Journal: - CIAO Search Results

35501. CORRUPTION RISK ASSESSMENT IN THE SECURITY SECTOR OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Author:: Armin Kržalić
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Centre for Security Studies
Abstract:: Corruption risk assessment in the security sector of Bosnia and Herzegovina is the original work of authorship by a research team of the Centre for Security Studies which consisted of Denis Hadžović, project manager, Alma Kovačević, project coordinator, Aida Kržalić, project assistant, and surveyors Mirela Hodović, Emsad Dizdarević, Sabrina Berberović–Tadić and Sanjin Hamidičević. The assessment is one of the results of the „Mapping Corruption Risks in the Security Sector“ project which the CSS implemented during the period between December 2013 and August 2015. The Project was funded by the European Union.
Topic:: National Security
Political Geography:: Bosnia and Herzegovina

35502. In Policy in the Post Crisis Era

Author:: Vinod K Aggarwal
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Berkeley APEC Study Center
Abstract:: In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis of 2007- 08, observers of international markets disagreed about the likely response of the World Trade Organization.1 Pointing to a contraction of global trade flows by 9 percent in 2009, some commentators suggested that the WTO’s rules were incapable of stemming a tide of increasing protectionism.2 Still, others cautioned that overzealous regulation of national industrial policies by the WTO would limit distressed governments’ ability to cope. Who was right?
Topic:: International Affairs
Political Geography:: Global Focus

35503. Amérique latine - L’année politique 2015

Author:: Maya Collombon, Hélène Combes, Olivier Dabène, Gaspard Estrada, Marie-Laure Geoffray, Ana Carolina González Espinosa, Erica Guevara, Damien Larrouqué, Marilde Loiola de Menezes, Frédéric Louault, Frédéric Massé, Mohcine Mounjid, Eduardo Rios, and Darío Rodriguez
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: Amérique latine - L’Année politique is a publication by CERI-Sciences Po’s Political Observatory of Latin America and the Caribbean (OPALC). The study extends the work presented on the Observatory’s website (www.sciencespo.fr/opalc) by offering tools for understanding a continent that is in the grip of deep transformations.
Topic:: Political Violence, Economics, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Sociology, and Elections
Political Geography:: Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Cuba, Arab Countries, Latin America, Nicaragua, Caribbean, Venezuela, Mexico, and United States of America

35504. Une puissance parmi d'autres : évolution des enjeux et défis géostratégiques de la France en Océanie (One Among Many: Changing Geostrategic Interests and Challenges for France in the South Pacific)

Author:: Denise Fisher
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: France, which is both an external and resident South Pacific power by virtue of its possessions there, pursues, or simply inherits, multiple strategic benefits. But the strategic context has changed in recent years. China's increased presence; consequent changes in the engagement of the US, Japan and Taiwan; and the involvement of other players in the global search for resources, means that France is one of many more with influence and interests in a region considered by some as a backwater. These shifts in a way heighten the value of France's strategic returns, while impacting on France's capacity to exert influence and pursue its own objectives in the region. At the same time, France is dealing with demands for greater autonomy and even independence from its two most valuable overseas possessions on which its influence is based, New Caledonia and French Polynesia. How it responds to these demands will directly shape the nature of its future regional presence, which is a strategic asset.
Topic:: Political Economy, Natural Resources, Colonialism, Political Science, and Decolonization
Political Geography:: Japan, China, Taiwan, France, Australia, Australia/Pacific, and United States of America

35505. Exposition industrielle, production de réseaux et construction d’imaginaires : la Foire internationale du Müsiad et les représentations de l’Etat turc (Industrial Exhibition, Network Production and Construction of Imaginaries : the International Müsiad Fair and Representations of the Turkish State )

Author:: Dilek Yankaya
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Case Study
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: Müsiad International Fair held in Istanbul in 2014 aroused great public interest due to the strong presence of political elites as well as to the mobilization of a large network of institutions, firms and media partners. International exhibitions are relevant fields to explore the formation of trade circuits and the creation of sociabilities, as well as to question the political and international issues central to the construction of trade networks and markets. This event appears as the representation of the Turkish state as it is formed under the AKP power. We witness a double trend of reconfiguration and of internationalization of the state constituting processes through the phenomena of increased interactions between private enterprise and public action on one side and the shrinkage of patronage networks on the other. Participating to this event therefore becomes a question of legitimization and delegitimization for private actors regarding these networks of power, the production of which is based on the presentation of economic and industrial productions and goes together with the creation of Imaginaries. The ethnographic study of the fair shows how industrial, cultural and symbolic representations bring about the production of two types of Imaginary, one related to the reinvention of the idea of the ummah across merchant networks and the other referring to the supremacy of Turkey as the carrier of this project.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Sociology, Political Science, Networks, State, and Ethnography
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Asia, and Istanbul

35506. L’insécurité énergétique en Amérique du Sud : développement des réseaux et intégration sectorielle entre le Pérou et le Chili (Energy Insecurity in South America : Network Development and Sectoral Integration in Chile and Peru)

Author:: Alvaro Artigas
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: The South American continent has experienced a robust economic growth presently overshadowed by an uneven energy integration that fails to meet both an ever-growing industrial and metropolitan demand. Several integration mechanisms co-exist, but a poor integration layout threatens the energy security of the region and individual countries. Several factors contribute to this. Firstly, the very template of regional integration has failed to deliver a valid set of supranational coordination mechanisms aimed at coordinating and sorting out disputes among individual countries. Secondly, national States tie security to self-sufficiency in the face of mutual distrust, thus rendering potential advantages of market and networks integration a less desirable choice. The example of Chile and Peru integration drive reveals many of these dynamics while showing at the same time the windfalls of a transversal sectoral coordination over diplomatic exchange by individual states. What is the potential for an alternative template where the State will play a less intrusive role while consigning territorial disagreements backstage?
Topic:: Economics, International Trade and Finance, Political Economy, Natural Resources, and Regional Integration
Political Geography:: South America, Latin America, Chile, and Peru

35507. Relations informelles entre Pékin et Taipei : l’essor de la diplomatie académique dans le détroit de Taiwan (Informal Relations Between Beijing and Taipei: The Expansion of Academic Diplomacy in the Taiwan Strait)

Author:: Alice Ekman
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: Since the Kuomintang returned to power in 2008, Beijing has adjusted its communication strategy towards Taiwan, while maintaining the same long-term goal of reunification. This strategy of rapprochement by seduction rather than by threat promotes the rapid growth of exchanges between the Chinese and Taiwanese populations at all levels: students, tourists, farmers, businessmen, academics, retired diplomats and military, politicians, etc. Especially, the multiplication of meetings between academics of both countries is creating new channels of communication over the Strait, allowing on the one hand to compensate for the lack of formal diplomacy between Beijing and Taipei, and on the other hand to compete with informal diplomatic links existing between Taiwan and several of its partners (US and Japan, mainly). These communication channels could ultimately reinforce Beijing’s strategy – and China keeps investing heavily in their development – but could also be used as a conduit to prevent and to manage crisis would tensions reappear in the Strait.
Topic:: Nationalism, Sovereignty, Borders, Identities, and State
Political Geography:: China, Taiwan, and Asia

35508. Entre européanisation et fragmentation, quel modèle de développement pour le territoire ukrainien? (Between Europeanization and fragmentation, what model of development for the Ukrainian territory?)

Author:: Gilles Lepesant
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: One week before the third Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius on November 28-29, 2013, Ukraine suspended the preparation of an association agreement with the European Union, which had been under negotiation since 2007. When the agreement was finally signed in June 2014, President Yanukovych had fled the country under people’s pressure, and the integrity of Ukraine was challenged in the East by separatists and their Russian allies. These events came paradoxically at a time when the country's cohesion seemed stronger than in the 1990s. Far from being divided into two parts, Ukraine consists of the pieces of broken empires that all have good reasons to join in the state, as recent as this one may be. Indeed, its geography, electoral or economic, does not show a split between two blocks, but various lines of division that do not necessarily herald the breaking up of the state. Since the independence, this diversity had never been translated into new institutions: for several reasons, the reshaping of the centralized regime inherited from the Soviet era was deemed untimely by the country’s political forces. Presented as a priority by the members of the Parliament elected in 2014, the reform of territorial government is being implemented while Ukraine’s driving regions are either paralyzed or threatened by war.
Topic:: Nationalism, Sovereignty, War, Territorial Disputes, Europeanization, Memory, Borders, and State
Political Geography:: Russia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, Central Europe, and European Union

35509. La pérennité du supranationalisme intergouvernemental, paradoxe de l’élargissement (The “Enlargement paradox”: Intergovernmental Supranationalism Survives despite the Winds of Change)

Author:: Tanja Mayrgündter
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:: In the last decade, the EU has been challenged by major phenomena, such as the entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty and the economic and financial crisis. Unlike other policy areas, where the logic of action and institutional interplays have consequently changed, enlargement constitutes a “paradox”, having largely been resistant to such impact factors. That is, “intergovernmental supranationalism” has remained the dominant feature of the enlargement polity, politics and policy. Even though the overall result has not changed, there has been change in the configuration among the intergovernmental and the supranational elements. That is, while on the one hand intergovernmental forces have increased, on the other hand, all three dimensions have primarily been hit by the “technicality turn”, consequently fostering the supranational momentum. Finally, an overall new balance has been reached under the “old” intergovernmental supranational umbrella.
Topic:: Politics, Regional Cooperation, European Union, and Political Science
Political Geography:: Europe, Global Focus, and European Union

35510. Tool 8: Integrating Gender in Security Sector Reform and Governance (Toolkit for Security Sector Reform and Governance in West Africa)

Author:: Aisha Fofana Ibrahim, Alex Sivalie Mbayo, and Rosaline Mcarthy
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: Gender equality is an international norm that stipulates the equal right of women, men and gender minorities to access opportunities and resources, regardless of the sex with which they were born and the gender with which they identify. In the context of the security sector, this means that women and men should have equal opportunities to participate in the provision, management and oversight of security services, and that the security needs of women, men, boys and girls should be equally considered and effectively responded to. While ECOWAS recommends that the specific security and justice needs of men and women, boys and girls are fully integrated into all reform processes and governance mechanisms applicable to the security sector, the transition from theory to practice often proves challenging. Tool 8 of the Toolkit for Security Sector Reform and Governance in West Africa is designed to provide practitioners with action-oriented guidance for tackling this challenge. It may be most useful to national actors involved in the governance of security institutions and to those who partake in democratic oversight. This Tool aims to facilitate the identification of effective entry points for integrating the aims of gender equality in national legislation, strategies and budgets for security; in the management of security institutions; in the delivery of justice and security services and in national defence; as well as at all stages of internal and external oversight of the security sector.
Topic:: Security, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Women, Inequality, and LGBT+
Political Geography:: Geneva, Africa, United Nations, Liberia, West Africa, and Sierra Leone

35511. Survivors Speak: Reflections on Criminal Justice System Responses to Domestic Violence in Bosnia and Herzegovina

Author:: Majda Halilović and Heather Huhtanen
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: Domestic violence has increasingly been recognized as a societal problem and a criminal act as opposed to a private family matter. This is demonstrated by legislation that criminalizes acts of family violence and promotes gender equality and human rights. The question remains, however, whether criminal justice system professionals (police, prosecutors and judges) are applying existing legislation intended to hold perpetrators accountable, protect victims and their children and ultimately interrupt the damaging intergenerational pattern of domestic violence. This research explores the experiences of survivors of systematic domestic violence and contrasts those stories with common theories on the causes of domestic violence and criminal justice system practices in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The resulting publication reveals the extent to which systematic domestic violence is not appreciated as a serious criminal violation, and as a result, places victims, their children and the community at increased risk. Survivors Speak goes on to concretely identify evidence based risk factors within cases of domestic violence, validated through qualitative research in BiH. These risk factors can be used by criminal justice system professionals to appropriately assess and tailor the police, prosecutorial and judicial response to domestic violence, thereby enhancing victim and community safety and interrupting the intergenerational cycle of domestic violence
Topic:: Crime, Gender Issues, Human Rights, Law Enforcement, Gender Based Violence, Memory, and Violence
Political Geography:: Geneva, Europe, Eastern Europe, and Bosnia and Herzegovina

35512. La Protection des Données Personnelles dans le Cadre du Secteur de la Sécurité au Maroc (The Protection of Personal Data in Relation to the Security Sector in Morocco)

Author:: Cécile Guy, Alizée Henry, and Habib Belkouch
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Geneva Centre for Security Sector Governance (DCAF)
Abstract:: This report summarizes the discussions at the seminar on the protection of personal data in relation to the security sector in Morocco, held in Rabat on 19 and 20 October 2015. It aims to assess the situation of the protection of personal data in relation to the security sector in Morocco on the one hand, and to sensitize stakeholders to the importance of protecting citizens' privacy as an issue of major security governance in connected companies on the other hand.
Topic:: Security, Science and Technology, Governance, Privacy, and Surveillance
Political Geography:: Geneva, Europe, North Africa, and Morocco

35513. Peace in Sri Lanka

Author:: Abdul Majid, Umbreen Javaid, and Saadat Faruq Zahid
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The two races living on the same land come face to face to fight against each other for their own interests and rights. The history of Sri Lanka from its inception is red with bloodshed between the Tamils and the sinhala. Whereas, the indigenous Tamils remained calm and cool, the migrant Tamils made a group to get their own home land in Sri Lanka by conquering and snatching the piece of land known as Eelam. They struggled, killed general public and the people in security, there was a time when security forces were tired off and LTTE fighters were aggressive. There was a movement in the history very well known as the event of 9/11 that defined these fighters clearly as terrorists. It further strengthened and encouraged the Sri Lankan government to get the international moral, financial and military support. That ultimately resulted in a national success and LTTE lost the war in 2009. The Sri Lanka government faces the challenge of accommodating the Tamils and brings them into the governing, security and educational force of the nation. Also resolve their all political, economic, social and psychological grievances.
Topic:: Ethnic Conflict, Government, and Conflict
Political Geography:: South Asia and Sri Lanka

35514. Issues of Under-Representation: Mapping Women in Indian Politics

Author:: David Lal, Abhiruchi Ojha, and Nidhi Sadana Sabharwal
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: This article highlights the perpetual under-representation of women in Indian parliament. As the recently held 14th General elections in India situated a stable government at the centre, however, it still has lesser women representatives. The election commission reports from 1957 to the recently held general elections in 2014 highlights emancipation of women from mere absent electorate to active voters. Further, the data also underlines a shift from mere active voters to vibrant candidates, as the number of women candidates is increased manifold. Despite these positive shift from becoming ‘active voters’ and ‘vibrant candidates’, women are unable to capitalise the increase in number of candidates to members of parliament. Undoubtedly, the traditionally placed patriarchical society in India is still unwelcoming when it comes to elect women as the political representatives. Apart from patriarchy as the important reason other various political and nonpolitical reasons is also responsible for this democratic deficit. The substantial representation of women is missing in proportion to their population. While we celebrate the vibrancy of Indian democracy, the issue of under-representation of women continue to be a major challenge for Indian democracy.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Politics, Elections, Women, Inequality, and Representation
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

35515. Curbing Extremism through Sufism: A South Asian Perspective

Author:: Shagufta Bano, Muhammad Sohail, and Syed Shahbaz Hussain
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Sufis are the spiritual guides who aspire for closer union with God. Islam is an exterior edifice in which an entity subsists, whilst the inner exploration for enlightenment belongs to an ambit of Sufi realization. The Sufi approach endeavors to mend a human demeanor and to open up human vistas to the sublime amity that comes from propinquity to God. Sufism is a devotional and spiritual current in the Islamic history. Sufism enlightens society to abstain from spitefulness, barbarianism, bigotry, sadism and discrepancy. Now it has been subject matter to the strain of modernization experienced across the Muslim world and people are faced with terrorism on its peak. The present-day approach of sadism and belligerence calls for a good propel for the message of Sufi Diaspora for the alteration of traumatized mental approach of the populace. The conflict ridden people really have a pursuit for peace. Sufi ideas generously contribute to the harmony and relief. Islam is a great and splendid religion now has become maligned due to atrocities of ‘Jehadis’ in the label of religion. Fundamentalism has amended the motif and spirit of Islam. Pakistan as a soil of Sufis, longs for serenity and harmony. Sufis are the people who believe in tolerance, love and well being of all humanity. It is necessary to follow the doctrine of Sufism in the world of turmoil and tribulations and to address the most serious issues like lack of interfaith harmony, terrorism, exploitation in Pakistan. The intention of this study is to explore the role of major Sufi saints in Sub-continent for preaching religion on the instructions of their sacred mentors and people have faith on Sufi Saints.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Taliban, Violent Extremism, and Sufism
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and Punjab

35516. Pakistan’s Nuclear Development (1974-1998): External Pressures

Author:: Iram Khalid and Zakia Bano
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Pakistan detonated its nuclear test on May 28, 1998 in the Chagai hills which is along the western border of the province, Baluchistan. Many personalities and organizations were involved in developing the nuclear device against a backdrop of political, security and economic constraints, as well as opportunities. India’s 1974 nuclear explosion had proved a fundamental flashpoint for Pakistan‘s nuclear program. Pakistan decided to accomplish its vow to “eat grass or go hungry” in its mission on its advance for the nuclear weapons. Pakistan’s nuclear program evolved under immensely intricate and challenging security dilemmas and circumstances. Historical experience, a combination of cultural nuances, idiosyncrasies of personalities, and domestic politics existed throughout the nuclearization process. Pakistan faced regional crises, geographical compulsions, technical challenges, global politics, external pressure and international propaganda to nuclear materials know-how.
Topic:: Security, Nuclear Weapons, History, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Punjab

35517. Politics of Ethnicity: A Theoretical Perspective

Author:: Rehana Saeed Hashmi and Gulshan Majeed
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Ethnicity and Ethnic Politics is an important Phenomenon of Plural Societies. In developing world, ethnic politics is one of the main reasons of internal instability. Ethnic conflict leads towards ethnic politics which is often conceived as a conflict among ethnic groups. This study has focused on the theoretical frame work of ethnic politics, and the main argument is that state has a central role in developing, escalating and diffusing ethnic conflict that is why ethnic conflict does not only mean conflict among ethnic groups but group’s conflict with state is also the part of ethnic politics. The study highlights various steps towards the development of politics of ethnicity. A life cycle model of ethnic conflict is also drawn to analyze various stages of conflict, and how the intensity of ethnic conflict with state gradually gain momentum. The debate also focuses that ethnic conflict with state should be handled on priority basis. If state fails to resolve conflict, the reformation of nationality of a particular ethnic group creates serious unrest and threat to the process of nation building.
Topic:: Conflict Prevention, Ethnic Conflict, Political Theory, Ethnicity, and State
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Kashmir

35518. Where Are E-governments in South Asian Countries? A Comparative Approach

Author:: Jin-Wan Seo and Hasan Md Golam Mehedi
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The four countries are selected and compared based on their use of e-government as a tool to work and share information more effectively while delivering better services to the public. It also provides a general understanding of e-government and uses different variables to discuss the reality of e-government development and e-participation over the last few years in these four countries. In view of this, the time series data are collected from the United Nations e-government survey to highlight developing trends in e-government along with issues and challenges, best practices, and opportunities for the development of egovernment. As a result, this study finds that real e-government remains a distant hope in these countries due to the expense of supplying technology, a lack of infrastructure, limited human capital and a weak private sector.
Topic:: Development, Science and Technology, Infrastructure, and Internet
Political Geography:: Pakistan, Bangladesh, South Asia, India, Asia, and Korea

35519. Female Political Participation in South Asia: a Case Study of Pakistan

Author:: Arfan Latif, Ahmed Usman, Jafar Riaz Kataria, and Muhammad Abdullah
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: The objective of the current study is to find out the male’s perception about female political participation. Prior researchers in this area were mostly quantitative hence the current study is a qualitative study to get an in-depth understanding of the phenomenon. This study used purposive sampling technique and the findings of the study are based on 20 in-depth interviews and 2 focus group discussions. The study concluded that religious, economic and patriarchal mind-set is the main factors that hinder women in the field of politics. The findings of the current study can be effectively used to make women participate in a more productive way by increasing the awareness at the grass root level and by making appropriate policies and the national level.
Topic:: Gender Issues, Politics, Women, and Inequality
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and Punjab

35520. Challenges and Opportunities of Globalization for the Development of Human Rights in Pakistan 2010-2014

Author:: Azhar Rashid and Muhammad Arshad Watoo
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Globalization is a growing phenomenon in the contemporary times when man has become modern in its thinking, actions and evaluation. Growing awareness regarding human rights is not only bringing human into mainstream affairs being major stakeholders indirectly but also greater expectations. This reality of preservation of human rights has brought the issue into legislation to make it law as a written part of the constitution at national, regional and global level in almost all spheres. Consequently, assurance of human fundamental rights is ground reality and written part of all the constitutions of the world. Globalization has transformed the world into a global village where there are commonalities of the cultures, exchange of ideas and free economic approaches are struggling to bring consensus among the world society to protect and preserve the human rights against any violation. World has divided into two blocks global north and global south based on their economic and political capacities. Globalization phenomenon was started by global north so it augurs well for the advancement of their interests while South is less benefited because of having underdeveloped status and weaker rule of law, social, economic and political condition. There are disparities of resources between both the blocks that are why south is suffering and north is maintaining status quo. State like Pakistan being the part and parcel of global south is facing economic and political hurdles where there is no provision of basic human requirements like food, health, education, employment and socio-economic stability. Globalization is north-centered phenomenon and more beneficial for them as compare to south. Globalization has positives and negatives. On one side it is providing awareness about the human rights violations while on other side it seems unable to protect human rights violations. Human rights violation scale is growing in Pakistan where there is nationalistic economy that is anti-thesis of the globalization and free market economy of north. Moreover, weak socio-economic and political conditions in Pakistan causing deprivations and grievance are growing where a specific chunk of society is violating all norms and rules of human rights by using their economic power and social status. In comparison to internationalization of economies under the umbrella of globalization, limited weightage is given to Pakistani exports in international market as compare to exports that proves very costly with the emergence of issue balance of payment that causes severe economic implications on Pakistan economy where social and political sector already going downwards and lacking to provide basic needs of life and fundamental rights. Labor issues and forced labor menace is growing in Pakistan where there are less facilities and larger number of labor and phenomenon of brain drain is growing. Globalization is impacting Pakistan more in a negative way and less in positive way. In this phase of initial years of second decade of twenty first century, human rights violation has decreased due to constitutional protection, media campaigns, role of NGO’s but still long way to go ahead to curb the menace.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, Human Rights, and Labor Issues
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, and Punjab

35521. A Historical Analysis of Trends in Pakhtun Ethno-Nationalism

Author:: Shahida Aman and Muhammad Ayub Jan
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Although, historically, the first political manifestations of Pakhtun nationalism may be traced to Bayazid Ansari’s (1525-85) Roshani movement (Gregorian, 1969 :43-45; and Misdaq, 2006: 36-39) and Khushal Khan Khattak’s (1513-89) rebellion against the Mughal rule, however, its ethno-nationalist roots are usually mapped out from the pre-partition mobilization of common Pakhtun masses by the Khudai Khidmatgar (servants of the God) movement of Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan. Starting off as a social reform society, the Khudai Khidmatgars metamorphosized into first an anti-colonial nationalist movement, evolving on the eve of partition of India, into one of ethnic nationalism. The post-independence period witnessed calls for attainment of either an independent Pakhtunistan or greater autonomy for the Pakhtun regions within a federal structure of the state. The irredentist trend in Pakhtun ethno-nationalist politics manifested itself in the controversial Pakhtunistan issue that strained relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistani state’s growth and rise in ethnic Pakhtun share in the civil-military bureaucracy witnessed greater integration of Pakhtuns within the polity of Pakistan and a dampening of separatist tendencies in them. Renaming of NWFP as Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and extension of provincial autonomy under the 18th Amendment further boosted Pakhtun ethnic integration into the state of Pakistan. More recently, however, Pakhtun ethno-nationalist movement is believed to be assuming a distinct fervor. The rise of Taliban phenomenon in the tribal belt and settled districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has been labeled as a violent manifestation of Pakhtun ethnonationalism manifested in an Islamist garb. The paper, besides analyzing the integrationist and the separatist (irredentist) trends in Pakhtun ethno-nationalist politics, also aims at exploring the more recent phenomena of its construction around the conceptual framework of ‘ethnicizing Islam’ in the Pakhtun context. It argues that the current Islamist manifestation of Pakhtun ethno-politics is a product of Pakistani state’s attempts at subduing the irredentist Pakhtun strain (that bothered the state throughout the 1960s and the 1970s in Pakhtunistan issue) through support to the Islamist movement inside Afghanistan, especially in later half of 1970s and in the wake of Soviet invasion of Afghanistan. This paper analyzes the Pakhtun ethno-nationalist struggle, especially in the earlier decades as a South Asian Studies 30 (2) 232 form of class struggle to attain political power in the state. As such, it primarily adopts a Marxist lens to the problem of ethnic nationalism among the Pakhtuns for the beginning phase of it. Most of the analyses are historical in a sense that the paper traces the history of Pakhtun ethno nationalism in Pakistan. Moreover, the paper does not claim to be a consummate effort, rather it proposes that there are alternative explanations as plausible as this one to understand the issue.
Topic:: Nationalism, History, Ethnicity, and Class
Political Geography:: Pakistan, South Asia, India, and Punjab

35522. New Trends in Sino-Pak Defence and Strategic Relations since 9/11: Indian Concern

Author:: Zahid Ali Khan and Shabir Ahmad
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: South Asian Studies
Institution:: Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:: Pakistan relations with China remain a cornerstone of Pakistan’s foreign Policy. Their common views, perceptions, approaches, and policies at the regional and global level made them a durable friends, allies and partners. Their hostility towards India, their support each other in wars against India, and the conclusion of different agreements further strengthened their bilateral mutual relations between these two countries. And above all, China’s moral, diplomatic, political, financial, and military support since 1971 proved a great source of consolation and encouragement to Pakistan in the difficult hours. In the changing global scenario since 9/11, witnessed drastic improvement in Sino-Pak military and strategic relations. Exchange of visits by high leaderships and other dignitaries, their growing coordination in Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea, Persian Gulf and Gwadar, the signing of naval and military agreements, their missiles and nuclear cooperation, provided both the countries with opportunity to counterweight India’s growing hegemony and supremacy. On her part, India is trying its best to frustrate the growing Sino- Pak Defence nexus by using a variety of tactics in order to protect and safeguard her interest in the region.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Regional Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, Military Strategy, Weapons, Alliance, Oceans and Seas, and 9/11
Political Geography:: Pakistan, China, South Asia, India, Asia, and United States of America

35523. Has Sweden injected realism into public financial management reforms in partner countries?

Author:: Matt Andrews
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Public financial management (PFM) reform is a common part of many development initiatives. It generally involves promoting "good practices" in developing countries, embedded in frameworks like the Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability (PEFA) assessment (PEFA 2006). These include multi-year budgeting, competitive procurement, modern internal audit, and more. Such practices have proved effective in selected contexts and promise solutions to common problems in governments. Unfortunately, a growing literature shows that many governments do not solve their problems after years of adopting such solutions. Data reveal that governments commonly produce new laws that are not enforced and budgets that are not effectively executed, and suffer from weak capacities in distributed units (like line ministries and local governments) after many finished projects (Andrews 2006, 2011, 2013; Porter et al. 2011; Wescott 2009). Studies tie these limits to a lack of realism in reform design and implementation (Andrews 2013; Andrews, Pritchett and Woolcock 2012; Booth 2011; Levy 2013; World Bank 2012). They argue, essentially, that reforms commonly fail to allow for necessary adaptation of external ideas to the realities in targeted contexts, often because the reform processes focus too narrowly on introducing the external good practice in principle and pay little attention to the practical difficulties of doing so in practice. Studies suggest, for instance, that such reforms pay insufficient attention to the political and administrative difficulties of effecting change, and that these difficulties commonly undermine reform results. Where studies see more effective and far reaching reform they often find that the externally nominated "good practices" are fitted to the targeted context through more adaptive processes that emphasize the real and practical issues of doing reform (like building reform support, testing and adjusting reform designs, and continually matching solutions and capacity realities and needs) (Andrews 2015; Andrews et al. 2014; Cabri 2014; Levy 2013). These studies call for approaches that allow more realism in reform processes in developing countries, especially those supported by multilateral and bilateral donors. They do so knowing that similar calls have been made before; and that there are already many examples of such realism in the development community. There is, however, a challenge to identify these examples and describe what such processes look like in practice. This search leads quickly to a focus on bilateral donors. A small and interesting set of work suggests that such donors might have a comparative advantage in introducing more realism to PFM-type reforms in developing countries, given their own country’s recent experiences with doing such reforms. The argument is simply that development agencies from these countries can leverage the real experiences with doing reform in their own contexts when engaging with reformers in developing countries. They can, for instance, access experienced reformers to share lessons on issues like building demand for change, establishing political support for reform, and adapting reform ideas to context. Such lessons are often learned best through experience and remain tacit in those who have been through the experience. Bilateral agencies arguably have an advantage in accessing such people and their lessons, and can more effectively incorporate this valuable knowledge into their reform support than multilateral agencies. This paper offers a novel analysis of this theory, asking whether Swedish development agencies working in the PFM field have leveraged the potential comparative advantage of the country’s own experience in supporting reform. The country’s own reforms have resulted in effective Sweden-specific adaptations of many of the good practices being promoted in developing countries today (including multi-year budgeting and modern accounting and audit). Academic descriptions of these reforms emphasize the processes by which they were adopted and the realism involved in such, and suggest the presence of many applied and tacit lessons one could see as valuable in developing countries (about testing reform ideas, for example, progressing gradually in reform processes, creating an urgent pressure for change, and building support for reform). The question asked here is whether Swedish development agencies bring these lessons into their support for PFM work, building on a potential advantage to promote realism in reform.
Topic:: Reform, Finance, Economy, International Development, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe, Sweden, and European Union

35524. Why is Chiapas Poor?

Author:: Dan Levy, Ricardo Hausmann, Miguel Angel Santos, Luis Espinoza, and Miguel Flores
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: No matter which way you look at it, Chiapas is the most backward of any state in Mexico. Its per capita income is the lowest of the 32 federal entities, at barely 40% of the national median (Figure 1). Its growth rate for the decade 2003-2013 was also the lowest (0.2%),1 causing the income gap separating Chiapas from the national average to increase from 53% to 60%. That is to say that today the average income for a worker in Mexico is two and a half times greater than the average in Chiapas. The two next poorest states, Oaxaca and Guerrero, are 25% and 30% above Chiapas.2 According to the Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía de México (INEGI, National Institute of Statistics and Geography), Chiapas is also the state with the highest poverty rate (74.7%) as well as extreme poverty (46.7%).3 These major differences in income levels among Mexican federal entities are reproduced as in a fractal within Chiapas. In fact, while the wealthiest entity (Mexico City) is wealthier than the poorest (Chiapas) by a factor of six, the difference within Chiapas between the wealthiest municipality (Tuxtla Gutiérrez) and the poorest (Aldama and Mitontic) is by a factor greater than eight.4 As there are different "Mexicos" within Mexico,5 in Chiapas there are also different sorts of Chiapas (Figure 2). Income per capita in Tuxtla Gutiérrez, to the right of the distribution, is five standard deviations above the state average. Next comes a series of intermediate cities, San Cristóbal de las Casas, Comitán de Domínguez, Tapachula, and Reforma, between two and a half to four standard deviations above the average. The remaining municipalities of Chiapas follow (122 in all), clustered to the far left of the distribution. In addition, both the statistics available at the town level and our visits to various municipalities in Chiapas seem to indicate that significant differences also exist within these municipalities. From this vantage point, questions as to why Chiapas is poor, or what explains its significant backwardness compared to other areas of Mexico, become much more complex. Why do some regions in Chiapas have high income levels, while other regions remain stagnant, fully dependent on federal transfers and deprived from the benefits of modern life?
Topic:: Development, Poverty, Governance, and Economic Inequality
Political Geography:: Central America, Mexico, and Chiapas

35525. Being Special: The Rise of Super Clubs in European Football

Author:: Matt Andrews
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Professional football clubs are ubiquitous in Europe. Every small to medium sized city has one. But most cities do not have an F.C. Barcelona or Bayern Munich or Manchester United. These are among the ‘super clubs’ of Europe: they win more games, attract more supporters, and make more money than other clubs. These clubs were not always the juggernauts one sees today, however. This paper looks at how they emerged. It tells more of an economic story than a sporting one, recounting a narrative similar to that one might tell about the emergence of successful multinational companies. According to this narrative, super clubs rise by producing increasingly more complex products because of expanding productive capabilities, providing growing opportunities for economic spillovers in the process. As indicated, this narrative focuses particularly on the ‘capabilities’ that have helped super clubs emerge. This focus draws on an emerging theory about economic complexity, which is used to frame the paper and is briefly introduced in section two (following an introduction to super clubs). The theory posits that production results from the creative combination of economic capabilities—or know-how. Some products require few common capabilities, are produced by everyone, and have relatively low value: like the average football club. Other products require many capabilities (including some that are rare), have high value, and are produced by a select group: like the super club. This theory is used to suggest two hypotheses about how football clubs become super: First, clubs do not become super by just producing better versions of the same products (a successful football team). Instead, over time, these clubs produce more complex, higher-value, globally consumed products. Second, clubs become super by accumulating new capabilities (or know-how) over time, manifest in new skills and people accessed through a range of ‘catalyst capabilities’ that source the skills. The catalyst capabilities include engagement mechanisms (through which skills are located and contracted), capital, infrastructure, and adaptive leadership. These hypotheses are put to the test in this study.
Topic:: Economics, Sports, and Economic Complexity
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

35526. Value Subtraction in Public Sector Production: Accounting vs Economic Cost of Primary Schooling in India

Author:: Lant Pritchett and Yamini Aiyar
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: We combine newly created data on per student government expenditure on children in government elementary schools across India, data on per student expenditure by households on students attending private elementary schools, and the ASER measure of learning achievement of students in rural areas. The combination of these three sources allows us to compare both the "accounting cost" difference of public and private schools and also the "economic cost"—what it would take public schools, at their existing efficacy in producing learning, to achieve the learning results of the private sector. We estimate that the "accounting cost" per student in a government school in the median state in 2011/12 was Rs. 14,615 while the median child in private school cost Rs. 5,961. Hence in the typical Indian state, educating a student in government school costs more than twice as much than in private school, a gap of Rs. 7,906. Just these accounting cost gaps aggregated state by state suggests an annual excess of public over private cost of children enrolled in government schools of Rs. 50,000 crores (one crore=10 million) or 0.6 percent of GDP. But even that staggering estimate does not account for the observed learning differentials between public and private. We produce a measure of inefficiency that combines both the excess accounting cost and a money metric estimate of the cost of the inefficacy of lower learning achievement. This measure is the cost at which government schools would be predicted to reach the learning levels of the private sector. Combining the calculations of accounting cost differentials plus the cost of reaching the higher levels of learning observed in the private sector state by state (as both accounting cost differences and learning differences vary widely across states) implies that the excess cost of achieving the existing private learning levels at public sector costs is Rs. 232,000 crores (2.78% of GDP, or nearly US$50 billion). It might seem counterintuitive that the total loss to inefficiency is larger than the actual budget, but that is because the actual budget produces such low levels of learning at such high cost that when the loss from both higher expenditures and lower outputs are measured it exceeds expenditures.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Government, Children, and Youth
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

35527. From Financial Repression to External Distress: The Case of Venezuela

Author:: Carmen M. Reinhart and Miguel Angel Santos
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Recent work has supported that there is a connection between domestic debt level and sovereign default on external debt. We examine the potential linkages in a case study of Venezuela from 1984 to 2013. This unique example encompasses multiple financial crises, cycles of liberalization and policy reversals, and alternative exchange rate arrangements. The Venezuelan experience reveals a nexus among domestic debt, financial repression, and external vulnerability. Unlike foreign currency-denominated debt, debt in domestic currency may be reduced through financial repression, a tax on bondholders and savers producing negative real interest rates. Using a variety of methodologies we estimate the magnitude of the tax from financial repression. On average, this financial repression tax (as a share of GDP) is similar to those of OECD economies, in spite of much higher domestic debt-to-GDP ratios in the latter. The financial repression "tax rate" is significantly higher in years of exchange controls and legislated interest rate ceilings. In line with earlier literature on capital controls, our comprehensive measures of capital flight document a link between domestic disequilibrium and a weakening of the net foreign asset position via private capital flight. We suggest these findings are not unique to the Venezuelan case.
Topic:: Debt, Finance, Capital Flows, Inflation, and Interest Rates
Political Geography:: South America and Venezuela

35528. Why Are Indian Children So Short?

Author:: Seema Jayachandran and Rohini Pande
Publication Date:: 04-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: India's child stunting rate is among the highest in the world, exceeding that of many poorer African countries. In this paper, we analyze data for over 174,000 Indian and Sub-Saharan African children to show that Indian firstborns are taller than African firstborns; the Indian height disadvantage emerges with the second child and then increases with birth order. This pattern persists when we compare height between siblings, and also holds for health inputs such as vaccinations. Three patterns in the data indicate that India's culture of eldest son preference plays a key role in explaining the steeper birth order gradient among Indian children and, consequently, the overall height deficit. First, the Indian firstborn height advantage only exists for sons. Second, an Indian son with an older sibling is taller than his African counterpart if and only if he is the eldest son. Third, the India-Africa height deficit is largest for daughters with no older brothers, which reflects that fact that their families are those most likely to exceed their desired fertility in order to have a son.
Topic:: Health, Poverty, Children, and International Development
Political Geography:: Africa, South Asia, and India

35529. Pyramid Capitalism: Cronyism, Regulation, and Firm Productivity in Egypt

Author:: Ishac Diwan, Philip Keefer, and Marc Schiffbauer
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Using an original database of 469 politically connected firms under the Mubarak regime in Egypt, we explore the economic effects of cronyism. Previous research has shown that cronyism is lucrative. We address numerous questions raised by this research. First, do crony firms receive favorable regulatory treatment? We find that they do: connected firms are more likely to benefit from trade protection, energy subsidies, access to land, and regulatory enforcement. Second, does regulatory capture account for the high value of connected firms? In our sample, connected firms exhibit superior corporate performance relative to unconnected firms and this is systematically related to regulatory capture. Energy subsidies and trade protection, for example, account for the higher profits of politically connected firms. Third, do crony firms hurt growth? We exploit a natural experiment setting to show that the entry of politically connected firms into previously unconnected sectors slows employment growth and skews the distribution of employment towards less productive smaller firms.
Topic:: Economics, Economy, Business, Networks, and Cronyism
Political Geography:: Middle East, North Africa, and Egypt

35530. The Power of Transparency: Information, Identification Cards and Food Subsidy Programs in Indonesia

Author:: Abhijit Banerjee, Rema Hanna, Jordan C. Kyle, Benjamin A. Olken, and Sudarno Sumarto
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Can governments improve aid programs by providing information to beneficiaries? In our model, information can change how much aid citizens receive as they bargain with local officials who implement national programs. In a large-scale field experiment, we test whether mailing cards with program information to beneficiaries increases their subsidy from a subsidized rice program. Beneficiaries received 26 percent more subsidy in card villages. Ineligible households received no less, so this represents lower leakage. The evidence suggests that this effect is driven by citizen bargaining with local officials. Experimentally adding the official price to the cards increased the subsidy by 21 percent compared to cards without price information. Additional public information increased higher-order knowledge about eligibility, leading to a 16 percent increase in subsidy compared to just distributing cards. In short, increased transparency empowered citizens to reduce leakages and improve program functioning.
Topic:: Government, Humanitarian Aid, Food, Political and institutional effectiveness, and Social Policy
Political Geography:: Indonesia and Southeast Asia

35531. Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy: Spring 2015

Author:: Jennifer Rowland, Nada Zohdy, Brian Katulis, Michael Wahid Hanna, Faysal Itani, Muhammad Y. Idris, Joelle Thomas, Tamirace Fakhoury, Farouk El-Baz, Kheireddine Bekkai, Amira Maaty, and Sarah McKnight
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:: The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:: Our Spring 2015 volume captures the troubling developments of the past year in the Middle East and North Africa. In 2014, the Syrian conflict that has so beguiled the international community spilled over into Iraq, with the swift and shocking rise of the Islamic State in Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS). ISIS is causing the ever-complex alliances in the region to shift in peculiar ways. In Iraq, US airstrikes provide cover for Iranian-backed militias fighting ISIS; while in Yemen, the United States supports a Saudi intervention against a different Iranianbacked armed group that has taken control of the Yemeni capital. Meanwhile, simmering political disputes in Libya escalated into a full-blown civil war, sparking concern in neighboring Egypt, where the old authoritarian order remains in control despite the country’s popular revolution. The Gulf countries contemplate their responses to record-low oil prices, continuing negotiations between the United States and Iran, and the threat of ISIS. And Tunisia remains one of the region’s only bright spots. In November, Tunisians voted in the country’s first free and fair presidential elections. This year’s Journal brings new analysis to many of these complex events and broader regional trends. We begin with the positive: an exclusive interview with former Tunisian Prime Minister Mehdi Jomaa. In this year’s feature articles: Brian Katulis zooms out to assess the Obama administration’s record in the Middle East over the past six years; Michael Wahid Hanna refutes the notion that the Iraqi and Syrian borders will need to be redrawn as a result of ISIS’ takeover; and Faysal Itani analyzes the US coalition’s strategy to defeat ISIS, arguing that it cannot succeed without empowering Sunni civilians. Muhammed Idris and Joelle Thomas turn to economics in an assessment of the United Arab Emirates’ efforts to go green. Tamirace Fakhoury points out a blind spot in the study of the Middle East and North Africa: how large diaspora communities affect political dynamics in their home countries. Farouk El-Baz takes us to Egypt, where he proposes a grand economic plan to pull the country out of poverty and set it on a path toward longterm growth. From Egypt, we move west to the oft-neglected country of Algeria, where Kheireddine Bekkai argues for more inclusive education policies on national identity. Finally, Amira Maaty comments on the region’s desperate need for robust civil societies, while Sarah McKnight calls for improvements in Jordan’s water policies.
Topic:: Security, Civil Society, Development, Environment, Migration, History, Natural Resources, Social Movement, Islamic State, Economy, Political stability, Arab Spring, Military Intervention, Identities, and Diversification
Political Geography:: Middle East, Algeria, North Africa, Syria, Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and United States of America

35532. Ballots, Bullets, and Bargains: American Foreign Policy and Presidential Elections

Author:: Michael H. Armacost
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Book
Institution:: Columbia University Press
Abstract:: Drawing on twenty-four years of experience in government, Michael H. Armacost explores how the contours of the U.S. presidential election system influence the content and conduct of American foreign policy. He examines how the nomination battle impels candidates to express deference to the foreign policy DNA of their party and may force an incumbent to make wholesale policy adjustments to fend off an intra-party challenge for the nomination. He describes the way reelection campaigns can prod a chief executive to fix long-neglected problems, kick intractable policy dilemmas down the road, settle for modest course corrections, or scapegoat others for policies gone awry. Armacost begins his book with the quest for the presidential nomination and then moves through the general election campaign, the ten-week transition period between Election Day and Inauguration Day, and the early months of a new administration. He notes that campaigns rarely illuminate the tough foreign policy choices that the leader of the nation must make, and he offers rare insight into the challenge of aligning the roles of an outgoing incumbent (who performs official duties despite ebbing power) and the incoming successor (who has no official role but possesses a fresh political mandate). He pays particular attention to the pressure for new presidents to act boldly abroad in the early months of his tenure, even before a national security team is in place, decision-making procedures are set, or policy priorities are firmly established. He concludes with an appraisal of the virtues and liabilities of the system, including suggestions for modestly adjusting some of its features while preserving its distinct character.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Elections, and American Presidency
Political Geography:: United States
Publication Identifier:: 9780231539135
Publication Identifier Type:: ISBN

35533. English Identity and Radical Politics

Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: Mile End Institute, Queen Mary University of London
Abstract:: The question of when a sense of cultural Englishness became salient, and what kind of collective interest the English feel is at stake in the domestic union, has become the focus of considerable academic debate as well as political interest.
Topic:: Nationalism, Politics, Domestic Politics, Identities, and International Community
Political Geography:: Britain and United Kingdom

35534. Migration Management of Syrians in Turkey in the framework of the EU’s Migration Policy

Author:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation – TESEV and Friedrich Naumann Foundation have organized, in collaboration with the Mersin Chamber of Commerce and Industry a conference titled “Migrant Management of Syrians in Turkey in the Framework of the EU Migration Policy” on October 20th, 2015 in Mersin. The opening remarks were made by Burhanettin Kocamaz, the Mayor of the Mersin Metropolitan Mucipality; Şerafettin Aşut, the Chairman of the Mersin Chamber of Commerce and Industry; and Prof. Dr. Aydın Uğur the Chairman of the Executive Board of TESEV. During three panels entitled as Migrant management in Turkey in the framework of the EU migration policy, Management of Syrian migrants in Turkey, and Being a Syrian migrant in Turkey, public authorities, academics, and Syrians have discussed the challenges and policy recommendations to improve Syrians’ lives and migrant management in Turkey.
Topic:: Migration, Refugee Issues, Refugee Crisis, and Syrian War
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

35535. Local Recommendations for Access to Justice in Turkey

Author:: Bürge Elvan Erginli, Gamze Nur Çelik, Koray Özdil, and Seda Akço Bilen
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: The report “Local Recommendations for Access to Justice in Turkey” was developed under the project Enhancing Civic Participation and Confidence Building in the Judicial Reform Process and run in partnership with the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) and Turkije Instituut, based in Leiden, Netherlands. The main objectives of the project are to identify, at a local level, the problems that prevent citizens in Turkey from accessing justice in judicial processes, to support local actors serving in the field of justice and law in turning identified problems into significant policy recommendations, and thus, to develop local recommendations for judicial reform.
Topic:: Environment, Law, Courts, and Justice
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Netherlands

35536. Promoting Dialogue and Solutions: What European Legislators Think of Turkey

Author:: Aybars Görgülü, Mehmet Ünlü, Samuel Doveri Vesterbye, and Zerrin Cengiz
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Full membership to the European Union (EU) has been a major foreign policy aspiration for any government leading Turkey in the past three decades. Accordingly, Turkey has been a candidate for EU membership since 1999 and accession negotiations started in 2005. Despite this positive momentum, Turkey is pretty far from full membership perspective as of mid-2015. A decade after the start of the accession negotiations, both sides seem quite busy with their internal problems and the official negotiation process is left into limbo. Although the current political climate does not offer an optimistic look, Turkey’s full membership aspirations are still present. It is clear that Turkey’s membership is different from any previous accession especially due to the size and the demography of the country. However, it should be noted that Turkey deserves a fair treatment and evaluation from the Union if the membership criteria are fully met. Here we face the question of how to tackle socio-cultural prejudice and discrimination with regards to Turkey’s accession process.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, European Union, and Discrimination
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and European Union

35537. Penal Policies and Institutions in Turkey: Structural Problems and Potential Solutions

Author:: Berkay Mandıracı
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Penitentiaries and penal policies have been one of the many areas subjected to changes in the context of the judicial reform taking place in Turkey over the last several years. Officials have been inspired to develop new policies in this field by a number of factors: the rise in the number of inmates and the resulting capacity problem; the inefficacy of outdated municipal prisons; and the need to support the resocialization of inmates through new penal policies. Efforts to increase the resocializing impact of the penal system in Turkey and the mentality transformation aiming at overcoming the historical baggage the penal system carries in Turkey are positive. However, these have not yet produced satisfactory results. This is why human rights violations in penitentiaries in Turkey are still continuing. This report argues that the general aim of the penal regime should be based on ‘resocialization’. Therefore, individuals after going through all stages of the penal process and after facing their crime, should be given the opportunity to fully participate in society again. With this perspective the report assesses the current penal reform process in Turkey and puts emphasis on the need for a holistic penal regime that focuses on resocialization of offenders in all penal stages and applies international human rights standards.
Topic:: Human Rights, Prisons/Penal Systems, Reform, Criminal Justice, and Justice
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

35538. Corruption Assessment Report for Turkey

Author:: Zerrin Cengiz, Pelin Yenigün Dilek, Ezgican Özdemir, Hande Özhabeş, R. Bülent Tarhan, Ayşe Üstünel Yırcalı, and H. Ceren Zeytinoğlu
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: he Corruption Assessment Report for Turkey is the product of the research conducted by TESEV’s Good Governance program under the Southeast European Leadership for Development and Integrity (SELDI) initiative. This report documents the agenda of the first phase of the SELDI partnership that spans 2012 through 2014. Along with presenting evidence on the degree of corruption in Turkey, the report analyzes the current legal setting and the effects of corruption on the economy. It emphasizes the importance of a free judicial system, the role of civil society, and the benefits of international collaboration in fighting corruption. The report also offers possible solutions to fighting corruption, focusing on the elements that make corruption commonplace.
Topic:: Civil Society, Corruption, Accountability, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

35539. The EU’s Niche in the South Caucasus: Old Partners, New Challenges

Author:: Daniel Khachatryan
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Daniel Khachatryan is a Hrant Dink Foundation fellow at the Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV) within the framework of the Support to the Armenia-Turkey Normalisation Process Programme financed by the European Union. Khachatryan’s academic background includes studies at Yerevan State University, University of Oslo and Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts University. In this article, Khachatryan dwells upon the possible steps to be taken by the EU towars the South Caucasus in order to define its role in the region by focusing on the recent developments in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. Daniel Khachatryan, Avrupa Birliği tarafından finanse edilen ve Hrant Dink Vakfı’nın yürütmekte olduğu “Ermenistan-Türkiye Normalleşme Süreci Destek Programı” kapsamında bursiyer olarak TESEV’de çalışmaktadır. Erivan Devlet Üniversitesi, Oslo Üniversitesi ve Tufts Üniversitesi’nde eğitimini tamamlamış olan Khachatryan bu makalesinde Azerbaycan, Ermenistan ve Gürcistan’daki gelişmelere odaklanarak Avrupa Birliği’nin Güney Kafkasya’daki yeri ve rolünü tanımlamak için atması gereken muhtemel adımlara ve mekanizmalara değinmektedir. Makale yalnızca İngilizce olarak yayınlanmıştır.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, Bilateral Relations, Territorial Disputes, European Union, and Economy
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and South Caucasus

35540. Research on Public Trust in the Police in Turkey

Author:: Nur Kırmızıdağ
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: Research on Public Trust in the Police in Turkey, is based on survey data collected on a large-scale sample representative of Turkey. The report provides insights on perceptions of the public with regard to effectiveness/performance, legitimacy of the police and thereby lays bare the level of trust different segments in Turkey attribute to the police. The report utilizes sophisticated statistical methods and, for the first time in Turkey comprehensive scientific models on police trust are being applied giving the opportunity to comparatively analyze the results. Thus the following questions are examined in the report: What is the level of public trust towards police? What are the main components of police trust in Turkey? In how far do police legitimacy and police effectiveness/performance affect police trust in Turkey? What are the factors influencing public’s perception of police legitimacy and effectiveness? How does public’s perception of police legitimacy and effectiveness affect cooperation with and compliance to the police? How does this perception affect public’s toleration of police misconduct? How does public perception of police legitimacy, effectiveness and trust change with regard to different demographic factors in Turkey (political affiliation, ethnic background, religious affinity etc.)?
Topic:: Security, Law Enforcement, Democracy, Legitimacy, Statistics, and Police
Political Geography:: Turkey and Middle East

35541. Effects of the Syrian Refugees on Turkey

Author:: Oytun Orhan
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Turkish Economic and Social Studies Foundation (TESEV)
Abstract:: TESEV Foreign Policy Program and ORSAM (Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies) in order to understand the effects of Syrian asylum seekers to Turkey, visited Adana, Osmaniye, Hatay, Kilis, Gaziantep, Şanlıurfa, Mersin and Kahramanmaraş respectively during four different field study trips in three months. They held series of meetings with municipalities, professional organizations, chambers of trade and industry, civil society organizations, opinion leaders, locals and Syrians. This report has been prepared in the light of the observations and data gained from these field studies.
Topic:: Civil Society, Migration, Refugees, Refugee Crisis, Syrian War, Public Policy, and Services
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

35542. The Super Survey: Two Decades of Americans’ Views on Islam & Muslims

Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: The Bridge Initiative, Georgetown University
Abstract:: In a climate of increased suspicion and skepticism towards Islam and Muslims, polling data collected over the years reveals how Americans have come to view their country’s third-largest religious group. This Super Survey, which compiles and analyzes polling questions collected by over a dozen polling organizations from 1993 to 2014, finds that Americans remain unfamiliar with Islam; feel more coldly towards Muslims than any other religious group; and tend to see Islam as “more violent” than other religions during national debates about military action in the Middle East. Additionally, while they have been supportive of mosques in their communities, a sizeable portion has favored various measures of religious profiling. In the twenty-first century, on average, six in 10 Americans has reported that they don’t know a Muslim personally. And while a plurality of Americans has reported having favorable views of Muslims since 2000, unfavorable views have persisted, with relatively little fluctuation over time.
Topic:: Islam, Religion, Public Opinion, Ideology, and Islamophobia
Political Geography:: United States

35543. Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU Member States. 2015 Report

Author:: Luca Barbone, Mikhail Bonch-Osmolovsky, and Grzegorz Poniatowski
Publication Date:: 10-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This report provides estimates of the VAT Gap for 26 EU Member States for 2013, as well as revised estimates for the period 2009-2012. It is a follow-up to the report “Study to quantify and analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member Statess, published in September 2013 (hereafter: 2013 Report), and to the report “2012 Update Report to the Study to Quantify and Analyse the VAT Gap in the EU-27 Member States” , published in October 2014 (hereafter: 2014 Report). As in previous reports, it was not possible to include estimates for Croatia and Cyprus, due to as-yet-incomplete national account statistics for the two countries. The VAT Gap is an indicator of the effectiveness of VAT enforcement and compliance measures, as it provides an estimate of revenue loss due to fraud and evasion, tax avoidance, bankruptcies, financial insolvencies as well as miscalculations. As the VAT Gap in this study is based on a top-down approach, it does not readily lend itself to be deconstructed according to industrial sectors or other criteria (territorial, professional), and can be best used as a diagnostic tool in the context of its evolution over time. As discussed in previous reports, the VAT Gap is defined as the difference between the amount of VAT actually collected and the VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL), in absolute or percentage terms. The VTTL is an estimated amount of VAT that is theoretically collectable based on the VAT legislation and ancillary regulations. This report calculates, for each country the VTTL on the basis of national accounts, by mapping information on standard, reduced rates and exemptions onto data available on final and intermediate consumption, as well as gross fixed capital formation, from national accounts and use tables. Thus, the quality of the VAT Gap estimates depends on the accuracy and completeness of national accounts data and use tables. The year 2013 saw a continuing overall unfavourable economic environment, as the GDP of the European Union was nearly stagnant. This contributed to a slowdown of nominal final consumption and of other economic aggregates that form the basis of the Value Added Tax. Six countries applied changes to standard or reduced rates in 2013, marking a relatively stable policy environment. During 2013, the overall VAT Total Tax Liability (VTTL) for the EU-26 Member States grew by about 1.2 percent, while collected VAT revenues rose by 1.1 percent. As a result, the overall VAT Gap in the EU-26 saw an increase in absolute values of about Euro 2.8 billion, to reach Euro 168 billion. As a percentage, the overall VAT Gap stayed constant at 15.2 percent. The median VAT Gap rose by 1.6 percentage point, to reach 13.9 percent. In 2013, Member States’ estimated VAT Gaps ranged from the low of 4 percent in Finland, the Netherlands and Sweden, to the high of 41 percent in Romania. Overall, 15 Member States decreased their VAT Gap, with the largest improvements noted in Latvia, Malta and Slovakia. 11 Member States saw an increase in the VAT Gap, generally of small magnitudes, with the largest deteriorations in Estonia and Italy. This report also provides new and expanded evidence on the Policy Gap for the EU-26. The Policy Gap is an indicator of the additional VAT revenue that a Member State could theoretically collect if it applied standard rate to all consumption of goods and services supplied for consideration. We provide here estimates of the Policy Gap adjusted to take into account items that could not easily be taxed even in an “ideal” system (imputed rents, public goods, financial services). The results moderate views of the relative importance of reduced rates and exemptions in reducing the revenue potential of VAT, and suggest that better enforcement remains a key component of any strategy of improvement of the VAT system. The results of this report and the underlying data were presented to Member States in advance of publication and discussed on several occasions with the representatives of Member States. Deviating approaches and views of Member States are noted in the relevant country section in Chapter 3. The authors are grateful for the constructive cooperation and helpful input of Member States.
Topic:: Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, Innovation, VAT, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

35544. Transfer of know-how to small and mid-size businesses in Georgia – White paper

Author:: Maya Grigolia, Lasha Labadze, Pavol Minarik, Alena Zemplinerova, and Marek Vokoun
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This report has been prepared in the framework of the project “Transfer of know-how to small and mid-size businesses” of the International Visegrad Fund (IVF) and USAID. It summarizes the conditions of the SME sector (small and medium size enterprises) in Georgia, identifies the main problems in their development and provides recommendations for further interventions based on the Czech experience, existing literature and a survey implemented among SME stakeholders. Georgia generally receives favorable evaluations of its business environment. It ranks high in indices of economic freedom and is among the top countries with respect to ease of starting and doing business. On the other hand, the SME sector suffers from several problems. The most serious obstacle to SME development seems to be in the area of finance; access to finance is difficult for SMEs and the cost of credit is high. Human capital and innovations are among the weak points of Georgian SMEs as well. The different shortcomings of the environment and markets call for different interventions. The paper is roadmap of concrete activities – it contains a set of recommendations to support SMEs development drawn on three different sources: first, the theoretical foundations of entrepreneurship policy, second, the Czech experience and know-how in the SME sector, and finally, the ideas of local experts and stakeholders generated during interviews and workshops. Activities and recommendations have been divided into “generic,” which relate to a particular determinant of business environment and have an impact across industries and sectors such as access to financing, education, developing skills training, R&D, innovation, export strategy, start-ups, and those which are “sector-specific,” such as banking, health and agriculture. Political stability, the main problem in Georgia, is beyond the scope of possible interventions.
Topic:: Development, Reform, Business, Economic Growth, Institutions, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

35545. Sovereign Bond Purchases and Risk-Sharing Arrangements – Implications for Monetary Policy

Author:: Monika Blaszkiewicz
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The design of the euro area Quantitative Easing (QE) programme raises the question of whether insufficient liquidity in the bond markets will reduce the impact of the programme and lead to market volatility. While estimates suggests that scarcity of around €102 billion may arise over the life of the programme, to date the QE programme has met its monthly targets and bond market volatility has been managed. Questions also arise in respect of the fact that risk is not fully shared on up to €738.4 billion to be purchased over the life of the programme. Partial risk sharing raises the spectre of defaulting central banks exiting the euro system, and existing members being unwilling to bear associated costs, and thus the future of the euro area. However, estimations suggest that, at present, all national central banks should be able to bare losses stemming from sovereign debt purchases under the current round of QE. This report was prepared within a research project entitled Sovereign bond purchases and risk sharing arrangements: Implications for euro-area monetary policy, which received funding from the European Parliament.
Topic:: Finance, Economic Growth, Banks, Trade, and European Central Bank
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

35546. Revisiting the Latvian and Greek Financial Crises: The Benefits of Front-Loading Fiscal Adjustment

Author:: Anders Åslund
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: This paper discusses why Greece has done so poorly in comparison with all other European Union countries since the onslaught of the global financial crisis in 2008. To show what was wrong with its fiscal adjustment, this paper compares Greece with the other European Union country that was hit be the most severe fiscal crisis, namely Latvia. The conclusion is that front-loaded fiscal adjustment works much better. Greek economic policy has been a popular topic among opinion writers, notably Nobel Prize winner and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman, who claimed that Greece suffered from austerity. Because of his prominence in the international public debate, I shall scrutinize his arguments on the Greek crisis. The paper also examines what policy the International Monetary Fund has pursued with regard to Greece, and how its views have been influenced by the debate and Greek economic developments. Finally, the paper assesses what lessons can be drawn from the contrasting experiences of Latvia and Greece. The conclusion is that a fiscal adjustment should be sufficient to resolve the crisis to restore confidence and that it should be as front-loaded as is practically and politically possible.
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Finance, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Fiscal Policy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, Greece, and Latvia

35547. The impact of living and working longer on pension income in five European countries: Estonia, Finland, Hungary, the Netherlands and Poland

Author:: Andres Võrk, Anna Ruzik-Sierdzińska, Elena Jarocinska, Niku Määttänen, Robert Gál, and Theo Nijman
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Life expectancies are rapidly increasing and uncertain in all countries in Europe. To keep pension systems affordable, policy reforms are to be implemented which will encourage individuals to work longer. In this paper we analyze the impact of working and living longer on pension incomes in five European countries and assess the impact of these policy reforms on the financial well-being of the elderly. The paper shows the diversity of the policy measures taken in these countries. Furthermore, we analyze the financial incentives for working longer and postponing claiming pension benefits and we assess the attractiveness of these options. Lastly, we study how increases in life expectancies and survival probabilities affect pension incomes.
Topic:: Demographics, Labor Issues, Social Policy, Labor Policies, Public Policy, Innovation, and Aging
Political Geography:: Europe, Finland, Poland, Estonia, Hungary, Netherlands, and European Union

35548. Transfer of Know-how for SMEs in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. White Paper: Moldova

Author:: Gabor Hunya, Lidis Garbovan, Magdolna Sass, and Oliver Kovacs
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The report focuses on the potential of the development of small and mid-size businesses in Moldova. It provides an economic overview of the country, and then analyzes various best practices and lessons learned from the development of SMEs in the Visegrad countries, especially Hungary. The report provides a description of economic developments, main trade figures, relevant labor developments, migration and the role of remittances and defines the bottlenecks for SME development in the country. The authors built their analysis on available literature and statistics as well as their own survey and interview series. The study highlights six case studies relevant for SME development selected for deeper investigation such as simplified tax schemes, online tax reporting, entrepreneurship education, agriculture and producers’ organizations, the wine industry and issues of measurement of the SME sector. Finally the report draws up potential intervention schemes for Moldovan stakeholders and provides further recommendations for longer term initiatives and actions taken for the support of economic and SME development.
Topic:: Development, Globalization, Business, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

35549. Transfer of Know-how for Small and Mid-size Businesses in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine White Paper: Ukraine

Author:: Vladimir Dubrovskiy
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The publication was issued within the project ‘Transfer of Know-How for Small and Mid-size Businesses in Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine’ which aims to assist SMEs in those countries by providing support to stakeholders in their efforts to develop analytical and policy advocacy capabilities and by opening new channels of communication between SMEs and NGOs in the Visegrad Four countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia) and the rest of the European Union. The objective of the study is to deliver the complete findings and outcomes of the project aimed at Ukraine. This White Paper serves as an authoritative document with action plans, budgets, and a tangible way for the beneficiary country stakeholders to move forward with the agenda of small and medium-sized business development. It presents an overview of the collected background information and contains basic data on the countries, including some key macroeconomic comparisons as well as rankings in major competitiveness reports (e.g. Doing Business report by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development), identifies the project stakeholders and provides an overview of the situation of small and medium-sized enterprises in Ukraine. It also includes the findings of two surveys implemented by the Slovak-Ukrainian team. Based on the findings, the “Discussion and Recommendations” section presents various perspectives on the problems of SMEs in Ukraine using the experience of the accession process of Slovakia, specific examples of key initiatives that led to the resolution of the problems, as well as case studies from various industries. It stresses the involvement of all parties including the EU, local governments, civil society, business associations, and the SMEs themselves. The key outcome of the paper is a road map – a very specific plan of actions including schedules, budgets, and other details within the scope of this project that will help the beneficiary country to cope with problems regarding the agenda of small and middle business development using the expertise and experience of institutions and stakeholders accumulated throughout the Slovak EU accession process. It includes a wide range of activities including a discussion of the project results with various Ukrainian stakeholders, workshops aimed at increasing knowledge about EU markets, legislation and standards, as well as strategic and institutional moves.
Topic:: Development, Business, Economic Growth, Macroeconomics, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Caucasus, Moldova, Eastern Europe, and Georgia

35550. Post-privatisation Corporate Performance in Poland. Evidence from Companies Privatized in 2008-2011

Author:: Barbara Błaszczyk and Wiktor Patena
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The study concerns the effects of Polish privatisation program conducted in the years 2008-2011. After drawing a broad picture of this process we investigate the performance of 59 privatised companies, and finally focus on a deeper analysis of three companies, which is the core part of our study. We test the hypotheses that privatisation increases a company's profitability, labour productivity, capital investment spending, plow-back ratio and leverage. In case studies, we additionally explore the effect of privatization on each company’s value. The outcomes concerning the larger group of companies are partly ambiguous (with four hypotheses confirmed and four rejected). Profitability has been not visibly improved, although a number of positive initiatives and improvements in performance occurred. By contrast, the three case studies showed a significant improvement of profitability and all other performance indicators observed, as well as a considerable increase of company value. Our results show that privatisation works, though its full effects need time to occur.
Topic:: Privatization, Financial Markets, Economy, Economic Growth, State, Innovation, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Poland

35551. Corporate debt securities market in Poland: state of art, problems, and prospects for development

Author:: Agnieszka Gontarek, Piotr Kowalski, and Tomasz Gałka
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The development of the Polish corporate bonds market resulted from changes on the supply side. When the Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Polish entrepreneurs realized that financing their companies’ operations only with the use of credit, even if contracted from different sources, might not be the best idea. Consequently, Polish business turned to debt instruments – said Piotr Kowalski, one of the keynote speakers during the mBank - CASE Seminar no. 136. In the publication, which is an extended and authorized version of presentations delivered during the abovementioned seminar, the authors discuss various aspects of the corporate debt securities market in Poland. Piotr Kowalski gives a synthetic presentation of the subject of the analysis, Agieszka Gontarek presents selected domestic regulations and factors, and Tomasz Gałka writes about selected consequences of excessive burdens.
Topic:: Debt, Business, Economic Growth, Banks, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, and Poland

35552. An assessment of direct and indirect liabilities of Polish banks AD 2015

Author:: Marek Radzikowski and Mieczysław Groszek
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The present document is an attempt at a comprehensive analysis of direct and indirect burdens imposed upon banks in 2015. The idea to present such factors — which are often extremely varied in nature — in a single study was born out of the fact that these factors are often considered separately, on the basis of various criteria, which causes them to be split into different groups. This approach results in a fairly common tendency for fragmentary assessment of their impact and, more importantly, in the adoption of piecemeal regulations which fail to take into account the full impact of the actions taken in different areas. This applies in equal measures to supervisory authorities, regulators, analysts, policymakers and the media, which means that, in a somewhat oversimplified sense, the above statement is applicable to the public at large. This situation can be most succinctly characterised in the manner presented below. In the aftermath of the crisis, banks require a new set of instruments to regulate the functioning thereof. This is because they are to become more stable, safe, less risk-prone and more customer-friendly. Each of these areas requires a separate set of regulatory instruments, along with the respective subgroups thereof. Oftentimes they are not synchronised with each other and are usually aimed at the implementation of a specific, particular goal to an excessive extent. In addition, there are also “special tasks” such as the reform of the Credit and Saving Unions (SKOK).
Topic:: Finance, Economic Growth, Banks, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Central Asia, Caucasus, Eastern Europe, Poland, and European Union

35553. The Banking Union: State of Art

Author:: Andrzej Reich and Stefan Kawalec
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: It is widely believed that the creation of the banking union initiated the integration of the EU banking market. The process is traced back to June 2012 (EU Summit decided to create the banking union), 4 November 2013 (effective date of the Banking Union Regulation), or 4 November 2014 (operational launch of the Single Supervisory Mechanism, SSM). However, the integration of the EU banking market began much earlier and the creation of the banking union should be considered the final rather than the initial step in the process.
Topic:: Finance, Financial Markets, Regional Integration, Banks, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: Europe and European Union

35554. A quarter century of economic reforms in Ukraine: too late, too slow, too little

Author:: Oleh Havrylyshyn
Publication Date:: 03-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: The first aim of this paper is to describe the main developments in the Ukrainian economy since its independence in 1991, focusing on the evolution of output, and the path of economic reforms — that is, to simply show what happened. The bottom line on that is well known: Ukraine’s economy performed very poorly, and its reforms moved quite slowly, lagging behind most of Central Europe and the Baltic, and even behind some FSU (Former Soviet Union) countries. This first task is a relatively easy one, though some measurement issues do need discussion. In comparison, the second aim — explaining why it happened, identifying the explanatory, causal factors — is much more difficult and contentious. Indeed, causation here means two dynamics: the relationship between performance and reform pace, and the underlying determinants of the slow reforms. The paper’s main effort will be to argue and present evidence that the poor economic performance is primarily due to the late and slow start on economic reforms. However, it only begins to point to the explanations for slow reforms and suggest a modeling approach to analyze this econometrically in future work.
Topic:: Development, Markets, Economy, Transitional Justice, Institutions, and Trade Liberalization
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

35555. On Competition in the Banking Sector in Poland and Europe Before and During the Crisis

Author:: Małgorzata Pawłowska
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: In the past decades, the banking sector has come to be known in literature as the banking industry as it was geared to increasing profits, banks were growing, and banking products developed dynamically. It was believed that competition in the banking sector makes banks more efficient and stimulates financial innovation opening new markets. The financial crisis of 2007–2008 has sparked the interest of researchers and politicians in competition in the banking sector and its impact on the stability of the financial sector and overall economic growth. However, researchers cannot agree whether more competition improves or hinders stability. The paper is comprised of three sections and a summary. The first section discusses the concept of competition in the banking sector as well as measures of competition. The second section is a review of literature on competition in the banking sector and its determinants. The third section presents the results of research on competition in the EU, including my own research as well as other research. The paper concludes with a short summary. This publication was presented by Małgorzata Pawłowska during the 134th mBank-CASE Seminar "The global financial crisis: changes in competition in the banking sector in Europe, the role of regulation and intervention by governments and central banks".
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Finance, Economy, Global Financial Crisis, and Banks
Political Geography:: Europe, Poland, and European Union

35556. Will Belarus fully benefit from the Eurasian Economic Union?

Author:: Sierž Naŭrodski and Uladzimir Valetka
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Center for Social and Economic Research - CASE
Abstract:: Eurasian Economic Union, an ambitious project intended to benefit the countries in the post-soviet zone, evokes questions about its future. Is pulling together regional cooperation and tightening its relationship with Russia beneficial to Belarus in the long run? Having analyzed the recent trends in trade, labor and capital flows, Sierž Naūrodski and Uladzimir Valetka shed light on the highly questionable nature of potential benefits the Union could bring to Belarussian economy within its current macroeconomic and institutional framework.
Topic:: Globalization, Economic Growth, Regional Integration, and Trade
Political Geography:: Europe, Eurasia, and Belarus

35557. Reforming the Liability Regime for Air Pollution in India

Author:: Shibani Ghosh
Publication Date:: 12-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: The recent uproar about the toxic levels of pollution in the country’s national capital region has once again brought to fore the failure of the regulatory and legal mechanisms in India to control air pollution. Despite an early legislative acknowledgment of the issues relating to air pollution, and regulatory mechanisms set up consequently, India has not been able to restrict the sharp upward trajectory of air pollution. While several issues with regard to the legal and regulatory regime governing air quality in the country deserve serious and urgent consideration, this paper focuses on one issue in particular – the liability regime for violation of air quality standards. The paper is divided into three parts. The first part discusses the relevant provisions of the law pertaining to liability - civil and criminal - for causing air pollution. The second part identifies three critical issues that have emerged in the current liability regime: (1) the Pollution Control Boards do not have the power to levy penalties; (2) criminal prosecution is not an effective solution; and (3) the National Green Tribunal Act does not provide complete relief. The third and final part of the essay proposes a way forward. It is suggested that the Pollution Control Boards need to be granted additional enforcement powers, and administrative fines for violations should be introduced, albeit with certain conditions.
Topic:: Environment, Health, Governance, Law Enforcement, Law, Reform, and Pollution
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Asia

35558. Channelling household savings to productive uses through the capital markets

Author:: Geetima Das Krishna, Vardhana Pawaskar, and Ankit Bhardwaj
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Savings provides the means for investments. Typically, investments are primarily funded through domestic savings and the rest through foreign capital inflows. Domestic savings are from three sources -- households, private and public sector. Household savings form the largest part of total savings. As domestic savings contributes the most to capital formation, it can also be a limiting factor to investments. The paper deals with changing pattern of Household savings, its shift away from capital (financial) markets towards unproductive assets like gold and possibilities of channelization household savings to investment rather than speculative assets. The paper looks at the current policy incentives in terms of tax to boost capital market investment and whether it has served the purpose of long term capital formation. The current savings environment indicates a high proportion being in physical rather than financial assets. Within financial assets derivatives are preferred over the cash equity. We propose that an investment of incentive structure should support a pyramid where the small investors would hold maximum in the less risky assets and reduce the holdings as they move towards risky assets. Our paper is organized as, section (2) studies trends in current macro-economic scenario in terms of the savings; section (3), deals with, the capital formation and share of capital markets in terms of raising new capital. In section (4), we look at the current investment pattern in Indian capital markets and the incentives provides to boost trading in the equity and derivative products. Section (5) we give our proposal on the layered approach to investment architecture. Finally, section (6) concludes the paper.
Topic:: Finance, Economy, Capital Flows, and Investment
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Asia

35559. How Will Bihar Shake Out?

Author:: Neelanjan Sircar, Bhanu Joshi, and Ashish Ranjan
Publication Date:: 11-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: The exit polls are out in Bihar, and we are none the wiser. It is seemingly a photo finish between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) and the Janata Dal United [JD(U)]-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)-Congress Grand Alliance. The Bihar election is ending as it began, full of theatre and intrigue. We can only guess how it ends. We were making our way to East Champaran; we didn’t realise Narendra Modi’s rally would be in Gopalganj district that day. The rally was over, but traffic had stopped moving 2 km from the rally site; we would be stuck at the same spot for the next few hours. Nowhere else to go, we got out of the car and started chatting with rally-goers. An exuberant BJP supporter exclaimed, “We have 8-10 lakh people today!” This was clearly an overestimate, but the crowd was bigger than we had seen elsewhere. We stopped in at a roadside stand where 4-5 men were being served their thalis and asked from where they had come to attend the rally. “Dewaria,” responded one man (Dewaria is in Uttar Pradesh (UP), not Bihar). He went on, “None of us are from Bihar. People are coming from Gorakhpur, Kushinagar, Allahabad. The Party gives us enough money to eat lunch as well.” The Muslim shopkeeper who was cooking for them, the only person there who would actually be voting in Bihar, was clearly supporting the Grand Alliance, but he was happy for the extra money generated from the rally. The real reason for the traffic bottleneck then became clear. The road had narrowed to a single lane. While we headed further into Bihar, bus after bus, each with a “UP” license plate, was headed the other way. We analysts often mistakenly use rallies to gauge the hawa for a party. But, ultimately, rallies are about theatre and spectacle, while elections are won on the strength of the ground-level campaign. Privately, a section of BJP workers have been telling us that they can now see the NDA losing in this election, not something we heard in the first couple of weeks of the campaign. In our previous piece, using available data, we argued that the NDA would have to do very well in the third and fourth phases of this five-phase election if it is to win, something that even BJP leaders have now said publicly. Given that the NDA was well ahead in 2014, the NDA might still pull off this victory. It is clear, however, that the Grand Alliance has run a stronger ground campaign than the NDA, and that the campaign has had a major impact on changing voters’ minds. The NDA now seems unlikely to get near the 172 assembly constituency (AC) segments it won in 2014. In the remainder of this piece, we assess the structure of the Grand Alliance, how it shaped the campaign, as well as how the campaigns, for both NDA and the Grand Alliance, conducted themselves during this election.
Topic:: Government, Politics, and Elections
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Asia

35560. Elaborating in the INDC context

Author:: Neha B. Joseph
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Several countries have embarked on nationwide processes to devise their ‘contributions’ towards a new global climate agreement set to be adopted at Paris in 2015. Sixty-two countries have already communicated their contributions to the UNFCCC, in pledges covering around 62.9% of global emissions in 2012. These contributions, formally known as ‘intended nationally determined contributions’ (INDCs) are expected to be the bedrock of post 2020 climate action and the building blocks of the 2015 climate deal, that is currently being negotiated by Parties. This paper discusses the emergence of this concept and outlines some of the legal and technical aspects of a contribution and their implications on ambition, adequacy and political feasibility. Section 3 analyses pledges in the submitted INDCs, with a special focus on G20 countries. The term ‘INDC’ first emerged in 2013 at the Warsaw negotiations of the Conference of Parties (COP) in a decision inviting Parties “to initiate or intensify domestic preparationsfor their intended nationally determined contributions….. and to communicate them well in advance of the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (by the first quarter of 2015 by those Parties ready to do so)” For developed countries, INDCs will replace their Kyoto Protocol commitments; for developing countries, Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) will continue to be in force as implementation tools supporting the mitigation component of their INDCs. Over the past year, countries have been negotiating to iron out differences on issues like differentiation, legal nature, scope, form and review of contributions with varying levels of success on each front.
Topic:: Climate Change, Diplomacy, Environment, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Legislation
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, Asia, and Global Focus

35561. Exclusion, Informality, and Predation in the Cities of Delhi

Author:: Cities of Delhi Team
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Delhi is India’s richest city and as the capital of the nation has long enjoyed favourable treatment from the Centre. As the home to the country’s national bureaucracies, it also benefits from a large base of secure, well-paid, government jobs. Over the last decade the city has grown at an average real rate of 10 percent, and has benefitted from a dramatic increase in large-scale infrastructure development. Yet, despite these advantages, Delhi is a deeply divided city marked by layers of social exclusion. In the modern imaginary, the city represents the promise of freedom and opportunity. It marks a social space that is less constrained by traditional identities and one in which greater social interaction and density support economic dynamism. If development must, as Amartya Sen has so influentially argued, be based on strengthening basic capabilities, then the city can surely be a privileged site of capability-enhancement. Indeed, the migrants who flood the city often come in search of better livelihoods, education, health, and basic services. But as any resident of Delhi knows, the quality of such services varies dramatically across neighbourhoods, and the part of the city one lives in significantly impacts one’s ability to take full advantage of what the city has to offer. The Cities of Delhi (CoD) project starts with the simple recognition that India’s capital is marked by different settlement types, defined by diverse degrees of formality, legality, and tenure, which taken together produce a highly differentiated pattern of access to basic services. This report provides an overview of the findings from CoD. It builds directly on the place, process, and institution reports available at citiesofdelhi.cprindia.org, but in no way substitutes for these reports, all of which stand on their own as original empirical contributions. This overview is instead a synthesis, an effort to tie together the findings from the reports, to paint a broad picture of patterns of unequal access to basic services in the city and to provide an analysis of how these patterns of inequality are linked to structures and practices of governance.
Topic:: Development, Urbanization, Inequality, Economy, and Capital Flows
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Asia

35562. The Institutionalisation of Climate Policy in India: Designing a Development-Focused, Co-Benefits Based Approach

Author:: Navroz K. Dubash and Neha B. Joseph
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: While there is growing attention to climate policy, effective coordination, design and implementation of policy require attention to institutional design for climate governance. This paper examines the case of India, organized around three periods: pre-2007; 2007–2009 and 2010-mid-2014, providing institutional charts for each. Several key themes emerge. First, the formation of climate institutions have frequently been driven by international negotiations, even while filtered through domestic context. Second, once established, institutions tend not to be stable or long-lasting. Third, while various efforts at knowledge generation have been attempted, they do not add up to a mechanism for sustained and consistent strategic thinking on climate change. Fourth, coordination across government has been uneven and episodic, reaching a high point with a specialised envoy in the Prime Minister’s Office. Fifth, the overall capacity within government, in terms of specialised skills and sheer numbers of personnel remains limited. Sixth, capacity shortfalls are exacerbated by closed structures of governance that only partially draw on external expertise. Seventh, institutional structures are not explicitly designed to enable India’s stated objective of climate policy in the context of development, which implies specific attention to co-benefits and mainstreaming.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Government, Policy Implementation, and Institutions
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Asia

35563. The Inscription of Technology in Life

Author:: Rajshree Chandra
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: With innovation in the genetic engineering now being rewarded in the form of intellectual property rights, there are new things that are beginning to count as property and as objects of human invention – plant varieties, seeds, germplasm, genetic sequences, DNA and so on. To bring the realm of “biology” within the ambit of intellectual property, to juridify aspects of the biological as products of human invention is to bring new epistemic objects into visibility. While these are revealed through practices of biotechnology, law translates it into a capacity for monopolistic appropriation for biotech innovators. The new correlatives of innovation and intellectual property re-engineer not just the biology of an organism, but the very categories that organized property and intellectual property. What instrumentalities of technology and law co-produce biotic property? I examine these instrumentalities in a two paper series: while the first paper seeks to lay out the work of technology in the creation of new biological artefacts, and consequently new economic spaces and property claims, the second paper would seek to examine the role of law in translating inventive claims as property claims.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Intellectual Property/Copyright, and Law
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Global Focus

35564. Quality and Accountability in Healthcare Delivery: Audit Evidence from Primary Care Providers in India

Author:: Jishnu Das, Alaka Holla, Aakash Mohpal, and Karthik Muralidharan
Publication Date:: 02-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: We present among the first direct evidence on the quality of healthcare in low-income settings using a unique and original set of audit studies, where standardized patients were presented to a nearly-representative sample of rural public and private primary care providers in the Indian state of Madhya Pradesh. We report three main findings. First, private providers are mostly unqualified but spent more time with patients, and completed more items on a checklist of essential history and examination items than public providers, while being no different in their diagnostic and treatment accuracy. Second, we identify the private practices of qualified public sector doctors, and show that the same doctors exert higher effort and are more likely to provide correct treatment in their private practices. Third, we find a strong positive correlation between provider effort and prices charged in the private sector, whereas we find no correlation between effort and wages in the public sector. Our results suggest that market-based accountability in the unregulated private sector may be providing better incentives for provider effort than administrative accountability in the public sector in this setting. While the overall quality of care is low in both the public and private sectors, these differences in provider effort may partly explain the dominant market share of fee-charging private providers even in the presence of a system of free public healthcare.
Topic:: Government, Health, Privatization, Health Care Policy, Social Policy, and Rural
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Asia

35565. India’s Sustainable Development Led Approach to Climate Mitigation for Paris

Author:: Navroz K. Dubash
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: What should India put forward as the mitigation component of its climate contribution? India has dual interests in climate negotiations: safeguarding adequate energy for development, and promoting an effective international agreement to limit its climate vulnerability. To balance these interests, India should pledge well-developed sector-specific actions that maximize synergies across development and climate outcomes. This approach will avoid lock-in to a high carbon growth path while enhancing development. Sectoral actions could include an additional component conditional on availability of international climate finance. In addition, an updated emissions intensity target would serve as a useful complement to sectorally focused action.
Topic:: Climate Change, Development, Energy Policy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Global Focus

35566. Physician Shortages in the Indian Public Sector

Author:: Anjali Chikersal
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: India is one of the few countries that has been estimated to have a “critical” shortage of health workers and therefore unlikely to be able to provide essential health interventions to its people (WHO 2006). The dire impacts of these shortages are evident from the fact that it has fallen short of meeting its MDG goals on several fronts. As the current discourse on Universal Health Care debates the means of expanding coverage to all citizens, the one aspect universally agreed upon is the persistent challenge that a shortage of health workforce in the public sector poses, and the pressing need to address this gap. This policy brief outlines the core issues at the root of the problem and examines the reasons for the severe shortages in the key element of this workforce, the physicians, in the Indian public sector. It then provides an overview of WHO’s Global Policy Recommendations to address this challenge and looks at the strategies that various Indian states have so far adopted. Finally, it offers a set of practical and goal oriented recommendations aimed at directly and urgently addressing the challenge in the Indian context.
Topic:: Health, Governance, Health Care Policy, Public Policy, and Public Sector
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

35567. The Curious Case of GDP Growth

Author:: Rajiv Kumar and Geetima Das Krishna
Publication Date:: 05-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: The Central Statistics Office (CSO), the custodian of Indian statistics, has faced a lot of questioning after the release of the new GDP series with 2011-12 as base. The RBI, Ministry of Finance, IMF, several credit rating agencies have all questioned the validity of the revisions. Some analysts like Ruchir Sharma of Morgan Stanley have gone as far as to assert that these revisions if not corrected will make Indian statics as suspect as Chinese GDP data in the past. This will be a real pity. The extent of the revisions is shown in Table 1 below. With the new base year of 2012-13, GDP growth in FY 14 (2013-14) has been revised upwards to 6.6% at factor cost and a whopping 6.9% at market prices. This represents about 2% increase in GDP growth over the earlier estimate of 5%. Surely, such a large scale revision will or should significantly affect the understanding of the underlying economic phenomenon and lead to a marked policy shift. Contrary to what Surjit S Bhalla (SSB) would have us believe, not even the government is taking the revised estimates seriously enough as reflected in a lack of any change in policy direction.
Topic:: Political Economy, GDP, Economy, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: South Asia and India

35568. Macroeconomic Update: Early Signs of Rise in Investment

Author:: Geetima Das Krishna and Rajiv Kumar
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: Economic recovery remains fragile on the back of a weak consumption demand. Sustained high growth will be achieved only with an upturn in the investment cycle. The government seems to have understood the importance of pump-priming the capex cycle directly through higher public capital expenditure and front loading the expenditure. While private investment remains muted due to stressed corporate balance sheets, weak external and domestic demand prospects and commercial banks’ cautious approach to expanding credit, there are some early signs that the private investment cycle is likely to turn around in the next six to nine months.
Topic:: Government, Economic Growth, Banks, Investment, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Asia

35569. Macroeconomic Update: Indian Exports: Loss of Global Competitiveness

Author:: Rajiv Kumar and Geetima Das Krishna
Publication Date:: 06-2015
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Centre for Policy Research, India
Abstract:: India’s exports have declined for six consecutive monthssince December 2014 with an average decline of 13.85% yoy. The decline was broad-based. Even exports of Manufactured goods trended lower during this time and failed to compensate for the fall in nominal value of commodity exports, which declined due to a huge erosion of global commodity and oil prices. India’s exports seem to have become more reliant on global commodity prices in recent years. In line with global crude oil prices, India’s monthly petroleum exports that peaked in July’14 at $7 billion shrunk to mere $2.4 billion in May 2015, declining at an average of 52% since the start of the year. Iron ore exports having peaked at $509.5 million in December 2011 moved from $129.5 million in April 2014 to $10 million in May 2015. It is instructive to take a longer term perspective of export performance (Please see Chart I below). Average export growth hasremained almoststagnantsince January 2012 after a sharp bounce back from the collapse in the first and second quarters of 2009, induced by the global financial crisis. Export growth since October 2011 (50 months) is much lower than the robust 20% average clocked during the seven year period of April 2002- March 2009. (marginally lower than the 23% rate of growth assumed for the five year period of 2015-16 to 2020-21 in the Foreign Trade Policy announced in early 2015).
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Oil, Economic Growth, Commodities, Exports, and Macroeconomics
Political Geography:: South Asia, India, and Global Markets

35570. Full Issue: Money & War

Author:: Sarah Detzner, James Copnall, Alex de Waal, Ian M. Ralby, Joshua Stanton, Ibrahim Warde, Leon Whyte, Richard Weitz, Jessica Knight, John H. Maurer, Alexander Tabarrok, Alex Nowrasteh, Tom Keatinge, Emily Knowles, Karolina MacLachlan, Andrew Lebovich, Caroline Troein, and Anne Moulakis
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The Fletcher Security Review: Managed and edited by students at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, we build on the Fletcher School’s strong traditions of combining scholarship with practice, fostering close interdisciplinary collaboration, and acting as a vehicle for groundbreaking discussion of international security. We believe that by leveraging these strengths – seeking input from established and up-and-coming scholars, practitioners, and analysts from around the world on topics deserving of greater attention – we can promote genuinely unique ways of looking at the future of security. Each issue of the Review is centered around a broad theme – in this issue, we tackle “Money & War.” Money influences every aspect of warfare, conventional or unconventional. No nationstate military, insurgent group, terrorist network, trans-national criminal organization, or hybrid actor can be understood, or countered, without knowing where the money is coming from – as well as where, and how, it gets spent. Evolutions and revolutions in financial tools and practices quickly translate to transformations in military affairs, and some cases, vice versa.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Economics, Human Rights, Governance, Sanctions, Military Affairs, Finance, Islamic State, Navy, Arab Spring, Maritime, Conflict, Multilateralism, Islamism, Drugs, and Currency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Africa, China, Iran, Sudan, Darfur, Middle East, Asia, North Korea, Mali, Asia-Pacific, Sahel, United States of America, and North America

35571. Nonviolent Struggle Versus the Islamic State: A Strategic Perspective

Author:: Alia Braley and Srdja Popovic
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Attacking terrorism at its root, through slow and incremental cultural change, will pay off in the end, but this process is a difficult sell to those facing IS now. Such a long-term view neither benefits the people struggling to survive each day under IS’s murderous and authoritarian reign, nor does it equip the international security community concerned about IS’s immediate threat to regional stability. There is another solution. If what is needed is a relatively rapid rearrangement of social conditions that would cut off IS’s critical sources of power, then there may be no better route than collective nonviolent action undertaken by Iraqi and Syrian civilians. Collective nonviolent movements have been shown to be more effective than violent movements, even against highly violent or authoritarian opponents. Such a movement might take a page from IS’s own book, and tap into the same sources of power that have been indispensible to its success. After all, IS did not attract an army of nearly 30,000 fighters and capture a cumulative swathe of land larger than the United Kingdom merely because it had weapons. IS has flourished by successfully filling at least two critical power vacuums within Iraqi and Syrian society. It has seized upon a powerful narrative during a time of turbulence and confusion, and it has delivered necessary human services in places where the state has proved incompetent. However, a nonviolent collective movement of Syrian and Iraqi citizens could fill these power vacuums much more convincingly than IS, and in so doing, cripple IS’s power in the short term and impede the growth of new terrorist movements in the long term...
Topic:: Security, Terrorism, Authoritarianism, Islamic State, and Civilians
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, and Syria

35572. An Excerpt from the Upcoming Book - Borderless Wars: Civil-Military Disorder and Legal Uncertainty

Author:: Antonia Chayes
Publication Date:: 08-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Drones. Global data networks. The rise, and eventual primacy, of non-international armed conflict. All things the framers of the Geneva Conventions could have never fully conceived when doing their noble work in 1949; all things that rule warfare in the world today. So, how do we legally employ these new tools in these new circumstances? In her latest book, Antonia Chayes, former Under Secretary of the Air Force, explores the current legal underpinnings of counterinsurgency, counterterrorism, and cyber warfare, rooting out the ambiguities present within each realm, and telling the narrative of how these ambiguities have come to shape international security today. The grounded and creative solutions that she offers in terms of role definition and transparency will provide crucial guidance as the United States continues to navigate the murky modern military-legal landscape. This excerpt is a chapter from Borderless Wars: Civil-Military Disorder and Legal Uncertainty forthcoming in 2016 from Cambridge University Press.
Topic:: International Law, Counterinsurgency, Law, Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, Drones, Conflict, Borders, and Law of Armed Conflict
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Global Focus, and United States of America

35573. The Littoral World

Author:: Howard J. Fuller
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The role of seapower in nurturing American security and prosperity has long been exaggerated, if not wholly misrepresented. Throughout the nineteenth century, the nation’s first generations of leaders exhibited a healthy skepticism toward free trade and the maritime hegemony of the British Empire. By focusing on domination of the country’s littoral space during the Civil War, the U.S. Navy succeeded in shielding the Union from European interference. It was not the assumption of the British mantle that safeguarded the nation; rather, U.S. preeminence was secured by rejection of maritime overreach. Strong anti-British tariffs and industrial protectionism were the cornerstones of sustained commercial growth and genuine national independence. The unique problem with seapower, even in the contemporary period, is how easily we can glorify it. We love the sea, and mighty ships, and we tend to flaunt what we love, but this relationship has no place in a grand strategy that acknowledges the limited historical contribution of free trade to the American economy.
Topic:: Security, History, Economy, Maritime, Oceans and Seas, Trade, and Seapower
Political Geography:: Britain, North America, United States of America, and Oceans

35574. Violence in Latin America: FSR Interviews Mónica Serrano

Author:: Mónica Serrano
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Mónica Serrano is Professor of International Relations at El Colegio de México, Senior Research Associate at the Centre for International Studies, Oxford University and a Senior Fellow at the Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies, CUNY. Between 2008 and 2011, as Executive Director of the Global Centre for the Responsibility to Protect, she worked closely with the UN and other human rights organizations to build momentum behind an emerging international norm to prevent mass atrocities. Dr. Serrano has written extensively on international security, and on the international relations of Latin America, with particular reference to international institutions, security, human rights, transnational crime and civil-military relations.
Topic:: Crime, Globalization, Law Enforcement, Financial Crimes, Violence, Interview, International Crime, and Responsibility to Protect (R2P)
Political Geography:: Colombia, Latin America, and Mexico

35575. The Four Horseman of the Modern World: FSR Interviews Dr. Harlan Ullman

Author:: Harlan Ullman
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Dr. Harlan Ullman, a distinguished Fletcher School alumnus, sat down with the Fletcher Security Review recently to discuss the past, present, and future of U.S. and global security, as well as his most recent book, A Handful of Bullets: How the Murder of Archduke Franz Ferdinand Still Menaces the Peace. He is Chairman of the Killowen Group, which advises leaders in business and government; Chairman of CNIGuard Ltd and CNIGuard Inc. which are infrastructure protection firms; Senior Advisor at the Atlantic Council and Business Executives for National Security, both in Washington, D.C.; on the Advisory Board for the Supreme Allied Commander Europe; and Director Emeritus of the Wall Street Fund, one of the nation’s first mutual funds. A former naval officer with 150 combat operations and missions in Vietnam in patrol boats and other commands at sea, he was principal author of the ’Shock and Awe’ doctrine, which was released in 1996. With seven books and thousands of articles and columns to his credit, he was made UPI’s Arnaud de Borchgrave distinguished columnist earlier this year.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, War, History, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:: Iraq and United States of America

35576. Weak Sanctions Breathe Life Into North Korean Defiance of International Community: FSR Interviews Joshua Stanton

Author:: Joshua Stanton
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Joshua Stanton, an attorney in Washington, D.C., has advised the House Foreign Affairs Committee on North Korea-related legislation, including the North Korea Sanctions Enforcement Act, and blogs at OneFreeKorea. His article, "North Korea: The Myth of Maxed-Out Sanctions", a legal analysis of North Korean sanctions, refuted the idea that there is nothing left that the world community can do to bring them to the negotiating table. In this interview, he expands further on this idea addressing why people think that nothing more can be done and how the Iranian nuclear deal will affect relation with North Korea. The views expressed are solely his own.
Topic:: Security, Diplomacy, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
Political Geography:: Iran, Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

35577. Corruption Threats & International Missions: Practical Guidance for Leaders (A Book Review by Michael Sullivan)

Author:: Michael Sullivan, Mark Pyman, Jodi Vittori, Alan Waldron, and Nick Seymour
Publication Date:: 07-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Over the last 14 years of war, our military developed incredible relationships both within and outside the Department of Defense. The concept of the Joint Force reached its full potential as we relied on one another in places such as Iraq and Afghanistan. We learned how to effectively integrate the talents of our Special Operations Forces and conventional forces on the battlefield. We integrated with other government agencies on the battlefield, ranging from the CIA to USAID, moving the concept of “one team, one fight” forward. We even worked closely with non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and humanitarian organizations, often finding ourselves in similar areas with similar goals. As we continue to downsize in Afghanistan and our efforts in Iraq remain at the advisory level, my biggest fear is that we forget the lessons we have paid for with the blood and sweat of our brothers and sisters. It is absolutely critical that the military retain the myriad lessons learned from these 14 years for future conflicts. Toward the goal of capturing important lessons learned, Transparency International UK’s Defence and Security Programme has published the valuable handbook, “Corruption Threats and International Missions: Practical Guidance for Leaders.” This well-written and easy-to-use document will be invaluable to leaders of any organization conducting operations in areas where corruption exists, but especially for our military leaders of today and tomorrow.
Topic:: Defense Policy, Corruption, Peacekeeping, and Book Review
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, United Kingdom, and United States of America

35578. Nip It in the Bud: Disrupting Insurgent Financial Networks Before They Take Root

Author:: Tom Keatinge
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The rapid rise of Islamic State[1] has galvanised the international community to take action to contain it. One issue in particular – financing – has drawn increasing attention from policy-makers. As U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel noted in August 2014, "ISIL is as sophisticated and well-funded as any group that we have seen. They’re beyond just a terrorist group…they are tremendously well funded."[2] He elaborated on this further in a September testimony to the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee, stating that the United States would work with international partners "to cut off ISIL’s funding" and that "the Department of Treasury’s Office of Terrorism and Financial Intelligence is working to disrupt ISIL’s financing and expose their activities."[3] This decision by international partners to jointly focus on finance disruption has resulted in a bombing campaign partly targeting oil refineries (a major source of funds for Islamic State) and in a UN Security Council Resolution that exhorts the international community to inhibit foreign terrorist fighter travel and otherwise disrupt financial support.[4] But will it work? This article will give necessary broader context on this key question by exploring in more general terms the importance of financing for terrorist and insurgent groups and the extent to which disrupting their funding can reduce the security threat posed by such groups. Specifically considering the evolution of Islamic State, this article will first review the importance of financing in conflict, then assess the way in which funding models develop. It will argue that, once groups move from a reliance on externally sourced funding to generating sufficient internal financing – a path several groups have now followed – disruption becomes significantly more challenging and complex. The international community consistently fails to prioritise the early disruption of terrorist and insurgent financing – an attitude that needs to change...
Topic:: Defense Policy, Counterinsurgency, Finance, Islamic State, and Financial Crimes
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, Syria, and Global Focus

35579. Pulling Apart at the Seams: How the Smuggling and Narcotics Trade Are Helping to Reshape Governance in the Sahel

Author:: Andrew Lebovich
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The jihadist takeover of northern Mali in mid-2012 caught many regional observers by surprise. For years, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and later the AQIM splinter group, the Movement for Oneness and Jihad in West Africa (MUJAO in French), were seen largely as smugglers, criminals, and “narco-traffickers.” This perception led to a curious process by which some analysts dismissed the risk posed by these groups, while others (chiefly, Western governments) developed a near obsession with the prospect that money from smuggling operations, particularly drugs, would finance jihadist activity in the Sahara and Sahel.[1] While regional experts have since aggressively critiqued the notion of extensive ties between Sahelian militant groups and smuggling, particularly in the narcotics trade,[2] it is nonetheless important to assess the extent of these connections and how they fit into a larger regional context. The purported link between cocaine trade and militant groups gained traction among outside observers due to the appearance of both in northern Mali at approximately the same time. Cocaine first began circulating through and in northern Mali in the early 2000s, while the group that would become AQIM, the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), achieved notorious renown in 2003 with the kidnapping of 32 Europeans in southern Algeria. [3] Analysts also focused extensively on cocaine, despite the large circulation through and within the region of cannabis products, amphetamines, and other drugs.[4] However, the rise of smuggling networks and economies in the region long preceded the arrival of jihadist militancy. As anthropologist Judith Scheele and others have noted, smuggling in northern Mali began in the 1960s and 1970s with the trade in foodstuffs, especially powdered milk and pasta produced in Algeria, which was then re-sold in Mali and northern Niger.[5] In the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s, illicit or semi-licit (grey market) trades emerged, including the smuggling of subsidized petrol from Libya and Algeria into the Sahara, as well as the two-way movement of weapons, counterfeit or contraband cigarettes, and people.[6] This smuggling was itself part of an older process in a region that has always depended on the circulation of people and goods for survival...
Topic:: Crime, Al Qaeda, Borders, Drugs, and Smuggling
Political Geography:: Africa, Libya, Algeria, Mali, Sahel, Niger, and Sahara

35580. Trading Security: A Case Study on Maritime Security Decision Points in the Context of Global Trade

Author:: Caroline Troein and Anne Moulakis
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The term maritime security often evokes destroyers and aircraft carriers, disputes over territorial waters or islands, or piracy and terrorist attacks such as the USS Cole bombing in 2000. High profile crises can lead us to forget that maritime security is an everyday event; it is about enabling safe transit. Each step within the maritime transport of goods has security challenges and considerations. At the same time, the continued stability and effectiveness of maritime trade is itself a broader security matter of importance to consumers, businesses, and governments. With the “weaponization of finance” maritime trade will play a central role in economic actions being taken out of geopolitical concerns.
Topic:: Security, Maritime Commerce, Territorial Disputes, Geopolitics, Maritime, and Trade
Political Geography:: Global Focus and Oceans

35581. Money and War: Corruption as the Hidden Enemy of Mission Success

Author:: Emily Knowles and Karolina MacLachlan
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Corruption, instability, and conflict tend to go hand in hand. Twelve of the fifteen lowest-ranking countries on Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index are currently experiencing violent insurgencies, extremist activity, or other signs of deep-seated instability. [1] Systemic, embedded corruption is a thread that runs through such seemingly disparate events as the outbreak of the Arab Spring, the conflict in Ukraine, the failure of the Malian army in 2012, the growth of Boko Haram in Nigeria, and the retreat of the Iraqi security forces in the face of ISIS. However, the effects of corruption are not limited to exacerbating the risk of conflict; corruption also makes it more difficult for states to respond to threats and for international institutions and other actors to offer effective assistance.[2] Assistance to fragile and failing states tends to include two types of engagement: international peacekeeping and/or stabilization operations and defense capacity building (i.e. assistance to the recipient states’ security forces). But without anticipating and mitigating the risks that corruption poses, the international community risks the intent of security assistance being subverted, the assistance wasted, and the success rate of stabilization operations being severely impaired. In particular, misappropriation of funds, vanishing resources, and a reliance on malign power-brokers can irreparably damage the operational success of a mission. This article is based on the research investigating the international community’s approach (or lack thereof) to tackling corruption in Afghanistan carried out by Transparency International UK’s global Defence and Security Programme (TI-DSP) and based on over 75 interviews with civilian and military officials. This work is supported by insights from TI-DSP’s long-term engagement in the Building Integrity training for the Afghan National Army and Afghan National Police.[3] In the resulting report, we argue that corruption has had a significant impact on ISAF mission success and that the international community’s reaction to corrupt practices was too little, too late. We point to three main ways in which corruption and uncontrolled money flows can diminish the effectiveness of the mission and offer a planning and risk assessment framework as the first step toward addressing corruption risks on operations...
Topic:: Security, Corruption, Peacekeeping, Arab Spring, Conflict, and Transparency
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, United Kingdom, Ukraine, Middle East, Nigeria, and Mali

35582. Privateers! Their History and Future

Author:: Alexander Tabarrok and Alex Nowrasteh
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Government employment of private military firms is not a new phenomenon. During the Age of Sail, naval powers issued privateering licenses to shipowners, allowing and encouraging them to raid enemy commerce and attack foreign navies during times of war – a system that bears several similarities to modern military contracting. But private enterprise did not go to war in a legal vacuum. How do countries make the incentives for private security firms align with national policy in the 21st century?
Topic:: History, Maritime Commerce, Economy, and Trade
Political Geography:: Britain, Global Focus, United States of America, and Oceans

35583. Sanctions, Economic Mismanagement, and the Iranian Currency Crisis, 2010 - 2012

Author:: Jessica Knight
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: In October 2012, the Iranian rial earned the unwelcome distinction of the world’s least valued currency. It had lost more than 80% of its open market value in the previous two years, crashing from 9,800 to 37,000 rials (IRR) per U.S. dollar (USD). As the rial lost value, demand for more reliable hard currencies surged until it far exceeded the Central Bank of Iran’s (CBI) official supply. Many western analysts, taking their cue from U.S. officials, claimed this devaluation proved the efficacy of international sanctions. Did it really?
Topic:: Financial Crisis, Sanctions, Economy, and Currency
Political Geography:: Iran, Middle East, and United States of America

35584. The State of the Sudans: An Interview with James Copnall

Author:: James Copnall
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: A prolific writer and reporter, James Copnall was the BBC’s Sudan correspondent from 2009- 12 and covered South Sudan’s independence, the Darfur war, rebellions, and clashes between both the Sudans. He has also reported from over twenty other African nations. His latest book, A Poisonous Thorn in Our Hearts - Sudan and South Sudan’s Bitter and Incomplete Divorce deals extensively with the conflict engulfing the Sudans from various perspectives. Earlier this year, he sat down with the Fletcher Security Review to give some perspective on recent developments.
Topic:: War, Conflict, Journalism, and Interview
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, and South Sudan

35585. Understanding "The Political Marketplace" and the Roots of Persistent Conflict: An Interview with Professor Alex de Waal

Author:: Alex de Waal
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: As the Executive Director of the World Peace Foundation, Professor Alex de Waal is considered one of the foremost experts on Sudan and the Horn of Africa. His scholarly work and practice has also probed humanitarian crisis and response, human rights, HIV/AIDS and governance in Africa, and conflict and peace-building. In 1988, he received a D.Phil. in social anthropology at Nuffield College, Oxford for his thesis on the 1984-5 Darfur famine in Sudan. He was the first chairman of the Mines Advisory Group at the beginning of the International Campaign to Ban Landmines. He set up two independent human rights organizations, African Rights (1993) and Justice Africa (1999), focusing respectively on documenting human rights abuses and developing policies to respond to human rights crises, notably in Rwanda, Somalia and Sudan. From 1997 to 2001, he focused on avenues to peaceful resolution of the second Sudanese Civil War. In 2001, he returned to his work on health in Africa, writing on the intersection of HIV/AIDS, poverty and governance, and initiated the Commission on HIV/AIDS and Governance in Africa. During 2005-06, deWaal was seconded to the African Union mediation team for Darfur and from 2009-11 served as senior adviser to the African Union High-Level Implementation Panel for Sudan. He was on the list of Foreign Policy’s 100 most influential public intellectuals in 2008 and Atlantic Monthly’s 27 “brave thinkers” in 2009.
Topic:: Economics, Human Rights, Politics, Humanitarian Intervention, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Africa, Sudan, Darfur, and Ethiopia

35586. Avatars of Checkbook Diplomacy: From the Afghan Jihad to the Arab Spring

Author:: Ibrahim Warde
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The United States and Saudi Arabia lavished money and weapons on unsavory characters during the anti-Soviet jihad of the 1980s, giving little thought to the possibility of a blowback or boomerang effect—that they would in effect be funding and arming their future enemies. It is indeed ironic that the principal bankrollers of the jihad later became the main targets of offshoots of that jihad. A non-negligible part of the money and weapons sent by the United States to Iraq, in particular as part of the “Sunni awakening”, is now in the hands of extremists.With the near-exclusive focus on military developments, the financial front of the war on terror is all but ignored. This article traces the evolution of checkbook diplomacy in conflicts involving the Islamic world.
Topic:: Diplomacy, History, Finance, Weapons, Islamism, War on Terror, and Jihad
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

35587. Enough to Go Around? Money Matters Complicate U.S. Strategic Rebalance to Asia-Pacific

Author:: Leon Whyte and Richard Weitz
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The U.S. Strategic Rebalance to Asia – also known as the “Asia Pivot” – has been a cornerstone of the Obama administration’s foreign policy since 2011. Hillary Clinton offered a detailed explaination of the concept in a 2011 Foreign Policy article.[1] The basic idea behind the Rebalance is that many U.S. core economic and security interests are increasingly centered in the Asia-Pacific region, so the United States needs to allocate more diplomatic, economic, military, and other assets towards the region. The Strategic Rebalance would do just that. The Defence Strategic Guidance relaeased by the Defence Department in January 2012 made supporting the rebalance a key Pentagon objective. The Obama Administration accordingly plans to increase the percentage of naval assets in the Pacific to 60 percent by 2020[2] in addition to stationing 2,500 Marines in Darwin, Australia, and 4 littoral combat ships in Singapore.[3][4] Given the region’s economic importance, this makes sense. The Asia-Pacific region accounted for 40 percent of global economic growth in 2013. In 2012, the U.S. exports to the region totaled $555 billion, which supported 2.8 million U.S. jobs.[5]
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, and Economy
Political Geography:: Asia-Pacific and United States of America

35588. Accountability for Armed Contractors

Author:: Ian M. Ralby
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: On 16 September 2007, the accountability of private armed contractors became a global concern. A team of armed guards from the US company Blackwater Worldwide, operating on a US State Department contract, opened fire that day in Baghdad’s Nisor Square, killing seventeen Iraqi civilians and injuring an additional twenty. It took more than seven years before four of the individuals responsible were ultimately convicted of either first degree murder or voluntary manslaughter by a jury in a U.S. Federal District Court. A fifth member of the Blackwater team had previously pleaded guilty to manslaughter.[1] The initial lack of consequences and the slow speed of justice provided the watchful world with strong evidence that armed contractors operate in a zone of legal twilight, devoid of accountability. The rise of private armed contracting was one of the most distinctive operational developments of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Erik Prince, founder of Blackwater, famously stated: “Our corporate goal is to do for the national security apparatus what FedEx did to the postal service.”[2] Throughout both conflicts, the hiring policies of several Western governments, particularly those of the United States, helped Blackwater and numerous other companies move toward that goal. By December 2008, for example, 69% of the United States’ total force in Afghanistan was comprised of private contractors, roughly 15% of which were armed.[3] While there are no reliable statistics on the size of the global private armed security industry, there is little doubt that it has grown and contracted with the surge and decline of Western engagement in armed conflict. New conflicts on the horizon, however, suggest the possibility of a resurgence of the industry, reigniting concerns about accountability. The proliferation of private armed security companies has coincided with a proliferation of initiatives aimed at developing accountability for the industry. Numerous codes, standards, mechanisms and proposals – developed by governments, international organizations, civil society groups, private companies, trade associations, individuals, academics and multi-stakeholder bodies – have sought to address different issues surrounding armed contractors. Most of them, however, have been developed in response to incidents that already occurred. This reactive approach to accountability, while useful for addressing past problems, may leave the industry exposed to future problems. In other words, a code, standard or mechanism set up to prevent another Nisor Square incident may be very effective in doing so, but may fail to prevent a different and even more worrying incident in the future. This article begins with a brief overview of the most credible accountability initiatives, suggesting that the resulting collection forms a patchwork, rather than a framework for governing the conduct of armed contractors. The analysis then focuses on the process of selecting contractors, with a particular emphasis on the US Government. While cost has been a key factor in determining selection, the various initiatives discussed have made it possible for accountability and quality to be added as essential metrics. Ultimately, however, the failure of the accountability initiatives to remain current, much less forward-looking, means that the objective determinants of ‘accountability and quality’ may not be fit for purpose as the US and other Western powers begin to engage the services of armed contractors for assistance in new conflicts...
Topic:: Security, War, Governance, Military Affairs, Regulation, and Accountability
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iraq, Middle East, and United States of America

35589. Embattled Superpowers

Author:: John H. Maurer
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: On the eve of the Second World War, the noted journalist John Gunther could still maintain that: “Great Britain, as everyone knows, is the greatest Asiatic power.”[1] The British Empire in Asia controlled a vast territory and large population, sweeping in a great arc from New Zealand and Australia in the South Pacific, to Southeast Asia and South China, and on to India and the Middle East. Britain stood as a superpower with economic interests and security commitments stretching around the globe, much as the United States stands today. That position of leadership, however, was endangered. The emergence of major new industrial great powers was transforming the international landscape. These challengers, as they converted their growing economic strength into military power, confronted Britain’s leaders with uncomfortable strategic choices. In Asia, one of those rising challengers, imperial Japan, posed a dangerous threat to Britain’s standing as a world power after it embarked on a policy of expansion. We know the outcome of Japan’s challenge: war and the catastrophic breakdown of Britain’s standing in Asia. The collapse of British power was in part brought about by dynamic changes in technology and the lethality of modern weaponry, particularly the advent of naval aviation, which shifted the naval balance in Japan’s favor. On the eve of war, Britain sought to deter Japan by forming a naval force in the Pacific, known to history as Force Z, consisting of the battleship Prince of Wales and battle cruiser Repulse. Even as Force Z steamed eastward, the Admiralty could spare none of its aircraft carriers, to protect it from air attack. Nor did the Royal Air Force have enough modern aircraft based in the Far East to offer adequate protection for Force Z. Britain’s inability to control the skies meant the Royal Navy could not command the seas, and this permitted the Japanese to land ground forces in Malaya and seize Singapore, the strategic pivot of British defenses in Asia. Not since Yorktown had Britain suffered such a crushing setback. The world’s leading naval power had been bested by a challenger that exploited innovations in technology and doctrine to gain a marked qualitative edge in fighting power.
Topic:: Defense Policy, History, Power Politics, Budget, and Navy
Political Geography:: Britain, Japan, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

35590. North Korea: The Myth of Maxed-Out Sanctions

Author:: Joshua Stanton
Publication Date:: 01-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: On December 19, 2014, President Obama publicly blamed North Korea for the cyberattack against Sony Pictures and for the subsequent cyberterrorism against the American people, and promised to "respond proportionally." Almost immediately thereafter, one could hear a familiar narrative repeated, typified by New York Times correspondent David Sanger, who wrote that "North Korea is under so many sanctions already that adding more seems futile." One could have heard similar arguments in 2006, after North Korea's first nuclear test, and in 2013, after its third nuclear test. A variation of this argument is that “Washington … can do little ... without the cooperation of China.” For years, journalists have quoted “experts” who insisted that U.S. sanctions options against North Korea were exhausted and had failed as an instrument of policy. As a matter of both fact and law, however, that is false; it even suggests that these experts have not read and understood the sanctions authorities. Why does this view persist, then? Some scholars may accept and propagate it because they oppose sanctions as a matter of policy. Others have simply ceased to question a myth that has entered the received wisdom. A true understanding of the potential effectiveness of sanctions first requires an understanding of what these sanctions are, what they are not, and how they work. This article will first summarize the sanctions authorities – U.N. Security Council resolutions, and the U.S. sanctions that should be an important part of the effective enforcement of the measures that the U.N. Security Council has adopted. It will also explain the role of the Treasury Department in regulating the international financial system, and the power this gives the United States to isolate the North Korean government from that system. It will explain which U.S. and U.N. sanctions against North Korea have succeeded and failed, and why. Finally, it will explain what current U.S. national sanctions do, and what they do not do. Only after one understands how little the current sanctions do – and how much they could do – can one begin to understand how to strengthen them into an effective part of a coherent foreign policy...
Topic:: Science and Technology, United Nations, Sanctions, Cybersecurity, and Economy
Political Geography:: Asia, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

35591. Full Issue: Emerging Domains of Security

Author:: Meg Guliford, Thomas McCarthy, Alison Russell, Michael M. Tsai, Po-Chang Huang, Feng-tai Hwang, Ian Easton, Matthew Testerman, Nikolas Ott, Anthony Gilgis, Todd Diamond, Michael Wackenreuter, Sebastian Bruns, Andrew Mark Spencer, Wendy A. Wayman, and Charles Cleveland
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The theme of this special edition is “Emerging Domains of Security.” Coupled with previously unpublished work developed under a prior “Winning Without War” theme, the articles therein honor Professor Martel’s diverse, yet forward-leaning, research interests. This edition maintains the journal’s four traditional sections of policy, history, interviews, and current affairs. Our authors include established academics and practitioners as well as two Fletcher students, Nikolas Ott and Michael Wackenreuter. Each of the articles analyzes critical issues in the study and practice of international security, and our authors make salient arguments about an array of security-related issues. The articles are borne out of countless hours of work by FSR’s dedicated editorial staff. I deeply appreciate the time and effort they devoted to the publication of this volume. They are full-time graduate students who masterfully balanced a host of responsibilities.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Intelligence, International Cooperation, International Law, History, Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, Cybersecurity, Navy, Conflict, Space, Interview, Army, Baath Party, and Norms
Political Geography:: China, Iraq, Europe, Middle East, Taiwan, Germany, Asia-Pacific, Global Focus, and United States of America

35592. Roadmap for a Code of Conduct for Cyberspace

Author:: Thomas McCarthy and Alison Russell
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Professor Martel, author of Grand Strategy in Theory and Practice: The Need for an Effective American Foreign Policy, offers three guiding principles for U.S. grand strategy: rebuilding domestic foundations of power; exercising American leadership to restrain sources of disorder that directly threaten U.S. vital interests; and forging both alliances and partnerships to confront the most pressing threats to global stability.[2] The last of Martel’s three principles foreshadows the three cyber security activities at the heart of the newly released U.S. Department of Defense Cyber Strategy. The three activities around which the new U.S. DoD cyber strategy revolves are: Information sharing and interagency coordination; building bridges to the private sector; and building alliances, coalitions, and partnerships abroad.[3] These three coordinating and collaborating activities are the key to building relationships between actors influencing the development of the cyber domain, and are necessary to identify and counter threats. To advance global cyber security, the Cyber Strategy suggests the U.S. must “build and maintain robust international alliances and partnerships to deter shared threats and increase international security and stability.”[4] As part of this effort, the United States seeks to build security relationships to respond to shifts in the international environment, including sources of disorder. These relationships are built upon trust and cooperation of many actors with varied interests and objectives in cyberspace. Given the wide variety of actors and interests within the cyber domain, establishing relationships of trust based on a shared understanding of acceptable conduct, expected behavior, and governing principles represents a daunting challenge...
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Cybersecurity, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

35593. Special Operations Today: FSR Interviews LTG Cleveland (Ret.) Former Commanding General, USASOC

Author:: Charles Cleveland
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Lieutenant General Charles T. Cleveland, an Army Special Forces Officer, relinquished command of the United States Army Special Operations Command (USASOC) and retired after 37 years of military service on 01 July 2015. He previously commanded the Special Operations Command Central and Special Operations Command South as well as the Combined Joint Special Operations Task Force-North during Operation Iraqi Freedom. LTG Cleveland is a native of Arizona and a 1978 graduate of the United States Military Academy at West Point, New York. His military awards and decorations include the Defense Superior Service Medal and the Legion of Merit Medal.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, Military Affairs, Interview, Army, and Special Operations
Political Geography:: Africa, North America, Panama, and United States of America

35594. Profiles in Security: CW5 Wendy A. Wayman

Author:: Wendy A. Wayman
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Wendy Ann Wayman never imagined she would still be serving her country more than three decades after enlisting in the United States Army, let alone rise to rank of Chief Warrant Officer 5 and become the first Command Chief Warrant Officer for Army Intelligence and Security Command (INSCOM). Born and raised in Aberdeen, South Dakota, CW5 Wayman has traveled the world and advised the highest-ranking military leaders in the United States. She has also amassed a legion of professional colleagues who describe her using such phrases as “no one better,” “shaping the future of military intelligence,” “a consummate professional,” “my dear mentor,” and “a complete badass.” The Fletcher Security Review is honored to feature INSCOM Command Chief Warrant Officer, CW5 Wendy Wayman’s “Profile in Security."
Topic:: Security, Military Affairs, Interview, and Army
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

35595. A 'Bastard' Feudal State: Governance by the Military Class in Late Medieval England

Author:: Andrew Mark Spencer
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: Two key facts about late medieval England: The kingdom had no standing army and was at war for most of the period between 1294 and 1485. Given these circumstances, it might seem ambitious to identify a role for the military of the time in a non-war environment. Nonetheless, this peacetime role existed, and created a state of preparedness that was crucial to success when the kingdom went to war. Under ‘bastard feudalism’ the leaders of the army, trained in war and incubated in a thoroughly military ethos and culture, through their efforts in domestic governance, provided the stability at home and the financial and material resources which were as vital to the victories of the Hundred Years’ War as the much better known and remembered archers of Crecy and Agincourt. This article will provide background into medieval military and landed society before tracing how the governmental role of this group increased alongside ‘bastard feudalism’ in response to the crown’s need to find the resources for war. It will then show how ‘bastard feudalism’ worked for king, nobles and gentry in tandem and how this, in turn, created experienced administrators who were able to support the war effort. ‘Feudalism’ is a term synonymous with the Middle Ages. The feudal pyramid, with the king at the apex, his nobles and knights beneath, and peasants on the bottom, will be familiar to readers from their school days. ‘Bastard feudalism’, on the other hand, is less well-known and usually has currency only in academic journals. Both are highly controversial terms among medievalists and some even deny the existence of one or the other, or both. Most historians, however, would accept that, in England at least, there was a gradual transition from feudalism—where the principal means by which the king or nobleman rewarded his followers was through a permanent grant of land—to ‘bastard feudalism’—where rewards were primarily paid in cash payments. Where historians do not agree, however, is on the timing, causes and results of such a change...
Topic:: War, History, Governance, Feudalism, and Middle Ages
Political Geography:: Europe and England

35596. Moving East and South: U.S. Navy and German Navy Strategy in the Eurasian Theater 1991- 2014, A View from Germany

Author:: Sebastian Bruns
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: The Cold War ended rather suddenly in 1991. With it went the model on which the United States’ maritime strategy of the 1980s had rested. Driven by individuals like John Lehman, President Ronald Reagan’s long-time Secretary of the Navy, that series of strategic documents promulgated a forward, offensive, counter-force approach and the famous ‘600-ship Navy’ force structure. With the formal dissolution of the Soviet Union on December 25, 1991, the sole challenger to U.S. naval power vanished practically overnight. Red Fleet warships were rusting away in port or dismantled altogether. In the United States, the military lost significant human capital through a number of force reduction rounds, which reflected how the U.S. Navy could and would take on the post-Cold War world intellectually. In the wake of this strategic recalibration, allied militaries and their navies—such as the Federal German Navy, soon to be renamed German Navy—also underwent substantial transformations. These were often guided by the shifting geopolitical landscape as well as the popular desire to reduce the inflated defense budgets of Cold War days in order to obtain a peace dividend. This analysis will focus on the Eurasian theater—very broadly speaking, the waters that surround the European and Southwest Asian landmasses[1]—in U.S. and German naval strategy between 1991 and 2014. The maritime sphere has become increasingly important as a domain of emerging security since the end of the Cold War, yet comparatively little time and resources are being devoted to research on naval strategy and relationships between allies at sea. As a result, the use of naval force for political and diplomatic ends and the dynamics of maritime geopolitics have suffered. This essay seeks to underline the challenges that have confronted the U.S. Navy in the past generation and analyze their long-term effects. While the U.S. Navy’s geographic focus and operational interests have increasingly shifted from Europe to the Middle East and Asia, and from control of the “blue water” high seas to the littorals, these key interests should not be overlooked. In the view of the author, the fall of the Soviet Union and the implication that allies like Germany would do more to patrol their own maritime neighborhood provided the U.S. Navy with a convenient reason to de-emphasize their previously highly valued naval hub in the Mediterranean Sea. In rebalancing from the Sixth Fleet area of responsibility (AOR) to other regions of the world, the U.S. Navy accepted the consequences for fleet design and ship numbers, perhaps willingly using it as a bargaining chip for force reduction rounds in Washington, D.C. Implicitly, European allies and the U.S. Air Force[2] were expected to fill the gap left behind in terms of naval presence and crisis response, in particular after the successful campaigns in the Adriatic Sea in responding to unrest and war in the Balkans. European allies, however, were largely uninterested in stepping up to the plate; they considered their near abroad safe enough. Most importantly, they were somewhat wary of delivering a combined ‘pocket Sixth Fleet’ of their own. Finally, they were preoccupied with managing German unification, enlargement of the European Union, and establishing a common market and currency, among other things. Accordingly, this paper sheds a light on some key German strategic documents for a time when the reunited country sought its new place in the security environment of the post-Cold War world. By taking a unique view from Germany, one of the U.S. Navy’s premier NATO allies, this analysis also considers the transformation of the Bundesmarine from an escort navy to an expeditionary navy.[3] It seeks to conceptually explain how Germany’s security policy addressed the maritime challenges of the new era. The German Navy was principally drawn south- and eastward geographically after 1991, usually in close cooperation with other allied and friendly navies (and mandated by NATO, the EU, or the UN).[4] It was increasingly asked to address maritime security challenges to which the U.S. Navy no longer, or only in a supporting role, responded. The German Navy went into the breach with what were essentially Cold War assets and a mindset fundamentally dominated by the inability to think strategically. This paper is split into two sections. The first section discusses the 1991-2001 timeframe and the second section covers the period from 2001-2014. 2001 marked the inauguration of President George W. Bush in January and the terrorist attacks on September 11 eight months later. Each section looks at the strategic developments of the U.S. Navy and the German Navy, their major naval operations, and some areas of cooperation between the two navies in Eurasia...
Topic:: Security, Cold War, History, Military Strategy, Navy, and Maritime
Political Geography:: Europe, Germany, North America, and United States of America

35597. The Bypass: Ahmad Chalabi, Dick Cheney and the Disbanding of the Iraqi Army

Author:: Michael Wackenreuter
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: On March 12, 2003, a week before the invasion of Iraq, a Principals Committee meeting of the National Security Council was held at the White House to formally decide the fate of the Iraqi Army.[1] The participants, having all received extensive briefings on the subject prior to meeting, voted unanimously and with little discussion that after disbanding the Republican Guard, the “regular soldiers” of the Iraqi Army would be called “back to duty.”[2] In spite of this decision, on May 23, 2003, L. Paul Bremer III—President Bush’s “special envoy” in Iraq—announced Coalition Provisional Authority Order No. 2, “Dissolution of Entities.” Among the relevant entities to be dissolved by the decree was the Iraqi Army.[3] In an interview with the journalist Robert Draper at the end of his presidency, President Bush commented on this apparent dissonance when he remarked, “The policy was to keep the army intact; didn’t happen.” When asked further of his reaction when he found out about the decree, Bush replied, “Yeah, I can’t remember, I’m sure I said, ‘This is the policy, what happened?’”[4] Having endured significant criticism over CPA Order No. 2, Mr. Bremer was quick to defend himself, providing letters to The New York Times to and from the president “in order to refute the suggestion in Mr. Bush’s comment that Mr. Bremer had acted to disband the army without the knowledge and concurrence of the White House.”[5] Such a puzzling exchange over such an important topic serves to illustrate a larger point. That is, despite its centrality to America’s involvement in Iraq, from the emergence of the insurgency onward to its current conflict with ISIS, it still remains unclear how and why the decision to disband the Iraqi Army was made. In this paper, I demonstrate that the impetus for CPA Order No. 2 came from the prominent Iraqi exile Ahmad Chalabi, and was carried out under the authority of Vice President Richard “Dick” Cheney by a small group of Chalabi’s supporters in the Office of the Vice President and the Pentagon. I do so first by establishing the lengths to which those in the vice president’s office, in concert with like-minded officials at the Defense Department, were willing to go in order to support Chalabi, who favored disbanding the army. Secondly, I identify the striking similarities between the events surrounding the order and other instances involving the vice president that involved a bypass of the normal interagency policy-making process...
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, History, Army, Baath Party, and Iraq War
Political Geography:: Iraq, Middle East, North America, and United States of America

35598. Development Challenges and Tools in Conflict Environments

Author:: Todd Diamond
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Working Paper
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: For at least a generation, conflict resolution has been predominantly the domain of international development practitioners seeking to use their skills and tools to avert war and reduce the suffering of civilian populations. More recently, the U.S. military added similar exercises to its planning efforts, primarily for the strategic purpose of reducing its own potential future deployments around the world. Working occasionally in parallel and at other times seemingly at cross-purposes, the military, donors and non-governmental organizations have begrudgingly come to accept that in any given crisis each can play a role. The nature and extent of each actor’s role depends on the circumstances and the severity of the situation. As the military concludes the longest war in U.S. history in Afghanistan, and as pressure mounts to intervene in additional conflicts in the Middle East, it is worth examining what role development can play in reducing that pressure, who should be responsible for providing that assistance, and what form it should take. In most cases, whether in a pre-conflict environment, an active conflict, or a post-conflict phase, development agencies and their partners are well placed to provide warnings and respond to civilian crises, though not without coordinating and collaborating in certain instances with their military counterparts...
Topic:: Conflict Resolution, Development, Humanitarian Aid, Military Affairs, Conflict, and NGOs
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Middle East, and United States of America

35599. The Role of Special Operations Forces in a Sustainable U.S. Counterterrorism Strategy: Moving Beyond Kinetic Targeting in the Future Operating Environment

Author:: Anthony Gilgis
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: For the past two decades, the United States military and the national security apparatus have focused their energy and capabilities on confronting Islamic terrorism as a kinetic target. Much of U.S. counterterrorism policy today consists of lethal raids and unmanned aerial vehicle strikes against targeted individuals. The U.S. government has come to rely heavily on the Special Operations Forces (USSOF) in particular for lethal raids, also termed “Direct Action” assaults, one of the ten “Core Activities” that Title X identifies for USSOF. Unfortunately, Direct Action has come to overshadow the broad array of missions that USSOF was originally intended to conduct. Unconventional Warfare, for example, is a core USSOF mission intended to prevent radical ideology from taking root in a society with a range of activities to build local good will towards friendly forces and animosity towards extremists. The U.S. can more effectively incorporate USSOF into a “whole-of-government” approach to counterterrorism by refocusing attention on non-kinetic, counter-ideology operations. To move beyond the recognized battlefields of the past decade, U.S. officials must embrace a multidimensional operating environment that requires simultaneous focus along multiple lines of effort. Future warfare will include complex, adaptive systems of ideology, economy, physical infrastructure, governance, and energy — which cannot be defeated through kinetic operations alone. The USSOF will need to transform its operations accordingly. During the last two decades of the twentieth century, a paradigm shift occurred in the realm of transnational terrorism and how nations responded to it. Shifting away from a focus on political goals, transnational terrorist groups began using religion as a motivating factor — both in their operations and in their recruitment. This new form of terrorism required a shift in response from the international community. It took the West almost a decade to recognize this shift and adjust its response to the emergent threat. Following 9/11, the United States fully engaged Special Operations Forces and paramilitary elements to actively counter this new religious ideology. SOF and paramilitary units were tasked to conduct raids against members of radical extremist groups. However, after almost 15 years of continuous warfare, the U.S. has arguably experienced limited success with its counterterrorism efforts as groups continue to conduct attacks and grow, gaining notoriety and establishing affiliated movements around the globe. Kinetic actions have created an entire generation of potential radicals who are victims of our counterterrorism “successes.” Populations sensitive to radicalization are also vulnerable to state-level terror in the form of unexpected and unpredictable military strikes. The battle against terrorism to date leaves the question, “As the United States looks to the future operating environment, can the Special Operations community find a more effective method to counter the ideology that creates the modern Islamic terrorist?” Since 2001, the West has increasingly focused on lethal targeting of individuals within religious-based extremist organizations. This method of conducting kinetic operations — either through direct action assaults by military or paramilitary units, or through the use of missile strikes from aerial platforms — has become the public face of the United States counter-terrorism effort. While the United States military has arguably raised man-hunting of individuals from an imprecise task to a methodical science, targeted lethal actions are nonetheless perceived as little more than indiscriminate state-level terror within the populations in which the operations are conducted. Looking to the future operating environment, the current policy of countering terrorist actions with targeted killing is unlikely to sway the underlying ideology in Americans’ favor. As such, it is necessary to develop a sustainable counterterrorism strategy that considers the human domain of local opinion as the future battlefield. The Special Operations Forces of the U.S. military will play a central role in any long-term strategy to counter violent extremist organizations; they are specifically designed to create a counter-ideology within the scope of unconventional warfare. Before looking at the role of U.S. Special Operation Forces within this emerging strategy, an understanding of the changing nature of warfare within a complex environment is necessary. Moving forward in the concept of developing a long-term counterterrorism strategy beyond the use of kinetic operations, we must understand that Islamic extremism is rooted in an ideology the West has displayed overt ignorance of and has been unprepared to counter. As stated by Patrick Sookhdeo, “Equally damaging has been the desire for a quick-fix and the reluctance to engage in a long-term struggle against the ideological struggle that nourishes and promotes Islamist terrorism.”
Topic:: Security, Military Strategy, Counter-terrorism, and Special Operations
Political Geography:: North America and United States of America

35600. Conflict in Cyberspace: How International Legal Norms Can Reduce Military Escalation in Cyberspace

Author:: Nikolas Ott
Publication Date:: 09-2015
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Fletcher Security Review
Institution:: The Fletcher School, Tufts University
Abstract:: This paper examines the current technical and legal considerations around the development of international legal norms and confidence-building measures in cyberspace. With an emphasis on state-based armed attacks and the use of force in cyberspace, it summarizes the current status of international efforts within the United Nations and several regional organizations. The paper concludes with several suggestions on how policymakers can reduce the gap between technological and legal considerations.
Topic:: International Law, Military Affairs, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: United Nations, North America, and United States of America

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