Publication Year: and within 3 Years

11901. Does sensitivity bias lead respondents to misreport their level of trust in political parties? An investigation into Afrobarometer’s survey results and methodology

Author:: Loubna Marfouk, Martin Sarvas, Jack Wippell, and Jintao Zhu
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: This paper explores the presence of politically sourced sensitivity bias, which leads respondents to report alternative answers to their true beliefs, in Afrobarometer’s survey results. To this end, we run a set of regressions on Afrobarometer Round 7 data to explore mechanisms through which the perceived sponsor of the survey is associated with response patterns related to trust in political parties. Questions regarding individuals’ trust levels in political parties are prone to sensitivity bias insofar as political concerns can lead respondents to favour a certain response for strategic reasons. Moreover, if respondents believe that answers will be shared with the perceived sponsor of the interview, they are likely to tailor their answers to what they judge is the preferred answer of their perceived survey sponsor. We find a number of statistically significant results that suggest some sensitivity bias is present in the survey responses. In particular, we show that there are statistically significant differences in responses for self-reported trust in both opposition and ruling parties when the respondent perceives the government to be the survey sponsor compared to when they perceive the sponsor to be Afrobarometer. We also explore how these responses vary by country- specific characteristics, such as regime type. Reducing respondents’ variation in perception of the survey sponsor might alleviate biases throughout Afrobarometer’s interviews, and a set of methodological changes might mitigate the effects of this sensitivity bias in future surveys. While other studies have focused on potential bias from interviewer effects, our research suggests a new avenue for research, in Africa and beyond, on respondent perceptions of sponsorship.
Topic:: Governance, Research, Political Parties, and Survey
Political Geography:: Africa

11902. Partisanship in a young democracy: Evidence from Ghana

Author:: Alexander Stoecker
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: While past studies have put forward many reasons why partisanship in young African democracies should be considered weak and meaningless, this paper casts doubt on this notion by presenting evidence of strong and stable patterns of partisanship among ordinary citizens. Based on survey data from Ghana, I exploit the variation introduced by the political turnovers of 2008 and 2016 to compare perceptions and attitudes of party supporters when their preferred party is in power and when it is not. The results indicate a pronounced partisan divide, suggesting that partisanship is meaningful and prompts motivated reasoning among citizens. On the one hand this can be seen as evidence for a stable party landscape and thus a more mature democracy, but on the other hand partisan polarization may also obstruct effective governance. Furthermore, the analysis of attitudes toward democratic principles uncovers a worrying double standard that could negatively affect the consolidation of democracy. A simple heterogeneity analysis reveals that while partisan identities seem to exist alongside ethnic identities, the latter still strongly determine the strength of party attachment in Ghana. Future research on political behaviour needs to acknowledge the presence of these partisan motives and continue to investigate the impact of partisanship on the further development of democratic institutions in African democracies.
Topic:: Democracy, Ethnicity, Political Parties, Identity, and Partisanship
Political Geography:: Africa and Ghana

11903. Tax Disobedience in Côte d’Ivoire

Author:: Joseph Kone
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: Since the end of its civil war in 2011 and the installation of President Alassane Dramane Ouattara, Côte d’Ivoire has seen one of the highest rates of economic growth in Africa, sometimes referred to as a new “Ivoirian miracle” (Dionne & Bamba, 2017). As the economy has grown and the state has rebuilt capacity, tax revenues have increased steadily, growing by 37% between 2013 and 2017. In many African states, «import and export taxes constitute the backbone of tax regimes. Revenues are supplemented by indirect taxes, in the form of excise and sales taxes» (D’Arcy, 2011). In the case of Côte d’Ivoire, the government relies heavily on taxes on the export of cocoa and other agricultural products, in addition to taxes on industrial and commercial profits, income, telecommunications, petroleum products, imports, as well as a value-added tax (Ministère du Budget et du Portefeuille de l’Etat, 2020). Even in states with high levels of coercive capacity, citizens’ willingness to pay taxes is a significant determinant of revenues collected. This willingness becomes even more important in contexts of relatively low state capacity, such as has existed in post-conflict Côte d’Ivoire. In fact, a substantial – and growing – proportion of Ivoirians question the state’s right to collect taxes, a fact that could present a significant challenge to the government’s ability to collect revenues in order to rebuild essential state services and avoid excessive debt. This paper focuses on a particular form of tax non-compliance: tax disobedience, or individuals’ refusal to pay taxes and fees as a form of protest. Specifically, it examines several individual-level factors that might be associated with tax disobedience, including lack of a cash income, assessments of public services and elected representatives, accessibility of information, and effective connections with the Ivoirian nation. Our analyses of data from the Afrobarometer Round 7 survey (2017) suggest that some of the conventional wisdom on tax compliance is not supported in the case of tax disobedience in Côte d’Ivoire. While we find, as expected, that individuals who think state performance is improving in delivering key services are less likely to express a willingness to engage in tax disobedience, we find no such link with lived poverty; poorer Ivoirians are no more or less likely than their wealthier counterparts to endorse tax disobedience. Surprisingly, assessments of elected representatives and of corruption in the tax system are not significantly associated with tax disobedience, either. Perceived access to government information and identification with the Ivoirian nation do show associations with tax disobedience, but these links run counter to our expectations: Citizens who think they could access information held by public bodies are significantly more likely to say they engaged or would engage in tax disobedience, as are people who identify more closely with the nation than with their ethnic group. These analyses suggest the need for more research on a crucial question facing African states: Who pays taxes, and who doesn’t?
Topic:: Civil Society, Tax Systems, Revenue Management, and Tax Evasion
Political Geography:: Africa and Côte d'Ivoire

11904. Who gets Involved? Insights on Civic Engagement in Africa and Implications for Fostering Volunteerism

Author:: Carolyn Logan, Josephine Appiah-Nyamekye Sanny, and Kangwook Han
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afrobarometer
Abstract:: The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) set ambitious targets for countries and societies to improve lives and livelihoods around the world. While the expectations of meeting these goals largely fall on governments, it is widely recognized that joint efforts by citizens and their governments will be needed to achieve the best outcomes. Citizen action takes place in many forms and forums, including organizing and working together on shared goals, providing mutual support and assistance, campaigning or advocating for shared needs, and engaging with governments, making demands on them, and holding them to account. While some citizens may become involved in a formal capacity, such as through paid employment in nongovernmental advocacy or service organizations and through employment with governments or other service providers, large numbers will – and must – be engaged in a voluntary capacity. Understanding the nature of this voluntary engagement is a key goal of this analysis. Advocates of volunteerism in Africa have been plagued by a lack of data on who engages in voluntary service, how much they contribute, in what formats, and what the outcomes are. Only a handful of governments have collected data on this topic. Yet our ability to foster and build support for volunteerism is partly dependent on how well we understand the ways people are already engaging every day in these critical but uncompensated contributions in pursuit of the public good. Afrobarometer data can help to fill this void. Although Afrobarometer has not collected data with the explicit aim of studying volunteerism, for more than 20 years it has captured extensive, nationally representative data on respondents’ levels of political and civic participation (much of which can be classed as volunteerism) across seven rounds of surveys in 38 countries. This includes membership in religious and civic organizations and participation in individual and collective efforts to engage with leaders and to voice community needs. In particular, in addition to membership in associations, Afrobarometer tracks the contact of respondents with political and community leaders, their attendance at community meetings, and their efforts to join with others to address issues or express their views. These kinds of civic engagement are the cornerstone of volunteerism to solve problems and improve lives. Understanding who engages, under what circumstances, and why provides a foundation on which to more effectively promote civic engagement and volunteerism in pursuit of the SDGs and other development objectives. This paper explores Afrobarometer data on civic engagement with four main goals: specify how Afrobarometer indicators of civic engagement link to core understandings of volunteerism and its various typologies; map profiles and patterns of the people who engage in volunteerism, especially at the country level; model voluntary civic engagement to identify the key factors and contexts that facilitate or inhibit it at both the individual and country levels; and use these profiles and models to identify entry points for activists who want to foster or support voluntary civic engagement. Our analysis identifies several factors that shape voluntary civic engagement, from socio- demographic ones such as education and wealth to citizens’ socio-political engagement, their personal sense of efficacy, and their overall trust in their governments. Country contexts are important, as we see wide cross-country differences in levels of volunteerism. Among other aspects, wealthier countries, on average, report less volunteerism, while democracies report more. We have found evidence that confronting unmet needs – whether one’s own or those of others – is a major motivating factor of voluntary engagement. These findings suggest a number of opportunities and entry points for increasing citizen engagement. The paper is organized in four parts. Part A begins with a discussion of knowledge on volunteerism and participation, highlighting the lack of evidence and data sources on Africa and how civic engagement intersects with volunteerism. Part B develops descriptive profiles of the participants in voluntary civic engagement. Part C explores key driving factors at the individual and country levels. The final section presents recommendations for acting on these findings.
Topic:: Development, Sustainable Development Goals, Sustainability, and Civic Engagement
Political Geography:: Africa

11905. Judicial Independence in Afghanistan: Legal Framework and Practical Challenges

Author:: Shoaib Timory
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Afghanistan Research and Evaluation Unit (AREU)
Abstract:: In a government with a separation of powers, independence is an indispensable feature of the judiciary. An independent judiciary gives credibility to political systems and is also the force behind reinforcing democracy and the rule of law. This watching brief briefly maps out the existing legal framework that ensures the independence of the judicial branch in Afghanistan and the reasons for the weak utilis ation of this feature which puts the judiciary in an uneven position compared to the other two branches of government. Moreover, the watching brief presents a set of recommendations for the enhancement of judicial independence in the country.
Topic:: Democracy, Rule of Law, Judiciary, and Independence
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and Middle East

11906. First Response: Initial COVID-19 Actions from the IIENetwork

Author:: Clare Overmann, Lindsay Calvert, and Sylvia Jons
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: At the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, IIE launched the IIE Network Engagement Series, which consists of thought leadership webinars and interactive small group discussions, called Day-by-Days. These events offered a platform for practitioners and leaders from the field to share their experiences from the first weeks and months of the crisis. These responses and others are captured in this publication to highlight the practices that worked during COVID-19 and to act as an informal reference on how to handle future crises.
Topic:: Education, Crisis Management, Higher Education, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

11907. Broadening Opportunities for Study Abroad: U.S. Government Funded Scholarship Programs

Author:: Leah Mason and Jodi Sanger
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: This paper explores U.S. government scholarship opportunities available to U.S. students interested in an international experience, highlighting different sponsoring agencies. It analyzes how the scholarships support U.S. government programming goals of encouraging citizen diplomacy, strengthening national security, and building a globalized workforce. Case studies presented in this paper demonstrate the contributions of U.S. government scholarship programs to study abroad and the international experiences of U.S. students.
Topic:: Diplomacy, Education, Globalization, Government, National Security, and Study Abroad
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

11908. The Rise of Remote Global Internships: Promising Practices and the Implications for Career Readiness

Author:: Leah Mason and Mirka Martel
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: This paper provides insight into the role of remote global internships in providing experiential educational opportunities for university students and the potential role these internships have in developing students' skills acquisition, global citizenship, and career readiness. The first section provides an overview of the definitions used to describe in-person and remote global internship experiences including relative benefits and challenges. It then outlines the three analytical frames of remote global internships: skills acquisition, global citizenship, and career readiness. Through an analysis of recent findings from global internship program providers as well as others, we describe promising practices for supporting remote global internships applicable to all members of the international education community – universities, employers, and third-party providers alike. This paper aims to contribute to the conversation on the possible role of remote global internships to widen the space of availability for students to gain international work experiences while remaining in their home country and the relative benefits of these experiences both during and after the COVID-19 pandemic.
Topic:: Education, Employment, Study Abroad, and Internships
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

11909. A Rising or Ebbing Tide: Do Chinese Students Still Want to Study in the U.S.?

Author:: Peggy Blumenthal
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: Many U.S. colleges and universities are anxiously wondering if newly admitted Chinese students will accept their admission offers and return to American campuses in fall 2021. Needing to balance a host of issues, will Chinese students decide to remain at home or study in a different host country? This IIENetwork Briefing paper assesses the current situation, explores possible outcomes for fall 2021 enrollments from China’s mainland and Hong Kong, and presents some ways that U.S. campuses are responding to these recruiting challenges during a changing political and health environment in both the host and home countries.
Topic:: International Relations, Higher Education, COVID-19, and Study Abroad
Political Geography:: China and United States of America

11910. To Rescue Scholars is to Rescue the Future

Author:: IIE Scholar Rescue Fund
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: In 2002, IIE’s trustees launched the Scholar Rescue Fund (IIE-SRF) as the only global program that arranges and funds academic fellowships for threatened and displaced scholars worldwide. Nearly twenty years later, we are delighted to release a new study – made possible through the generous support of IIE Chairman Emeritus and IIE-SRF co-founder Dr. Henry Kaufman – that documents the far-reaching impacts and achievements of over 200 IIE-SRF alumni from 38 countries on their host and home communities and academic disciplines.
Topic:: Education, Higher Education, and Academia
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11911. International Higher Education Scholarships and Fellowships for Social Justice: The Role of Foundations

Author:: Selma Talha-Jebril and Mirka Martel
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: International Higher Education Scholarships and Fellowships for Social Justice: The Role of Foundations explores philanthropy's role in funding international scholarship and fellowship programs committed to reducing long-standing disparities in higher education. The research paper addresses a gap in the literature regarding U.S. and non-U.S. foundations that have funded international scholarship and fellowship programs that focus on social justice, namely equity and access. The research paper is framed by the Ford Foundation International Fellowships Program (IFP) and the IFP Alumni Tracking Study, administered by the Institute of International Education (IIE). It brings in the perspectives of IFP and other scholarship and fellowship programs for social justice. The findings indicate four elements that contributed to growing interest in funding international higher education programs: (1) The push from multilateral agencies such as the U.N. and World Bank; (2) The rise of personal wealth during the past two decades; (3) The growing global youth population and access to higher education; and (4) The increasing liberal government policies encourage non-state actors to contribute and play a more significant role in the field of higher education. The research paper reveals that higher education scholarship and fellowship programs with common agendas – whether between donors and academic institutions or between government and international partners – often lead to sustainable partnerships and better program outcomes because they are supported by more than one entity and are grounded in common goals and visions.
Topic:: Social Justice, Higher Education, Philanthropy, Scholarships, and Fellowships
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11912. A Commitment to Building a Global Generation: The Five-Year Impact of IIE’s Generation Study Abroad Initiative

Author:: Lindsay Calvert and Jodi Sanger
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: In 2014, IIE launched the Generation Study Abroad (GSA), a five-year initiative to mobilize resources and commitments with the goal of increasing and diversifying the number of U.S. students studying abroad by the end of the decade. IIE created a concerted effort and space for partners to join Generation Study Abroad by committing to bold, ambitious actions in support of study abroad on their campuses or at their organizations. The campaign became a global movement, forming the 800+ strong GSA Commitment Partner network representing a variety of U.S.-based and international partners, including national governments, higher education institutions (HEIs), study abroad organizations, education associations, and more. In 2020, IIE took stock of Generation Study Abroad with the final annual progress survey for GSA Commitment Partners. The survey tracked progress toward goals, best practices, and the implementation of effective activities and resources for the network. The report highlights key programmatic efforts and partner achievements framed by an analysis of data collected over the life of the initiative. In addition to evaluating the impact of this initiative, it offers an opportunity to continue building on the momentum of study abroad growth from 2019.
Topic:: Globalization, Youth, Higher Education, and Study Abroad
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11913. COVID-19 Effects on US Higher Education Campuses Report 4

Author:: Mirka Martel and Julie Baer
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: The fourth report in IIE’s COVID-19 Snapshot Survey Series analyzes the international education field one year after the start of the COVID-19 pandemic and highlights the effects on international student enrollment and U.S. study abroad for the 2021/22 academic year.
Topic:: Higher Education, COVID-19, and Study Abroad
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

11914. International Student Mobility Flows and COVID-19 Realities

Author:: Leah Mason
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute of International Education (IIE)
Abstract:: The flow of international students crossing borders to pursue educational opportunities has been significantly affected by the COVID‐19 pandemic, causing higher education systems worldwide to consider the context and realities of global academic mobility before and after the health crisis. This joint paper by the Institute of International Education (IIE) and IC3 analyzes significant international student mobility trends before the COVID‐19 pandemic, the role of the United States and other host countries in offering international students academic opportunities, and the increased competitiveness among countries to attract international students. The paper will provide an overview of the global mobility flows to and from major world regions in the 2019/2020 academic year. The paper will then consider the effects of COVID‐19 on global student mobility and how the pandemic has comparatively affected international students and the countries that serve as their hosts.
Topic:: Mobility, Higher Education, Students, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus and United States of America

11915. Economic Value of Peace 2021: Measuring the global economic impact of violence and conflict

Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The comprehensive methodology includes 18 indicators covering the direct and indirect costs of violence, and the expenditures to contain and prevent violence. The model also includes a multiplier for the direct costs to account for the additional economic activity resulting from a redirection of these costs to more productive pursuits. The economic impact of violence provides an empirical basis to better understand the economic benefits resulting from improvements in peace. Estimates are provided for 163 countries and independent territories, covering over 99.5 per cent of the global population. It uses the best available data to calculate the overall impact. However, not all categories of violence have reliable data, therefore preventing their inclusion in the model. Some examples of costs excluded from the model are counter-terrorism and intelligence agency expenditures, insurance costs, lost business opportunities and family violence. As such, the estimates presented in this report are considered highly conservative. In 2019, the economic impact of violence decreased by $64 billion from the previous year. This was the equivalent of a 0.4 per cent decrease and was largely driven by reductions in Armed Conflict. This fall predominantly occurred in the Middle East and North Africa region and was driven by fewer terror attacks, conflict deaths, and population displacement costs. This is a continued reversal of previous periods where between 2012 and 2017, the global economic impact of violence rose by 12.2 per cent to peak at $14.8 trillion. This is the second consecutive year of improvement.
Topic:: Political Violence, Terrorism, Peacekeeping, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11916. Global Peace Index 2021: Measuring peace in a complex world

Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: This is the 15th edition of the Global Peace Index (GPI), which ranks 163 independent states and territories according to their level of peacefulness. Produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), the GPI is the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness. This report presents the most comprehensive datadriven analysis to-date on trends in peace, its economic value, and how to develop peaceful societies. The GPI covers 99.7 per cent of the world’s population, using 23 qualitative and quantitative indicators from highly respected sources, and measures the state of peace across three domains: the level of Societal Safety and Security, the extent of Ongoing Domestic and International Conflict, and the degree of Militarisation. This year’s results show that the average level of global peacefulness deteriorated by 0.07 per cent. This is the ninth deterioration in peacefulness in the last thirteen years, with 87 countries improving, and 73 recording deteriorations; however, the change in score is the second smallest in the history of the index. The 2021 GPI reveals a world in which the conflicts and crises that emerged in the past decade have begun to abate, only to be replaced with a new wave of tension and uncertainty as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and rising tensions between many of the major powers.
Topic:: Peacekeeping, Global Security, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11917. Business & Peace 2021

Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: Rather than asking what businesses can do for peace, this study differentiates itself by focusing on what peace can offer businesses. The Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP) sees this as an important, but missing step in business analysis. In order for the private sector to engage with peacebuilding, investors first need to see the benefits of peace to their investment decisions. This work shows that economic performance can be predicted by movements in the same socio-economic developmental factors that affect peacefulness. These conditions are known as Positive Peace. The global economic impact of violence was $14.4 trillion in 2020. This is broadly equivalent to the entire economy of China. If humanity were to reduce violence by ten per cent per annum, the savings of $1.4 trillion would broadly equate to adding an economy the size of Russia’s or Brazil’s every year to the global fold. The burden of violence on an economy is self-evident. However, this report focusses on the converse perspective: countries that improve their underlying conditions, as gauged by IEP’s measures of peace, create the potential for a significant peace dividend for business.
Topic:: Economics, International Political Economy, Business, Peace, and International Business
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11918. Mexico Peace Index 2021: Identifying and measuring the factors that drive peace

Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP)
Abstract:: The 2021 report is the eighth edition of the Mexico Peace Index (MPI), produced by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP). It provides a comprehensive measure of peacefulness in Mexico, including trends, analysis and estimates of the economic impact of violence on the country. The MPI is based on the Global Peace Index, the world’s leading measure of global peacefulness, produced by IEP every year since 2007. Mexico’s peacefulness improved by 3.5 percent in 2020. After four years of successive deteriorations, this marks a change in trend following the sharp increases in violence recorded between 2015 and 2018. This change can be traced to well before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Homicide and firearms crime rates peaked in July 2018 and have since been gradually declining. Other crime rates began to fall in mid-2019, which also preceded the pandemic. While improvements were occurring prior to the onset of COVID-19, further reductions in specific types of violence in 2020 followed the implementation of public health measures and stay-at-home orders. Crimes typically associated with people’s everyday movements — such as robberies, assaults, kidnappings and extortion — all recorded notable improvements in 2020.
Topic:: Crime, Economics, Violence, and Peace
Political Geography:: Mexico

11919. Labour Reforms in the Indian State of Rajasthan: a boon or a bane?

Author:: Sourabh Paul and Diti Goswami
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: The authors examine the impact of labour law deregulations in the Indian state of Rajasthan on plant employment and performance. In 2014, after a long time, Rajasthan was the first Indian state that introduced labour reforms in the Industrial Disputes Act (1947), the Factories Act (1948), the Contract Labour (Regulation and Abolition) Act (1970), and the Apprentices Act (1961). Exploiting this unique quasi-natural experiment, the authors apply a difference-in-difference framework using the Annual Survey of Industries longitudinal data of India’s manufacturing establishments. Their results show that reforms had an unintended consequence of the decline in labour use. Also, worryingly, the flexibility resulted in a disproportionate decline in the directly employed worker. Evidence suggests that the reforms positively impact the value-added and productivity of the establishments. The strength of these effects varies depending on the underlying industry and reform structure. These findings prove robust to a set of specifications.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Reform, Employment, and Regulation
Political Geography:: India

11920. Can a Machine Learn Democracy?

Author:: Rajendran Narayanan, Sakina Dhorajiwala, and Chakradhar Buddha
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) provides up to 100 days of work in a year for every rural household at a minimum wage. The Act has several landmark worker-centric provisions. For the implementation of MGNREGA, for the first time in the country, a transaction-based Management Information System (MIS) has been made available in the public domain; a feather in the cap of transparency. However, there are several critical questions to be examined in this regard. Our main focus in this article is to explore the tensions between technocracy and democratic values/participation in the context of MGNREGA and its associated MIS. We use our action research on information-based interventions in several states to examine whether the MGNREGA MIS incorporates democratic values, whether it has been inclusive or if it has widened the existing inequities. We use specific examples to illustrate how such an information system has been used to subvert the legal rights of workers. We underscore that technological interventions, with a compassionate human-centred design are potentially powerful tools for transparency, accountability, and grievance redressal. However, technology alone can neither enhance participatory democracy nor reduce socio-economic inequalities.
Topic:: Economics, Science and Technology, Labor Issues, Democracy, Employment, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: India

11921. Tracking Employment Trajectories during the Covid-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Indian Panel Data

Author:: Rosa Abraham, Amit Basole, and Surbhi Kesar
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: Using the CMIE’s Consumer Pyramids Household Survey, we track a panel of households prior to the lockdown (in December 2019), during the lockdown (in April 2020) and afterwards (in August 2020) to investigate the employment and income effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and its associated containment measures. We identify four distinct employment experiences during the pandemic for those who were in the workforce just prior to the lockdown: no loss of employment (“No effect”), loss of employment followed by recovery (“Recovery”), loss of employment with no recovery (“No recovery”), and a delayed loss of employment (“Delayed job loss”). Overall, 54% of individuals experienced no job loss, while 30% lost work in April but recovered by August. 12% had not recovered employment as of August 2020. We analyse how these trajectories vary across different social and economic characteristics to quantify contractions and recovery in the labour market and the extent to which the vulnerabilities vary across different social groups, employment arrangements, and industries. We find that women were substantially more likely to lose employment as well as less likely to recover employment. Job loss was also more severe for lower castes as compared to intermediate and upper castes and for daily wage workers as compared to regular wage workers. Younger workers were particularly vulnerable to job loss compared to older workers. Having lost employment in April, younger workers were also less likely to recover employment in August. Finally, for those who were employed in both December 2019 and August 2020, we examine the changes in employment arrangements. We find a much greater frequency of transitions from wage employment to self-employment, more than that in the seasonally comparable period last year (Dec 2018 to Aug 2019). Our results call for urgent additional fiscal measures to counteract these effects.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, Unemployment, Pandemic, Job Creation, and Consumerism
Political Geography:: India

11922. A Short Note on Debt-Neutral Fiscal Policy

Author:: Zico Dasgupta
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: One of the central concerns against increasing expenditures in the recent period has been the possibility of an adverse impact on debt-GDP ratio. Once stability of debt-ratio is regarded as a policy-objective, the aggregate expenditure that is consistent with the stability condition gets determined by the given level of output growth rate and revenue receipts. Instead of perceiving expenditures to be determined by the debt-stability condition, this short note attempts to lay bare the conditions under which the debt-stability condition is restored despite increasing the growth rate of non-capital primary expenditure to a targeted level. The targeted level of growth rate of non-capital expenditures can be perceived to be one which compensates for the income loss of labour during the pandemic. In contrast to conventional wisdom, the possibility of increasing such expenditures is explored not by reducing capital expenditures, but rather by increasing the latter. Using the multiplier value of capital expenditures estimated by the RBI, it is argued that the debt-ratio would remain unchanged despite increasing the growth rate of non capital primary expenditure if the capital expenditures growth rate is allowed to increase in a specific proportion.
Topic:: Debt, Economics, Political Economy, Labor Issues, GDP, Employment, and Fiscal Policy
Political Geography:: India

11923. Technical & Vocational Education and Training in India: Lacking Vision, Strategy and Coherence

Author:: Santosh Mehrotra
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: This paper briefly examines the performance of each of the five pillars of India’s TVET ecosystem. It also discusses the poor design and implementation of a national vocational qualification framework. It goes to discuss the latest development in the field of education: the National Education Policy 2020 and its view on TVET, and finds it seriously wanting. The paper argues that if India does not want its tertiary education system to be overwhelmed by the massification of school education that occurred since early noughties, it must divert increasing numbers of secondary graduates to vocational education and training. Together with a rising number of jobs in the non-agricultural sector, to which India’s youth aspire to, strengthening vocational education offers the prospect of India potentially realizing its demographic dividend, in the same way that many East Asian countries. If India’s TVET system continues to lack vision, strategy and coherence to underpin the country’s aspiration to become a high human development country, we risk frittering away our dividend.
Topic:: Economics, Education, Labor Issues, Employment, Training, and Vocational Training
Political Geography:: India

11924. Explaining COVID-19 Lockdown, Employment and Migration in India: Challenges and Prospects

Author:: Purna Chandra Parida and Yogesh Suri
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: This paper makes an attempt to do an assessment of the impact of COVID-19 on employment and migration in India. The analysis is based on up-to-date facts and figures available in the public domain on economic growth, employment and migration. Using the employment elasticity approach, the study estimates employment loss during 2020-21 owing to the negative impact of COVID-19 on economic activities. The results of the study suggest that the country may witness job loss with the tune of 18.5  18.8 million in the current fiscal year. This in turn would shoot up the unemployment rate from 5.8% in 2018-19 to 8.9% in 2020-21, warranting a coordinated and focused approach from both the Central and State governments to uplift the confidence of the people and bring back the lost jobs, particularly the migrant workers. The study also emphasises on Central government’s urgent attention and action plan for uplifting the rural economy in order to revive India’s economy in the short run.
Topic:: Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, Employment, Economic Growth, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: India

11925. Covid-19 Crisis: An Indictment of India’s Informal Economy

Author:: Jenny Sulfath and Balu Sunilraj
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: This paper attempts to look at the ways informality is conceptualized in India and argues that the problems with the laws pertaining to informal labour are not simply an implementation issue, but the design of the labour laws itself exclude informal labour. While reviewing the history of labour laws in India and the social history of labour participation, the paper also examines the current change in the political approach to labour by changing the labour laws in the pretext of the pandemic. Focussing on the changes made in labour laws in Madhya Pradesh the paper argues that these changes would further informalise the workers intensifying the crisis.
Topic:: Economics, Labor Issues, Employment, and Informal Economy
Political Geography:: India

11926. Down and Out? The Gendered Impact of the Covid-19 Pandemic on India’s Labour Market

Author:: Rosa Abraham, Amit Basole, and Surbhi Kesar
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: The Covid-19 pandemic has created unprecedented disruptions in labour markets across the world including loss of employment and decline in incomes. Using panel data from India, we investigate the differential impact of the shock on labour market outcomes for male and female workers. We find that, conditional on being in the workforce prior to the pandemic, women were seven times more likely to lose work during the nationwide lockdown, and conditional on losing work, eleven times more likely to not return to work subsequently, compared to men. Using logit regressions on a sample stratified by gender, we find that daily wage and young workers, whether men or women, were more likely to face job loss. Education shielded male workers from job loss, whereas highly educated female workers were more vulnerable to job loss. Marriage had contrasting effects for men and women, with married women less likely to return to work and married men more likely to return to work. Religion and gender intersect to exacerbate the disproportionate impact, with Muslim women more likely to not return to work, unlike Muslim men where we find religion having no significant impact. Finally, for those workers who did return to work, we find that a large share of men in the workforce moved to self-employment or daily wage work, in agriculture, trade or construction. For women, on the other hand, there is limited movement into alternate employment arrangements or industries. This suggests that typical ‘fallback’ options for employment do not exist for women. During such a shock, women are forced to exit the workforce whereas men negotiate across industries and employment arrangements.
Topic:: Economics, Gender Issues, Labor Issues, Women, Employment, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: India

11927. How Much is a Government Job in India Worth?

Author:: Kunal Mangal
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: Government jobs in India are valuable, not just because they pay relatively higher wages, but also because they provide many valuable amenities, such as lifetime tenure, access to bribes, and prestige. Does the value of these amenities compete with the nominal wage itself? I use the observed search behavior of candidates preparing for highly structured competitive exams for government jobs to infer a lower bound on the total value of a government job, including amenities. Based on a sample of 120 male candidates preparing for state-level civil service exams in Pune, Maharashtra, I estimate a total value of at least 425,000 INR per month. This estimate implies that the amenity value of a government job is at least 81% of total compensation. The high amenity value is not driven by misinformed beliefs about the nominal wage, nor by a high value placed on the process of studying itself. I conclude with a discussion of the implications of these findings for policy and the questions it raises for future research.
Topic:: Economics, Government, Employment, Public Sector, Job Creation, and Workforce
Political Geography:: India

11928. Where Do They Come From, Where Do They Go? Labour Market Transitions in India

Author:: Rahul Menon and Paaritosh Nath
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: Using two rounds of the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) covering the periods 2017-18 and 2018-19, we construct a panel of urban Indian individuals aged 15 to 65, and analyse the dynamics of their participation – or non-participation – in the labour force. We construct transition probabilities to study the movement of individuals through three distinct statuses – employment, unemployment and non-participation – at the aggregate level and for different demographic groups. We find evidence of considerable movements from the labour force to non-participation; there exists a significant discouraged worker effect as well as a pronounced movement from employment outside the labour force, specifically for women. A majority of those unemployed in the beginning of the year remain so at the end of the year, indicating the presence of long-term unemployment. The reduction in unemployment rates from 2017-18 to 2018-19 hides significant weaknesses in Indian urban labour markets. This study represents an original contribution to the field of Indian labour economics, given the paucity of large-scale studies of the dynamics of Indian labour.
Topic:: Economics, Migration, Labor Issues, Employment, Labor Market, and Workforce
Political Geography:: India

11929. Improving Survey Quality using Para Data: Lessons from the India Working Survey

Author:: Deepti Goel, Rosa Abraham, and Rahul Lahoti
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: The efficacy of survey-based policy recommendations is primarily dictated by the quality of data collected in the first place. Is the survey truly representative of the population it claims to characterise? Are respondents voicing their true opinions or are they playing to the gallery? Did enumerator bias creep into the data? These are questions that most users of surveys have, but are typically brushed aside in the race to get the analyses out. While there are no foolproof measures to ensure that survey data are authentic, certain steps can be taken to improve their dependability. One such is the use of what is called ‘para data’ (data about the process of data collection), to streamline enumerator practices, and thereby improve the reliability of the data being collected. This report details our experience of using para data to improve the quality of the India Working Survey (IWS).
Topic:: Economics, Employment, Survey, Data, and Workforce
Political Geography:: India

11930. Financing Fiscal Support under Alternative Policy Frameworks

Author:: Zico Dasgupta
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Sustainable Employment, Azim Premji University
Abstract:: This paper perceives fiscal support as a policy instrument and examines alternative policy frameworks that can simultaneously stabilize labour income, output and debt-GDP ratio. The need to stabilize labour income over and above output follows from the possibility of income growth rate of labour falling below output growth rate. This paper points out the limitations of sound finance regime in meeting these targets and proposes an alternative policy framework which is termed as Debt-Neutral Functional Finance with Fiscal Support (DNFS). The DNFS framework highlights the role of development financial institutions and the need for a floor level of corporate tax-GDP ratio.
Topic:: Economics, Employment, Fiscal Policy, and Workforce
Political Geography:: India

11931. Policy Brief 1: Building Capacity for Development of Factoring in Africa to accelerate trade development and support AfCFTA

Author:: The African Capacity Building Foundation
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:: This Policy Brief developed by the African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF) and the African Export–Import Bank (Afreximbank) explores the opportunities offered by factoring which provides a solution to address the financing gap for Small and Medium enterprises (SMEs) to support Africa’s structural transformation particularly in trade development as part of the African Continental Free trade Agreement (AfCFTA). The aim of the Policy Brief is to examine the capacity imperatives for the development and use of factoring as an innovative trade financing tool to advance the AfCFTA. The Policy Brief notes that Africa performance in the factoring market needs to improve significantly based on a number of key indicators – such as share in global factoring, including international factoring, innovation such as reverse factoring, number of factoring companies, turn-over per factoring companies and factoring GDP penetration. The Policy Brief also highlights that Africa’s factoring volume of about US$27 billion representing a share representing a share of 0.84% in the global factoring market of approximately US$3,300 billion a year in 2019 is extremely low. It therefore argues that Africa needs a coordinated approach to capacity development to successfully develop and use factoring.
Topic:: Development, Economic Growth, Trade, and Banking
Political Geography:: Africa

11932. Factoring in Africa to support trade development: Challenges and opportunities for growth through capacity development.

Author:: The African Capacity Building Foundation
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: The African Capacity Building Foundation (ACBF)
Abstract:: This occasional paper is about factoring, known as the selling or transferring of accounts receivable to secure funds that are immediately available. The process provides a solution to address the financing gap for Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) to support trade development as part of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) and Africa’s structural transformation agenda. The study is based on an extensive review of the literature and an analysis of secondary data from FCI database and other materials collected on factoring to identify key issues, trend, progress, drivers, and barriers affecting factoring in leading African countries. The paper shows that factoring represents an alternative source of financing for African businesses to increase intra-African trade under the AfCFTA. Other findings include low Africa’s share in global factoring and growth rate in factoring, and low factoring GDP penetration rates of leading African countries. The paper notes that Africa’s performance in the factoring market needs to improve significantly based on a number of key indicators. However, factoring activities are projected to reach US$50 billion by 2025 in Africa with a number of small-sized factoring companies emerging in other African countries. For this to be achieved, a coordinated approach to capacity development is needed to address the barriers identified.
Topic:: Development, Finance, Economic Growth, and Trade
Political Geography:: Africa

11933. Chinese Nationalism and the “Gray Zone”: Case Analyses of Public Opinion and PRC Maritime Policy

Author:: Andrew Chubb
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Research Paper
Institution:: China Maritime Studies Institute, U.S. Naval War College
Abstract:: This volume examines the role of popular nationalism in China’s maritime conduct. Analysis of nine case studies of assertive but ostensibly nonmilitary actions by which the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has advanced its position in the South and East China Seas in recent years reveals little compelling evidence of popular sentiment driving decision-making. While some regard for public opinion demonstrably shapes Beijing’s propaganda strategies on maritime issues, and sometimes its diplomatic practices as well, the imperative for Chinese leaders to satisfy popular nationalism is at most a contributing factor to policy choices they undertake largely on the basis of other considerations of power and interest. Where surges of popular nationalism have been evident, they have tended to follow after the PRC maritime actions in question, suggesting instead that Chinese authorities channeled public opinion to support existing policy.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Nationalism, Public Opinion, Military Affairs, Navy, Maritime, and Oceans and Seas
Political Geography:: China

11934. China's Belt and Road: Implications for the United States

Author:: Jennifer A. Hillman and David Sacks
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Council on Foreign Relations
Abstract:: The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Chinese President Xi Jinping’s signature foreign policy undertaking and the world’s largest infrastructure program, poses a significant challenge to U.S. economic, political, climate change, security, and global health interests. Since BRI’s launch in 2013, Chinese banks and companies have financed and built everything from power plants, railways, highways, and ports to telecommunications infrastructure, fiber-optic cables, and smart cities around the world. If implemented sustainably and responsibly, BRI has the potential to meet long-standing developing country needs and spur global economic growth. To date, however, the risks for both the United States and recipient countries raised by BRI’s implementation considerably outweigh its benefits. BRI was initially designed to connect China’s modern coastal cities to its underdeveloped interior and to its Southeast, Central, and South Asian neighbors, cementing China’s position at the center of a more connected world. The initiative has since outgrown its original regional corridors, expanding to all corners of the globe. Its scope now includes a Digital Silk Road intended to improve recipients’ telecommunications networks, artificial intelligence capabilities, cloud computing, e-commerce and mobile payment systems, surveillance technology, and other high-tech areas, along with a Health Silk Road designed to operationalize China’s vision of global health governance.1 Hundreds of projects around the world now fall under the BRI umbrella.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Hegemony, Conflict, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Regionalism
Political Geography:: China, Asia, North America, and United States of America

11935. Congressional Perspectives on U.S. Policy Toward North Korea and Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula

Author:: Kelsey Davenport and Julia Masterson
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Arms Control Association
Abstract:: Addressing the threat posed by North Korea’s nuclear weapons is one of the most significant and complex challenges facing the United States. Developing, implementing, and sustaining a verifiable diplomatic process that reduces risk and rolls back Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program requires a whole of government approach, including constructive contributions from members of the U.S. Congress. While crafting and implementing such an approach will be the prerogative of the Executive Branch, the role that Congress can play in supporting or hindering such a process should not be overlooked. Congress has used an array of tools to put in place conditions for negotiations, express its support or opposition to administration policy, and implement coercive measures toward North Korea designed to punish Pyongyang for its violations of international law and stymie its weapons development efforts. Using survey data and in-depth interviews from the late months of 2020, this report provides insight into how Congress views the North Korean nuclear threat and U.S. approaches to engaging with Pyongyang. More clarity into Congressional views and attitudes may lead to more effective policymaking.
Topic:: Security, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Military Strategy, and Denuclearization
Political Geography:: Asia, South Korea, North Korea, North America, and United States of America

11936. Freeing Fiscal Space: A human rights imperative in response to COVID-19

Author:: Ignacio Saiz
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: Of the many dimensions of inequality that the COVID-19 pandemic has magnified, inequality between countries is one of the most glaring, yet one of the least effectively addressed. While the pandemic’s immediate health impacts have been felt in countries across all income levels, its eco- nomic consequences have been particularly dev- astating in countries of the Global South. Fuelling these inequalities is the disparity of resources that countries count on to respond to the crisis. International cooperation has never been more essential to address this disparity and enable all countries to draw on the resources they need to tackle the pandemic and its economic fallout. Besides the provision of emergency financial support, wealthier countries and international financial institutions (IFIs) need to cooperate by lifting the barriers their debt and tax policies and practices impose on the fiscal space of low- and middle-income countries. As this article explores, such cooperation is not only a global public health imperative. It is also a binding human rights obli- gation. Framing it as such could play an impor- tant role in generating the accountability and political will that has so far been sorely lacking.
Topic:: Fiscal Policy, Public Health, Pandemic, and COVID-19
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11937. Digital Technologies, Peacebuilding and Civil Society

Author:: Julia-Silvana Hofstetter
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: The wide availability of digital technologies is increasingly impacting the work of peacebuilders, altering both peacebuilding practices and conflict dynamics. The malicious use of technology – from the weaponization of social media to digital authoritarianism and cyberattacks – poses new threats to peaceful societies and urges peacebuilders to consider new fields of action in cyberspace. However, digitalization has also brought major innovations to the work of peacebuilders, establishing a new field of practice, ‘digital peacebuilding’. Many of the innovative uses of peace technologies – for conflict prevention, transformation and reconciliation – have been driven by civil society organizations, who are at the forefront of addressing the rising threat of digital conflict drivers, too. This report provides an overview of the opportunities and challenges digital technologies create for peacebuilders, discusses how they alter the role of civil society, and proposes future directions for the digital peacebuilding agenda.
Topic:: Civil Society, Science and Technology, Cybersecurity, Peace, and Digitization
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11938. Wartime Violence, Collective Grievances and Post-Conflict Protests

Author:: Roman Krtsch
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Institute for Development and Peace
Abstract:: The immediate aftermath of civil wars is a period prone to heightened contention: Political decisions about the distribution of aid or power, for example, can deepen social fault lines and in some instances even result in violent unrest. Yet despite its relevance, our knowledge on the drivers for individual participation in post-conflict contentious activism remains limited. Previous research has found particularly wartime experiences to affect political and social behaviour of individuals in the post-conflict period. Based on these findings, I argue that exposure to civil war violence increases the likelihood for individuals to participate in post-war protests. Moreover, I conjecture that this effect can be explained with the reinforcement of group-based grievances. Using survey data from the Afrobarometer collected shortly after the end of the Ugandan civil war in 2008, I find support for the argument: Results from linear probability models show a consistent and robust relationship between county-level war violence and the likelihood to participate in protests. An additional analysis with a novel measure of group-level exposure and a causal mediation analysis furthermore corroborate the assumed mechanism.
Topic:: Conflict, Protests, Violence, and Post-Conflict
Political Geography:: Uganda and Africa

11939. How not to Globalise IR: ‘Centre’ and ‘Periphery’ as Constitutive of ‘the International’

Author:: Pinar Bilgin
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Abstract:: Scholars who adopted de-centring as a strategy for globalising IR have embraced the notions of ‘centre’ and ‘periphery’ to highlight structural inequalities between North America and Western Europe and the rest of the world in the production of knowledge about world politics. In doing so, however, de-centring IR scholarship has portrayed the ‘periphery’ as if it is a new entrant to the ‘international’. Yet, such a presumption is not in the spirit of globalising IR, which views the periphery as the ‘constitutive outside’. By re-visiting the 1970s’ centre-periphery approaches, the paper highlights the limitations of the de-centring approaches insofar as they have not always been attentive to the critical concerns of earlier theorisations about ‘centre’ and ‘periphery’, and underscores the need for studying the periphery as ‘constitutive outside’. The periphery is ‘outside’ by virtue of having been left out of those mainstream narratives that the centre tells about the international; it is also ‘constitutive’ because those ideas, practices, and institutions that are typically ascribed to the ‘centre’ have been co-constituted by centre and periphery in toto.
Topic:: International Relations, Hegemony, International Relations Theory, Centralization, and Periphery
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11940. Buddhism and the Question of Relationality in International Relations

Author:: Kosuke Shimizu
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Relationality seems to have attracted a broader audience in international relations (IR) in the last decade. Unlike other approaches of the relational turn that concentrate more on analyzing or stabilizing the international order, the Buddhist theory of IR is mainly concerned with the political practice of the liberation and healing of people. In this article, I will illustrate how Mahāyāna Buddhist teachings can contribute to IR by using case studies. The cases to investigate include the Okinawa base issue, Denmark’s ‘light in the darkness’, and South Korea-Japan diplomatic relations.
Topic:: Religion, Ethics, International Relations Theory, and Buddhism
Political Geography:: Japan, Europe, Asia, South Korea, and Denmark

11941. Recrafting International Relations by Worlding Multiply

Author:: David Blaney and Tamara A. Trownsell
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: The contemporary IR craft homogenizes a pluriverse of time-spacescapes as if it were a “one-world world.” We propose a strategy of recrafting to engender a nimble discipline for actively encountering ‘the world multiply’ and a generation of scholars capable of engaging various forms of knowing/being/sensing/doing. Worlding multiply requires: (1) taking seriously the plurality of worlds that emerge through distinct existential assumptions and (2) learning how to translate/read across time-spacescapes built through incommensurate ways of doing/being without reducing one to the other. We suggest conscientiously developing tools—new skills, concepts, ways of being—for encountering complexity in both pedagogy and scholarship.
Topic:: International Relations, International Relations Theory, Pedagogy, Academia, and Scholarships
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11942. Going Beyond the Add-and-Stir Critique: Tracing the Hybrid Masculinist Legacies of the Performative State

Author:: Amya Agarwal
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: A West-centric knowledge bias has plagued International Relations (IR) for some time, prompting many non-West scholars to develop indigenous knowledge systems. In doing so, there is, however, a risk of both essentialization of certain cultures/histories; and reproducing the hierarchic and exclusionary structure of knowledge production. Moving beyond the add and stir critique style of non-Western approaches to IR, this paper explores the significance of connections and hybrid histories to understand gendered state practices. Through a case study of state performance in Kashmir, the paper traces the hybrid masculinist legacies (colonial, Brahminical and Kshatriya) derived from both Western and non-Western histories.
Topic:: International Relations, Gender Issues, Governance, State Building, and Masculinity
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11943. ‘Community of Common Destiny’ as Post-Western Regionalism: Rethinking China’s Belt and Road Initiative from a Confucian Perspective

Author:: Raoul Bunskoek and Chih-yu Shih
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: Conventional explanations of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) focus on how the BRI will be in China’s interest, how it will strengthen China’s geopolitical position, or a combination of the two. We argue that such views are limited because they merely interpret the BRI through ‘Western’ IR lenses. This paper ‘re-worlds’ China by using the BRI as a case study to illustrate how in the discursive field(s) of China’s elite, China as a Westphalian nation state, and China as amorphous Tianxia under Confucianism coexist, struggle for recognition, and are interrelated. Consequently, we argue that China, because of the economic miracle it created domestically over the last few decades, is now convinced of its own ‘moral superiority’, and ready to export its self-perceived ‘benevolence’ abroad. In this light, we read the BRI to be undergirded by a combination of ‘Western’ and Confucian values, suggesting a post-Western/post-Chinese form of regionalism.
Topic:: International Trade and Finance, Infrastructure, Hegemony, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Regionalism
Political Geography:: China and Asia

11944. Challenging International Relations’ Conceptual Constraints: The International and Everyday Life across Borders in Southern Africa

Author:: Karen Smith
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Journal Article
Journal:: Uluslararasi Iliskiler
Institution:: International Relations Council of Turkey (UİK-IRCT)
Abstract:: One of the critiques of International Relations (IR) is that the discipline’s discursive boundaries are particularly rigid and continue to be shaped and maintained by dominant Western-centric concepts and discourses. This paper explores the apparent dichotomy between how concepts like ‘the international’ are interpreted by IR scholars and the experiences of ordinary people on which these concepts are imposed. How people engage with borders will be used as an illustration, with borders being regarded by IR scholars as constituting important boundaries that are essential to the field’s understanding of the world as consisting of neatly separated sovereign, territorial states. Two examples that highlight the arbitrary nature of national borders in Africa draw these assumptions into question and suggest that defining what does or does not constitute the international is, in reality, much more complex than suggested by the theoretical abstractions found in standard IR texts.
Topic:: International Relations, Sovereignty, International Relations Theory, and Borders
Political Geography:: Africa and Southern Africa

11945. Assisting Uzbekistan's parliament with specific issues pertaining to Uzbekistan's WTO accession process

Author:: Iljir Baftijari, André-Philippe Ouellet, and Ayong Lim
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: This Memorandum is prepared to guide the Beneficiary through Uzbekistan’s accession process to the World Trade Organization (hereinafter WTO). Uzbekistan’s accession process began in December 1994 but remained dormant until July 2020. Now, the Uzbek government has expressed enthusiasm for pursuing accession to the WTO. The Memorandum offers a general overview of the accession process and addresses specific questions relating to Uzbekistan’s WTO accession. The findings in this Memorandum are based largely on comparative research of recent WTO accessions with a focus on the WTO members in the Eurasian region. We have reviewed the documents submitted during Eurasian WTO members’ accession process, along with the academic sources discussing such accessions. We also analysed Uzbekistan’s current trade relationships to evaluate the pros and cons of Uzbekistan’s accession to the WTO. We likewise analysed the considerations pertaining to EAEU membership by focusing on other WTO members in the region. Finally, to analyse the potential changes to two laws submitted by the Beneficiary with regards to its accession process. We thus have reviewed the two Uzbek acts against the backdrop of: WTO Covered Agreements, the WTO Checklist for accessions, and other amended legislation of members that recently acceded to the WTO accessions for consistency
Topic:: International Law, International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Trade, WTO, and Parliamentarism
Political Geography:: Uzbekistan

11946. Assessing national laws for the implementation of CITES

Author:: Pascal Blickle, Angela Min Yi Hou, and Laura Störi
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: This TradeLab project analyses the domestic legislation of 14 developing countries in implementing the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora (CITES). The present memo summarises the main findings across the 14 Parties. This memo finds that most assessed Parties have implemented the CITES' core requirements, and recommendations provided in the resolutions of the Conference of the Parties (CoP). The project identifies a minority of three African countries for which the CITES Secretariat may wish to review their Category 1 status. These Parties fall short of all or several of the following elements: they failed to appropriately designate Management and Scientific Authorities by law, circumscribe the Authorities' tasks and responsibilities, or – by exclusively regulating native species – appear not to comprehensively cover species listed in the Convention's three Appendices.
Topic:: Environment, International Trade and Finance, Science and Technology, Trade, Ecology, and Biology
Political Geography:: Africa and Global Focus

11947. Social clauses in trade agreements: implications and action points for the private sector in developing countries

Author:: Anna Liz Thomas, Jarrod Suda, and Gaia Grasselli
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: Since the 1990s, more free trade agreements have come to include social clauses, which make reference to domestic and international labour standards. As this international legal web continues to grow, so too will the questions and concerns from employers and businesses. This Tradelab report, for the International Organisation of Employers, provides practical guidance for those employers and businesses. It does so by taking the diverse array of actors, the tensions within, and the opportunities set forth by free trade agreements and elaborating upon them using three case studies.
Topic:: International Political Economy, International Trade and Finance, Treaties and Agreements, Labor Issues, Free Trade, Trade, International Business, and Labor Market
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11948. How to rein in fossil fuel subsidies ? Towards a New WTO Regime

Author:: Simon Happersberger, Eleanor Mateo, and Selcukhan Ünekbas
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: Centre for Trade and Economic Integration, The Graduate Institute (IHEID)
Abstract:: Fossil fuel subsidies have negative consequences on the climate change, public budgets and and the transition to an environmentally friendly economy. Nevertheless, governments do not keep up with their commitments to phase out fossil fuel subsidies but misallocate again COVID-19 recovery funds in fossil fuel subsidies. This article provides an analysis of the current obstacles for phasing out fossil fuel subsidies and the potential of the WTO to advance a reform on fossil fuel subsidies. It argues that the WTO can contribute to a fossil fuel subsidies reform by its technical expertise in regulating subsidies, by its broad membership and by its institutional setting. Under the current framework of the ASCM, WTO member can use existing mechanisms, such as the TPRM, to increase transparency in the short term and facilitate discussions on the scope of subsidies while mitigating impacts on vulnerable groups or sectors. This would provide the ground for governments to work towards a new and ambitious agreement to stop producer fossil fuels subsidies and phase out consumer fossil fuels subsidies in the mid-to-long-term. However, the phase out of consumer subsidies needs to be carefully designed and embedded, to avoid unintended consequences on energy access and vulnerable households.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, International Trade and Finance, Natural Resources, Trade, Fossil Fuels, COVID-19, WTO, and Ecology
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11949. Risk-Limiting Audits: A Guide for Global Use

Author:: Erica Shein and Alexandra Brown
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:: Contentious elections are a stress test for governments. Trust is hard won, easily lost and very difficult to restore. Election audits can enhance voters’ confidence in the results, if they are grounded in the law and performed by well-trained officials, and follow a predictable, transparent and observable process. A new guide from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) focuses on the risk-limiting audit (RLA), a type of post-election tabulation audit that relies on statistical evidence to confirm that the election outcome is correct. Compared to other types of audits, RLAs can be more effective and efficient. The U.S. has been the primary laboratory for RLA testing, with more than 60 piloted and 10 states currently requiring or allowing them. A long-time partner of election administrators around the world, IFES is dedicated to expanding the range of tools available to reinforce confidence in the electoral process and ensure that outcomes reflect the will of the voters. Risk-Limiting Audits: A Guide for Global Use considers how RLAs could have global application and utility – particularly to build trust in election results. The guide provides a basic framework for testing RLAs in diverse contexts by outlining foundational prerequisites and operational, legal and regulatory considerations. IFES will continue to refine and expand on this primer as new findings emerge.
Topic:: Elections, Risk, and Audit
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11950. Electoral Rights of Environmentally Displaced Persons

Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Working Paper
Institution:: International Foundation for Electoral Systems
Abstract:: Environmental disasters such as fires, droughts, floods, hurricanes and rising sea levels displace more and more people each year. According to the University of Oxford, the scale of displacement related to climate change is difficult to forecast but has been “estimated at between 50 and 200 million people by 2050, mostly in developing countries.” Climate change, other environmental crises and migration resulting from environmental displacement increase the likelihood of insecurity and conflict – and put democratic rights at risk. A new paper from the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, Electoral Rights of Environmentally Displaced Persons, examines these questions and provides recommendations for election management bodies, governments, international organizations, political parties, the media, civil society organizations and displaced persons. Environmental challenges can exacerbate pre-existing vulnerabilities, including marginalization due to race, gender, disability and other identity factors. Widely ratified international treaties and resolutions obligate the state to provide accessible electoral processes, including special measures for women, persons with disabilities, youth, Indigenous peoples and racial and other minorities who may be at increased risk of marginalization. They also are critical agents to address the consequences of climate change. Electoral Rights of Environmentally Displaced Persons emphasizes how environmental challenges can exacerbate pre-existing vulnerabilities, including marginalization due to race, gender, disability and other identity factors. Displaced persons are key stakeholders. Those most affected by environmental problems need to be able to vote, run for office and engage with candidates and elected representatives to influence agendas, challenge policies and hold governments accountable. Political participation is particularly important in integrating them into their new environments to avoid conflict with host communities. Displaced persons can also bring skills, insights and talents that benefit their new communities.
Topic:: Climate Change, Environment, Elections, Displacement, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11951. Georgia’s Fertile Crescent: Marneuli Municipality

Author:: Aleksandre Kvakhadze
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: The recent Covid19 pandemic has disrupted Georgia’s economy and social life. Among the regions suffering most from these disruptions is Marneuli municipality. During the first wave in the spring of 2020, the Georgian authorities introduced a strict lockdown in Marneuli and Bolnisi municipalities. Several weeks of lockdown resulted in local farmers coming out in protest at being unable to sell their agricultural goods, an event which attracted the attention of the Georgian media. Other affairs in Marneuli that have received extensive media coverage are tensions or violent acts accompanying electoral campaigns, and the series of bride kidnappings and arranged marriages occurring in the rural communities of the region. The remainder of regional developments tend to be neglected by the national media, meaning wider Georgian society knows little about the social, political and cultural aspects of the region. This limited knowledge creates fertile soil for the forming of various stereotypes and clichés about the local multiethnic population. In fact, Marneuli municipality has been witnessing very dynamic ethno-political processes of late. Moreover, the region has big potential for further economic development, and a unique cultural heritage accommodating different ethnicities, among them Azerbaijanis, Georgians, Armenians, Greeks, as well as several religious communities. Marneuli also represents an important regional transport junction connecting Georgia with Azerbaijan and Armenia.
Topic:: Agriculture, Economics, Rural, Economic Development, COVID-19, and Municipalities
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Caucasus, and Georgia

11952. The Russian Northern Fleet – Extended Status and Geopolitical Ambitions

Author:: Giorgi Surmava
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: On December 21, 2020, by Decree #803 of the President of the Russian Federation, the Northern Fleet became the only one throughout the history of Russia to have the authority of a military district. In particular, the decree states that in order to ensure the integrity and inviolability of the territory of the Russian Federation, the Northern Fleet should be considered a strategic-territorial interdisciplinary union of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation which has the tasks of a military district. The Northern Fleet is responsible for the largest territorial zone of Russia. This territory is mostly an ice desert which has strategic importance for Russia. It runs along the North Sea Route which is 7,300 nautical miles from Yokohama to Rotterdam (11,200 nautical miles through the Indian Ocean). In addition, this territory contains a large supply of hydrocarbons and other mineral or marine resources. The shorter lines between the US and Russian strategic missiles and their intended targets also pass through this area.
Topic:: Natural Resources, Military Affairs, Geopolitics, and Navy
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Georgia

11953. On Total Defense

Author:: Giorgi Surmava
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Recently, the world has faced new threats and challenges which have revitalized "total defense," somewhat forgotten after the collapse of the Soviet Union and the Socialist bloc. Russia's military activities (in Georgia, Ukraine, Syria) and other challenges have made some states rethink this concept and total defense has once again become a topical issue. In general, in its essence, total defense is not a novelty - the Great Patriotic War waged by the Soviet Union was an example of mobilizing all of the available resources of the state to win the war. However, the challenges, threats and conceptual approaches of the Cold War period and, especially, of the first decade of this century significantly differ from that of the previous ones. During the Cold War, European countries, especially northern states, gained some experience in total defense and developed new approaches to this concept. Their experience was shared by the Baltic countries which later developed their own methods. Recently, due to the current situation, the issue of a comprehensive approach to security has become topical in Northern Europe; it is based on the doctrine of total defense developed during the Cold War and combines military and non-military components of national security. A multifaceted approach to security is a way to maintain the resilience of the state and society in the event of external pressure and war. It also implies the provision of the best possible environment for the operation of the armed forces. Along with the traditional approach, this involves creating additional capabilities to respond to threats that were hard to perceive in the past (e.g., cyber threats).
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, History, Crisis Management, and Soviet Union
Political Geography:: Europe, Eurasia, Georgia, and Singapore

11954. The Harmonization of Russian and Abkhazian legislations and Its Significance for the Abkhazian Society and Official Tbilisi

Author:: Aleksandre Kvakhadze
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: On November 25, 2020, a document titled "Plan of measures for the formation of a common socio-economic space between the Russian Federation and Abkhazia" was published on the government websites of the Russian Federation and internet resources belonging to the unrecognized Abkhazia. The document was signed by Aslan Bzhania, the de facto president of Abkhazia, Alexander Ankvab, the prime minister, and Dimitri Kozak, the deputy head of the Russian presidential administration. The document consists of 45 paragraphs and covers issues such as customs and tax legislation, energy, healthcare, education, social security, economy and real estate. Alongside every paragraph in the document, the relevant responsible agency and the estimated years of its implementation is indicated. Most of the agreement provisions entail the harmonization of the legislations of Russia and Abkhazia. This document is a logical continuation of the recognition of Abkhazia's sovereignty by Russia in 2008, and the subsequent agreements. Notable among these agreements is the 2014 "Alliance and Integration Agreement", which, among many other clauses, includes the transfer of command of Abkhazia's de facto armed forces to the Russian General Staff. The aforementioned document was met with mixed assessment in Abkhazian political circles and media. Inal Khashig, a journalist and editor-in-chief of the “Chegemskaya Pravda” newspaper, positively assesses the prospect of an increase in pensions and budget salaries under the agreement, but is wary of a number of points in the document.
Topic:: Energy Policy, Government, Governance, Legislation, and Society
Political Geography:: Russia, Caucasus, Georgia, and Abkhazia

11955. Security Review: Black Sea Security

Author:: Giorgi Surmava, Zurab Batiashvili, David Batashvili, and Nika Petriashvili
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: The following anthology is dedicated to the Black Sea security situation, an issue that drew particularly focused attention following the illegal annexation of Crimea by Russia, when the Kremlin began rapid militarization of the peninsula, while also strengthening its military capabilities in the entire Black Sea basin. The Russian-Ukrainian War was soon followed by the active intervention of Russia in the Syrian conflict, further emphasizing the importance of the Black Sea, as it was precisely through the Black Sea that Russia aided hostilities in Syria and established communication lines with a Russian naval base there. Russia's active engagement in the Black Sea precipitated increased NATO interest towards the region. In recent years, NATO experts have been actively discussing the so-called "Black Sea dimension", that is, the need to develop a new strategy for the region which reflects the improved capabilities of NATO and its individual member states in the Black Sea, forging closer ties with local partners, increasing visits of naval vessels to the Sea, and resisting Russian military domination in general. The exacerbation of the situation in the Black Sea is a significant challenge for Turkey, in particular. The Montreux Convention grants Turkey a special role, which it is trying to maintain, and yet the Russian aggressive policy in the region cannot but trouble it. What role can Georgia play in this situation? What challenges or opportunities does the return of the Black Sea to the strategic map of the world bring for Georgia? This anthology presents the views of four experts from the Rondeli Foundation: General Giorgi Surmava reviews the military capabilities of the Black Sea countries; the Turkish perspective is introduced by Zurab Batiashvili; David Batashvili discusses the Russian point of view; while Alex Petriashvili deliberates the Western approach and the role of Georgia.
Topic:: Security, Military Affairs, Conflict, and Annexation
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Crimea, and Black Sea

11956. Security Review: Russia-Ukraine Confrontation

Author:: Giorgio Bilanishvili, Zurab Batiashvili, Nika Petriashvili, and Giorgi Surmava
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: After the occupation and annexation of Crimea in 2014, the epicenter of hostilities shifted to eastern Ukraine, specifically to the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The Russian-speaking population was not loyal to Kyiv even before that but the events in Crimea and the Russian assistance invigorated the local separatists who, along with adventurers backed by the regular Russian troops, managed to gain control over parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. The fighting turned out to be quite bloody and long lasting. There were large casualties on both sides, including civilians. Coupled with a high-profile incident of the downing of a passenger plane, it caused a wide international reverberation and world interest in resolving the conflict. The efforts of the leading OSCE countries had led to a certain agreement and the cessation of intense hostilities by September 2014. A quadripartite agreement (Germany, France, Russia, Ukraine) was achieved on the separation of the parties and a ceasefire. The line of contact was divided into sectors and precincts where a group of OSCE military observers began to monitor the “silence” regime. Since then, the intensity and scale of the hostilities have been significantly reduced. However, every now and then the situation would worsen which was followed by a new agreement on a ceasefire and the establishment of a “silence” regime. It should be noted that since March 2021, the number of incidents has increased dramatically. At the same time, regular Russian troops began to gather along Ukraine's eastern borders and Crimea.
Topic:: International Relations, National Security, Military Affairs, Conflict, Separatism, and Annexation
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Ukraine, Eastern Europe, and Crimea

11957. After the Karabakh War: Key Issues of Politics and Security

Author:: Aleksandre Kvakhadze
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: As a result of the 40-day war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Azerbaijan established control over certain areas of the former Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Region and seven adjacent districts. In particular, after this war, the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan fully extends to the districts of Jabrail, Fizuli, Zangilan, Qubadli, Aghdam, and Kalbajar, while control over the Lachin district is only partial, excluding the highway connecting Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, the so called Lachin corridor. Azerbaijan also controls most of the Hadrut and Shusha districts, and a small part of the Martuni and Askeran districts. According to the ceasefire agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Azerbaijani cargo will be able to enter Nakhchivan through the Armenian territory, while Armenia will be supplied from Russia via Azerbaijan. After the end of hostilities between the parties, the processes in the region continue to develop dynamically. Tensions have been mounting along the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border since May 2021, in particular in the vicinity of the Black Lake. In the following publication, we review the new political status-quo in the region and the Azerbaijani initiatives in the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
Topic:: Security, Politics, Treaties and Agreements, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Eurasia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

11958. On the New National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation

Author:: Giorgio Bilanishvili
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: On June 2, 2021, the new National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation was approved. It is a guiding document for Russia's security policy planning process; however, as a public document, it also has a significant political implication as it is saturated with political messages reflecting Russia's position on various important issues. Russia's new National Security Strategy is the fifth such document. The first document, which was approved as early as in 1997 by then President of Russia, B. Yeltsin, was called the Concept of National Security. At the beginning of 2000, the decree on the amendments to this document was signed by V. Putin who, at the time, was only the acting president of the Russian Federation. Afterwards, at a meeting of the Russian State Council in September 2008, then President, D. Medvedev, declared the need to develop a new strategy. It should be noted that this session was officially dedicated to the "conflict in South Ossetia." As a result, the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation, which was supposed to be active up until 2020, was approved in May 2009; however, this strategy did not last as far as 2020 - in late 2015, it was replaced by a new national security strategy developed by Russia after the annexation of Crimea and the armed aggression in eastern Ukraine. These events created a whole new reality which also strained relations between Russia and the West, eventually reflected in the strict tone towards the West in the 2015 National Security Strategy. As for the National Security Strategy, it was developed in accordance with the requirements of the Federal Law on Strategic Planning in the Russian Federation adopted in 2014. According to this law, the National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation must be adjusted every six years. A new National Security Strategy was developed and approved on July 2, 2021, precisely in line with the requirement of this six-year period of the law.
Topic:: International Relations, National Security, and Politics
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, Georgia, Crimea, and Russian Federation

11959. Afghanistan – Opportunities and Challenges for the Russian Federation

Author:: Giorgio Bilanishvili
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Lately, the discussions about a possible weakening of US influence in international politics has become more frequent. Parallel to this, there is talk about the activation of Russia and, especially, China in this regard with their influence growing on the international stage. The increasing confrontation between these two countries and the United States has also become one of the most pressing matters. Given all of this, it is now stated more frequently that the world order is changing and a new multi-polar international system is being formed which will be followed by the redistribution of the spheres of influence in the world, leading to increased roles played by China and Russia. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan is considered to be a development of such importance that it could influence the aforementioned international processes and, therefore, commands special attention in that regard as well. Apart from this, the political and security situation in Afghanistan concerns a multitude of states which includes the great powers of the region such as India, China, Russia, Iran and Turkey that play important roles regionally or globally. The interests of these countries, including with regard to Afghanistan, converge in certain cases while diverging in others. At the moment, it is largely unclear how the relations of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan created by the Taliban may develop with its neighbors. Experts assess the prospects of Afghan-Indian and Afghan-Iranian relations especially unfavorably. The return of the Taliban in Afghanistan’s leadership is also important in terms of international security. In this regard, the main cause of concern is the threat of the activation of international terrorism. All of the things mentioned above comprise an incomplete list of the important aspects of the current situation in Afghanistan which, as a whole, create a complex and multi-dimensional picture. For Russia, therefore, Afghanistan also does not have a single dimension. It is, on the one hand, a certain opportunity for the Russian Federation in order for it to bolster influence on the international arena. At the same time, however, the threats that have increased in Afghanistan given the new realities naturally cannot stay outside of Moscow’s attention.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, Conflict, and International System
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, China, South Asia, United States of America, and Russian Federation

11960. US Foreign Policy Challenges and Achievements in the First 8 Months of Joseph Biden's Presidency

Author:: Nika Petriashvili
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: September 20 will mark exactly eight months since Joseph Biden took over the presidency of the United States. The purpose of our review is to assess the activities of his administration in the international political arena, which obviously cannot be understood in isolation from the ongoing processes within the country and the decisions made in domestic politics. When assessing the steps taken by President Biden and his administration in international relations, we must first look at the legacy he inherited from the previous president and his administration. This will be one of the primary elements based upon which we will assess the performance of the 46th President of the United States and his administration. To put it very modestly, the situation that Joseph Biden faced inside the country and abroad after Donald Trump was really not simple: A polarized society within the United States and a complicated relationship with international partners. Naturally, all this was further complicated by the very difficult epidemiological state in the country precipitated by the pandemic, and the significantly deteriorating socio-economic situation. Clearly, the citizens of the United States expected the Joseph Biden administration, first and foremost, to deal quickly and effectively with the major domestic challenges. Tensions reached a peak in American society after radical and extremist groups penetrated the Capitol on January 6. As a result, Joseph Biden's main message and first steps were aimed at calming and uniting society within the country. Of course, it would not be right to discuss these dramatic processes only in a domestic context. The tensions within the country have been closely monitored by both US partners, including Georgia, as well as its rivals and enemies. We cannot really say that Joe Biden was able to heal the American public during these 8 months, as he promised in his inaugural speech, but the situation has calmed down somewhat, and the processes have indeed shifted towards a quieter and more professional course.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Politics, and Joe Biden
Political Geography:: Afghanistan and United States of America

11961. The Interests of Turkey and Iran in Afghanistan: Threats and Challenges

Author:: Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:: 09-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: In the summer of 2021, as the U.S. withdrew from Afghanistan, the balance of power in the country changed rapidly, and by August 15, the Taliban was able to capture the capital, Kabul, almost without a fight. On September 7, the Taliban formed a new "government" steered by Sharia Law. The Taliban also renamed the country, and, according to them, Afghanistan is now called the "Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan." There are no women or members of the Shiite minority in the new government.Of the 33 members of the still-incomplete government, only three belong to ethnic minorities. Interestingly, the four new "ministers" of the country are former inmates of Guantanamo Bay, having served time there for organizing terrorist activities. Sirajuddin Haqqani, the "Minister of Internal Affairs" of the new "government" of Afghanistan, is still wanted by the FBI on the same charges. A reward of $5 million is being offered for his capture. There is already the threat of a humanitarian catastrophe (food shortages), and instability (internal strife) in Afghanistan. Tens of thousands of Afghans are fleeing their homes, many of them heading to Iran and Turkey. This poses a number of threats and challenges to these countries, especially since they have their own interests in Afghanistan.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Government, Taliban, and Humanitarian Crisis
Political Geography:: Afghanistan, Iran, South Asia, Turkey, and Middle East

11962. The Problem of the Growth of Georgia's Public Debt During the Economic Crisis Under the Covid-19 PAndemic

Author:: Vladimer Papava and Vakhtang Charaia
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: The COVID-19 pandemic and the global economic crisis caused by it presented the world with numerous severe problems. This economic crisis will henceforth also be referred to as the “coronomic crisis” which is based on the concept of “coronomics.” This term was created through the combination of the two words corona and economics and introduced in order to draw attention to the problem of the influence of the spread of the coronavirus on economies. One of the problems exacerbated by the coronomic crisis is the quick and significant growth of the public debt (the sum of the government’s domestic and external debts). It must be pointed out that according to standards, the overall external debt of a country is divided into several components: government, central bank, commercial banks, company loans and other sectors. The traditional question is as follows: should certain states fear the growth of the public debt despite the fact that the interest rate of the loans may not be particularly high? In a standard case, the answer to this question is yes;4 however, certain specific issues require clarification. For example, the proven indicator of public debt – its ratio to the gross domestic product (GDP),5 does not allow for the comparison of specific countries with one another, let alone being an impeccable measure of their success or failure. The analysis of a state’s economic capabilities is absolutely necessary as debts are taken both by rich as well as poor countries during extreme difficulties (like a pandemic) and economic advancement alike (for example, for infrastructural development).
Topic:: GDP, COVID-19, Public Debt, and Economic Crisis
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Georgia

11963. Baku Parade Whispers Geopolitical Complexities in the South Caucasus

Author:: Rahim Rahimov
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan attended a military parade in the Azerbaijani capital of Baku on December 10 to celebrate Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in the war over the Karabakh region that ended with the Russia-brokered armistice on November 9-10. The Russian historian, Andrey Zubov, describes the Baku parade as an occasion “rather to celebrate the birth of a new geopolitical alliance than the victory over Armenia”1 . Following the parade, Russia imposed a ban on tomato imports from Azerbaijan in its flagship manner and Russian peacekeepers attempted to do something around the town of Shusha in Karabakh resembling what they have done in Georgia: “borderization”. Azerbaijani state TV, other media outlets and public figures widely and explicitly condemned such behavior of the Russian peacekeepers as a jealous response to the parade demonstration of Armenia’s Russian-made weapons and military equipment captured by the Azerbaijani armed forces or destroyed using Turkish-made Bayraktar drones . Erdogan and the Azerbaijani President, Ilham Aliyev, watched Turkish soldiers march alongside with Azerbaijanis on the central streets of Baku to the joy of local residents who took to the streets despite the COVID-19 related restrictions in order to salute them. This scene shows a major Russian weakness vis-àvis Turkey in Azerbaijan. Unlike Moscow, whose perception in Azerbaijan is controversial, Ankara enjoys nation-wide support. Recently leaked Russian secret files reveal that it is much more difficult for Moscow to develop proRussian civil society organizations and soft power instruments in Azerbaijan than even in staunchly pro-Western Georgia.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Iran, Turkey, France, Georgia, and South Caucasus

11964. Artificial Intelligence and National Security

Author:: Levan Bodzashvili
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: The purpose of the following article is, on the one hand, to introduce the current trends in the utilization of artificial intelligence in the field of national security and defense and, on the other hand, to initiate a research discussion in order to determine the necessity and the feasibility of the use of artificial intelligence for small countries like Georgia. We will also seek to define its importance at the strategic level in terms of ensuring integration and military compatibility. The article also incorporates strategic initiatives of a recommendatory nature which should be discussed in the security sphere as well as at the level of research organizations and the government. Artificial intelligence (AI) is the fastest growing field of technology which is already one of the top priorities in the national security strategies of most countries. The reason for this is that artificial intelligence technologies can alter the ways war is conducted.1 It enables defense, military, cyber security, intelligence and counterintelligence, information and cyber operations, logistics, manufacturing and strategic management/control of autonomous military vehicles. It has already been used by the United States, Israel, China, Russia and many other countries. Artificial intelligence also plays an important role in anticipating and planning national and geopolitical events such as, for example, the program of the director of the United States Intelligence Agency (IARPA)2 which conducts constant research in this area as well as more than 140 operational and research projects of the Central Intelligence Agency which use artificial intelligence. An important and also revolutionary project is SAGE3 which was developed by the Universities of Fordham, Stanford and Columbia in conjunction with the Intelligence Agency and which predicts geopolitical events through artificial intelligence-based projections. High-precision algorithms enable the predicting of events which is a crucial factor in reinsuring national security risks and threats.
Topic:: Defense Policy, National Security, Science and Technology, and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11965. "The Great Wall of the Caspian Sea": The Geographic Nature of Russia's Attitudes Towards the Post-Soviet States

Author:: Mariam Mikiashvili
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: As far as the contemporary Russian perspective is concerned, the former Soviet states can be categorized into two geographic groups. The states other than the Baltics, that is. We shall call Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan “the Western Six.” The former Soviet Central Asian countries – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan – shall be included in “the Eastern Five.” The basis of such a grouping is a country’s geographic location vis-à-vis the Caspian Sea. It would be no news to claim that the prevention of the color revolutions and the democratization of the post-Soviet space has always been the fundamental aim of Russia.1 This translates into the objective to preserve the Russia-approved social and political “stability.” However, the specific Russian actions for the maintenance of the “stability” in various post-Soviet states differ fundamentally. In some of them, “stability” is to be ensured by the internal destabilization of a country as well as subversive actions towards a central government, whereas in others the task is implemented through Russia’s constructive approaches towards a central government and state consolidation. So, to what extent are Russia’s attitudes towards a post-Soviet state influenced by the state’s own politics or regime type? What are the places where “central government,” “state” and “regime stability” are synonymous in the eyes of Russia? What does this “stability” even imply and how is it different from simple “authoritarianism,” the most acceptable model of governance to Russia? Would “democratization” be a precise labelling as the alternative to “stability?” Does democratization in every post-Soviet state cause a similar reaction from Russia?
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Democratization, Political stability, Geography, and Post-Soviet Space
Political Geography:: Russia and Caspian Sea

11966. The Three Seas Initiative and Georgia: Perspectives and Challenges

Author:: Grigol Julukhidze
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: The Three Seas Initiative (3SI) aims to strengthen ties in the region of the wider Central Europe (between the Baltic, Adriatic and Black Seas) which creates a solid foundation for economic development in terms of energy, transport, digital communication and the economy. It was established as a forum for cooperation between 12 countries: Austria, Bulgaria, Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, and Hungary. The area comprising the countries belonging to the Three Seas Initiative constitutes almost one-third of the total area of the European Union. Over 112 million people live there. The region is experiencing stable economic growth and a limited unemployment rate. The priority for the 3SI is to build a coherent and well-integrated infrastructure in Central Europe which will render the possibility to make up for development lags resulting from historical events. As a result, the infrastructural and economic inequalities of the common European market will be reduced and this will limit the division of the EU into less and more developed areas of integration. The most important added value of the Initiative is the assurance of political support at the highest level of state authorities for investments which have so far been a neglected field of cooperation between the Central European countries. The Three Seas is, therefore, pro-European and complementary to the existing regional cooperation formats (Ministerstwo Spraw Zagranicznych, 2020).
Topic:: Energy Policy, Communications, Infrastructure, and Economic Development
Political Geography:: Poland, Lithuania, Estonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Georgia, Croatia, Latvia, Austria, Czech Republic, Slovenia, and Slovakia

11967. The Regional Security Dynamics of the South Caucasus After the 2020 Karabakh War

Author:: Benyamin Poghosyan
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: The 2020 Karabakh war has significantly shifted the geopolitics of the South Caucasus. Armenia suffered a tough defeat while the non-recognized Republic of Artsakh (Republic of Nagorno Karabakh) lost almost 80 percent of its territories. Azerbaijan won a decisive victory and took not only territories outside of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region (NKAR) but 30 percent of NKAR itself. The November 10 trilateral statement signed by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia not only stopped the war in Karabakh but ushered in a new era in regional geopolitics.1 The key features of the new status quo are the increased role of Russia and Turkey and the significant reduction of Western involvement. However, the South Caucasus is far away from stability and, most probably, volatility will continue. We will seek to analyze the main interests of the key regional and external players and what may play out in a short/mid-term perspective.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, War, Geopolitics, Political stability, and Conflict
Political Geography:: Russia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Nagorno-Karabakh

11968. New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty Between the US And Russia

Author:: Giorgi Surmava
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: On January 26, 2021, during a phone conversation between the President of the United States, Joseph Biden, and the President of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin, a decision was confirmed by the parties to extend the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START, CHB-3) without any preconditions for five more years from February 5, 2021 to February 5, 2026 after which the sides exchanged diplomatic notes. New START was the last treaty still in force with regard to nuclear armaments as the United States left the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) under the Trump administration. At the same time, the Trump administration was also against extending New START without changes as it was set to expire in February 2021. Russia, on the other hand, was opposed to any kind of changes to this treaty. In a very short while after Biden’s arrival to power, the treaty was extended by five years without any changes. What was the reason for this decision? Why was the prior presidential administration against this and why did the new one make efforts to achieve an agreement in a short period of time? What can we expect to happen next? These are the questions that we will attempt to answer in this publication.
Topic:: Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, and Treaties and Agreements
Political Geography:: Russia and United States of America

11969. How Nato Enlargement Strengthens the Security of the Euro-Atlantic Region: The Case of the Baltic States

Author:: Megi Benia
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Since the end of the Cold War, with five waves of its enlargement, NATO remains committed to the open door policy. Even though these decisions have significantly strengthened the security of the Alliance, skepticism towards NATO enlargement stays on the agenda of debates in academic and policy circles. After regaining independence from the Soviet Union, each of the Baltic States clearly stated their desire to become members of European and EuroAtlantic organizations. In 2004, each of these states became full-fledged members of the North Atlantic Alliance. However, similar to the current situation, the accession of the Baltic States was not widely accepted in the academic and political circles of the time. While the Clinton administration did commit to “keep the membership door open” for the Baltics, neither official bodies nor professionals viewed the decision as a positive sign.1 Even George Kennan had made his case against the Baltic entrance into NATO underlining that historically these nations had been “part of Russia longer than they were part of anything else.”2 Despite all of the difficulties, the Baltic nations joined the Alliance and thus proved that this enlargement and the open door policy overall is a guarantor of the security of the Euro-Atlantic region. Therefore, using the example of the Baltic States, the paper will try to emphasize the importance of NATO enlargement for peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region. The paper will demonstrate three main areas where the Alliance benefited the most from this wave of enlargement: a) enhanced peace and stability in the Euro-Atlantic region by the increased number of democratic, economically sustainable countries in Europe; b) the increased defensibility of NATO’s eastern flank and c) the increased ability to strengthen NATO’s resilience towards non-traditional security threats.
Topic:: International Relations, Security, NATO, and Alliance
Political Geography:: Baltic States

11970. The Montreux Convention and Its Importance for Georgia

Author:: Zurab Batiashvili
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: The Montreux Convention signed on July 20, 1936 strictly regulates the presence of naval warships of non-Black Sea nations (including the United States) in the Black Sea, limiting their aggregate tonnage (thereby limiting their number), their maximum period of stay within the Black Sea and so on. Such a regime creates a problem of access by Western powers to the Black Sea which negatively influences Georgia’s security environment. However, much has changed in the Black Sea after the Convention was signed – the Second World War took place, the Cold War was concluded, the Soviet Union collapsed and new states arose in its place – Russia, Ukraine and Georgia while Romania and Bulgaria became member states of NATO, Russia annexed Crimea, Turkey distanced itself from the West and so forth. In such conditions, a document signed in the 1930s remains a militarypolitical anachronism, unable to address new requirements and realities. That said, the issue of reviewing it remains problematic as it depends on numerous factors.
Topic:: Security, Foreign Policy, History, Military Affairs, and Trade
Political Geography:: Russia, Turkey, Ukraine, and Georgia

11971. Modus Operandi of the Largest Russian Cyber-Intelligence Operation of Recent Times – Attack On Solarwinds

Author:: Giorgio Uzarashvili
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: The 2020 attack on SolarWinds is one of the largest cyber-intelligence campaigns in US history which inflicted significant damage on agencies such as the US Department of Defense (DoD), the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA).1 Incidentally, SolarWinds is a US-registered company that provides a wide range of IT-related services to the private and public sectors, including tools used for the remote management of the network’s infrastructure.2 Later, in April of this year, the attack was officially attributed to the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (СВР - Служба Внешней Разведки). Its consequences were severe not only due to the fact that the attacker, with high probability, gained access to at least part of the information held by the above-mentioned US agencies, but also primarily for the demonstrative effect of this operation. In particular, the attacker demonstrated that no one is protected against Russian cyber-intelligence actors, including the agencies directly in charge of ensuring the information security of the national critical infrastructure throughout the country. Consequently, the attack on SolarWinds negatively affected the US not only in terms of security, more specifically cyber security, but it also poses a significant challenge to its reputation. Namely, this incident questions whether or not US security forces have highly qualified personnel and appropriate technical equipment to protect significant information assets and prevent similar attacks. Moreover, there is a threat that this precedent will encourage similar actions by other hostile actors against the US in the future, primarily China and Iran.
Topic:: Security, Intelligence, Science and Technology, and Cybersecurity
Political Geography:: Russia and United States of America

11972. New Silk Road - China’s Grand Strategy and Georgia

Author:: Gvantsa Chachanidze
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: One Belt, One Road is no doubt the most ambitious project of the century. The initiative was first announced by China’s President Xi Jinping in 2013. He said that China founded a massive infrastructure program that would involve 140 states and 30 international organizations. Xi’s grandiose ambition is to build a global network of infrastructure to ease commerce, investment and connectivity with China. Originally, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) consisted of the Economic and Maritime Silk Road. Eventually the Digital Silk Road, the Belt and Road Space Information Corridor and the Health Silk Road were added to the list. The BRI helps China gain economic advantage by sending goods to European and other foreign markets cheaper and faster than competitors while also ensuring low-cost access to natural resources via BRI corridors. In fact, the shortage of natural resources is a huge issue for both Chinese economics and society. China wants to establish a strong and wealthy society by 2049 by increasing competitiveness and ensuring stable energy imports. The New Silk Road has been continuously portrayed by China’s authorities as an economic cooperation project based on a “win-win” collaboration that promotes global peace and development.
Topic:: Markets, Infrastructure, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Economic Cooperation
Political Geography:: China and Asia

11973. The Sources of Russian Misconduct

Author:: Giorgi Badridze
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: One of the fundamental problems of international relations is that people from the countries whose political system is based on the rule of law and human rights often do not understand the logic of conduct of authoritarian regimes. Incidentally, this is equally the case with the relatively conservative and completely liberal observers. Such misunderstanding has, on many occasions, produced catastrophic outcomes. The most vivid illustration of this is the 1930’s policy of appeasement. Despite the facts that Nevil Chamberlain was motivated by the noble goal of averting the war, the wrongful assessment of the Hitler regime brought about the bloodiest war in history. In this paper, I will attempt to evaluate some aspects of Russian foreign policy which, in my humble opinion, are misunderstood in the West and have resulted in serious complications for Russia’s neighbors and the West itself and which continues to represent a clear and present danger. Naturally, I do not intend to diminish the achievements of generations of brilliant diplomats, analysts and political leaders whose wisdom, vision and courage contributed to many triumphs of Western civilization in its struggle with tyrannies. Today, the world needs precisely the type of leaders who would be ready to see the reality that the ideals of human dignity, freedom and democracy are again under threat and that they must be defended.
Topic:: International Relations, Authoritarianism, and Appeasement
Political Geography:: Russia and Eurasia

11974. Achieving Self-Sufficiency in Arms Production to Enhance Defense Capabilities for the Georgian Military

Author:: Tato Kvamladze
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: Some defense economists argue that the full-scale self-sufficiency of the defense industry, which can also be termed defense autarky, may not be necessary for future wars. Due to weapon systems becoming increasingly sophisticated and highly technological, producing these systems requires the growing importation of components and sub-systems for the manufacturing of indigenous and advanced weapons and equipment; even the United States defense contractors import components and sub-systems from many different foreign countries. “The transformation of arms production has created opportunities for many states. Through defense industrial partnerships, recipient states can now exploit foreign component technology and technical knowledge to produce advanced military systems.” Therefore, no country has a comprehensive domestic defense-industrial base (DIB) because all countries rely on technology imports. Even though defense autarky is not necessary, some countries with strong or moderate economies are still trying to develop an autonomous DIB to decrease the influence of arms supplier countries. However, even countries with developed economies have weaknesses in designing, developing and producing advanced weapon systems because they “suffer from shortages of skilled personnel and sufficient scientific and technical infrastructure to pursue breakthroughs and applied research in many critical defense technologies.”
Topic:: Defense Policy, Military Affairs, and Defense Industry
Political Geography:: Eurasia and Georgia

11975. The European Perspective of the Anti-Western Information Warfare

Author:: Erekle Iantbelidze
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: The transfer of the international political reality to a new multi-polar prism makes geopolitics, as one of the directions of interdisciplinary education, more important in the current situation. The development of digital and scientific technologies has moved the phenomenon of the balance of power to a new stage and for a number of states and intergovernmental organizations, the term geopolitics has become the flagship of security strategy, cultural domination and democratic processes. In terms of the new “geopolitical commission,” the action plan of Ursula von der Leyen rests on two main principles – Europe’s climate and digital transition (European Parliament, 2020). Therefore, in the conditions of a war of values, geopolitics and digitalization, technological development has become a super-important component that the European Union is attempting to bring to the forefront as it wrestles with the world’s foremost states (China, India, Russia, Turkey). As the EU’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, stated, Europe must not become a playground for other great powers and it must take the role of a geopolitical leader in the world (Barigazzi, 2019). It must also be pointed out that the geopolitical nature of Europe also envisages the development and gradual expansion of its neighborhood policy. That said, the associated partners within the Eastern Partnership (EaP) format (Moldova, Georgia, Ukraine) have bigger ambitions and goals than the development of the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) and the full implementation of the Association Agreement (AA) (European Commission, 2019).
Topic:: Science and Technology, European Union, Geopolitics, and Free Trade
Political Geography:: Europe

11976. Critical Infrastructure Protection in Europe: Strengthening Resilience Under Article 3 of The Washington Treaty

Author:: Megi Benia
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: Georgian Foundation for Strategic International Studies -GFSIS
Abstract:: NATO is a major military organization responsible for security in the Euro-Atlantic space. Consequently, the current security environment in the world and, especially, in Europe stimulates debates about NATO’s readiness to resist an armed attack. However, these debates are normally held around the Alliance’s Article 5 as a key component of collective defense and in this process, the principles of Article 3 are ignored, something which is a wrong approach. NATO’s Article 3 states that: “In order to more effectively achieve the objectives of this Treaty, the parties, separately and jointly, by means of continuous and effective self-help and mutual aid, will maintain and develop their individual and collective capacity to resist armed attack” (NATO, Resilience and Article 3 2020). Therefore, fulfilling obligations under Article 3 is a crucial part of the organization’s main idea of collective defense as it enables NATO to fulfil the obligations of Article 5. However, one must remember that in today’s unpredictable security situation, “capacity to resist armed attack” (NATO, Resilience and Article 3 2020) means not only military readiness. To be able to deploy rapidly during operations or a potential armed attack, military forces need the support of transport systems, satellite communications and power supplies, etc. However, it is a well-known fact that these systems are highly vulnerable during an attack in both peace and war.
Topic:: Security, NATO, Infrastructure, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Europe and United States of America

11977. How concerning is Bolsonaro’s recent political and military shakeup?

Author:: Ryan C. Berg
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Commentary and Analysis
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: urbulent politics and a deep shakeup in Brasilia have many concerned for the stability of Jair Bolsonaro’s administration. The stampede of ministerial exits started early this week with the resignation of foreign minister Ernesto Araújo. The defense minister followed suit shortly thereafter. By day’s end, six ministers had either resigned or moved to new posts — about one-third of Bolsonaro’s cabinet. Perhaps more concerning than the political overhaul was what transpired one day after the ministerial shakeup: the leadership restructuring within Brazil’s armed forces — occurring, no less, one day before the 57th anniversary of the military coup. The heads of all three major branches — the army, the navy, and the air force — resigned en masse, purportedly over concerns for their independence, handing Bolsonaro the opportunity to handpick their successors. Brazil witnessed something analogous only once before — in 1977, under the turbulent rule of military dictator Ernesto Geisel. This has left some Brazil watchers fretting that an insecure Bolsonaro could be laying the foundations “for his own January 6.”
Topic:: Politics, Military Affairs, Authoritarianism, Democracy, Populism, and Jair Bolsonaro
Political Geography:: Brazil and Latin America

11978. Europe’s last chance: How the EU can (and should) become the indispensable actor in Venezuela’s democratic restoration

Author:: Ryan C. Berg and Jorge González-Gallarza
Publication Date:: 03-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
Abstract:: The EU’s current policy approach toward Venezuela is insufficient to contribute meaningfully to a political transition in the country and protect human rights. Oftentimes, the EU’s policy has been at odds with the US, having permitted unrelated disagreements to cloud its recognition of its strategic interest in a free, prosperous, and democratic Venezuela. The Nicolas Maduro regime’s illicit investment schemes have found fertile ground in the EU at large, with a particular hotspot in Spain. A torrent of investments and acquisitions has allowed corrupt cronies in Maduro’s entourage to engage in unfathomable kleptocracy and stash their ill-gotten gains in the eurozone, vitiating the rule of law in the process. The EU consistently underappreciates the Maduro regime’s multi-faceted security threat, which intersects with and compounds many of the EU’s greatest geostrategic challenges in the post-COVID-19 landscape. China, Cuba, Iran, and Russia are all at once strategic rivals of the EU and enablers of the Maduro regime’s threat to its security. The Joe Biden administration’s commitment to multilateral engagement in Venezuela offers the EU a chance to reclaim transatlantic cooperation and present a common vision for political transition in the country. Beefing up sanctions and developing a coordination mechanism, as well as drumming up humanitarian aid, would constitute serious progress and potentially thrust the EU into the role of indispensable actor in Venezuela’s democratic restoration.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Development, Sanctions, European Union, Democracy, Multilateralism, and Hugo Chavez
Political Geography:: Europe, Latin America, Spain, and Venezuela

11979. The Eastern Partnership: Three dilemmas in a time of troubles

Author:: Bob Deen and Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: In early 2021 a new Eastern Partnership (EaP) Summit will take place between the European Union and the six countries in its eastern neighbourhood: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. After over a decade, the ambitious objectives of the EU’s Eastern Partnership policy to deliver ‘stability, security and prosperity’ to the region remain far from reality. Democratization and good governance reforms have been stalled by vested interests in Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova, while Azerbaijan and Belarus have remained outright autocratic, and the latter faces sustained domestic protests. The EaP faces geopolitical pushback by an increasingly assertive Russian Federation and the region is further affected by multiple protracted and ongoing conflicts, including the recent bitter war over Nagorno-Karabakh. But despite its shortcomings, the EaP is not without successes, especially but not only in the economic sphere. The EU has also managed to keep the door open for conversation, spurred lower-level reform and provided civil society support. As such, the EaP has an important role to play in the policy of the Netherlands towards the region, especially in light of recent requests by the Dutch Parliament to formulate an Eastern Europe strategy. But many thorny questions remain in the run-up to the summit. This report assesses three policy dilemmas that need to be considered by the Netherlands and the European Union in order to make the EaP more effective. First, the EU needs to reconcile its geopolitical interests with its normative aspirations. Second, the added value of the EaP’s multilateral track should be deliberated with consideration of the differentiation in bilateral relations with EaP countries. Third, the EU will need to consider how to deal with protracted conflicts, hybrid threats, and other security challenges in the EaP region.
Topic:: Democratization, Governance, Authoritarianism, Reform, European Union, and Partnerships
Political Geography:: Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Belarus

11980. Turkey’s love-in with Qatar: A marriage of convenience

Author:: Engin Yüksel
Publication Date:: 01-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This report assesses the impact of Turkish-Qatari cooperation between 2002 and 2020 on conflict and geopolitical competition across the Middle East, North Africa, and the Horn of Africa based on close examination of its drivers. The report notes that neither ideological nor economic drivers adequately explain the recent blossoming of Turkish-Qatari relations. Converging political interests and pragmatism offer a more compelling explanation. On the one hand, Turkey aspires to play a regional leadership role and uses its cooperation with Qatar to strengthen its soft power claim to leadership of the Sunni world. On the other hand, Qatar seeks to ensure its territorial and dynastical safety from Saudi Arabia and its allies – the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, and Bahrain (the Quartet) – by working with Turkey, the recent thaw of the Al-Ula declaration notwithstanding. Turkish-Qatari collaboration is therefore best seen as a pragmatic partnership enabled by compatible geopolitical perspectives, particularly regarding the Muslim Brotherhood.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Partnerships, Geopolitics, Conflict, and Muslim Brotherhood
Political Geography:: Turkey, Middle East, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, and United Arab Emirates

11981. A new momentum for EU-Turkey cooperation on migration

Author:: Nienke van Heukelingen
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief considers how to move forward with the (financial element of the) EU-Turkey statement agreed in 2016, under which the first tranche of 3 billion euros will end mid-2021. In order not to reverse the progress achieved and to continue the work on improving the resilience of the 4.1 million refugees in Turkey, there is an urgent need for the European Union and Turkey to agree on a new financial framework. One that builds on the current, generally successful framework – the EU Facility for Refugees in Turkey (FRiT) – but which would divide the burden between Turkey and the EU more equally. Both blocs would, moreover, do well to look into the possibilities of extending the area of cooperation to Idlib. In that area, which is currently under Turkey’s military control, almost three million internally displaced persons (IDPs) currently lack adequate shelter and essentials, which could potentially lead to various displacement scenarios. Neither of those decisions will be easy and will require serious support from all EU member states, but the fact is Turkey remains essential in pursuing the EU’s core interest: preventing another refugee flow into Europe.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Migration, European Union, Refugees, and Borders
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, Middle East, and Syria

11982. Band-aids, not bullets: EU policies and interventions in the Syrian and Iraqi civil wars

Author:: Erwin van Veen and Nancy Ezzeddine
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Engaging in the conflict cycle in other countries to gain outcomes favourable to one’s own interests is akin to playing in the champions league of foreign policy. Doing this effectively and responsibly requires a coherent and full-spectrum political strategy as well as the diplomatic, financial, developmental and military means to deliver it. It is clear from the scope of the security interests articulated in the European Union’s (EU) Global Strategy (2016) and its many associated foreign policy statements that the EU intends to meet these requirements. However, study of EU institutional policies and interventions in the Syrian and Iraqi civil wars highlights that it falls well short of doing so. As a result, EU institutions are not well placed to intervene effectively in high intensity conflicts with existential features such as these two civil wars. With this problem in mind, the core recommendation of the paper is to increase the effectiveness of EU interventions in high-intensity conflicts by institutionalising full-spectrum decision making, policy implementation and force deployment modalities for the EU as a whole, as well as for EU coalitions of the willing. The parallel existence of such tracks will enable the EU to act jointly in conflicts where Member States have more or less compatible foreign policy preferences with matching intensity preferences, and to act in part in conflicts where Member States have more or less compatible foreign policy preferences with a mixed distribution of intensity preferences (like Iraq or arguably Syria). EU foreign policy inaction, including institutional paralysis, will continue to occur where Member States’ foreign policy preferences are largely not compatible and have high-intensity preferences.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, European Union, Military Intervention, Conflict, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Iraq, Europe, Middle East, and Syria

11983. ‘Designed in Ethiopia’ and ‘Made in China’: Sino-Ethiopian technology collaboration in South-South relations

Author:: Jos Meester
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief provides an examination of China’s rise in relation to its African partners. It takes into account geopolitical concerns, but homes in on China’s Belt and Road Initiative, its means of expanding into Africa. It examines the role of the Digital Silk Road in the use of Chinese artificial intelligence and technology transfers on surveillance and the risks of repression. The brief aims to move beyond the politicised narratives surrounding Chinese involvement in Africa by testing them against practical initiatives on the ground. It examines Ethiopia, particularly its burgeoning tech hub known as the ‘Sheba Valley’, in order to understand China’s role in development in African countries. Ethiopia is a critical case because of: the country’s strong relations with China, leading Ethiopia to model its developmental state model on the Chinese one and incentivising civil servants to learn from the Chinese experience; Ethiopia’s attempt to develop its relatively advanced ICT hub (the Sheba Valley) in collaboration with China’s Shenzhen-based ICT hub; Ethiopia’s historically heavy surveillance and repressive practices, in part modelled on China’s practice of prioritising development over democratic reform.
Topic:: International Cooperation, Science and Technology, Geopolitics, Surveillance, Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and Artificial Intelligence
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Ethiopia

11984. Whose Long Arm? Challenges to Understanding Turkish Diaspora Politics

Author:: Christopher Houtkamp and Kars de Bruijne
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This Clingendael policy brief seeks to explain visible manifestations of Turkish politics in European cities. Why does Turkish politics lead to unrest in Rotterdam and Berlin and what institutional mechanisms facilitate this? The brief highlights various drivers, institutional manifestations and historical changes, but also points out that there are a number of uncertainties and questions about the motivations for, and modus operandi of, Turkey’s influence in European societies. These questions are all the more relevant as European policy-makers increasingly seek to take measures in order to curb this. The main argument developed in this brief is that effective policy ‘at home’ (in Europe) will require better knowledge of socio-political developments ‘abroad’ (in Turkey). The first and second parts of this brief, therefore, show how the drivers of Turkish influence on the diaspora have changed over time. The third section highlights how present-day diaspora politics is institutionally anchored in Western Europe. Most of the practical examples in this brief are drawn from the Dutch context, but the dynamics will be familiar to those observing this phenomenon in other Western European countries.
Topic:: Politics, Diaspora, and Institutions
Political Geography:: Europe, Turkey, and Middle East

11985. Between hope and despair: Pastoralist adaptation in Burkina Faso

Author:: Kars de Bruijne and Fransje Molenaar
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This report thus provides an understanding of the causes and drivers fuelling grievances that have sidelined pastoralists. To this end, it unpacks the relationship between pastoralism, conflict, and stability in Burkina Faso. The study finds that pastoralists face structural trends working against them.
Topic:: Agriculture, Development, Pastoralism, and Resilience
Political Geography:: Africa and Burkina Faso

11986. A Transition at Work? The ethnicization of Ethiopia’s informal sector

Author:: Jos Meester and Nancy Ezzeddine
Publication Date:: 02-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The Ethiopian governing regime has defined poverty as the biggest threat to its survival since its inception, and has thus established a top-down developmental state model to drive economic growth that would legitimise its existence. While this model has sustained high GDP growth rates, Ethiopia faces a challenge translating such growth into improved livelihoods. The private sector is weakly developed, and job creation in Ethiopia’s urban centres has not kept pace with population growth or rural-urban migration. Employment in the informal economy has been key to an increasing number of individuals’ livelihoods, yet persistent poverty, inequality and marginalisation is also deepening grievances. The ethnically defined federalist system has created potentially powerful ethnic nationalist constituencies and aligned other previously cross-cutting political cleavages with existing ethnic divides, which result in potentially strong centrifugal forces. The Ethiopian state’s clientelistic approaches to political mobilisation and its claim to legitimacy based on economic growth have equally lost purchase in the face of persistent poverty and marginalisation. With political debate extending beyond previously formalised channels, ethnically based networks are gaining significance. While career perspectives in the formal sector have long been intertwined with the ethnically based political system, such dynamics are becoming increasingly pronounced in the informal sector. The demarcation of boundaries between ethnic groups is becoming more important in the informal sector. While this may help ethnic groupings secure their livelihoods by securing control over various economic sectors and locations, it has reduced inter-group cooperation by eroding cross-cutting social capital and has connected economic grievances with ethnic fault lines. As a result, political tensions between ethnic nationalist groupings increasingly engage substantial urban constituencies, allowing tensions to spill over and exacerbate the broader political strains across the country.
Topic:: Politics, Governance, Ethnicity, and Economic Growth
Political Geography:: Africa and Ethiopia

11987. Henchman, Rebel, Democrat, Terrorist: The YPG/PYD during the Syrian conflict

Author:: Erwin van Veen
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This report analyses the role of the Syrian Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG) and the associated Democratic Union Party (PYD) during the Syrian civil war. The purpose of our research is to obtain a better understanding of the nature, objectives and methods of the YPG/ PYD as a combined paramilitary and rebel force that is involved in a quasi-statebuilding project during an internationalised civil war. We start by examining the critical factors that enabled the swift rise of the YPG: informal arrangements with the Assad regime, support from the Kurdistan Workers’ Party and a pragmatic partnership with the US against Islamic State. This sets the scene for an inquiry into how core YPG strategies to maintain its dominance once it was established – coercive, deal-making, identity and basic service strategies – both shape the group’s behavior and result from its current organization. Finally, we dissect a number of major challenges to future YPG rule, such as its relation with the PKK, intra-Kurdish reconciliation, the US presence in northeast Syria and its interaction with the Arab populations over which it rules. Based on our analysis, we anticipate a scenario of ‘muddling through’ in which unconditional support from the US will continue at current levels, combined with an abiding US military presence. This will provide the YPG/ PYD with a security umbrella against both regime forces and Turkey, continue the status quo of the YPG/ PYD ruling northeast Syria in authoritarian fashion, make the civil war more ethno-sectarian in nature and prolong the conflict. While such a scenario is arguably more attractive for northeast Syria than a return of the regime, it is also unlikely to improve the area’s current underdevelopment. It will keep other external actors, like the EU, away and allow the PKK to continue to take its share of the area’s revenues. The primary audience of the report are Western opinion-, policy- and decision-makers engaged with the Syrian civil war and we hope it will help them to craft policies and initiate interventions that are feasible and appropriate to the situation in northeast Syria.
Topic:: Conflict, Syrian War, and YPG
Political Geography:: Middle East, Syria, United States of America, and European Union

11988. Fostering digital connectivity in and with the Indo-Pacific

Author:: Brigitte Dekker and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: pen, safe and inclusive digital connectivity and engage with the region’s thriving digital economies. While Indo-Pacific countries have called for greater maritime presence by European countries in their increasingly contested waters, European actors may have more to offer in the less-discussed but equally contested high-tech and digital domains. Recognizing the opportunities and disruptions that accompany the digital transition and green transformation globally, the EU and its member states need to increase their engagement with governments, commercial and civil-society stakeholders and networks in the Indo-Pacific on a broad array of digitalization issues.
Topic:: Civil Society, European Union, Economy, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Europe and Indo-Pacific

11989. Towards a Better Understanding of Climate Security Practices

Author:: Tobias von Lossow, Louise Van Schaik, Jos Meester, Anouk Schrijver, and Maxime van der Kroon
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The Planetary Security Initiative has launched a first report and overview of climate security practices. Climate security research has evolved tremendously over the past 20 years in the direction of how to address security risks related to climate change. Action on the ground is still limited but holds a lot of potential. Therefore, interest is growing in the development, diplomacy and defence sectors to engage in this space. The climate security practices project from the Planetary Security Initiative seeks to open up a new and vital area of analysis in the climate security community: When it comes to action, what works, and what doesn’t? Although it is still too early to answer this question, it is possible to collect climate security practices and draw lessons from their implementation. With the climate security link having become more evident in many countries and regions of the world it is imperative to scale up efforts to address the climate security nexus and to learn from these efforts. The Planetary Security Initiative aims to inspire learning on how we can combat this complex risk, or at least alleviate security risks related to climate change, and consider it a new entry point for conflict prevention and peacebuilding efforts. The first report draws lessons from and reflects on 8 climate security practices that enhance peace and stability. Many peace-building interventions try to address a wide range of conflict drivers, which include the various manifestations of climate stress such as pressure on natural resources, livelihoods and human security. These can arise from desertification, lack of access to water and unequal natural resource distribution. Examples of these interventions include tree-planting projects, the inclusion of natural resource distribution measures in peace treaties and provision of renewables in refugee camps and military missions. The projects will cover a wide range of practices ranging from human security to hard security-focused practices implemented by actors in the development, diplomacy and defence sectors.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, Climate Change, Diplomacy, and Human Security
Political Geography:: Global Focus

11990. Towards open and secure digital connectivity: Europe’s and Taiwan’s paths after the world’s first digital pandemic

Author:: Brigitte Dekker, Xiaoxue Martin, and Maaike Okano-Heijmans
Publication Date:: 04-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Surveillance capitalism and digital authoritarianism have become facts of life in recent years. Set against the US–China trade–tech–data standoff, the European Union (EU) and its member states are navigating their course of open strategic autonomy, assessing how to position themselves in the digital age. Synergies and coordination with like-minded partners – including the United States (US) and countries in the Indo-Pacific – seem inevitable. This raises the question of to what extent Taiwan can be a partner for closer cooperation on digital matters. Can the EU, and specifically the Netherlands, and Taiwan move beyond diverging priorities, and promote a human-centred approach to the digital domain by leveraging their economic, scientific and cultural ties? In answering this question, this Clingendael Report examines the approaches of both sides to strengthening resilient societies, so-called ‘Big Tech’ regulation and digital development assistance. Findings suggest that while the underlying strategic interests and goals of Taiwan and Europe on digital connectivity align, priorities and strengths diverge. China’s growing influence and assertive behaviour pose a substantial challenge to both sides’ open, inclusive democracies, economic competitiveness and standard-setting power. As Europe and Taiwan improve policies domestically, as well as in and with third countries, especially in the Indo-Pacific region, they can benefit from each other’s complementary skills in specific digitalisation and digital connectivity domains.
Topic:: Science and Technology, Authoritarianism, Surveillance, Pandemic, and Digitalization
Political Geography:: Europe, Taiwan, and Asia

11991. Financial disruption and fragile markets: A political-economic perspective on SMEs in the Somali private sector under COVID-19

Author:: Jos Meester, Johannes Claes, Claire Elder, and Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This report explores SME growth and resilience in the fragile Somali context during the COVID-19 pandemic, including its relation to wider political-economic developments. The pandemic has demonstrated how Somali businesses have continued to be resilient and at times even thrive during crisis, but it has also exposed the sizeable vulnerability associated with the Somali territories’ trade, import dependence and financing system. The global COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the supply and trans-shipment of goods. This has created shortages and price fluctuations for Somalia’s import-based economy and hampered the country’s payment system. It has also reduced remittances, buying power, access to finance and tax revenues. Shifts in funding streams have realigned political financing patterns and created price instability as political actors seek new ventures through which to move funds. Although the economic shock brought about by COVID-19 has not structurally changed the Somali political economy, it has exacerbated existing patterns of inequality. The contribution of the private sector to the COVID-19 response has likely supported a range of livelihoods throughout the Somali territories, yet the preferential access to governance and strong competitive position that allowed this also highlights a worrying level of inequality and market concentration, and raises questions regarding government legitimacy. It seems likely that the COVID-induced economic crisis has therefore reinforced rather than destabilised those dynamics that prevent small businesses from competing on an equal footing and fragile situations from developing and stabilising.
Topic:: Economics, Markets, Politics, COVID-19, and Fragile Markets
Political Geography:: Africa and Somalia

11992. Energising EU enlargement? The prospects of the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans

Author:: Wouter Zweers, Giulia Cretti, and Kristina Naunova
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: With the Green Agenda for the Western Balkans, the 2050 climate neutrality goal of the European Union has been extended to the six countries in South-Eastern Europe that aspire to join the Union. The Green Agenda is a promising tool for fostering climate and energy policy measures in the Western Balkans, a region with high vulnerability to climate change risks and little energy diversification away from coal. But could the Green Agenda also be a catalyst for renewed interest and enhanced political engagement, leading to a much-needed impetus to the EU enlargement process? This policy brief asks how the Green Agenda can work in the interest of both the objective of a climate neutral continent and the EU accession of the Western Balkan countries.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, European Union, and Diversification
Political Geography:: Europe, Eastern Europe, and Balkans

11993. Trapped in a vicious cycle: Factors of instability in the Nineveh Plains

Author:: Nancy Ezzeddine
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The Nineveh Plains have long been characterised by ethnoreligious diversity that has triggered waves of marginalisation and sectarian violence far more often than peaceful co-existence over the past decades. The Islamic State occupation represented only the latest of many episodes of violence. Although it was short-lived, the impact of IS has been profound as it further ruptured the Plains’ social fabric and dysfunctional governance. Indeed, as the threat of IS has gone and violence abated, old vulnerabilities persist while new ones have arisen. This report analyses four major factors of instability that characterise the Nineveh Plains today from a perspective of crisis and conflict: the current administrative and governance vacuum produced by the weak capacity of local authorities and a paralysing dispute between Baghdad and Erbil; fragmented security arrangements with each actor exerting autonomous control within their part(s) of the Nineveh Plains; chronic displacement without coherent policy on how to enable safe returns or support vulnerable communities; growing social tensions in the aftermath of the war sowing feelings of anger, betrayal and disillusionment among communities. As the weight of these issues drags communities down and a government response remains absent, desperation and misery grow. Because the different factors of instability reinforce each other – consider for example how continued insecurity prevents the displaced from returning – they create a vicious cycle.
Topic:: Sectarian violence, Islamic State, Political stability, and Marginalization
Political Geography:: Iraq and Middle East

11994. The EU’s Strategic Compass for security and defence: Squaring ambition with reality

Author:: Dick Zandee, Adaja Stoetman, and Bob Deen
Publication Date:: 05-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The European Union (EU) is developing a Strategic Compass for security and defence, to be ready by March 2022. The first semester of 2021 is the phase of the ‘strategic dialogue’ with the member states and institutions of the EU, including the involvement of think tanks and other stakeholders. Commissioned by the Ministries of Defence and Foreign Affairs of the Netherlands, the Clingendael Institute delivers its contribution to the strategic dialogue on the Strategic Compass by focussing on defining more precisely the military level of ambition of the EU and what it implies for capability development and the relationship with NATO. The EU faces a wider set of challenges and threats than ever before. In the global power rivalry between China, Russia and the United States, it is ‘Europe’ that runs the danger of becoming irrelevant and the object of great power actions rather than being a global actor. The arc of instability around Europe is unlikely to turn into an arc of stability. The challenges posed by state and non-state actors – the latter in particular in the southern neighbourhood – require the EU to respond to external conflicts and crises, to support partners to provide security for their own population and to protect the Union and its citizens – the three strategic priorities for the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP) as defined five years ago in the Implementation Plan on Security and Defence. While the EU has made progress in many areas – trade policies, partnerships, civilian crisis management – its military tools have remained weak as a result of a lack of political will and the absence of adequate military means. The Strategic Compass offers the opportunity to close the gap between ‘too much rhetoric’ and ‘too little action’ that have characterised the EU’s security and defence efforts so far. In recent years, new instruments have been created to improve European defence cooperation – such as the Coordinated Annual Review on Defence (CARD), Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) and the European Defence Fund (EDF) – but these are what they are: without strategic direction instruments tend to become bureaucratic tools rather than the rails on which the train travels to its destination. In the Strategic Compass the EU has to define more precisely its military level of ambition and what it implies for capability development and partnerships. In short, the report tries to answer two questions: (1) what should the EU be able to do, and (2) what is needed to get there? The relationship with NATO has to be taken into account in answering these key questions.
Topic:: Security, Defense Policy, European Union, and Strategic Interests
Political Geography:: Europe

11995. ‘A careful foot can step anywhere’: The UAE and China in the Horn of Africa: Implications for EU engagement

Author:: Jos Meester and Guido Lanfranchi
Publication Date:: 06-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Over the last decade, the UAE and China have vastly expanded their economic, political and military footprint in the Horn of Africa, and their actions now have the potential to shape developments in the region. Room for cooperation between Abu Dhabi and Beijing exists on issues such as maritime security, regional stability, and economic development. Moreover, the two countries’ interaction could lead to improvements in the Horn’s underdeveloped infrastructure by triggering a race to investment. Yet, development and stability in the region might suffer if the strategic interests of external players take precedence over local ones, or if local elites (mis)use external support for narrow domestic political calculations. The EU and its member states have high stakes in the Horn’s stability. To optimise their engagement, European policymakers should be aware of the implications of the Emirati and Chinese presence, and they should strive to improve cooperation among the wide range of external players active in the Horn.
Topic:: Economics, International Cooperation, Politics, Military Affairs, Economic Development, and Economic Stability
Political Geography:: Africa, China, Asia, and Horn of Africa

11996. Stepping up the greenification Policy Brief of the power sector in the Western Balkans

Author:: Luuk Molthof, Giulia Cretti, and Aleksandar Macura
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This Clingendael series ‘The Green Agenda for the Western Balkans’ provides an inside perspective on the EU climate ambitions for the Western Balkan Six (Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo*, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia) and the challenges ahead. In this second contribution, we analyse the state of affairs with regard to energy diversification and greenification. The energy sector in most Western Balkan countries is characterised by a heavy dependency on coal and outdated production facilities, posing severe environmental challenges to the region. Possessing significant renewable energy potential, the Western Balkan Six (WB6) in theory have good prospects of making a successful energy transition. In terms of natural resources, the region is also well placed as Albania and Serbia possess solid reserves of metals and rare earths that are needed to develop energy transition technologies, such as batteries, smart grids, solar panels and windmills. Yet the transition is hampered by several economic and political factors, such as a highly centralised energy market with only a few large suppliers, dynamics of clientelism and controversial outside investment (such as from China). This policy brief analyses the current challenges that prevent energy diversification and greenification in the region and asks how the recently launched EU Green Agenda for the Western Balkans can address these challenges.
Topic:: Climate Change, Energy Policy, and European Union
Political Geography:: Eastern Europe and Balkans

11997. The Green Agenda: Providing Policy Brief breathing space for Western Balkans citizens?

Author:: Paul Hofhuis, Wouter Zweers, Giulia Cretti, and Srdja Popovic
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This Clingendael series ‘The Green Agenda for the Western Balkans’ provides an inside perspective on the EU climate ambitions for the Western Balkan Six (Albania, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Kosovo*, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Serbia) and the challenges ahead. In this third contribution, we analyse the state of affairs with regard to pollution. Across the Western Balkans, air, water and soil pollution levels are incredibly high. Public health is continuously jeopardised by air pollution arising from local heating sources and energy production plants. The Green Agenda for the Western Balkans aims to assist the region in tackling pollution problems and aligning the countries’ environmental quality regulation with the European acquis. This paper analyses the state of affairs with regard to air, water and soil pollution in the WB6 and examines how it affects citizens’ health and socioeconomic prospects. The policy brief argues that countries in the Western Balkans need to address a coal phase-out while simultaneously tackling energy poverty. The EU could more actively support this, not only by providing a platform for dialogue, but through supporting programmes for renewable energy provisions and infrastructure, reskilling of workers and job creation. The Sofia Declaration, that sets out the Green Agenda, needs to be complemented with measures to ensure compliance with environmental regulations, preferably by involving civil society organisations in monitoring implementation and raising public awareness of the socioeconomic costs of pollution.
Topic:: Climate Change, European Union, Pollution, and Public Health
Political Geography:: Bosnia, Herzegovina, Eastern Europe, Kosovo, Serbia, Balkans, Albania, Montenegro, and North Macedonia

11998. Fruitless cherry picking?: EU engagement with the Syrian opposition (Etilaf)

Author:: Lars Hauch
Publication Date:: 07-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: This policy brief examines the EU’s engagement and relationship with Syria’s main political opposition umbrella, the Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (Etilaf), which was founded in late 2012. It discusses the EU’s engagement strategies with the Etilaf and their impact on its development in the context of the Syrian conflict. The brief highlights that the EU did not substantiate the international legitimacy it granted the organisation early on during the conflict with policies that would have allowed it to expand its domestic legitimacy and capabilities. This policy contributed to developments in which the Etilaf rapidly lost its original potential. While the Etilaf today faces a range of structural and operational challenges that need to be addressed, the brief nevertheless recommends EU institutions and Member States to increase their support for the Etilaf and the Interim Government linked with it, if a number of conditions can be met. Such support will help maintain and develop these bodies into a viable centre of political opposition to the Assad regime. Practically speaking, this objective can be pursued by piloting conditional EU support to areas of northwestern and northern Syria that are nominally under the control of the Interim Government. It also requires building a partnership with Turkey to jointly support local Syrian administration(s) in the same areas.
Topic:: Politics, European Union, Conflict, Syrian War, Bashar al-Assad, and Opposition
Political Geography:: Europe, Middle East, and Syria

11999. ‘Of Cattle and Conflict’ – Rethinking responses to pastoralism-related conflicts

Author:: Jos Meester
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Policy Brief
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: Disputes over natural resources such as water and land among pastoralist groups and between mobile pastoralists and sedentary farmers have a long history and are turning increasingly violent. Competition over scarce natural resources is often put forward as the key driver of farmer-herder conflicts, disregarding the significant role governance is playing in conflict dynamics. Oversimplifications of the pastoralist-conflict equation and a lack of understanding of pastoralist systems and the way they are governed has led to inappropriate interventions further undermining pastoralism. Policies and interventions in response to pastoralism-related conflicts often do not take an integrated approach but are based on sectoral policies and are not conflict sensitive as they fail to take into account the political economy driving farmer-herder conflicts. Comparing the cases of Burkina Faso, Somalia and South Sudan, this paper analyses how pastoralist resource governance in combination with its specific underlying political economy differentially affects the dynamics of conflict around pastoral resources. Reflecting upon three agendas that inform the thinking about pastoralism as well as donor interventions – climate change, food security and governance – this paper provides some recommendations on how to take underlying political economy into account for sensible and effective programming.
Topic:: Agriculture, Natural Resources, Conflict, and Pastoralism
Political Geography:: Africa, Somalia, South Sudan, and Burkina Faso

12000. An Ever Closer Union? Ramifications of further integration between Belarus and Russia

Author:: Bob Deen, Sam Roggeveen, and Wouter Zweers
Publication Date:: 08-2021
Content Type:: Special Report
Institution:: Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Abstract:: The Union State of Russia and Belarus was forged in the 1990s through a series of bilateral treaties but has largely remained a paper tiger – at least until now. For well over two decades Belarusian President Lukashenko has had a complicated love-hate relationship with the Kremlin, milking the Russian Federation for energy subsidies and other economic benefits while simultaneously zealously guarding his country’s sovereignty and shielding its state-owned enterprises from Russian takeovers. Although co-operation in the military domain has advanced considerably, the more far-reaching provisions of the Union State, such as a joint constitution, monetary union and a single energy market, have never materialized. While Belarus has generally aligned its foreign policy outlook with the Russian Federation and acceded to the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union, at various moments Lukashenko tried to keep his geopolitical options open as his relations with the Kremlin deteriorated. Among other things, he sought closer relations with the European Union following the 2008 Georgia conflict and the 2014 Ukraine crisis. The EU, in turn, has alternated between defending its democratic values by imposing sanctions on Lukashenko and his regime for human rights abuses, and then lifting those again a few years later, hoping to lure Belarus away from Russia’s sphere of influence. These hopes proved to be in vain. The Presidential elections of August 2020 and their repressive aftermath have again led to a turning point in Belarus’ relations with the West and with the Russian Federation. Relying on Russian support to remain in power and facing a series of European sanctions, Lukashenko is now again under pressure by the Kremlin to make far-reaching concessions and to advance the integration of Belarus and Russia within the Union State framework. As both the stability of the Lukashenko regime and the outcome of the integration process remain uncertain, this report identifies six scenarios for the future of Belarus and further elaborates the consequences of four of them.
Topic:: Foreign Policy, Bilateral Relations, Sanctions, Military Affairs, European Union, and Integration
Political Geography:: Russia, Eurasia, and Belarus

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