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11. Europe’s Broken Order and the Prospect of a New Cold War

Author:
Kristi Raik and Eero Kristjan Sild
Publication Date:
10-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
The Russian and western visions of European security have profoundly different ideational roots: balance of power embedded in realist geopolitics versus liberal rules-based order. Russia is a revisionist power aiming to re-establish a European security order based on the balance of power, including a recognition of its empire and sphere of influence. Russia’s aggressive pursuit of this vision has forced the West to defend the rules-based liberal order in Europe and beyond. This report analyses the main sources and implications of Russia’s discontent with the post-Cold War European security order, which eventually led to the invasion of Ukraine. The disagreements are likely to endure beyond the war in Ukraine, leading to a new Cold War. The paper identifies three scenarios for the future of the European security order, the most likely one being a dual order, with the liberal rules-based order further strengthened and enlarged among western countries including Ukraine, while Russia will hold on to its imperialist ambitions but being forced to accept a much more limited sphere of influence than the former Soviet or tsarist empires. As long as the worldview that underlies Russia’s foreign policy does not change, any new balance of power will be temporary and under threat of renewed aggression once Russia has regained strength. In order to make it more sustainable, the West will need to eliminate grey zones, ensure credible deterrence and defence, and consistently weaken Russia’s ability to rebuild its military might.
Topic:
Security, NATO, Cold War, Authoritarianism, European Union, Democracy, Geopolitics, Deterrence, and Soviet Union
Political Geography:
Russia, China, Europe, Ukraine, North America, and United States of America

12. How Russia Brings Its Aggression Against Ukraine to The Global South

Author:
Ivan Ulises Klyszcz
Publication Date:
04-2023
Content Type:
Special Report
Institution:
International Centre for Defence and Security - ICDS
Abstract:
2022 was a wake-up call for the West. The response by the Global South to the war in Ukraine highlighted Russia’s enduring strengths in Africa, Latin America, the Middle East, and South and Southeast Asia. This report explores the evolution of Russia’s relations with the countries in the Global South and the ways Russia cultivates these relationships in pursuit of its foreign policy agenda. Moscow’s current interactions in the Global South are driven by the demands of its war of aggression, as well as by its long-term goal: to challenge the international order. The latter dictate several manoeuvres found throughout such engagements: strategic communications, market substitution and sanctions evasion, and regime sheltering. This report presents three case studies meant to illustrate how Russia’s relations with the Global South have evolved since 2022. First, Tunisia exemplifies a superficial partner, with Moscow’s main tool in the country being strategic communication aimed at shaping public opinion in its favour. Second, India is illustrative of a strategic partner whom Moscow tries to engage in order to substitute for lost energy markets and evade sanctions. Third, Myanmar represents a hierarchical relationship, in which the local regime depends on Moscow for diplomatic support and arms deliveries. Notwithstanding varied perspectives on and responses to Russia’s war of aggression in Ukraine, countries in the Global South have generally sought to prioritise their economy and security by attempting to strike a balance between Russia and the West. Aware of such desires, Moscow has been exploiting this situation to maintain its influence internationally. Challenging Russia in the Global South will put pressure on the Kremlin and limit its ability to conduct aggressive foreign policy – and wage war against Ukraine. The report concludes with six recommendations on how to counter Russia in the Global South.
Topic:
Cold War, Markets, Science and Technology, Communications, Arms Trade, Defense Industry, and Military
Political Geography:
Russia, Europe, Ukraine, Middle East, India, Asia, Tunisia, Myanmar, United States of America, and Global South

13. Cold War rivalry on Brazil’s and Argentina’snuclear programs: examining military and civilian intentions

Author:
André Luiz Cançado Motta and José Paulo Silva Ferreira
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Institution:
Conjuntura Austral: Journal of the Global South
Abstract:
The objective of this article is to investigate whether Cold War rivalry influenced the development of nuclear programs in Brazil and Argentina. The research employs a qualitative approach and bibliographic analysis of primary sources, including articles, books, and other relevant sources. The main hypothesis is to examine whether the culture of Cold War rivalry stimulated the development of nuclear programs in these countries, analysing the military and civilian intentions behind their nuclear technologies. While it is commonly reported that Latin America was under the influence of the United States (US) and the Soviet Union (USSR) during the Cold War, the cases of Brazil and Argentina show the opposite. Both countries adopted independent nuclear policies, seeking technological transfer through diversified and autonomous partnerships. Additionally, these divergent positions included arguments and actions regarding their respective nuclear policies. However, mutual distrust between Brazil and Argentina regarding the advancement and sophistication of their nuclear programs generated a dynamic similar to the Cold War in the Southern Cone region. This dynamic originated internally based on the logic of the two countries, despite the later creation of joint non-proliferation mechanisms.
Topic:
Cold War, Nuclear Weapons, Politics, History, Rivalry, Military, and Nuclearization
Political Geography:
Brazil, Argentina, and South America

14. Would You Say No to Shirley Temple on Thanksgiving?

Author:
Raymond F. Smith
Publication Date:
05-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
American Diplomacy
Institution:
American Diplomacy
Abstract:
During the Reagan presidency, “trust, but verify” became the operating principle for negotiations with the Soviet Union on strategic matters, particularly on arms control agreements. The administration’s guidance to those of us in the trenches remained as it had been for previous administrations of both parties. We were to continue to adhere to the principle of reciprocity. In the day-to-day business of managing relations with the Soviet Union, reciprocity essentially meant that if they cut us some slack, we would do the same. Generally, the Soviet Union did not cut us any slack, so we did our best not to cut them any. The top-down authoritarianism of the Soviet system gave them some inherent advantages on these matters, since they faced no pressures to relax the treatment accorded to our diplomats, whereas we frequently did. In the early 1980s, I oversaw the bilateral relations section of the State Department’s Soviet desk, responsible for managing the nitty-gritty of everyday relations. While serving in Moscow just a few years previously, I had been on the receiving end of Soviet “hospitality” toward American diplomats and was generally immovable on issues of reciprocity. Which brings us to Shirley Temple. Those of us of a certain age remember her as the irresistible tyke who tap-danced and sang her way into our hearts on the silver screen. Shirley Temple as a child, curtsey, right hand under chin, right foot forward As an adult, Shirley Temple Black developed an interest in international affairs and served as U.S. ambassador to Ghana, then later to Czechoslovakia. And now, on this chilly November day in Washington, my secretary informed me that she was on the phone and wanted to speak to me. She had, she told me, invited the Soviet consul general in San Francisco to her home in the hilly outskirts of the city for Thanksgiving. She believed that enabling him to experience this quintessential American holiday in a real American home would help him to develop a better understanding and appreciation of our way of life. He had replied that he would be delighted to come, but the State Department would not let him because her home was in an area that Soviet diplomats were not allowed to visit. (At this point, I quietly asked one of my staff to find out whether her home was in a closed area and learned shortly that, in fact, it was.) He had told her that unless she could persuade the State Department to grant him an exception to visit her home he would very regretfully have to decline her generous offer.
Topic:
Cold War, Diplomacy, International Affairs, and Memoir
Political Geography:
Soviet Union and United States of America

15. Cold War in Pakistan: Interdiscursivity in the Proleftist and Pro-Islamist Magazines

Author:
Ghulam Ghous
Publication Date:
01-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
This article examines the variations in the selected pro-leftist and pro-Islamist magazines’ discursive practices related to the Cold War era/politics in Pakistan. It adopts Critical Discourse Analysis as theoretical and methodololigical framework to delve into the discursive practices of the chosen periodicals. The discourses of the leftists and counterdiscourses of the Islamists highlight the ideological polarization as reflected in the in-group support and the out-group condemnation of certain viewpoints. These contrasting viewpoints coalesce around several issues and topics which were selected and used by chosen magazines to take part in the ideological conflict and challenge the rival ideologies in society. Some of the topics the selected magazines harp on are literature, culture, nationalism, Islam, socialism/communism, and democracy/capitalism. Using foregrounding and backgrounding in the topic selection of political magazines the researcher shows how nominated political magazines foregrounded and backgrounded reporting from the in-group and the out-group point of view and how they highlighted or hid reporting from the ingroup and the out-group. The study shows how these magazines used similar topics to advance their discussions in discourse and presented their ideas their standpoints during Cold War. They also utilized these topics to support and oppose certain ideas as the content of these periodicals is permeated with the ideologies which are glorified and used to renounce the alternative ideologies prevalent in discourse.
Topic:
Cold War, Leftist Politics, Political Islam, and Interdiscursivity
Political Geography:
Pakistan and South Asia

16. Strategic Competition between USA and China in Asia Pacific Region

Author:
Muhammad Soban Arif, Syeda Lubna Shah, and Muhammad Talha
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
South Asian Studies
Institution:
Department of Political Science, University of the Punjab
Abstract:
The USA is increasingly engaged in the Asia Pacific region to secure its interest in maintaining its status quo over the globe. As China becomes an economic giant within two decades and poses a threat to the hegemony of the USA, the USA is engaging with its partners and allies in the region. For this purpose, the USA initiated multiple alliances like AUKUS & QUAD shifted its perspective towards Asia, and Introduced an Asia-Pacific policy for containing China. In contrast to the USA, China is sucking the countries in its economic system to build infrastructure, ports, roads, and railways and by providing loans to developing countries by introducing projects like BRI, OBOR & BRICS. China is using the strategy of Sun Tzu by maneuvering opponents into such a place from which escape is impossible. Both countries are in Thucydides' trap from which escape is impossible. The USA & and China confronted each other through a Trade War. Now achieving geoeconomics interest is important in the contemporary century. The perspective of war on the battlefield shifted toward confronting geo-economic interests due to nuclear doctrine. According to realists, conflict is inevitable in human interactions.
Topic:
Cold War, Strategic Competition, Regional Politics, and Strategic Engagement
Political Geography:
China, Asia-Pacific, and United States of America

17. Tackling Russian Gray Zone Approaches in the Post-Cold War Era

Author:
Ryan Burkholder
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
To undermine U.S. military strength, state actors are increasingly operating in the ambiguous environment between peace and war known as the “gray zone.” These actions test U.S. response by exploiting the West’s rigid notion of conflict. Soviet actions toward the United States and other nations during the Cold War shared many similarities with contemporary Russian strategy. There is no current uniform definition of the gray zone, and the United States has not developed doctrine to address this challenge. Russia has adapted Soviet Cold War techniques for the digital and globalized age and effectively integrates instruments of power against the United States by targeting seams within culture, maintaining ambiguity, and controlling narratives. Countering these tactics requires that the United States modify its mindset toward conflict and improve integration of its own instruments of power.
Topic:
Cold War, Politics, Conflict, Gray Zone, and Hybrid Warfare
Political Geography:
Russia, Eurasia, North America, and United States of America

18. The Cold War Computer Arms Race

Author:
Bryan Leese
Publication Date:
09-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
Journal of Advanced Military Studies
Institution:
Marine Corps University Press, National Defense University
Abstract:
The Cold War computer arms race illustrates the military’s role in strategic competition. The Soviets bought and stole, versus creating computer technology themselves. A U.S.-led coalition integrated economic, diplomatic, and information mechanisms, embargoing computer technology to disadvantage the Soviets. President Ronald W. Reagan’s offset strategy integrated military power, openly demonstrating computer-infused weapons lethality that jeopardized Soviet quantitative military advantage. President Reagan’s use of the computer arms race shows a way to conduct and integrate a strategic competition campaign of deterrence that includes coercive diplomacy with diplomatic efforts that can deter China and Russia while encouraging them to reverse harmful foreign and domestic policies.
Topic:
Cold War, Science and Technology, Deterrence, Espionage, Embargo, Coercion, Competition, and Computers
Political Geography:
Russia, China, North America, and United States of America

19. Turkish Foreign Policy Towards Central Asia: An Unfolding of Regionalism and Soft Power

Author:
Hayriye Kahveci and Işık Kuşçu Bonnenfant
Publication Date:
07-2023
Content Type:
Journal Article
Journal:
All Azimuth: A Journal of Foreign Policy and Peace
Institution:
Center for Foreign Policy and Peace Research
Abstract:
The end of the Cold War brought about new challenges and opportunities for Turkey in redesigning its foreign policy. The independence of the Central Asian countries, with which Turkey shares common cultural, historical, and linguistic features, prompted Turkey to rapidly adapt to the new environment in the post-Cold War world order. After three decades, Turkey’s engagement with the Central Asian republics has gradually increased and reached a level at which Turkey is capable of effectively combining its soft and hard power capabilities within regional parameters. This article critically analyzes 30 years of Turkish foreign policy in Central Asia with a focus on its regionalism and soft power elements. We argue that Central Asia has provided a unique opportunity for Turkey to reshape its foreign policy on regional terms by utilizing its soft power resources for the first time, the experience later serving as a model for other regions. and its now hegemonic position in Lebanese politics.
Topic:
Foreign Policy, Cold War, Soft Power, and Regionalism
Political Geography:
Central Asia, Turkey, and Middle East

20. CAN DEBT RELIEF CONSTRAIN REPRESSIVE GOVERNMENTS?

Author:
Brett L. Carter
Publication Date:
10-2022
Content Type:
Commentary and Analysis
Institution:
Political Violence @ A Glance
Abstract:
The African continent is confronting the prospect of a new debt crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic wreaked havoc on government finances. The Russian government’s war against Ukraine has increased the cost of food and energy, and compelled investors to sell off government bonds in emerging markets. Rising interest rates in the United States will increase the cost of borrowing. The Chinese economy is struggling under the weight of Xi Jinping’s “Zero COVID” policy and accumulated real estate debt. In 2015, the International Monetary Fund announced that eight countries were in debt distress. By March 2022, 23 were. In June, public debt ratios reached a 20-year high. Africa’s debt-distressed governments “are unlikely to default” in 2022,” The Economist observed, “but face trouble by 2024.” There is some evidence that the debt crisis is especially acute for Africa’s non-democracies. The impending debt crisis coincides with a general sense that Africa is experiencing a democratic recession. Voters are increasingly subject to intimidation and violence. Incumbent presidents are removing term limits. The longstanding norm against military coups is fading.
Topic:
Cold War, Debt, World Bank, GDP, Repression, and IMF
Political Geography:
Africa, Russia, China, Ukraine, Asia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, and United States of America