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  • Author: Carol Wise
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: The North-South Center, University of Miami
  • Abstract: This paper tackles the question of trade strategy and differential economic performance in Latin America, with a focus on the four countries -- Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico -- most important for the successful completion of a full Western Hemispheric integration scheme. The analysis distinguishes between a “standard” market strategy that assigns the task of economic adjustment to market forces and a “competitive” strategy that more actively employs a range of public policies to facilitate adjustment and correct for instances of market failure. The choices of strategy are explored against the backdrop of international pressures, government-business relations, and institutional reform within the state. Two main conclusions are drawn: first, the competitive strategy strongly correlates with more favorable macro-and microeconomic outcomes and, second, mediocre economic performance under a standard market strategy has undermined the spirit of collective action that will be necessary to forge ahead at the hemispheric level.
  • Topic: Economics, International Trade and Finance
  • Political Geography: Brazil, Argentina, Latin America, Mexico, Chile
  • Author: Dick Thornburgh
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: Clarke Center at Dickinson College
  • Abstract: On the evening of March 28, 1979 America experienced the first, and worst, nuclear power plant accident in its history. The crisis began when a valve opened, unnoticed, allowing coolant water to escape from the plant's new Unit 2 reactor. Following a series of technical and human failures, temperatures within the unit rose to more than 5,000 degrees, causing the fueling core to begin melting. During the next tension-packed days, scientists scrambled to prevent a meltdown while public officials, including Governor Dick Thornburgh and President Jimmy Carter, attempted to calm public fears. In spite of these efforts, thousands of residents fled to emergency shelters or left the state, driven by rumors of an imminent CHINA SYNDROME. In the end, only one layer of the containment structure was compromised and the accident never reached the proportions of the 1986 Chernobyl disaster. The accident nonetheless resulted in the release of some radiation, the quantity and effects of which are still debated.
  • Topic: Energy Policy, Industrial Policy
  • Political Geography: United States, Island
  • Publication Date: 12-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: At the outset of this study, the Task Force observed that there was no such thing as “just” tactical communications. Rather, it saw requirements for conducting military operations in two major theaters of war as well as for conducting a wide variety of other missions. It also saw emerging requirements for a telecommunication infrastructure to support rapid force projection, early entry, reachback/split-base, and high mobility operations. Furthermore, Joint Vision 2010 (JV2010) assumed information superiority to be necessary for dominant maneuver, precision engagement, full dimensional protection and focused logistics. All these factors have led our Military Services to express a need for a fully integrated, strategic/tactical, voice/data/information telecommunications infrastructure rather than merely “tactical” communications. This infrastructure must bring post-camp-station information services to deployed forces and, conversely, bring information from our deployed forces to the continental United States (CONUS) or to other locations geographically distant from areas of operations.
  • Topic: Defense Policy, Industrial Policy, Science and Technology
  • Political Geography: United States
  • Publication Date: 10-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: About 150 participants, including an international gathering of experts, examined whether and how technology may be leading to a paradigm shift in the nature and conduct of warfare, a shift that has been generally categorized as a "revolution in military affairs" (RMA).They concluded: The United States is the far—and—away leader in this drive. In fact, the United States is the only country intent on achieving a high technology RMA. No country is likely to match the United States in the broad—based technological sophistication of its military capabilitiesor even to try. US successes in developing RMA capabilities will drive potential adversaries toward asymmetric responses including weapons of mass destruction and information warfare. Some countries probably would be able to pose serious operational and strategic challenges to the United States by acquiring military technologies and capabilities that were in their eyes, "good enough." Also, countries can exploit "sidewise" technologies—old by US standards but still new to many other countries—to pose significant security threats and complicate US military operations. These technologies, if employed in a "novel" operational manner rather than high-end technologies, could drive development of the next RMA. Participants believe that—of the countries considered for discussion—China, Russia, India, and Australia have the greatest potential to achieve an RMA, should they decide to pursue the option.
  • Topic: Conflict Prevention, Security, International Political Economy, Sovereignty
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States, China, Australia
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: The worldwide ballistic missile proliferation problem has continued to evolve during the past year. The proliferation of technology and components continues. The capabilities of the missiles in the countries seeking to acquire them are growing, a fact underscored by North Korea's launch of the Taepo Dong-1 in August 1998. The number of missiles in these countries is also increasing. Medium- and short-range ballistic missile systems, particularly if armed with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) warheads, already pose a significant, threat to US interests, military forces, and allies overseas. We have seen increased trade and cooperation among countries that have been recipients of missile technologies from others. Finally, some countries continue to work toward longer-range systems, including ICBMs.
  • Topic: International Relations, Arms Control and Proliferation, Political Economy
  • Political Geography: United States, North Korea
  • Author: Robert Sutter
  • Publication Date: 09-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: The National Intelligence Council and the Federal Research Division of the Library of Congress hosted an all-day seminar at the Library of Congress on September 24, 1999 assessing the five-year outlook for China's domestic development and international security behavior. Entitled "China's Future--Implications for the United States," the seminar featured seven formal presentations by prominent academic specialists complemented by commentaries by nine China specialists from the US Intelligence Community. The Directors of the China offices in the State and Defense Departments offered concluding remarks on the implications of the conference findings for US policy toward China. Panelists and commentators focused specifically on political leaders and institutions, economic and social trends, security and foreign policies, and the overall prospects for China through 2005 (see seminar program). The main thrust of the deliberations reflected cautious optimism about China's future. The regime appears resilient enough to deal with most anticipated problems internally. China is wary of the United States and is gradually building military power. But unless Beijing is challenged by unexpected circumstances, China is unlikely to break with the United States or engage in disruptive military buildups or aggressive foreign behavior.
  • Topic: International Relations, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, China
  • Publication Date: 08-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: The views expressed are those of individuals and do not represent official US intelligence or policy positions. The NIC routinely sponsors such unclassified conferences with outside experts to gain knowledge and insight to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues.
  • Topic: Development, Economics, Politics
  • Political Geography: United States, Ukraine, Eastern Europe
  • Publication Date: 07-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This memorandum was prepared by the National Intelligence Officer for East Asia based on a meeting held on 7 July 1999. The National Intelligence Council (NIC) routinely sponsors meetings with outside experts to gain knowledge and insights to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in this meeting summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
  • Topic: International Relations, Security, Economics
  • Political Geography: United States, Asia
  • Publication Date: 06-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: The National Intelligence Council (NIC) routinely sponsors conferences with outside experts to gain knowledge and insights to sharpen the level of debate on critical issues. The views expressed in this conference summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
  • Topic: Conflict Resolution, Security
  • Political Geography: United States, China
  • Publication Date: 02-1999
  • Content Type: Working Paper
  • Institution: U.S. Government
  • Abstract: This conference was sponsored by the National Intelligence Council and the Bureau of Intelligence and Research of the US Department of State. John Battilega of the Science Applications International Corporation served as rapporteur. The views expressed in this conference summary are those of individuals and do not represent official US Government positions or views.
  • Topic: Security, Economics, Government
  • Political Geography: Russia, United States