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38702. The Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership:European Disintegration, Unemployment and Instability
- Author:
- Jeronim Capaldo
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Development and Environment Institute at Tufts University
- Abstract:
- According to its proponents, the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership will stimulate growth in Europe and in the US. Projections endorsed by the European Commission point to positive, although negligible, gains in terms of GDP and personal incomes. In a paradox, these projections also show that any gains in Trans-Atlantic trade would happen at the expense of intra-EU trade reversing the process of European economic integration. Furthermore, recent literature has pointed out several problems in the most influential assessment of the TTIP's effects. Projections by different institutions have been shown to rely on the same Computable General Equilibrium model that has proven inadequate as a tool for trade policy analysis. In this paper we assess the effects of TTIP using the United Nations Global Policy Model, which incorporates more sensible assumptions on macroeconomic adjustment, employment dynamics, and global trade. We project that TTIP will lead to a contraction of GDP, personal incomes and employment. We also project an increase in financial instability and a continuing downward trend in the labor share of GDP. Evaluated with the United Nations model, TTIP appears to favor economic dis-integration, rather than integration, in Europe. At a minimum, this shows that official studies do not offer a solid basis for an informed decision on TTIP.
- Topic:
- Economics, Globalization, International Trade and Finance, and Labor Issues
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and United Nations
38703. New Report Examines East Africa and the Intergovernmental Authority on Development
- Author:
- Solomon Dersso
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), composed of Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, and Uganda with its secretariat headquartered in Djibouti, covers northeast Africa, a region continuing to experience major changes, arguably more than any other part of the continent. This is the only region of Africa where colonially drawn borders have been redrawn. In contrast to other regions of Africa, this is also where the prospect of further redrawing of borders—with Somaliland seeking international recognition as a separate state—remains a real possibility.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Security, Development, Economics, Environment, Regional Cooperation, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- Uganda, Kenya, Africa, Sudan, Ethiopia, Somalia, and South Sudan
38704. Improving UN Capacity for Rapid Deployment
- Author:
- H. Peter Langille
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Peace Institute
- Abstract:
- Rapid deployment of large peace operations into conflict zones worldwide is a demanding process. Within the United Nations system, the process is further complicated and frequently delayed by a long list of tasks, including the need to seek the support of member states for the deployment of their national personnel and resources. Yet, rapid deployment remains an important standard with specified response times and an objective that underpins many related reforms.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Humanitarian Aid, International Cooperation, Peacekeeping, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United Nations
38705. A Blueprint for a Comprehensive US Counterterrorism Strategy in Yemen
- Author:
- Danya Greenfield and Barbara K. Bodine
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- With the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) and the explosion of violent conflicts from Tripoli to Gaza, the Middle East is looking more unstable and unpredictable than ever. While the focus in Washington is centered on jihadist extremists in Iraq and Syria at present, the threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) against the United States continues. Top al-Qaeda leadership in Yemen is hailing the territorial gains of ISIS in Iraq, and some al-Qaeda operatives are imitating ISIS' techniques such as public slaughters of those deemed infidels, prompting fears of cooperation between two of the most active Islamist militant networks. Recent aggression by the Houthi movement, a Zaydi Shia rebel militia, against state institutions and tribal opponents has opened a new front of instability and security vacuum that AQAP is all too ready to exploit. Inattention to the interconnected nature of tribal conflict, terrorist activity, poor governance, economic grievances and citizen discontent is proving to be a dangerous combination for both Yemen and the United States. The Yemeni context may seem far from the current focus on Baghdad and Damascus, but getting the US strategy right in Yemen will have consequences for regional stability and core US interests throughout the Arabian Peninsula and beyond.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Economics, Terrorism, Foreign Aid, Labor Issues, and Reform
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Arabia, and Syria
38706. Reforming Tunisia's Troubled Security Sector
- Author:
- Bassem Bouguerra
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The December 2010 self-immolation of twenty-six-year-old itinerant fruit vendor Mohamed Bouazizi sparked popular protests in Tunisia that rippled throughout the Arab world. Like so many of Tunisia's youth, Bouazizi felt disenfranchised by the Zine El-Abidine Ben Ali regime. For over twenty-three years, a corrupt security apparatus allowed Ben Ali to rule the country with an iron fist. The public avoided criticizing the regime or even mentioning Ben Ali's name for fear of reprisal. During the Tunisian revolution, protesters demonstrated their anger at the security institutions that perpetuated the regime's hold on power by attacking police stations. With the fall of the regime, Tunisians began to publicly voice their opinions on previously forbidden issues such as politics, corruption, and police abuse.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention and Reform
- Political Geography:
- Arabia and Tunisia
38707. Do Drone Strikes in Yemen Undermine US Security Objectives?
- Author:
- Danya Greenfield and Stefanie A. Hausheer
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- In a May 2013 speech outlining his counterterrorism policy and addressing the use of drone strikes, President Barack Obama insisted that the United States uses the "highest standard" of criteria when selecting targets. The United States, the president said, only strikes "terrorists who pose a continuing and imminent threat to the American people...and before any strike is taken, there must be near-certainty that no civilians will be killed or injured." More than a year later, the administration seems to continue brazenly violating its own standards while also failing to fulfill its pledge to increase transparency and oversight with respect to the use of drone strikes. The administration has yet to explain how strikes such as the December 2013 attack on a wedding convoy in Yemen, which resulted in fourteen deaths and twenty-two injuries, could possibly fall within the guidelines laid out in the president's speech. US drone strikes in Afghanistan, Pakistan, and elsewhere raise similar questions.
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, and United States
38708. Diplomacy for a Diffuse World
- Author:
- Peter Engelke, Roxanne Cabral, Katherine Brown, and Anne Terman Wedner
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Globalization, urbanization, and fragmentation are reshaping the world order by diffusing power throughout the global system. In order to remain relevant, American diplomacy will require a fundamental retooling that includes a more deliberate and serious engagement with novel forces and actors. America's leaders must recognize that these forces and actors not only are buffeting foreign nations but also are at work within the United States itself, strengthening the capabilities of American cities, communities, individuals, and networks to reach beyond US borders. Building a stronger partnership between the federal government's diplomatic community and these nonstate actors will enhance America's leadership and standing around the world.
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
38709. ISIS War Game: The Coming Stalemate
- Author:
- Bilal Y. Saab and Michael S. Tyson
- Publication Date:
- 10-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- On September 10, 2014, President Barack Obama delivered a speech outlining the administration's strategy to "degrade and ultimately destroy" the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham, also known as ISIS. Achieving success requires four key elements, Obama said: a systematic campaign of airstrikes, increased support to allied forces fighting ISIS on the ground, robust counterterrorism to prevent ISIS attacks against the West including the US homeland, and continued provision of humanitarian assistance to innocent civilians. Airstrikes against ISIS targets in Iraq and recently in Syria have supported the first, third, and fourth elements of this strategy.
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iraq
38710. Democratized Destruction: Global Security in the Hacker Era
- Author:
- James Hasik and Mark Revor
- Publication Date:
- 09-2014
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The democratized innovations of today's hacker era have a dark side: democratized destruction, underwritten by advanced information technologies, and spread by highly empowered individuals with very undemocratic intent. The breadth, pace, diffusion, and potential for concealment of these advances may be creating new vulnerabilities for the same technologically advanced societies that spawned them. Fortunately, the United States and its allies have substantial experience with this mode of innovation and unique resources for developing countermeasures. In "Democratized Destruction: Global Security in the Hacker Era," Brent Scowcroft Center for International Security Nonresident Senior Fellow James Hasik and Lieutenant Colonel Mark Revor, a 2013-2014 Marine Corps fellow at the Atlantic Council, recommend three courses of action: leveraging capital investments with low marginal cost extensions; monitoring the global progress of open innovation; and supporting domestic grassroots developments in information-intensive systems.