to overcome their differences in order to become effective coalition partners

35441. Foreigners in the Ukrainian Government: A Unique Solution for Challenging Times

Author:
Konrad Zasztowt
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Although it happens rarely, national governments, including those of EU countries, do sometimes hire foreign experts. In Ukraine, employing Georgians from former president Mikheil Saakashvili’s administration seems to be a logical move. His presidency’s biggest successes were the establishment of well-functioning police and an efficient fight against corruption, something both of which Ukraine badly needs. Other foreigners, including renowned experts such as Ukrainian American Natalie Jaresko and Lithuanian Aivaras Abromavičius, responsible for economic recovery, may be successful but face extremely difficult tasks. As all these figures are affiliated with the West in one way or another, their failure would be interpreted by pro-Kremlin media as a collapse of President Petro Poroshenko’s policies (perceived by Russia as a Western project).
Topic:
Corruption, Politics, Governance, Self Determination, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Ukraine

35442. The EU’s New Climate Target: Contribution to a Successful Deal in Paris

Author:
Susanne Droge, Thomas Spencer, Alexandra Deprez, Liz Gallagher, Artur Gradziuk, Andrei Marcu, and Sebastian Oberthur
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Prior to the Paris Climate Conference each country is to submit an Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) – a vision of the country’s efforts to tackle climate change. The EU’s submission is very clear in its goal to reduce greenhouse gases emissions by 40% by 2030, but it leaves room for defining precisely how the Union plans to achieve this target. The European INDC also lacks specifics on the adaptation and climate finance, thus putting at risk the EU’s ability to build a more ambitious coalition in support of the Paris Agreement. Also important for the Union is to hammer out plans for adjusting its domestic policy processes to regular five-year review cycles.
Topic:
Climate Change, Treaties and Agreements, Budget, and European Union
Political Geography:
Global Focus

35443. Aid Coordination in Moldova: Politics Killing Policy

Author:
Victoria Bucătaru
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Leading up to the formation of Moldova’s third government since elections a year ago, Chisinau faces not only political and macro-financial instability, but also suffers from a severe trust deficit in relations with external partners, some of which have suspended aid flows this year. If Moldova was once the most advanced Eastern Partnership state in terms of aid coordination, government ownership of the process has significantly weakened as a result of the protracted political crisis. Although donors continue to cooperate among themselves via well-established channels, participation by state institutions is currently limited. Once the political setting is stabilised, the government will need to go to great lengths to regain the trust of its external partners and re-establish donor coordination. This is fundamental if Moldova is to make the best use of assistance in order to recover its finances quickly.
Topic:
Economics, Politics, Governance, and Elections

35444. The Silence of the Guns: Can the Cease-Fire in Donbass Last?

Author:
Stanislav Secrieru
Publication Date:
11-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
For the first time since the outbreak of the war in Donbass, the situation on the frontline is nearly a proper cease-fire. This is the outcome of the interplay of three factors: the political-military balance in Donbass, sanctions and Russia’s military intervention in Syria. Nevertheless, it is premature to assume that military options in Donbass are no longer in the cards. Russia is likely to use force if needed to repel a Ukrainian attempt to retake parts of the area, to obstruct the Minsk process if it goes in a disadvantageous direction for Moscow, or to seize more territory if there is further political and social turmoil in Ukraine. To minimize the risks of an eruption of violence in Donbass, the EU and U.S. should prolong the sanctions, fine-tune the diplomatic pressure on both sides to implement and uphold the Minsk Protocols, and pay more attention to the political and economic transformations in the rest of Ukraine.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Defense Policy, Politics, Military Strategy, and Sanctions
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

35445. Momentum Not to Be Wasted: Aid Coordination in Post-Revolutionary Ukraine

Author:
Anita Sobjak
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Since the Euromaidan revolution, Ukraine has seen an unprecedented boom in external assistance in support of reforms, which needs to be synchronised appropriately in order to be effective. Although most of the structures and mechanisms for aid coordination have been conceived, they still need to be set in motion, and this requires time. For the system to be functional, the donors should improve coordination at a planning stage (especially those large donors with strict development agendas), while the Ukrainian government has to enhance its capacities for implementation of the reform as a matter of urgency. The present set of 18 reform priorities also needs to be narrowed down further, to focus on the most urgent needs.
Topic:
Development, Politics, Governance, and Reform
Political Geography:
Ukraine

35446. The Best of Both Worlds: The Unexploited Potential of Inter-parliamentary Cooperation in the EU

Author:
Karolina Borońska-Hryniewiecka
Publication Date:
08-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
During his first visit to Warsaw after re-election as prime minister of the UK, David Cameron found an ally in support of one of his ideas to reform the EU. Rafał Trzaskowski, the Polish minister for Europe, speaking on behalf of the Polish government, officially endorsed the British position to strengthen national parliaments in EU policymaking. Yet, the proposals to date either require treaty changes or are merely technical adjustments. In fact, much more could be achieved by enhancing the mechanisms of inter-parliamentary cooperation within the existing scope of the treaties. Although this would play very well with the current institutional climate of better regulation and more transparency, it also requires a genuine political will on the side of EU institutions and Member States, which seem to be the missing link.
Topic:
Politics, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and European Union
Political Geography:
United Kingdom and Europe

35447. Border and Migration Management in the East: The Cases of Norway and Poland

Author:
Kinga Dudzińska, Jakub Godzimirski, and Roderick Parkes
Publication Date:
09-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The migration and refugee situation in Eastern Europe receives comparatively little attention in the EU for a simple reason: the people displaced by the fighting in eastern Ukraine have tended to stay close to home or travel to Russia rather than head to the European Union. But eastern migration deserves attention. Migration issues, including questions of population loss, diaspora loyalty and border management, are gaining real geopolitical significance across Eastern Europe. Moreover, the EU’s technocratic efforts to leverage access to its labour markets in return for political reform in Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia are becoming increasingly politicised there. This paper therefore sets out some basic data on the issue. It takes as its case studies the receiving countries Norway and Poland, both located at the external border of the EU, EEA and Schengen zone and next to Russia, and pays special attention to the question of border management, including small border traffic and migration control, looking particularly at the gender dimension of migration.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Politics, and Refugee Issues
Political Geography:
Ukraine and Eastern Europe

35448. Azerbaijan’s Risky Game between Russia and the West

Author:
Kamran Ismayilov and Konrad Zasztowt
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Azerbaijan recently had to face a wave of criticism from the European institutions (the OSCE and the European Parliament) due to its government’s undemocratic practices. In response, Baku accused its European partners of Islamophobia and declared the suspension of parliamentary cooperation in the framework of the EU’s Euronest. The Azerbaijani ruling elite also blames the West of supporting a “fifth column” in Azerbaijan (meaning civil society organisations) as well as of giving political support to its arch-enemy Armenia in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. At the same time authorities in Baku are displaying their developing political partnership with Russia. This paper examines the consequences of the crisis in relations between the EU and Azerbaijan and Azerbaijani-Russian rapprochement for the prospects for EU-Azerbaijan energy projects and regional security in the South Caucasus.
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, Security, Civil Society, Politics, and Governance
Political Geography:
Russia and Azerbaijan

35449. AKP Snap Election Tactics: Turmoil in Turkey

Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
Following the 2015 national election in Turkey the AKP, for the first time since coming to power in 2002, failed to win enough votes to form a majority government. Since the election the AKP has given the impression that it is attempting to form a coalition government, but in reality the party has been employing a number of tactics in order to increase its share of the vote in preparation for a snap election. These tactics have mainly revolved around increasing the nationalist vote and damaging the main Kurdish party. However, these manoeuvres have increased polarisation in Turkey and have resulted in an escalation of the conflict with the Kurds. Worryingly, it has become evident that the AKP aims to win power in the next election at all costs.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Politics, Governance, and Elections
Political Geography:
Turkey

35450. EU-India Strategic Partnership Needs a Reality Check

Author:
Patryk Kuglel
Publication Date:
10-2015
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The EU-India Strategic Partnership launched in 2004 has made only modest achievements and needs a thorough rethink. Both sides must reset cooperation and base it on a more realistic footing centred on common interests, such as economic cooperation, global governance, development cooperation, and defence. The resumption of free trade negotiations, the organisation of a long overdue bilateral summit, and more frank dialogue on contentious issues is necessary in order to utilise the partnership’s potential. Poland may use this strategic drift to revitalise bilateral cooperation and play a more active role in reviving EU-India dialogue.
Topic:
Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, Bilateral Relations, and Governance
Political Geography:
Europe and India