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16351. Policy Briefs: National Minorities in Political Processes – Engagement for a Better Future

Author:
Fagan Abbasov, Orkhan Pirverdiev, Rima Marangozyan, Amaliya Babayan, Margarita Khasanshina, Lilit Karakhanyan, Zakir Aivazov, Katya Mosoyan, Varduy Kurginyan, and Heydar Aliyev
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The Policy Paper Series include policy briefs developed within the framework of the National Minorities in Political Processes – Engagement for a Better Future project. The papers were elaborated by the ethnic minority youth from Samtskhe-Javakheti and Kvemo Kartli for whom it was their first attempt to work on an analytical document. The papers address the challenges and solutions for the engagement of ethnic minorities in the political, economic or social life of Georgia. The project was implemented by the Rondeli Foundation with the support and active participation of the OSCE High Commissioner on National Minorities (OSCE HCNM). The project aims to increase the political and social inclusion of ethnic minorities and facilitate a healthy policy debate on the issues of national minorities among the political parties, thus overall contributing to good governance practices. Within the framework of the multi-component project, members of Tbilisi-based political party youth organizations, young people living in Samtskhe-Javakheti and Kvemo Kartli and active representatives of the local community attended various thematic seminars. The project also included thematic meetings of representatives of political parties and government agencies with the representatives of national minorities, the preparation of TV programs and organizing internships in political parties for young people representing ethnic minorities.
Topic:
Education, Gender Issues, Government, Minorities, Elections, Youth, Language, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

16352. “Syriazation” of the Libyan Crisis Threats and Challenges

Author:
Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
If up until now the confrontation between Russia and Turkey in the Middle East (Syria) was going with Moscow’s clear superiority, more recently the military situation has changed in Ankara’s favor in Libya where the center of the tensions moved in the spring of 2020. Multiple foreign states, which have long been confronting one another in the Middle East’s hot spots, got involved in the Libyan civil war with the aim of backing various groups of fighters. This caused the combat action to escalate and effectively internationalized the conflict. The conflict in Libya gradually became quite similar to the Syrian civil war (a “Syriazation” of the conflict took place) where foreign powers are fighting through their proxies (their supporters on the ground). This civil war creates numerous threats and challenges both within the region as well as outside of it.
Topic:
Civil War, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Russia, Turkey, Middle East, Libya, North Africa, and Syria

16353. COVID 19 in the North Caucasus Region

Author:
Aleksandre Kvakhadze
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
According to the latest data, the Russian Federation is one of the top countries in the world in terms of the number of confirmed cases of COVID 19 infections. That said, the media is paying much less attention to the pandemic taking place in the North Caucasus region. According to June 20, 2020’s data, the North Caucasus republics had the following statistics with regard to the virus: Dagestan – 7,103 infected, 344 deceased; Chechnya – 1,579 infected, 20 deceased; Ingushetia – 2,782 infected, 64 deceased; North Ossetia – 3,737 infected, 66 deceased; Kabardino-Balkaria – 4,361 infected, 43 deceased; Karachay-Cherkessia – 2,730 infected, 9 deceased and the Republic of Adygea – 1,511 infected, 12 deceased. It must be pointed out that the spread of the pandemic in the North Caucasus region started a little later as compared to the other regions of Russia which means that the peak of the dissemination remains ahead. Statistics show that the Republic of Dagestan is at the top with the number of infections as well as the number of deceased patients. Here we must also point out the high rate of per capita infections and deaths in Ingushetia. If we calculate the death rate per million people and count Dagestan and Ingushetia as sovereign states, they would both overtake affected regions such as Iran and Armenia, positioning themselves firmly among the top 30 affected countries. The relatively small number of deaths in Chechnya, as compared to the neighboring republics, must also be highlighted. This could be explained by the incorrect assessment/calculation of the death rate. As in other Russian regions, the North Caucasus republics have also introduced a quarantine and a number of restrictions. Quarantines also cover mosques and other religious places of mass gathering that hold an important place in the daily life of North Caucasians. Let us look at the situations in the individual republics.
Topic:
Politics, Crisis Management, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and North Caucasus

16354. National Security Strategy of Armenia

Author:
Giorgio Bilanishvili
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The National Security Council of the Republic of Armenia approved a new national security strategy on July 10, 2020. The work on this document has been going on for almost a year. By the order of the Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia, Nikol Pashinyan, on July 17, 2019, an interagency commission was set up under the leadership of the Secretary of the National Security Council. It was instructed to develop a working version of the new national security strategy within one year. The previous National Security Strategy was approved by the National Security Council of Armenia a while ago on January 26, 2007. Thirteen years is quite a long period and the renewal of the national security strategy, in principal, should have happened earlier. Such a long pause indirectly indicates that the process of national security policy planning in the Republic of Armenia is not going appropriately. The purpose of this publication is to juxtapose and highlight the main differences between Armenia's national security strategies for 2007 and 2020 and also assess Armenia's external security environment based on the 2020 strategy.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, and National Security
Political Geography:
Eurasia and Armenia

16355. Turkey-Greece Confrontation and Georgia: Threats and Challenges

Author:
Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
Relations between Turkey and Greece have never been easy but since the summer of 2020, tensions between them rose sharply. If during June and July of 2020 the parties were arguing over the conversion of the Hagia Sophia Museum into a mosque, in August-September the center of controversy shifted to the Eastern Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea. Many unresolved issues have accumulated over the decades in this "space" - the problem of Cyprus, the problem of the separation of maritime economic zones (hence, the natural resources located there), the issue of 12 islands and airspace, the matter of ownership of uninhabited small islands and more. In addition, recently, one can observe increasingly aggressive rhetoric in both countries which creates the danger of small incidents escalating into a major military confrontation that, in turn, createsseriousthreats and challenges to regionalsecurity (including Georgia).
Topic:
Conflict Prevention, International Relations, Security, Economics, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Turkey, Caucasus, Greece, and Georgia

16356. Security Review: Nagorno-Karabakh War Consequences

Author:
David Batashvili, Giorgio Bilanishvili, and Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:
The Security Review section of the Rondeli Foundation regularly covers topics analyzing the threats facing Georgia, the changes in Georgia's external security environment and the challenges to Georgia's national security policy. Recently, the developments around Karabakh have seriously changed the previous status quo in our region, precipitating new and very significant circumstances, and have brought about a new reality to the countries of the South Caucasus as well as various important players with an interest in the region. Accordingly, the Rondeli Foundation pays special attention to a complex analysis of the new reality created in the context of Georgia's national security environment. To this end, a discussion series, entitled "New Reality in the South Caucasus," was organized in a webinar format providing the interested public with the opportunity to hear the assessments of experts from Azerbaijan, Armenia, Turkey, Iran and Russia (the discussion series is available on the Rondeli Foundation's YouTube channel and Facebook page. The current issue of the Rondeli Foundation Security Review is also entirely dedicated to the new reality created in our region. It brings together the publications of the Foundation’s researchers that look at and evaluate the current situation from different angles.
Topic:
Security, National Security, War, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, Armenia, Azerbaijan, South Caucasus, and Nagorno-Karabakh

16357. Who Wants to Be a Great Power?

Author:
Lawrence D. Freedman
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Strategic competition is back in vogue. After years of worrying about ethnic conflict and humanitarian intervention, civil wars and counterinsurgency, there is a renewed focus among policymakers, think-tankers, and academics on traditional strategic concerns and in particular great power confrontation. For many students of international relations this appears as no more than recognizing a feature of the system that never went away.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Hegemony, Strategic Competition, and Power
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16358. ROC(K) Solid Preparedness: Resistance Operations Concept in the Shadow of Russia

Author:
Otto Fiala and Ulrica Pettersson
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Resistance is a form of warfare. It can be planned. The Resistance Operations Concept is simply a resistance primer. It contains guidance and advice toward establishing a nationally authorized resistance capability. It advises the establishment of a pre-crisis organization for nations under greater threat, for the purpose of having a unified resistance effort against an occupier, and renders specific organizational guidance.
Topic:
War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Resistance
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16359. China’s Private Military and Security Companies: “Chinese Muscle” and the Reasons for U.S. Engagement

Author:
Christopher Spearin
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
On 7 February 2019, General Thomas Waldhauser, then-Commander of United States Africa Command, stated the following during a hearing of the U.S. Senate Armed Services Committee: “The Chinese bring the money and the Russians bring the muscle.” “Chinese money” is evident in the fact that since 2009, China has been Africa’s largest trading partner.
Topic:
Privatization, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16360. COVID-19: The Pandemic and its Impact on Security Policy

Author:
Matthias Rogg
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
The world is caught up in an existential struggle. The opponent is intangible; it spares neither state nor social group and does not stop at any border. For many of us, this struggle feels like war. Indeed, with the growing use of war-like language in the fight against COVID-19, also called coronavirus, a rapidly rising number of victims, and last but not least the economic consequences which are becoming increasingly clear, we seem to be experiencing a war-like situation.
Topic:
Security, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

16361. No Such Thing as a Perfect Partner: The Challenges of “By, With, and Through”

Author:
Emily Knowles
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Taking a peacebuilding approach to working with local militaries and armed groups means using assistance to fragmented security sectors to increase cooperation between various formal and informal elites in a weak state. This approach places less emphasis on developing conventional military power and more emphasis on facilitating and improving relations between the different factions within the security sector and between the security sector and the civilian population. If international providers help local partners perform better at military tasks without ensuring that the forces have local legitimacy and strong accountability, progress is likely to be fleeting and could actually exacerbate civilian harm and the underlying drivers of violent conflict.
Topic:
Security, Defense Policy, Military Strategy, Peacekeeping, Conflict, and Local
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16362. Elite Incentives and Power Dynamics in Fragile States

Author:
Sarah Rose
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
By 2030, it is estimated that half of the world’s poor will be concentrated in fragile states. These are countries where the social contract between the government and its people is weak or absent—a breakdown which both creates a heightened risk of shocks from conflict, violence, pandemic illness, and/or natural disasters, and limits the country’s resilience to them. The increasing interlinkage between global development and state fragility, the potential cross-border nature of some of the risks, and the deeply mixed track record of successful international intervention to date, have prompted many donor organizations—including the United States—to reorient their policies and approaches to better support fragile states’ pathways to peace, stability, and resilience.
Topic:
Security, Poverty, Inequality, Fragile States, Borders, and Peace
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16363. Foreign Aid in an Era of Great Power Competition

Author:
Andrew S. Natsios
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Over the past decade the international political system has evolved into a state of great power rivalry in which the United States is challenged for international leadership by a rising China and a rapidly re-arming, revanchist Russia. A new militant nationalism is spreading across the globe; democracy appears to be in retreat as aggrieved populations turn to populist authoritarianism as a remedy. This rising political and strategic competition has now crossed over into the international development space.
Topic:
Nationalism, Foreign Aid, Hegemony, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16364. IPCRI In Between Conference: Divided Societies, Shared Spaces - Mr. Tareq Nassar

Author:
Tareq Nassar
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:
Since 2017, the Davis Institute for International Relations from the Hebrew University and the Center for Regional Initiatives (IPCRI) have been engaged in a project aimed at building shared visions for Jerusalem. In this project, local residents from diverse communities from across Jerusalem engaged in mapping local needs and designing their visions for the future of the city. As complementary to this work, IPCRI organized in partnership with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the Irish Aid delegations of experts and civil society leaders from Jerusalem to other contested cities such as Belfast, Nicosia and Sarajevo. These delegations focused on the reality of cities in conflict and highlighted the lessons that can be learned from other conflicts. This conference presented the outcomes of both projects. In the first part of the conference, scholars presented policy recommendations designed by local residents and will receive input from experts from other contested cities. Following this part, we will host panels and workshops focusing on the practice of bringing change to contested spaces. From urban planning through shared education and equal representation, we aim to present a comprehensive vision towards the future of those cities in conflict. This video presents the remarks delivered by Mr. Tareq Nassar on placemaking projects in East Jerusalem.
Topic:
Education, Conflict, Cities, and Urban Planning
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and East Jerusalem

16365. IPCRI In Between Conference: Representation & Authority in a Contested City - Dr. Lior Lehrs

Author:
Lior Lehrs
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:
Since 2017, the Davis Institute for International Relations from the Hebrew University and the Center for Regional Initiatives (IPCRI) have been engaged in a project aimed at building shared visions for Jerusalem. In this project, local residents from diverse communities from across Jerusalem engaged in mapping local needs and designing their visions for the future of the city. As complementary to this work, IPCRI organized in partnership with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the Irish Aid delegations of experts and civil society leaders from Jerusalem to other contested cities such as Belfast, Nicosia and Sarajevo. These delegations focused on the reality of cities in conflict and highlighted the lessons that can be learned from other conflicts. This conference presented the outcomes of both projects. In the first part of the conference, scholars presented policy recommendations designed by local residents and will receive input from experts from other contested cities. Following this part, we will host panels and workshops focusing on the practice of bringing change to contested spaces. From urban planning through shared education and equal representation, we aim to present a comprehensive vision towards the future of those cities in conflict. This video presents remarks delivered by Dr. Lior Lehrs on the policy recommendations considering local representation in Jerusalem.
Topic:
Conflict, Representation, Public Policy, Cities, and Urban Planning
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16366. IPCRI In Between Conference: Representation & Authority in a Contested City - Prof. Oren Barak

Author:
Oren Barak
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:
Since 2017, the Davis Institute for International Relations from the Hebrew University and the Center for Regional Initiatives (IPCRI) have been engaged in a project aimed at building shared visions for Jerusalem. In this project, local residents from diverse communities from across Jerusalem engaged in mapping local needs and designing their visions for the future of the city. As complementary to this work, IPCRI organized in partnership with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the Irish Aid delegations of experts and civil society leaders from Jerusalem to other contested cities such as Belfast, Nicosia and Sarajevo. These delegations focused on the reality of cities in conflict and highlighted the lessons that can be learned from other conflicts. This conference presented the outcomes of both projects. In the first part of the conference, scholars presented policy recommendations designed by local residents and will receive input from experts from other contested cities. Following this part, we will host panels and workshops focusing on the practice of bringing change to contested spaces. From urban planning through shared education and equal representation, we aim to present a comprehensive vision towards the future of those cities in conflict. This video presents the remarks delivered by Prof. Oren Barak on local representation in multi ethnic societies.
Topic:
Demographics, Ethnicity, Conflict, Representation, Cities, Authority, and Society
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16367. IPCRI In Between Conference: Representation & Authority in a Contested City - Dr. Adis Maksic

Author:
Adis Maksic
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:
Since 2017, the Davis Institute for International Relations from the Hebrew University and the Center for Regional Initiatives (IPCRI) have been engaged in a project aimed at building shared visions for Jerusalem. In this project, local residents from diverse communities from across Jerusalem engaged in mapping local needs and designing their visions for the future of the city. As complementary to this work, IPCRI organized in partnership with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the Irish Aid delegations of experts and civil society leaders from Jerusalem to other contested cities such as Belfast, Nicosia and Sarajevo. These delegations focused on the reality of cities in conflict and highlighted the lessons that can be learned from other conflicts. This conference presented the outcomes of both projects. In the first part of the conference, scholars presented policy recommendations designed by local residents and will receive input from experts from other contested cities. Following this part, we will host panels and workshops focusing on the practice of bringing change to contested spaces. From urban planning through shared education and equal representation, we aim to present a comprehensive vision towards the future of those cities in conflict. This video presents the remarks delivered by Dr. Adis Maksic on the lessons learned from other divided cities in Bosnia and Serbia.
Topic:
Civil Society, Conflict, Representation, Cities, and Authority
Political Geography:
Bosnia, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Serbia

16368. IPCRI In Between Conference: What Can We Learn from the Status Quo? - Rev. Dr. Gary Mason

Author:
Gary Mason
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:
Since 2017, the Davis Institute for International Relations from the Hebrew University and the Center for Regional Initiatives (IPCRI) have been engaged in a project aimed at building shared visions for Jerusalem. In this project, local residents from diverse communities from across Jerusalem engaged in mapping local needs and designing their visions for the future of the city. As complementary to this work, IPCRI organized in partnership with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the Irish Aid delegations of experts and civil society leaders from Jerusalem to other contested cities such as Belfast, Nicosia and Sarajevo. These delegations focused on the reality of cities in conflict and highlighted the lessons that can be learned from other conflicts. This conference presented the outcomes of both projects. In the first part of the conference, scholars presented policy recommendations designed by local residents and will receive input from experts from other contested cities. Following this part, we will host panels and workshops focusing on the practice of bringing change to contested spaces. From urban planning through shared education and equal representation, we aim to present a comprehensive vision towards the future of those cities in conflict. This video presents the remarks delivered by Rev. Dr. Gary Mason on the lessons that can be learned from the status quo in Jerusalem and Belfast.
Topic:
History, Conflict, Cities, and Society
Political Geography:
Europe, Middle East, Israel, Palestine, and Northern Ireland

16369. IPCRI In Between Conference: Divided Societies, Shared Spaces - Rev. Dr. Gary Mason

Author:
Gary Mason
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:
Since 2017, the Davis Institute for International Relations from the Hebrew University and the Center for Regional Initiatives (IPCRI) have been engaged in a project aimed at building shared visions for Jerusalem. In this project, local residents from diverse communities from across Jerusalem engaged in mapping local needs and designing their visions for the future of the city. As complementary to this work, IPCRI organized in partnership with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the Irish Aid delegations of experts and civil society leaders from Jerusalem to other contested cities such as Belfast, Nicosia and Sarajevo. These delegations focused on the reality of cities in conflict and highlighted the lessons that can be learned from other conflicts. This conference presented the outcomes of both projects. In the first part of the conference, scholars presented policy recommendations designed by local residents and will receive input from experts from other contested cities. Following this part, we will host panels and workshops focusing on the practice of bringing change to contested spaces. From urban planning through shared education and equal representation, we aim to present a comprehensive vision towards the future of those cities in conflict. This video presents the remarks delivered by Rev. Dr. Gary Mason on the role of shared spaces in divided cities with a focus on Jerusalem and Belfast.
Topic:
Conflict, Cities, Society, and Urban Planning
Political Geography:
Israel, Palestine, Jerusalem, Northern Ireland, and Belfast

16370. IPCRI In Between Conference: Safety & Protection in Contested Spaces - Ms. Karolina v. Ede Tzenvirt

Author:
Karolina v. Ede Tzenvirt, Nimati Tahhan, Badi Hasisi, and Sammy Douglas
Publication Date:
02-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:
Since 2017, the Davis Institute for International Relations from the Hebrew University and the Center for Regional Initiatives (IPCRI) have been engaged in a project aimed at building shared visions for Jerusalem. In this project, local residents from diverse communities from across Jerusalem engaged in mapping local needs and designing their visions for the future of the city. As complementary to this work, IPCRI organized in partnership with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the Irish Aid delegations of experts and civil society leaders from Jerusalem to other contested cities such as Belfast, Nicosia and Sarajevo. These delegations focused on the reality of cities in conflict and highlighted the lessons that can be learned from other conflicts. This conference presented the outcomes of both projects. In the first part of the conference, scholars presented policy recommendations designed by local residents and will receive input from experts from other contested cities. Following this part, we will host panels and workshops focusing on the practice of bringing change to contested spaces. From urban planning through shared education and equal representation, we aim to present a comprehensive vision towards the future of those cities in conflict. This presentation was a part of a panel focusing on "Building a Safe Space: Safety & Protection in Contested Spaces" with the participation of Ms. Karolina v. Ede Tzenvirt Building Visions for the Future of Jerusalem Ms. Nimati Tahhan The Glocal Program, The Hebrew University Prof. Badi Hasisi The Faculty of Law, The Hebrew University Mr. Sammy Douglas Former Member of the Legislative Assembly, N. Ireland
Topic:
Law, Conflict, Cities, and Society
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16371. IPCRI In Between Conference - Educating the Next Generations - Dr. Samira Alayan

Author:
Samira Alayan, Sarah Perle Benazera, Ahmad Asmar, and Tony Gallagher
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:
Since 2017, the Davis Institute for International Relations from the Hebrew University and the Center for Regional Initiatives (IPCRI) have been engaged in a project aimed at building shared visions for Jerusalem. In this project, local residents from diverse communities from across Jerusalem engaged in mapping local needs and designing their visions for the future of the city. As complementary to this work, IPCRI organized in partnership with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the Irish Aid delegations of experts and civil society leaders from Jerusalem to other contested cities such as Belfast, Nicosia and Sarajevo. These delegations focused on the reality of cities in conflict and highlighted the lessons that can be learned from other conflicts. This conference presented the outcomes of both projects. In the first part of the conference, scholars presented policy recommendations designed by local residents and will receive input from experts from other contested cities. Following this part, we will host panels and workshops focusing on the practice of bringing change to contested spaces. From urban planning through shared education and equal representation, we aim to present a comprehensive vision towards the future of those cities in conflict. This video was taken from a panel titled: "Thinking Ahead, Educating the Next Generations" with the participation of: Ms. Sarah Perle Benazera a Dialogue Facilitator Mr. Ahmad Asmar The Dept. of ME Studies, The Hebrew University Dr. Samira Alayan The Dept. of Education, The Hebrew University Prof. Tony Gallagher The School of Education, Queen’s University
Topic:
Education, Youth, Conflict, and Cities
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16372. IPCRI In Between Conference - Infrastructure & Planning in a Divided Space - Dr. Nufar Avni

Author:
Nufar Avni
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:
Since 2017, the Davis Institute for International Relations from the Hebrew University and the Center for Regional Initiatives (IPCRI) have been engaged in a project aimed at building shared visions for Jerusalem. In this project, local residents from diverse communities from across Jerusalem engaged in mapping local needs and designing their visions for the future of the city. As complementary to this work, IPCRI organized in partnership with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the Irish Aid delegations of experts and civil society leaders from Jerusalem to other contested cities such as Belfast, Nicosia and Sarajevo. These delegations focused on the reality of cities in conflict and highlighted the lessons that can be learned from other conflicts. This conference presented the outcomes of both projects. In the first part of the conference, scholars presented policy recommendations designed by local residents and will receive input from experts from other contested cities. Following this part, we will host panels and workshops focusing on the practice of bringing change to contested spaces. From urban planning through shared education and equal representation, we aim to present a comprehensive vision towards the future of those cities in conflict. This video was taken from a panel titled: "Infrastructure & Planning in a Divided Space" with the participation of: Mr. Tareq Nassar a Local Urban Planner, Jerusalem Dr. Nufar Avni The Dept. of Geography, The Hebrew University Prof. Gillad Rosen The Dept. of Geography, The Hebrew University Dr. Gizem Caner The Dept. of Geography, Cyprus Int. University
Topic:
Infrastructure, Conflict, Cities, and Urban Planning
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16373. IPCRI In Between Conference - Infrastructure & Planning in a Divided Space - Dr. Gizem Caner

Author:
Gizem Caner, Tareq Nassar, Nufar Avni, and Gillad Rosen
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:
Since 2017, the Davis Institute for International Relations from the Hebrew University and the Center for Regional Initiatives (IPCRI) have been engaged in a project aimed at building shared visions for Jerusalem. In this project, local residents from diverse communities from across Jerusalem engaged in mapping local needs and designing their visions for the future of the city. As complementary to this work, IPCRI organized in partnership with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the Irish Aid delegations of experts and civil society leaders from Jerusalem to other contested cities such as Belfast, Nicosia and Sarajevo. These delegations focused on the reality of cities in conflict and highlighted the lessons that can be learned from other conflicts. This conference presented the outcomes of both projects. In the first part of the conference, scholars presented policy recommendations designed by local residents and will receive input from experts from other contested cities. Following this part, we will host panels and workshops focusing on the practice of bringing change to contested spaces. From urban planning through shared education and equal representation, we aim to present a comprehensive vision towards the future of those cities in conflict. This video was taken from a panel titled: "Infrastructure & Planning in a Divided Space" with the participation of: Mr. Tareq Nassar a Local Urban Planner, Jerusalem Dr. Nufar Avni The Dept. of Geography, The Hebrew University Prof. Gillad Rosen The Dept. of Geography, The Hebrew University Dr. Gizem Caner The Dept. of Geography, Cyprus Int. University
Topic:
Infrastructure, Conflict, Cities, and Urban Planning
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16374. IPCRI In Between Conference - Infrastructure & Planning in a Divided Space - Dr. Gilad Rosen

Author:
Gilad Rosen
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:
Since 2017, the Davis Institute for International Relations from the Hebrew University and the Center for Regional Initiatives (IPCRI) have been engaged in a project aimed at building shared visions for Jerusalem. In this project, local residents from diverse communities from across Jerusalem engaged in mapping local needs and designing their visions for the future of the city. As complementary to this work, IPCRI organized in partnership with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the Irish Aid delegations of experts and civil society leaders from Jerusalem to other contested cities such as Belfast, Nicosia and Sarajevo. These delegations focused on the reality of cities in conflict and highlighted the lessons that can be learned from other conflicts. This conference presented the outcomes of both projects. In the first part of the conference, scholars presented policy recommendations designed by local residents and will receive input from experts from other contested cities. Following this part, we will host panels and workshops focusing on the practice of bringing change to contested spaces. From urban planning through shared education and equal representation, we aim to present a comprehensive vision towards the future of those cities in conflict. This video was taken from a panel titled: "Infrastructure & Planning in a Divided Space" with the participation of: Mr. Tareq Nassar a Local Urban Planner, Jerusalem Dr. Nufar Avni The Dept. of Geography, The Hebrew University Prof. Gillad Rosen The Dept. of Geography, The Hebrew University Dr. Gizem Caner The Dept. of Geography, Cyprus Int. University
Topic:
Infrastructure, Conflict, Cities, and Urban Planning
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16375. IPCRI In Between Conference - Thinking Ahead, Educating the Next Generations - Ahmad Asmar

Author:
Ahmad Asmar
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Israel/Palestine Creative Regional Initiatives (IPCRI)
Abstract:
Since 2017, the Davis Institute for International Relations from the Hebrew University and the Center for Regional Initiatives (IPCRI) have been engaged in a project aimed at building shared visions for Jerusalem. In this project, local residents from diverse communities from across Jerusalem engaged in mapping local needs and designing their visions for the future of the city. As complementary to this work, IPCRI organized in partnership with Konrad Adenauer Stiftung and the Irish Aid delegations of experts and civil society leaders from Jerusalem to other contested cities such as Belfast, Nicosia and Sarajevo. These delegations focused on the reality of cities in conflict and highlighted the lessons that can be learned from other conflicts. This conference presented the outcomes of both projects. In the first part of the conference, scholars presented policy recommendations designed by local residents and will receive input from experts from other contested cities. Following this part, we will host panels and workshops focusing on the practice of bringing change to contested spaces. From urban planning through shared education and equal representation, we aim to present a comprehensive vision towards the future of those cities in conflict. This video was taken from a panel titled: "Thinking Ahead, Educating the Next Generations" with the participation of: Ms. Sarah Perle Benazera a Dialogue Facilitator Mr. Ahmad Asmar The Dept. of ME Studies, The Hebrew University Dr. Samira Alayan The Dept. of Education, The Hebrew University Prof. Tony Gallagher The School of Education, Queen’s University
Topic:
Education, Conflict, and Cities
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, and Palestine

16376. China and the EU in the Western Balkans: A zero-sum game?

Author:
Wouter Zweers and Frans-Paul van der Putten
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This Clingendael Report explores whether and how China’s approach to the six non-European Union (EU) countries of the Western Balkans (the WB6) relates to EU interests. It focuses in particular on the question of whether China’s influence affects the behaviour of the WB6 governments in ways that run counter to the EU’s objectives in the region. China engages with the Western Balkans primarily as a financier of infrastructure and a source of direct investment. This is in line with China’s main strategic objective for the Western Balkans – that is, to develop the Land–Sea Express Corridor, a component of its Belt and Road Initiative, aimed at improving China–EU connectivity. This report proposes a number of actions based on recognising the developmental needs of countries in the Western Balkans, and accepting that China’s economic involvement is inevitable and potentially beneficial for such developmental needs. In particular, the EU should maximise accession conditionality as a tool to influence the conditions under which China is involved in the region.
Topic:
Infrastructure, European Union, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Economic Development, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China, Europe, and Balkans

16377. When the dust settles: Economic and governance repercussions of migration policies in Niger’s north

Author:
Johannes Claes and Anna Schmauder
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Mobility has played an important role in Niger’s north throughout its history. Local populations, in response to droughts or shifting border regimes in Libya and Algeria, have traditionally been able to make changes to their livelihood strategies and have shown a remarkable capacity for adaptation, often through migration as a way of diversifying livelihoods. However, since the early 2000s, and particularly since 2016, this system has come under pressure as increasing collaboration with Western countries, whose agendas are aimed at curbing irregular migration from Africa to Europe, has reduced the options available for income generation. This paper lays out the emerging longer-term dynamics in the region in response to the criminalisation of smuggling in Niger in 2015 and the measures subsequently taken to curb northward migratory movements. It has discerned such effects on the local economy and on the perception of governance providers, who are often responsible for detecting and managing discontent.
Topic:
Economics, Migration, Governance, and Smuggling
Political Geography:
Africa, Libya, Algeria, and Niger

16378. Coming out and breaking out: The US, Iran and Europe go nuclear

Author:
Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
On the eve of the US elections, the nuclear deal (JCPOA) stands on the edge of the precipice. The US strategy of ‘maximum pressure’ has not (yet) achieved its implicit objective of 'regime change' but tanked Iran’s economy, caused its government to dig in and increased regional instability. The geopolitical consequences of US sanctions, EU prevarication and Iran’s deep presence throughout the Middle East have been equally profound. At the global level, they include nudging Iran towards China/Russia, the US alienating its European ‘partners’ and encouraging them to develop greater strategic autonomy. At the regional level, US sanctions risk creating an alternative economic regional order, ensuring Yemen remains a protracted war and making a regional security initiative more necessary, but less likely. It is not yet too late to turn the tide. The focus should now be on reducing regional tensions and especially the stress that sanctions have put on Iran’s population and government. Radical action looks more inviting when one stands against the wall, but the Middle East does not need more conflict than it already has. To do so, the EU should first support Iran with a large-scale Covid-19 humanitarian economy recovery package. As such measures are already sanctions-exempt, they will create few new tensions. An economic initiative should follow that grants preferential access to the EU’s internal market for industrial and agricultural goods from the entire Middle East (for Iran via an upgraded INSTEX). Such interventions will not resolve existing security dilemmas but can show there is an alternative to confrontation.
Topic:
Treaties and Agreements, Sanctions, Nuclear Power, Elections, and European Union
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Iran, Yemen, and United States of America

16379. Europe’s Digital Decade? Navigating the global battle for digital supremacy

Author:
Brigitte Dekker and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
On 16 September 2020, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen set a clear goal for the European Union (EU) and its member states: We must make this ‘Europe’s Digital Decade’ Aiming to contribute to improved European policy-making, this report discusses (best) practices of Asian countries and the United States in the field of digital connectivity. It covers a wide range of topics related to digital regulation, the e-economy, and telecommunications infrastructure. Findings show that the EU and its member states are slowly but steadily moving from being mainly a regulatory power to also claiming their space as a player in the digitalized economy. Cloud computing initiative GAIA-X is a key example, constituting a proactive alternative to American and Chinese Cloud providers. Such initiatives, including also the more recent Next Generation Internet (NGI), are a necessity to push European digital norms and standards, but also assist the global competitiveness of European companies and business models.
Topic:
Science and Technology, European Union, Digitalization, and Telecommunications
Political Geography:
Europe

16380. Navigating the Regional Chessboard: Europe’s Options to Address Conflicts in the Mena Region

Author:
Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
As 2020 draws to a close, the conflicts in Syria, Libya and Yemen have been ongoing for nearly a decade. Conflict and political crisis in Iraq have alternated non-stop since 2003. The Middle East also witnesses growing tensions between the Gulf States, Iran and the US, as well as more engagement of Turkish and Russian forces. In contrast, the European Union has often been passive and divided. This has resulted in missed windows of opportunity for conflict prevention, a loss of credibility and growing externalities that reach Europe unfiltered. This wide-ranging volume by the Friedrich Ebert Stiftung offers detailed analysis of conflicts in Yemen, Syria, Iraq and Libya in search of options for Europe to help bring them to a close. Powerfully, it brings a rich set of regional, and some international, perspectives together to contribute to smart thinking on what Europe can do. What is in Yemen for Iran: Research associate Maysam Behravesh gives a realistic assessment of Tehran's strategic calculus in the Arabian peninsula. A time for principled pragmatism: In the volume’s analysis of the Syrian conflict, Clingendael’s senior research fellow Erwin van Veen explores possibilities for EU-Russian collaboration, together with Alexey Khlebnikov, on humanitarian aid diplomacy and fighting extremism. Although the EU and Russia are mostly at loggerheads in Syria, the authors seek to deconstruct the current political stalemate in a bid to identify the least controversial issues on which joint initiatives might be possible. In turn, this might lay a foundation for further dialogue. The alternative is ongoing confrontation.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Iran, Middle East, Yemen, North Africa, and Syria

16381. Iraq and Lebanon’s tortuous paths to reform

Author:
Nancy Ezzeddine
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The recent protests in Iraq and Lebanon are driven by the effects of inadequate governance, which itself is a result of years of corruption, nepotism, and the appropriation of public authority and resources for sectarian purposes and self-enrichment. The governance model of both countries – sectarian quasi-democracy – is increasingly proving to be a long-term dead end. Both countries stare into the abyss of public bankruptcy, crumbling social services, growing poverty levels, and the lingering threat of renewed violence. Yet, the Lebanese and Iraqi political elites are stubbornly refusing to make more than token concessions to the protesters’ demands. The reform protesters seek are ambitious due to the many mechanisms that have entrenched elite capture of public authority and budgets in both countries over the past decades. These include, in particular: (1) the deep institutionalization of consociationalism that prevents more radical reform; (2) the pervasiveness of public/private arrangements that political elites use to dominate socioeconomic interactions to their benefits; and (3) the steady courting by many domestic political parties of foreign alliances that sustain the sectarian status quo. Notwithstanding the roadblocks to reform thrown up by these three mechanisms, this paper argues that today’s mix of political and economic crises offers opportunities bring about change. This is because these crises starkly expose the deep failure and unsustainability of current governance and development mechanisms in Lebanon and Iraq. Faced with resilient, stick systems that feature many veto players, reform is inevitably bound to be a gradual, long-term process that slowly and painfully strengthens and changes political structures. Key ingredients of such a path are the capacity of civil society structures to influence and guide decision making, the extent to which the international community is ready to challenge the status quo via conditions and incentives for genuine reform, and the ability to protestors to keep pressing for and prioritizing domestic agendas despite geopolitical tensions.
Topic:
Civil Society, Corruption, Reform, Alliance, Political Crisis, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, and Lebanon

16382. Dealing with China on high-tech issues Views from the US, EU and like-minded countries in a changing geopolitical landscape

Author:
Brigitte Dekker and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
As President-Elect Joe Biden enters the White House, what are the opportunities for EU–US cooperation in the trade, high-tech and digital domains? Together with like-minded partners, the transatlantic partners aim for deepened and renewed engagement in the bilateral and multilateral context. They need to deliver on broadening multilateralism to new areas and, in certain cases, new approaches. This Clingendael Report aims to contribute to a reorientation of the EU in the broad field of economic security, in the transatlantic context and with Japan, India and Australia. The policies of European governments and businesses in the trade, high-tech and digital domains are undergoing profound change. Stakeholders are starting to act on the awareness that some geopolitical challenges, in particular concerning China, cannot be solved within the liberal–democratic mindset alone. Still, however, they do want to uphold – and update – the basic principles of the rules-based system. This report adopts an ‘outside-in approach’ to discuss the many economic security challenges. It presents views and forward-looking suggestions by key experts from six countries: the United States, Germany, France, Japan, India and Australia.
Topic:
European Union, Geopolitics, Multilateralism, and Economic Security
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

16383. The destructive effects of state capture in the Western Balkans: EU enlargement undermined

Author:
Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This Clingendael policy brief analyses the destructive effects of state capture in the Western Balkans and how it undermines the EU enlargement process. Using the case of Serbia, this policy brief shows how state capture mechanisms selectively strengthen the ruling party and its leadership while it weakens the opposition and independent institutions. State capture weakens the effectiveness of EU conditionality and reduces the credibility of the EU enlargement process. Tackling state capture, through strengthening accountability structures and increasing transparency, is identified as a key priority for the EU enlargement process to be successful in the future.
Topic:
European Union, Accountability, and Institutions
Political Geography:
Europe, Serbia, and Balkans

16384. Four scenarios for electoral violence: Policy Brief the 2020 Ivorian Presidential and Parliamentary elections

Author:
Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
Presidential and parliamentary elections in Cote d’Ivoire are scheduled for October 31, 2020. The past months have seen serious acts of violence during the campaign. As more violence is expected, the central question is where this violence is taking and will be taking place and which conditions are encouraging it. This policy brief explores the election violence literature and derives four scenarios to explaining and show which of Cote d'Ivoire's 31 regions will be affected for what reasons by electoral violence. Exploration of violence data highlights that presently, electoral violence is highest in competitive areas. This implies that the incumbent and opposition use violence in ‘swing’ areas and areas where they need to poach substantial number of votes from the opponent.
Topic:
Elections, Domestic Politics, Violence, and Presidential Elections
Political Geography:
Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

16385. The Russia policy conundrum: Who blinks first?

Author:
Hugo Klijn
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
On 28 September the Netherlands’ Russia policy was debated in Parliament. This policy (updated most recently in the government’s ‘Russia letter’ of December 2019) boils down to a twin-track approach of, on the one hand, exerting pressure through EU sanctions and NATO deterrence and, on the other hand, identifying common ground dossiers and engaging in people-to-people contacts. To date, this long-standing policy has not led to satisfactory outcomes. The debate took place against the backdrop of a Clingendael opinion poll indicating that the Dutch public has different threat perceptions of Russia. Anyway, the debate was rather uneventful and lawmakers focused mostly on topical issues such as the ongoing MH17 trial, Belarus, developments around Nagorno-Karabakh and the poisoning of Alexey Navalny. It may be a source of comfort that the Netherlands is not the only country struggling with its Russia policy. The list of accusations and grievances against Russia is growing, but its leadership flatly denies all wrongdoing and does not seem much impressed by Western responses which have not resulted in a change of behaviour. Under a veneer of unity, European countries are divided on Russia and the debate often hovers between two, typically Russian, eternal questions: kto vinovat (who’s to blame) and chto delat’ (what to do).
Topic:
Foreign Policy, NATO, Sanctions, European Union, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, and Netherlands

16386. Europeanising health policy in times of coronationalism

Author:
Louise Van Schaik and Remco van de Pas
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The COVID-19 crisis has prompted the European Union (EU) to rethink its health policy, or rather those of its policies that influence the health policies of member states, as those largely comprise a national competence, and sometimes a subnational one. During the pandemic, EU institutions and EU member states identified issues where more EU coordination was desirable, for instance with regard to stockpiling and joint purchasing of medical products. Much is still unclear, however, about how a broadly supported revised EU health policy should look, particularly as this has traditionally been a field where EU citizens and EU member states saw little added value in the EU becoming involved. A newly proposed EU4Health programme saw a setback right at its inception, with its proposed funding being cut drastically by the European Council, even though EU health expenditure will continue to rise. This policy brief explores the future of EU health policy after the COVID-19 pandemic changed conventional thinking.
Topic:
Health, Europeanization, Coronavirus, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Europe

16387. Towards mutually beneficial CRU Policy Brief EU-West African migration cooperation? Assessing EU policy trends and their implications for migration cooperation

Author:
Johannes Claes, Leonie Jegen, and Omar N. Cham
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The political stakes of migration cooperation at domestic, regional and international levels are crucial when assessing the potential of West African states to establish mutually beneficial relations. European–West African migration cooperation is unlikely to be mutually beneficial without consideration of such local realities, and political and social stakes. This policy brief assesses the extent to which policy trends in the EU external migration governance framework, as put forward in the New Pact on Migration and Asylum and the new EU Multiannual Financial Framework for 2021-2027, match the Union’s commitment to building a mutually beneficial partnership with third countries. This question will be assessed by drawing on EU migration cooperation with West African states. It will show that the rhetoric of a mutually beneficial relationship and a paradigm shift is not demonstrated in the actual policy content.
Topic:
International Cooperation, Migration, and European Union
Political Geography:
Africa, Europe, and West Africa

16388. Kosovo’s NATO future: How to Square the Circle?

Author:
Visar Xhambazi
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief examines how ties between Kosovo and NATO can be strengthened. The fact that Serbia and four NATO member states do not recognize Kosovo’s independence, has hampered further integration into international organisations. The authors delineate possible political and military steps that Kosovo could take in the short and medium term, in order to prepare itself as a credible future partner. The Kosovo-Serbia Dialogue is the ultimate challenge for Kosovo in the long term and until a deal is reached, NATO integration is unlikely. Pristina has to be aware of the military-political equation, where every major military change could have political repercussions. Nonetheless, Kosovo can already commit to necessary reforms of its democratic system. Kosovo should also try to create ways of strengthening ties to the Alliance under the current circumstances, by for instance explicitly asking to establish a political dialogue. Vice versa, NATO could consider deepening cooperation within the ‘enhanced cooperation framework’. Through this interaction, the Alliance could aid Kosovo in reforming its political system, which would create a smoother path for Kosovo’s future integration aspirations.
Topic:
NATO, Politics, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Kosovo, and Serbia

16389. China and geopolitical considerations for investment screening in the Netherlands

Author:
Brigitte Dekker, Frans-Paul van der Putten, and Xiaoxue Martin
Publication Date:
12-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
This policy brief analyses whether there are grounds for the Dutch government to conduct critical assessments of direct investments, particularly from China, from a geopolitical perspective. The economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic warrant continued critical oversight of Chinese foreign investments and screening of such investments. Particularly during the current difficult times for the Dutch economy, there are new opportunities for Chinese investors as a result of increased needs for capital and/or new markets on the part of Dutch companies. This policy brief argues that from a geopolitical perspective there are two grounds for the Dutch government to screen investments: the Netherlands’ need to keep pace with changes in the geopolitical stance of the US and other Western countries towards China; and the risk that the Netherlands and the EU could lose a large part of their capacity for autonomous action in a geopolitical context. Hence there are two criteria that investment screening must fulfill. The first is that it must take account of the security and geopolitical implications of investments in high-tech companies. The second is that it must be aimed at preventing a high degree of strategic dependence on a single operator.
Topic:
Foreign Direct Investment, Geopolitics, Economy, Investment, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China and Asia

16390. The Nagorno-Karabakh war: A new balance of power in the southern Caucasus

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Despite the ambiguity around the final status of Nagorno-Karabakh, the war produced clear winners – Azerbaijan and Turkey – and losers – Armenia, France, the United States and Iran.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, Power Politics, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Turkey, Caucasus, France, Armenia, Azerbaijan, United States of America, and Nagorno-Karabakh

16391. Challenges of the Biden presidency: mending domestic and foreign rifts

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
11-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Although Joe Biden won the most votes ever in a national election, Trump expanded his base of support, receiving more votes than even Hillary Clinton did in 2016. This indicates that Biden is now facing the domestic challenge of the stark polarisation of American society as well as the challenge of restoring the international stature of the United States.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Domestic Policy, Polarization, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

16392. The Essence of the Strategic Competition with China

Author:
Michael J. Mazarr
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
U.S. national security strategy and defense policy have come to focus on China as the primary emphasis in the “strategic competition” outlined by recent U.S. strategy documents. Outside government, an avalanche of recent reports and essays lays out the China challenge in sometimes fervent terms, depicting an ideologically threatening revisionist state with malign intentions. As the Financial Times columnist Martin Wolf put it recently, “Across-the-board rivalry with China is becoming an organizing principle of U.S. economic, foreign and security policies.
Topic:
Security, Economics, International Cooperation, Hegemony, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

16393. The Erdogan Doctrine: Turkey’s regional strategy

Author:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Al Jazeera Center for Studies
Abstract:
Turkey’s involvement in various conflicts is a reflection of the Erdogan Doctrine that was formed by internal transformations that have led to the creation of a sophisticated military industry and a prosperous economy and shifted its view of its external role as an independent regional power.
Topic:
Military Affairs, Economy, Conflict, Erdogan, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Turkey and Middle East

16394. Rediscovering a Strategic Purpose for NATO

Author:
Peter Ricketts
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Watford is at first sight an unlikely place for a gathering of world leaders. This nondescript suburb to the north of London found itself briefly in the media spotlight one chilly afternoon in December 2019. Boris Johnson had taken time out from his election campaign just before polling day to host a meeting of NATO leaders. It was intended to be a signal of allied unity in the 70th anniversary year of the 1949 Washington Treaty.
Topic:
Defense Policy, NATO, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Europe, North America, and United States of America

16395. The Evolution of Authoritarian Digital Influence: Grappling with the New Normal

Author:
Shanthi Kalathil
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
As the world contends with the wide-ranging ramifications of the global COVID-19 pandemic, it has been simultaneously beset by the global information crisis, which mimics the shape of the pandemic itself in its viral effects across huge segments of the global population.
Topic:
Authoritarianism, Information Age, Public Health, Pandemic, COVID-19, Misinformation, and Digitalization
Political Geography:
Global Focus

16396. Quantum Computing’s Cyber-Threat to National Security

Author:
Steve Grobman
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
Quantum computing has the potential to bring tremendous advancements to science, including biology, chemistry, physics, and many other disciplines. The practical application will empower a stronger defense against future pandemics similar to COVID-19, not only in the acceleration of the development of vaccines and treatments, but also in optimizing currently unsolvable logistics problems such as how to deliver and route vaccines. In computer science, the “traveling salesman problem” shows it is impractical to find the optimal shortest path to visit cities once the list grows to even a few dozen. This same challenge in delivering vaccines to rural areas during a pandemic is exactly the type of problem that quantum computing will be well suited to solve.
Topic:
Security, National Security, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Innovation, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Quantum Computers
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

16397. No Competition Without Presence: Should the U.S. Leave Africa?

Author:
Katherine Zimmerman
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
American blood and treasure should be prioritized to secure U.S. national interests. The United States military is not the world’s police force, and where others can share the burden, the United States should add only its unique capabilities. But defending U.S. interests extends even into faraway lands, including Africa. While Africa may never be a top national security concern for the United States, a convergence of gains by state and nonstate actors alike there affect U.S. security and economic interests globally. Yet the Pentagon’s recent effort to rebalance its resources against great power competitors—especially China and Russia—after almost two decades of counterterrorism dominance places the commitment of U.S. military resources to Africa in question. Drawing down too far militarily in Africa risks losing influence on the continent to those very same state actors, erasing hard–fought counterterrorism gains, and compromising U.S. global interests.
Topic:
Military Strategy, Hegemony, Counter-terrorism, Military Intervention, and Strategic Competition
Political Geography:
Africa, North America, and United States of America

16398. China’s Strategic Objectives in a Post-COVID-19 World

Author:
Benjamin Tze Ern Ho
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
On 1 October 2019, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) celebrated its 70th birthday, thus marking another important landmark of modern China under the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). In commemorating the event, the Chinese government held a grand military parade with some 15,000 troops, more than 160 aircraft, and 580 active weapon systems during the event, including the latest generation nuclear missile systems such as the Dongfeng-41 mobile intercontinental ballistic missile. As the South China Morning Post reported, citing one insider, “the parade, which aims to showcase President Xi’s achievement in military modernization and reforms in both hardware and software will carry a lot of political meaning.” Given ongoing social protests in Hong Kong and problems in western societies at that time (such as Brexit talks in the UK and political opposition to President Trump in the United States) the contrast could not have been more stark: A powerful and prosperous China celebrates its international success while many western societies fail and flounder amidst their own domestic problems.
Topic:
Hegemony, Public Health, Strategic Competition, Pandemic, COVID-19, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:
China and Asia

16399. Don’t Trust Anyone: The ABCs of Building Resilient Telecommunications Networks

Author:
Andy Purdy, Vladimir M. Yordanov, and Yair Kler
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
The January issue of Prism carried an article titled “The Worst Possible Day”1 that included a discussion of the implications for the United States of banning Chinese company Huawei from networks that the United States and its allies rely on for national security-related communications. A supporter of the ban, the author, Thomas Donahue, emphasized the critical importance of using equipment from trusted sources in U.S. telecom infrastructure and that of its allies. He argued that the consequences of not doing so could be catastrophic when the United States needs to project power, or convincingly threaten the use of force, such as during a military conflict. The article concluded that the United States needs to seriously consider how to assure the use of trusted alternatives to Huawei equipment, whether by supporting the development of a U.S.-based manufacturer or consortium, or spending tens of billions of dollars to acquire either or both the manufacturers Nokia and Ericsson, or investing significantly in the two Nordic firms.
Topic:
Science and Technology, Communications, Resilience, and Telecommunications
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

16400. Is China Expansionist?

Author:
Kishore Mahbubani
Publication Date:
10-2020
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
PRISM
Institution:
Institute for National Strategic Studies (INSS), National Defense University
Abstract:
The Chinese soldier who pushed the Indian Colonel Santosh Babu (who tragically died) and thereby triggered the violent clash between Chinese and Indian soldiers in mid-June 2020 should be court-martialed. Both sides suffered casualties, the worst since 1975. This one push by one Chinese soldier has set back China-India relations severely, undermining all the good work that had been done over several years by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Premier Wen Jiabao, as well as by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping. Equally importantly, it has reinforced a growing belief, especially in the western world, that as China’s economy becomes stronger and stronger, China will abandon its “peaceful rise” and behave as a militarily expansionist power. This could well happen. It would be naive to believe otherwise. However, a deep study of Chinese history and culture would also show that the continuation of a peaceful rise is equally plausible.
Topic:
Imperialism, Military Strategy, Hegemony, Conflict, and Expansion
Political Geography:
China and Asia