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  • Author: Roland Marchal
  • Publication Date: 09-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
  • Abstract: The peace agreements that were signed in May 2004 may imply the end of the war in South Sudan. In order to assess the likelihood of success, one has to discuss the changes after the Islamists were brought to power in 1989 by a military coup. Of special interest are the impacts of their internal divisions, the emergence of oil money as significant revenues for the State and the consequences of 9/11 in the Middle East. Moreover, difficulties to implement the agreements in South Sudan should not be underplayed. The underdevelopment of this region, the existence of militias still supported by Khartoum and the history of the civil war among Southern Sudanese could give room to bitter divisions and proxy wars involving Khartoum's government. The current crisis in Darfur reflects the weaknesses of the peace process despite a strong international involvement. Structural issues such as citizenship have not been addressed and this very crisis shows how little the regime intends to reform itself.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: Africa, Middle East, South Sudan
  • Author: Diana Hochraich
  • Publication Date: 07-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
  • Abstract: Since their economic development got under way, the ASEAN countries - which essentially manufacture labour-intensive products - have been marked by strong regional integration brought about by the segmentation of the production process engaged in by Japanese companies. In these countries, successive relocations resulted in de facto economic integration at a time when various political groupings intent on blocking the development of communism were also emerging. Since joining the WTO, China - the world's workshop - has become the hub for trade with the developed countries. In the face of such competition, the ASEAN countries will have to show their capacity to maintain their position in the value chain represented by the production of all of the Asian countries.
  • Topic: Economics, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: François d'Arcy
  • Publication Date: 07-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
  • Abstract: This study, which examines the chances of success of the government of Luiz Ináci Lula da Silva, takes as its starting point the idea that the main obstacle resides in the structure of the Brazilian political system. Being unable to reform that system, President Lula has skilfully adapted to it, but not without having to forge certain unusual alliances. He has, nevertheless, honoured the campaign promises which brought him to power after three unsuccessful attempts in a row, maintaining anti-inflationary policies and strict budgetary discipline, and respecting commitments given concerning public debt and privatised companies. This macroeconomic policy – which follows on from that of Fernando Henrique Cardoso – dominated his government's first year in office, slowing the implementation of new policies addressing social issues and sustainable development. So far, the latter policies would appear to point more to continuity than to radical change, a fact which will, doubtless, contribute greatly to their success.
  • Topic: Economics, Government, Politics
  • Political Geography: Brazil, South America
  • Author: Matthieu Salomon
  • Publication Date: 05-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
  • Abstract: Since the 1980s – and, more symbolically, since the 6th Communist party Congress - Vietnam has been engaged in reform, which is referred to as "dôi moi", i.e. renewal. While their aim is, first and foremost, to change the rules governing economic activity, these reforms have, since the 1990s, also been associated with political, institutional and legal change. Influenced, on the one hand, by endogenous constraints arising out of the necessary adaptation of the politico-legal environment and of the evolution of the power-legitimation processes and, on the other hand, by exogenous constraints born of the desire for integration into the international community and economy, the discourse of the Vietnamese authorities and the country's fundamental political texts have both been modified. It seems undeniable that, despite its weightiness and areas of permanence, the Vietnamese politico-legal system is, de facto, slowly evolving and becoming "normalised". The intention here is not to suggest that Vietnam is undergoing a "democratic transition" bringing it closer to a western model of reference. The aim of the regime may be defined thus: "to consolidate the single-party system while satisfying the demands for modernisation". By means of an analysis of the system of people's assemblies elected by the population and of the legal - i.e. juridical and judicial - system, this study attempts to provide an insight into the regime's capacity for politico-legal innovation and, notably, into its capacity to structure new arenas for debate. It examines the complex evolutions which have affected the rules and players of this too-often-neglected aspect of a changing Vietnam.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: Southeast Asia
  • Author: Florence Padovani
  • Publication Date: 04-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
  • Abstract: The study of the population movements caused by the major Chinese hydraulic projects reveals the true extent of the change which has come about in relations between the State and society in China. The construction of the Three Gorges dam-which led to considerable controversy both within China and beyond - is a prime case in point.
  • Topic: Civil Society, Development, Politics
  • Political Geography: China, Asia
  • Author: Anastassios Anastassiadis
  • Publication Date: 01-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
  • Abstract: This article addresses the sensitive question of Church-State relations in Greece. Recent studies have suggested that the Greek Church's discourse was plainly incompatible with modern conceptions of liberal democracy. Populism and nationalism have been the two theoretical concepts used in relation with the Church. Discourse analysis based on public declarations of Church officials has been the main methodological tool. The Greek identity cards' crisis of the nineties has been its testing ground. Through an analysis of this "crisis" this article intends to show that these methods can offer only very limited perspectives of understanding the process for two main reasons. First, they show little interest for sociological analysis and especially for the internal functioning of the Church. Second, discourses are one outcome of the actors' strategies but have to be deciphered and not taken for granted. Analysts disregard one of the main presuppositions of semantics theory: discourses are produced within a specific socio-historical context and according to certain prefabricated schemes. This dual pattern of production allows for continuity as well as for change. Thus, this article also argues that a Church's conservative discourse may be closely related to the efforts of certain actors within this institution to renovate it. While refuting the "clash of civilizations" thesis, this article finally intends to suggest that the renewed interest for religion in general and orthodoxy in particular due to this thesis should be put to use by researchers in order to acquire new and more comprehensive socio-historical accounts of the Greek Church.
  • Topic: Democratization, Development, Religion
  • Political Geography: Europe, Greece
  • Author: Loretta Bondi
  • Publication Date: 07-2004
  • Content Type: Policy Brief
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: We discuss initiatives that the League of Arab States and US allies and partners have put on the table to foster reform, change, and security in the Middle East. These initiatives have met both support and skepticism before and after they were formally launched at the summit of the League (Tunis, May 2004), and during the summits of the G8, US/EU, and NATO taking place the following month. We assess these developments with the League of Arab States Secretary General Amre Moussa, and Marina Ottaway, Senior Associate and Co-Director of the Rule of Law and Democracy Project at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. The CTR conducted these two interviews separately by telephone from The Hague, and in Washington, DC, in July 2004.
  • Topic: Security, Peace Studies
  • Political Geography: United States, Middle East, Arabia
  • Author: Roberto Aliboni
  • Publication Date: 01-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: The Ministers of Foreign Affairs of the Euro-Mediterranean Partnership (EMP) held their annual meeting in Naples on December 2-3, 2003. The Naples conference was the sixth in the series of such meetings since the founding conference of the partnership, which took place in Barcelona in November 1995. With an annual budget of €1 billion, the EMP is a process of “multi-bilateral” cooperation in the political and security; economic and financial; and social and cultural areas. It involves the European Union (EU), and Cyprus, Israel, Malta, Turkey, as well as seven Mediterranean Arab countries (Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Morocco, Syria, and Tunisia) and the Palestinian National Authority. In Naples, the Ministers delivered only general declarations regarding contentious issues such as the situation in Iraq, the Israeli-Palestinian road map, and international terrorism. Predictable and incremental as it was, progress was nevertheless achieved on three main “baskets” of the partnership agenda.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Regional Cooperation
  • Political Geography: United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Egypt, Cyprus
  • Author: Jeffrey P. Bialos, Stuart L. Koehl
  • Publication Date: 01-2004
  • Content Type: Special Report
  • Institution: Center for Transatlantic Relations
  • Abstract: At the end of the day, missile defense is and should be here to stay as a key element of U.S., and in all likelihood, European defense strategy for the twenty-first century. The threats are real and there is an emerging consensus about creating defenses against it. While the “macro” issues of ABM withdrawal and initial fielding of the U.S. midcourse segment are behind us, there are very legitimate issues that warrant debate on both sides of the Atlantic. We now need to focus on making the right choices to provide a better balance of capabilities between various strategic, regional, force protection, and homeland security needs. Moreover, U.S.-European engagement on missile defense is potentially, but not inevitably, a win-win proposition—binding alliance partners together geo-politically, creating a layered, multi-national plug and play “system of system” architecture, and enhancing our ability to fight wars together. And, an enhanced coalition war fighting capability is likely to have beneficial spillover effects on the broader Transatlantic relationship; it is axiomatic that countries that fight wars together tend to have congruent interests in a range of areas. But for this to happen, Europe needs to begin to seriously consider its missile defense needs soon and apply resources to the task and the United States needs to resolve the underlying technology transfer issues and questions of roles and responsibilities. Thus, with hard work and good will, multi-national cooperation between the United States and its allies offers “win-win” from the standpoint of strengthening the alliance and our mutual security.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Nuclear Weapons, Military Strategy, Weapons , Missile Defense
  • Political Geography: United States, China, Europe
  • Author: Jeffrey O. Isima, Chris Ferguson
  • Publication Date: 01-2004
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Global Facilitation Network for Security Sector Reform
  • Abstract: Security Sector Reform has continued to emerge as a powerful organising force among international actors dedicated to conflict prevention and poverty reduction. As the broader strands of the SSR concept are becoming increasingly recognisable and understood it will be important to emphasise that effective SSR implementation requires a balanced approach across the whole security sector.
  • Topic: Security, Development, Human Rights
  • Political Geography: Africa