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15971. Gulf Economic Outlook 2020 - Q1 Update

Author:
Hiba Itani
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
The Gulf countries face a somber outlook, with the GDP of the region expected to contract by 5.9% in 2020 compared to 2019. The Gulf countries whose economies remain highly dependent on hydrocarbon are ahead of “perfect storm” like scenario: a humanitarian crisis, that morphed into a global demand shock and pushed oil prices into a free-fall. A historical oil production cut agreement barely managed to improve prices.
Topic:
Oil, Natural Resources, GDP, and Economy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Gulf Nations

15972. Responding to the Coronavirus Crisis: Selected Ideas and Learnings for Asia’s Finance Management Leaders

Author:
David Hoffman
Publication Date:
01-2020
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Conference Board
Abstract:
Measures to contain the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak – including factory shutdowns, town-level lockdowns and quarantines, and transport bans affecting regional, national and international movement of goods and people – are resulting in a steep decline in household consumption. In parallel, ongoing disruptions of production, distribution, and retail have brought key industrial sectors to near standstill, set off ripple effects throughout regional supply chains, and created intense cash flow shortages from beginning to end of value chains. As of March 1, 2020, there has yet to emerge a definitive path to containment and remission of the crisis. Financial pressures on firms are increasing. The challenges wrought by the crisis for Finance managers are complex and cascading: cash flows are strained by stalled supply chains and channel operations, increasing uncertainty requires wider scenario forecasting, and access to capital has tightened. If virus containment and remission cannot be achieved in the short-term, financial markets are vulnerable to both private sector bankruptcies and household mortgage defaults. The specter of financial crisis looms large. The following assemblage of insights and learnings from our internal experts and member network will hopefully provide some helpful guideposts. The catalog below[1] essentially resolves down to three executive actions to address the challenges ahead:
Topic:
Financial Crisis, Business, Coronavirus, Industry, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Asia

15973. Mobilizing the Pacific Diaspora: A Key Component of Disaster Resilience

Author:
Siautu Alefaio
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Of all the earth’s regions, the Pacific is one of the most prone to natural disasters. Climate-related disasters such as floods, droughts, and tropical cyclones make the headlines, along with other natural disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. These may be accompanied by crises in public health. Today, many Pacific Island countries rely heavily on government relief and international aid when they face a disaster. Traditional sources of resilience can still play an important role, however, both within local communities and within the broader diaspora of Pacific communities in Aotearoa-New Zealand, Australia, and the US. A better understanding of Pacific cultures from within and a better recognition of the role of the Pacific diaspora and of churches in Pacific communities would also help improve development efforts and disaster response.
Topic:
Development, Humanitarian Aid, Natural Disasters, and Diaspora
Political Geography:
Australia, New Zealand, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

15974. Fire and Rain: The Legacy of Hurricane Lane in Hawai'i

Author:
Alison D. Nugent, Ryan J. Longman, Clay Trauernicht, Matthew P. Lucas, Henry F. Diaz, and Thomas W. Giambelluca
Publication Date:
08-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Hurricane Lane, which struck the Hawaiian islands on 22–25 August 2018, presented a textbook example of the compounding hazards that can be produced by a single storm. Over a four-day period, the island of Hawaiʻi received an average 17 inches of rainfall. One location received 57 inches, making Hurricane Lane the wettest tropical storm ever recorded in the state and the second wettest ever recorded in the US. At the same time, three wildfires on the island of Maui and one on Oʻahu burned nearly 3,000 acres of abandoned agricultural land. As the global climate warms, the number and strength of hurricanes is expected to increase, both in Hawaiʻi and in the Pacific region generally. A better understanding of the relationship between hurricanes and global climate change is critical in order to predict the vulnerability of people and resources during a severe weather event and to plan an appropriate course of action.
Topic:
Climate Change, Natural Disasters, Natural Resources, and Crisis Management
Political Geography:
North America, Asia-Pacific, and Hawaii

15975. Challenges and Responses to COVID-19: Experience from Asia

Author:
Nancy Davis Lewis and Jonathan D. Mayer
Publication Date:
07-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Experience in Asia suggests that public health and medical capacity are critical for an effective response to an emerging infectious disease. Political will and previous experience with disease outbreaks also play a role. Singapore ignored an important segment of its population and is now experiencing a huge spike in cases. China and Vietnam were able to enforce draconian measures, while in Japan and Hong Kong, civil society had a greater role in initiating effective controls. In several countries, local political outcomes have been affected by the perceived success or failure of leaders in controlling the crisis.
Topic:
Health Care Policy, Leadership, Crisis Management, Public Health, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
Japan, China, Asia, Vietnam, Singapore, and Hong Kong

15976. US-China Economic Relations Under Pressure From COVID-19

Author:
Christopher A. McNally
Publication Date:
06-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
With both the US and China facing a long economic slowdown, the bilateral relationship between the globe's two largest economies faces massive challenges. Making matters worse, Washington and Beijing have attempted to divert domestic attention away from their own substantial shortcomings by blaming each other. Given the economic uncertainty, each side has limited leverage to force the other into making concessions. Harsh rhetoric only serves to inflame tensions at the worst possible time. For better or worse, the US and China are locked in a messy economic marriage. A divorce at this time would exact an enormous cost in an already weakened economy.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Economy, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

15977. An Aging Population in Asia Creates Economic Challenges

Author:
Andew Mason, Sang-Hyop Lee, and Donghyun Park
Publication Date:
05-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
Elderly populations in Asia are expanding more quickly than other age groups. This shift in population age structure had two major impacts: demand for income support for the elderly will rise because their labor income tends to be extremely low; and gross domestic product (GDP) and other aggregate economic indicators will grow more slowly as growth in the effective labor force declines. In countries where government programs play an important role in old-age support, tax rates will have to rise or benefits will have to be curtailed or both—all options with significant political costs.
Topic:
Demographics, Labor Issues, Population, GDP, and Economy
Political Geography:
Asia and Asia-Pacific

15978. New Findings on Links between Urban Expansion and Viral Disease in Vietnam Offer Lessons for COVID-19

Author:
James H. Spencer, Sumeet Saksena, and Jefferson Fox
Publication Date:
04-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The current COVID-19 pandemic, which started in Wuhan, China, underscores what the public health community has warned about for more than two decades—the risk of viral diseases capable of spreading from animal to human hosts. The first outbreaks of “bird flu” (highly pathogenic avian influenza—HPAI, subtype H5N1)—raised similar concerns 20 years ago, concerns that have persisted with the outbreak of SARS in 2002–2004 and COVID-19 today. A recent study compared information on infrastructure and other aspects of economic development in Vietnam with outbreaks of avian influenza. While this research focuses on avian influenza in Vietnam, the study of links between infrastructure characteristics and new and reemerging health risks has broad applicability, especially given the global importance of today’s rapidly expanding urban landscapes.
Topic:
Infectious Diseases, Urban, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Vietnam

15979. China is Not Conducting Debt Trap Diplomacy in the Pacific--At Least Not Yet

Author:
Jonathan Pryke
Publication Date:
03-2020
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
In an atmosphere of heightened geostrategic competition, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has raised questions about the risk of debt problems in less-developed countries. Such risks are especially worrying for the small and fragile economies of the Pacific. A close look at the evidence suggests that China has not been engaged in debt-trap diplomacy in the Pacific, at least not so far. Nonetheless, if future Chinese lending continues on a business-as-usual basis, serious problems of debt sustainability will arise, and concerns about quality and corruption are valid.There have been recent signs that both China and Pacific Island governments recognize the need for reform. China needs to adopt formal lending rules similar to those of the multilateral development banks, providing more favorable terms to countries at greater risk of debt distress. Alternative approaches might include replacing or partially replacing EXIM loans with the interest-free loans and grants that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce already provides.
Topic:
Debt, Development, Diplomacy, Geopolitics, and Belt and Road Initiative (BRI)
Political Geography:
China, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

15980. China's Pandemic Diplomacy

Author:
Denny Roy
Publication Date:
09-2020
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
East-West Center
Abstract:
The COVID-19 pandemic threatened to damage China’s international reputation just as the Chinese government under Xi Jinping was peaking in its promotion of China as a model political system and superior international citizen. Beijing launched a massive diplomatic effort aimed at both foreign governments and foreign societies. The goal was to overcome initial negative publicity and to recast China as an efficient and heroic country in the eyes of international public opinion. The crisis created an opening for China to make gains in its international leadership credentials as the world saw the superpower United States falter. Ultimately, however, Chinese pandemic diplomacy contributed to a net decrease in China’s global prestige, largely because domestic political imperatives motivated behavior that generated international disapproval and distrust for the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) government. This paper summarizes the content of Chinese pandemic diplomacy through the key period of January through May 20201, identifies specific strengths and weaknesses of China’s effort, and briefly assesses its global impact.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:
China, Asia, North America, and United States of America