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201. The Risks of Foreign Fighters in the Ukraine-Russia Conflict

Author:
Arkadiusz Legieć
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
In none of the conflicts in the post-Soviet area have so many foreign fighters participated than in the conflict in eastern Ukraine since 2014. It is estimated that more than 17,000 fighters from 55 countries have fought there on either side. Those fighting on the Russian side pose a special challenge to Ukraine’s security and to neighbouring countries because these fighters can engage in terrorism or other radical actions and are part of Russia’s hybrid warfare.
Topic:
War, Bilateral Relations, Armed Forces, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, and Ukraine

202. Opportunity and Willingness as a Pre-Theoretical Framework in Explaining Wars

Author:
Burak Bilgehan Özpek
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:
International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:
Grand theories of international relations seek to produce general patterns, which are supposedly valid across time and space, yet fail to address particular actors and cases. According to Benjamin Most and Harvey Starr “general” and “universal” models, which only operate under certain explicitly prescribed conditions, do not suffice to generate a systemic understanding of foreign policy decisions and international phenomenon. The pre-theoretical framework of “opportunity and willingness,” which Most and Starr develop, produces a general model to analyze world affairs in a consistent way. This framework does not highlight any concrete factor such as power preponderance, regime type, and composition of elite or polarity as a condition for an international phenomenon. Instead, “opportunity and willingness” is more interested in what these factors represent and how these factors shape state behaviors. In other words, the “opportunity and willingness” framework suggests a model that still enables generalizations but also has power to explain particular cases.
Topic:
International Relations, War, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

203. THE LESSON OF THE AFGHANISTAN PAPERS

Author:
Navin Bapat
Publication Date:
12-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
The Washington Post’s publication of the Afghanistan Papers reveals that, although the official line was that the war was turning in favor of the US and its allies in Kabul, policymakers have long been aware that the situation was bleak, deteriorating, and unlikely to produce anything resembling a “victory.” Following 9/11, the US identified failed states as a key national security risk, in that these environments enabled terrorists, rebels, warlords, and other non-state actors to plot and plan operations against the US and the international community. Given that Afghanistan seemed to represent the prototypical weak state, the solution was obvious: Afghanistan needed to be transformed into a strong state that would resist non-state actors—particularly terrorist groups such as Al Qaeda. But in trying to achieve this lofty goal, the US has lost thousands of soldiers and contractors and spent several trillion dollars—and the costs will likely continue rising. The Afghans themselves have suffered even more, with over 100,000 deaths since 9/11. Despite all of this loss—and the open acknowledgment that the strategy is failing—there is little appetite among US policymakers for reversing course.
Topic:
War, Military Affairs, Afghanistan, Military Intervention, War on Terror, and Military Contractors
Political Geography:
Afghanistan and United States

204. How the geopolitical partnership between China and Russia threatens the West

Author:
Paul Dibb
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI)
Abstract:
We’re in an era when the risks of major-power conflict are growing. The most likely contenders are China, the rising power, and the US, the formerly dominant power that’s now in relative decline. The other worrying contingency is conflict between Russia and US-led NATO. But what about the third possibility: the prospect of China and Russia collaborating to challenge American power? The most dangerous scenario for America would be a grand coalition of China and Russia united not by ideology, but by complementary grievances. This paper examines Russian and Chinese concepts of great-power war in the 21st century, their views of the West and its military capabilities, and what risks they might both take to regain lost territories. The paper concludes by examining how America might react, the implications of all this for the West, including Australia, and what sort of armed conflict might be involved.
Topic:
War, Partnerships, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, and Asia-Pacific

205. Territorial acquisition, commitment, and recurrent war

Author:
Shoko Kohama
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Relations of the Asia-Pacific
Institution:
Japan Association of International Relations
Abstract:
This study investigates how territorial acquisition through war affects the durability of a successive ceasefire and determines what type of territorial acquisition is more detrimental to post-war peace. Despite the wealth of literature on recurrent war and on territory, the effect of territorial acquisition on war resumption has been understudied. This study shows that territorial acquisition creates expectations among adversaries for future power shifts, which results in a commitment problem that hinders peaceful revision of the existing ceasefire. Indeed, duration analysis of ceasefires following interstate wars since World War II shows that territorial change in war, especially acquisition of large and densely populated territories that have potential utility for greater power shifts, makes ceasefires more prone to failure. The analysis of Sino-Vietnamese ceasefires following militarized incidents over land and sea borders also illustrates the importance of territorial acquisition and the potential utility of the territory.
Topic:
War, Territorial Disputes, and Ceasefire
Political Geography:
Asia-Pacific

206. Libyan crisis reshuffles traditional alliances

Author:
Rina Bassist
Publication Date:
05-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies
Abstract:
Rina Bassist examines new alliances between international powers as a result of the ongoing Libyan civil war. The April 4 offensive launched by Gen. Khalifa Haftar and the National Libyan Army (LNA) to take control of Tripoli is now, as of May 2019, in its second month; regional actors are becoming fearful of a bloody stalemate. While the ongoing civil war in Libya has pitted mostly local forces against each other, countries such as Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Russia have allied against Italy and Great Britain, in an intensified diplomatic battle primarily being waged at the UN Security Council. In fact, the ongoing Libyan crisis has shattered traditional alliances. The usual global camps have been turned upside down, replaced instead by new, improbable partnerships. This article will deal with these new emerging alliances which are replacing, in this particular context, the long-established balance of power in the UN Security Council and the international arena. More particularly, we will look into the motives behind the strategic shift, and why world powers have abandoned their initial objectives for Libya.
Topic:
War, Alliance, Crisis Management, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

207. A Roundtable on Robert K. Brigham, Reckless: Henry Kissinger and the Tragedy of Vietnam

Author:
Amanda Demmer, Richard A. Moss, Scott Laderman, Luke A. Nichter, David F. Schmitz, and Robert K. Brigham
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Society for Historians of American Foreign Relations (SHAFR)
Abstract:
A Roundtable on Robert K. Brigham, Reckless: Henry Kissinger and the Tragedy of Vietnam
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, War, History, Vietnam War, and Diplomatic History
Political Geography:
United States and Vietnam

208. Libyan tribes in the shadows of war and peace

Author:
Hamzeh al-Shadeedi and Nancy Ezzeddine
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
National politicians and international actors cannot ignore the resilience of premodern tribalism in Libya. Libyan governance structures have historically relied on the top-down distribution of favours to selected tribal allies, rather than on inclusive and representative governance. Such arrangements took the shape of cyclical processes of selective co-optation, exclusion, rebellion and, again, new forms of selective co-optation. Even the uprisings of 2011, which symbolise the appearance of a national Libyan polity, was mobilised and organised along tribal lines. Accordingly, efforts to build a new Libyan state today should take into account the strong tribal character of Libya and should look into integrating tribal forces into the state in a manner that favours the central state project while simultaneously allowing for true representation and inclusion of all local and tribal entities. In this policy brief authors Al-Hamzeh Al-Shadeedi and Nancy Ezzedine provide recommendations on how to realistically and effectively engage with tribal actors and traditional authorities for the benefit of the current central state-building process while avoiding past mistakes.
Topic:
War, Governance, Conflict, and Tribes
Political Geography:
Libya and North Africa

209. United States Budgetary Costs and Obligations of Post-9/11 Wars through FY2020: $6.4 Trillion

Author:
Neta C. Crawford
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
Since late 2001, the United States has appropriated and is obligated to spend an estimated $6.4 Trillion through Fiscal Year 2020 in budgetary costs related to and caused by the post-9/11 wars—an estimated $5.4 Trillion in appropriations in current dollars and an additional minimum of $1 Trillion for US obligations to care for the veterans of these wars through the next several decades. The mission of the post-9/11 wars, as originally defined, was to defend the United States against future terrorist threats from al Qaeda and affiliated organizations. Since 2001, the wars have expanded from the fighting in Afghanistan, to wars and smaller operations elsewhere, in more than 80 countries — becoming a truly “global war on terror.” Further, the Department of Homeland Security was created in part to coordinate the defense of the homeland against terrorist attacks. These wars, and the domestic counterterror mobilization, have entailed significant expenses, paid for by deficit spending. Thus, even if the United States withdraws completely from the major war zones by the end of FY2020 and halts its other Global War on Terror operations, in the Philippines and Africa for example, the total budgetary burden of the post-9/11 wars will continue to rise as the US pays the on-going costs of veterans’ care and for interest on borrowing to pay for the wars. Moreover, the increases in the Pentagon base budget associated with the wars are likely to remain, inflating the military budget over the long run.
Topic:
War, Budget, Counter-terrorism, and Military Spending
Political Geography:
South Asia, Middle East, and United States of America

210. Not Our War: Iraq, Iran and Syria’s Approaches towards the PKK

Author:
I. Aytac Kadioglu
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Rest: Journal of Politics and Development
Institution:
Centre for Strategic Research and Analysis (CESRAN)
Abstract:
Terrorist violence led by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) is one of the major issues of Turkey since the 1980s. This violence is based upon Kurdish ethnic identity aimed towards establishing an independent Kurdish state in Turkey’s southeast, northern Iraq, northern Syria and north-western Iran. Despite this aim, the terrorist campaign of the PKK predominantly targets security forces and civilians in Turkey. However, the existence of a terrorist group such a long time raises a question of the impact of external support on the formation and maintenance of the PKK. While Turkey has criticised constantly its southern neighbours on the PKK’s activities and tactics, the regional approaches have been largely neglected in the existing scholarly literature. This article aims to close this gap by focusing on the role played by Iraq, Iran and Syria in the PKK terrorism and Turkey’s counter-terrorism policies. The article argues that the major reasons for the unsuccessful result of Turkey’s effort to destroy the PKK were the approaches of ignorance of the PKK activities and the use of the group as a trump card by the three neighbours and insufficient policies to keep under control the regional dimension of the conflict. The article critically analyses historical relationships between these three states and Turkey to explore how the regional dimension has affected the resolution of this conflict.
Topic:
Terrorism, War, Ethnicity, Conflict, and State Sponsored Terrorism
Political Geography:
Iraq, Europe, Iran, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, Syria, and Kurdistan

211. Large-N Analysis in the Study of Conflict

Author:
Belgin San-Akca
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
In this paper, I examine the generation and use of large-N datasets and issues related to operationalization and measurement in the quantitative study of inter-state and intra-state conflict. Specifically, I critically evaluate the work on transnational dimensions of internal conflict and talk about my own journey related to my research on interactions between states and nonstate armed groups. I address the gaps in existing research, the use of proxy measures in large-N data analysis, and talk in detail about observational data collection and coding. I argue that future research should bridge the gap between studies of conflict across the fields of Comparative Politics and International Relations. I make suggestions laying the standards of academic scholarship in collecting data and increasing transparency in research.
Topic:
International Relations, Civil War, War, Research, Conflict, and Data
Political Geography:
Global Focus

212. Mobilization Follies in International Relations: A Multimethod Exploration of Why Some Decision Makers Fail to Avoid War When Public Mobilization as a Bargaining Tool Fails

Author:
Konstantinos Travlos
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
This paper is intended to serve as a show and tell model for graduate students. Sections in parentheses and italics provide a running commentary by the author on the decisions taken throughout the paper. The goal is to permit students to follow the thinking of the researcher and see how it guided the theoretical, methodological and other decisions on content that finally made it into the paper. The paper in question explores how “public” military mobilization can be an attempt by weak actors to trigger intervention by third parties in a dispute with a stronger actor, in the hopes that the third parties will force the stronger actor to accommodate the weaker actor. This attempt is called “compellence via proxy”. In this research I explore why in reaction to failure, some weak actors are able to avoid escalation to war, while others are not. I posit that the flexibility of the decision makers of the weak actors is influenced by their ability to overhaul their winning coalition. A large-n evaluation of 68 cases of “public” mobilization, and an evaluation of six Balkan state mobilizations in the 1878-1909 era, do not support the idea that the size of the winning coalition, a part of the factors determining overhaul, has an association with war onset or its avoidance.
Topic:
War, Military Affairs, Crisis Management, Mobilization, and Coalition
Political Geography:
Global Focus

213. Can Memories of the Japan-Korea dispute on “Comfort Women” Resolve the Issue?

Author:
Gabriel Jonsson
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
About 80 percent of the estimated 70,000 to 200,000 ”comfort women” Japan took by coercion from 1932 to 1945 were Korean. The issue was long neglected by both countries for pragmatic reasons. When Korean women raised the issue around 1990 and the former comfort woman Kim Hak-sun came out in 1991, it emerged as a point of dispute. Solidarity organizations in both countries have contributed to raise the visibility of the issue. Museums in Seoul and Tokyo educate the public on victims’ suffering. However, increased awareness has not succeeded in producing a solution to the issue that satisfies both countries given their fixed positions. Japan has given no official apology to the victims. The crucial issue of legal responsibility remains unresolved. On December 28, 2015, Japan expressed an apology and agreed to provide $8.3 million for a foundation to be established by South Korea to support the victims. However, the issue remains unresolved since the victims were not consulted in advance of the agreement, as well as disagreement also on other issues.
Topic:
Human Rights, War, Women, History, Memory, Sexual Violence, and Comfort Women
Political Geography:
Japan, Asia, and Korea

214. Freeze and Advance: How North Korea Maneuvered to Get the Bomb and Prospects for Its Nuclear Future

Author:
George Hutchinson
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Journal of Korean Studies
Institution:
International Council on Korean Studies
Abstract:
U.S. administrations have opted to negotiate with North Korea in an attempt to curb its nuclear ambitions. Rather than producing their intended effect, past negotiations have inadvertently served as a vehicle for North Korea to methodically achieve its nuclear objectives. This paper presents evidence of North Korea’s decades-old drive to maneuver through negotiations while also advancing its nuclear development, including its resistance to sign the IAEA safeguards agreement and its subsequent demands under the Agreed Framework which allowed Pyongyang to advance the clandestine portions of its nuclear program. The paper also explains, more specifically, how North Korea has used the negotiating process with the U.S. to achieve its objectives. Nuclear negotiations have followed a repeating cycle, with North Korea: (1) getting to the negotiating table; (2) agreeing to a freeze under a system of verification; (3) obstructing the verification process intended to monitor the freeze and then (4) blaming the U.S. for the ultimate collapse of the agreement while continuing to advance its weapons program. Finally, the paper uses the ‘repeating cycle’ framework above to assess events that have occurred during the Trump administration in order to predict probable future outcomes.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, Treaties and Agreements, War, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

215. Toward Empowerment and Sustainability: Reforming America’s Syrian Refugee Policies

Author:
Sahar Aziz, Joanna Gardner, Tamara Anaie, and Omar Rana
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Security, Race and Rights (CSRR), Rutgers University School of Law
Abstract:
The number of refugees and displaced people worldwide has reached unprecedented levels. Of the world’s 68.5 million refugees and displaced people, by far the largest number are Syrian. The nearly 13 million Syrian refugees and internally-displaced persons account for sixty percent of Syria’s pre-war population. While media coverage has focused on Syrian refugees seeking asylum in third countries, such as Europe and the United States, eighty percent of the seven million externally displaced Syrians have sought refuge in the countries neighboring Syria: Jordan, Iraq, Turkey, Egypt and Lebanon resulting in an enormous strain on government services and the local economies. As an influential player in Middle East politics, the United States has a national interest in sustaining the capacity of international systems to respond to protracted refugee crises. Toward Empowerment and Sustainability: Reforming America’s Syrian Refugee Policies examines Jordan as a case study for informing U.S. Syrian refugee policy. Jordan’s experience exemplifies the myriad challenges facing neighboring countries that warrant a rethinking of America’s approach to the Syrian refugee crisis.
Topic:
Civil War, War, Refugee Issues, Refugees, Refugee Crisis, Displacement, Syrian War, and Proxy War
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

216. Albania – Serbia relations: Bridging over troubled waters

Author:
Gentiola Madhi and Jelica Minić
Publication Date:
11-2019
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Europeum Institute for European Policy
Abstract:
The relations between Albania and Serbia have been marked over past decades by the absence of political dialogue and the presence of diplomatic friction. This weakness has been reflected in the relations between respective peoples. Despite being the two major ethnicities in the region, the mutual relations are still far from being considered mature and demand for the presence and intermediation of third parties in order to smooth down long-lasting prejudices, intolerance and distrust. In the aftermath of the Kosovo war, both countries resumed the bilateral relations as of January 2001 through an exchange of diplomatic notes. However, the mutual relations did not break through until November 2014, when Prime Minister Rama visited Belgrade - the first official visit of an Albanian leader in Serbia in 68 years. This symbolic and historical act created a fresh political momentum and imprinted a hopeful beginning of a new cycle of political and societal rapprochement.
Topic:
Diplomacy, Ethnic Conflict, War, and Bilateral Relations
Political Geography:
Eastern Europe, Serbia, Balkans, and Albania

217. Five Years of War in Donbas

Author:
Robert E. Hamilton
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Abstract:
The war in the eastern Ukrainian region known as the Donbas has killed over 13,000 people, displaced millions, and led to the worst rupture in relations between the Russian Federation and the West since the end of the Cold War. The war was caused by inherent cleavages in Ukrainian society, combined with clumsy and self-interested intervention by outside powers. The war’s effects on Ukraine have been profound: the collapse of the post-Soviet Ukrainian political elite; billions of dollars in direct and indirect losses to the Ukrainian economy; a wholesale restructuring of the Ukrainian armed forces; social dislocation and psychological trauma; and unprecedented environmental damage. Despite these sad legacies, there are reasons to be optimistic that a settlement to the conflict is in view. The exhaustion and frustration of people in the separatist-controlled regions, Russia’s changing policy on the war—at least in part a result of rising frustration among the Russian public—and the election of a new Ukrainian government without regional ties or ties to networks of oligarchs all contribute to the possibility of peace. But in order for peace to endure after the war, the Ukrainian state must construct a broad-based, civic national identity, and it must tackle the country’s endemic corruption. The international community must be engaged in both crafting a settlement to the war and helping Ukraine deal with its consequences. External observers may be inclined to point to social division and corruption as the internal causes of the war, and argue that Ukraine has to fix itself before the outside world can intervene to help. And this is true as far as it goes. But it is also true that the outside world contributed to the start of war in Ukraine by making the country the object in a geopolitical tussle between Russia and the West. Any honest accounting of the war’s history must acknowledge this fact. And any fair treatment of Ukraine after the war should seek to compensate it through significant, long-term assistance.
Topic:
War, Territorial Disputes, Conflict, and Separatism
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, and Eastern Europe

218. Generals vs. Islamists in Libya

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
04-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Regional rivals clash via proxies in Tripoli fight.
Topic:
War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Africa and Libya

219. The Iran-Israel War Is Here

Publication Date:
08-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
More than a decade of civil strife has opened up the region for the escalating state-to-state conflict.
Topic:
Nuclear Weapons, War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Regional Power
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

220. Beyond Outrage

Author:
Eran Lerman
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
What Can and Should Be Done to Limit the Scope of the Turkish Assault on Rojava?
Topic:
War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Middle East, Asia, and Kurdistan

221. Prepare For War, The Right Way

Author:
David M. Weinberg
Publication Date:
10-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
The IDF must return to the fundamentals: ground maneuver to achieve “hachra’a” – decisive outcomes.
Topic:
Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

222. The End of War: How a Robust Marketplace and Liberal Hegemony Are Leading to Perpetual World Peace

Author:
Michael Mousseau
Publication Date:
07-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
Permanent world peace is beginning to emerge. States with developed market-oriented economies have foremost interests in the principle of self-determination of all states as the foundation for a robust global marketplace. War among these states, even making preparations for war, is not possible, because they are in a natural alliance to preserve and protect the global order. Among other states, weaker powers, fearing those that are stronger, tend to bandwagon with the relatively benign market-oriented powers. The result is a powerful liberal global hierarchy that is unwittingly, but systematically, buttressing states' embrace of market norms and values, moving the world toward perpetual peace. Analysis of voting preferences of members of the United Nations General Assembly from 1946 to 2010 corroborates the influence of the liberal global hierarchy: states with weak internal markets tend to disagree with the foreign policy preferences of the largest market power (i.e., the United States), but more so if they have stronger rather than weaker military and economic capabilities. Market-oriented states, in contrast, align with the market leader regardless of their capabilities. Barring some dark force that brings about the collapse of the global economy (such as climate change), the world is now in the endgame of a five-century-long trajectory toward permanent peace and prosperity.
Topic:
Peace Studies, War, Hegemony, Peacekeeping, Global Security, and Liberal Order
Political Geography:
United States, United Nations, and Global Focus

223. The Demographic Transition Theory of War: Why Young Societies Are Conflict Prone and Old Societies Are the Most Peaceful

Author:
Deborah Jordan Brooks, Stephen G. Brooks, Brian D. Greenhill, and Mark L. Haas
Publication Date:
02-2019
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
International Security
Institution:
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
Abstract:
The world is experiencing a period of unprecedented demographic change. For the first time in human history, marked disparities in age structures exist across the globe. Around 40 percent of the world's population lives in countries with significant numbers of elderly citizens. In contrast, the majority of the world's people live in developing countries with very large numbers of young people as a proportion of the total population. Yet, demographically, most of the world's states with young populations are aging, and many are doing so quickly. This first-of-its kind systematic theoretical and empirical examination of how these demographic transitions influence the likelihood of interstate conflict shows that countries with a large number of young people as a proportion of the total population are the most prone to international conflict, whereas states with the oldest populations are the most peaceful. Although societal aging is likely to serve as a force for enhanced stability in most, and perhaps all, regions of the world over the long term, the road to a “demographic peace” is likely to be bumpy in many parts of the world in the short to medium term.
Topic:
Demographics, War, International Security, Democracy, and International Relations Theory
Political Geography:
Russia, United States, Japan, China, Germany, and Global Focus

224. Dying Light: War and Trade of the Separatist-Controlled Areas of Ukraine

Author:
Artem Kochnev
Publication Date:
01-2019
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW)
Abstract:
The paper investigates how war and the war-related government policies affected economic activity of the separatist-controlled areas of Ukraine. The paper applies a quasi-experimental study design to estimate the impact of two events on the separatist-controlled areas: the introduction of the separatist control and the introduction of the second round of the trade ban, which was imposed by the government of Ukraine on the separatist-controlled territories in 2017. Using a difference-in-difference estimation procedure that controls for the yearly and monthly effects, individual fixed effects, and the region-specific time shocks, the study finds that the separatist rule decreased the economic activity by 38% in the Donetsk region and 51% in the Luhansk region according to the preferred specifications. At the same time, the trade ban of the year 2017 against the major industrial enterprises of the separatist-controlled areas decreased luminosity by 20%. The paper argues that the trade disruptions due to the war actions were nested within the negative effect of the separatist rule and accounted for half of it.
Topic:
Development, Political Economy, War, Conflict, Macroeconomics, and Trade
Political Geography:
Europe and Ukraine

225. Iraq After ISIS: The Other Half of Victory Dealing with the Civil Dimension

Author:
Anthony H. Cordesman
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Strategic and International Studies
Abstract:
The United States, its allies, and international organizations are just beginning to come to grips with the civil dimensions of "failed state" wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, the Sudans, Syria, and Yemen. In each case, it is clear that the civil dimension of the war will ultimately be as important as the military one. Any meaningful form of "victory" requires far more than defeating the current extremist threat in military terms, and reaching some temporary compromise between the major factions that divide the country. The current insurgent and other security threats exist largely because of the deep divisions within the state, the past and current failures of the government to deal with such internal divisions, and the chronic failure to meet the economic, security, and social needs of much of the nation's population. In practical terms, these failures make a given host government, other contending factions, and competing outside powers as much of a threat to each nation’s stability and future as Islamic extremists and other hostile forces. Regardless of the scale of any defeat of extremists, the other internal tensions and divisions with each country also threaten to make any such “victory” a prelude to new forms of civil war, and/or an enduring failure to cope with security, stability, recovery, and development. Any real form of victory requires a different approach to stability operations and civil-military affairs. In each case, the country the U.S. is seeking to aid failed to make the necessary economic progress and reforms to meet the needs of its people – and sharply growing population – long before the fighting began. The growth of these problems over a period of decades helped trigger the sectarian, ethnic, and other divisions that made such states vulnerable to extremism and civil conflict, and made it impossible for the government to respond effectively to crises and wars.
Topic:
Security, War, Fragile/Failed State, ISIS, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, Africa, United States, Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, Syria, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sundan

226. Human Cost of the Post-9/11 Wars: Lethality and the Need for Transparency

Author:
Neta C. Crawford
Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University
Abstract:
All told, between 480,000 and 507,000 people have been killed in the United States’ post-9/11 wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. This tally of the counts and estimates of direct deaths caused by war violence does not include the more than 500,000 deaths from the war in Syria, raging since 2011, which the US joined in August 2014.
Topic:
War, Conflict, 9/11, War on Terror, Statistics, Transparency, and Iraq War
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iraq, South Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, and United States of America

227. Victims and press after the war

Author:
Vivian Newman Pont, Maria Paula Ángel, and María Ximena Dávila
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Dejusticia
Abstract:
The drive to conduct this research was born out of the tension that developed on May of 2017 in the context of the journalistic coverage of the exhumations of those who died in the Bojayá massacre. Thus, this document has the purpose of asking and answering, from a socio-legal perspective, the following question: How can the events related to the armed conflict and to the transition to peace be narrated without violating the right to privacy of the victims? Or, how can a journalist record a dramatic event or recount an injuste that moves readers while respecting the limits of the private lives of the victims? To answer the question, this document examines the tensions between rights that can arise out of narrating the transition to peace as part of the journalistic profession, with the hope that the conclusion set forth is valid not only for the Bojayá case, but also in future transition years, as both victims and society in general benefit from a free and responsible press and the respect for private lives.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, War on Drugs, Freedom of Expression, Peace, Repression, and The Press
Political Geography:
Colombia

228. Guerre et paix - rendons la paix plus captivante que la guerre

Author:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
En 2004, le leader d’Al-Qaida, Ayman al-Zawahiri, déclarait: “Plus de la moitié de la lutte a lieu dans les médias… nous sommes au cœur d’une bataille médiatique dans la course pour gagner les esprits et les cœurs de notre Oumma (Communauté musulmane)”[1] Alors que l’incitation à la violence est largement connue du grand public, un autre pan entier de la stratégie de communication djihadiste l’est beaucoup moins : l’utilisation de la poésie, de la musique ou encore de la narration comme vecteur de son idéologie, notamment au travers de plateformes en lignes.[2] La pieuvre artistique et médiatique mise en place par l’État Islamique depuis sa création lui a permis d’exploiter toutes les possibilités du web. Que ce soit à travers la publication de revue et communiqués ou encore la production de vidéos et photos, tous les volets de la stratégie de l’État Islamique ont eu pour cœur opérationnel internet et ses milliers de fenêtres qu’il ouvre vers le reste du monde.[3] Ainsi, l’Etat Islamique est actif en ligne sur tous les fronts : diffusion de son idéologie, levée de fonds, recrutement de sympathisants, coordination et revendication de ses attaques, etc.
Topic:
Security, War, Islamic State, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East

229. The Increasing Importance of Hybrid Politics in Europe: Cyber Power Is Changing the Nature of Politics

Author:
Gabriel Cederberg and Jarno limnéll
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
The Geneva Centre for Security Policy
Abstract:
This paper examines the concepts of cyber politics and cyber-enabled hybrid warfare. It pays specific attention to the vulnerabilities of modern Western societies from a strategic-political perspective. The paper concludes that instead of cyber politics as such, a new kind of politics is needed – hybrid politics. Hybrid politics will be presented as a potentially winning concept for European security. Key Points: Issues related to cyberspace and its uses have risen to the highest levels of international politics, creating an area and discipline known as cyber politics. Protecting critical infrastructure and services from cyber threats is a complicated matter. The cyber domain is a central part of modern hybrid warfare, and malicious cyber-technical and cyber-psychological threats have both increased. Hybrid politics is a useful concept to describe both the importance of a holistic approach and the nature of high politics in the modern security reality. Hybrid politics is constantly changing the modern political process. The European Union (EU) should primarily understand hybrid politics as a potentially “winning concept” and take active steps to implement and sustain this understanding.
Topic:
Security, Science and Technology, War, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:
Europe and European Union

230. Is the World on the Road to Peace or War?

Author:
Hans Blix
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Abstract:
The SIPRI Lecture is an annual event focusing on major themes in peace and security. The event provides a platform for prominent global thought leaders sharing the values underpinning SIPRI, its research and other activities. The inaugural SIPRI Lecture was held in May 2018 on the theme ‘Is the world on the road to peace or war?’ in the presence of His Majesty Carl XVI Gustaf and Her Majesty Queen Silvia of Sweden. The lecture honoured HE Dr Hans Blix and his lifelong career of distinguished public service dedicated to peace, disarmament, non-proliferation and conflict resolution and was followed by a distinguished panel discussion.
Topic:
Arms Control and Proliferation, War, Nuclear Power, Disarmament, Nonproliferation, and Peace
Political Geography:
Europe and Sweden

231. September 2018 Issue

Author:
Bryant Neal Viñas, Mitchell D. Silber, Brian Dodwell, Paul Cruickshank, Michael Knights, Audrey Alexander, Rebecca Turkington, and Derek Henry Flood
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
Seventeen years after 9/11, the threat posed by jihadi terrorist groups is in a state of flux. The demise of the Islamic State’s territorial ‘caliphate’ has demoralized some of its supporters and eroded some of the group’s ability to direct attacks in the West. But the Islamic State still has a large sympathizer base, a significant presence in Syria and Iraq, and dangerous nodes in other parts of the world. Meanwhile, al-Qa`ida and its network of affiliates and allies have grown in strength in some regions and could pivot back to international terror. Worryingly, both groups in the years to come may be able to draw on an ‘officer class’ of surviving foreign fighters who forged personal bonds in Syria and Iraq. In our cover article, Bryant Neal Viñas, the first American to be recruited into al-Qa`ida after 9/11, writes about his experiences for the first time in the hope that his case study sheds light on the foreign fighter issue. Viñas was convicted for his actions and recently completed his prison sentence. His article is co-authored by Mitchell Silber, who supervised analysis and investigation of his case at the NYPD Intelligence Division. During his time in the Afghan-Pakistan border region between 2007 and 2008, Viñas came into contact with a variety of jihadi groups, was trained by al-Qa`ida, and spent time with several of the group’s most senior figures. After his arrest, Viñas immediately started cooperating with U.S. authorities and contributed significantly to the near destruction of al-Qa`ida in the tribal areas of Pakistan. Our interview this month is with Kevin McAleenan, the commissioner of U.S. Customs and Border Protection. Drawing on extensive field reporting, Michael Knights documents how Houthi forces in Yemen metamorphosed in just five years from guerrilla war fighters into a powerful military entity capable of deploying medium-range ballistic missiles. His article provides a case study of how an ambitious militant group can capture and use a state’s arsenals and benefit from Iran’s support. Audrey Alexander and Rebecca Turkington find mounting evidence that women engaged in terrorism-related activity receive more lenient treatment by the criminal justice system than their male counterparts. Derek Flood reports on how the Islamic State’s cave and tunnel complexes in the Hamrin Mountains are helping it sustain insurgent attacks in northern Iraq.
Topic:
Gender Issues, Terrorism, War, Counter-terrorism, Al Qaeda, Islamic State, Borders, 9/11, Houthis, and Foreign Fighters
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Yemen, and Global Focus

232. Fall 2018 edition of Strategic Visions

Author:
Alan McPherson
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Strategic Visions
Institution:
Center for the Study of Force and Diplomacy, Temple University
Abstract:
Strategic Visions: Volume 18, Number I Contents News from the Director ......................2 New Web Page...............................2 Fall 2018 Colloquium.....................2 Fall 2018 Prizes..................................3 Spring 2019 Lineup.........................4 Note from the Davis Fellow.................5 Note from the Non-Resident Fellow....7 Update from Germany By Eric Perinovic.............................8 A Conversation with Marc Gallicchio By Michael Fischer.......................10 Fall 2018 Colloquium Interviews Kelly Shannon...............................12 Jason Smith...................................14 Drew McKevitt.............................16 Book Reviews Implacable Foes: War in the Pacific, 1944-1945 Brandon Kinney.........................18 Consuming Japan: Popular Culture and the Globalizing of 1980s America Taylor Christian.........................20 To Master the Boundless Sea: The US Navy, the Marine Environment, and the Cartography of Empire Graydon Dennison.....................23 Losing Hearts and Minds: American-Iranian Relations and International Education During the Cold War Jonathan Shoup.........................25 The Action Plan. Or: How Reagan Convinced the American People to Love the Contras Joshua Stern..................................27
Topic:
Diplomacy, War, Military Affairs, Grand Strategy, and Empire
Political Geography:
Japan, Iran, Middle East, Asia, and Asia-Pacific

233. ARAB STUDIES JOURNAL VOL. XXVI, NO. 2

Author:
Shehab Ismail, Reem Bailony, Neha Vora, Ahmed Kanna, Graham Auman Pitts, Judith Naeff, Maha Nassar, Benoit Challand, Jocelyn Sage Mitchell, David Gutman, Alexa Firat, Matthew L. Keegan, Matthew S. Hopper, Johan Mathew, and Thomas F. McDow
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Arab Studies Journal
Institution:
Arab Studies Institute
Abstract:
We are proud to feature a collection of pieces that innovate new methodological approaches, confront the relationship between knowledge and power, and speak to the urgent concerns of the present, infrastructure, ecology, migration, and war. In “Epicures and Experts: The Drinking Water Controversy in British Colonial Cairo,” Shehab Ismail explores taste, class, and the environment. When in 1905 the Cairo Water Company altered its source of intake to deep wells instead of the Nile, it pitted experts, officials, and the urban poor in a battle over knowledge, medical traditions, and water practices. In tracing the five year struggle in which the palate became a battleground, Ismail reveals how taste, as a mode of embodied knowledge became a site of confrontation between heterogenous epistemic persuasions. In “From Mandate Borders to the Diaspora: Rashaya’s Transnational Suffering and the Making of Lebanon in 1925,” Reem Bailony traces debates on the social, political, and economic constructions of Lebanon and Syria, both in the borders of the French Mandate and well outside of it. By placing mahjar studies and Middle East studies in close conversation, Bailony both calls for and provides a model for a methodology that transgresses the territorial confines of the nation-state. In doing so, she reveals the crucial role of the mahjar in consolidating Lebanon as nationally distinct from Syria and in need of different sectarian arrangements. Neha Vora and Ahmed Kanna contribute reflections on two decades of ethnographic experiences researching Dubai and other cities in the Arabian Penninsula. “De-exceptionalizing the Field: Anthropological Reflections on Migration, Labor, and Identity in Dubai,” explores and critiques scholarly identity and authority in a call to develop understandings of Gulf cities that address migration, diaspora, place, and belonging. Vora and Kanna thus put the individual experiences of politics, geography, racialization, and minoritization into conversation with the knowledge that is produced on these historical forces. Graham Pitts reveals how the “human ecology” of Lebanon evolved according to the logic of an expanding and retracting global capitalism in “The Ecology of Migration: Remittances in World War I Mount Lebanon.” In detailing the material and environmental history of migration as well as highlighting World War I, the famine, and remittances, Pitts traces a broader trajectory of Lebanon’s history. In “Writing Shame in Asad’s Syria,” Judith Naef analyzes how the Syrian author Khaled Khalifa built feelings of shame into the literary structure of his novel No Knives in the Kitchens of this City. She traces the multiple forms of shame and how, like rot, its pervasive spread unravels relations. Shame, she suggests, is at once contagious and repulsive, and is one site to both refect on and understand the unraveling of Syrian social landscapes under the Asads’ authoritarianism. We ofer as always a robust set of reviews and review essays that feature the latest contributions to the study of the Middle East.
Topic:
Migration, War, History, Labor Issues, Infrastructure, Capitalism, Colonialism, Anthropology, and Ecology
Political Geography:
Middle East, Palestine, North Africa, Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, and Dubai

234. Politics, Governance, and Reconstruction in Yemen

Author:
Stacey Philbrick Yadav, Marc Lynch, Sheila Carapico, Dana Moss, Silvana Toska, Ala'a Jarban, Ala Qasem, Mareike Transfeld, Marie-Christine Heinze, Hafez Albukari, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Elisabeth Kendall, Laurent Bonnefoy, Susanne Dahlgren, Peter Salisbury, and April Longley Alley
Publication Date:
01-2018
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Yemen’s war has become one of the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophes. The preventable consequences of the war have been well-documented and the military conflict is now at a stalemate. For Yemenis, 2018 promises a sustained downward spiral. The war and humanitarian catastrophe in Yemen has received relatively little analytical or scholarly attention compared to the conflicts elsewhere in the region, such as Syria and Iraq. Both the Houthis and the Saudi-UAE coalition tightly control access for journalists and researchers, making up-to-date, on the ground research difficult. Media coverage is dominated by propaganda, reinforcing prevailing narratives of either Iranian encroachment or Saudi adventurism. These conditions have not been conducive to sustained, rigorous, empirically and theoretically informed analysis of Yemen. How have political coalitions and movements adapted to more than two years of war and economic devastation? How does governance actually work under the Houthis, the coalition, and in other areas of the country? How has the intervention changed the prospects of the southern secessionist movement? What prospects exist for a political agreement which might end the war? On November 10, the Project on Middle East Political Science convened a workshop on these questions with participants from Yemen, Europe, and the United States. The invited scholars and analysts all have longstanding research ties to the country, and most have been able to carry out very recent research inside the country. It is worth noting that assembling the workshop proved exceptionally challenging. The highly polarized political situation in Yemen extends to the analytical community, making publishing analysis a potential problem for Yemenis who live – or aspire to return – to Yemen. More directly, changing American travel regulations ultimately deterred numerous invited participants from attempting to reach Washington D.C., including several Yemeni scholars and several European scholars with deep experience in the region. While some participated virtually, the loss of a number of critically important Yemeni and European scholars from the workshop tangibly represents the broader cost to academia of these travel restrictions. Despite these obstacles, the workshop brought together a remarkable group of American, European, and Yemeni scholars. Their papers and workshop discussions offered insightful analysis into the central actors, alliances, and war dynamics, and how these are likely to shape whatever future agreement may arise in Yemen. This collection offers no clear path forward for policymakers. But it does draw on the depth of knowledge and detailed research conducted by an interdisciplinary group of scholars who have committed themselves to the study of Yemen and who doubtless hope that this research can help to inform policies that promote a peaceful resolution to this devastating war and an inclusive and sustainable process of rebuilding.
Topic:
Development, Education, Politics, War, Diaspora, Governance, Alliance, Youth, Islamism, Revolution, State Building, Jihad, Houthis, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Yemen, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, and Gulf Nations

235. The Politics of Post-Conflict Reconstruction

Author:
Marc Lynch, Maha Yahya, Frances Brown, Steven Heydemann, Jacqueline Parry, Dylan O'Driscoll, Caroline Abadeer, Dalia Ghanem-Yazbeck, Deen Sharp, Frederic M. Wehrey, Peter Salisbury, Sune Haugbolle, Pietro Stefanini, and Reyko Huang
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS)
Abstract:
Reconstruction following the devastating wars and state failure which followed the Arab uprisings of 2011 has become an increasingly pressing issue. In Iraq, the liberation of territories from the Islamic State came at great human and infrastructural cost. In Syria, the reconquest of territories by the regime of Bashar al-Asad has been accompanied by international discussions of modest steps towards reconstruction, after a war which generated more the half of the world’s refugees and internally displaced whilst sowing devastation across much of the country. Yemen has endured the near complete destruction of its infrastructure and economy, leaving much of the population at risk of starvation and disease. Libya is devastated by its multiple conflicts and the successive disintegration of what is left of its institutional structures. While none of these wars has yet fully ended, international and expert attention is increasingly focused on the impending challenges of reconstruction, repatriation and reconciliation. It is difficult to exaggerate the extent of the destruction which these wars have left behind. These wars have unfolded across multiple levels. Millions of people have been dispossessed from their homes, driven into exile at home or abroad. Infrastructure has been devastated, with many cities and towns utterly destroyed. National economies have evolved into local war economies. State and local institutions have been fundamentally reshaped. Communal polarization around sectarian or political identities has progressed to extreme levels. Entire communities have been severely impoverished as health and educational attainments plummet. And the individual trauma suffered by tens of millions of people afflicted by conflict and violence will have enduring psychological and developmental effects.
Topic:
Security, Humanitarian Aid, War, Reconstruction, Authoritarianism, Islamic State, Transitional Justice, Conflict, Protests, Memory, Negotiation, Peace, and Police
Political Geography:
Middle East, Libya, Yemen, Gaza, Algeria, Lebanon, and Syria

236. Preventing Endless War Requires Real Congressional Oversight—Not New War Authority

Author:
Ken Gude and Kate Martin
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
Congress needs to do real oversight about how and whether the current wars should continue before considering any new AUMF.
Topic:
Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, Legislation, Federalism, and Civil-Military Relations
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

237. Taking stock of international law responses to resource wars

Author:
Lys Kulamadayil
Publication Date:
03-2018
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:
In the last 20 years, a significant body of literature has evolved around the phenomenon of resource wars. The term “resource war” is used to describe different linkages between natural resources and conflict. It refers to: (1) conflicts that are fought over access and control of scare, or valuable resources; (2) conflicts sustained through the trade with resources; (3) conflicts that involve the looting of the natural resources by an occupying power, and finally; (4) conflicts where the destruction of the environment or of industrial facilities serving resource exploitation is used as a strategy of warfare. Resource wars certainly have diverse legal implications, yet international law norms have primarily developed in response to the following sets of issues.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, Natural Resources, Conflict, and Law of Armed Conflict
Political Geography:
United States and Sierra Leone

238. Moscow’s Syria Campaign: Russian Lessons for the Art of Strategy

Author:
Dima Adamsky
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Institut français des relations internationales (IFRI)
Abstract:
This monograph argues that the Syrian experience may leave a major imprint on Russian strategic thought and operational art. It explores Moscow’s Syrian campaign and seeks to answer the following questions: How did the Russian art of strategy manifest itself? How did Moscow design the campaign and then estimate its operational performance, judged against its own ends? Which lessons has the Russian strategic community learned? How might these insights project on Moscow’s future strategic behavior? Which strategic trends are more likely than others?
Topic:
War, Military Strategy, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Russia, Middle East, and Syria

239. Dossier 3: Syria’s Bloody and Unforgiving War

Author:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research
Abstract:
What to make of the war in Syria? It is a bewilderingly terrible war – so many killed, so much destruction, so many thrown out of their homes and into a hostile world. An end seems unlikely. Peace negotiations open and then close. Our latest Tricontinental dossier provides some context for this war. It offers a window into how toxic the debate has been about this conflict, how difficult it has been to agree even on the basic facts. To enrich our discussion, we present an interview with Syrian economist Omar Dahi.
Topic:
War, Conflict, Syrian War, and Peace
Political Geography:
Middle East and Syria

240. Journal of Advanced Military Studies: Superpowers

Author:
Ed Erickson, Christian H. Heller, T. J. Linzy, Mallory Needleman, Michael Auten, Anthony N. Celso, Keith D. Dickson, Jamie Shea, Ivan Falasca, Steven A. Yeadon, Joshua Tallis, and Ian Klaus
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
There are a variety of reasons to study geopolitical rivalries, and analysts, officers, and politicians are rediscovering such reasons amid the tensions of the last several years. The best reason to study geopolitical rivalries is the simplest: our need to better understand how power works globally. Power not only recurs in human and state affairs but it is also at their very core. Today’s new lexicon—superpower, hyperpower, and great power—is only another reminder of the reality of the various ways that power manifests itself. Power protects and preserves, but a polity without it may be lost within mere decades. Keith D. Dickson’s article in this issue of MCU Journal, “The Challenge of the Sole Superpower in the Postmodern World Order,” illuminates how fuzzy some readers may be in their understanding of this problem; his article on postmodernism calls us to the labor of understanding and reasoning through the hard realities. Ed Erickson’s survey of modern power is replete with cases in which a grand state simply fell, as from a pedestal in a crash upon a stone floor. Modern Japan, always richly talented, rose suddenly as a world actor in the late nineteenth century, but the Japanese Empire fell much more quickly in the mid-twentieth century. A state’s power—or lack thereof—is an unforgiving reality. This issue of MCU Journal, with its focus on rivalries and competition between states, is refreshingly broad in its selection of factors—from competing for or generating power. Dr. Erickson recalls that Alfred Thayer Mahan settled on six conditions for sea power, all still vital. Other authors writing for this issue emphasize, by turns, sea power (Steven Yeadon, Joshua Tallis, and Ian Klaus); cyberpower (Jamie Shea); alliances (T. J. Linzy and Ivan Falasca); information (Dickson); and proxies (Michael Auten, Anthony N. Celso, and others).
Topic:
Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Islam, Terrorism, War, History, Power Politics, Military Affairs, European Union, Seapower, Cities, Ottoman Empire, Hybrid Warfare, Cyberspace, Soviet Union, and Safavid Empire
Political Geography:
Britain, Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, Lithuania, Georgia, North Africa, Syria, North America, and United States of America

241. Pugwash Workshop on Cyber Security and Warfare

Author:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Publication Date:
12-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs
Abstract:
On 19-20 December 2018 Pugwash held a workshop in Geneva, co-sponsored and hosted by the Geneva Center for Security Policy (GCSP), on the topic of cyber security and warfare. The meeting gathered together 20 experts and practitioners from Europe, North and South America, and Asia, for a broad set of discussions. Below is a summary of some of the key points that arose over the one-and- a-half days of discussions1, followed by a list of possible areas of further future exploration.
Topic:
Security, War, Cybersecurity, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

242. Corruption in Yemen’s War Economy

Publication Date:
11-2018
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Sana'a Center For Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Corruption, or the abuse of power for private gain, has been deeply entrenched in the Yemeni political economy for decades. Over the course of the ongoing conflict, however, as the war has fragmented and regionalized the country, state capture in Yemen has become far more complex. In the war economy, patronage networks are now emerging among previously marginal or unknown figures. The financial involvement of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has extended patronage across national borders. Alleged collusion between Houthi-affiliated importers and officials allied with the internationally recognized Yemeni government indicates patronage networks that potentially cross the frontlines of the war themselves. As greater numbers and a wider variety of actors profit from illicit activity in the war economy, vested economic interests in continued conflict become more entrenched. If state capture is among the main drivers of Yemen’s war economy, then post-conflict recovery must include a strong anti-corruption agenda. Policymakers must begin planning to address corruption as a part of a potential post-conflict strategy. Given the multi-faceted pervasiveness of corruption in Yemen, any anti-corruption agenda must aim to understand the complex configuration of patronage networks in Yemen, to be introduced gradually, and to get the buy-in of as wide a group of Yemenis as possible. Without these basic building blocks, more specific policy changes such as encouraging transparency or reducing conflicts of interest may founder. Corruption has become deeply entrenched in Yemen; any post-conflict anti-corruption agenda must be great in scope and long-term in vision.
Topic:
Corruption, Economics, Government, War, and Economic Development
Political Geography:
Asia, Yemen, and West Asia

243. How to Think About Postwar Asia: Demobilization in the Former Japanese Empire

Author:
Victor Louzon
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Weatherhead East Asian Institute, Columbia University
Abstract:
Victor Louzon, the 2016-18 International Network to Expand Regional and Collaborative Teaching (INTERACT) Postdoctoral Scholar at the Weatherhead East Asian Institute, provides educators and the public with ways of thinking and teaching about postwar Asia, particularly the end of the Japanese empire. Part 1. The Origins of the Cold War or the End of Empire? (0:19) Part 2. A Mobilized Empire (3:23) Part 3. The Challenges of Demobilization (6:14) Part 4. Demobilizing Minds (9:58)
Topic:
War, History, and Empire
Political Geography:
Japan and Asia

244. The Eastern Mediterranean New Dynamics and Opportunities for Cooperation

Author:
Nimrod Goren, Panayotis Tsakonas, Gabriel Mitchell, Muriel Asseburg, Valeria Talbot, and Ron Adam
Publication Date:
04-2018
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Mitvim: The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies
Abstract:
The Eastern Mediterranean - New Dynamics and Opportunities for Cooperation: Presentation of the final results of an international working group led by the Mitvim Institute in the framework of the EuroMeSCo Network’s ENI Project. Opening Remarks and Chair: Dr. Nimrod Goren, Head, Mitvim - The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies; Collective Security Schemes in the Eastern Mediterranean: Prof. Panayotis Tsakonas, Professor of International Relations, University of the Aegean; Research Associate, Hellenic Foundation for European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP); Regional Implications of Gas Findings in the Eastern Mediterranean: Mr. Gabriel Mitchell, Policy Fellow, Mitvim - The Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies; The War in Syria and its Effect on the Eastern Mediterranean: Dr. Muriel Asseburg, Senior Fellow, German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP); Ms. Valeria Talbot, Co-Head, Middle East and North Africa Centre, Italian Institute for International Political Studies (ISPI); Amb. Ron Adam, Special Envoy on Energy, Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Topic:
International Relations, Security, Foreign Policy, Regional Cooperation, War, Gas, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East, Israel, Palestine, Syria, and Mediterranean

245. Nationalism and development in Asia

Author:
Prasenjit Duara
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
United Nations University
Abstract:
This paper identifies historic patterns in the dialectic between nationalism and development across various East, South, and Southeast Asian nations. Nationalism as the rationale for development is used by regimes to achieve high levels of growth, but also generates exclusivism and hostilities, often in order to integrate a political core. Popular nationalism has also dialectically reshaped the goals and patterns of development during the post-Second World War period. The region is divided into zones shaped by twentieth-century historical and geo-political conditions. Colonial and Cold War conditions were as important as internal political and ethnic circumstances. Turning points in the dialectical relationship were common within a region. More recently, a common transregional pattern has emerged with neoliberal globalization being accompanied by exclusivist nationalism.
Topic:
Development, Nationalism, War, History, and Colonialism
Political Geography:
Asia

246. Is Terrorism Becoming an Effective Strategy to Achieve Political Aims?

Author:
Nihat Ali Özcan
Publication Date:
07-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
Terrorism is the method of changing policies of decision-makers and behaviors of the wider society by instigating fear through violent acts. Terrorism can be categorized based on several criteria, such as political aim, timing, context and the target of the violent acts, as well as tools and tactics. Although terrorism might sometimes show aspects similar to other types of conflict, such as guerilla warfare, urban warfare, irregular warfare, civil war, and insurgency, it is different from them by its reliance on shock in instigating change. Nevertheless, since 9/11 the nature of terrorism has itself changed to some extent. Rather than focusing on symbolic power, the emphasis for terrorist organizations has shifted from the action’s symbolic meaning to more calculable consequences, like the territory gained, weapons accrued, the financial damage inflicted and most commonly the number of the dead and the injured. In the future, we may also see shift towards more knowledge-intense strategies as both terrorists and states adapt to current age of knowledge.
Topic:
Terrorism, War, Drones, Islamic State, Separatism, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Global Focus

247. When Will The Next War Begin?

Author:
Yaakov Amidror
Publication Date:
02-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
It must be made clear to Israel’s rivals in both the north and the south that they will pay a very serious price for attacking Israel.
Topic:
Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Middle East and Israel

248. War’s Future: The Risks and Rewards of Grey-Zone Conflict and Hybrid Warfare

Author:
David Carment
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
Today’s geopolitical conflicts, especially among great powers, involve a desire to fundamentally revise the order of alliances as well as solidify new norms of conduct. The purpose of our paper is to delineate two distinct phenomena in international affairs – hybrid warfare, which emphasizes the tactical level and grey-zone conflicts, which incorporates a long-term strategic dimension into international disputes. We argue that hybrid warfare can be a tactical subset of grey-zone conflict deployed under certain conditions and in varying degrees. We examine four case studies: China’s application of ‘unrestricted warfare’, Russia’s strategy of ‘hybrid balancing’, ‘regional hybridism’ practiced by Israel and ‘restricted hybridism’ applied by Canada/NATO globally. We conclude that the solution to challenges from Russia and China is not a military one but a political and collective one based on baseline requirements for building resilience. Israel, on the other hand, is largely uninterested in the revision of order of alliances and will continue to utilize its tactical advantage vis-à-vis regional neighbors to achieve victories in short conflicts. We conclude that NATO (and Canada) should work more closely with the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe and the European Union to effectively extend security guarantees to its members. In doing so Canada and likeminded countries will involve the costs of engaging in hybrid warfare and the subsequent erosion of democratic accountability.
Topic:
NATO, War, Geopolitics, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Eurasia, Middle East, Canada, Israel, and Asia

249. Israel’s Secret War Against Iran Is Widening

Author:
Jonathan Spyer
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
Israel has fully joined the battle in Syria—but it’s not clear it can achieve any of its goals there.
Topic:
Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Israel Defense Forces (IDF)
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

250. Israel’s War With Iran is Inevitable

Author:
Efraim Inbar
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS)
Abstract:
In the absence of a clear American or Turkish determination to confront Iranian encroachment, only Israel has the power to stop it.
Topic:
Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, and Israel

251. Political Warfare by Russia

Author:
Kars de Bruijne(ed.)
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:
The Global Security Pulse tracks emerging security trends and risks worldwide. This month the Global Security Pulse focuses on the subject of political warfare. It specifically assesses how it plays a role in the foreign relations of Russia
Topic:
International Relations and War
Political Geography:
Russia

252. Procopius of Caesareea’s “History of Wars” and the Expression of Emotions in Early Byzantium

Author:
Ecaterina Lung
Publication Date:
08-2018
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Hiperboreea
Institution:
Balkan History Association
Abstract:
The representation of emotions in Early Byzantine historical texts is still a field rich in potential for further investigations and interpretations. In this article, we aim to approach just a small section of this, looking at how some specific emotions: fear, love, anger, sorrow and joy, and their particular expressions, appear in Procopius' History of Wars. We look particularly at manifestations of emotions depicted in military and political contexts and ask how and why these fitted with societal norms and expectations, what were the gender specificities, real or imagined, of expressing emotions.
Topic:
War and History
Political Geography:
Turkey, Eastern Europe, Greece, and Rome

253. The Dual-System Problem in Complex Conflicts

Author:
Robert D. Lamb and Melissa R. Gregg
Publication Date:
09-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
Conflict and fragile environments are increasingly complex and unpredictable, but the U.S. policy system itself is much more complex and unpredictable than most leaders appreciate. In this monograph, the authors argue that until we get a grasp on this “dual-system problem,” the United States will fall further and further behind in its strategic ambitions.
Topic:
Defense Policy, War, Military Strategy, Conflict, and Society
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

254. Silent Partners: Organized Crime, Irregular Groups, and Nation-States

Author:
Shima D. Keene
Publication Date:
10-2018
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
The Strategic Studies Institute of the U.S. Army War College
Abstract:
The U.S. Army increasingly faces adversaries that are difficult to define. The threat landscape is further complicated by the silent partnership between criminal organizations, irregular groups, and nation-states. This collaboration, whatever its exact nature, is problematic, because it confounds understanding of the adversary, making existing countermeasures less effective, and thus directly challenging U.S. national security interests. Military action taken without full appreciation of the dynamics of the nature of these relationships is likely to be ineffective at best or suffer unintended consequences. This monograph provides a comprehensive assessment of the threat to U.S. national security interests posed by the silent partners, as well as how the vulnerabilities of the relationships could be exploited to the advantage of the U.S. Army.
Topic:
Security, National Security, War, Military Strategy, Non State Actors, Organized Crime, Non-Traditional Threats, Society, and Nation Building
Political Geography:
North America and United States of America

255. Iraqi security forces and popular mobilization forces

Author:
Jessa Rose Dury-Agri, Omer Kassim, and Patrick Martin
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
The liberation of the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sh­am’s (ISIS) urban holdings in Iraq was necessary but not sufficient to secure America’s vital national interests. ISIS has lost neither the will nor the capability to fight, even as it withdraws into desert hideouts and sleeper cell formations in November 2017. Rather, dispersed ISIS militants have begun an insurgent campaign in northern and western Iraq as some of its foreign fighters have returned to their home countries to serve in ISIS’s external operations network.
Topic:
Islam, War, and International Security
Political Geography:
Iraq and Middle East

256. Afghanistan Order of Battle

Author:
Morgan Wesley
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
The Afghanistan ORBAT (PDF) describes the location and area of responsibility of all American units in Afghanistan, down to the battalion level, updated as of February 2016..
Topic:
International Relations and War
Political Geography:
Afghanistan

257. Coming Home? A Political Settlement in Syria Must Focus on Refugees

Author:
Maha Yahya and Jean Kassir
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Abstract:
A sustainable political settlement to end the multiple conflicts in Syria will not be possible without a real focus on the challenges of refugee returns. The complexities of the Syrian wars as well as previous international experiences with similar conflicts underscore that ensuring long-term peace requires a more focused attention on the challenges for effective repatriation of refugees and internally displaced persons, including significant security and protection guarantees. Without these, and irrespective of the eventual shape of a political solution, their return may be neither possible nor sustainable—with significant repercussions for peace in Syria, neighboring countries, and states beyond.
Topic:
War, International Security, and Refugee Crisis
Political Geography:
Syria

258. he Economic forces of victory versus those of defeat: The case of the Greek-Turkish war (1919-1922).

Author:
Ioannis Salavrakos
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
The intellectual aspiration of the paper is to cast light on one of the most neglected conflicts in history, that of the Greek-Turkish war of 1919-1922. The paper analyses the Greek defeat pointing out that it was the outcome of the following factors: 1) economic factors, 2) tactical errors at the war theatre, 3) inability to have the support of Great Powers. The paper also highlights the Turkish strengths as opposed to Greek weaknesses
Topic:
Diplomacy, War, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Europe, Turkey, Greece, Asia, and Mediterranean

259. A Sociology of the Drone

Author:
Ina Wiesner
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Military and Strategic Studies
Institution:
Centre for Military, Security and Strategic Studies
Abstract:
Current discourses in science and public about combat drones usually employ arguments from the spheres of technology, strategy, international law and ethics. So far, sociologists have remained silent on this topic. But sociological analyses about the influencing factors of development and employment of combat drones could enrich the debate as well as studies about the effects of combat drone missions on individuals, organisations and societies. This article offers a comprehensive discussion of the sociological aspects of combat drones. A sociological view is not only indicated against the background of the present practice of targeted killings but also because drones appear as an intermediate step towards autonomous offensive combat systems which will change the type of warfare in the future.
Topic:
War, Military Strategy, Sociology, and Drones
Political Geography:
Global Focus

260. A Delicate Balancing Act: Russia, Turkey, and the Kurds

Author:
Pietro A. Shakarian
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Rethinking Russia
Abstract:
Russia and Turkey have been improving their relationship since June 2016, the Kurdish question presents a potential challenge to their attempts to strengthen their ties. Reconciling Kurdish aspirations with Turkish fears will be a top priority for Moscow in its effort to broker a post-war peace in Syria.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, Syrian War, and Kurds
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, Turkey, and Middle East

261. January 2017 Issue

Author:
Don Rassler, Emily Corner, Paul Gill, Michael Horton, Jason Warner, and Paul Cruickshank
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
CTC Sentinel
Institution:
The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
Abstract:
The deadly attack at Fort Lauderdale airport earlier this month by an individual claiming to have been influenced by voices he heard and to have acted on behalf of the Islamic State has renewed attention on the nexus between terrorism and mental health. In our cover article, Emily Corner and Paul Gill explore what they argue are complex and often misunderstood links. Their preliminary findings show that the proportion of attackers in the West possibly influenced by the Islamic State with a history of psychological instability is about the same as the rate of such instability in the general population, though the rate is higher than in the general population if Islamic State-directed attacks are excluded. This is in line with their previous findings that group-based terrorists are much less likely to have mental disorders than lone-actor terrorists. They also question the degree to which lone-actor terrorists with mental disorders are symptomatic at the time of attacks. Lone-actor terrorists with mental disorders, they have found, are just as likely to engage in rational planning prior to attacks as those without. Their research has also found a significantly higher rate of schizophrenia among lone-actor terrorists than in the general population. There is a long-running debate about whether this condition could make individuals of all ideological persuasions less inhibited in moving from radical thought to radical action. In a joint interview, Peter Edge, Acting Deputy Director of U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement, and Wil van Gemert, Deputy Director of Europol, focus on the challenges of identifying, tracking, and interdicting foreign terrorist fighters and steps being taken to deepen transatlantic cooperation. Michael Horton argues that AQAP’s deepening ties to anti-Houthi forces in Yemen’s civil war is making the terrorist group even more resilient and difficult to combat. Don Rassler examines the contest between the United States and jihadis on drones and drone countermeasures. Jason Warner looks at the three newly self-declared affiliates of the Islamic State in sub-Saharan Africa.
Topic:
Terrorism, War, Al Qaeda, Drones, Islamic State, and Jihad
Political Geography:
Africa, Middle East, Arabian Peninsula, and United States of America

262. Belarus-West Relations: The New Normal

Author:
Dzianis Melyantsou
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center for Transatlantic Relations
Abstract:
This paper is part of CTR's Working Paper Series: "Eastern Voices: Europe's East Faces an Unsettled West." The new geopolitical environment formed after the annexation of Crimea and the war in the Donbas, together with emerging threats and challenges, are pressing both Belarus and the West to revise their policies in the region as well as their relations with each other. In this new context, Belarus is seeking a more balanced foreign policy and, at least towards the Ukrainian crisis, a more neutral stance.
Topic:
International Relations, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, War, Territorial Disputes, Foreign Aid, Sanctions, and Geopolitics
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Belarus, Crimea, United States of America, and European Union

263. Etre cachemiri à New Delhi. L’expérience du nationalisme à distance (Being a Kashmiri in Delhi. Experiencing Long-distance Nationalism)

Author:
Charlotte Thomas
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Armed combatant and leader of the Hizbul Mujahideen Burhan Wani was killed by the Indian Army in July 2016. This killing triggered a new phase of insurgency in Kashmir. In the Valley, the local populace started mobilizing against the Indian State in the name of azadi, (freedom). In such volatile context, the production of the national sentiment of the Kashmiris is documented from a distanciated perspective. Frontiers of the national group are explored from New Delhi, as well as the logics of differentiation and otherification of the Kashmiri group towards the Indian one. Kashmiri nationalism therefore more clearly appears in a negative definition (what a Kashmiri is not) than in a positive definition (what a Kashmiri is). The slight and incremental slip of the meaning of azadi demands is at the heart of Kashmiri nationalism. From an original demand for greater autonomy within the Indian Republic, demands of azadi now refer to the independence of the Valley – yet there are nuances that will be studied. They also convey an utter rejection of “Indianess” whether national or citizen. In that respect, New Delhi’s negating the political aspect of the mobilizations that are taking place in the Kashmir Valley has dramatically fuelled the national sentiment of the Kashmiris. The current insurgency that started in July 2016 has sped up the pace of the process. Despite the escalating tensions in the Valley, New Delhi keeps refusing to consider the political dimension of the local social movements, be they violent or peaceful. That is the reason why, beyond Kashmir and Kashmiris themselves, studying the political demands of the Kashmiri population does shed a light on the functioning of the Indian nation and the Indian state.
Topic:
Human Rights, Sovereignty, Terrorism, War, Territorial Disputes, Sociology, Material Culture, Political Science, Regional Integration, and Borders
Political Geography:
South Asia and India

264. Regards sur l’Eurasie - L’année politique 2016

Author:
Anne De Tinguy, Bayram Balci, François Dauceé, Laure Delcour, Tatiana Kastouéva-Jean, Aude Merlin, Xavier Richet, Kathy Rousselet, and Julien Vercueil
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Internationales
Abstract:
Looking into Eurasia : the year in politics provides some keys to understand the events and phenomena that have left their imprint on a region that has undergone major mutation since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991: the post-soviet space. With a cross-cutting approach that is no way claims to be exhaustive, this study seeks to identify the key drivers, the regional dynamics and the underlying issues at stake
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, Corruption, Crime, Democratization, Economics, International Trade and Finance, Politics, Sovereignty, War, International Security, Regional Integration, and State
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Caucasus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Belarus, and European Union

265. Image of USA in Urban Pakistan: An Empirical Assessment

Author:
Muhammad Asif and Ayaz Muhammad
Publication Date:
07-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
Image plays an important role while devising a country‘s foreign policy. Therefore, all the nations whether small or big try to portray their positive images for the achievement of desired goals. USA, a dominant political actor in world politics is facing an image problem throughout the globe. Pakistan‘s alliance with the USA during and after the Cold War makes it an ideal nation to evaluate the image of USA. This empirical study designed to investigate the factors affecting, molding and promoting the positive or negative images of USA in Pakistan. Five urban centers selected to evaluate the US image including four provincial capitals namely Karachi, Lahore, Peshawar, Quetta and the federal capital Islamabad. Survey method used to collect and analyze the data. The image of USA evaluated in five selected areas: violation of Pakistan‘s sovereignty, US policies towards Muslim world, US policies in Afghanistan, mounting Indo-US relations, and US aid to Pakistan. Results of the study show that the factor where the image of USA was extremely negative is violation of Pakistan‘s sovereignty. US policies towards Muslim world, the issue of Afghanistan and rising strategic ties with India especially after the end of cold war are not welcomed by the Pakistani masses and viewed the American image as negative but with less intensity as compared to the factor of violation of Pakistan‘s sovereignty. Public supported the US aid program to Pakistan and viewed it as supportive for country‘s frail and flimsy economy.
Topic:
War, Bilateral Relations, Foreign Aid, Military Affairs, Military Intervention, and 9/11
Political Geography:
Pakistan, Afghanistan, South Asia, Punjab, and United States of America

266. Americans are morally responsible for America’s war on Yemen a series on Yemen, part 1

Author:
Shireen Al-Adeim
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This is the first of a three-part series of essays on Yemen highlighting the magnitude and impact of the civil war on Yemenis. Yemen continues to suffer in silence as the world turns away from its ongoing misery. Despite over two and a half years of war, the average American seems oblivious to the United States’ role in fueling the conflict in Yemen. While wealthy Arab states like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates bombard the Middle East’s poorest country, pushing the country toward famine and an unprecedented cholera outbreak, the US government (beginning with the Obama administration and continuing with Trump) has continued to fully support the Saudi-led coalition through the sale of weapons, mid-air refueling, targeting intelligence, and other logistical support.
Topic:
International Relations, Government, War, and Military Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and United States of America

267. The US-Saudi coalition’s impact on Yemen’s health – a series on Yemen, part 2

Author:
Shireen Al-Adeim
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This is the second of a three-part series of essays on Yemen highlighting the magnitude and impact of the civil war on Yemenis. Starting in March 2015, Saudi Arabia led a coalition of several Arab countries in bombing Yemen, its neighbor to the south. The coalition’s indiscriminate bombing has targeted countless homes, schools, markets, and even hospitals. Yemenis have become accustomed to double-tap and triple-tap strikes that target rescuers after an attack. One notable case was a double-tap strike that killed at least 140 mourners at a large funeral home in Sana’a, Yemen’s capital. The number of deaths resulting from US/Saudi airstrikes and fighting between Saudi-allied and Saleh/Houthi-allied forces has been conservatively estimated at 10,000 deaths and 40,000 injuries. The hidden costs of war, however, are much greater.
Topic:
Health, Poverty, War, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, North America, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

268. Yemen: drained, uncertain, and ignored – a series on Yemen, part 3

Author:
Mohamed Saleh
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
This is the third of a three-part series of essays on Yemen highlighting the magnitude and impact of the civil war on Yemenis. Yemen is located on the southern edge of the Arabian peninsula, with the Red Sea and Egypt to its west, the Gulf of Aden and the Horn of Africa to its south, Oman on its northeastern border, and Saudi Arabia along its northern border. Once benign representations of Yemen’s geography and sovereignty, those borders now symbolize nothing but profound anguish. The edges outlining a nation whose people remain imprisoned while waiting for life-saving aid which may not come. What at one point was a country grappling with the contradictions of 21st century development and economic growth has been bombed so viciously and blockaded so resolutely that close to a million of its inhabitants may die from a disease easily cured by oral rehydration therapy – a medical expression for treatment by purified water and modest amounts of sugar, salt, and zinc supplements. Condiments and a few bottles from a local pharmacy in any European country, and water. That is all. And yet the international community continues to watch in horror, its reaction anemic, its response stunted.
Topic:
Civil War, War, Arab Spring, Humanitarian Intervention, and International Community
Political Geography:
Iran, Middle East, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, United States of America, and Gulf Nations

269. To Assad and his admirers, Trump offers ‘hope and change’

Author:
Mahdi Dakhlallah, Imad Salim, Tahseen al-Halabi, and Bashar al-Assad
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Harvard Journal of Middle Eastern Politics and Policy
Institution:
The John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University
Abstract:
During the presidential campaign, Trump said he “[doesn’t] like Assad at all” and described the Syrian leader as “a bad guy.” But he compared Assad favorably to the alternatives. “Assad is killing ISIS,” Trump stated, whereas “we don’t even know who they [the rebels] are.” Trump even claimed Assad to be “much tougher and much smarter” than political rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Unsurprisingly, Assad and his admirers took heart in Trump’s surprise victory last November, with an adviser to the Syrian president saying the American people had “sent a great, a very important message to the world.” Yet Assad supporters – as well as the Syrian president himself – are taking a cautious approach to the new US administration, unsure of whether, and to what extent, Trump will overhaul American foreign policy. Here’s what columnists in pro-Assad media outlets think about Trump’s implications for Syria, followed by excerpts from two interviews with Assad about the new US president.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, Elections, News Analysis, Trump, and Syrian War
Political Geography:
Middle East, Syria, North America, and United States of America

270. Reflecting on Vietnam: A Young Diplomat goes to War

Author:
Allen Keiswetter
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
I knew Vietnam would be my first tour when I joined the US Foreign Service fifty years ago this coming June at age 23. I served there for 18 months (April 1968 to October 1969) as part of Civilian Operations for Revolutionary Development Support. Known as CORDS, it was a US civilian military organization assisting South Vietnamese pacification programs.I had an uneasy beginning; things both at home and in Vietnam seemed to be unravelling. The Tet offensive in early 1968 delayed my departure from Washington for two months. En route, I transited Honolulu where I saw LBJ on TV in the airport lounge announcing that he was not going to run for reelection. On arrival in Saigon, I learned that Martin Luther King had been assassinated and that rioting was rocking Washington D.C.
Topic:
Diplomacy, War, and Memoir
Political Geography:
South Asia, Vietnam, and United States of America

271. The Kurds in a Volatile Middle East

Author:
Ofra Bengio
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Research Paper
Institution:
The Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies (BESA)
Abstract:
The Kurds challenge the self-perceptions of the nation-states in which they reside: Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq; and they have played a crucial role in combatting Islamic State. This study analyzes the rivalry and interdependence among the four parts of Kurdistan as well as the dynamics of their relations with regional countries and the international community. With the entire region in a state of flux, will the Kurds fulfill their dream for a state or autonomous existence of their own?
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, War, Self Determination, Authoritarianism, and Democracy
Political Geography:
Middle East

272. Refugee Compacts: Addressing the Crisis of Protracted Displacement

Author:
Cindy Huang and Nazanin Ash
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for Global Development
Abstract:
The world is witnessing higher levels of displacement than ever before. The statistics tell the story. Today, an unprecedented 65 million people—including 21 million refugees—are displaced from their homes. Since the start of the Syrian crisis in 2011, 5 million people have fled to nearby Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan. And refugees now spend an average of 10 years away from their countries. Equally striking as the scale of the crisis are the consequences of an inadequate response. Individual lives hang in the balance; refugees are struggling to rebuild their lives, find jobs, and send their children to school. Developing countries that are hosting the overwhelming majority of refugees— and at the same time trying to meet the needs of their own citizens—are shouldering unsustainable costs. We are seeing global stability and hard-won development gains threatened.
Topic:
War, Refugee Issues, Territorial Disputes, and Refugee Crisis
Political Geography:
Global Focus

273. Syria Situation Report: May 1 - 10, 2017

Author:
Chris Kozak
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Russia, Iran, and Turkey agreed at a new set of Astana Talks on May 3 - 4 to establish four large “de-escalation” zones over opposition-held regions of Western Syria. The deal allows for the three countries to deploy forces along the borders of the “de-escalation zones” to monitor a faltering nationwide ceasefire that excludes all opposition forces “associated” with Al-Qaeda and ISIS in Syria. Activists reported a general decrease in violence except along key frontlines such as Damascus and Northern Hama Province after the deal went into effect on May 6. Russia likely intends to leverage to “de-escalation zones” to subordinate the political process to its objectives, reset its military deployments, and block future unilateral action to implement so-called “zones of stabilization” by the U.S. in Syria. Pro-regime forces will likely also use the relative lull in Western Syria to refocus their military campaign towards Eastern Syria to preempt the U.S. from establishing a long-term foothold in regions formerly held by ISIS in Syria. Conditions on the ground remain unfit for a durable ceasefire or political settlement to end the Syrian Civil War. The U.S. signaled its intent to move forward with an imminent offensive to seize Ar-Raqqa City from ISIS that includes the Syrian Kurdish YPG despite clear objections from Turkey. U.S. President Donald Trump signed an order on May 8 authorizing the U.S. Department of Defense to directly provide weapons, ammunition, and other equipment to the YPG “as necessary” in support of upcoming operations against ISIS in Ar-Raqqa City. Pentagon Spokesperson Dana White stated that the weapons deliveries will be “limited, mission specific, and metered out incrementally” in order to prevent the transfer of weapons to the PKK in Turkey. The U.S. also floated plans to expand an intelligence fusion center based in Ankara targeting the PKK in Turkey. These efforts remain insufficient to address the security concerns of Turkey. The decision will likely fuel a further breakdown in relations between Turkey and the U.S. that could include new cross-border operations by Turkey against the YPG in Northern Syria. This strategic break will form a core area of disagreement during a face-to-face meeting between Trump and Turkish President Recep Erdogan in Washington D.C. on May 16.
Topic:
Ethnic Conflict and War
Political Geography:
Syria

274. Russia’s Active Campaign in Ukraine

Author:
Benjamin Knudsen, Alexandra Lariiciuc, and Franklin Holcomb
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Russia has continued its destabilization campaign in Ukraine using its proxy forces and other means of subversion. The Trump Administration has indicated it is willing to support Ukraine as the Eastern European country faces Russian aggression. President Trump must act to strengthen the U.S.-Ukraine partnership and increase pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin as part of a broader campaign to deter Russian aggression globally. U.S. officials emphasized their support for Ukraine in a series of diplomatic meetings in May. U.S. President Donald Trump held separate meetings with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Pavlo Klimkin in Washington on May 10 during which he reportedly stressed “Russia’s responsibility to fully implement the Minsk agreements.” This rhetoric echoes previous statements by Trump administration officials. U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said the U.S. will maintain sanctions against Russia “until Moscow reverses the actions that triggered them.”
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Russia and Ukraine

275. The Campaign for Mosul: April 29-May 11, 2017

Author:
Patrick Martin
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) surged in northwest Mosul in a bid to clear the city prior to Ramadan, anticipated to begin on May 26. Emergency Response Division (ERD) and Federal Police (FP) units joined 9th and 15th Iraqi Army Division units in northwest Mosul on April 28. The combined forces recaptured the neighborhoods of Mushairfa and 30 Tamouz, and are fighting to seize the denser neighborhoods of Harmat, 17 Tamouz, and Hawi Kanisa as of publication. Meanwhile, Counter-Terrorism Services (CTS) recaptured three neighborhoods in western Mosul. ISF are unlikely to clear the city prior to Ramadan. ISIS claimed to launch attacks to retake two Old City gates, Bab al-Jadid and Bab al-Toub. ISIS will also continue to defend the Old City by conducting suicide attacks and attempting to draw fire on civilian gatherings. ISIS will concentrate its defenses around al-Nuri Great Mosque, where ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi appeared publicly in 2014.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Middle East

276. ISIS Sanctuary

Author:
Alexandra Gutowski and Jesse Rose Dury-Agri
Publication Date:
05-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
U.S.-backed forces continue to advance on the major ISIS-held urban centers of Mosul, Iraq and Raqqa, Syria. Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) have encircled ISIS in Mosul’s Old City. The U.S.-backed, Kurdish-dominated Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) captured Tabqa, a city adjacent to Raqqa that contains Syria’s largest dam. ISIS also lost terrain in southern Syria, as various factions of the Syrian opposition, including some with U.S. backing, cleared ISIS from positions in Suweida and the Qalamoun mountains. ISIS will attempt to offset these losses during its annual Ramadan offensive campaign, anticipated to begin around May 27. ISIS’s campaign in 2017 increasingly resembles its 2013 insurgent campaign; ISIS’s Ramadan plan will likely focus on synchronizing spectacular attacks across different locations for combined effect. Potential targets include religious sites, security forces, and oil infrastructure. ISIS may also conduct ground attacks in Salah ad Din, Anbar, and central Syria where ISIS retains latent combat capability.
Topic:
War and ISIS
Political Geography:
Middle East

277. Russia’s Unrelenting Attacks On Syrian Civilians

Author:
Genevieve Casagrande
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Russia’s campaign against Syrian civilians continued undeterred by the U.S. strike on April 6 in response to the Bashar al-Assad regime’s use of chemical weapons in southern Idlib. Local reports indicate Russia regularly used incendiary munitions and bunker buster munitions in Idlib and Aleppo Provinces in order to inflict mass casualties on the population in rebel-held terrain following the U.S. strike. Russian airstrikes also targeted local civilian infrastructure from April 4 - 25, including hospitals, schools, mosques, and civil defense centers across Syria. Russia continually targeted Khan Shaykhoun, the site of the regime’s chemical attack on April 4, throughout the reporting period. Furthermore, activists claimed Russia targeted a hospital and civil defense center treating those wounded in Khan Shaykhoun immediately following the regime’s sarin gas attack. The use of chemical weapons is just one of many means the pro-regime coalition has to punish anti-Assad populations in Syria. Russia remains a principal contributor to President Assad’s purposeful campaign to target Syrian civilians. The Assad regime has a long history of violence against its own people, but the advanced capabilities Russia has brought to theater have allowed the pro-regime coalition to target civilians with even greater precision.
Topic:
Human Rights and War
Political Geography:
Russia and Syria

278. Iraq Situation Report

Author:
Patrick Martin
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
ISIS is waging a renewed offensive campaign in recaptured areas that could exploit vulnerabilities in the Iraqi Government’s ability to respond amidst accelerating political competition before upcoming elections.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Iraq

279. Russia and Iranian Basing In Syria

Author:
Chris Kozak, Genevieve Casagrande, and Tom Ramage
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
Pro-regime basing data accurate through March 21, 2017. Syria Control of Terrain data accurate through April 3, 2017.
Topic:
War
Political Geography:
Middle East

280. ISW Analysts React to the U.S.’s Anti-Assad Strike in Syria

Author:
Institute for the Study Of War
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Institute for the Study of War
Abstract:
“There can be no future for Assad and his regime in Syria. It is good that the Trump Administration has recognized that the regime must go in order for negotiated settlement to occur. Demonstrating American will to use military force is a necessary first step. President Trump still needs a larger strategy to achieve the outcomes that US national security and humanity require.” - Jennifer Cafarella
Topic:
War and Developments
Political Geography:
Global Focus

281. United States Policy on Regime Change in Iran

Author:
Ephraim Kam and Zaki Shalom
Publication Date:
08-2017
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Abstract:
Senior officials within the Iranian regime have long been convinced that American administrations have striven to infiltrate Iran’s internal system and topple the Islamic regime, and this impression has been bolstered of late. For its part, even if the Trump administration has not presented a defined position on regime change in Iran, it undoubtedly has a clear interest in this regard. Yet the US administration has no concrete ability to bring about regime change in Iran in the desired direction – not by supporting internal opposition forces, and certainly not through military intervention. If the Iranian regime does change in the future, it will presumably result from internal processes and not external intervention.
Topic:
War, International Security, and International Affairs
Political Geography:
America and Iran

282. War by Other Means

Author:
Max Bergmann and Carolyn Kenney
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Center for American Progress - CAP
Abstract:
Liberal democracies across the globe are under attack. They are being attacked not by traditional weapons of war but by disinformation—intentionally false or misleading information designed to deceive targeted audiences. While these attacks may not pose a threat to the physical safety of democratic citizens, they do pose a threat to democracy. In modern democratic societies, credible information is critical to the economy, political system, and way of life that citizens have come to expect. When citizens of democracies do not trust information, the forums for discussing politics and debating policy are compromised. If the media in a democracy is viewed as biased or, worse, as aligned with special interests, the bedrock of the democratic system—its ability to resolve differences through debate, persuasion, and compromise—breaks down. A democratic society can withstand deep disagreements, but if its citizens cannot agree on some basic and fundamental facts, that democracy will struggle to function.
Topic:
War, Cybersecurity, Conflict, and Disinformation
Political Geography:
Russia and Europe

283. The Global Exchange (Spring 2017)

Author:
David J. Bercuson, Randolph Mank, Sarah Goldfeder, Mike Day, David Perry, Peter Jones, David Carment, Milana V. Nikolko, Brett Boudreau, Rolf Holmboe, Darren Schemmer, Andrew Griffith, and Robert Vineberg
Publication Date:
03-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
The Global Exchange
Institution:
Canadian Global Affairs Institute (CGAI)
Abstract:
The Global Exchange is the Canadian Global Affairs Institute’s quarterly magazine featuring topical articles written by our fellows and other contributing experts. Each issue contains approximately a dozen articles exploring political and strategic challenges in international affairs and Canadian foreign and defence policy. This Spring 2017 issue includes articles on trade, defense policy, elections and more.
Topic:
Defense Policy, War, Bilateral Relations, Budget, Elections, Democracy, Negotiation, Peace, and Trade
Political Geography:
Russia, Ukraine, Canada, Syria, North America, United States of America, and Gambia

284. Wartime Economies in the Middle East A Look into Libya, Syria and Iraq

Author:
Tim Eaton, Lina Khatib, Renad Mansour, and Paul Salem
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Middle East Institute (MEI)
Abstract:
The Middle East Institute (MEI) hosted Chatham House experts Tim Eaton, Lina Khatib, and Renad Mansour for a discussion on the collapse of central authority and its economic impacts across states in the Middle East and North Africa. MEI senior vice president for policy analysis, research, and programs Paul Salem moderated. The panel explored the development of the war economies of Syria, Libya, and Iraq, examined the commonalities and differences in the three cases, and discussed the challenges of combating the economic power of armed insurgents.
Topic:
War, Non State Actors, Economy, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Iraq, Middle East, Libya, and Syria

285. Hybrid Warfare

Author:
Sandro Knezović and Nani Klepo
Publication Date:
02-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Institute for Development and International Relations (IRMO)
Abstract:
Contemporary international relations are carrying a wide range of challenges that have led to the necessity to rede�ine existing national and international strategies grounded predominantly on conventional state-based threats. Recognising vulnerability to non-conventional challenges, contemporary strategies are increasingly acknowledging the importance of the changing character of warfare. Namely, not only have the non-conventional threats become increasingly perilous, but the overlapping of different classes of threats have dramatically increased the complexity of existing challenges. This leads to a conclusion that future con�licts are very likely to be multidimensional, with blurring and combined forms of combat characterised by expanding dynamics and growing destructiveness, frequently called hybrid. Due to the fact that it includes a wide range of fairly unconsolidated categories, the term itself had received a signi�icant amount of criticism related to an alleged lack of conceptual clarity. Still, while the mainstream transatlantic security policy elites largely operate in traditional terms and only modestly use the contemporary framework of strategic thinking, the challenges and increasingly assertive opponents are following a different path.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, War, and Military Strategy
Political Geography:
Global Focus

286. Disrupted: The Feminist Foreign Policy Issue

Author:
Marissa Conway
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy
Abstract:
It seems wonderfully fitting that we're celebrating the Centre for Feminist Foreign Policy's one year anniversary with the launch of Disrupted, focusing this issue on none other than feminist foreign policy itself. At CFFP, our endgame is the adoption of feminist foreign policy worldwide as we believe it to be one of the best solutions to combat the elitest, inequitable, and harmful foreign policies we see all too often. The aim of this journal is to highlight both established and emerging voices, and to seek to understand how the everyday actions of people - actions which might seem simply social or even private - are decidedly politically charged, and vice versa. We challenge assumptions about the unquestioned objectivity of policy - assumptions which miscalculate power structures and tend to leave an analysis of international politics lacking. We attempt to understand how the identities of both subjugated and the elite interact to reify systemic bias, and perhaps most importantly, we do not presume the authority to speak on behalf of anyone else. Ultimately, we see a feminist analysis of foreign policy not only as compelling, but as indispensable to achieve a more equal world. Thank you so much for supporting this publication. CFFP is a grassroots, volunteer run organization and we're proud to lead the way in making foreign policy more feminist, more transparent, and more intersectional. With your support we're amplifying a different and more nuanced conversation that can better inform policy decisions and begin to alleviate inequality at both a global and local level.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Climate Change, War, Feminism, and Young Adults
Political Geography:
Global Focus

287. Positionality in Embodied War Imaginaries: American Snipers

Author:
Benjamin Schrader
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Review of Human Rights
Institution:
Society of Social Science Academics (SSSA)
Abstract:
This paper maps the positionality of two soldiers embodied experiences as snipers for the US military. One, Chris Kyle who is labeled as “the most lethal sniper in US military history,” wrote a book uncritically glorifying his experiences, which was later turned into the Oscar nominated film American Sniper. His attempt to help veterans heal from PTSD by taking them shooting was a possible trigger that reignited the traumas of war, which can be traced to his eventual death. The other, Garett Reppenhagen, who was the first active duty member of the antiwar group Iraq Veterans Against the War, and currently works to help others heal from the traumas of war by getting them engaged in wilderness programs and environmental activism. Both stories expose a range of traumas of war, both within wartime and in peacetime, and we see the ways in which their narratives of war have different reflections of what it means to heal during times of peace. This paper juxtaposes these two stories, their war imaginaries, and how one works to reinforce the military dispositif, while the other works to impede it in favor of human rights.
Topic:
War, Armed Forces, Military Affairs, War on Terror, and Veterans
Political Geography:
United States of America

288. Missiles and Food: Yemen’s Man-Made Food Security Crisis

Author:
Larissa Alles
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Policy Brief
Institution:
Oxfam Publishing
Abstract:
The current high levels of food insecurity in Yemen and the threat of famine are the results of more than two-and-a-half years of war, and have added to the already high levels existing pre-war. The economic crisis and loss of livelihoods has left people without the means to purchase what is available in the market. The situation has been made dramatically worse by the closure of key entry points for commercial imports, which is also affecting the availability of fuel and clean water. This is a deadly combination, especially for the most vulnerable in society, including women and children. This briefing calls for action by all actors in the conflict and by the international community to protect the civilian population from the effects of the war and to alleviate the food crisis. It calls for renewed momentum towards a peace deal which is inclusive of women, civil society, youth and minorities, and which begins with an immediate, nationwide ceasefire.
Topic:
Gender Issues, War, Children, Food Security, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:
Middle East, Yemen, and Persian Gulf

289. The Logic of Historical Nihilism: Analyzing the PRC Orthodoxy on the Origins of the Korean War

Author:
Miles M. Yu
Publication Date:
06-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Project 2049 Institute
Abstract:
The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) utilizes its own narrative of the Korean War to fulfill the Party’s strategic interests. Historical evidence, illustrated in this paper, proves that the Korean War began on June 25, 1950 as a result of a long and arduous preparation and agreement among the three protagonists—Joseph Stalin, Mao Zedong, and Kim Il-sung. Today, significant research and historical documents prove the CCP’s creation of a false record of the Korean War, which remains integral to Maoist historical nihilism and employed by the Party to ensure regime survival. Following the 67th anniversary of the beginning of the Korean War, it is necessary to examine the Korean War’s historical legacy and the role of the manipulation of historical narratives in communist China.
Topic:
War, History, Political Parties, and Narrative
Political Geography:
China, Asia, South Korea, and North Korea

290. The Varying Roles of the Female Combatant

Author:
Melissa Rary
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Center on Human Rights Education, University of Denver
Abstract:
While the idea of women as combatants in the US military is relatively new, some stories of women in war goes back to Greek myths of armies of goddesses at war. Still, this subject gets very little, if any, press in the news. Women are often seen as victims of war, but some women may also be perpetrators. Beyond simply fighting on the ground, Dara Cohen explores the idea of women as perpetrators of wartime sexual violence. She points out that in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 41% of female sexual violence victims were victimized by females, as were 10% of male victims. She argues that within armed groups, women face many of the same pressures to commit similar forms of violence as their male counterparts. Women have been used historically in various roles during recruitment and combat, including being a nurse, cook, telephone operator, or journalist. Some conflicts have also seen a rise women used as a recruiting tool, or as wives, to young men joining forces. In the Second World War, the Soviet Union used female soldiers to encourage their male counterparts to join the forces. Of the 820,000 women who served in the Red Army, 15% of those were combatants. ISIS recruits young women in a similar way, promising them marriage to ISIS fighters and offering them a meaningful role in a big world. They are then used as mothers, wives, nurses, recruiters, and general supporters of ISIS.
Topic:
Gender Issues, War, Feminism, and Conflict
Political Geography:
Global Focus

291. Lack of Dissuasive Policy: the Case of Ifni-Sahara War / La ausencia de política disuasoria: el caso de la guerra de Ifni-Sáhara

Author:
Juan Pastrana Piñero
Publication Date:
12-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal on International Security Studies (RESI)
Institution:
International Security Studies Group (GESI) at the University of Granada
Abstract:
The lack of a dissuasive policy was one of the key factors that explains the outbreak of the last Spanish colonial war. This article analyses the contradictory policy of general Franco’s regime about its territories of the Africa Occidental Española. Especially, it deals with the absence of a credible dissuasive policy in contrast to the increasing menacing presence of the so-called Army of Liberation of the Sahara.
Topic:
War, History, Colonialism, and Deterrence
Political Geography:
France, North Africa, Morocco, and Sahara

292. Wartime Educational Loss and Attitudes toward Democratic Institutions

Author:
Shelley Liu
Publication Date:
10-2017
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Afrobarometer
Abstract:
How does civil war affect society and citizen interaction with politics? Civilians who live through warfare face numerous challenges that can have permanent effects on society even after peace is achieved. This project uses the Liberian civil wars as a case study to examine the impact of war through one channel – disruptions in education for an entire generation of children. The paper shows that negative effects of war on education and economic outcomes clash with citizen expectations for post-war democracy, leading to negative consequences for the democratization process. Specifically, educational deficiencies in this particular generation of young adults decrease job prospects, breeding resentment against the promises of democracy. This extends to the political sphere, such that those who lost out on educational opportunities due to war exhibit lower engagement, less desire to engage with democratic processes, and a greater rejection of democracy altogether.
Topic:
Civil Society, Civil War, Education, War, Children, and Youth
Political Geography:
Africa and Liberia

293. Untangling the Web: A Blueprint for Reforming American Security Sector Assistance

Author:
Rose Jackson
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
Open Society Foundations
Abstract:
Since the attacks of 9/11, the United States has spent more than $250 billion building up military and police forces around the world. From attempts to build whole armies in Iraq and Afghanistan to efforts to help Yemen or Nigeria fight terrorism, the impact of these efforts has been mixed and in some cases counterproductive, exacerbating local corruption, human rights abuses, and even terrorism. A knot of U.S. offices and agencies have evolved to provide this aid, mostly pulling in different directions. Untangling the Web: A Blueprint for Reforming American Security Sector Assistance describes the main failures in the system and sets out immediate steps the next administration can take to improve how the U.S. government plans, coordinates, and executes its security-related assistance. This would significantly increase transparency and accountability and link the aid more closely to the human rights, development, and governance outcomes that are essential to U.S. foreign policy interests and national security.
Topic:
International Relations, Foreign Policy, National Security, Terrorism, War, International Security, Military Affairs, Counter-terrorism, and Grand Strategy
Political Geography:
Middle East and Global Focus

294. War Powers and Unconstitutional Wars from Truman to the Present

Author:
Louis Fisher
Publication Date:
04-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:
The Center for the Study of Statesmanship at Catholic University hosted its first lecture on April 19, 2017, given by constitutional scholar Louis Fisher. Most recently Fisher has worked as a Senior Specialist in Separation of Powers at the Library of Congress, and lectured on the War Powers and unconstitutional wars.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
United States

295. America’s Double Government: The Hidden Agenda of the National Security State

Author:
Andrew J. Bacevich
Publication Date:
11-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, Catholic University
Abstract:
Which figures and organizations actually set the tone for American foreign policy? Do Congress and the executive still enjoy their constitutional powers, or has the authority of Madisonian institutions of government been eclipsed by the national security state? The Center for the Study of Statesmanship, in conjunction with the John Quincy Adams Society, hosted a panel discussion entitled “America’s Double Government: The Hidden Agenda of the National Security State” on November 29, 2017. This video is an edited highlight reel of that event. Featured scholars include: (1) Andrew Bacevich, a prominent author of several books on the American over-reliance on military intervention and professor emeritus of International Relations and History at Boston University and a Visiting Senior Fellow at CSS. (2) Michael Glennon, author of National Security and Double Government and professor of international law at Tufts University. (3) Louis Fisher, who has served as a Senior Specialist in Separation of Powers at the Library of Congress and is a Visiting Senior Fellow at CSS.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, National Security, and War
Political Geography:
United States and Middle East

296. The ad bellum Challenge of Drones: Recalibrating Permissible Use of Force

Author:
Alejandro Chehtman
Publication Date:
01-2017
Content Type:
Journal Article
Abstract:
Drones constitute an incremental advance in weapons systems. They are able to significantly reduce overall, as well as collateral, damage. These features seem to have important implications for the permissibility of resorting to military force. In short, drones would seem to expand the right to resort to military force compared to alternative weapons systems by making resorting to force proportionate in a wider set of circumstances. This line of reasoning has significant relevance in many contemporary conflicts. This article challenges this conclusion. It argues that resorting to military force through drones in contemporary asymmetrical conflicts would usually be disproportionate. The reason for this is twofold. First, under conditions of radical asymmetry, drones may not be discriminatory enough, and, thereby, collateral damage would still be disproportionate. Second, their perceived advantages in terms of greater discrimination are counteracted by the lesser chance of success in achieving the just cause for war. As a result, resorting to military force through drones in contemporary asymmetrical conflicts would generally be disproportionate not because of the harm they would expectedly cause but, rather, because of the limited harm they are ultimately able to prevent. On the basis of normative argument and empirical data, this article ultimately shows that we need to revise our understanding of proportionality not only at the level of moral argument but also in international law.
Topic:
International Law, War, Military Affairs, Weapons, and Drones
Political Geography:
Afghanistan, United States, and Europe

297. Compelling Priorities for Global Health

Author:
Tedros Adhanom, Lee C. Bollinger, Jeffrey D. Sachs, Elizabeth Cameron, Gavin Schmidt, and Wilmot James
Publication Date:
09-2017
Content Type:
Video
Institution:
Columbia University World Leaders Forum
Abstract:
A discussion featuring an address by Dr. Tedros Adhanom, Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO). The world today is trying to manage health risks associated with population growth, climate change, deforestation, institutional collapse, state failure, accidents, human error, war and terrorism. The full range of risks include infectious disease outbreaks, biological, chemical, radiological and nuclear spill-overs or attacks, multiple hazards, food insecurity, state fragility and cyber security failure or attacks. This is a breath-taking range of risks and no single institution can tackle it alone. It truly is humanity's common concern. As the UN agency responsible for global health, the World Health Organisation (WHO) is the organizational expression for humanity's common concern and we are honored to have the recently elected Director-General Dr. Tedros Adhanom address us on the priorities for his leadership. To discuss and debate with Dr. Tedros, we are delighted to have world leading experts in development, disease control and prevention and climate change and health dissect the opportunities and challenges in managing the health risks the world faces today. Welcoming remarks by Lee C. Bollinger, introduction by Jeffrey D. Sachs. Participants: Jeffrey D. Sachs, Elizabeth Cameron, and Gavin Schmidt. Moderator: Wilmot James
Topic:
Climate Change, Health, War, World Health Organization, Nuclear Power, and Food Security
Political Geography:
New York, Global Focus, and United States of America

298. The Case for a New Era of Person-to-Person Exchange

Author:
Alexa L. Wesner
Publication Date:
04-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
The Ambassadors Review
Abstract:
Since the end of the Second World War, the United States and Austria have enjoyed one of the most mutually beneficial and prosperous relationships in the world. Born from a shared desire for lasting peace and nourished by trade, education, and people-to-people exchanges, Austria and the United States share an intertwined past and interconnected future. Today, our shared democratic ideals and our willingness to work together to combat global threats serve as an example of collaboration on the world stage. But since the earliest days of the modern era, our common goals have been underwritten by a series of often-overlooked exchange programs that have exposed thousands of people to the significance of our shared values. The intimate human bonds built by exchange participants continue to weave an increasingly beautiful, intricate, and durable social fabric that strengthens our bilateral relationship.
Topic:
Politics, War, Bilateral Relations, and Global Security
Political Geography:
Austria and United States of America

299. No endgame in Syria: why truces are impracticable and peace negotiations challenging

Author:
Wolfgang Mühlberger
Publication Date:
10-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Abstract:
The September ceasefire in Syria expired after the scheduled duration of a week due to the bombardment of sensitive targets by the brokers – instead of being extended and shored up by a political track. Agreeing on the modalities without the ability or willingness to enforce them, makes ceasefires futile and undermines peace negotiations.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution and War
Political Geography:
Syria

300. Who are the Killers of Beni?

Author:
Jason Stearns
Publication Date:
03-2016
Content Type:
Working Paper
Institution:
Global Peace Operations Review
Abstract:
Since October 2014, the region around the town of Beni in north eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DR Congo) has been the site of some of the worst massacres in the country’s recent history. Over five hundred people have been killed and tens of thousands have fled their homes. The UN mission and the Congolese government have publicly stated that the massacres are the work of Ugandan rebels from the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF). Research by the Congo Research Group (CRG) based on interviews conducted with over a hundred witnesses and local leaders indicates that the definition of the ADF needs to be revised. Rather than a foreign Islamist group driven by revenge, our research points to a group that has forged strong ties with local interest groups and militias over the course of twenty years of insurrection around Beni. Moreover, our preliminary findings indicate that responsibility does not lie with the ADF alone. In addition to commanders directly tied to the ADF, members of the Forces armées de la République démocratique du Congo (FARDC), the national army; former members of the Rassemblement congolais pour la démocratie—Kisangani/Mouvement de libération (RCD– K/ML); as well as members of communal militias have also been involved in attacks on the civilian population.
Topic:
Conflict Resolution, United Nations, War, and Peacekeeping
Political Geography:
Democratic Republic of the Congo