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202. Yemen's domestic and regional politics
- Author:
- Bernard Haykel
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- Yemen is politically fragmented by three decades of misrule. Many political actors and constituencies oppose the Salih legacy and they need to be included in any future political framework if the country is to become stable. The main regional actor is Saudi Arabia, whereas the U.S. remains the principal hegemon in the region. Saudi Arabia's policy towards Yemen is in flux, whereas the U.S. is too narrowly focused on the threat posed by al-Qaeda. Unless the U.S. and the Saudis change their policies, Yemen will not develop a strong central government.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Corruption, Islam, Armed Struggle, Fragile/Failed State, and Governance
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Saudi Arabia
203. Turkish and Iranian interests and policies in the South Caucasus
- Author:
- Evanthia Balla
- Publication Date:
- 04-2013
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- The South Caucasus, situated as it is at the crossroads of Eurasia's major energy and transport corridors, continues to play a vital role in the world's security affairs. After the end of the cold war the South Caucasus emerged as a key region in the geopolitical contest among regional and global powers. The South Caucasus states of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia are constantly performing a balancing act in their relations with the U.S., Russia, Turkey and Iran. Armenia has developed strong political and economic ties with Iran in order to counter the Turkish-Azerbaijani axis. Azerbaijan seeks to reinforce its links with the West, especially the U.S., as its main extraregional source of diplomatic and economic support, while it remains cautious towards both Russian and Iranian ambitions in the region. Especially after the 2008 war with Russia and the loss of its provinces of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Georgia has reinforced its links to Western powers and structures while strengthening its ties with Turkey. Both Turkey and Iran are trying to increase their influence in the region, while promoting their national interests in the international arena.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, Islam, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Turkey, and Middle East
204. American Military History: A Resource for Teachers and Students
- Author:
- Paul Herbert and Michael Noonan
- Publication Date:
- 08-2013
- Content Type:
- Book
- Abstract:
- Teaching America’s military history is an important civic duty because “We the People” are responsible for the common defense and therefore should know something about it. At the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), we encourage teachers to integrate military history into the history that they already teach, and we think they can do so without personal military experience, just as they teach about so many other aspects of American life. Starting in 2006, FPRI teamed up with the First Division Museum at Cantigny to offer the first Teaching Military History Institute for Teachers. This history institute series built upon and expanded the proven FPRI model that has been in operation since 1992. The concept is simple: assemble an audience of dedicated secondary school teachers, bring in first tier scholars of varied perspectives to address them on substantive military topics, and stimulate their interaction over a weekend at the world class setting of the First Division Museum. Omitted are the pedagogical lessons that can be learned back at one’s school. Teachers earn continuing education credits for attendance and are encouraged to develop lesson plans to incorporate knowledge from these weekends into their teaching. Since 2006, nearly 300 teachers have gone through one or more of these Institutes. This volume is a selection of materials presented at the eight Teaching Military History Institutes held since 2006. This e-book can be used as a resource by teachers, students, and the public to expand their understanding of how the U.S. military has helped to shape American history—not only on the battlefield but also socially, politically, economically, and technologically. We believe that our common defense will be better if the public is familiar with our military history. We hope that users and readers will enjoy this collection and use it to further that purpose.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, History, and Military Affairs
- Political Geography:
- United States
205. U.S. Department of Defense Contract Spending and the Supporting Industrial Base, 2000-2012
- Author:
- David J. Berteau, Gregory Sanders, Jesse Ellman, and Rhys McCormick
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- Over the past decade, the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) has been analyzing and reporting on contract spending for national security and across the federal government. This report analyzes contracting for products, services, and research and development (R) by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and its key components. It provides an in-depth look at the trends currently driving nearly 70 percent of all federal contract dollars throughout the growth and subsequent inflection of defense spending of the 2000–2012 study period. This third edition of the DoD report updates reports from previous years and provides greater depth of analysis. Rather than primarily reporting the changes across dozens of graphs, the analysis lists key factors behind growth or decline. However, the ability to dive deeply into raw data is as important to many CSIS readers. To meet that need, CSIS has significantly upgraded the project website (http://www.csis.org/NSPIR/DoD ) to include the graphs and table contained within this report as well as variants by defense component and by product/service area. This web site will be a living repository. Throughout the year, the study team will publish and update the data underlying shorter publications on key issues relevant to the defense- industrial base.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States
206. The Gulf Military Balance Volume II: The Missile and Nuclear Dimensions
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman and Bryan Gold
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- No single aspect of US and Iranian military competition is potentially more dangerous than the missile and nuclear dimensions, and the possibility Iran will deploy long-range, nuclear-armed missiles.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iran, and Middle East
207. Turkey-U.S. Relations: Towards a Multidimensional Partnership
- Author:
- Eyüp Ersoy and Mehmet Yegin
- Publication Date:
- 12-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- International Strategic Research Organization (USAK)
- Abstract:
- Unlike other studies on Turkey-U.S. relations, this report examines the key actors influential on U.S. policy and their perspectives about Turkey, theoretically discusses the regional aspects in Turkey-U.S. relations, and finally emphasizes the economic and social dimensions of the bilateral relations.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Turkey, and India
208. The New NATO Policy Guidelines on Counterterrorism: Analysis, Assessments, and Actions
- Author:
- Stefano Santamato and Marie-Theres Beumler
- Publication Date:
- 02-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- The history of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) will say that the first, and so far only, time NATO has called upon its Article 5 collective defense clause was on September 12, 2001, following a terrorist attack on one of its members. Yet, until the agreement by NATO Heads of State and Government on the new policy guidelines on counterterrorism on May 20, 2012, NATO did not have an agreed policy to define its role and mandate in countering terrorism.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Cold War, International Cooperation, Treaties and Agreements, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States
209. Ending Child Marriage: How Elevating the Status of Girls Advances U.S. Foreign Policy Objectives
- Author:
- Rachel B. Vogelstein
- Publication Date:
- 05-2013
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- The practice of child marriage is a violation of human rights. Every day, girls around the world are forced to leave their families, marry against their will, endure sexual and physical abuse, and bear children while still in childhood themselves. This practice is driven by poverty, deeply embedded cultural traditions, and pervasive discrimination against girls. Yet in many parts of the world, this ancient practice still flourishes: estimates show that nearly five million girls are married under the age of fifteen every year, and some are as young as eight or nine years old.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Human Rights, and Poverty
- Political Geography:
- United States and North America
210. Policy Considerations in Combating Terrorism: Decision‐Making Under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty
- Author:
- Michele L. Malvesti
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- In May 2011, in what is arguably the United States' most strategically significant counterterrorism (CT) mission to date, a U.S. Special Operations Forces (SOF) team crossed over 100 miles into Pakistan—a putative CT partner—without informing the host government, infiltrated a residential compound that stood in proximity to a military academy, and killed Usama bin Ladin, the leader of al‐Qa'ida and the individual ultimately responsible for the deadliest terrorist attacks on U.S. soil.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan and United States
211. The U.S.-Pakistan Relationship in the Year Ahead
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- CTC Sentinel
- Institution:
- The Combating Terrorism Center at West Point
- Abstract:
- In the past six months, a series of major incidents between the United States and Pakistan has brought their relationship to a new low. Even Pakistan's longstanding allies and European aid donors are increasingly at odds with Islamabad's current foreign policy. These tensions have Pakistani civilians feeling as if their country is at war with the world.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, and Islamabad
212. On Political Virtue: A Discussion of Prudence and Fortitude in U.S. Governance Interview with Chuck Hagel
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Journal sits down with former Senator Chuck Hagel to listen to his perspective on a number of the current pressing issues of U.S. foreign policy: the 2012 presidential elections, engagement in the Middle East, and the ongoing debate regarding the obligation of the United States to protect civilians across the globe.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Middle East
213. A Changing Game: Politics and Foreign Affairs Interview with Madeleine Albright
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Institution:
- Georgetown Journal of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- The Journal talks with former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright about her views on the present progression of U.S. foreign policy and the understanding her career has brought about therein.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
214. Giving the Surge Partial Credit for Iraq's 2007 Reduction in Violence
- Author:
- Stephen Biddle, Jacob N. Shapiro, and Jeffrey A. Friedman
- Publication Date:
- 09-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- Why did violence decline in Iraq in 2007? Many credit the "surge," or the program of U.S. reinforcements and doctrinal changes that began in January 2007. Others cite the voluntary insurgent stand-downs of the Sunni Awakening or say that the violence had simply run its course after a wave of sectarian cleansing. Evidence drawn from recently declassified data on violence at local levels and a series of seventy structured interviews with coalition participants finds little support for the cleansing or Awakening theses. This analysis constitutes the first attempt to gather systematic evidence across space and time to help resolve this debate, and it shows that a synergistic interaction between the surge and the Awakening was required for violence to drop as quickly and widely as it did.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, War, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, Middle East, and Arabia
215. Iran's Nuclear Ambitions and Future Prospects
- Author:
- Olli Heinonen
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard University
- Abstract:
- International diplomacy efforts dealing with Iran's nuclear program continue to fill the daily news headlines. The efforts of P5+1, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) have tried, in various formats, to encourage and enforce Iran to comply with the provisions of the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) and its Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) to ensure that Iran's nuclear program is not used as a cover for the development of nuclear weapons. The challenge of discovering what has taken place as well as currently with Iran's nuclear ambitions is difficult not only because of Tehran's obstructionism, but also because the same nuclear technologies, particularly uranium enrichment and spent fuel reprocessing, can be used for both civilian and military purposes.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Nuclear Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Sanctions, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States and Iran
216. The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Anchoring Stability in Asia
- Author:
- Joseph S. Nye and Richard L. Armitage
- Publication Date:
- 08-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- This report on the U.S.-Japan alliance comes at a time of drift in the relationship. As leaders in both the United States and Japan face a myriad of other challenges, the health and welfare of one of the world's most important alliances is endangered. Although the arduous efforts of Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and his colleagues in both governments have largely kept the alliance stable, today's challenges and opportunities in the region and beyond demand more. Together, we face the re-rise of China and its attendant uncertainties, North Korea with its nuclear capabilities and hostile intentions, and the promise of Asia's dynamism. Elsewhere, there are the many challenges of a globalized world and an increasingly complex security environment. A stronger and more equal alliance is required to adequately address these and other great issues of the day.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, Israel, Asia, and North Korea
217. Malaysia's U.S. Policy under Najib: Ambivalence No More?
- Author:
- KUIK Cheng-Chwee
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for Non-Traditional Security Studies, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
- Abstract:
- This paper adopts a neoclassical realist perspective to explain Malaysia's evolving policy towards the United States under Prime Minister Najib Tun Razak. It argues that to the extent that there is a “shift” in Malaysia's U.S. policy under the current leadership, the substance and symbolism in Najib's U.S. policy has been driven and limited by the needs of the ruling elite to strike a balance between a variety of structural imperatives and domestic considerations. Structurally, in the face of a fast rising China (with whom Malaysia has come to develop an increasingly productive relation in both economic and diplomatic domains, but with whom it has unresolved territorial issues), the leader of the smaller state is increasingly confronted with the geostrategic need to keep a more balanced relationship with all the major players. This is especially so with the United States, which, under the Obama administration's “pivot” to Asia policy, has demonstrated a renewed and enhanced commitment to engage countries in the Asia-Pacific, including Malaysia. This structural push, however, has been counteracted by the smaller state's desire of not wanting to be entrapped in any big power rivalry, and by its concern about the uncertainties of great power commitments. Domestically, there is a strong economic need to further enhance two-way trade and increase the flow of American capital and technology into Malaysia, deemed vital to Najib's Economic Transformation Program. Perhaps more importantly, there is also a political calculation by the governing elite to capitalize on the increasingly warm and close bilateral ties as a leverage to reduce – if not neutralize – Washington's support for the Anwar Ibrahim-led opposition and civil society movements, which have presented a growing challenge to the ruling BN coalition. This calculation, however, has been counteracted by UMNO's domestic concern of not wanting to appear too closely aligned with America, in order not to alienate the country's Muslim majority voters who have been critical of U.S. policy on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. These structural and domestic determinants together explain Malaysia's evolving policy toward the superpower under the current leadership.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Islam, Political Economy, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Malaysia, Israel, and Southeast Asia
218. Offshore Control: A Proposed Strategy for an Unlikely Conflict
- Author:
- T.X. Hammes
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- As America ends its military commitment to Iraq and continues its drawdown in Afghanistan, a lively discussion has emerged on what future challenges the Nation faces. High on every list is the requirement to deal with a rising China. In his remarks to the Australian Parliament on November 17, 2011, President Barack Obama stated, “As we end today's wars, I have directed my national security team to make our presence and mission in the Asia Pacific a top priority.” As part of this re-balancing to Asia, the administration has stated that it seeks “to identify and expand areas of common interest, to work with China to build mutual trust, and to encourage China's active efforts in global problem-solving.” Clearly, the United States seeks prudent and coordinated political, economic, and military actions to further integrate China into the international system.
- Topic:
- Conflict Prevention, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, and Arms Control and Proliferation
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and Asia
219. Grand Strategy and International Law
- Author:
- Nicholas Rostow
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Abstract:
- U.S. grand strategy, the calculated relationship between means and large ends, needs to be developed and implemented in an international legal context because of the nature of U.S. society and values, and the overriding requirement to prevent nuclear war. Since World War II, successive administrations have conceived of U.S. alliances, partnerships, arms control agreements, and international actions more generally as grand strategy. A central component of U.S. success has been creating, leading, and sustaining a minimum world order that all states have come to see as representing their core interests. International law cannot be and has never been far from U.S. policymaking because Americans have believed that it is essential to the maintenance of the minimum world order necessary for peace and the prevention of nuclear war insofar as it is possible to achieve these goals.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Law, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States
220. When Domestic Factors Prevail Upon Foreign Ambitions: Russia\'s Strategic Game in Syria
- Author:
- Camilla Committeri
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- The Syrian crisis is dividing the international community like no other Arab uprising has done so far. While the United States and the European Union stand squarely against the Syrian regime, Russia remains a staunch defender of state sovereignty and the Al-Assad regime. There are three main factors that explain this position: Moscow's historical relations with Damascus; Russia's traditional opposition to US presence in the Middle East; and the surge in domestic opposition in Russia itself. This last factor, and the recent evolution of Russian domestic politics, is crucial to grasp Moscow's foreign policy towards Syria and the Middle East, a s well as towards the United States and Europe.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Civil War, Bilateral Relations, and Foreign Aid
- Political Geography:
- Russia, United States, Middle East, Arabia, Moscow, and Syria
221. Advancing Myanmar's Transition: A Way Forward for U.S. Policy
- Author:
- Priscilla Clapp and Suzanne DiMaggio
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Asia Society
- Abstract:
- In January 2012, an Asia Society delegation visited Burma/Myanmar to engage in a Track II dialogue with the Myanmar Development Resources Institute (MDRI), a newly created, independent think tank based in Yangon. The MDRI participants in the dialogue include advisors with a mandate to provide policy advice in the areas of political, economic, and legal affairs to President Thein Sein and his government. The goal of this informal dialogue is to establish an ongoing channel of communication between experts from both countries and to explore opportunities to advance U.S.–Myanmar relations during a particularly fluid and fragile period of transition in Myanmar.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States, Asia, Southeast Asia, and Myanmar
222. International Religious Freedom: Strategic National Interest and Foreign Policy Priority
- Author:
- Suzan Johnson Cook
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- One's freedom to believe as he or she chooses and to manifest those beliefs is a constitutional right in the United States that is often taken for granted. Not only do we enjoy these freedoms as we adhere to or reject worldviews and religions as we choose; we also enjoy the robust civil society, peaceful political transitions, and economic prosperity that would not be possible were this fundamental freedom not soundly protected in the United States.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
223. US Presidents and Foreign Policy Mistakes
- Author:
- Özden Zeynep Oktav
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Journal:
- Insight Turkey
- Institution:
- SETA Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research
- Abstract:
- Socrates' pupil Chaerephon once asked an oracle “who is the wisest of all men?” The oracle responded that Socrates is the wisest of all because of his self-awareness. According to philosophers from Socrates to Montaigne, Spinoza, Kant, true wisdom and full knowledge may be a utopian fantasy. In a world of uncertainty where mistakes are unavoidable facts of daily life for citizens and politicians alike, how politicians will be able to avoid foreign policy mistakes is the main concern of this book. There are some other questions of crucial importance which the book deals with: What are foreign policy mistakes and how and why do they occur? The answers to those questions are available in this book and it concentrates on the concept of power. Regarding the concept of power, the main question is “kto-kovo?” (Lenin's famous question, “who controls whom?”) The answers to the question “what are foreign policy mistakes?” and conceptualizing foreign policy mistakes are quite blurry and complicated. There may be lots of different kinds of mistakes, such as violating moral rules, lack of cognitive judgment, and policies costing too much and having unanticipated and undesirable results. The mistakes can be classified as omission (too little/too late) and commission (too much/too soon). For example, mistakes of omission are evident in the British policies towards Germany which failed to deter Germany's occupation of Sudetenland in 1938 and to reassure the Russians that they would negotiate an alliance against Germany. This failure of the British decision makers led to a non-aggression pact between Stalin and Hitler in 1939. The Katyn Forest massacre exemplifies best how Soviet Russia misperceived the gains in cooperating with Germany in the removal of Poland from the map of Europe because according to the authors, the Soviet decision to execute Polish POWs and bury them in the Katyn Forest is a foreign policy decision that falls into three domain; morality, intelligence and policy. It was a violation of international law, based on a diagnostic judgement blinded by ignorance of the future and by communist ideology, which led to a prescription for a policy action that alienated future allies.This, at the same time illustrates the mistake of commission (too much/too soon) and moral failure. Foreign policy choices are not only concerned with rational choices, but, as Axelrod and Jarwis clearly defined it, they also stem from some sources of mistakes such as subjective cognitive maps, heuristics, attribution errors, desires to maintain cognitive consistency and avoid cognitive dissonance, selective attention, and other emotional or cold cognitive biases. Khong explains why human beings are “creatures with limited cognitive capacities” by emphasizing that leaders, like every human, tend to turn to historical analogies for guidance when confronted with novel foreign policy challenges. However the issue is that the result is often a foreign policy mistake since this only helps the leaders “access analogies on the basis of surface similarities”.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- Britain, Russia, United States, Europe, Poland, Soviet Union, and Germany
224. Democratic Internationalism: An American Grand Strategy for a Post-exceptionalist Era
- Author:
- G. John Ikenberry and Daniel Deudney
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Over the past half-century—what is often called the “American century”—the United States enjoyed extraordinary success, growth, and influence. It was not only the pivotal “arsenal” in the defense of democracy but also the principal exemplar of democratic capitalism that held enormous appeal around the world. During this era, the United States was simultaneously locked in a geopolitical and ideological bipolar struggle with the Soviet Union and, within the free world community, acknowledged as the leader and defender of a broad community of democratic capitalist countries. Not surprisingly, therefore, the United States pursued a multifaceted grand strategy. It played the role of Cold War leader of a coalition in global great power rivalry. It was also the indispensable leader in building order and cooperation within the free world camp. At the same time, the United States often employed its immense influence to advance a universalistic program of human betterment centered on political democracy, market capitalism, free trade, human rights, national self-determination, and international law and organization.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Diplomacy
- Political Geography:
- United States and Soviet Union
225. A New Paradigm? Prospects and Challenges for U.S. Global Leadership
- Author:
- Tural Ahmadov
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- Throughout the years the overwhelming preponderance of US global leadership is debated by scholars and politicians. In light of the 'rise of the rest', this preponderance is either diminishing or still standing. As of now, yet again, the US is a dominant player both economically and militarily. However, economic recession is likely to make the United States put more emphasis on domestic problems and less emphasis on foreign challenges. Since political and economic landscape is swiftly changing overseas, the United States should act accordingly and cooperate with regional powers on issues of mutual interest. Similarly, as current development is under way in the Middle East, the United States should staunchly back Turkey as the regional hub in dealing with Syrian crisis and foiling Iranian menace.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Economics, and Financial Crisis
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Asia
226. Obama, Romney, and the Future of Turkey-United States Relations
- Author:
- Frank Lin
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- The 2012 American presidential election features two candidates, incumbent President Barack Obama and Governor Mitt Romney, with contrasting foreign policy visions for the United States, particularly with regards to the Middle East. How could these differences between the two candidates affect bilateral relations between the United States and Turkey, which—aside from Israel—is generally seen by the United States as its most stalwart ally in the Middle East? This paper will examine the recent history of bilateral relations between Turkey and the United States, from the George W. Bush administration to the Obama administration, as well as current issues surrounding relations between the two countries. It will also explore how the predicted policies of each candidate could impact the future course of bilateral relations between Turkey and the United States.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Islam, and Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Turkey, Middle East, Israel, and Arabia
227. Revising COIN: The Stakeholder Centric Approach
- Author:
- Karsten Friis, Erik Reichborn-Kjennerud, and Harald Håvoll
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Institute of International Affairs
- Abstract:
- With the apparent lack of progress and success in Afghanistan, counter- insurgency (COIN), both as a theory and practice, is falling out of favor within the political and military establishment in the US. This comes at a time when the US is redirecting its geopolitical focus away from global instability towards the Asia-Pacific and the 'New Great Power Game'.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Development, Emerging Markets, Terrorism, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Afghanistan, United States, and Australia/Pacific
228. China's regional security relations and interaction with the U.S.: trends, challenges and possible scenarios
- Author:
- Frans-Paul van der Putten
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Norwegian Centre for Conflict Resolution
- Abstract:
- This paper provides a brief overview of current developments relevant to Sino-U.S. security relations, and to China's involvement in regional security issues, in East and South-East Asia. The most fundamental challenge with regard to regional stability is how the roles of China and the United States in the Asia Pacific can be reconciled. While the U.S. is concerned that a rising China will eventually push American influence out of East and South-East Asia, China in turn fears that the U.S. will try to retain its leadership role by exploiting and amplifying tensions between the Chinese and their neighbours. Currently the Sino-U.S. rivalry is threatening unity within ASEAN, which poses an immediate risk for regional stability. A substantial improvement in regional stability – whether in South-East or in East Asia – is unlikely unless the U.S. and China manage to stabilise their bilateral relationship. It is important for all interested parties, inside Asia but also outside (including in Europe), to contribute to a move away from a scenario in which regional stability continues to deteriorate, and in the direction of a scenario that involves a cooperative arrangement between China and the U.S. in a stable multilateral setting.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, International Trade and Finance, Bilateral Relations, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, Israel, East Asia, Australia/Pacific, and Southeast Asia
229. Oil sanctions on Iran: Cracking under pressure?
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Economist Intelligence Unit
- Abstract:
- In 2012 Western sanctions on the Islamic Republic of Iran's oil and gas industry, aimed at putting economic pressure on it to change its nuclear policy, have reached an unprecedented level. Since the Iranian revolution in 1979, Iran has been in a state of hostility with the US, and has had cool relations, at best, with most European states. Sanctions against official Iranian financial institutions, individuals associated with the Islamic Republic and organisations suspected of being involved in nuclear proliferation activities have been mounting for some time. However, it is only recently that Iran's oil and gas sector has been specifically targeted by both the US and the EU in such a co-ordinated manner. Importantly, this marks the first time since the foundation of the Islamic Republic of Iran that the EU member states have collectively put in place sanctions on the export of Iranian crude oil—until now an action that, with a few exceptions, had only been taken by the US. The stakes have therefore been raised in Iran's confrontation with Western powers over the nuclear issue.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, Islam, Oil, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East
230. Moving towards Unity: Expanding the Role of the GCC in Gulf Security
- Author:
- Anthony H. Cordesman
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The Riyadh Declaration, which was issued at the end of the GCC meeting in December 2011, calls for efforts to explore creating a “single unity” that could deal with the many challenges facing the Arab Gulf states.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, Nuclear Weapons, and Nuclear Power
- Political Geography:
- United States, Middle East, and Arabia
231. U.S.-Turkish Relations a review at the beginning of the third decade of the post–cold war era
- Author:
- Bulent Aliriza and Bülent Aras
- Publication Date:
- 11-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Center for Strategic and International Studies
- Abstract:
- The partnership between the United States and Turkey, which traces its origins to the Cold War, has gone through constant adjustment since the beginning of the post–Cold War era.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, Islam, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Central Asia, Turkey, and Middle East
232. The United States and the Global Future
- Author:
- Banning Garrett, James B. Steinberg, David Ignatius, and Uri Dadush
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- How will the US economy evolve over the next twenty years and what might be the impact of various US economic scenarios on the global system? Will the United States have a Japan-like decade or two of anemic growth? If so, would this lead the United States to reduce its foreign involvement and commitments, become more protectionist, and focus on its internal problems? Or will the United States solve its fiscal and debt problems, reinvigorate growth and innovation, and return to sustainable economic growth? Would this underpin a renewed commitment to active US global leadership in mobilizing international cooperation to manage security, economic growth, and global challenges?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Debt, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- United States and North America
233. It's Time to Put the Nuclear Issue Behind Us: The Chicago Summit Has More Urgent Priorities than Nuclear Theology
- Author:
- Kori Schake, Lord Robertson, and Franklin C. Miller
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- Slightly over two years ago, NATO was embroiled in an internal controversy of its own creation which bore within it the seeds of a deep crisis within the Alliance. Several governments, impelled by a heady mix of domestic politics and a newly fashionable interest in nuclear disarmament among certain elites, actively sought the removal of US nuclear weapons from the European portion of the Alliance. In doing so, they raised serious questions about their adherence to the central core of the Alliance: the Article 5 guarantee.
- Topic:
- Security, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Nuclear Weapons
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and North America
234. Transatlantic Nations and Global Security: Pivoting and Partnerships
- Author:
- Franklin D. Kramer
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The new United States defense guidance has substantial implications for transatlantic nations that must be addressed at the NATO Summit in May. Specifically, how does the longstanding transatlantic security bargain apply in this globalized world? What are the key security challenges at this strategic turning point? How should those challenges be met in a time of financial constraint? And what are the key actions the transatlantic nations should undertake?
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, NATO, Science and Technology, and International Security
- Political Geography:
- United States and Asia
235. Arab Awakening: Are the US and EU Missing the Challenge?
- Author:
- Rosa Balfour and Danya Greenfield
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The 2011 wave of uprisings throughout the Middle East and North Africa has prompted policymakers to rethink their approach and bring outdated policies up to speed with a rapidly changing region. To respond to short-term, immediate needs, the United States and EU have made pledges of financial assistance and political support for the Arab countries in transition to stem economic collapse, capitalize on democratic openings and opportunities for growth, and provide incentives to guard against backsliding on reforms.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy and Social Movement
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Arabia, and North Africa
236. Envisioning 2030: US Strategy for a Post-Western World
- Author:
- Robert A. Manning
- Publication Date:
- 12-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Atlantic Council
- Abstract:
- The National Intelligence Council in its new report, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, argues that the historic moment the Obama Administration now confronts “recalls past transition points–such as 1815, 1919, 1945, and 1989–when the path forward was not clear-cut and the world faced the possibility of different global futures.”
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Economics, Globalization, Politics, and Hegemony
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, and Atlantic Ocean
237. Relations With Iraq's Kurds: Toward A Working Partnership
- Author:
- Ramzy Mardini
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Institute for the Study of War
- Abstract:
- Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) President Massoud Barzani will be visiting the White House on April 4 and meeting with President Barack Obama. Discussions are likely to involve Kurdish concerns about Iraq's prime minister, but may largely focus on defining what Vice President Joseph Biden termed as a "special relationship" between the U.S. and Kurds during his visit to Arbil last December. Relations between the governments of the United States and Kurdish Region have grown and deepened considerably since the 2003 U.S.-led military invasion of Iraq. The Kurds continued to be staunch proponents of the American presence and ongoing engagement in Iraq.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Bilateral Relations, Sectarianism, and Sectarian violence
- Political Geography:
- United States, Iraq, and Middle East
238. How to get out of Afghanistan: NATO's withdrawal through Central Asia
- Author:
- Heidi Reisinger
- Publication Date:
- 06-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- NATO's decision to withdraw combat troops from Afghanistan has forced the Alliance to think long and hard about the "how" associated with such a withdrawal. As a result the strategic importance of the five Central Asian states Kazakhstan, Kyrrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, a politically neglected region, mostly seen as a supplier of raw materials and energy, is likely to increase significantly. During the past ten years the ISAF mission has focused its attention on Afghanistan itself. The only neighboring country taken into serious consideration has been Pakistan, as emblematically shown in the US AfPak policy approach. North of Afghanistan, the Central Asian states have been left on the sidelines and their strategic and political role has been underestimated. However, they are now back on the political agenda as an indispensable transit ground.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, NATO, and Natural Resources
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Central Asia, Kazakhstan, Asia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan
239. Romney vs. Obama: what the Atlantic Alliance can expect from the next U.S. President
- Author:
- Patrick Keller
- Publication Date:
- 10-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- NATO Defense College
- Abstract:
- The American President is still the most influential actor in international affairs. Despite the talk of American decline and the evidence of rising powers, despite the new complexities of globalization and the increased relevance of non-state actors, the U.S. President continues to play a special role. As head of the strongest of all national economies, commander in chief of the mightiest armed forces in the history of the world, and leader of the present-day democracy with the oldest constitution, his policies and his bearing shape international politics more than those of any other actor. It is thus understandable that not just the American people but also U.S. allies in NATO and the world at large follow the current presidential campaign with keen interest. Given that the United States is first among equals in the Alliance, strategists in NATO member states have a particular desire to discern the future President's stance on international security affairs because they will need to plan accordingly. However, in contrasting the positions of President Barack Obama and his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, they encounter three basic problems.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Democratization, and Regime Change
- Political Geography:
- United States and America
240. The Transatlantic Bargain
- Author:
- Mark D. Ducasse (ed)
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Book
- Abstract:
- NATO is often described as the most successful military alliance in history. In addition to longevity, those characterizing NATO this way are usually thinking of the Alliance's role in protecting freedom and guaranteeing peace in Europe against a hostile Soviet Union, right until the Iron Curtain fell. NATO's role in ending ethnic cleansing in the Balkans, and in helping to re-integrate Central and Eastern Europe into the mainstream of Europe, only added to this positive image of the Alliance.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, NATO, Diplomacy, International Cooperation, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Soviet Union, and Balkans
241. Rising Tensions in the Eastern Mediterranean: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy
- Author:
- Ebru Oğurlu
- Publication Date:
- 03-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Istituto Affari Internazionali
- Abstract:
- Over the last few years, the Eastern Mediterranean has been increasingly fraught with growing competition between regional players, most notably Turkey, Cyprus, and Israel, signalling an apparent return of power politics in regional relations. Of all actors involved, Turkey stands out for being both an ever more influential power and a source of serious concern to other countries in the region due to its greater assertiveness and perceived hegemonic ambitions. Against the backdrop of recent regional developments and their international implications, including the dispute over drilling rights off Cyprus' coasts, Turkey's image as a constructive and dialogue-oriented country, a critical achievement pursued by a generation of Turkish politicians, diplomats and officials, risks being replaced by one of an antagonistic/assertive power. Facing the first serious challenge to its claim to embody a benign model as a secular Muslim democracy and a responsible international actor, Turkey should not indulge in emotional reactions. It should opt instead for a more moderate and balanced approach based on the assumption that only cooperation and constructive dialogue, even with rival countries, can help it realize its ambition of being the regional pivot.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Democratization, Development, Islam, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Israel, Greece, Asia, Colombia, and Cyprus
242. How Verbal Threats to Close Oil Transit Chokepoints Lead to Military Conflict
- Author:
- John Bowlus
- Publication Date:
- 01-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Global Political Trends Center (GPoT)
- Abstract:
- On December 26, 2011, in response to US, European, and potential Asian sanctions on Iranian oil exports, the government in Tehran issued a threat to “cut off the Strait of Hormuz.” The US Defense Department responded that any blockade of the strait would be met with force. On first read, it is easy to dismiss such saber rattling as another chapter in the new Cold War in the Middle East between Iran and its allies – including Syria, Hamas, and Hezbollah – and the US, Israel, and the Sunni Gulf States, mostly notably Saudi Arabia. Iran has since backed away from its threat, but the event still carries importance because it is unclear how both the US and Iran will continue to respond, particularly as the diplomatic and economic pressures grow more acute while Iran's controversial nuclear program advances. Could such a verbal threat by Iran to cut off the Strait of Hormuzignite a military conflagration in the region? The relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions is well established; however, policymakers and analysts tend to focus on the incidents in which military conflict causes disruptions in oil supplies and sharp increases in prices. The first and most obvious example of this dynamic was the Arab-Israeli War of 1973. The subsequent oil embargo by the Arab members of the Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) against the United States and the Netherlands for their support of Israel caused prices to soar as oil-consuming nations endured supply shortages. The Iranian Revolution from 1978 to 1979 was another event that curtailed Western nations' access to oil and caused prices to spike. When thinking about the relationship between military conflict and oil supply disruptions, however, policymakers and analysts should also recognize that the competition over oil – and even verbal threats to disrupt oil supplies by closing oil transit chokepoints – have either led directly to military conflict or have provided a useful cover under which countries have initiated military conflict. By examining past episodes when countries issued threats to close oil transit chokepoints, this Policy Brief helps illuminate the dangers associated with the current crisis over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Diplomacy, Economics, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Middle East, Asia, and Arabia
243. Using US Strategic Reserves to Moderate Potential Oil Price Increases from Sanctions on Iran
- Author:
- Philip K. Verleger
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Peterson Institute for International Economics
- Abstract:
- The United States has initiated new sanctions against Iran aimed at preventing it from collecting revenue from exports of crude oil. The European Union has followed, embargoing all imports of Iranian crude from July 1, 2012 and preventing any firms from entering into new contracts to import Iranian oil after January 23, 2012. The new US and EU sanctions could be the most draconian in many years. If implemented fully, US sanctions would force trading partners to choose between the United States and Iran. EU sanctions would cut Iran off from an important market. These sanctions, while reducing Iranian income, could pose a very serious economic threat to countries that have significant trade with the United States and/or import significant quantities of oil from Iran.
- Topic:
- Conflict Resolution, Foreign Policy, International Trade and Finance, Markets, Oil, and Sanctions
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Iran, and Middle East
244. Statement
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Journal Article
- Institution:
- Council of American Ambassadors
- Abstract:
- The Council of American Ambassadors is a nonpartisan, professional organization established in 1983 that endeavors to educate the public about policy issues affecting the national interest. It also supports the role of the ambassador and the embassy team in carrying out US foreign policy in countries around the world.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy
- Political Geography:
- United States
245. Fixing Pakistan's Civil-Military Imbalance: A Dangerous Temptation
- Author:
- Moeed Yusuf
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- United States Institute of Peace
- Abstract:
- Out of the proposed alternatives for dealing with Pakistan discussed in Washington, one that seems to have gained some traction calls for aggressively playing up Pakistan's civil-military divide by propping up civilians while dealing harshly with the military and the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). While normatively attractive, the approach to deal with Pakistan as two Pakistans is unworkable. It grossly exaggerates the U.S.'s capacity to affect institutional change in Pakistan and fundamentally misunderstands what underpins the civil-military dynamic. In reality, any attempt by the U.S. to actively exploit this internal disconnect is likely to end up strengthening right wing rhetoric in Pakistan, provide more space for security-centric policies, and further alienate the Pakistani people from the U.S. A more prudent approach would be one that limits itself to targeted interventions in areas truly at the heart of the civil-military dichotomy and that would resonate positively with the Pakistani people: by continuing to help improve civilian governance performance and by providing regional security assurances to Pakistan.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Corruption, Islam, Terrorism, War, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, United States, South Asia, and Washington
246. U.S.-Turkey Relations: A New Partnership
- Author:
- Stephen J. Hadley, Steven A. Cook, and Madeleine Albright
- Publication Date:
- 05-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- Council on Foreign Relations
- Abstract:
- Among the most important developments in international affairs of the past decade is the emergence of Turkey as a rising regional and global power. Turkey has long been an important country as a stalwart member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), an aspirant to European Union (EU) membership, and an important link between the West and the East. Yet the changes in Turkey over the past decade have been so dramatic—with far-reaching political and economic reforms, significant social reforms, and an active foreign policy—that the country is virtually unrecognizable to longtime Turkey watchers. Today Turkey is more democratic, prosperous, and politically influential than it was five, ten, and fifteen years ago.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Political Violence, Democratization, Economics, Human Rights, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, Europe, Central Asia, Turkey, and Middle East
247. India in Afghanistan: A Rising Power or a Hesitant Power?
- Author:
- Harsh Pant
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Working Paper
- Institution:
- Centre for International Peace and Security Studies
- Abstract:
- Indian diplomacy faced a major setback at the Afghanistan Conference in London in January 2010, where Indian concerns were summarily ignored. In one stroke, Pakistan rendered New Delhi irrelevant in the evolving security dynamic in Afghanistan. When Indian External Affairs Minister S.M. Krishna underscored the folly of making a distinction “between good Taliban and bad Taliban,” he was completely out of sync with the larger mood at the conference. Days before this much-hyped conference, senior U.S. military commanders were suggesting that peace talks with the Taliban may be imminent and that Taliban members might even be invited to join the government in Kabul. The West had made up its mind that it was not a question of if, but when and how to exit from Afghanistan, which seemed to be becoming a quagmire for the leaders in Washington and London.
- Topic:
- International Relations, Foreign Policy, Terrorism, War, Power Politics, and Counterinsurgency
- Political Geography:
- Pakistan, Afghanistan, United States, Washington, India, Taliban, London, and New Delhi
248. Reluctant India, Rising China and Alliance Politics in the Asia-Pacific
- Author:
- Yogesh Joshi
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- US President Barack Obama used his 2012 State of the Union speech to explain that evolving geopolitical realities continue to make the United States indispensable in global politics. In the Asia-Pacific this indispensability emanates, in part, from the waves caused by the rise of China. Consequently, demands for an increased US presence echo around the region. In response, the United States has renewed its commitments to Japan, South Korea and Australia, stepped up its relations with Southeast Asia, and reasserted itself as an important player in multilateral institutions including the East Asia Summit, APEC, and ASEAN. Clearly, in the 21st century, US strategic focus has shifted from the Atlantic Ocean to the Pacific and Indian Oceans.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, International Security, and Power Politics
- Political Geography:
- United States, Japan, China, India, South Korea, Australia, and Southeast Asia
249. China-North Korea: Renewal of the "Blood Alliance"
- Author:
- Masako Ikegami
- Publication Date:
- 04-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- As North Korea's latest rocket-missile launch approaches, there is speculation whether Beijing can halt Pyongyang's missile ambitions. In my view, Beijing will turn a blind eye towards North Korea's latest provocation, while simultaneously calling for restraint by all parties. Recently, the China-North Korea “blood alliance,” a concept of allies that originated during the Korean War, has been renewed, and it is in China's interests that North Korea consolidates its “absolute deterrence” capability to deter US forces in the region.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Defense Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Nuclear Weapons, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, and North Korea
250. U.S.-China Competition in Asia: Legacies Help America
- Author:
- Robert Sutter
- Publication Date:
- 02-2012
- Content Type:
- Policy Brief
- Institution:
- East-West Center
- Abstract:
- As Sino-American competition for influence enters a new stage with the Obama administration's re-engagement with Asia, each power's legacies in the region add to economic, military and diplomatic factors determining which power will be more successful in the competition. How the United States and China deal with their respective histories in regional affairs and the role of their non-government relations with the Asia- Pacific represent important legacies that on balance favor the United States.
- Topic:
- Foreign Policy, Arms Control and Proliferation, Diplomacy, Economics, International Trade and Finance, and Bilateral Relations
- Political Geography:
- United States, China, America, and Asia